用断裂滑动速率估计小江断裂带的地震危险性

本通过小江断裂带的地震活动规律,认为断裂在具有特征地震复发行为的同时,在特征地震之间还有次级破坏性地震。故推导了滑动速度、离逝时间与潜在震级之间的关系,并计算了小江断裂带中段主要段落的潜在地震震级。潜在地震级较高的段有小江西支断裂非段和小江东支断裂东南段,其潜在震级都接近７级。     

THE CENOZOIC TECTONICS AND SEISMIC ACTIVITY OF XINZHENG-TAIKANG FAULT IN THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF TAIKANG AREA

On the basis of dividing and comparison of the Neogene strata and their bottoms revealed by 7 drill holes in Taikang area, we completed 101 seismic profiles with a total length of 4991km. Seismic data were compared and interpreted. The results indicate that Xinzheng-Taikang Fault, as a blind fault extending from Xinzheng to Taikang, which was considered as an EW striking fault from Xuchang to Taikang before, is the boundary of Taikang uplift and Zhoukou depression, controlling the sedimentation since Neogene Period. So we named the fault the Xinzheng-Taikang Fault, which is composed of two branches, mainly, the east and west branches. The west branch strikes northwest, dipping northeast with steep angles, and the fault plane extending more than 140km in length. As revealed on the seismic profiles, the eastern segment of the west branch is normal fault, while the west segment of the branch shows characteristics of strike-slip fault. The east branch trends NW-NEE, dipping SW-SSE with the length of about 50km. Two branches form a minus flower structure, indicating the strike slip-extension tectonic background. The bottom of Neogene strata is offset about 120m by the east branch, 20m by the west branch, and the bottom of Quaternary is probably offset too. Meanwhile, latest studies suggest that the composite strip of the two branches of Xinzheng-Taikang Fault, which is a tectonic transfer zone, is the subduction zone between the two strike-slip faults. The tectonic stress tends to be released by the east-west branch fault, and the zone should be the seismogenic structure for the recent seismicity in Taikang area. In 2010, the latest earthquake ofM_S4.7 occurred in this area, causing 12 people wounded. The seismogenic structure was considered to be the Xinzheng-Taikang Fault. So locating the fault exactly is of great importance to disaster prevention.     

安宁河断裂带晚第四纪运动特征及模式的讨论

安宁河断裂带是中国西南地区一条重要的地震活动断层, 地方志记载公元1536年曾发生过震级大于7级的破坏性地震. 详细的断裂地貌航片解译和野外调查表明, 安宁河断裂带除具有主要的左旋走滑断层活动外,还兼有重要的逆冲运动分量. 根据冲沟和阶地面的位错量及其热释光测年结果估计,该断裂带晚更新世以来平均左旋走滑速率为3~7 mm/a. 根据滑移方向与断层走向的关系,推测跨安宁河断裂带东西向由于逆冲断层运动造成的挤压缩短速率约为1.7~4.0 mm/a; 简单分解鲜水河断裂带上的滑动速率,估计分配在大凉山断裂带上的滑动速率与安宁河断裂带上的大致相当,约为3~7 mm/a. 此外,根据野外调查结果,并结合最近青藏高原构造动力学研究的新认识, 建立了安宁河断裂带的动力学模型,认为安宁河断裂带是一条逆冲走滑断裂带. 其下盘（西盘）主动向南东方向下插,造成了上盘（东盘）向北西方向的上冲运动.      

关于“城市活断层探测与地震危险性评价工作大纲(试行)”的几点认识

“十五”期间即将实施20个省会级城市的活断层探测与地震危险性评价工程。文中对该工程的技术指导性文件“城市活断层探测与地震危险性评价工作大纲(试行)”的基本内容和领会要点进行了阐述。对“工作大纲”的5大属性(科学性、普适性、包容性、可操作性、约束性)作了说明,对探测工程的主要对象活断层和地震活断层进行了界定,对工作区和目标区的内涵及工作途径的差别做了解释。分析了工程所面对的3个层次的科学问题和实施过程中的5个步骤,并对每个步骤中需要注意的事项和应采取的对策分别进行了探讨。文章阐述了探测过程中安排中期验收的必要性,指出本工程是以往各震害防御工作的延续、发展与深入     

