Integrative Modeling and Strategic Planning for Regional Sustainability under Climate Change

Climate change and land use/land cover change have resulted in water shortage, degraded ecosystem services, and increased disaster risks across the world. Developing strategies and measures for achieving regional and global sustainability in the face of these environmental problems is a key topic of current climate change research. This paper provides an overview of the 973 project, entitled “Integrative Modeling and Strategic Planning for Regional Sustainability under Climate Change”, including its background, relative progresses, key scientific questions, major research elements, methodology, and expected outcomes. The proposed research is based on sustainability science, guided by the idea of Orderly Human Activities (OHA), and implemented through an integrated methodology of combining field observations, simulation experiments, and scenario analysis. The main objectives of the project are: to quantify the relationship between human activities and climate change, to assess the impacts of human activities on ecosystem services and human well being in the face of climate change, and to develop an integrated model of climate change, OHA, and regional sustainable development. The ultimate goal is to provide a landscape/regional-scale strategy for sustainable development in the face of climate change. The project is expected to help advance the science and application of landscape sustainability science and land system design, particularly in terms of linking climate change, ecosystem services, and human well-being in the dry land region of China.     

全球气候变化及其影响

全球气候变化及其对社会与自然系统产生的影响已日益受到全世界各国政府与广大民众的关注。与天气和气候有关的灾害给人类生命财产造成的损失日益增大,社会与生态系统似乎变得日趋脆弱。人们关心刚刚过去的20世纪的天气与气候发生了什么变化,更希望了解未来的21世纪,人类居住的地球会出现什么样的气候情景。根据一些国家和地区的观测记录、研究成果以及科学家们对气候变化的评估与预测展望,对全球气候变化问题进行概括。首先阐明20世纪地区性气候变化的事实;并根据政府间气候变化委员会(IPCC)科学技术报告中关于20世纪全球气候变化进行的总结性评估以及对21世纪全球气候变化的预测,作为阐述过去与未来全球气候变化的主要依据。同时,还介绍了一些科学家对IPCC关于全球气候变化的结论所持的不同观点或质疑。还就气候变化对社会与自然系统可能产生的影响略作论述。     

Estimations of climate change impacts on crop production in the Republic of Moldova

Statistical methods for assessing crop sensitivity and vulnerability to climate change in Moldova were demonstrated and the following procedures were discussed: (1) projections of likely agroclimatic change; (2) assessments of crop sensitivity to climate change; and (3) assessments of the impact of climate change on crops. In order to predict the future agroclimate, key meteorological variables were transformed statistically to correspond to changes in plants' heat and water supply characteristics. Sensitivity of crop production was examined for corn and winter wheat. By combining the agroclimatic changes with crop response, possible impacts have been estimated and form a basis for possible adaptation strategies. It was shown that regional climate change can result in elevated aridity of Moldova's territory, especially during periods of crop growth. Cultivation of cereal crops in new agroclimatic conditions without adaptation measures will negatively affect yields, especially of winter wheat, whose yield decrease may be 18–39% by 2020s and 22–50% by 2050s. Corn yields may increase by 0–3% and 1–6%, respectively. As an example of adaptation, it is shown that the use of an increased number of late hybrids results in a 25–35% increase in corn yields. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Impact of climate change on hydrological conditions of Rhine and Upper Danube rivers based on the results of regional climate and hydrological models

The main objective of the Effects of Climate Change On the Inland waterway Networks (ECCONET) EU FP7 project was to assess the effect of climate change on the inland waterway transport network with special emphasis on the Rhine and Upper Danube catchments. The assessment was based on consolidation and analysis of earlier and existing research work as well as application of existing climate change and hydrological modelling tools. A key premise at the planning stage of the project had been that all impact studies conducted within ECCONET should be comparable with each other. This can be guaranteed by the common meteorological and hydrological basis. The climate model simulations, which are the most physics- and process-oriented tools for projecting the future climate evolution, include several uncertainties. In addition, uncertainties exist in the hydrological model simulations. In ECCONET, an effort was made to quantify the uncertainty range by using “representative projections” that represent both the lower and upper signals of hydrological low-flow parameters for 2021–2050 over the Rhine catchment. Their evaluation indicated that the finally chosen two regional climate model simulations could be applied also for the Upper Danube catchments as representative projections. The raw climate model outputs have been corrected to the observation data set through application of the linear scaling and the delta-change method. The first impact studies carried out after validation of the hydrological models resulted in discharge scenarios used as input to the economic models in ECCONET.     

