A Long-term earthquake forecast for the Kuril-Kamchatka Island arc for the period 2006–2011 and a successful forecast of the MS = 8.2 middle kuril earthquake of November 15, 2006

Results are reported from continuous long-term earthquake prediction work for the Kuril-Kamchatka island arc using the patterns of seismic gaps and the seismic cycle. A five-year forecast (April 2006 to April 2011) for all portions of the Kuril-Kamchatka seismogenic zone is presented. According to this, the most likely locations of future M ≥ 7.7 earthquakes include the Petropavlovsk-Kamchatskii area where the probability of an M ≥ 7.7 earthquake causing ground motions of intensity VII to IX in the town of Petropavlovsk-Kamchatskii is 48% for 2006–2011, and the area of Onekotan I. and the Middle Kuril Islands where the probability of an M ≥ 7.7 earthquake was estimated as 26.7%. The forecast was fulfilled on November 15, 2006, when an M_s= 8.2, M_w = 8.3 earthquake occurred in the Middle Kuril Islands area. An updated long-term forecast is presented for the Kuril-Kamchatka arc for the period from November 2006 to October 2011. These forecasts provide good reasons to enhance seismic safety by strengthening buildings and structures in Kamchatka.     

Aftershocks and the rupture zone of the M S = 8.2, November 15, 2006 Middle Kuril Is. Earthquake and a long-term earthquake forecast for the Kuril-Kamchatka arc for the period from April 2008 to March 2013

Results are reported from the ongoing 2007–2008 work using the method of long-term earthquake prediction for the Kuril-Kamchatka arc based on the patterns of seismic gaps and the seismic cycle. This method was successful in predicting the M _S = 8.2 Simushir I. (Middle Kuril Is.) earthquake occurring in the Simushir I. area on November 15, 2006. An M _S = 8.1 earthquake occurred in the same area on January 13, 2007. We consider the evolution of the seismic process and determine the common rupture region of the two earthquakes. The sequence of M ≥ 6.0 aftershocks and forecasts for these are given. We provide a long-term forecast for the earthquake-generating zone of the Kuril-Kamchatka arc for the next five years, April 2008 to March 2013. Explanations are given for the method of calculation and prediction. The probable locations of future M ≥ 7.7 earthquakes are specified. For all segments of the earthquake-generating zone we predict the expected phases of the seismic cycle, the rate of low-magnitude seismicity (A₁₀), the magnitudes of moderate-sized earthquakes to be expected, with probabilities of 0.8, 0.5, and 0.15, their maximum possible magnitudes, and the probabilities of occurrence of great (M ≥ 7.7) earthquakes. The results of these forecasts are used to enhance seismic safety.     

唐山地震前不同区域油水井异常变化及其机理分析

对唐山地震前胜利、大港、辽河3个油田的油井和渤中2井的资料以及北京附近部分水井的资料进行整理和分析,描述了油水井的短期和临震异常特征;分析了唐山地震前同一地区和不同地区间的油水井前兆异常之间的关系,对油水井异常变化的机理进行了研究和分析,认为不同的油水井前兆异常是由于唐山地震孕震过程中造成的不同地区的应力状态不同所致,油水井前兆异常可以用来监测和预报地震。     

云南盈江Ms5.8级地震和缅甸Ms7.2级地震预测总结及震后趋势分析

针对强震能否预测以及如何预测的科学难题,建立了孕震断层多锁固段脆性破裂理论与相关预测方法.结合作者前期研究成果--中缅边境地震区未来强震四要素预测结果,并与2011年3月云南盈江Ms5.8级地震、缅甸Ms7.2级地震比较,认为这两次地震都能被作者提出的理论方法提前预测,表明该理论方法能可靠地应用于中等强度预震和主震的预...     