PALEOSEIMOLOGY AND LATE QUATERNARY SLIP RATE OF THE YOUSHASHAN FAULT AT SOUTHWESTERN MARGIN OF QAIDAM BASIN

The Youshashan Fault lies in the south flank of Yingxiongling anticline, southwestern margin of Qaidam Basin. The Yingxiongling anticline is one of the most active neotectonics, situated at the front of folds expanding southward in the Qaidam Basin. Research on the paleoseimology and Late Quaternary slip rate of this fault is important for hazard assessment and understanding tectonic deformation in this area. We excavated a 27-m-long trench across the Youshashan fault where a pressure bridge formed on the Holocene alluvial fans, measured a profile of the fold scarp created by the fault west of the Youshashan mountain, and collected several samples of finer sands for luminescence dating. Analysis of these data shows that(1) The Youshashan Fault is a Holocene active feature. The fold scarp in the basin indicates that this fault has been active along a same surface trace since at least mid-late Pleistocene. At least two paleoseismic events are revealed by trenching, both occurred in Holocene. The latest event Ⅱ in the trench happened after 500a. The current information fails to confidently support that it is the 1977 Mangya M6.4 earthquake, but cannot excludes the possibility of it is related to this earthquake. The other event Ⅰ occurred about between 1 000a to 4 000a. Erosion after the event Ⅰ prevents us to constrain the event age and to identify more events further. (2)The vertical slip rate of the Youshashan fault is about(0.38±0.06)mm/a since mid-late Pleistocene. Comparing with relative speeds of GPS sites across the Yingxiongling anticline suggests that the Youshashan fault is an important structure which is accommodating crustal shortening in this region.     

石屏——建水断裂带未来三十年内七级以上大地震危险性分析

本文通过对历史上曾发生过多次强烈地震的石屏—建水断裂带结构特征、新活动表现特点及1799年与1887年两次石屏大地震的发震构造、震害分布情况的分析研究,得出该断裂带全新世平均水平滑动速率为3—3.6毫米/年;1799年与1887年两次大地震震级分别达7级与7.5级,以及该断裂未来三十年内发生7级以上大地震可能性不大的结论。     

凤凰山地区蒲江-新津-德阳隐伏断裂反射波法地震勘探与断裂活动性研究

利用反射波法地震勘探确定了在凤凰山地区蒲江-新津-德阳隐伏断裂通过的具体位置以及断裂的规模和性质,证明了该断裂在向东俯冲的过程中错切了晚更新统沉积物,具有明显的第四纪活动性,对凤凰山台地的形成起到了一定的控制作用。地面地质调查及历史地震研究也证明蒲江-新津-德阳隐伏断裂具有晚更新世活动性,且断裂南段的活动性明显强于北段,表明该断裂的北段是成都平原内部的一条弱地震活动带。同时,文中还对在城市近郊人烟繁杂地带反射波法地震勘探中野外观测系统的布置及地震参数的选取进行了探索,小道间距、小偏移距、多接收道、短排列、多次覆盖、高频检波器接收的工作方法和野外地震参数的合理选取对实现主要干扰波和反射波信号的有效分离,提高地震勘探分辨率起到了至关重要的作用     

THE 2008 AND 2009 QAIDAM,CHINA EARTHQUAKES:INSAR ANALYSIS FOR COSEISMIC DISPLACEMENTS AND INVERSION FOR FAULT MODELS

This study focuses on four moderate-sized earthquakes in the northern margin of the Qaidam Basin, northeastern Tibet Plateau, China, of which one occurred in 2008, and three in 2009, respectively. We obtain coseismic displacement fields of these four events using Envisat descending ASAR data and D-InSAR technology. The results show that the 2008 earthquake has only one deformation center and the 2009 earthquakes have three deformation centers in their fields. The maximum displacement of 2008 and 2009 earthquakes are 0.097m and 0.41m in the LOS(line of sight), respectively. We invert ground displacements of these earthquakes based on elastic dislocation models to estimate slip distribution on fault planes. For the 2008 event, using a one-segment fault model, the inversion reveals peak slip of about 0.47m occurring at a depth of 19km. For the 2009 earthquakes, the ground displacement pattern observed by InSAR can be fitted by a three-segment fault model with smallest RMS of residuals. The three sectional fault model is considered the most reliable.     

乌鲁木齐城市活断层探测与地震危险性评价主要成果简介

以乌鲁木齐市建成区和规划区作为探测目标区,对区内的活动断层及其深部发震构造进行了系统的探测,对活动断层的危险性和危害性进行了初步评价。根据断层活动性鉴定,确定目标区内存在2组全新世活动断层,即王家沟断层组和九家湾断层组。前者为近EW向的北倾逆断层,后者为NE走向的北倾正断层。晚更新世活动断层为八钢-石化隐伏断层、西山断层、碗窑沟断层和白杨南沟断层。深部发震构造探测揭示出目标区所处的北天山山前薄皮推覆构造及其前缘逆断层-褶皱的清楚结构,结合流动地震观测和小震精确定位等,建立了目标区活动断层的发震构造模型。通过古地震探槽和地震活动性研究对目标区全新世活动断层和晚更新世活动断层的地震危险性进行了评价;并在此基础上对可能发生的直下型大地震所引起的强地震动进行了预测,对全新世活动断层可能产生的地表错动带和晚更新世活动断层可能引起的地表变形带进行了预测     

