Effects of Flow Regulation in Flow Regime on the Murrumbidgee River,South Eastern Australia: an assessment using a daily estimation hydrological model

In this paper, modelled hydrological data are used to quantify the effects of regulation on the flow regime of the lower Murrumbidgee River in the period 1970–1998. Although other studies report historical changes in flood frequency and duration, this study uses modelled natural daily flow data rather than pre-regulation records or aggregated modelled monthly data. The comparison of modelled natural and regulated daily flows shows the magnitude of changes to mean and seasonal flows, flood peaks and flow duration. At gauges upstream of major irrigation off-takes, mean flows have been increased by approximately 10 per cent, flood peaks have been reduced by 21–46 per cent, and there has been a seasonal redistribution such that flows in summer and autumn have been increased at the expense of those in winter and spring. At gauges downstream of the major irrigation off-takes, mean flows have been reduced by 8–46 per cent, flood peaks have been reduced by 16–61 per cent, and flows have been decreased in all seasons.     

Downstream geomorphic impacts of large dams: the case of Glenbawn Dam,NSW

Downstream hydrologic effects since the closure of Glenbawn Dam, a large dual-purpose storage for water conservation and flood mitigation, include: (i) a reduction in mean annual runoff of about 21 × 10⁶ m³; (ii) a change in the probability distribution of mean daily flows involving a truncation of flows >;8 × 10⁶ m³ d^?1, a much reduced frequency of flows >7 × 10⁵ m³ d^?1 and an increased frequency of flows <7 × 10⁵ m³ d^?1; and (iii) a reduction in flood magnitude of at least 80 per cent for all probabilities of exceedance. From suspended sediment samples collected before and after dam closure, sediment trap efficiency has been estimated at 99 per cent.An accommodation adjustment of the channel has occurred upstream of the first unregulated tributary because the bed is armoured, the banks are well vegetated, some bedrock and concrete controls are present and all regulated releases are incompetent to transport the bed material. Immediately downstream of the first unregulated tributary, the channel has contracted by up to 45 per cent and degraded by up to 69 per cent during lateral migration. Further downstream no channel changes were recorded although the bed material has progressively coarsened over time.     

Locating some types of random errors in Digital Terrain Models

The increasing use of Geographical Information System applications has generated a strong interest in the assessment of data quality. As an example of quantitative raster data, we analysed errors in Digital Terrain Models (DTM). Errors might be classified as systematic (strongly dependent on the production methodology) and random. The present work attempts to locate some types of randomly distributed, weakly spatially correlated errors by applying a new methodology based on Principal Components Analysis. The Principal Components approach presented is very different from the typical scheme used in image processing. A prototype implementation has been conducted using MATLAB, and the overall procedure has been numerically tested using a Monte Carlo approach. A DTM of Stockholm, with integer-valued heights varying from 0 to 59 m has been used as a testbed.The model was contaminated by adding randomly located errors, distributed uniformly within 4 m and 4m. The procedure has been applied using both spike shaped (isolated errors) and pyramid-like errors. The preliminary results show that for the former, roughly half of the errors have been located with a Type I error probability of 4.6 per cent on average, checking up to 1 per cent of the dataset. The associated Type II error of the larger errors (of exactly 4m or 4 m) drops from an initial value of 1.21 per cent down to 0.63 per cent. By checking another 1 per cent of the dataset, such error drops to 0.34 per cent implying that about 71 per cent of the 4m errors have been located; Type I error was below 11.27 per cent. The results for pyramid-like errors are slightly worse, with a Type I error of 25.80 per cent on average for the first 1 per cent effort, and a Type II error drop from an initial value of 0.81 per cent down to 0.65 per cent. The procedure can be applied both for error detection during the DTM generation and by end users. It might also be used for other types of quantitative raster data.     

Actual and potential flood damage: a case study for urban Lismore,NSW, Australia

An urban land use survey of Lismore, New South Wales, was undertaken to assess the character of buildings affected by the major flood of March 1974. A questionnaire survey was then carried out on a sample of 140 residential houses, 212 commercial establishments and all 26 industrial concerns in the flood-prone area to assess actual flood damage. Potential flood damage was estimated by a professional valuer and by questionnaire information. Comparison of actual and potential damage showed that actual damage was only 52.4 per cent of potential damage in the residential sector, 23.5 per cent in the commercial sector and 6.1 per cent in the industrial sector. It is concluded that the relatively low levels of actual damage reflect the high degree of preparedness by the urban population, particularly in the commercial and urban sector. The results indicate the level of damage reduction feasible given adequate flood warning schemes and appropriate adjustments by the community.     

