Social segregation and academic achievement in state-run elementary schools in the municipality of Campinas, Brazil

Space not only reflects social inequality, it also reinforces the advantages or disadvantages associated with social class. However, the study of how neighbourhoods affect their residents has only recently entered the debate on urban poverty in Latin America. We use 2000 data from the Brazilian population census, school census, and the state of São Paulo’s educational evaluation system to analyze the relationship between school infrastructure, school academic achievement, and the neighbourhoods in which these schools are located. Our analyses indicate that state-run elementary schools located in areas of concentrated poverty have lower academic achievement in mathematics tests and Portuguese than mixed and affluent areas of the city, even though these schools are all administered by the same government body. We end with a discussion of the relationship between Brazilian education policy and its influence on spatial differences in São Paulo State.     

Identifying urban–rural differences in social vulnerability to natural hazards: a case study of China

Identifying and analyzing the urban–rural differences of social vulnerability to natural hazards is imperative to ensure that urbanization develops in a way that lessens the impacts of disasters and generate building resilient livelihoods in China. Using data from the 2000 and 2010 population censuses, this study conducted an assessment of the social vulnerability index (SVI) by applying the projection pursuit cluster model. The temporal and spatial changes of social vulnerability in urban and rural areas were then examined during China’s rapid urbanization period. An index of urban–rural differences in social vulnerability (SVI_D) was derived, and the global and local Moran’s I of the SVI_D were calculated to assess the spatial variation and association between the urban and rural SVI. In order to fully determine the impacts of urbanization in relation to social vulnerability, a spatial autoregressive model and Bivariate Moran’s I between urbanization and SVI were both calculated. The urban and rural SVI both displayed a steadily decreasing trend from 2000 to 2010, although the urban SVI was always larger than the rural SVI in the same year. In 17.5% of the prefectures, the rural SVI was larger than the urban SVI in 2000, but was smaller than the urban SVI in 2010. About 12.6% of the urban areas in the prefectures became less vulnerable than rural areas over the study period, while in more than 51.73% of the prefectures the urban–rural SVI gap decreased over the same period. The SVI_D values in all prefectures had a significantly positive spatial autocorrelation and spatial clusters were apparent. Over time, social vulnerability to natural hazards at the prefecture-level displayed a gathering–scattering pattern across China. Though a regional variation of social vulnerability developed during China’s rapid urbanization, the overall trend was for a steady reduction in social vulnerability in both urban and rural areas.

     

Population growth and urbanization in Latin America

The population of Latin America will be increasing by 130 % between 1970 and the year 2000. Due to excessive rural exodus the urban population grows almost twice as fast as the rural does. The urbanization of the subcontinent must be regarded as being the dominant spatial process in Latin America. It results in fundamental changes of the structure and the way of life of the population as well as in the size and character of the settlements. Three case studies (Popayán/Colombia, Sucre/Bolivia and Santiago/Chile) show that a process of westernization can be observed within the analogous to their size, in the course of which the compact structure of the colonial town pattern is succeeded by a sectorially or cellularly arranged cityorganism. From today's point of view a definite judgement on urbanization as a relevant phenomenon of development cannot yet be made. It can be stated, however, that the southern countries of Latin America which have been urbanized the most show distinct signs of a social and economic “take off”.     

Spatial-temporal disease mapping of illicit drug abuse or dependence in the presence of misaligned ZIP codes

Geo-referenced data often are collected in small, administrative units such as census enumeration districts or postal code areas. Such areas vary in geographic area and population size and may change over time. In research into drug-related health issues within the United States, U.S. Postal Service ZIP codes represent a commonly used unit for data collection, storage, and spatial analysis because of their widespread availability in health databases through patient contact and billing information. However, the ZIP code was developed for the specific purpose of delivering mail and may be changed at any time, and its design and development does not take into consideration problems that may arise in data collection, analysis, and presentation in health studies. In this paper, we propose a spatial hierarchical modeling approach to quantify trends within ZIP-code based counts when some fraction of ZIP codes change over the study period, that is, when the data are spatially misaligned across time. We propose a data vector approach and adjust the spatial auto-correlation structure within our Bayesian hierarchical model to provide inference for our misaligned data. We motivate and illustrate our approach to explore spatio-temporal patterns of amphetamine abuse and/or dependence in Tracy, California over the years 1995–2005. Uncertainty associated with misaligned data is modeled, quantified, and visualized. The approach offers a framework for further investigation into other risk factors in order to more fully understand the dynamics of illicit drug abuse or dependence across time and space in imperfectly measured data.     

