Breaking global temperature records after Mt. Pinatubo

The probability of setting global temperature records is reconsidered in light of cooling due to the Mt. Pinatubo eruption. The cooling resets temperature by moving it away from the top of its 100-year range. Depending on the statistical model for temperature, this reset can lead to a much lower probability for a record in the next few years. The exercise illustrates how record setting depends on the underlying model, the current record value, and - if there is serial correlation- the current temperature.     

Similarity of atmospheric Reynolds shear stress and heat flux fluctuations over a rough surface

Horizontal u and vertical w velocity fluctuations have been measured together with temperature fluctuations in the atmospheric surface layer, at a small height above a wheat crop canopy. Marginal probability density functions are presented for both individual fluctuations u, w, and for the instantaneous Reynolds stress uw, and heat fluxes w and u. Probability density functions of the velocity fluctuations deviate less significantly from the Gaussian form than the probability density of temperature. There appears to be closer similarity between statistics of the instantaneous heat fluxes than between the momentum flux and either of the heat fluxes investigated. The mean momentum flux receives equal contributions from the events referred to as ejections and sweeps in laboratory boundary layers. Sweeps provide the largest contribution to the heat fluxes.     

Carbon dioxide emissions in a methane economy

Increasing reliance on natural gas (methane) to meet global energy demands holds implications for atmospheric CO₂ concentrations. Analysis of these implications is presented, based on a logistic substitution model viewing energy technologies like biological species invading an econiche and substituting in case of superiority for existing species. This model suggests gas will become the dominant energy source and remain so for 50 years, peaking near 70 percent of world supply. Two scenarios of energy demand are explored, one holding per capita consumption at current levels, the second raising the global average in the year 2100 to the current U.S. level. In the first (efficiency) scenario concentrations peak about 450 ppm, while in the second (long wave) they near 600 ppm. Although projected CO₂ concentrations in a methane economy are low in relation to other scenarios, the projections confirm that global climate warming is likely to be a major planetary concern throughout the twenty-first century. A second finding is that data on past growth of world per capita energy consumption group neatly into two pulses consistent with longwave theories in economics.     

Cloud changes in a warmer Europe

Cloud cover records for western Europe have been analysed in the context of the warming world analogue model described by Lough et al. (1983). It is found that cloud cover has generally increased in moving from a cold period (1901–1920) to a warm period (1934–1953). The exception to this general trend is over the central part of the area considered (Germany, France and some parts of Spain) where there is a tendency towards decreasing cloud as warming occurs. While the results presented here are not closely correlated with the temperature and precipitation results of Lough et al. (1983), there is support for their hypothesis that cloudiness increased in autumn over northern Europe. The suggestion that successful performance of numerical climate models in seasonal simulations might demonstrate adequacy in other climatic simulation modes is also examined It is shown that whilst there is good agreement with observations in one such numerical model in the seasonal simulation, there is no agreement in the case of a warming world in either the direction or the amount of cloudiness change.     

Bumping against a Gas Ceiling

The adoption of physical thresholds as a ceiling for permitted climate change sidesteps contentious issues such as: policy cost, impact valuation, discounting and equity. In this paper I offer some reflections on the concept of tolerable climate change. I also use an integrated climate assessment model (ICAM-3) to demonstrate how uncertainties in our understanding of socioeconomic and earth systems reduce the probability of success in keeping climate change within a pre-defined tolerable range. Finally, I explore the implications of socioeconomic thresholds for welfare loss in pursuit of a climate policy (e.g., tax rebellions). Crossing such regional socioeconomic thresholds will lead to local failures to pursue climate change mitigation policies — increasing the probability of straying beyond the tolerable window of global climate change. Given various uncertainties and the dynamics of the socioeconomic and the earth systems, the odds of success in staying within a climate change window of T 2°C, and T/yr 0.015°C are estimated to be no higher than 25% over the next century. A risk-risk tradeoff approach appears to hold promise, but while adoption of a larger window of tolerance increases the probability of success, it also opens the window specification criteria to contention.     

