Assessing the impact of climate change on Mogan and Eymir Lakes’ levels in Central Turkey

Global warming is likely to have significant effect on the hydrological cycle. Some parts of the world may see significant reductions in precipitation or major alterations in the timing of wet and dry seasons. Climate change is one of the serious pressures facing water resources and their management over the next few years and decades. As part of the southern belt of Mediterranean Europe, Turkey is highly vulnerable to anticipated climate change impacts. The changes in global climate will seriously affect inland freshwater ecosystems and coastal lakes. Mogan and Eymir Lakes located in Central Turkey are shallow lakes that may be impacted significantly by climate change. The interaction between the lakes and groundwater system has been modelled in order to analyse the response of lake levels to climate change over a planning period of 96 years, beginning from October 2004 and ending in September 2100. The impacts of the emission scenarios of A2 and B1 of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) on lake levels have been analyzed with the help of the lake-aquifer simulation model. The fluctuations in lake levels due to climate change scenarios are compared with the results of a scenario generated by the assumption of the continuation of the average recharge and discharge conditions observed for 1999 and 2004. The results show that very small, but long-term changes to precipitation and temperature have the potential to cause significant declines in lake levels and temporary drying of the lakes in the long-term. The impact of climate change on lake levels will depend on how these water resources are managed in the future.     

Does the perception of climate change vary with the socio-demographic dimensions? A study on vulnerable populations in Bangladesh

Natural Hazards - This study tried to explore the perception of climate change by considering the socio-demographic dimensions of vulnerable populations in Bangladesh. This study included 158...     

Competitiveness versus ‘clean and green’? The regulation and governance of GMOs in Australia and the UK

It is increasingly argued that we are entering into a “biotech century”, in which biotechnology promises major advances in agricultural productivity. The development of biotechnology is not a straightforward affair, however, and the advent of GMOs has led to public protest and consumer resistance. This paper draws upon a comparative Australian-UK project concerned with the role of regulation and governance in mediating the debates and managing the associated risks. Regulatory responses and the mediation of conflicts by the Australian and UK governments have been shaped by the institutional and policy environments in these two countries. The implications of these public debates and regulatory responses for the capture of competitive opportunities are considered. The fact that the two countries have broadly similar systems of governance and regulation reveals how alike the circumstances are in many respects. But at the same time there are important differences in both the style and the content of the policy debates. In both the UK and Australia, the respective central governments remain committed to a ‘biotechnology future’. Against this background, there is little doubt that the choices about biotechnology will play a defining role in shaping the future of rural places.     

Bibliometric analysis of the scientific production on coastal communities’ social vulnerability to climate change and to the impact of extreme events

Natural Hazards - Bibliometric analysis is a quantitative evaluation method for scientific research aiming at measuring knowledge expressed as scientific publications in a given field. This paper...     

Active layer thickness variations on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau under the scenarios of climate change

Climate change has greatly influenced the permafrost regions on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (QTP). Most general circulation models (GCMs) project that global warming will continue and the amplitude will amplify during the twenty-first century. Climate change has caused extensive degradation of permafrost, including thickening of the active layer, rising of ground temperature, melting of ground ice, expansion of taliks, and disappearance of sporadic permafrost. The changes in the active layer thickness (ALT) greatly impact the energy balance of the land surface, hydrological cycle, ecosystems and engineering infrastructures in the cold regions. ALT is affected by climatic, geographic and geological factors. A model based on Kudryavtsev’s formulas is used to study the potential changes of ALT in the permafrost regions on the QTP. Maps of ALT for the year 2049 and 2099 on the QTP are projected under GCM scenarios. Results indicate that ALT will increase with the rising air temperature. ALT may increase by 0.1–0.7 m for the year 2049 and 0.3–1.2 m for the year 2099. The average increment of ALT is 0.8 m with the largest increment of 1.2 m under the A1F1 scenario and 0.4 m with the largest increment of 0.6 m under the B1 scenario during the twenty-first century. ALT changes significantly in sporadic permafrost regions, while in the continuous permafrost regions of the inland plateau ALT change is relatively smaller. The largest increment of ALT occurs in the northeastern and southwestern plateaus under both scenarios because of higher ground temperatures and lower soil moisture content in these regions.     