Urbanization and spatial structure in Hungary

The last four decades have brought fundamental changes in Hungarian urbanization. The number of towns has increased from 54 to 166 and the number of settlements with a population over 100 000 has grown from 3 to 8, and the number of small towns with a population just over 30 000 has increased four times compared to the situation at the beginning of the century. While urban concentration has been growing, there has been a degradation of rural settlements, especially in the category of less than 500 inhabitants. This study deals with the spatial structure of Hungarian settlements, categorizing the towns according to their regional roles, population and dynamics of growth. The changes of their social and economic spheres influence their internal structures. The study attempts to summarize all the territorial, regional consequences of the recent social and economic changes that have been defining or modifying the urban development in Hungarian settlements.     

Population pressure and areas of potential rural development in Southern Nigeria

The spatial analysis of agricultural development is the necessary precondition for research in the rural landscape and for rural planning. Basic data emerging from field investigation and a systematic interpretation of aerial photographs have resulted in a series of thematic maps of Southern Nigeria and parts of Western Cameroon. This comprehensive research work has been organized within the framework of the Afrika-Kartenwerk of the German Research Society.In this paper our recently published population map of the scale of 1:1 million and the map of rural settlement patterns form the basis for some rather general estimates of agricultural potential. Exact spatial information of simple but non the less most important regional processes, like migration, are caused by population pressure. Not bare statistical figures but their transformation by cartographic means forms a fundament for area studies and hypothetical prospects for regional planning as well as for regional analysis.By larger scale observations agricultural carrying capacity, evaluation of rural potential, migration dynamics and changes of land-use systems have to be analyzed. This calls for meticulous studies of individual areas. The first of three such case studies stresses the process of intensification of land utilization near the Nsukka-Escarpment. Linear settlement patterns and chains of regular individually owned stripfields can be seen as inprints of a dynamic transformation within the cultural landscape. Reception of new agricultural technology has been a way for emigrant farmers to exploit traditionally sparsely utilized zones with rich soils, which had been less attractive, because they were hard to cultivate with the hoe.The second case deals with the well known migratory and agro-economic links between the overpopulated food crop belt of Northern Yoruba Savannah Country and the cocoabelt in the rain forest about 100 km further south.In Central Iboland rural overpopulation of more than 1000 persons per km² and land shortage theoretically could be diminished by opening up uninhabited areas of the Niger flood-plain and the delta for modern agricultural exploitation. But not only the physical obstacles such as there are poor soils, very high rainfall and seasonal floods within the Niger low lands are hindering rural colonization. Social and political factors, like ethnic traditions and historic barriers still seem to be very perserverant. All this hardly allows strangers to get hold of unused land, to exploit valuable natural resources or to introduce modern agricultural technology. But generally speaking, population pressure as well as higher demand for social services and better incomes result in changes in the traditional land-use systems. The impact of growing urban or industrial economic spheres on agriculture acts as accelerating factor in this development. A paradise-landscape for Africa where optimal utilization of all physical resources under best socio-economic conditions may be practiced and where more than ten times of the present population of Africa could exist, as CAROL puts it in one of his scenarios (1973 and 1975), seems to be quite unrealistic and really never will be desirable.     

Do alternative spatial healthcare access measures tell the same story?

To effectively target area and population with relatively poorer healthcare access requires information on how access to healthcare varies spatially. Considering hospitals as important components of the healthcare system, this case study of Central Missouri presents a comparison of the relatively underserved areas and population based on the results from three alternative indicators of spatial hospital access calculated at three different levels of geography. Results indicate that the alternative spatial healthcare access indicators show considerably different pictures of the relative ranking of census units, and identification of the relatively underserved areas and population. The relative ranking of census units and the identification of relatively underserved area and population are all critical indicators for policy makers when public resources are limited and distributive choices must be made.     