Analysis of vertical crustal movements in the period of the Kaliningrad earthquake of September 21, 2004 (from sea level data)

The paper analyzes data of leveling and meteorological observations conducted in the Kaliningrad region in the second half of September 2004, i.e., during a period including the few moderate seismic shocks of September 21, 2004. The analysis of long observation series and comparison of sea level variations recorded from September 15 through 30, 2004, with meteorological data have led to the conclusion that, most probably, the Sambiiskii Peninsula subsided tectonically by 25–30 cm over 12–24 h and a new sequence of seismic shocks occurred five to eight hours after the beginning of the subsidence. The geodynamic and prognostic aspects of the results obtained in this work are discussed.     

Surface disturbances connected with the Kaliningrad earthquake of September 21, 2004, and their correlation with macroseismic scales

Factual data on surface disturbances that emerged in the proximal zone of the Kaliningrad earthquake on September 21, 2004 (M = 4.9, I ₀ = 6.5) on land and in the adjacent basin are presented. These observations are nearly the first of this kind within the eastern European platform. It is shown that, on land, all disturbances were provoked by the shocks; however, they developed partially or completely as delayed consequences and had a superficial character, being conditioned by extremely unfavorable peculiarities of the local soil and relief. Such disturbances are not provided for in the MSK-64 and INQUA macroseismic scales during shocks with I = 6, which presents a number of problems for further studies and the adjustment of scales in the middle gradation zone.     

Assessing the intensity of the September 17, 2003, Khoito-Gol earthquake from instrumental and macroseismic data

The present study is devoted to the assessment of shaking intensities due to the September 17, 2003, earthquake occurring in the Khoito-Gol basin (southwestern flank of the Baikal Rift System). The instrumental and macroseismic data used here were acquired during an investigation into the impact of this seismic event. The highest intensity of shaking, VI, was recorded at Khoito-Gol, the human settlement that was the nearest to the instrumental epicenter. A nonuniform distribution of intensity was found for different directions from the epicenter. A scatter of as much as two intensity units was recorded at one settlement.     

2015年9月14日河北昌黎4.2级地震及震中附近应力状态分析

2015年9月14日在河北昌黎发生了M_S4.2地震,这次地震位于唐山老震区,是2015年内首都圈地区最显著的地震。本文计算了这次地震的地震矩张量和2015年内发生在其附近小地震的震源物理参数,对比之前的研究成果讨论了小区域的应力状态。以往应力场研究侧重于最大应力主轴方向,本研究通过计算地震视应力参数估计了区域绝对应力水平下限,获得了有关应力状态的丰富信息。本文采用(1)反演地震矩张量的波形拟合法及(2)积分宽频带平均震源谱法2种方法计算出地震矩,得到的地震矩比较接近,说明本文计算流程和参数选择合理。综合分析得出下面两点认识:(1)区域应力场受到华北应力场控制,同时也表现出小区域特征;(2)地震视应力分布与10年前相比没有明显差别,可能意味着该区域的地震活动会维持现状。     

2015年8月12日天津化学爆炸产生的多模式面波分析及其应用研究

2015年8月12日天津滨海新区发生的强烈化学品爆炸造成了巨大的经济损失和社会影响.天津爆炸产生了清晰的大振幅面波信号,分析结果表明这组信号由基阶和高阶面波组成,可以追踪到约135 km外的远处台站.利用这组面波信号分别开展了以下研究：（1）利用附近三个台站记录的四个单频基阶Rayleigh波信号对爆破事件的绝对位置进行了网格搜索,结果与利用GPS测量的位置相差仅0.498 km;（2）分别利用网格搜索和主事件定位法,对两次子事件的相对位置进行了确定,距离约75 m左右,与前人研究结果吻合;（3）从面波记录中测量到36条基阶Rayleigh波、49条第一高阶Rayleigh波、9条基阶Love波和29条第一高阶Love波的频散曲线,并进一步反演获得研究区域地下4 km内的S波速度结构.反演结果显示地表处S波速度低至0.375 km·s^-1,在小于1 km的浅地表速度梯度较大,符合典型的盆地结构特征.本文的研究结果为类似爆炸等突发事件快速定位提供了新的思路,有助于灾后救援的迅速展开;同时得到天津滨海新区及周边浅层精细的速度结构,对于地震灾害评估有很大帮助.

