Dynamic stress field of a kinematic earthquake source model with k-squared slip distribution

Source models such as the k -squared stochastic source model with k -dependent rise time are able to reproduce source complexity commonly observed in earthquake slip inversions. An analysis of the dynamic stress field associated with the slip history prescribed in these kinematic models can indicate possible inconsistencies with physics of faulting. The static stress drop, the strength excess, the breakdown stress drop and critical slip weakening distance D _c distributions are determined in this study for the kinematic k -squared source model with k -dependent rise time. Several studied k -squared models are found to be consistent with the slip weakening friction law along a substantial part of the fault. A new quantity, the stress delay, is introduced to map areas where the yielding criterion of the slip weakening friction is violated. Hisada's slip velocity function is found to be more consistent with the source dynamics than Boxcar, Brune's and Dirac's slip velocity functions. Constant rupture velocities close to the Rayleigh velocity are inconsistent with the k -squared model, because they break the yielding criterion of the slip weakening friction law. The bimodal character of D _c / D _tot frequency–magnitude distribution was found. D _c approaches the final slip D _tot near the edge of both the fault and asperity. We emphasize that both filtering and smoothing routinely applied in slip inversions may have a strong effect on the space–time pattern of the inferred stress field, leading potentially to an oversimplified view of earthquake source dynamics.     

Dynamic rupture and stress change in a normal faulting earthquake in the subducting Cocos plate

A large nearly vertical, normal faulting earthquake ( M _w = 7.1) took place in 1997 in the Cocos plate, just beneath the ruptured fault zone of the great 1985 Michoacan thrust event ( M _w = 8.1). Dynamic rupture and resultant stress change during the 1997 earthquake have been investigated on the basis of near-source strong-motion records together with a 3-D dynamic model.
Dynamically consistent waveform inversion reveals a highly heterogeneous distribution of stress drop, including patch-like asperities and negative stress-drop zones. Zones of high stress drop are mainly confined to the deeper, southeastern section of the vertical fault, where the maximum dynamic stress drop reaches 280 bars (28 MPa). The dynamically generated source time function varies with location on the fault, and yields a short slip duration, which is caused by a short scalelength of stress-drop heterogeneities. The synthetic seismograms calculated from the dynamic model are generally consistent with the strong-motion velocity records in the frequency range lower than 0.5 Hz.
The pattern of stress-drop distribution appears, in some sense, to be consistent with that of coseismic changes in shear stress resulting from the 1985 thrust event. This consistency suggests that the stress transfer from the 1985 event to the subducting plate could be one of the possible mechanisms that increased the chance of the occurrence of the 1997 earthquake.     

A probabilistic approach to the inversion of data from a seismic array and its application to volcanic signals

Array techniques are particularly well‐suited for detecting and quantifying the complex seismic wavefields associated with volcanic activity such as volcanic tremor and long‐period events. The methods based on the analysis of the signal in the frequency domain, or spectral methods, have the main advantages of both resolving closely spaced sources and reducing the necessary computer time, but may severely fail in the analysis of monochromatic, non‐stationary signals. Conversely, the time‐domain methods, based on the maximization of a multichannel coherence estimate, can be applied even for short‐duration pulses. However, for both the time and the frequency domain approaches, an exhaustive definition of the errors associated with the slowness vector estimate is not yet available. Such a definition become crucial once the slowness vector estimates are used to infer source location and extent. In this work we develop a method based on a probabilistic formalism, which allows for a complete definition of the uncertainties associated with the estimate of frequency–slowness power spectra from measurement of the zero‐lag cross‐correlation. The method is based on the estimate of the theoretical frequency–slowness power spectrum, which is expressed as the convolution of the true signal slowness with the array response pattern. Using a Bayesian formalism, the a posteriori probability density function for signal slowness is expressed as the difference, in the least‐squares sense, between the model spectrum and that derived from application of the zero‐lag cross‐correlation technique. The method is tested using synthetic waveforms resembling the quasi‐monochromatic signals often associated with the volcanic activity. Examples of application to data from Stromboli volcano, Italy, allow for the estimate of source location and extent of the explosive activity.     

