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1.
The radioisotope compositions, structure, and behavior of “hot” particles under the natural conditions of the Yenisei River in the nearby influence zone of Krasnoyarsk mining and chemical combine were examined in this study. By the composition of gamma-radiating isotopes, all particles are divided into three groups: mono-isotopic, bi-isotopic and poly-isotopic. Mono-isotopic “hot” particles, containing only 60Co were discovered for the first time. Transuranium elements (241Am and 243Cm) were revealed in poly-isotopic particles. Investigation of poly-isotopic particles by means of a scan electron microscope showed that the presence of UO2 together with the lack of activation of 152Eu testifies to the reactor origin of this particle. Experiments showed that in natural conditions “hot” particles under the influence of filtrating water and moisture of pore solutions are gradually dissolved and radionuclides are repeatedly drawn into migration.  相似文献   

2.
Landslides are among the most costly and damaging natural hazards in mountainous regions, triggered mainly under the influence of earthquakes and/or rainfall. In the present study, Landslide Hazard Zonation (LHZ) of Dikrong river basin of Arunachal Pradesh was carried out using Remote Sensing and Geographic Information System (GIS). Various thematic layers namely slope, photo-lineament buffer, thrust buffer, relative relief map, geology and land use / land cover map were generated using remote sensing data and GIS. The weighting-rating system based on the relative importance of various causative factors as derived from remotely sensed data and other thematic maps were used for the LHZ. The different classes of thematic layers were assigned the corresponding rating value as attribute information in the GIS and an “attribute map” was generated for each data layer. Each class within a thematic layer was assigned an ordinal rating from 0 to 9. Summation of these attribute maps were then multiplied by the corresponding weights to yield the Landslide Hazard Index (LHI) for each cell. Using trial and error method the weight-rating values have been re-adjusted. The LHI threshold values used were: 142, 165, 189 and 216. A LHZ map was prepared showing the five zones, namely “very low hazard”, “low hazard”, “moderate hazard”, “high hazard” and “very high hazard” by using the “slicing” operation.  相似文献   

3.
There is growing recognition among political ecologists of the need to examine shifting natural resource regimes and their effects on livelihoods in “First World” places. This emerging literature has variously examined the “Third World within,” the persistence of “subsistence activities” in the “First World,” and the “reterritorialization” of land tenure and access. However, much of this work has tended to focus on traditional extractive industries in the American West, indigenous claims to lands and resources in the U.S. and Canada, and non-timber resources on public lands. In contrast, we use a case study of African-American sweetgrass basket-makers, associated with the Gullah culture, in South Carolina’s lowcountry to examine the ways in which ongoing amenity-driven residential development is fundamentally reshaping resource access on private lands. Historically, basket-makers harvested the materials (primarily sweetgrass or Mulenbergia filipes) needed for their culturally important art form from accessible, rural, and privately held tracts of land in close proximity to their communities, but development pressures and changes in resident interpretation of property rights has decreased access to basket-making resources. The case is particularly illuminating, as it examines the emergence of ‘conservation subdivisions’ in the region and raises important questions about what “rural uses” and users are being conserved through responses to exurban, suburban, and urban development in formerly rural areas.  相似文献   

4.
In this report, we present the situation in Slovenia, Europe with regard to natural hazards, emphasizing land-sliding problems. Furthermore, we shortly present the University of Ljubljana and the Faculty of Civil and Geodetic Engineering as the new member of the ICL that was selected to be the World Center of Excellence on Landslide Risk Reduction for the period of 2008–2013 with the project entitled “Mechanisms of landslides in over-consolidated clays and flysch” in the Activity scale and targeted region as “National.” Some preliminary results of this project are shortly presented at the end.  相似文献   

5.
The geological-geophysical, methological, and economic aspects of extraction and utilization of petrothermal resources (“hot dry rock thermal”) for thermal and electric energy production were considered. Heat collectors are hydraulic fracturing zones of natural or artificially made cracks in the crystalline rocks of the basement; these rocks have higher temperature and can be a kind of “thermal cauldron.” Detection of such “collectors” can be carried out by geophysical methods. When pumped out of wells and warmed to 100–300°C, waters function as a heat transfer for thermal energy supply and electric energy generation. If the technical problem of the rapid drilling of 6–10 km wells could be solved, then petrothermal energy will become competitive with the traditional types of energy production and supply.  相似文献   