Increasing cloud in a warming world

Cloud amount records for the U.S.A. have been analyzed in the context of the warming world analogue model described by Lough et al. (1983). Cloud amount increases over practically the entire U.S.A. in all seasons. This result considerably strengthens the more tentative conclusion of Henderson-Sellers (1986) that cloud amount increases over Europe in the same warming world scenario. These results are in contrast to the few numerical model predictions of cloud changes in warming world experiments. A possible, rather tantalizing, conclusion is that current GCM cloud prediction schemes tend to enhance temperature increases through cloud-climate feedback whereas the historical data could suggest a negative feedback. Part, possibly all, of this difference may be the result of the fundamental distinction between the two experimental scenarios: the equilibrium change modelled by GCMs as compared to the smaller transient change represented by the historical analogue. On the other hand the current real-world experiment is, itself, a transient change in boundary and atmospheric conditions. At the least, surface-observed cloudiness seems to offer a useful and complementary data source with which to examine one aspect of the performance of numerical climate models.     

On the inner-layer scale height of boundary-layer flow over low hills

Jackson and Hunt's (1975) equation for the depth of the inner layer of flows over low hills does not depend on any closure assumption as contrarily supposed in literature. This equation contains a constant which can arbitrarily be specified. It is suggested that this inner-layer constant should be determined from experimental data. A preliminary check with some data from the Askervein experiment suggests that Jackson and Hunt's equation fits these data almost as well as Jensen's equation provided that fitted inner-layer constants are used.     

On Trajectory Curvature as a Selection Criterion for Valid Lagrangian Stochastic Dispersion Models

Recently Wilson and Flesch (Boundary-Layer Meteorology, 84, 411-426, 1997) suggested that the average increment d z to the orientation = arctan(w/u) of the Lagrangian velocity-fluctuation vector can be used to distinguish the better Lagrangian stochastic models within the well-mixed class. Here it is demonstrated that the specification of d z constitutes neither a sufficient or universally applicable criterion to distinguish the better Lagrangian stochastic models within the well-mixed class. The hypothesis made by Wilson and Flesch that Lagrangian stochastic models with /P_E irrotational are zero-spin models, having d z=0, is proven     

On the Response of the Greenland Ice Sheet to Greenhouse Climate Change

Numerical computations are performed with the three-dimensional polythermal ice-sheet model SICOPOLIS in order to investigate the possible impact of a greenhouse-gas-induced climate change on the Greenland ice sheet. The assumed increase of the mean annual air temperature above the ice covers a range from T = 1°C to 12°C, and several parameterizations for the snowfall and the surface melting are considered. The simulated shrinking of the ice sheet is a smooth function of the temperature rise, indications for the existence of critical thresholds of the climate input are not found. Within 1000 model years, the ice-volume decrease is limited to 10% of the present volume for T 3°C, whereas the most extreme scenario, T = 12°C, leads to an almost entire disintegration, which corresponds to a sea-level equivalent of 7 m. The different snowfall and melting parameterizations yield an uncertainty range of up to 20% of the present ice volume after 1000 model years.     

A projection of future sea level

Evidence is reviewed that suggests faster sea-level rise when climate gets warmer. Four processes appear as dominating on a time scale of decades to centuries: melting of mountain glaciers and small ice caps, changes in the mass balance of the large polar ice sheets (Greenland, Antarctica), possible ice-flow instabilities (in particular on the West Antarctic Ice Sheet), and thermal expansion of ocean water.For a given temperature scenario, an attempt is made to estimate the different contributions. The calculation yields a figure of 9.5 cm of sea-level rise since 1850 AD, which is within the uncertainty range of estimates of the observed rise.A further 33 cm rise is found as most likely for the year 2050, but the uncertainty is very large ( = 32 cm). The contribution from melting of land ice is of the same order of magnitude as thermal expansion. The mass-balance effects of the major ice sheets tend to cancel to some extent (increasing accumulation on Antarctica, increasing ablation on Greenland). For the year 2100 a value of 66 cm above the present-day stand is found ( = 57 cm). The estimates of the standard deviation include uncertainty in the temperature scenario, as presented elsewhere in this volume.     