Estimating rupture scenario likelihood based on dynamic rupture simulations: the example of the segmented Middle Durance fault, southeastern France

The Middle Durance fault system, southeastern France, is a slow active fault that produced moderate-size historical seismic events and shows evidence of at least one   M _w ≳ 6.5  event in the last 29 000 yr. Based on dynamic rupture simulation, we propose earthquake scenarios that are constrained by knowledge of both the tectonic stress field and of the 3-D geometry of the Durance fault system. We simulate dynamic rupture interaction among several fault segmentations of different strikes, dips and rakes, using a 3-D boundary integral equation method. 50 combinations of reasonable stress field orientations, stress field amplitudes and hypocentre locations are tested. The probability of different rupture evolutions is then computed. Each segment ruptures mainly as a single event (44 per cent of the 50 simulations test in this paper). However, the probability that an event triggers simultaneously along three segments is high (26 per cent), leading to a potential rupture length of 45 km. Finally, 2 per cent of the simulations occur along four adjacent segments, producing the greatest total rupture length of 55 km. The simulation results show that the southernmost segment is most easily ruptured (40 per cent), because of its favourable orientation with respect to the tectonic stress and of its favourable location for interaction with the other segments. South-bound unilateral propagation is slightly preferable (41 per cent), compared to north-bound unilateral and bilateral propagation modes. Although, these rupture scenarios cannot be directly translated into probabilities of occurrence, they do provide a better insight as to which rupture scenarios are more likely, an important element to better estimate near-field strong ground motion and seismic hazard.     

Vertical profile of effective turbidity reconstructed from broadening of incoherent body-wave pulses—I. General approach and the inversion procedure

A method is developed for the reconstruction of a non-uniform distribution of scattering properties in the upper layers of the Earth using data on broadening of an incoherent body-wave group or pulse along a number of rays. The theoretical basis for this reconstruction is a linear integral formula after Bocharov (1985, 1988), which is employed to design a linear inversion procedure. The inversion is performed in terms of a single scalar parameter of effective turbidity. This parameter presents an adequate generalization of the common turbidity parameter used in the isotropic scattering case; it describes, simultaneously, scattering attenuation, pulse broadening and backscattering or coda formation. As a preliminary step, necessary conditions of applicability of the transport equation approach for the analysis of regional high-frequency seismic waves are verified. A new compact derivation of Bocharov's formula is then presented. A linear least-squares inversion procedure for recovering a layered turbidity structure is proposed and tested on synthetic data of onset-to-peak delays of incoherent body-wave pulses. A few practical aspects of the application of the general approach to seismological data are analysed, including the correctness of the low-angle approximation, the use of peak delay observations instead of pulse centroid, the effects of a realistic spatial spectrum of inhomogeneity field, the potential bias produced by intrinsic loss, and the distortions produced by a non-spherical (double dipole) source radiation pattern. The latter point is considered as critically important, as one can expect significant data contamination by nodal arrivals. An efficient robust estimation procedure is designed and tested that is capable of suppressing distortions from nodal and near-nodal data.     

Responsive geo-referenced content visualization based on a user interest model and level of detail

With steady growth in the deployment of sensor networks and widespread usage of mobile devices, the production of geo-referenced data is increasing exponentially, while analysis of the data typically uses a variety of application services on the Internet for activities such as logging and driving. This geo-referenced content needs to be classified and organized according to user interest for location-based decision-making. In this study, we define a user interest model and propose a method for organizing and presenting content based on the model. Our approach reconstructs geo-referenced content from a variety of sources based on points of interest organized by the user interest model. We present typical cases of using the proposed method, including a theme park resort, personal weather stations, and travel planning to show how the proposed method facilitates user decision-making based on the geo-referenced content.     