DISCUSSION ON THE TIMING AND ITS TECTONIC SIGNIFICANCE OF ANGULAR UNCONFORMITY IN HETAO BASIN IN THE LATE QUATERNARY SEDIMENTS

The interaction between the continental-continental collision of the Indian-Eurasian plate and the westward underthrusting of Pacific plate is generally considered to be the cause of the destruction of North China Craton. At present, there are still doubts in the researches worldwide about the dynamic mechanism of the formation and evolution of the Ordos peripheral fault-depression system and the contemporary tectonic stress field.
The Hetao Basin is a Cenozoic fault basin located between the Ordos block and the Yinshan Mountains. Due to the effect of uplift of the Tibet Plateau and the continuous subduction of the Pacific plate, graben faulting of different intensities occurred in different periods of Cenozoic around the Ordos block. Late Quaternary lacustrine facies sedimentary strata are widely developed in Hetao Basin. The Haolaigou profile, Bianqianhao profile and the Langshan profile in this study are all located in Hetao Basin. According to the lithology and structural analysis of the upper Pleistocene series in the three profiles, angular unconformities of phase 1-2 are recorded in the lacustrine facies sediments with a thickness of about 10m. The dating results of the Haolaigou profile, Bianqianhao profile and Langshan profile show that the formation time of both unconformities is 80ka BP.
Using the tectonic geology, Quaternary geology, stratigraphy, sedimentology and a variety of dating methods, we also carry out a comprehensive study and obtain the following results:
(1)The analysis of lithological and structural features of Haolaigou profile, Bianqianghao profile and Langshan profile in the Hetao Basin shows that multi-phase angular unconformities events are recorded in the lacustrine strata of a thickness of nearly 10m. These unconformities represent the tectonic movement in the late Pleistocene period since the 80ka BP and they may be widely distributed in the North China region. They are probably the direct products of the latest tectonic movement in the Quaternary period.
(2)The present tectonic movement initiates at about 80ka BP. It not only causes multiple angular unconformity events, but also leads to the disappearance of the Hetao ancient lake. The rapid regional epeirogenetic uplifting of the Ordos block since 76.4ka BP should also be the specific manifestation of this tectonic movement. Because of the influence of the accelerated uplifting and eastward spreading of the Qinghai-Tibet plateau in the late Quaternary, the NEE thrusting effect of the Ordos block is enhanced and affected.     

冷龙岭活动断裂的滑动速率研究

根据对冷龙岭断裂重点地段的野外调查,研究了该断裂的几何特征及浮雕劝速率。结果表明：该断裂为一条全新世活动断层,由一组近于平行的次级断裂所组成。按总体特征可将该断裂分为３段,中更新世以来各时代的断裂平均滑动速率分别为：中更新世：２．１４～４．６４ｍｍ／ａ,晚更新世：２．８６～４．０７ｍｍ／ａ,全新世：３．３５～４．６２ｍｍ／ａ,全新世以来该断裂平均垂直滑动速率为０．３８ｍｍ／ａ。     

祁连山中东段断裂的地震危险性分析

利用祁连山中东段活动断裂的定量参数和“时间相依”的概率模型,对该地区断裂在未来一定时段内的发震概率进行了分析,认为该地区老虎山－毛毛山断裂的毛毛山段和金强河段的发震概率较高,其他断裂的发震概率很低;未来10年和20年,毛毛山段的发震概率分别为157．6％和29．03％,金强河段的发震概率分别为15．33％和28．41％,2段联合发生7．5级地震的概率分别为28．67％和49．19％,未来50年2段联合发生7．5级地震的概率为81．79％,通过对兰州地区1125年7．0级地震破烈带遗迹的考察,得出马衔山断裂未来50年发生Ms≥7.0地震的概率为19．87％。     

应用统计物理方法分析川滇地区地震危险性

川滇菱形块体及其边界断裂带(21°～33°N,96°～108°E)是中国大陆地震活动最强烈的地区之一,该地区发生的一系列大地震造成了巨大的人员伤亡和财产损失。文中分别应用基于地震空间相关性和地壳形变场的预测方法分析了该地区未来的地震危险性。由Kagan等(1994)提出的基于地震空间相关性的方法,假定未来发生地震的概率与历史发生地震的频度成正比,根据历史地震目录建立统计学模型估计未来发生地震的概率。回溯性检验表明,这种方法对于评估地震复发周期较短的断裂带的地震危险性有较高的有效性,但对于地震复发周期较长的断裂带,如龙门山断裂带,很难给出一个理想的预期。由Shen等(2007)提出的基于地壳形变场的方法,假定长期地震危险性与地壳构造应变率成正比,根据由GPS观测获得的应变率场建立统计学模型评估未来的地震危险性。回溯性检验表明,川滇地区过去30a间发生的地震与区域应变率的大小没有明显的对应关系,但过去500a间发生的地震与应变率场有很高的相关性,表明由10a时间尺度的大地测量资料得到的地壳应变场可以很好地反映数百a时间尺度的地震危险性。     