Assessment of climate change impacts on rainfall using large scale climate variables and downscaling models – A case study

Many of the applied techniques in water resources management can be directly or indirectly influenced by hydro-climatology predictions. In recent decades, utilizing the large scale climate variables as predictors of hydrological phenomena and downscaling numerical weather ensemble forecasts has revolutionized the long-lead predictions. In this study, two types of rainfall prediction models are developed to predict the rainfall of the Zayandehrood dam basin located in the central part of Iran. The first seasonal model is based on large scale climate signals data around the world. In order to determine the inputs of the seasonal rainfall prediction model, the correlation coefficient analysis and the new Gamma Test (GT) method are utilized. Comparison of modelling results shows that the Gamma test method improves the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient of modelling performance as 8% and 10% for dry and wet seasons, respectively. In this study, Support Vector Machine (SVM) model for predicting rainfall in the region has been used and its results are compared with the benchmark models such as K-nearest neighbours (KNN) and Artificial Neural Network (ANN). The results show better performance of the SVM model at testing stage. In the second model, statistical downscaling model (SDSM) as a popular downscaling tool has been used. In this model, using the outputs from GCM, the rainfall of Zayandehrood dam is projected under two climate change scenarios. Most effective variables have been identified among 26 predictor variables. Comparison of the results of the two models shows that the developed SVM model has lesser errors in monthly rainfall estimation. The results show that the rainfall in the future wet periods are more than historical values and it is lower than historical values in the dry periods. The highest monthly uncertainty of future rainfall occurs in March and the lowest in July.     

Impact of changing climate and land use on the hydrogeology of southeast Australia ∗

Anthropogenic climate change is the Earth's most serious large-scale environmental concern. While the projected changes of global temperatures, rainfall and surface water have been modelled in a sophisticated manner, the impact on groundwater resources is much less well constrained. In southeast Australia, the decrease in rainfall amount and an increase in temperature that are predicted by climate models are generally assumed to reduce the amount of recharge to the groundwater systems. However, the increase in recharge that has resulted from clearing of the native vegetation will almost certainly produce a greater impact on the groundwater system, increasing quantity and potentially improving quality. Additionally, the impact on recharge of changes to rainfall frequency rather than just total amount is not well documented. Overall our understanding of the impacts of climate change on groundwater systems is insufficiently advanced to make firm predictions. Indirect impacts of climate change, particularly the projected increased demand for groundwater or surface water to supplement surface water supplies also will have a major impact that may be greater than the direct effect of climate change.     

Effects of climate change on relationship between water and salts of waters ecosystems in arid zone, China

The process of salinization has increased dramatically over the past several decades in the northwest arid zone of China. Soil salinization has been recognized as a major environmental problem for many years in the Tarim River Basin. It is the key issue of solving the soil salinization problem to study interaction between water and salt in arid zone, which will provide useful principle and methodology to its solution. Taking Tarim River and Bosten Lake for example, by systematically collecting the basic data of hydrogeology, meteorology, and social economy, we analyzed the interaction of water and salt of Tarim River and Bostan Lake in natural and artificial conditions in aspects of basins, oases, lakes and marshes. The results showed that： （1） Temperature and precipitation are both increasing gradually in the whole Tarim River Basin, the climate tends to be come warmer and wetter, but the water quality condition is not optimistic; （2） At the end of the 1950s, mineralization degree was less than 1.0 g/L from the upper reaches to the lower reaches of the Tarim River. At present, it is more than 3.0 g/L in Alaer Lake （the upper reaches of the Tarim River） except in July, August and October, during which it is less than 1.0 g/L. In Qiala （the lower reaches）, it is more than 1.0 g/L except in March, moreover, it is about 5.0 g/L in July and December. The eco-water conveyance project implementation has still not improved Tarim River＇s water quality condition; （3） Bostan Lake was a tiny salt-water lake in the late 1950s, but the water-soil development of the oasis has aggravated the salinization in recent thirty years. Since the West Pumping Station was brought into operation in 1982, the Bostan Lake which accumulated salt has begun to be desalted. We consider that climate may not be the key factor for salinization in this area. Instead, socio-economic factors relevant to human activities should be mainly responsible for such changes, as is confirmed by our further analysis. In order to improve present situation of water-soil salinization, water resources utilization and management should be strengthened, highly efficient and water-saving irrigating technology should be spread,     