Application of Bias Correction and Spatial Disaggregation in Removing Model Biases and Downscaling over China

Global Climate Models (GCM) are the primary tools for studying past climate change and evaluating the projected future response of climate system to changing atmospheric composition. However, the state of art GCMs contain large biases in regional or local scales and are often characterized by low resolution which is too coarse to provide the regional scale information required for regional climate change impact assessment. A popular technique, Bias Correction and Spatial Disaggregation (BCSD), are widespreadly employed to improve the quality of the raw model output and downscaling throughout the world. Unfortunately, this method has not been applied in China. Consequently, the detailed principle and procedure of BCSD are introduced systematically in this study. Furthermore, the applicability of BCSD over China is also examined based on an ensemble of climate models from phase five of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), though the excellent performance of it has been validated for other parts of the world in many works. The result shows that BCSD is an effective, model independent approach to removing biases of model and downscaling. Finally, application scope of BCSD is discussed, and a suite of fine resolution multimodel climate projections over China is developed based on 34 climate models and two emissions scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) from CMIP5.     

Climate change and groundwater conditions in the Mekong Region–A review

Changes in the climatic system introduce uncertainties in the supply and management of water resources. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC) predicts an increase of 2 to 4 °C over the next 100 years. Temperature increases will impact the hydrologic cycle by directly increasing the evaporation of surface water sources. Consequently, changes in precipitation will indirectly impact the flux and storage of water in surface and subsurface reservoirs(i.e., lakes, soil moisture, groundwater, etc.). In addition, increases in temperature contribute to increases in the sea level, which may lead to sea water intrusions, water quality deterioration, potable water shortages, etc. Climate change has direct impacts on the surface water and the control of storage in rivers, lakes and reservoirs, which indirectly controls the groundwater recharge process. The main and direct impact of climate change on groundwater is changes in the volume and distribution of groundwater recharge. The impact of climate change on groundwater resources requires reliable forecasting of changes in the major climatic variables and accurate estimations of groundwater recharge. A number of Global Climate Models(GCMs) are available for understanding climate and projecting climate change.These GCMs can be downscaled to a basin scale, and when they are coupled with relevant hydrological models, the output of these coupled models can be used to quantify the groundwater recharge, which will facilitate the adoption of appropriate adaptation strategies under the impact of climate change.     

Assessing the impact of future climate change on groundwater recharge in Galicia-Costa, Spain

Climate change can impact the hydrological processes of a watershed and may result in problems with future water supply for large sections of the population. Results from the FP5 PRUDENCE project suggest significant changes in temperature and precipitation over Europe. In this study, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was used to assess the potential impacts of climate change on groundwater recharge in the hydrological district of Galicia-Costa, Spain. Climate projections from two general circulation models and eight different regional climate models were used for the assessment and two climate-change scenarios were evaluated. Calibration and validation of the model were performed using a daily time-step in four representative catchments in the district. The effects on modeled mean annual groundwater recharge are small, partly due to the greater stomatal efficiency of plants in response to increased CO₂ concentration. However, climate change strongly influences the temporal variability of modeled groundwater recharge. Recharge may concentrate in the winter season and dramatically decrease in the summer–autumn season. As a result, the dry-season duration may be increased on average by almost 30 % for the A2 emission scenario, exacerbating the current problems in water supply.     

Coupling Earth System Model and Integrated Assessment Model

According to the guideline of National Key Research and Development Project, this project aims at developing a world-class Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) in China, which will be used to assess the impacts of climate change on economy system. The objects of this project are to ① Improve the spatial resolution of Earth System Model (ESM); ② Modify the Integrated Assessment Model; ③ Couple the ESM and IAM; ④ Evaluate the impacts of climate change on society and economy. This project will solve two key scientific questions: how to identify the impacts of climate change in the IAM; How much the impacts of climate change on economy in China. Meanwhile, two techniques will be developed to complete the mission of this project: Simulate of small-scale human activities in the EAM and spatial and temporal resolution match of ESM and IAM.     

