A study on precursors leading to geomagnetic storms using artificial neural network

Space weather prediction involves advance forecasting of the magnitude and onset time of major geomagnetic storms on Earth. In this paper, we discuss the development of an artificial neural network-based model to study the precursor leading to intense and moderate geomagnetic storms, following halo coronal mass ejection (CME) and related interplanetary (IP) events. IP inputs were considered within a 5-day time window after the commencement of storm. The artificial neural network (ANN) model training, testing and validation datasets were constructed based on 110 halo CMEs (both full and partial halo and their properties) observed during the ascending phase of the 24th solar cycle between 2009 and 2014. The geomagnetic storm occurrence rate from halo CMEs is estimated at a probability of 79%, by this model.     

Large wood transport modelling by a coupled Eulerian–Lagrangian approach

The fractal characteristics of the ultra-low-frequency (ULF) magnetic field variations recorded prior to the Tohoku earthquake (EQ) with M _W = 9 which happened on 11 March 2011 are studied in this article with the use of detrended fluctuation analysis and Higuchi fractal dimension algorithm. In the specific study, we use for our calculations only nighttime (LT = 3 a.m. ± 2 h) data because of their lowest contamination by industrial noise. A key aspect of our analysis is the investigation about any possible correlation of the ULF magnetic field variations or their calculated fractal characteristics with geomagnetic indices. Different preprocessing approaches are examined aiming at the minimization of any possible influences from global phenomena in the fractal analysis results, while in the same time retaining the scale-invariant character of ULF magnetic field variations after preprocessing. The obtained fractal analysis results imply locally driven change in the fractal characteristics of the ULF data prior to the Tohoku EQ, which is compatible with the change that has been reported prior to other large EQs.     

Bursts of Geomagnetic Pulsations and Night Atmosphere Airglow Caused by Solar Wind Pressure Changes During a Magnetospheric Storm

Doklady Earth Sciences - The dynamics of geomagnetic disturbances and optical airglow at mid-latitude observatories near Irkutsk during a strong magnetospheric storm in the night sector on October...     

Multidimensional scaling technique for analysis of magnetic storms at Indian observatories

Multidimensional scaling is a powerful technique for analysis of data. The latitudinal dependence of geomagnetic field variation in horizontal component (H) during magnetic storms is analysed in this paper by employing this technique.     

Equatorial electrojet in the Indian region during the geomagnetic storm of 13–14 November 1998

The geomagnetic storm of November 1998 is a unique event where IMF-Bz remained southward with values exceeding –15 nT for more than a day. The SYM/H index decreased from about 07 hr on 13 November 1998 reaching a minimum of about –120 nT around midnight of 13–14 November 1998. Features of the equatorial electrojet in the Indian region are studied during the geomagnetic storm event of 13–14 November 1998, based on the geomagnetic data from the chain of observatories in India. Sudden northward turning of IMF-Bz for a very short duration around 08 hr on 13 November 1998 resulted in a small and very short duration counter electrojet. A strong (–50 nT) and a long duration counter electrojet, right from 08 to 13 hr on 14 November 1998 was observed resulting in the absence of equatorial Es at Thumba. Absence of the equatorial ionization anomaly was also observed as seen from the ionograms over Thumba and ionspheric data from Ahmedabad. The delayed effect on 14 November 1998 is due to the disturbance dynamo effect.     

Corotating and Propagating Disturbances in the Solar Wind Based on Monitoring of Interplanetary Scintillations at the LPA Radio Telescope of the Lebedev Physical Institute in 2017

Monitoring of interplanetary scintillations in 2017 is used as a basis for analyzing the dynamics of scintillation levels in periods preceding the arrival at the Earth of eight large-scale disturbances in the solar wind giving rise to strong geomagnetic storms. In six of the eight events, the dynamics of the scintillation level were mainly determined by the motion of corotating disturbances. In two events, coronal-mass ejections excited in the corona near the western limb of the Sun were observed against the background of corotating disturbances. In one of these cases, a magnetic storm was associated with a corotating flux, and in the other with a powerful propagating disturbance. Comparison with similar data obtained in 2016, also during the descending phase in solar activity, testifies to the existence of corotating disturbances with lifetimes of at least 20 solar rotations. These new results support the earlier conclusion that a weakening of scintillations is observed in the evening sector three to four days before the arrival of the compressed part of a disturbance to the Earth, which could be due to an appreciable lowering of the level of small-scale turbulence in the plasma in an extended region ahead of the frontal part of the disturbance. The interplanetary-scintillation monitoring data for 2017 show that, simultaneously with the associated magnetic storm, there is an enhancement of second-time-scale scintillations, which are most clearly manifest when the storm occurs during the evening or night-time hours. For the events considered, the increase in scintillations accompanying the magnetic storm is associated with an enhancement in the level of small-scale fluctuations in regions of the solar wind adjacent to the Earth when the storm is excited by a corotating disturbance, and with the perturbed ionosphere when the storm is excited by a flare-related disturbance.     