Interruptions of the ancient Shu Civilization: triggered by climate change or natural disaster?

Environmental proxies of a stable carbon isotope, total organic carbon, free iron oxide, and particle size distribution in sediments as well as the stable carbon and oxygen isotopes in fossil human and animal teeth were used to reconstruct the history of climate change and natural disasters near the Jinsha Relic Site and to track their effect on the ancient Shu Civilization, which was established in the Chengdu Plain of southwest China during the late Holocene. In general, the late Holocene climate in the Chengdu Plain demonstrated a drying and cooling trend, with evident cooler events ~4100 and ~2700 a BP, which coincided with global climate changes. The ancient Shu Civilization was interrupted twice, and it included three stages—the Baodun (4700–3700 a BP), the Sanxingdui (3700–3150 a BP), and the Shi’erqiao (3150–2600 a BP)—that were slightly related to the abrupt climate changes that resulted from the collapse of the classic Sanxingdui Civilization, which was founded in a regional warm period. The abrupt increase in sand content in the sediment from the Jinsha Site coincided with the palaeoearthquake and palaeodam burst in the Longmen Mountains when the Baodun and Shi’erqiao desisted, indicating that a flood had occurred due to a dam burst and may likely have caused the ancient civilization’s destruction. Although the warm and humid climate, flat terrain and rich water resources prompted the prosperity of the ancient towns of Sanxingdui and Jinsha, frequent natural disasters, such as powerful earthquakes, landslide dams, and outburst floods, consistently affected the ancient Shu inhabitants.     

Assessing climate change impacts on river hydrology – A case study in the Western Ghats of India

The objective of this study is to evaluate the hydrological impacts of climate change on rainfall, temperature and streamflow in a west flowing river originating in the Western Ghats of India. The long-term trend analysis for 110 yr of meteorological variables (rainfall and temperature) was carried out using the modified Mann–Kendall trend test and the magnitude of the trend was quantified using the Sen’s slope estimator. The Regional Climate Model (RCM), COordinated Regional climate Downscaling EXperiment (CORDEX) simulated daily weather data of baseline (1951–2005) and future RCP 4.5 scenarios (2006–2060) were used to run the hydrological model, Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), in order to evaluate the effect of climate change on rainfall, temperature and streamflow. Significant changes were observed with regard to rainfall, which have shown decreasing trend at the rate of 2.63 mm per year for the historical and 8.85 mm per year for RCP 4.5 future scenarios. The average temperature was found to be increasing at \(0.10\,^{\circ }\hbox {C}\) per decade for both historical and future scenarios. The impact of climate change on the annual streamflow yielded a decreasing trend at the rate of \(1.2\,\hbox {Mm}^{3}\) per year and 2.56 \(\hbox {Mm}^{3},\) respectively for the past and future scenarios. The present work also investigates the capability of SWAT to simulate the groundwater flow. The simulated results are compared with the recession limb of the hydrograph and were found to be reasonably accurate.     

Pastoralists’ perception of and adaptation strategies for climate change: associations with observed climate variability

Natural Hazards - Although climate change is a universal phenomenon, its indicators and manifestations are entirely local, as are adaptation choices, strategies, and practices. Based on...     