6.
The sediment-hosted disseminated gold deposits in the Oinling region are of sedimentation-slight-metamorphic origin superimposed by hydrothermal reworking at moderate-low temperatures and are well comparable with the typical Carlin gold deposits in the United States.In view of the confusing concept concerning the “sediment-hosted”and “Carlin-type” gold deposits,the authors propose that the term“sediment-hosted gold deposit”should be used in a broad sense which encompasses at least the four subtypes,i.e.,the Carlin type,the metamorphic fine clastic type,the hydrothermal sedimentary type and the vein type.In oter words,the “Carlin-type”should not be used as a synonym for “sediment-hosted”but is recommended as a subtype under the general category of “sediment-hosted gold deposits”  相似文献   

7.
Observational evidence proved that even when a borehole is in “fully” stabilized conditions, temperature data may exhibit certain unrest resembling irregular oscillations in the order of hundredths or (in the extreme case) even tenths of degree. Temperature was monitored in complicated hydrogeological conditions in the Yaxcopoil-1 hole (Chicxulub impact structure, Mexico). Two experiments are reported: (a) 20-day monitoring when a logger was located in the center of the high temperature gradient anomaly produced by the cold wave slowly propagating downwards and (b) simultaneous three-loggers 18-day monitoring with loggers located above, in and below the anomaly. All observed temperature–time series displayed intermittent oscillations of temperature with sharp gradients and large fluctuations over all observed time scales. While the “upper” and “lower” records revealed quasi-periodic temperature variations, the “central” record shows fast temperature oscillations with strong up-and-down reversals, all with amplitudes up to a few tenths of degree. The observed temperature–time series were processed by recurrence and recurrence interval quantification as well as by spectral analyses. It is shown that fluid in a borehole, subject to thermal gradient, is stable, as far as the gradient remains below a certain critical value. At higher Rayleigh numbers, the periodic character of oscillations typical for “quiescent” regime is superseded by stochastic features. This “oscillatory” convection occurs due to instability of the horizontal boundary layers. In the specific case of the Yaxcopoil hole, the time series above and below the cold wave (characterized by relatively lower temperature gradients between 20 and 50 mK/m) contain a clear low frequency component produced by tidal forcing. This component dominates over the high frequency domain (periods from 10–15 to 1 min), which exhibit a scaling behavior. This pattern conspicuously changes in the center part of the cold wave, where the local temperature gradient exceeds 200 mK/m and where tidal forcing composes only ~3% of the signal.  相似文献   

8.
Since 1975, Europe sets up its policy to limit the degradation and the pollution of the aquatic environments through 30 directives and regulations. In the north of France, the nitrate concentrations measured in the groundwater exceed the water drinking limit fixed at 50 mg/L by the European framework directive in the field of water (2000/60/EC). This high concentration is due to intensive agriculture, industrialization and demographic growth. Several programs were launched in order to resolve this situation: “Ferti-better” or the use of fertilizer in moderation and installation and amelioration of wastewater collect and treatment systems. In order to estimate the influence of the anthropic activities on the quality of groundwater in the “Artois-Picardy” basin, a preliminary validation on parcel and district scale were necessary. The impact of these programs in the “Cambrai district” was evaluated using an integrated approach, which is based on the use of four numerical models: AgriFlux, VS2DT, Modflow and MT3D. The results illustrate an improvement due to the “Ferti-Better” program initiated in 1990 and punctual degradation under urbanized areas. Predictions (2015) show a spatial evolution of nitrates concentration varying with the thickness of unsaturated layer. The integrated model constitutes an efficient tool for predicting the evolution of the groundwater quality. This approach is important to control the application of the new European laws in the water field.  相似文献   

9.
For many migrants from Latin America, “Hispanic/Latino(a)” is an identity that they encounter in the United States with which they were unfamiliar in their home countries and must negotiate in their everyday lives in a new context. Specifically, immigrants from Central America are unlikely to see themselves as “Hispanic” or “Latino(a)” prior to living in the United States, more often identifying with their home country, city, town, village, or neighborhood. This paper draws on racialization theory and twenty-seven in-depth interviews with Central American immigrants in Atlanta, GA to examine this process of identity negotiation across the traditionally black/white racialized landscapes of a “New South” city. Interview participants adopt a racialized Hispanic identity through a complex process involving the interplay between how they think of themselves and their perceptions of how native-born Atlantans view them. The interview analysis presented herein demonstrates that although Central American immigrants actively negotiate a Hispanic racialized moniker, they do so within an urban context dominated by native-born residents whose racialized assumptions lump Spanish-speaking, brown skinned individuals into a monolithic “Mexican” category. Thus the ways in which racialized difference is constructed in contemporary Atlanta for recent Central American immigrants is very much bound up in such false presumptions of national identity and cultural group belonging.  相似文献   