气候影响评价中统计降尺度若干问题的探讨

全球气候模式是目前研究未来气候变化的重要工具,然而其较低的空间分辨率使其难以被直接用于区域尺度的气候影响评价中,统计降尺度常常被用于弥补这一不足。对统计降尺度的3种主要方法:转化函数法,天气分型法和天气发生器法的最新研究进展进行了归纳;论述了统计降尺度中的各种不确定性;总结了统计降尺度在中国的发展和应用。统计降尺度与动力降尺度的比较和结合、极端事件的降尺度以及统计降尺度的不确定性将成为未来的主要发展方向。     

Climate change and groundwater resources in Cambodia

Climate change has become a major global concern and threatens the security of natural environmental resources, including groundwater, especially for Cambodia. In this study, literature reviews related to climate change and groundwater resources in Cambodia were evaluated to address the impact of climate change on the groundwater environment. In Cambodia, global climate change will likely affect available water resources by driving changes in the groundwater recharge and usage pattern. Despite a general increase in the mean annual rainfall, a reduction in rainfall is anticipated during the dry season, which could lead to shortages of fresh water during the dry season. The impact of climate change on water resource environments can significantly affect national economic development. Thus, strategic management plansfor groundwater in response to climate change should be established to ensure the security of water resources in Cambodia.     

青藏高原气候系统变化及其对东亚区域的影响与机制研究进展

青藏高原地区特殊的大气圈、水圈、冰冻圈、生物圈等多圈层相互作用过程及其变化,不仅对青藏高原及其周边地区的气候格局和变化有重要影响,而且对东亚、北半球乃至全球的环流形势和异常产生深远影响。为此,全球变化研究重大科学研究计划于2010年9月启动了"青藏高原气候系统变化及其对东亚区域的影响与机制研究"项目,旨在开展青藏高原环境、地表过程、生态系统对全球变化的响应及其对周边地区人类生存环境影响的综合交叉研究,以揭示青藏高原气候系统变化及其对东亚区域的影响机制,提出前瞻性的应对气候变化与异常的策略,减少其导致的区域自然灾害的损失。项目实施近3年来,开展了青藏高原首次"星—机—地"综合立体协同观测试验和大规模地气相互作用综合观测试验。在遥感结合地面观测估算青藏高原地表特征参数和能量通量方法,高原地区上对流层和下平流层结构,高原季风与东亚季风和南亚季风之间的内在联系,中国及青藏高原地区太阳辐射和风速的年代际变化趋势,青藏高原春季感热源减弱及其对亚洲夏季风和中国东部降水的影响,以及极高海拔地区土地覆被格局等方面取得了一些突出进展。     

Spatio-temporal distributions of climate disasters and the response of wheat yields in China from 1983 to 2008

Climate disasters are now on the rise and more likely to increase in frequency and/or severity under climate change in the future. To clearly illustrate spatial–temporal distributions of climate disasters and the response of wheat yields to disasters over the past three decades, several disaster indices including the impact of climate disasters, the sensitivity to climate disasters and the response index of wheat yield losses to climate disasters were defined and calculated. The impact and sensitivity indices were examined by the agricultural production losses due to climate disasters, and the response of wheat yields to climate disasters was assessed by wheat yield loss compared with the 5-year moving average. The results showed that the indices of climate disaster impacts and sensitivities as well as response index of wheat yields to climate disasters could represent the spatial–temporal distributions of climate disasters well in the whole China. Droughts in northern China had higher impacts and sensitivities than those in southern China during the period 1983–2008, but the impacts of floods were opposite. In northern China, although impacted area by drought was larger than that by flood, the flood sensitivities were larger than drought sensitivities when flood happened. Although drought significantly affected wheat yields in most of the regions with drier conditions during 1983–2008 in major wheat-producing regions, better management practices like irrigation and drought-tolerant cultivars applied in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain can adapt to climate disasters especially droughts. To ensure the stability of agricultural production, future food security will need to be achieved through quantifying the relative effects of climate disasters and effective adaptation to increasingly frequent extreme climate events.     

气候变化背景下钙华退化影响因素及其保育措施研究进展

为厘清黄龙钙华退化受气候变化调控规律,探究影响钙华沉积的生物与非生物因素对气候变化产生的响应,通过对钙华相关研究的专著及文献进行分析,从直接影响气候变化的水文因素和大气二氧化碳浓度出发,探索其对钙华退化的影响,表明水文过程及气候变化引起的极端事件是导致钙华退化的主要原因:(1)适宜的气候加速钙华沉积,极端的气候则会引起...     