An interpretation of induced magnetic variations near Shillong and Gulmarg

Short-period events such as bays and storm sudden commencements (SSCs) have been analysed to investigate the nature of induced magnetic variations at two Indian magnetic observatories: Shillong and Gulmarg. It seems that near Gulmarg there is obvious connection between the induced magnetic variations and the two large scale features; the main central thrust (MCT) and the main boundary fault (MBF) in the north-west direction. The Dauki fault, an approximately east-west conductor, seems to be responsible for the conductivity anomalies at SHL.     

RETRACTED ARTICLE: Space and time distributions of major winter storms in the United States

Winter storms are a major weather problem in the United States and their losses have been rapidly increasing. A total of 202 catastrophic winter storms involving ice storms, blizzards, and snowstorms, each causing >$5 million in damages, occurred during 1949–2003, and their losses totaled $35.2 billion (2003 dollars). Catastrophic winter storms occurred in most parts of the contiguous United States, but were concentrated in the eastern half of the nation where 88% of all storm losses occurred. They were most frequent in the Northeast climate district (95 storms), and were least frequent in the West district (14 catastrophic storms). The annual average number of storms is 3.7 with a 1-year high of nine storms, and one year had no storms. Temporal distributions of storms and their losses exhibited considerable spatial variability across the nation. For example, when storms were very frequent in the Northeast, they were infrequent elsewhere, a result of spatial differences in storm-producing weather conditions over time. The time distribution of the nation’s 202 storms during 1949–2003 had a sizable downward trend, whereas the nation’s storm losses had a major upward trend for the 55-year period. This increase over time in losses, given the decrease in storm incidences, was a result of significant temporal increases in storm sizes and storm intensities. Increases in storm intensities were small in the northern sections of the nation, but doubled across the southern two-thirds of the nation, reflecting a climatic shift in conditions producing intense winter storms.     

Meteotsunamis in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico and their possible link to El Niño Southern Oscillation

Analysis of 20-year time series of water levels in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico has revealed that meteotsunamis are ubiquitous in this region. On average, 1–3 meteotsunamis with wave heights >0.5 m occur each year in this area. The probability of meteotsunami occurrence is highest during March–April and June–August. Meteotsunamis in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico can be triggered by winter and summer extra-tropical storms and by tropical cyclones. In northwestern Florida most of the events are triggered by winter storms, while in west and southwest Florida they appear both in winter and summer. Atmospheric pressure and wind anomalies (periods <6 h) associated with the passage of squalls originated the majority of the observed meteotsunami events. The most intense meteotsunamigenic periods took place during El Niño periods (1997–1998, 2009–2010 and 2015–2016). Meteotsunamis were also active in 2005, a year characterized by exceptionally intense tropical cyclone activity. Meteotsunami incidence varied yearly and at periods between 2 and 5 years. Results from cross-wavelet analysis suggested that El Niño and meteotsunami activity are correlated at annual and longer-period bands.     

Natural and man-made influences on suicides in northwestern Russia

Our main aim was to identify the impacts of natural (solar activity, geomagnetic disturbances) and man-made factors on suicides in northwestern Russia. Data on a total of 908 suicides in the town of Kirovsk (Murmansk oblast) were analyzed for the period from 1948 to 2010. The rates of suicides were analyzed with respect to seasons of the year. We have identified three maxima in the seasonal distribution of the number of suicides [March–May (P < 0.001), July (P = 0.006), October (P < 0.001)], which coincide with maxima in the distribution of the most intense (Ap > 150 nT) magnetic storms. Multi-taper method-spectrum analysis revealed periodicities (~9–10 and ~25 years) which may be related to the main cycles of solar activity. The periods of ~3.1–3.5 and ~2–2.3 years are probably the third and the fifth harmonics of 11-year solar cycle, respectively. These periods are correlating with similar periodic variations in geomagnetic aa-indexes and meteorological parameters. It was determined the statistically significant (r = 0.8; P = 0.005) relationship between suicide and Cu emissions from Cu–Ni smelters of Russian North for the period 1997–2009.     