Holocene coastal change in the ancient harbor of Yenikap?-?stanbul and its impact on cultural history

An extensive rescue excavation has been conducted in the ancient harbor of ?stanbul (Yenikap?) by the Sea of Marmara, revealing a depositional sequence displaying clear evidence of transgression and coastal progradation during the Holocene. The basal layer of this sequence lies at 6 m below the present sea level and contains remains of a Neolithic settlement known to have been present in the area, indicating that the sea level at ~ 8-9 cal ka BP was lower than 6 m below present. Sea level advanced to its maximum at ~ 6.8-7 cal ka BP, drowning Lykos Stream and forming an inlet at its mouth. After ~ 3 cal ka BP, coastal progradation became evident. Subsequent construction of the Byzantine Harbor (Theodosius; 4th century AD) created a restricted small basin and accumulation of fine-grained sediments. The sedimentation rate was increased due to coastal progradation and anthropogenic factors during the deposition of coarse-grained sediments at the upper parts of the sequence (7th-9th centuries AD). The harbor was probably abandoned after the 11th century AD by filling up with Lykos Stream detritus and continued seaward migration of the coastline.     

Israel’s Eastern border: Ask not ‘Where is the Green Line?’ Ask ‘What is the Green Line?’

The Green Line constituted the armistice line between Israel and Jordan during the period 1949-1967. This paper discusses the familiarity of Israeli students with the nature and geographical location of the Green Line by restructuring and analyzing their mental maps. The findings of this study show that students who are men, long-term residents, identify themselves on the left end of the political spectrum, and professional geographers, show better knowledge concerning the issue of borders. However, most students revealed a certain vagueness and even ignorance concerning both spatial perception of the Green Line and its essence. The reasons for the revealed phenomenon are also discussed in this paper, as well as the behavioral implications of the familiarity with the Green Line, both in spatial and political contexts.     

Satellite monitoring of spatio-temporal dynamics of China’s coastal zone eco-environments: preliminary analysis on the relationship between the environment,climate change and human behavior

In this paper, temporal dynamics of eco-environmental changes in coastal areas of China during 1981–2000 are investigated based on four key surface parameters including normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), thermal index, moisture index and surface broadband albedo derived from quantitative remote sensing techniques and meteorological data. Firstly, land surface temperature (LST) and land surface broadband albedo are retrieved by the split-window algorithms and high-order polynomial regression method, respectively, using NOAA/AVHRR series images. Then, moisture index and thermal index, indicators of climate and moisture conditions in the study area, are computed from meteorological data and LST using principal component analysis (PCA). Finally, long-term dynamics of these eco-environmental factors and the reasons responsible for these changes are analyzed further. The results show that during the years from 1981 to 2000, the study area experienced a gradual increase in annual NDVI and climate factors and a decrease in surface annual broadband albedo, which indicates that the coastal thermal and moisture conditions and the subsistence conditions of natural vegetation have changed to a considerable extent. According to the results, a warming and wetting tendency over the last two decades is obvious in the China’s coastal zone that are mainly due to land use changes as of growing urbanization, exhaust emissions from industries and transportations and, partly global climate change. Uncontrolled rapid development of the study area may be blamed for these negative changes as a major driving force. The positive feedback mechanisms between albedo, NDVI and climate factors also partly explain these changes. This study suggests that the method integrating biophysical parameters retrieved from remote sensed images and meteorologic data provides a novel and feasible way to monitor large scale eco-environmental changes.

‘Jack of all trades’? The negotiation of interdisciplinarity within geography

This paper explores the relationship between interdisciplinary studies and research and researchers’ positionalities, both within and beyond geography. The profound degree to which researchers’ assumptions, expectations and attitudes (which in turn are affected by their personal backgrounds, training, location, etc.) influences the very notion of interdisciplinarity, and what it involves and consists of, is often neither noted nor appreciated. This paper will illustrate, particularly through personal examples, how positionality is part of the circuit of knowledge production, informing academic research, employment and publishing to no small extent. The boundaries of interdisciplinary research are shown to be under constant negotiation, still far from mutual understanding or consensus, a fact which explains the often uneasy identification and negotiation of oneself as an interdisciplinary scholar. The paper concludes by making recommendations at individual and institutional level on how to overcome some of the constraints imposed by researchers’ positionalities to the promotion of interdisciplinary research.     