Rural gentrification in Catalonia, Spain: A case study of migration, social change and conflicts in the Empordanet area

The intensity of rural depopulation in Catalonia has diminished since the 1980s. New population growth patterns are occurring in rural areas, basically due to immigration. Although there has been a certain awareness of the magnitude of this process and its territorial distribution, little is known about the protagonists in this immigration and the impact on rural municipalities. Results are presented from a study of the immigration process in a group of rural inland municipalities close to the Costa Brava, a Mediterranean coastal region with extensive tourism. The great beauty of the landscape and the existence of housing stock that is being abandoned but remains desirable have led to a population influx from Catalonia’s large urban areas, especially Barcelona, purchasing these homes as a primary or secondary residence.This has led to rehabilitation of the housing stock, but also to higher housing prices and the resulting exodus of the young local population that cannot afford them; a potential source of conflict between the local population and the newcomers. The study is based on census data and statistical records, as well as extensive fieldwork, including interviews with local residents, newcomers and key informants.     

Changing poverty distribution in Bolivia: the role of rural–urban migration and urban services

Bolivia is a country with high levels of poverty and inequality among its peoples and regions. For the nation and its urban and rural areas, trends in the social and spatial distribution of poverty (and extreme poverty) are identified from 1976 to 2003 using UBN data with minor support where appropriate from poverty lines. The main survey between 1992 and 2001 uses composite and selected UBN to track detailed poverty change for the country’s nine departments, its ten largest cities and a selection of other smaller urban and rural municipalities. Because of rising background increases in population in the various surveyed administrative units, many instances of relative reductions in poverty are accompanied by rising absolute increases. Marked spatial variations in poverty and development in the country over the last several decades are identified as the main driver for the country’s quickening pace of rural–urban migration. As a result, the paper concludes by assessing two different but closely related views. One investigation tests the notion that because more poor people have been living in Bolivia’s cities than in its rural areas since the mid to late 1990s, rapid rural–urban migration has simply shifted the locus of poverty from the countryside to the cities in a process called, the ‘urbanisation of poverty.’ A second, more challenging, investigation assesses the view that the flow of poor rural people to the better serviced urban areas of Bolivia has actually acted to alleviate national poverty levels.     

Probabilistic GIS-based method for delineation of urban flooding risk hotspots

Identifying urban flooding risk hotspots is one of the first steps in an integrated methodology for urban flood risk assessment and mitigation. This work employs three GIS-based frameworks for identifying urban flooding risk hotspots for residential buildings and urban corridors. This is done by overlaying a map of potentially flood-prone areas [estimated through the topographic wetness index (TWI)], a map of residential areas and urban corridors [extracted from a city-wide assessment of urban morphology types (UMT)], and a geo-spatial census dataset. A maximum likelihood method (MLE) is employed for estimating the threshold used for identifying the flood-prone areas (the TWI threshold) based on the inundation profiles calculated for various return periods within a given spatial window. Furthermore, Bayesian parameter estimation is employed in order to estimate the TWI threshold based on inundation profiles calculated for more than one spatial window. For different statistics of the TWI threshold (e.g. MLE estimate, 16th percentile, 50th percentile), the map of the potentially flood-prone areas is overlaid with the map of urban morphology units, identified as residential and urban corridors, in order to delineate the urban hotspots for both UMT. Moreover, information related to population density is integrated by overlaying geo-spatial census datasets in order to estimate the number of people affected by flooding. Differences in exposure characteristics have been assessed for a range of different residential types. As a demonstration, urban flooding risk hotspots are delineated for different percentiles of the TWI value for the city of Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.     

From sprawl to compactness and back: population dynamics (1848–2011) and the economic structure of a Mediterranean city

In the recent decades southern European cities experienced morphological changes and a demographic transition towards zero (or negative) growth and aging. Population dynamics shifted from the impressive growth of the post-industrial period into recent de-concentration processes determining the spillover of commercial and residential settlements across the surrounding rural areas. Based on long-term demographic data, the present study hypothesizes that urban expansion did not follow a one-way linear path from compactness to dispersion while reflecting differentiated growth patterns based on the specific socioeconomic context at the local scale. Along a sufficiently long time period non-linear expansion waves alternating settlement densification and scattering are expected to be found especially in complex urban contexts such as those developed in the Mediterranean region. This hypothesis was tested for a paradigmatic case study in southern Europe (Athens, Greece) using demographic data covering 160 years (1848–2011). Urban growth in Athens was assessed through the analysis of long-term census data made available on a district level. These data provide information on the spatial distribution of resident population and characterize distinct expansion waves according to the dominant socioeconomic context. Results of the study were discussed in the light of the debate on future development of the Mediterranean cities and the (changing) economic relations with the surrounding region.     