Simulation of spatial population dynamics based on labor economics and multi-agent systems: a case study on a rapidly developing manufacturing metropolis

Spatial population dynamics affects resource allocation in urban planning. Simulation of population dynamics can provide useful information to urban planning for rapidly developing manufacturing metropolises. In such a metropolis with a concentration of immigrant labor forces, individual employment choices could have a significant effect on their residential decisions. There remains a need for an efficient method, which can simulate spatial population dynamics by considering the interactions between employment and residential choices. This article proposes an agent-based model for simulation of spatial population dynamics by addressing the influence of labor market on individual residential decisions. Labor economics theory is incorporated into a multi-agent system in this model. The long-term equilibrium process of labor market is established to define the interactions between labor supply and labor demand. An agent-based approach is adopted to simulate the economic behaviors and residential decisions of population individuals. The residential decisions of individuals would eventually have consequences on spatial population dynamics. The proposed model has been verified by the spatial dynamics simulation (2007 to 2010) of Dongguan, an emerging and renowned manufacturing metropolis in the Pearl River Delta, China. The results indicate that the simulated population size and spatial distribution of each town in Dongguan are close to those obtained from census data. The proposed model is also applied to predict spatial population dynamics based on two economic planning scenarios in Dongguan from 2010 to2015. The predicted results provide insights into the population dynamics of this fast-growing region.     

基于等级合理性和居业协同度的村庄类型识别与振兴路径研究

村镇体系是乡村要素集聚与实施乡村振兴战略的空间载体,通过判断村镇体系与乡村振兴之间的逻辑关系,探索不同类型农区村镇体系的空间优化路径,对于科学推进乡村振兴战略具有重要指导意义。论文利用江苏省丰县356个村庄、14个镇的多源数据,从等级合理度与居业协同度2个维度构建村镇体系评价体系,探析了村镇人口、农业、非农业要素集聚能力、空间极化特征与居业协同格局,然后基于村庄类型的划分,进一步识别了乡村振兴的空间类型,最后提出了不同空间类型的乡村振兴路径与具体对策。主要研究结论为:① 丰县村镇体系呈现出结构相对稳定、空间极化程度不高、局部地区居业相对失衡、乡村振兴内在动力不足等主要特征;② 结合要素集聚与居业协同特征,将村庄划分为人口—非农业要素滞后的弱就业功能型(I)、人口—农业要素滞后的弱就业功能型(II)、人口—非农业要素相对滞后的低水平居业均衡型(III)、要素相对耦合的高水平居业协同型(IV)、非农业要素滞后的弱居住功能型(V)、农业要素滞后的弱居住功能型(VI)6种类型;③ 基于村庄类型识别结果,进一步甄别了丰县未来推进乡村振兴的核心区、外围区、潜力区,构建了分区分类实施乡村振兴战略的基本思路与具体路径。     

Effects of DEM resolution and source on soil erosion modelling: a case study using the WEPP model

Digital elevation models (DEMs) vary in resolution and accuracy by the production method. DEMs with different resolutions and accuracies can generate varied topographic and hydrological features, which can in turn affect predictions by soil erosion models, such as the WEPP (Water Erosion Prediction Project) model. This study investigates the effects of DEMs on deriving topographic and hydrological attributes, and on predicting watershed erosion using WEPP v2006.5. Six DEMs at three resolutions from three sources were prepared for two small forested watersheds located in northern Idaho, USA. These DEMs were used to calculate topographic and hydrological parameters that served as inputs to WEPP. The model results of sediment yields and runoffs were compared with field observations. For both watersheds, DEMs with different resolutions and sources generated varied watershed shapes and structures, which in turn led to different extracted hill slope and channel lengths and gradients, and produced substantially different erosion predictions by WEPP.     

基于EA-SD模型的生态农业系统模拟与优化调控——以平凉市崆峒区为例

以甘肃省平凉市崆峒区生态农业系统为例,基于农业产业链的物质、能量流动机理,运用Vensim软件建立生态农业系统动力学分析模型(EA-SD)。量化分析和模拟了生态农业发展的综合效益及其演变趋势。经模拟,按照现在的发展模式不变,系统不但存在牛粪尿污染等负效应,而且随着肉牛年屠宰量的快速上涨,未来崆峒区可能出现肉牛数量锐减,制沼产业、有机农业衰落,整个系统难以持续发展的情况。根据模拟结果,论文制定了系统优化调控政策,并模拟了优化后系统的发展情景。结果显示,优化能够消除系统缺陷和负效应,提升综合正效应,增强系统的可持续发展能力。本研究的模型及调控过程能够为类似的生态经济系统优化研究提供借鉴和参考。