10.
The seasonal variation in the trace metals’ concentrations (Cd, Co, Cu, Fe, Mn, Ni, Pb, and Zn) were investigated in surface sediments of the Pandoh Lake. The horizontal distribution of TC, TN, and TP reflects spatial and temporal differences in sedimentary organic production. The chemical sequential extraction of heavy metals was carried out by seven-step fractionation scheme (Leleyter and Probst in Int J Environ Chem 73:109–128, 1999). The significant concentrations of Ni and Cd were associated with “water soluble (Eua)” fraction in the monsoon and winter, respectively, while “exchangeable (Exch)” and “carbonate-bound (Carb)” fractions for Ni and Cd were abundant in winter and summer. The Cd, Cu, and Pb associated with “Exch” fraction in the summer season support their availability on exchange sites due to oxidized nature of surface sediments. Enrichment of Co, Fe, Mn, and Zn in “AFeO” fraction showed poor bioavailability, while Cd, Cu, and Mn in the monsoon, Co in the winter and summer, and Zn in the winter season showed significant “organically bound (Org)” fraction. The ANOVA was significant for chemical fractions of trace elements except “Carb” fraction of Pb and Zn and “CFeO” fraction of Pb. Factor analysis revealed that the “Eua”, “Exch”, and “Carb” fractions together control the metal enrichment of “MnO”, “AFeO”, and “CFeO” fractions in the summer season.  相似文献   

11.
Chromatographic and electrochemical measurements, combined with computer simulation of the natural mineral parageneses and estimation of the stability field of muscovite-bearing assemblages, yielded a consistent model of the fluid regime for the amphibolite-facies metamorphism of the Dzhugdzhur-Stanovoy fold area (DSFA). The model allows the fluid differentiation into “internal” and “external” fluids. The “internal” fluid is formed by the volatiles of the rock, while the “external” fluid arrived from an outer source: the mantle or other reservoir. It is established that the chromatographic and electrochemical measurements refer to the “external” fluid, whereas the redox state estimated from the mineral equilibria is related to the “internal” fluid, whose composition is buffered by the equilibrium mineral assemblage. The “external” fluid trapped by rocks preserves its own redox state only at the regtrograde stage, when the solid-phase reactions slacken and the buffer role of the mineral assemblages is minimized. This aspect explains the contradiction between the wide variations in the oxidation state of the mineral equilibria (log fO2 from ?15 to ?20), on the one hand, and the persistent oxidation state of the external fluid established by the chromatographic and electrochemical methods, on the other hand. The main reason for the wide development of hornblende-bearing assemblages in the amphibolite-facies metamorphic rocks of the Dzhugdzhur-Stanovoy fold system is the high H2O pressure in the “external” fluid. According to the obtained data, the composition of the “external” fluid is determined by the conditions $ P_{H_2 O} Chromatographic and electrochemical measurements, combined with computer simulation of the natural mineral parageneses and estimation of the stability field of muscovite-bearing assemblages, yielded a consistent model of the fluid regime for the amphibolite-facies metamorphism of the Dzhugdzhur-Stanovoy fold area (DSFA). The model allows the fluid differentiation into “internal” and “external” fluids. The “internal” fluid is formed by the volatiles of the rock, while the “external” fluid arrived from an outer source: the mantle or other reservoir. It is established that the chromatographic and electrochemical measurements refer to the “external” fluid, whereas the redox state estimated from the mineral equilibria is related to the “internal” fluid, whose composition is buffered by the equilibrium mineral assemblage. The “external” fluid trapped by rocks preserves its own redox state only at the regtrograde stage, when the solid-phase reactions slacken and the buffer role of the mineral assemblages is minimized. This aspect explains the contradiction between the wide variations in the oxidation state of the mineral equilibria (log fO2 from −15 to −20), on the one hand, and the persistent oxidation state of the external fluid established by the chromatographic and electrochemical methods, on the other hand. The main reason for the wide development of hornblende-bearing assemblages in the amphibolite-facies metamorphic rocks of the Dzhugdzhur-Stanovoy fold system is the high H2O pressure in the “external” fluid. According to the obtained data, the composition of the “external” fluid is determined by the conditions ≥ 0.7 PS and = 0.01–0.3. The oxidation potential of the “external” fluid is close to that of the H2O-C system under carbon-saturated vapor conditions. Original Russian Text ? O.V. Avchenko, I.A. Aleksandrov, V.O. Khudolozhkin, M.A. Mishkin, 2009, published in Tikhookeanskaya Geologiya, 2009, Vol. 28, No. 4, pp. 3–15.  相似文献   