Population growth and urbanization in Latin America

The population of Latin America will be increasing by 130 % between 1970 and the year 2000. Due to excessive rural exodus the urban population grows almost twice as fast as the rural does. The urbanization of the subcontinent must be regarded as being the dominant spatial process in Latin America. It results in fundamental changes of the structure and the way of life of the population as well as in the size and character of the settlements.Three case studies (Popayán/Colombia, Sucre/Bolivia and Santiago/Chile) show that a process of westernization can be observed within the analogous to their size, in the course of which the compact structure of the colonial town pattern is succeeded by a sectorially or cellularly arranged cityorganism.From today's point of view a definite judgement on urbanization as a relevant phenomenon of development cannot yet be made. It can be stated, however, that the southern countries of Latin America which have been urbanized the most show distinct signs of a social and economic take off.     

Analyzing spatial disparities in access to health care: A methodology with application in Bangladesh

This paper develops a methodology for analyzing spatial disparities in access to health care in situations where the data base is limited, and applies it in the context of Bangladesh. The proposed indirect measures of inpatient and outpatient service utilization, and of quality of available services, seem to provide reasonably accurate, consistent, and interpretable results; these indices are combined into a composite index of relative access to health care. The form of the composite index and its components permits the incorporation of Sopher's disparity index into the methodology for measuring urban-rural disparities in relative access to health care. The empirical analysis based on subdivision level data revealed that Bangladesh's health care delivery system is, in general, characterized by extremely low level of access and a high degree of disparity in favor of urban areas, especially in terms of inpatient services. Spatial patterns of relative access and urban/rural disparity were perused through cartographic and statistical analyses; although clear-cut regional patterns did not emerge, the considerable spatial variations could be explained largely with reference to urbanization and density of population. Assuming improved level of access and minimal urban/rural disparity as basic policy goals a method to prioritize spatial units for future allocation of health sector resources is recommended.The author gratefully acknowledges the helpful comments on an earlier draft of this paper by Dr. S. M. Bhardwaj, Professor of Geography, Kent State University.     

Water and poverty in the United States

Contrary to reports of 100% access to safe water and sanitation in international surveys, the United States (US) has a complex landscape of low-income water problems. This paper begins with a critical international perspective on water and poverty in the US. It shows that the US had a declining role in international water programs during the late-20th century, which contributed to limited international awareness of low-income water programs in the US, and limited US awareness of low-income water issues. To address the first problem, we provide an overview of low-income water programs in the US with an emphasis on those that serve small communities. We then examine census data on inadequate water systems in Colorado, which indicate that severe plumbing deficiencies persist despite these public water programs. Inadequate plumbing rates are lower than income poverty rates, however, which indicate partially successful strategies for achieving low-income water services. Analysis of local data in urban, rural, and mountainous areas of the state shows that poverty and water problems are correlated in complex ways, which has implications for all nations striving for universal access to safe water and sanitation.     

基于RS、GIS的人口空间分布研究

人口的空间分布问题涉及人口学、经济学、地理学等多个学科,统计型人口数据的空间化是"数字地球"的重要研究内容。阐述了人口地域分布的基本理论,回顾了人口空间分布的研究进展,结合研究实践,提出了在遥感、GIS技术支持下,统计型人口数据空间化的研究思路和技术流程,并对该方法的特点和应用前景做了展望。     

The geographic distribution of metals in urban soils: the case of Syracuse,NY

A paucity of literature currently exists pertaining to the high-resolution geographic distribution of metal contaminants across urban areas. Thousands of soil samples were collected across Syracuse, NY to secure empirical evidence about such geographic distributions. Metal measurements were made with XRF technology, with quality assessments based upon replicate samples as well as ICP technology summarized here. Both metal covariations and their spatial structure are described, followed by mapping of selected metal measurements based upon sample points, as well as census block group and census tract aggregates. A simple comparison is presented between certain of these empirical results and a selected non-urban landscape (a river floodplain). Finally, implications drawn from the empirical evidence presented include covariation assessments with selected census data that serve as surrogates for poverty.     