An observational study of heat fluxes and their relationships with net radiation

Experimental evidence indicates that the diurnal behaviour of the fluxes of heat into the ground and into the atmosphere versus the net flux of radiation can be modelled by closed curves, the hourly values folowing one another in either a clockwise or counter clockfashion. A general formulation to express the different heat fluxes as a function of net radiation is proposed. This relationship between the different heat fluxes and can be expressed as a sum of three terms: the first indicates a direct proportionality to , the second gives the deviation from linearity and depends on /t, and the third gives the value of the flux when = 0. The formulae are then expressed as a function of time and the ratios between the heat fluxes and are evaluated. A comparison with the approximations generally used shows that the latter may be considered as particular cases of the more general equations proposed here.     

Changes in atmospheric chemistry and the greenhouse effect: A Southern Hemisphere perspective

In the past decades there has been an explosive increase in studies of the chemistry of the atmosphere. These studies have shown that the chemical composition of the global atmosphere is far from constant. There is a clearly discernible chemical weather and climate and the latter is changing.Global atmospheric chemistry is at a relatively embryonic stage and much of the effort thus far has been directed towards the establishment of an observational basis upon which a sound theoretical understanding of chemical weather and climate can be built. Without this framework we will remain unable to rationally assess the consequences of, or even distinguish between, natural and man-made perturbations to the chemistry of the atmosphere or to understand the instabilities that already exist.Parallel with this development is the major upsurge of interest in the warming of the planet now expected with high probability as a result of the increase of the atmospheric levels of the so-called greenhouse gases. Such changes; although not the only environmental changes expected, are likely to have far-reaching effects on society and the natural environment. Serious decisions are ahead as we strive to adapt to and avoid climatically induced change.     

Wind and temperature profile prediction for diabatic surface layers including strong inversion cases

The micrometeorological research program in Antarctica has provided extensive data on wind and temperature profile structure under strong to extreme inversion conditions (Dalrymple et al., 1966; Lettau et al., 1977). The basic similarity hypotheses and limiting conditions for prediction of diabatic surface layer profiles are summarized. The model by Businger et al. (1971) for dimensionless shear and temperature gradients is revised to conform with the new results for strong stability. A novel similarity hypothesis is introduced to complete the step from shear and gradient prediction to prediction of absolute wind speed, wind energy, and temperature on the basis of prescribed external factors of surface layer structure. The physics of interactions between predicted profile tilting and curving are discussed and used to explain several micrometeorological paradoxes, including that of the elevated minimum of air temperature observed occasionally near the active surface when the energy budget is of the nocturnal type.     

Scavenging Efficiency of ‘Aerosol Carbon’ and Sulfate in Supercooled Clouds at Mt. Sonnblick (3106 m a.s.l., Austria)

Cloud water and interstitial aerosol samples collected at Mt. Sonnblick (SBO) were analyzed for sulfate and aerosol carbon to calculate in-cloud scavenging efficiencies. Scavenging efficiencies for sulfate (_SO) ranged from 0.52 to 0.99 with an average of 0.80. Aerosol carbon was scavenged less efficiently with an average value (_AC) of 0.45 and minimum and maximum values of 0.14 and 0.81, respectively. Both _SO and _AC showed a marked, but slightly different, dependence on the liquid water content (LWC) of the cloud. At low LWC, _SO increased with rising LWC until it reached a relatively constant value of 0.83 above an LWC of 0.3 g/m³. In the case of aerosol carbon, we obtained a more gradual increase of _AC up to an LWC of 0.5 g/m³. At higher LWCs, _{_} remained relatively constant at 0.60. As the differences between _SO and _A varied across the LWC range observed at SBO, we assume that part of the aerosol carbon was incorporated into the cloud droplets independently from sulfate. This hypothesis is supported by size classified aerosol measurements. The differences in the size distributions of sulfate and total carbon point to a partially external mixture. Thus, the different chemical nature and the differences in the size and mixing state of the aerosol particles are the most likely candidates for the differences in the scavenging behavior.     