     

2015年8月12日天津化学爆炸产生的多模式面波分析及其应用研究

2015年8月12日天津滨海新区发生的强烈化学品爆炸造成了巨大的经济损失和社会影响.天津爆炸产生了清晰的大振幅面波信号,分析结果表明这组信号由基阶和高阶面波组成,可以追踪到约135 km外的远处台站.利用这组面波信号分别开展了以下研究：（1）利用附近三个台站记录的四个单频基阶Rayleigh波信号对爆破事件的绝对位置进行了网格搜索,结果与利用GPS测量的位置相差仅0.498 km;（2）分别利用网格搜索和主事件定位法,对两次子事件的相对位置进行了确定,距离约75 m左右,与前人研究结果吻合;（3）从面波记录中测量到36条基阶Rayleigh波、49条第一高阶Rayleigh波、9条基阶Love波和29条第一高阶Love波的频散曲线,并进一步反演获得研究区域地下4 km内的S波速度结构.反演结果显示地表处S波速度低至0.375 km·s^-1,在小于1 km的浅地表速度梯度较大,符合典型的盆地结构特征.本文的研究结果为类似爆炸等突发事件快速定位提供了新的思路,有助于灾后救援的迅速展开;同时得到天津滨海新区及周边浅层精细的速度结构,对于地震灾害评估有很大帮助.     

Variations in the characteristics of the pseudopositioning of navigational receivers close to the weak earthquake in Tuapse on September 8, 2010

The results of calculating the characteristics of the pseudopositioning of two navigational receivers in Tuapse and 60 km north of Tuapse at the Goryachii Klyuch locality before and after a weak submarine earthquake are presented. The earthquake with the epicenter 2 km offshore of Tuapse occurred on September 8, 2010. The experiment was conducted with the satellite receivers recoding the signals of the GLONASS/GPS global navigational satellite systems (GNSS). The receivers pertain to the system of satellite monitoring and forecasting the natural and manmade hazards on the segment of the North Caucasian Tuapse–Adler railroad. The pseudopositioning calculations based on the first carrier frequency of a GLONASS/GPS GNSS are conducted by the original author’s technology for monitoring the ionosphere and geological motions. It is established that the errors of the pseudopositioning estimates increase by the time of the earthquake. The accompanying effects in the variations of the ionospheric electron density and in the state of the Earth’s magnetic field are considered. The obtained results complement the existing data on the dynamics of the precursors of the earthquakes.     

Characteristic frequencies for earthquake families and their tectonic implications: Evidence from earthquake swarms in the kanto district,Japan

Through the analyses of waveform and spectrum for two swarm sequences in the Kanto District, including the results from 15 earthquake swarsm obtained previously, the mechanism of the faulting process in earthquake swarms is clarified in more detail. Earthquakes occurring in short time intervals consist mainly of events with similar waveforms andS-P times. These are called “earthquake families,” and many families are observed during a swarm sequence (70–80 percent); for example, 15 families were observed in the 1983 Izu Peninsula earthquake swarm. The source spectra of earthquake families share the same corner frequency, even though their low-frequency levels may differ by a factor as great as 1000, and the value of the corner frequency depends on the size of the largest event in the family. Local variations of corner frequencies within a factor of 25 are found among the earthquake swarms in the Kanto District. These observations suggest the existence of a characteristic fault length depending on the swarm area, and its length may be responsible for the size of the largest event in the family. The characteristic fault length is about 100 m for Ashio, about 400 m for the Izu Peninsula and about 2.5 km for areas off the Chiba Prefecture, and the magnitudes of the largest events expected from these fault lengths are about 2.5, 4, and 6, respectively.     