Decision support method for GHG emission management in industries

Keeping temperature rise well below 2 °C is Paris Climate Agreement’s main commitment and corporate-level participation will be crucial to achieve national mitigation targets. Hence, companies should adopt measures that allow them to adapt to upcoming scenarios where low-carbon production is expected to become mandatory and a great competitive advantage. However, mitigation strategies cannot be evaluated without consideration of subjective environmental criteria. Consequently, lack of decision support methodologies for climate change evaluation in industries is a barrier for innovation. Aiming at consideration of non-monetary aspects, we develop a support method that incorporates costs, benefits, opportunities and risks related to climate change in manufacturing industries. First, we compared the most relevant multi-criteria decision analysis methodologies and identified an Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) as the most suitable for ranking corporate climate change strategies. Then, we collected global analysis criteria from the most important socially responsible investment indices, and climate change scientific studies. To adapt these criteria to the AHP method, each criterion was sorted into benefits, opportunities, costs or risks hierarchies. Proposed method was efficient for assessing long-term subjective criteria and ranking alternatives for GHG emission management in two large manufacturing companies. A sensitivity analysis of the outcome revealed its consistency and flexibility for ranking alternatives and weighting criteria. Finally, the method is not limited to a particular type of industry and it can be adapted to other areas, such as service companies, sanitation or public sector.     

Climate change impacts on U.S. Coastal and Marine Ecosystems

Increases in concentrations of greenhouse gases projected for the 21st century are expected to lead to increased mean global air and ocean temperatures. The National Assessment of Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change (NAST 2001) was based on a series of regional and sector assessments. This paper is a summary of the coastal and marine resources sector review of potential impacts on shorelines, estuaries, coastal wetlands, coral reefs, and ocean margin ecosystems. The assessment considered the impacts of several key drivers of climate change: sea level change; alterations in precipitation patterns and subsequent delivery of freshwater, nutrients, and sediment; increased ocean temperature; alterations in circulation patterns; changes in frequency and intensity of coastal storms; and increased levels of atmospheric CO₂. Increasing rates of sea-level rise and intensity and frequency of coastal storms and hurricanes over the next decades will increase threats to shorelines, wetlands, and coastal development. Estuarine productivity will change in response to alteration in the timing and amount of freshwater, nutrients, and sediment delivery. Higher water temperatures and changes in freshwater delivery will alter estuarine stratification, residence time, and eutrophication. Increased ocean temperatures are expected to increase coral bleaching and higher CO₂ levels may reduce coral calcification, making it more difficult for corals to recover from other disturbances, and inhibiting poleward shifts. Ocean warming is expected to cause poleward shifts in the ranges of many other organisms, including commercial species, and these shifts may have secondary effects on their predators and prey. Although these potential impacts of climate change and variability will vary from system to system, it is important to recognize that they will be superimposed upon, and in many cases intensify, other ecosystem stresses (pollution, harvesting, habitat destruction, invasive species, land and resource use, extreme natural events), which may lead to more significant consequences.     

中国历史时期气候变化对社会发展的影响*

历史时期气候变化对社会发展的影响与人类适应问题,是当前全球变化领域的研究热点之一。近年来,在利用丰富的历史文献资料研究中国历史时期(特别是过去2000年时段)气候变化与人类社会相互作用的过程机理方面取得了一系列新成果。本文将其归纳为3个方面: 理论上,构建了基于粮食安全的气候影响传递过程分析框架;方法上,实现了服务于气候变化影响研究的、基于语义差异的历史社会经济序列定量重建;科学认识上,总结出“冷抑暖扬”而又福祸相依的宏观韵律。在此基础上,对未来研究需要进一步深化的方向进行了展望。     

Hydrological and nitrogen distributed catchment modeling to assess the impact of future climate change at Trichonis Lake, western Greece