Hummocky cross-stratification, tropical hurricanes, and intense winter storms

Most previous workers have inferred a storm origin for hummocky cross-stratification, which typically occurs in shallow-marine deposits. On the modern Earth, the only storms capable of profoundly affecting shallow-marine depositional environments are severe tropical cyclones (hurricanes) and mid-latitude winter wave cyclones (intense winter storms). This paper examines the palaeogeographic distribution (including palaeolatitude and palaeogeographic setting) of 107 occurrences of hummocky cross-stratification, ranging in age from the Proterozoic to Recent. In each of these stratigraphic units, both palaeolatitude and palaeogeography are consistent with a direct storm influence (associated with the passage of hurricanes or winter storms directly over the site of deposition). This palaeogeographic evidence lends support to the inferred storm origin for hummocky cross-stratification; further, the distribution of the structure suggests that most occurrences (73%) were generated by tropical hurricanes, the remaining 27% being generated by intense mid-latitude winter storms. The preferential generation of hummocky cross-stratification by hurricanes is consistent with: (1) the known differences in the nature of the bottom flows generated by the two major storm types, and (2) the inferred nature of the flows which form hummocky cross-stratification. Hurricanes couple less effectively with the water column than do intense winter storms. Due to this ineffective coupling, hurricane-generated bottom flows tend to be oscillatory-or multidirectional-dominant, with only minor unidirectional components of motion. In contrast, intense winter storms generally do couple effectively with the water column, generating bottom flows which possess a dominant or significant unidirectional component. Most previous workers have suggested that hummocky cross-stratification forms under oscillatory- or multidirectional-dominant flow; thus, it is conceptually reasonable that the vast majority of ancient occurrences of hummocky cross-stratification were probably hurricane-generated, as suggested by the aforementioned palaeogeographic distribution. The Proterozoic, Palaeozoic, Neogene, and Quaternary were times when global climate was similar to that of today. The distribution of hummocky cross-stratification deposited during these times suggests that both hurricanes and intense winter storms occupied latitudinal belts during these times which were essentially identical to those occupied by their modern counterparts. The Mesozoic and Palaeogene were non-glacial times when global climate was much warmer than that of today. The distribution of hummocky cross-stratification deposited during this interval suggests that hurricanes occurred more frequently at higher latitudes during non-glacial times than they do at present. The possibility of a broadened hurricane belt during the Mesozoic and Palaeogene is consistent with climatic considerations. A limited number of Mesozoic and Palaeogene rock units containing hummocky cross-stratification were deposited in palaeogeographic settings that preclude a direct hurricane influence; these examples were deposited in the middle latitudes, suggesting that intense winter storms continued to form hummocky cross-stratification in the middle latitudes during these much warmer times. Some previous workers have suggested that tsunamis may be capable of generating hummocky cross-stratification. The palaeogeographic distribution of the structure does not support an origin due to tsunamis. Lacustrine examples of hummocky cross-stratification reported herein are the first known non-marine occurrences; they suggest that storm effects strongly influence the sedimentary record of some lakes.     

Nonlocal response functions in processing global electromagnetic data

We discuss approaches to mapping lateral apparent conductivity variations at different periods from magnetic observatory data using multipoint transfer operators as nonlocal functions of the EM response. The multipoint operators provide correlation of three magnetic field components recorded at all observatories. The inversion procedure was applied to S_q observatory data for 1964–68 and records of 30 magnetic storms for 1957–2001. To obtain lateral conductivity patterns, data on diurnal S_q variations and global magnetic storms were processed with the spherical harmonic analysis. The same data were used to estimate the coefficients of first harmonics in the SH series of diurnal lateral variations of Earth's apparent conductivity.     

Space weather hazards and their impact on human cardio-health state parameters on Earth

Recent multi-disciplinary heliobiological and biometeorological researches reveal that the human organism is sensitive to environmental physical activity changes and reacts to them through variations of the physiological parameters of the human body. In this study, electrocardiograms of functionally healthy persons, who were digitally registered at the Laboratory of Heliobiology located in the Medical Centre INAM (Baku, Azerbaijan), were studied in relation to different levels of cosmic ray activity and geomagnetic field disturbances. In total, 1,673 daily digital data of heart rate values and time series of beat-to-beat heart rate intervals (RR intervals) were registered for the time period July 15, 2006?CMarch 31, 2008, which includes the period of December 2006, when intense cosmic ray events and strong geomagnetic disturbances occurred. The statistical significance of the influence of geomagnetic activity levels and cosmic ray intensity variations on heart rate and RR intervals was estimated. Results revealed that heart rate increase and RR intervals variations were more pronounced for high levels of geomagnetic activity and large cosmic ray intensity decreases, whereas very small or even minimum cosmic ray intensity variations did not affect heart rate dynamics. Moreover, heart rate increased on the days before, during and after geomagnetic storms with high intensities and on the days preceding, and following cosmic ray intensity decreases.     

