Application of a stochastic model to estimate children’s short-term residential exposure to lead

The Cumulative and Aggregate Simulation of Exposure (CASE) framework is an innovative simulation tool for exploring non-dietary exposures to environmental contaminants. Built upon the Dermal Exposure Reduction Model (DERM) and established methods for collecting detailed human activity patterns, the CASE framework improves upon its predecessor. Although prompted in part by the Food Quality Protection Act of 1996 and the need to assess aggregate exposure to pesticides, the framework was designed to be flexible enough to assess exposure to other contaminants. This paper examines features of the CASE framework in an illustrative application estimating children’s dermal and non-dietary ingestion exposure to lead in the residential environment. Concentration values in various media are taken from a nationwide study and exposure factors are obtained from the literature. Activity pattern input includes sequential micro-level activities collected for 20 children (ages 1 through 6). Modeled results are explored via classification trees and sensitivity analysis. Results of each exposure route are also compared to independent data. Median dermal exposure estimates were 589 and 558 μg/m³ for the right and left hands, respectively, with the resulting output most sensitive to exposure factor terms. The simulation estimated a median non-dietary ingestion rate of 9.5 μg of lead per day with estimates most sensitive to the surface area of mouthed objects.     

A probabilistic approach to exposure risk assessment

The introduction of hazardous substances into the environment has long been recognized as being a cause of several diseases in humans, wildlife, and plants. The damaging character of suspected contaminants is usually assessed via a “reject/retain” design with no explicit link between levels of exposure and intensities of the potential adverse health effects even though this connection may be important for the development of public health regulations that limit exposure to hazardous substances. Here, we propose a probabilistic approach to exposure risk assessment as a way around this typical flaw. We develop a Bayesian model using proximity to the source of an alleged contaminant as a surrogate for exposure. Subsequently, we carry out an experimental study based on simulated data to illustrate the model implementation with real world data. We also discuss a possible way of extending the model to accommodate potential heterogeneity in the spatial distribution of the focal disease.     

Seismic risk assessment considering cumulative damage due to aftershocks

Calculating the limit state (LS) exceedance probability for a structure considering the main seismic event and the triggered aftershocks (AS) is complicated both by the time‐dependent rate of aftershock occurrence and also by the cumulative damage caused by the sequence of events. Taking advantage of a methodology developed previously by the authors for post‐mainshock (MS) risk assessment, the LS probability due to a sequence of mainshock and the triggered aftershocks is calculated for a given aftershock forecasting time window. The proposed formulation takes into account both the time‐dependent rate of aftershock occurrence and also the damage accumulation due to the triggered aftershocks. It is demonstrated that an existing reinforced concrete moment‐resisting frame with infills subjected to the main event and the triggered sequence exceeds the near‐collapse LS. On the other hand, the structure does not reach the onset of near‐collapse LS when the effect of triggered aftershocks is not considered. It is shown, based on simplifying assumptions, that the derived formulation yields asymptotically to the same Poisson‐type functional form used when the cumulative damage is not being considered. This leads to a range of approximate solutions by substituting the fragilities calculated for intact, MS‐damaged, and MS‐plus‐one‐AS‐damaged structures in the asymptotic simplified formulation. The latter two approximate solutions provide good agreement with the derived formulation. Even when the fragility of intact structure is employed, the approximate solution (considering only the time‐dependent rate of aftershock occurrence) leads to higher risk estimates compared with those obtained based on only the mainshock. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Seismic damage evaluation in urban areas using the capacity spectrum method: Application to Barcelona

Conceptual aspects related to seismic vulnerability, damage and risk evaluation are discussed first, together with a short review of the most widely used possibilities for seismic evaluation of structures. The capacity spectrum method and the way of obtaining seismic damage scenarios for urban areas starting from capacity and fragility curves are then discussed. The determination of capacity curves for buildings using non-linear structural analysis tools is then explained, together with a simplified expeditious procedure allowing the development of fragility curves. The seismic risk of the buildings of Barcelona, Spain, is analyzed in the paper, based on the application of the capacity spectrum method. The seismic hazard in the area of the city is described by means of the reduced 5% damped elastic response spectrum. The information on the buildings was obtained by collecting, arranging, improving and completing a broad database of the dwellings and current buildings. The buildings existing in Barcelona are mainly of two types: unreinforced masonry structures and reinforced concrete buildings with waffled-slab floors. The ArcView software was used to create a GIS tool for managing the collected information in order to develop seismic risk scenarios. This study shows that the vulnerability of the buildings is significant in Barcelona and, therefore, in spite of the low-to-moderate seismic hazard in the region, the expected seismic risk is considerable.     

Studies on wind environment around high buildings in urban areas

High buildings or architectural complex in urban areas remarkably distort the urban surface wind fields. As the air flow approaches,local strong wind may appear around the buildings. The strong wind makes the pedestrians on sidewalks, entrances and terrace very uncomfortable and causes the pedestrian level wind environment problem. In this studies, hot-wire wind measurement, wind scouring in wind tunnel and numerical computation were carried out to evaluate the wind environment of tall buildings in the prevailing flow conditions in Beijing areas. The results obtained by three techniques were compared and mutually verified. The conclusions drawn from three approaches agree with each other. Also the advantages and limitations of each method were analyzed. It is suggested that the combination of different techniques may produce better assessment of wind environment around high buildings.     