Evaluating climate change adaptation efforts on the US 50 states’ hazard mitigation plans

Climate change brings uncertain risks of climate-related natural hazards. The US Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA in Climate change: long-term trends and their implications for emergency management, 2011. https://www.fema.gov/pdf/about/programs/oppa/climate_change_paper.pdf) has issued a policy directive to integrate climate change adaptation actions into hazard mitigation programs, policies, and plans. However, to date there has been no comprehensive empirical study to examine the extent to which climate change issues are integrated into state hazard mitigation plans (SHMPs). This study develops 18 indicators to examine the extent of climate change considerations in the 50 SHMPs. The results demonstrate that these SHMPs treat climate change issues in an uneven fashion, with large variations present among the 50 states. The overall plan quality for climate change considerations was sustained at an intermediate level with regard to climate change-related awareness, analysis, and actions. The findings confirm that climate change concepts and historic extreme events have been well recognized by the majority of SHMPs. Even though they are not specific to climate change, mitigation and adaptation strategies that can help reduce climate change risks have been adopted in these plans. However, the plans still lack a detailed assessment of climate change and more incentives for collaboration strategies beyond working with emergency management agencies.     

Control of climate and Tethyan legacy on distribution of Paleocene–Eocene gastropods and establishment of the Northern Tropical Realm

Palaeobiogeographical distribution of gastropod genera from the Paleocene and the Eocene has been analysed. Based on this distribution, formal palaeobiogeographical provinces have been established and their relationships are sought. It has been found that the provinces were largely restricted to the palaeo-tropics and subtropics mainly of the northern hemisphere and they share a large proportion of their generic composition. The Northern Tropical Realm has been established to include these provinces. The distribution evinces presence of ocean surface currents in the tropics across longitudes. The possible currents moved through the relict Tethys Ocean, across the Atlantic Ocean and perhaps also across the Pacific. However, planktotrophic larvae of these benthic molluscs could not cross the deep ocean barrier that lay between the Northern Tropical Realm and the Austro-New Zealand Province of the southern hemisphere. The gastropod fauna in the latter province evolved independently. Distribution of all the provinces within palaeo-tropics and subtropics indicates strong control of temperature over it. Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum appears to be responsible for extinction and range contraction of high latitude faunas. Low latitude faunas also suffered significant extinction. However, large diversification in the Eocene was a response to widespread transgression that coincided with the thermal event.     

A commentary on climate change, stone decay dynamics and the ‘greening’ of natural stone buildings: new perspectives on ‘deep wetting’

Environmental controls on stone decay processes are rapidly changing as a result of changing climate. UKCP09 projections for the 2020s (2010–2039) indicate that over much of the UK seasonality of precipitation will increase. Summer dryness and winter wetness are both set to increase, the latter linked to projected precipitation increases in autumn and spring months. If so, this could increase the time that stone structures remain wet and possibly the depth of moisture penetration, and it appears that building stone in Northern Ireland has already responded through an increased incidence of algal ‘greening’. This paper highlights the need for understanding the effects of climate change through a series of studies of largely sandstone structures. Current and projected climatic trends are therefore considered to have aesthetic, physical and chemical implications that are not currently built into our models of sandstone decay, especially with respect to the role played by deep-seated wetness on sandstone deterioration and decay progression and the feedbacks associated with, for example surface algal growth. In particular, it is proposed that algal biofilms will aid moisture retention and further facilitate moisture and dissolved salt penetration to depth. Thus, whilst the outer surface of stone may continue to experience frequent wetting and drying associated with individual precipitation events, the latter is less likely to be complete, and the interiors of building blocks may only experience wetting/drying in response to seasonal cycling. A possible consequence of deeper salt penetration could be a delay in the onset of surface deterioration, but more rapid and effective retreat once it commences as decay mechanisms ‘tap into a reservoir of deep salt’.