Rupture process of the 2015 Pishan earthquake from joint inversion of InSAR,teleseismic data and GPS

An earthquake of Mw6.4 occurred in Pishan County in Xinjiang Province, northwestern Tibetan Plateau, on July 3,2015. The epicenter was located on an active blind thrust system located at the northern margin of the Western Kunlun Mountain Orogenic Belt southwest of the Tarim Basin. We constructed a shovel-shaped fault model based on the layered-crust model with reference to the seismic reflection profile, and obtained the rupture process of the earthquake from the joint inversion of Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar(InSAR) measurements, far-field waveform data, and Global Positioning System(GPS) data. The results show that the seismic fault dips southward with a strike of 109°, and the rupture direction was essentially northward. The fault plane rupture distribution is concentrated, with a maximum recorded slip of 73 cm. The main features of the fault are as follows: low inclination angle(25°–10°), thrust slip at a depth of 9–13 km, rupture propagation time of about 12 s, no significant slip in soft or hard sedimentary layers at 0–4 km depth and propagation from the initial rupture point to the surrounding area with no obvious directionality. The InSAR time-series analysis method is used to determine the deformation rate in the source region within 2 years after the earthquake, and the maximum value is ~17 mm yr-1 in the radar line-of-sight direction. Obvious post-earthquake deformation is evident in the hanging wall, with a similar trend to the coseismic displacement field. These results suggest that the Pishan earthquake has not completely released the accumulated energy of the region, given that the multilayer fold structure above the blind fault is still in a process of slow uplift since the earthquake. Post-earthquake adjustment models and aftershock risk analysis require further study using more independent data.     

Chi-square regression for seismic strength parameter relations, and their uncertainties, with applications to an M w based earthquake catalogue for central, northern and northwestern Europe

A generalized chi-square regression approach to establishempirical relations between different types of seismic strengthparameters with uncertainties in all input data is presented anddiscussed in comparison with standard least-squares techniques.The chi-square technique can consider errors of individual entriesbut can also be applied when errors are not exactly known and onlyweaker quantitative constraints can be made. It can preserve thesymmetry of the derived relations and is preferred for complexregression models. Results for three types of regression modelsare presented for (1) a linear relation between M _Sand m _bfor events in the North Atlantic Ocean; (2) a quadratic relationbetween M _w and M _L forevents in central Europe; (3) linearrelations between M _L and I ₀,with logarithmic dependency ofthe focal depth, for several regions in central and northernEurope.     

Evaluation of seismic displacement demands from the September 19, 2017 Puebla‐Morelos (Mw = 7.1) earthquake in Mexico City

This short communication presents the assessment of seismic inelastic and elastic displacement demands computed from earthquake ground motions (EQGMs) recorded in Mexico City during the intermediate‐depth intraslab Puebla‐Morelos earthquake on 19 September 2017 (Mw = 7.1). Evaluation is conducted by means of peak elastic and inelastic displacement demand spectra, inelastic displacement ratio, C_R, spectra, and generalized interstory drift spectra computed for selected recording stations located in different soil sites of Mexico City, including those located in areas of reported collapsed buildings. Results of this study confirm previous observations made from interplate (subduction) EQGMs that peak inelastic displacement demands are greater than corresponding elastic counterparts for short‐to‐medium period structures, while the opposite is true for medium‐to‐long period structures. Possible basin site effects were identified from generalized interstory drift spectra. It is also shown that an equation introduced in the literature to obtain estimates of C_R developed from interplate EQGMs provides also a good estimate for mean C_R computed from the intermediate‐depth intraslab EQGMs.     