Spatial and temporal variations in thunderstorm casualties over India

Thunderstorms are one of the most dangerous convective weather events. Despite the recent advances in prediction of convective storms worldwide, thousands of casualties occur annually. In the present study, the authors highlight specifically, thunderstorm‐related casualties reported in India from 1978–2012. Analysis of long‐term data have revealed about 16 308 casualties resulting from 1381 thunderstorm events with an average of 465 casualties occurring annually. The maximum number of casualties were concentrated in north‐eastern and central north‐eastern states. About 80 per cent of total casualties were recorded in West Bengal (23 per cent), Assam (20 per cent), Orissa (14 per cent), Bihar (13 per cent) and Jharkhand (8 per cent) states. The national casualties rate per million population per year and casualties density standardized by area has been found to be 0.50 and 5.07, respectively. Male casualties were found to be more prominent than female and children casualties, probably due to the larger proportion of males performing their work outdoors. The number of thunderstorm events and casualties was observed to be highest during pre‐monsoon season and lowest during winter. It is believed that the findings from this study will help policy makers to draw strategies to cope with the perils of thunderstorms.     

鄱阳湖区洪灾风险与农户脆弱性分析

运用1:5 万DEM 地形数据对鄱阳湖区洪涝灾害风险区区域范围及空间分布进行了分析。在此基础上, 以乡镇为基本研究单元, 选取乡村人口比重、耕地面积比重为洪灾风险暴露分析指标, 选取单位面积生产总值、农民人均纯收入、第一产业从业人员比重、农业收入占农村经济总收入比重等为农户洪灾应对能力分析指标, 并引入了不同洪水水位特征值的影响系数, 对鄱阳湖区农户洪灾脆弱性程度进行了定量研究。结果表明, 鄱阳湖洪灾风险区面积广、影响深, 农户对洪涝灾害总体上存在着较高的脆弱性; 在所涉及的180 个乡镇中, 农户脆弱度高于平均值的有100 个, 占到乡镇数55.56%。脆弱度最高的乡镇主要集中在滨湖地带及五河干流沿岸地区, 而脆弱度较低的乡镇则主要分布在湖区各县城关镇所在区域。     

鄱阳湖区洪灾风险与农户脆弱性分析

This paper quantitatively explores farmers' vulnerability to flood in the Poyang Lake Region (PLR) with the supports of GIS spatial functions. The analysis consists of three major steps,which is based on the spatial unit of township. Firstly,the spatial extent and charac-teristics of flood risk areas were determined using a digital elevation model (DEM) derived from the 1:50,000 topographic map. Secondly,for each of the township,six indices indicating the economic activities of local farmers were calculated. These indices are: rural population proportion,cultivated land proportion,GDP per unit area,employment proportion of primary industry,net rural income per capita and agricultural income proportion. These six indices were then normalized and used for later vulnerability assessment. Thirdly,the normalized indices (as GIS data layers) were overlaid with the flood risk areas to produce the risk coeffi-cient for each township and to calculate the overall vulnerability for each township. The analysis results show that in the PLR there are high flood risk areas where the farmers' livings are seriously influenced or threatened. About 55.56% of the total 180 townships in the flood risk areas have a high degree of flood vulnerability. The townships under flood risk are mainly distributed in the areas around the Poyang Lake and the areas along the "five rivers".     

Time of day and telephone interviews in Rural‐Urban Australia

Private household telephone ownership in Australian capital cities ranges between 91.1 per cent (Canberra) and 81.9 per cent (Brisbane). Consequently, telephone ownership need not be viewed as a major factor distinguishing households. As the characteristics of households without telephones are also known, it is possible to supplement telephone interviews with face to face interviews and thereby ensure that such a sampling frame represents the population. Such techniques, coupled with the ease and relative inexpense of telephone interviews, may promote the use of the medium. Using a letter to forewarn potential respondents and a three call‐back strategy (twice during working hours, once at night), a response rate of 77.4 per cent was achieved; 8.7 per cent of respondents could not be contacted and the balance refused. Reasons for refusals related almost exclusively to the subject matter of the interview — bushfire hazard. The first day time calls yielded 166 interviews out of 378 calls and the second 67 out of 197 calls. No particular time of day or day of week resulted in significantly more interviews; however, 55.4 per cent of respondents were female. Night calls yielded the highest response rates, with 86 interviews from 127 calls, and 63.9 per cent of respondents were male.     