According to regional climatic models, climate change may affect Mediterranean lakes significantly in terms of water availability and quality. Trichonis Lake catchment covers a semi-mountainous area of 403 km² including the largest Greek lake by volume (2.6?×?10⁹?m³), located in western Greece. The impact of climate change on the hydrology and water quality of the lake, in terms of lake water level and nutrient concentrations, has been assessed. Water balance estimates and geographical information system tools were then used to set up a physically based, spatially distributed model. The calibrated model was simulated for two future scenarios specified by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: A2 (pessimistic) and B2 (more optimistic), which involved temperature/evaporation/evapotranspiration increase and small precipitation decrease. The model was calibrated efficiently for the 1990–1992 period. The two basic climatic scenarios illustrated that the responses of the lake water levels will show a decrease of 24.2 and 12 cm, respectively, and an increase of total nitrogen concentrations by 3.4 and 10%, in relation to the early 1990s values. These important findings suggest that mitigation and optimum management plans should be developed to eliminate the aforementioned climate change impacts and further research should follow.     

中国全球变化研究的回顾与展望

文中简要回顾了中国全球变化研究的历史 ,指出 ,1986— 1990年是中国国际地圈生物圈计划(IGBP)研究的初期 ,围绕IGBP主要科学问题如古环境、气候和海平面变化以及地气相互作用方面开展了有计划、有组织的研究。1991— 1995年中国全球变化研究有了较大发展 ,研究范围扩展到陆地生态系统 ,全球气候变化预测、影响和对策 ,中国生存环境变化以及生物多样性保护和持续利用等领域。1996— 2 0 0 0年其研究进一步与社会可持续发展相结合 ,成功实施了一批以中国科学家领衔的国际研究计划。随着新世纪的来临 ,中国一系列全球变化大型研究计划相继启动 ,使全球变化研究进入了一个新的发展阶段 ,特别是集成研究方法的应用 ,在解决与公众利益密切相关的由环境恶化所带来的一系列重大问题 ,组织全球变化的区域响应以及全球变化适应性等研究方面得到了深化和加强。     

Climate change and increased risk for the insurance sector: a global perspective and an assessment for the Netherlands

Climate change is projected to increase the frequency and severity of extreme weather events. As a consequence, economic losses caused by natural catastrophes could increase significantly. This will have considerable consequences for the insurance sector. On the one hand, increased risk from weather extremes requires assessing expected changes in damage and including adequate climate change projections in risk management. On the other hand, climate change can also bring new business opportunities for insurers. This paper gives an overview of the consequences of climate change for the insurance sector and discusses several strategies to cope with and adapt to increased risks. The particular focus is on the Dutch insurance sector, as the Netherlands is extremely vulnerable to climate change, especially with regard to extreme precipitation and flooding. Current risk sharing arrangements for weather risks are examined while potential new business opportunities, adaptation strategies, and public–private partnerships are identified.     

Consequences of Climate Change on the Ecogeomorphology of Coastal Wetlands

Climate impacts on coastal and estuarine systems take many forms and are dependent on the local conditions, including those set by humans. We use a biocomplexity framework to provide a perspective of the consequences of climate change for coastal wetland ecogeomorphology. We concentrate on three dimensions of climate change affects on ecogeomorphology: sea level rise, changes in storm frequency and intensity, and changes in freshwater, sediment, and nutrient inputs. While sea level rise, storms, sedimentation, and changing freshwater input can directly impact coastal and estuarine wetlands, biological processes can modify these physical impacts. Geomorphological changes to coastal and estuarine ecosystems can induce complex outcomes for the biota that are not themselves intuitively obvious because they are mediated by networks of biological interactions. Human impacts on wetlands occur at all scales. At the global scale, humans are altering climate at rapid rates compared to the historical and recent geological record. Climate change can disrupt ecological systems if it occurs at characteristic time scales shorter than ecological system response and causes alterations in ecological function that foster changes in structure or alter functional interactions. Many coastal wetlands can adjust to predicted climate change, but human impacts, in combination with climate change, will significantly affect coastal wetland ecosystems. Management for climate change must strike a balance between that which allows pulsing of materials and energy to the ecosystems and promotes ecosystem goods and services, while protecting human structures and activities. Science-based management depends on a multi-scale understanding of these biocomplex wetland systems. Causation is often associated with multiple factors, considerable variability, feedbacks, and interferences. The impacts of climate change can be detected through monitoring and assessment of historical or geological records. Attribution can be inferred through these in conjunction with experimentation and modeling. A significant challenge to allow wise management of coastal wetlands is to develop observing systems that act at appropriate scales to detect global climate change and its effects in the context of the various local and smaller scale effects.