利用早期余震预测的Omi-R-J方法对2017年四川九寨沟MS7.0地震的应用研究

在地震序列的早期阶段获得科学可靠的余震预测结果,始终是地震预测研究的前沿课题.针对新近发展的Omi-R-J方法的适用性问题,以及相比于传统的Reseanberg-Jones（R-J）模型在地震序列参数拟合、余震预测效能上的差异等问题,本文以2017年四川九寨沟M_S7.0地震序列为例,利用多时间窗的连续滑动拟合、预测和检验,以及通过构建重采样随机地震序列目录的系统检验等方式,开展了应用研究和比较研究.结果表明：相比于R-J模型,Omi-R-J方法可在余震记录较不完整的地震序列早期阶段获得稳定、可靠的序列参数,p值、c值和b值的标准差相比于R-J模型参数明显减小.N-test方法检验结果表明,在R-J模型等传统方法无法获得预测结果的地震序列早期阶段,Omi-R-J方法预测结果可以较高的比例通过N-test检验,在后续时段的预测效果也明显优于R-J模型.利用随机地震序列目录的测试结果表明,余震记录完整性下降对Omi-R-J方法预测结果的影响相对较小,在全部时段的完整性下降的影响高于在部分时段的完整性下降.上述结果对进一步地将Omi-R-J方法应用在震后早期余震预测中具有一定科学借鉴意义.

     

Anomalous crustal strain prior to the 1923 Kanto,Japan, earthquake as deduced from analysis of old triangulation data

Horizontal earth's strains preceding the Kanto, Japan, earthquake of 1, September 1923, are deduced from the analysis of the old triangulation data. The anomalous strains that are several times larger than usual tectonic strain are found in the western part of Tokyo Bay, Sagamihara district, Japan for the observational period 1882/91–1898/1910, while any significant strain is not revealed in the other region of the Kanto district. The Kanto district was surveyed twice during the period 1883/85–1890/92 in the west and during the period 1890/92–1897/99 in the east respectively. The polarity of the detected anomalous strains, the directions and the signs of the principal strains, are quite the same as those of the postseismic crustal strains during the period 1924–74, and are reversed as compared to the coseismic one.The Philippine Sea plate thrusts under the South Kanto district with N25°W direction and pulls down the land during the interseismic period. The aseismic reverse faulting would begin several decades before the 1923 Kanto earthquake along the deep interface between the Asian plate and the convergent Philippine Sea plate. The down-going along the locked part of the interface would be accelerated, thus the compressional stress on the earth's surface might be concentrated over the deep fault plane together with the acceleration of the subsidence at the tip of the peninsula close to the Sagami trough.     

1999年台湾集集7.6级地震对我省防震减灾工作的启示

１９９９年９月２１日台湾集集发生７．６级地震,地震灾害严重。分析了该次地震灾害严重的几点主要原因,及其对我省防震减灾工作若干问题的启示。     

2010年青海玉树地震同震-震后形变场特征及演化过程

基于星载合成孔径雷达差分干涉测量技术(DInSAR)和4期ENVISAT/ASAR雷达数据,获得了不同时间基线的三个同震干涉形变场和两个震后干涉形变场,并对这五个在时段上互有重叠的形变场进行了综合分析.结果表明,玉树地震同震形变场为围绕发震断层NW展布的椭圆形干涉条纹,覆盖范围约89 km×59 km.断层运动性质为左旋走滑.两盘最大视线向相对形变量至少达45 cm,最大形变出现在结古镇附近.时间基线不同的同震形变场总体上基本一致,但两盘最大相对形变量和局部形变存在差异.震后时间较长的干涉对反映的最大形变量反而减小;在震后时间较短的干涉对上于结古镇西南侧观测到的局部形变,在震后时间较长的干涉对上却没有出现.分析认为在形变量最大的结古镇附近可能出现了震后快速弹性回弹,导致随震后时间延续,形变量反而减小的现象.玉树地震震后形变主要出现在断层附近、震后不久的时段内,形变量在8 cm以下,具有与同震方向一致和相反的两种震后形变方式.在结古镇西南观测到一个与同震形变相反的局部沉降,应为震后弹性回弹.在微观震中处的断层附近观测到与同震方向一致的震后形变,可能是震后余滑.通过对地震前后不同时间基线的多个干涉对的联合对比分析,可以在一定程度上区分同震形变与震后形变,更好地研究地震引起的变形过程,特别是地震断层附近短期震后形变场的演化过程,为进一步研究断层带的岩性特征、物理力学及运动特性提供约束.