Urban heat island effect on annual mean temperature during the last 50 years in China

Summary Based on Chinas fifth population survey (2000) data and homogenized annual mean surface air temperature data, the urban heat island (UHI) effect on the warming during the last 50 years in China was analyzed in this study. In most cities with population over 10⁴, where there are national reference stations and principal stations, most of the temperature series are inevitably affected by the UHI effect. To detect the UHI effect, the annual mean surface air temperature (SAT) time series were firstly classified into 5 subregions by using Rotated Principal Components Analysis (RPCA) according to its high and low frequency climatic change features. Then the average UHI effect on each subregions regional annual mean STA was studied. Results indicate that the UHI effect on the annual mean temperatures includes three aspects: increase of the average values, decrease of variances and change of the climatic trends. The effect on the climatic trends is different from region to region. In the Yangtze River Valley and South China, the UHI effect enhances the warming trends by about 0.011°C/decade. In the other areas, such as Northeast, North-China, and Northwest, UHI has little impact on the warming trends of the regional annual temperature; while in the Southwest of China, introducing UHI stations slows down the warming trend by –0.006°C/decade. But no matter what subregion it is, the total warming/cooling of these effects is much smaller than the background change in regional temperature. The average UHI effect for the entire country, during the last 50 years is less than 0.06°C, which agrees well with the IPCC (2001). This suggests that we cannot conclude that urbanization during the last 50 years has had much obvious effect on the observed warming in China.     

AN E – ε – ℓ TURBULENCE CLOSURE SCHEME FOR PLANETARY BOUNDARY-LAYER MODELS: THE NEUTRALLY STRATIFIED CASE

The standard E – model generates aplanetary boundary layerthat appears to be much too deep. The cause of theproblem is traced to the equation for the dissipationrate () of turbulent kinetic energy (E), specifically theparameterization of dissipation production anddestruction. In the context of atmosphericboundary-layer modelling, we argue that a part of thedissipation production should be modelled as the inputto the spectral cascade from the energy-containingpart of the spectrum, with a characteristic length , while the equilibrium imbalancebetween local production and destruction ofdissipation is modelled as proportional toE2/E, as in the standard model. Wepropose an E – – turbulence closurescheme, in which both the mixing length, m, and are prescribed. The importance ofthe equation is diminished, though itstill determines the dissipation rate in the Eequation.     

Shear convection

The paper discusses convection in the presence of wind shear, a condition analysed previously by Zilitinkevich (1971). This region (between the forced and fully developed convective layers) was also considered by Betchov and Yaglom (1971). In the present paper the author endeavors to develop a consistent analysis from the basic hypothesis of a very weak interaction between the vertical convective motions and mechanical turbulence, employing a new similarity model of the turbulent regime. Additional experimental data are introduced. Unlike the notation used in the references quoted above, this regime is termed shear convection rather than free convection. The latter is traditionally regarded as synonymous with the terms pure or fully developed convection.     

A Comparative Analysis of Transpiration and Bare Soil Evaporation

Transpiration E^v and bare soil evaporation E^b processes are comparatively analysed assuming homogeneous and inhomogeneous areal distributions of volumetric soil moisture content . For a homogeneous areal distribution of we use a deterministic model, while for inhomogeneous distributions a statistical-deterministic diagnostic surface energy balance model is applied. The areal variations of are simulated by Monte-Carlo runs assuming normal distributions of .The numerical experiments are performed for loam. In the experiments we used different parameterizations for vegetation and bare soil surface resistances and strong atmospheric forcing. According to the results theE^v()-^Eb() differences are great, especially in dry conditions. In spite of this, the available energy flux curves of vegetation A^v() and bare soil A^b() surfaces differ much less than the E^v() and ^Eb() curves. The results suggest that E^v is much more non-linearly related to environmental conditions than ^Eb. Both E^v and ^Eb depend on the distribution of , the wetness regime and the parameterization used. With the parameterizations, ^Eb showed greater variations than E^v. These results are valid when there are no advective effects or mesoscale circulation patterns and the stratification is unstable.     

Averaging Intervals For Spectral Analysis Of Nonstationary Turbulence

We formulate a method for determining the smallest time interval Tover which a turbulence time series can be averaged to decompose it intoinstantaneous mean and random components. From the random part the method defines the optimal interval (or averaging window) AW over which this part should be averaged to obtain the instantaneous spectrum. Both T and AW vary randomly with time and depend on physical properties of the turbulence. T also depends on the accuracy of the measurements and is thus independent of AW. Interesting features of the method are its real-time capability and the non-equality between AW and T.