Possible contribution of lower mantle magnesiowüstite metallization into geomagnetic data

Phase change of dielectric magnesiowüstite in the lower mantle may leave signatures in geomagnetic records of the globally distributed array of observatories. We investigate theoretically which may be the contribution of magnesiowüstite metallization to geomagnetic data and how the variations of magnetic susceptibility associated with this phase change may influence the Earth's field. The modeling is performed using spherical harmonic analysis (SHA) of mantle electromagnetic (EM) responses in observatory geomagnetic data at periods of decades, 11 years, 1 year, and 27 days. The existence of a lower mantle conductor is checked against monthly means of real observatory records from 1920 through 2009 obtained by preliminary processing.     

A Spatial and Temporal Analysis of Damaging Snowstorms in the United States

Records of very damaging snowstorms, those causing more than $25 million in property losses, across the United States were assessed to define the spatial and temporal dimensions of the nation’s snowstorm activity during 1949–2000. In this 52-year period 155 snowstorms occurred and caused losses totaling $21.6 billion (2000 dollars). The northeastern U.S. had the nation’s maximum storm occurrences (79 storms), total losses ($7.3 billion), and storm intensity. Two-thirds of all U.S. losses occurred in the Northeast, Southeast, and Central climate regions, and storm occurrences and losses were least in the western U.S. The incidence of storms peaked in the 1976–1985 period and exhibited no up or down trend during 1949–2000. However, national losses had a significant upward time trend, as did storm sizes and intensity. States with the greatest number of storms were New York (62) and Pennsylvania (58) with only 2 storms in Montana, Idaho, and Utah. Storm losses in the northeastern and southeastern U.S. had U-shaped time distributions with flat time trends for 1949–2000, but losses in the western regions and Deep South had distinct upward trends in losses and storm size. More than 90% of all storm losses in the western U.S. occurred after 1980. These findings indicating increased losses over time reflect that a rapidly growing population and vulnerability of more property at risk have been major factors affecting losses, and the lack of a change over time in snowstorm incidences suggests no change in climate during 1949–2000.     

Modeling the impact of land reclamation on storm surges in Bohai Sea,China

A nested model for the simulation of tides and storm surges in the Bohai Sea, China, has been developed based on the three-dimensional finite-volume coastal ocean model. The larger domain covers the entire Yellow Sea and Bohai Sea with a horizontal resolution of ~10 km, and the smaller domain focuses on the Bohai Sea with a fine resolution up to ~300 m. For the four representative storm surges caused by extratropical storms and typhoons, the simulated surge heights are in good agreement with observations at coastal tide gauges. A series of sensitivity experiments are carried out to assess the influence of coastline change due to land reclamation in recent decades on water levels during storm surges. Simulation results suggest that changes in coastline cause changes in the amplitude and phase of the tidal elevation, and fluctuations of surge height after the peak stage of the storm surges. Hence, for the assessment of the influence of coastline changes on the total water level during storm surges, the amplitudes and phases of both the tidal and surge heights need to be taken into account. For the three major ports in the Bohai Bay, model results suggest that land reclamation has created a coastline structure that favors increasing the maximum water level by 0.1–0.2 m. Considering that during the storm surges the total water level is close to or even exceeds the warning level for these ports, further increasing the maximum water level by 0.1–0.2 m has the potential to cause severe damages and losses in these ports.