Farmers&rsquo|vulnerability to flood risk: A case study in the Poyang Lake Region

This paper quantitatively explores farmers’ vulnerability to flood in the Poyang Lake Region (PLR) with the supports of GIS spatial functions. The analysis consists of three major steps, which is based on the spatial unit of township. Firstly, the spatial extent and charac-teristics of flood risk areas were determined using a digital elevation model (DEM) derived from the 1:50,000 topographic map. Secondly, for each of the township, six indices indicating the economic activities of local farmers were calculated. These indices are: rural population proportion, cultivated land proportion, GDP per unit area, employment proportion of primary industry, net rural income per capita and agricultural income proportion. These six indices were then normalized and used for later vulnerability assessment. Thirdly, the normalized indices (as GIS data layers) were overlaid with the flood risk areas to produce the risk coeffi-cient for each township and to calculate the overall vulnerability for each township. The analysis results show that in the PLR there are high flood risk areas where the farmers’ livings are seriously influenced or threatened. About 55.56% of the total 180 townships in the flood risk areas have a high degree of flood vulnerability. The townships under flood risk are mainly distributed in the areas around the Poyang Lake and the areas along the “five rivers”.     

Farmers＇ vulnerability to flood risk： A case study in the Poyang Lake Region

This paper quantitatively explores farmers＇ vulnerability to flood in the Poyang Lake Region （PLR） with the supports of GIS spatial functions. The analysis consists of three major steps, which is based on the spatial unit of township. Firstly, the spatial extent and characteristics of flood risk areas were determined using a digital elevation model （DEM） derived from the 1：50,000 topographic map. Secondly, for each of the township, six indices indicating the economic activities of local farmers were calculated. These indices are： rural population proportion, cultivated land proportion, GDP per unit area, employment proportion of primary industry, net rural income per capita and agricultural income proportion. These six indices were then normalized and used for later vulnerability assessment. Thirdly, the normalized indices （as GIS data layers） were overlaid with the flood risk areas to produce the risk coefficient for each township and to calculate the overall vulnerability for each township. The analysis results show that in the PLR there are high flood risk areas where the farmers＇ livings are seriously influenced or threatened. About 55.56% of the total 180 townships in the flood risk areas have a high degree of flood vulnerability. The townships under flood risk are mainly distributed in the areas around the Poyang Lake and the areas along the ＂five rivers＂.     

HYDROLOGY AND GEOMORPHIC EFFECTS OF A HIGH-MAGNITUDE FLOOD IN AN ALPINE RIVER

The catchment of the River Partnach, a torrent situated in a glacial valley in the Northern Calcareous Alps of Bavaria/Germany, was affected by a high‐magnitude flood on 22/23 August 2005 with a peak discharge of more than 16 m³s^‐1 at the spring and about 50 m³s^‐1 at the catchment outlet. This flood was caused by a long period of intense rainfall with a maximum intensity of 230 mm per day. During this event, a landslide dam, which previously held a small lake, failed. The flood wave originating from the dam breach transported a large volume of sediment (more than 50 000 m³) derived from bank erosion and the massive undercutting of a talus cone. This caused a fundamental transformation of the downstream channel system including the redistribution of large woody debris and channel switching. Using terrestrial survey and aerial photography, erosional and depositional consequences of the event were mapped, pre‐ and post‐event surfaces were compared and the sediment budget of the event calculated for ten consecutive channel reaches downstream of the former lake. According to the calculations more than 100 000 tonnes of sediment were eroded, 75% of which was redeposited within the channel and the proximal floodplain. A previous large flood which occurred a few weeks prior to the August 2005 event had a significant effect on controlling the impact of this event.     

Trends of tropical deforestation in Southeast Mexico

We assessed deforestation in Southeast Mexico (a surface area of 29 000 km² in seven states) through the comparison of land use/land cover maps at a scale of 1:250 000. This facilitated mapping of the land use/land cover change (LULCC) processes and calculation of the rates of change and the change matrix for the period 1978–2000. An original method was used to assess the accuracy of the LULCC map. The verification sites were selected through a stratified random sampling and were corroborated with aerial photographs for 1978 and 2000. Error matrices were elaborated using both hard and fuzzy set approaches in order to take into account the errors related to generalization of the map in fragmented landscapes. The results showed an average annual deforestation rate of 1.1 per cent which represents an average annual loss of 190 000 ha of forest, or an estimated total reduction of 4.2 million ha over 22 years. Furthermore, deforestation processes are concentrated in some areas such as Yucatan and Chiapas states, which registered major forest conversions to grassland and slash‐burning. The overall accuracy of the LULCC map, assessed with hard and fuzzy set approaches, was 72 per cent and 88 per cent respectively.     