用模式识别方法估计水库诱发地震危险性

水库蓄水后可能诱发的地震危险性估计是工程地震工作中的一项重要环节,其中可能诱发的地震强度是人们特别关注的要素。本文基于国内外41个水库地震震例,从目前对水库地震形成机理的认识水平出发,提取了15个可能的诱震指标,应用模式识别的一些方法对水库蓄水后的诱发地震危险性进行复因子评估,通过内符检验讨论了这些方法在水库诱发地震危险性上的估计效能,给出了其错误概率估计值,结果表明,这些方法能够相对客观和合理地评定水库蓄水后可能诱发的地震危险性水平大小,在工程上具有一定应用价值。     

熵权决策法在地震灾害风险评价中的应用

为了更好地评价和比较城市的地震灾害风险,建立了基于熵权的新的地震灾害风险指数(EDRI)模型。在地震灾害风险指数的建立过程中,根据信息熵理论计算熵权,采用熵权与专家意见相结合的方法确定风险指数的综合权重,从而使模型权重的确定更加合理。通过算例分析,新的计算模型可以降低城市地震灾害风险指数对专家主观意见的依赖,从而使计算变得更加客观、科学。     

Probabilistic evaluation of flood hazard in urban areas using Monte Carlo simulation

The goal of the presented research was the derivation of flood hazard maps, using Monte Carlo simulation of flood propagation at an urban site in the UK, specifically an urban area of the city of Glasgow. A hydrodynamic model describing the propagation of flood waves, based on the De Saint Venant equations in two‐dimensional form capable of accounting for the topographic complexity of the area (preferential outflow paths, buildings, manholes, etc.) and for the characteristics of prevailing imperviousness typical of the urban areas, has been used to derive the hydrodynamic characteristics of flood events (i.e. water depths and flow velocities). The knowledge of the water depth distribution and of the current velocities derived from the propagation model along with the knowledge of the topographic characteristics of the urban area from digital map data allowed for the production of hazard maps based on properly defined hazard indexes. These indexes are evaluated in a probabilistic framework to overcome the classical problem of single deterministic prediction of flood extent for the design event and to introduce the concept of the likelihood of flooding at a given point as the sum of data uncertainty, model structural error and parameterization uncertainty. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

珠江三角洲未来几年地震危险性分析

在分析珠江三角洲地区历史、现今地震活动性和前兆观测资料后认为,今后几年该区将处于地震活动水平较低的平静时段,陆地区域发生MS5级以上地震的可能性很小.未来地震的可能性将主要来自陆地4级地震、周边地区和近海海域5级地震.     

Estimating the uncertainty of video-based flow velocity and discharge measurements due to the conversion of field to image coordinates

Video-based hydrometry continues to develop for contactless discharge measurements, automated flood gauging stations and the use of crowd-sourced flood videos for discharge reconstruction. Irrespective of the velocimetry algorithm used (LSPIV, STIV, PTV…), orthorectification of the images is necessary beforehand, so that each pixel has the same known physical size. Most times, the orthorectification transformation is a plane-to-plane projection from the water surface to the camera sensor. Two approaches are typically used to compute the coefficients of this transformation: their calibration from ground reference points (GRPs) with known image and real-world coordinates (“implicit calibration”) or their calculation from the values of the intrinsic (focal length, sensor size) and extrinsic (position, angles) parameters of the camera (“explicit calibration”). In this paper, we develop a Bayesian method which makes it possible to combine the implicit and explicit approaches in a probabilistic framework. The Bayesian approach can be used from situations suitable for the implicit approach (plenty of GRPs) to situations propitious to the explicit approach (well-known camera parameters). The method is illustrated using synthetic views of a typical streamgauging scene with known true values of the parameters and GRP coordinates. We show that combining observational and prior information is generally beneficial to get precise estimates. Further tests carried out with a real scene of the Arc River at Randens, France, in flood conditions illustrate the impact of the number, uncertainty and spatial distribution of GRPs on the final uncertainty of flow velocity and discharge.     

Hydrogeological aspects of groundwater drainage of the urban areas in Kuwait City

Residential areas in Kuwait City have witnessed a dramatic rise in subsurface water tables over the last three decades. This water rise phenomenon is attributed mainly to over irrigation practices of private gardens along with leakage from domestic and sewage networks. This paper presents a comprehensive study for urban drainage in two selected areas representing the two hydrogeological settings encountered in Kuwait City. In the first area, a vertical drainage scheme was applied successfully over an area of 1 km². The system has been under continuous operation and monitoring for more than 4 years without problems, providing a permanent solution for the water rise problem in this area. The hydrogeological system has approached steady state conditions and the water levels have dropped to about 3·5 m below the ground surface. In the second area a dual drainage scheme, composing of horizontal and vertical elements, is proposed. Horizontal elements are suggested in the areas where the deep groundwater contains hazardous gases that may pose environmental problems. The proposed drainage scheme in the second area has not yet been implemented. Field tests were conducted to assess the aquifer parameters in both areas and a numerical model has been developed to predict the long‐term response of the hydrogeological system in the two areas under consideration. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Analysis of magnetic anomalies due to some two-dimensional bodies using the Mellin transform