     

Nonstationary electrical activity in the tectonosphere-atmosphere interface retrieving by multielectrode sensors: case study of three major earthquakes in Central Italy with M&gt;6

We present data analysis of multi-electrode measurements performed in the tectonosphere-atmosphere interface at Pizzoli and Chieti observatories located at distances 30–50 km and 90–110 km from earthquakes epicenters in Central Italy accordingly. Time intervals include 30 days of observations before earthquakes occurred on 24 August (M6.2), on 26 October (M6.1) and on 30 October, 2016 (M6.6). The recorded signals are two component time series with time step 1 s representing alternative and direct electromotive force components. Alternative electromotive force component in frequency band of 0.01 Hz to 4000 Hz is being recorded. Basic study has been carried out since 1989 at Kamchatka peninsula and since 2012 across Eurasia. The observation of nonstationary electric processes illustrates the nucleation of seismogenetic activity. We propose the hypothesis that nonstationary (sudden, abrupt in amplitude) electrical signals illustrate the proton permeability of rocks laying underneath the measuring sensor including a unique phenomenon of anomalous spontaneous deformation due to combination of proton environment and polymorphic transformation in condensed media. One of the interesting results is distinguishing the main zone of major earthquake nucleation which is corresponding as the earthquakes epicenters in Central Italy with M > 6. We suggest that by covering the northern, central and southern parts of Italy with a network of multi-electrode observatories near fault lines, towns and villages could pinpoint the possible coordinates of earthquake epicenter in a 30 day time window. The Chieti and Pizzoli observatories can form the basis of an extended network.     

Geomagnetic induction responses of anisotropic conducting mantle

Phase change of dielectric magnesiowustite in the lower mantle may leave signatures in geomagnetic records of the globally distributed array of observatories. The related features appear in EM induction responses of lower mantle, which are studied theoretically. The surface EM field corresponding to a response of the earth with conductivity anisotropy in a mantle spherical layer is presented as the sum of the magnetic and electric modes. Equations for the fields of both modes and their relationship in a weakly anisotropic earth are obtained by the perturbation method. The two field modes are analyzed jointly and separately to characterize the conductivity tensor of the anisotropic lower mantle. The tensor elements corresponding to the tangential components of the field can be estimated from the magnetic mode alone recorded currently by the global network of geomagnetic observatories. For the tensor data to be complete, observatory data on lateral variations of the electric field are required in addition to three-component geomagnetic records.     

Characteristic of plasma bubbles observed by DMSP in the topside ionosphere during the year 2005

To study the characteristic of plasma bubbles in the topside ionosphere during the solar minima, we have analyzed a large database of post-sunset plasma density measurement acquired during ∼5104 equatorial crossings made by Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) F14 in 2005. On 675 of these crossings, equatorial plasma bubbles (EPBs) events were observed as intervals of depleted and irregular plasma densities that degrade communication and navigation signals. We have analyzed these EPB events to study their distributions with month, season and longitude. To test for possible dependence of EPB occurrence at topside altitudes on the level of magnetic activity, we compared the distributions of one year database with those of Kp index at the time of equatorial crossings by the DMSP satellites. We also examined the response of the evening sector, low-latitude ionosphere during eight magnetic storms with minimum Dst ≤ −100 nT. We observed that EPBs occurred regularly during geomagnetic storms, especially in the initial and main phases but can be suppressed sometimes for days, after prolonged activity during recovery phases. These results are discussed according to the other reported results.     

Balanced Sediment Fluxes in Southern California’s Mediterranean-Climate Zone Salt Marshes

Salt marsh elevation and geomorphic stability depends on mineral sedimentation. Many Mediterranean-climate salt marshes along southern California, USA coast import sediment during El Niño storm events, but sediment fluxes and mechanisms during dry weather are potentially important for marsh stability. We calculated tidal creek sediment fluxes within a highly modified, sediment-starved, 1.5-km² salt marsh (Seal Beach) and a less modified 1-km² marsh (Mugu) with fluvial sediment supply. We measured salt marsh plain suspended sediment concentration and vertical accretion using single stage samplers and marker horizons. At Seal Beach, a 2014 storm yielded 39 and 28 g/s mean sediment fluxes and imported 12,000 and 8800 kg in a western and eastern channel. Western channel storm imports offset 8700 kg exported during 2 months of dry weather, while eastern channel storm imports augmented 9200 kg imported during dry weather. During the storm at Mugu, suspended sediment concentrations on the marsh plain increased by a factor of four; accretion was 1–2 mm near creek levees. An exceptionally high tide sequence yielded 4.4 g/s mean sediment flux, importing 1700 kg: 20 % of Mugu’s dry weather fluxes. Overall, low sediment fluxes were observed, suggesting that these salt marshes are geomorphically stable during dry weather conditions. Results suggest storms and high lunar tides may play large roles, importing sediment and maintaining dry weather sediment flux balances for southern California salt marshes. However, under future climate change and sea level rise scenarios, results suggest that balanced sediment fluxes lead to marsh elevational instability based on estimated mineral sediment deficits.