12.
Very important initiatives have been taken and policies have been adopted in the European Union to protect areas of great importance for threatened species and habitats. Protected areas differ broadly in terms of category, natural conditions and administrative organisation, from international initiative such as Biosphere Reserves, European ones with Natura 2000 network until the institution of national and regional protected areas. In France, the administrative subdivisions known as “départements” were created with the French Revolution in the end of the eighteenth century; in 1985 an original and autonomous procedure to establish special protected areas, called “Sensitive Natural Spaces” (SNS) was devolved to them. The scope of this paper is to present an overview of these devolved powers which enable French départements to create protected areas and to levy a departmental tax on sensitive natural spaces (DTSNS). We statistically studied some parameters by multivariate methods in order to explain the choices of this policy by the départements. The huge variations in the way these powers are implemented prove the development of new environmental territories.  相似文献   

13.
Summary ?Results of experimental investigations in the dry system PtS-PdS-NiS at 1100°C, 1000°C, and 900°C are presented. The phases observed at 1100°C are “cooperite” and a melt, at 1000°C “cooperite”, “braggite”, and a melt and at 900°C “cooperite”, “braggite”, “vysotskite”, Ni1−xS, and a melt. At 1100°C the maximum solubility of Ni in ideal, Pd-free “cooperite” is 2.7 atomic per cent and the Pd-content limit in Ni-free “cooperite” is 12.8 atomic per cent. At 1000°C the maximum solubility of Ni in ideal, Pd-free “cooperite” is 3.3 atomic per cent and the Pd-content in Ni-free “cooperite” is 13.7 atomic per cent. The “braggite” composition ranges from Pt0.56Pd0.38Ni0.06S and Pt0.59Pd0.41S in a Ni-saturated and Ni-free environment respectively to Pt0.18Pd0.80Ni0.02S and Pt0.14Pd0.86S respectively. At 900°C the maximum Ni-content in ideal Pd-free “cooperite” is 3.1 atomic per cent and the Pd-limit in Ni-free “cooperite” is 12.5 atomic per cent. The “braggite” composition ranges from Pt0.59Pd0.29Ni0.12S and Pt0.60Pd0.40S for a Ni-saturated and Ni-free environment respectively, to Pd0.91Ni0.09S and PdS respectively. The Ni-content in “braggite” and “vysotskite” increases slightly with increasing Pt/Pd ratios and is higher at 900°C than at 1000°C. Comparison of experimental trends with cooperite, braggite, and vysotskite analyses from the literature implies high temperatures of formation for Pt-Pd-Ni sulphides in placers if Ni-saturation is assumed.
Zusammenfassung ?Synthetischer ,,Cooperit”, ,,Braggit” und “Vysotskit” im System PtS-PdS-NiS bei 1100°C, 1000°C und 900°C Ergebnisse experimenteller Untersuchungen im trockenen System PtS-PdS-NiS bei 1100°C, 1000°C und 900°C werden dargestellt. Bei 1100°C sind die Phasen “Cooperit” und Schmelze, bei 1000°C “Cooperit”, “Braggit” und Schmelze und bei 900°C “Cooperit”, “Braggit”, “Vysotskit”, Ni1−xS und Schmelze stabil. Bei 1100°C ist die maximale L?slichkeit von Ni in idealem, Pd-freiem “Cooperit” 2.7 Atomprozent und der Pd-Gehalt in Ni-freien “Cooperit” liegt bei maximal 12.8 Atomprozent. Bei 1000°C ist die maximale L?slichkeit von Ni in idealem, Pd-freien “Cooperit” 3.3 Atomprozent und der Pd-Gehalt in Ni-freien “Cooperit” liegt bei maximal 13.7 Atomprozent. Die Zusammensetzung des “Braggits” variiert zwischen Pt0.56Pd0.38Ni0.06S und Pt0.18Pd0.80Ni0.02S in einem Ni-ges?ttigtem und zwischen Pt0.59Pd0.41S und Pt0.14Pd0.86S in einem Ni-freien Umfeld. Bei 900°C liegt die maximale L?slichkeit von Ni in idealem Pd-freien “Cooperit” bei 3.1 Atomprozent und der Pd-Gehalt in Ni-freien “Cooperit” liegt bei maximal 12.5 Atomprozent. Die Zusammensetzung des “Braggits” variiert zwischen Pt0.59Pd0.29Ni0.12S und Pd0.89Ni0.08S in einem Ni-ges?ttigten und zwischen Pt0.59Pd0.40S und PdS in einem Ni-freien Umfeld. Der Nickelgehalt in “Braggit” und “Vysotskit” nimmt mit zunehmendem Pt/Pd Verh?ltnis zu und ist bei 900°C h?her als bei 1000°C. Ein Vergleich der experimentellen Trends mit Cooperit, Braggit und Vysotskit Analysen aus der Literatur weist auf eine Hochtemperaturbildung der Pt-Pd-Ni Sulfide in Seifenlagerst?tten hin, wenn man von Nickels?ttigung ausgeht.