Time series analysis of the 10 000 yr geomagnetic secular variation record from SE Australia

Summary. A 10 000 yr continuous secular variation record from intensively dated lake sediments in SE Australia has been subjected to periodogram and maximum entropy method analysis. Tests on synthetic data reveal some of the limitations of the latter method, particularly when applied to complex number series. Anticlockwise precession of the magnetic vector at a period of 5000 ± 1000 yr is tentatively ascribed to dipole precession, and clockwise precession at a period of about 2800 yr is probably due to westward drift of features of the non-dipole field.
The effect of calibrating the radiocarbon time-scale is important and results in periodicity shifts of up to 25 per cent. Even for well-dated lacustrine sequences power spectra are poorly constrained: it is thus possible that the geomagnetic secular variation on a time-scale of thousands of years is more uniform than often supposed. Mismatches between declination and inclination spectra can arise as a natural consequence of certain types of source mechanism and should not be simply attributed to figments of the analysis employed.     

黄河内蒙古段淤积泥沙洪水冲刷效应

为了探讨黄河内蒙古段淤积泥沙的洪水冲刷效应,于2012年对其三湖河口水文站河道监测断面汛期（7-10月）流量、悬移质泥沙含量以及洪水期间（2012年8月20日-2012年10月1日）悬移质泥沙含量、粒度百分含量的垂直变化特征与流量的关系进行了统计和分析。结果表明：（1）该次洪水具有峰高量大、洪峰过程在河段内持续时间长、洪水起涨和消退缓慢、峰形矮胖的特点;（2）洪水过程中,小于0.05 mm的细颗粒泥沙在2 000 m³·s^-1左右的流量下就能输移通过,在2 000～2 400 m³·s^-1时输沙强度最大,对河道淤积泥沙可以达到输沙最优的效果;而粒径大于0.05 mm的泥沙输移的效果不好。     

Population futures in the Australian desert, 2001–16

Population estimates are rarely constructed for ecological regions. The recent establishment of a Desert Knowledge Cooperative Research Centre (CRC) generates a need for such estimates. This paper obliges by presenting Indigenous and total population projections for the Australian desert to 2016. The desert is found to be a region of relatively low population growth in national terms, contrary to the experience of many other parts of non-metropolitan Australia where population decline is prevalent. Also noted is the markedly different growth observed for the Indigenous and non-Indigenous components of the desert population, with the former projected to increase much more rapidly over time. It is likely that virtually all of the increase in the desert population over the next 15 years will arise from natural increase among Indigenous peoples. As a consequence, the Indigenous share of the regional population is projected to rise from 20 per cent in 2001 to 24 per cent by 2016, with attendant consequences for social and economic policy.     

Plate convergence measured by GPS across the Sundaland/Philippine Sea Plate deformed boundary: the Philippines and eastern Indonesia

The western boundary of the Philippine Sea (PH) Plate in the Philippines and eastern Indonesia corresponds to a wide deformation zone that includes the stretched continental margin of Sundaland, the Philippine Mobile Belt (PMB), extending from Luzon to the Molucca Sea, and a mosaic of continental blocks around the PH/Australia/Sunda triple junction. The GPS GEODYSSEA data are used to decipher the present kinematics of this complex area. In the Philippines, the overall scheme is quite simple: two opposing rotations on either side of the left-lateral Philippine Fault, clockwise to the southwest and counterclockwise to the northeast, transfer 55 per cent of the PH/Sundaland convergence from the Manila Trench to the northwest to the Philippine Trench to the southeast. Further south, 80 per cent of the PH/Sunda convergence is absorbed in the double subduction system of the Molucca Sea and less than 20 per cent along both continental margins of northern Borneo. Finally, within the triple junction area between the Sundaland, PH and Australia plates, from Sulawesi to Irian Jaya, preferential subduction of the Celebes Sea induces clockwise rotation of the Sulu block, which is escaping toward the diminishing Celebes Sea oceanic space from the eastward-advancing PH Plate. To the south, we identify an undeformed Banda block that rotates counterclockwise with respect to Australia and clockwise with respect to Sundaland. The kinematics of this block can be defined and enable us to compute the rates of southward subduction of the Banda block within the Flores Trench and of eastward convergence of the Makassar Straits with the Banda block. The analysis made in this paper confirms that this deformation is compatible with the eastward motion of Sundaland with respect to Eurasia determined by the GEODYSSEA programme but is not compatible with the assumption that Sundaland belongs to Eurasia, as was often assumed prior to this study.     