Making the countryside more like the countryside? Rural planning and metropolitan visions in post-quake Chengdu

In 2008, an 8.0-magnitude earthquake struck southwest China less than 100 km north of Chengdu, the booming capital of Sichuan Province. The city government undertook a massive reconstruction project in its rural hinterlands that was guided by existing policies to develop rural areas through coordinated urban and rural planning. Planners sought to avoid replicating urban settlements in rural areas by developing recognizably “pastoral” villages, an approach that is being widely echoed in the relatively new discipline of rural spatial planning in China. This paper argues that such design concessions evade the key feature of the new villages: the concentration of rural residents. The Chengdu government, though this symbolic and actual de-peopling of rural landscapes, has recast rural space as an environmental amenity and an abstract stock of arable land. Drawing on interviews, site visits, and policy and media documents, the paper analyzes the metropolitan plans that provided the framework for rural reconstruction in post-quake Chengdu, and connects these to a model village site in Chengdu’s rural periphery. The case illustrates the need to understand site-level village planning in the context of regional political economies of land, and highlights the new role that metropolitan governments are playing in rural development strategies.     

The 1979 Census and some demographic trends in the Soviet Union

Recent demographic trends in the USSR are analyzed using preliminary 1979 census results that were published by the Soviet press in a central report issued on April 22, 1979, and in regional reports issued between April 25 and May 25, 1979. Topics discussed include regional patterns of change in the total population; urban and rural population; trends in the growth of major cities; changes in the sex ratio, particularly in urban areas; and trends in inter-regional and inter-republic migration.     

Welfare reform and the intra-regional migration of beneficiaries in New Zealand

This paper investigates the net effect of major cuts in welfare benefits and associated changes in the delivery of housing assistance on the relocation behavior of beneficiaries. It does so against an international literature which has documented the tendency of welfare recipients to adjust their costs of living by moving from urban to rural settlements. The paper reviews the literature on welfare and migration, introduces a theoretical framework based on a metropolitan labour market and then tests several hypotheses about the possible effects of benefits cuts on spatial adjustment. The research design uses quinquennial census data to compare core beneficiary relocation patterns with those of non-beneficiaries before and after the cuts to welfare benefits in the Wellington region of New Zealand in 1991. The period following the benefit cuts in New Zealand was characterised by increasing job opportunities which helped to mitigate their adverse effect and made it difficult to identify a more general down-market residential adjustment. While a downward adjustment in housing consumption by core beneficiaries was identified, residential movement from urban to the cheaper settlements in adjacent rural areas was only observed from former State house areas where the income effects of benefit cuts were compounded by increases in rents on former State houses. Thus, while this paper supports the findings of independent sample survey work, our census based analysis underscores the highly contingent nature of that response. Evidence of urban-rural migration is placed in the context of the government's `remote area policy' which attempts to dissuade beneficiaries (who are receiving a social security benefit related to their employment status) from moving without good reason to `remote' locations where job prospects are weak. The paper raises the more general policy issue where benefit cuts, designed to stimulate more active job searching among the unemployed, actually prompt some beneficiaries to relocate to the urban fringe and in some cases to remote parts of the country where job prospects are weak. The theoretical and policy implication of this paper is that there are geographical correlates to the reservation wage which need to be integrated into thinking about the participation consequences of setting benefit levels.     

Kenya’s Secondary Cities Growth Strategy at a Crossroads: Which Way Forward?

Kenya has been promoting equitable urban and regional development since the 1970s despite the lack of a clearly formulated national urban policy or an urban and regional development policy. A key element of the country’s equitable urban and regional development effort is the promotion of secondary cities that would relieve population pressure in the countryside, help to better integrate the country’s rural and urban economies, help to reduce congestion and improve the quality of life in the metropolitan cities of Nairobi and Mombasa, and help increase the modernization spin-off which urban centers provide to the surrounding rural areas. Using recent census and economic survey data, this paper examines the current state of Kenya’s secondary cities in the context of its urban and regional development strategies. The paper finds that: (1) the country’s urban and regional development strategies have failed to work as planned largely because of insufficient devolution of power and fiscal responsibility to municipal and other local government units, (2) the country’s secondary cities are faced with immense challenges that undermine their ability to live up to expectations, (3) some of these cities have significantly grown economically over the last four decades despite immense challenges, and (4) Nairobi’s dominance of Kenya’s economy continues because of policies that unwittingly concentrate investments there. The paper concludes with strategies that could enhance the country’s urban and regional development programs and, in the process, aid the development of its secondary cities.