Received October 1, 1998;/revised version accepted September 7, 1999  相似文献   

14.
Laguerre  Michel S. 《GeoJournal》2005,64(1):41-49
This paper briefly reviews the sociological literature on the “New” Chinatown phenomenon stressing its structural location vis-à-vis the “Old” Chinatown and the homeland. It defines the New Chinatown as a panethnopolis, that is a global neighborhood with a majority population of Chinese immigrants and of other ethnic groups of mostly Asian descent. It analyzes more particularly the formation, development, and integration of San Francisco’s Richmond District’s New Chinatown into both the city where it is located and the network of transglobal sites to which it belongs. It provides an interpretation of the New Chinatown as a cultural enclave within the context of globalization theory.  相似文献   

15.
Entropies of Al-Si in layer silicates have been calculated using a series of CVM approximations for the honeycomb lattice. The parameters of the models have been constrained by 29Si NMR data. The results of low order approximations such as “pair” and “star” have been rejected because of their low accuracy at high Al/(Al+Si) ratios. Reasonably accurate results have been achieved with the help of the “hexagon” and “star-hexagon” approximations. Received: 31 October 1997 / Revised, accepted: 17 April 1998  相似文献   

16.
During the late Early Cretaceous, the shallow-water domains of the western Tethys are characterized by the widespread deposition of Urgonian-type carbonates rich in rudists, corals and other oligotrophic, shallow-marine organisms. In the Helvetic Alps, the Urgonian occurrences have been dated by ammonite biostratigraphy as Late Barremian and Early Aptian. For the more proximal occurrences in the western Swiss Jura, a recent age model based on bio-, chemo- and sequence stratigraphy has been proposed, which allows for an improved correlation with the Helvetic counterparts. In order to corroborate the recently proposed age model for the Jura, a set of well-preserved rhynchonellids collected from five different lithostratigraphical formations and members (“Marnes bleues d’Hauterive”, “Marnes d’Uttins”, basal marly layers within the “Urgonien Jaune”, “Marnes de la Russille”, “Urgonien Blanc”) has been analysed for its strontium–isotope ratios (87Sr/86Sr). In addition, K–Ar dating was performed on well-preserved glauconite grains from two different levels (“Marnes d’Uttins” and a basal layer within the “Urgonien Jaune”). The correlation of the Sr–isotope data set with a belemnite-based, ammonite-calibrated reference curve provides an age model which is coherent with recently published ages based on calcareous nannofossil biostratigraphy and the correlation of trends in chemo- and sequence stratigraphy. K–Ar dating on well-preserved glauconite grains from the “Marnes d’Uttins” and lowermost part of the “Urgonien Jaune” delivered ages of 127.5 ± 2.3 and 130.7 ± 2.6 Ma, respectively. Whereas the age of the glauconitic level near the base of the “Urgonien Jaune” is chronostratigraphically meaningful, the K–Ar age of the “Marnes d’Uttins” appears too young relative to the presently used time scale. This may be related to rejuvenation of the K–Ar chronometer due to post-depositional Ar loss, most likely during hardground formation. The ages obtained here confirm the Late Barremian age for the onset of the Urgonian platform, an age which is conform with ages obtained in the Helvetic Alps and elsewhere along the northern Tethyan margin.  相似文献   