Ethnic change and diversity in England, 1981–2001

The paper compares ethnic change and diversity across two recent decades using common group and area definitions. Ethnic minority groups are shown to be growing rapidly at 41 per cent between 1981 and 1991 and 39 per cent between 1991 and 2001. Some groups have grown swiftly (Black Africans, Bangladeshis), while others have seen moderate expansion (Indians, Other Asians). The White population has hardly grown and the White British population has probably declined. Black and Ethnic Minority (BEM) populations remain concentrated in metropolitan areas in 2001 as in 1991 and 1981. Whereas between 1981 and 1991, BEM groups were concentrating into metropolitan areas, between 1991 and 2001 deconcentration began for most groups. The London region stands out as highly dominant, housing more than 50 per cent of BEM populations as a whole in 1991 and 2001. However, between 1991 and 2001, BEM groups grew outside their core areas. The consequence of BEM population growth and spread has been a dramatic increase in ethnic diversity in all regions.     

南宋以来太湖流域大涝大旱及近期趋势估计

本文研究南宋以来太湖地区大旱大涝并对近期大旱大涝趋势作了估计。     

汉江上游谷地归仙河口剖面风化成壤特征及其记录的气候变化事件

对汉江上游谷地归仙河口剖面的地层学、沉积学特征以及磁化率、粒度组成、Rb/Sr比值等理化指标进行了研究。结果显示:归仙河口剖面地层完整,具有表土(MS)→全新世黄土(L0)→古土壤(S0)→过渡性黄土(Lt)→马兰黄土(L1)→河流相沉积物(AD)的地层序列,它记录了汉江第一级阶地抬升以来东亚季风的变化信息。不同地层单元的风化成壤差异明显,其成壤强弱序列为:S0>L0>Lt>L1。归仙河口剖面风化成壤强度的变化表明:18 000～11 500 a BP,气候干冷,风尘大量堆积,成壤微弱,其中在12 500～12 400 a BP出现特大洪水事件;11 500～8 500 a BP,气候逐渐向暖湿方向转变,成壤作用有所增强;8 500～3 000 a BP,气候最为温暖湿润,成壤作用非常强烈,而在7 500～7 000 a BP汉江流域频繁发生特大洪水;距今3 000年开始,气候重新进入一个相对干旱少雨时期,期间气候并不稳定,其中在3 100～3 000 a BP和1 000～900 a BP出现特大洪水事件。     

Automatic classification of dome instabilities based on Doppler radar measurements at Merapi volcano, Indonesia: Part I

Monitoring lava dome instabilities is crucial to efficiently monitor active dome building volcanoes. The Doppler radar technique provides a unique opportunity to gather information about the number of instability events occurring at the growing dome and about the dynamic processes that take place during different types of instabilities. So far, three different kinds of processes have been identified: sliding material, gravitational break-offs and explosive outbursts. In addition, Doppler radars provide rain measurements, which can be used to investigate possible correlations between rainfall and dome activity. Two radar systems have been installed at Merapi volcano in October 2001 and January 2005 to continuously monitor dome instabilities. Due to the large number of instability events that occur during times of high activity, manual processing and analysis of instability events is not practical for monitoring purposes. Therefore, an automatic classification system has been developed, which is capable of identifying different kinds of instabilities as well as rainfall. Two different kinds of classifier models have been applied: (1) neural network and (2) K-nearest-neighbour classifier model. Both classify Doppler spectra according to the underlying dynamic process, that is, rain, sliding material, gravitational break-off or explosive outburst. The classifiers are able to identify disturbances, which have no physical source, but are merely artefacts from the radar device itself. Because radar events are sequences of Doppler spectra, a rule set has been defined, which finally determines the event class. All classifiers have been trained and tested on independent data sets to estimate the classification performance. The overall classification rate is about 90 per cent. Discrimination of instabilities and non-volcanic events reaches about 98 per cent accuracy.