东昆仑活动断裂带东段古地震活动特征

东昆仑活动断裂托索湖——玛曲以东肯定那一带， 可据阿尼玛卿玛积峰为界再分为花石峡段和玛沁段两个在几何上不连续的段落. 两段在表征断层全新世活动特征的古地震事件方面有明显差异， 花石峡段的地震活动性明显高于玛沁段的地震活动性. 古地震研究表明， 花石峡段上3次强震活动相邻两次地震发生的时间间隔分别约为500 a和640 a， 玛沁段上最近两次古地震事件间大致有1 000 a左右的时间间隔. 根据断层平均滑动速率计算的花石峡段7.5级地震的平均复发间隔为411~608 a， 相对应的同震平均水平位错约为（5.75plusmn;0.57）m. 虽然玛沁段的地震活动性较弱， 但由于该段上最近一次地震事件离现在较为久远， 已经积累的应变能应该使我们对其未来地震危险性的分析有足够重视.      

由地震活动参数分析安宁河-则木河断裂带的现今活动习性及地震危险性

利用区域台网地震资料, 分析了川西安宁河-则木河断裂带不同段落的现今活动习性，进而鉴别潜在大地震危险的断裂段. 文中由异常低b值的分布圈绘出凹凸体，发展和应用了由多个地震活动参数值的组合判定断裂分段活动习性的方法，尝试了利用凹凸体段的震级频度关系参数估计特征地震的平均复发间隔. 结果表明，该研究断裂带存在5个不同现今活动习性的段落. 其中，安宁河断裂的冕宁-西昌段属于高应力下的闭锁段，其核心部分为一较大尺度的凹凸体；则木河断裂的西昌-普格段则表现为低应力下的微弱活动状态. 重新定位的震源深度分布，显示出上述闭锁段和微弱活动段的断层面轮廓. 冕宁-西昌段是未来大地震的潜在危险段. 该段从最晚的1952年6.7级地震起算，至未来特征地震的平均复发间隔估值为55～67年, 未来地震的震级估值为7.0～7.5. 本研究也初步表明，同-断裂段的活动习性可随时间动态演变.      

抚松ML5．0级地震及浑江断裂带地震活动性研究

2009年8月5日在吉林省抚松县发了MML5.0级地震,这次地震发生在浑江断裂带的NE端,是该带历史上发生的最大一次地震.本文介绍和研究了这次地震的基本情况及其与断裂构造的关系,详细的研究了浑江断裂带的地震活动性,并对未来地震趋势进行了预测.     

地震触发响应系数动态图象扫描及华北近期地震危险区预测

从理论上讲,地震之间存在力学相关性,尤其是一个地震带内在临界状态,地震间相互作用增强。利用这种关系用地震触发响应系数扫描方法,可在一个强震发生后预测下次强震发生的地点。地震引起的就力场扰动包括静态、动态扰动,包括断层弹性位错,也有断层蠕动,可以有弹性地震波和粘弹性形变波的传播实现,有弹性变形,也有永久变形,有瞬间的,也有长久的效应等。这方面已提出好多种效应假说,多种效应共同作用的后果是一个。Ａｔ值     

红河断裂带第四纪右旋走滑与尾端拉张转换关系研究

红河断裂带早第四纪以来发生的大规模右旋走滑运动，导致断裂北段尾端的质量亏损，形成了拉张区。右旋走滑量为７．１ｋｍ左右，拉张区右旋方向上的扩张量为５．３５ｋｍ左右，二者相互转换的量级是基本一致的，从而定量地证实了它们之间的成因联系     

华北地区未来50年地震危险性与强震预测研究

本文对文献[1]、[2]的某些结论和结果作了认真的分析和讨论,提出了不同的观点。应用极值理论和b值方法对华北地震区未来50年的地震危险性和活动水平进行了分析,给出了各震级档次地震发生的概率预测。     

浑河断裂现今活动性及抚顺城区段的活动特点研究

对近几十年（特别是近几年）来多处跨浑河断裂的形变测量等资料的研究表明，浑河断裂的现今活动性不十分显著，抚顺城区段浑河断裂带附近现今矿震活动频繁，数处跨断裂形变测量结果，断裂两侧的水平和垂直运动显示出的拉张、沉陷与断裂关系密切，其运动速度均在每年十几毫米以上（个别的可达300mm/a)，对其变形的机理研究认为，煤矿采掘是造成变形的主要原因，而非断裂本身构造活动的结果。