17.
On the right-hand bank of the Volkhov River, in the natural area of tektite-like glasses (Volkhovites), fragments of shungites and slags with bunches of hairlike dark brownish enclosures were found. The filament thickness ranged from 20 to 100 μm, and separate “hairlines” were 3 cm in length. The composition of shungites and “hairlines” was found to be identical, which allowed us to consider the latter as aposhungite carbon formations. The high-carbon hairline structures associated with volkhovites are called kirishites. Kirishites are a new type of high-carbon structures that formed simultaneously with volkhovites in the case of explosion-type delivery of carbon slag and shungite fragments to the daylight surface during Holocene explosive activity. Under sharply reductive conditions, the slags partially melted, the melts were segregated, and carbonaceous-silicate and carbonaceous-ferriferous glasses formed with subsequent decompression-explosive liberation of carbon-supersaturated structures, which were extruded from shungite and slag fragments in the form of a resinoid mass. The “hairlines” were found to be zonal in structure: the central axial zones are composed of high-nitrogen hydrocarbon compounds, and peripheral regions are essentially carbonaceous with a high content of organic-mineral compounds and numerous microanomalies of petrogenic, volatile, rare, and ore elements. Infrared spectroscopy identified in kirishites proteinlike compounds, diagnosed in absorption bands (in cm−1) 600–720 (Amid V), 1200–1300 (Amid III), 1480–1590 (Amid II), 1600–1700 (Amid I), 3000–3800 (vibrations in NH2 and II groups). Gas chromatography, with the possibility of differentiation of left- and right-handed forms, revealed a broad spectrum of amino acids in kirishites, with their total content found to be the absolutely highest record for natural bitumens, an order of magnitude higher than the largest amino acid concentrations ever revealed in fibrous high-structured kerite crystals from Volyn pegmatites and in Transbaikalia phyto fulgurates. Like in phytofulgurites and fibrous kerites, in kirishites the amino acids are abiogenic, and they are predominately left-handed in configuration, contrary to the commonly accepted view about the exclusively biological nature of left-handed amino acids and their natural abiological thermofusion. Kirishites can be considered as models of prebiotic systems, predecessors of the simplest living organisms. This process could be favored by extreme conditions with rapid variations of temperature and pressure. Further study of kirishites and construction of a kirishite formation model will also be useful for development of the conception of endogenous ore-naphtobiogenesis.  相似文献   

18.
The grain size and element (including redox sensitive elements and terrigenous elements) concentration of surface sediments from the Changjiang Estuary hypoxia zone and its adjacent sea area were measured in this research. Based on the obtained data, the hypoxic environment’s influence on the distribution of elements in surface sediments was further studied. We believe that the “redox environment effect” greatly influences the distribution of the RSE, which reveals the “patchy enrichment pattern” offshore in the hypoxia zone, while the distribution of the terrigenous elements which shows the “stripped enrichment pattern” near shore is mainly affected by “granularity effects”. Due to the existence of the hypoxia zone of the Changjiang Estuary, the distribution of the RSE such as Mo, Cd and V in the study area exhibits the characteristics of “redox environment effects”. __________ Translated from Marine Geology & Quaternary Geology, 2007, 27(3):1–8 [译自: 海洋地质与第四纪地质]  相似文献   

19.
20.
This paper demonstrates techniques for pre-eruption prediction of lahar-inundation zones in areas where a volcano has not erupted within living memory and/or where baseline geological information about past lahars could be scarce or investigations to delimit past lahars might be incomplete. A lahar source (or proximal lahar-inundation) zone is predicted based on ratio of vertical descent to horizontal run-out of eruptive deposits that spawn lahars. Immediate post-eruption distal lahar-inundation zones are predicted based on “pre-eruption” distal lahar-inundation zones and on spatial factors derived from a digital elevation model. Susceptibility to distal lahar-inundation is estimated by weights-of-evidence, by logistic regression and by evidential belief functions. Predictive techniques are applied using a geographic information system and are tested in western part of Pinatubo volcano (Philippines). Predictive maps are compared with a forecast volcanic-hazard map through validation against a field-based volcanic-hazard map. The predictive model of proximal lahar-inundation zone has “true positive” prediction accuracy, “true negative” prediction accuracy, “false positive” prediction error and “false negative” prediction error that are similar to those of the forecast volcanic-hazard map. The predictive models of distal lahar inundation zones have higher “true positive” prediction accuracy and lower “false negative” prediction error than the forecast volcanic-hazard map, although the latter has higher “true negative” prediction accuracy and lower “false positive” prediction error than the former. The results illustrate utility of proposed predictive techniques in providing geo-information could be used, howbeit with caution, for planning to mitigate potential lahar hazards well ahead of an eruption that could generate substantial source materials for lahar formation.  相似文献   

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