An interpretation technique using the Mellin transform is suggested for the analysis of magnetic anomalies due to some two-dimensional structures namely (i) a vertical sheet of both finite and infinite depth extent, (ii) a thick dyke and (iii) a horizontal circular cylinder. The Mellin transformed magnetic anomalies resemble gamma functions which are amenable to an easy interpretation. This procedure is illustrated with a small number of synthetic examples in each case. The practicality of the method is exemplified with the well-known vertical magnetic anomalies of Kursk (USSR) in the case of an infinite sheet model and Karimnagar magnetic anomaly (India) in the case of a horizontal circular cylinder. The results are compared with the techniques already available and found to be reliable.     

Estimating building exposure and impact to volcanic hazards in Icod de los Vinos,Tenerife (Canary Islands)

Principal and subsidiary building structure characteristics and their distribution have been inventoried in Icod, Tenerife (Canary Islands) and used to evaluate the vulnerability of individual buildings to three volcanic hazards: tephra fallout, volcanogenic earthquakes and pyroclastic flows. The procedures described in this paper represent a methodological framework for a comprehensive survey of all the buildings at risk in the area around the Teide volcano in Tenerife. Such a methodology would need to be implemented for the completion of a comprehensive risk assessment for the populations under threat of explosive eruptions in this area. The information presented in the paper is a sample of the necessary data required for the impact estimation and risk assessment exercises that would need to be carried out by emergency managers, local authorities and those responsible for recovery and repair in the event of a volcanic eruption. The data shows there are micro variations in building stock characteristics that would influence the likely impact of an eruption in the area. As an example of the use of this methodology for vulnerability assessment, we have applied a deterministic simulation model of a volcanic eruption from Teide volcano and its associated ash fallout which, when combined with the vulnerability data collected, allows us to obtain the vulnerability map of the studied area. This map is obtained by performing spatial analysis with a Geographical Information System (GIS). This vulnerability analysis is included in the framework of an automatic information system specifically developed for hazard assessment and risk management on Tenerife, but which can be also applied to other volcanic areas. The work presented is part of the EU-funded EXPLORIS project (Explosive Eruption Risk and Decision Support for EU Populations Threatened by Volcanoes, EVR1-2001-00047).     

An evaluation of hemolymph cholinesterase activities in the tropical scallop,Euvola (Pecten) ziczac,for the rapid assessment of pesticide exposure

The use of sequential measurements of hemolymph cholinesterase activities as a non-invasive biomarker of seasonal organophosphate/carbamate exposure was investigated for the tropical scallop, Euvola (Pecten) ziczac. Overall activities of both acetylcholinesterase and butyrylcholinesterase were relatively high compared to studies with bivalve tissues. Acute in vivo experiments showed inhibition of hemolymph acetylcholinesterase activity at concentrations of the organophosphate insecticide chlorpyrifos of 0.1, 1 and 10 ng l(-1). Monthly sampling of hemolymph from scallops at two sites in Bermuda over a 15 month period showed seasonal acetylcholinesterase and butyrylcholinesterase inhibition. Direct and indirect evidence suggests that this inhibition did not relate to biochemical or physiological changes associated with gonad maturation and spawning, but rather reflected diffuse contamination of the marine environment by cholinesterase inhibitors or increased bioavailability of such inhibitors at these times. Repetitive sampling of scallop hemolymph for cholinesterase activities represents a rapid, sensitive and non-invasive method for assessing seasonal, sublethal pesticide exposure in these commercially important bivalves and suggests a wider use in marine pollution monitoring.     

北京市局部地区电磁辐射监测结果分析

随着我国经济和社会的不断发展,人们对生态环境质量的要求也越来越高.电磁辐射污染对人类可能造成的危害,也引起了越来越多的重视.2004年８月至2005年6月,我们对北京市局部地区进行电磁辐射监测,通过手持式GPS定位选点,使用国产H-2A型非选频式全向智能场强仪测量4个地区的电磁辐射水平.对测量结果的分析表明,城市不同地区的电磁辐射水平与人类的活动、区域内的人文环境关系密切.广播电视发射系统、城市交通道路、输变电系统和人类的活动对区域的电磁辐射污染水平有很大的影响.     

Annual fossil organic carbon delivery due to mechanical and chemical weathering of marly badlands areas

A key issue in the study of the carbon cycle is constraining the stocks and fluxes in and between C‐reservoirs. Among these, the role and importance of fossil organic carbon (FOC) release by weathering of outcropping sedimentary rocks on continental surfaces is still debated and remains poorly constrained. Our work focuses on FOC fluxes due to chemical and mechanical weathering of marls in two experimental watersheds with typical badlands geomorphology (Draix watersheds, Laval and Moulin, Alpes de Haute Provence, France). Organic matter from bedrock, soil litter and riverine particles are characterized by Rock‐Eval 6 pyrolysis. FOC fluxes due to mechanical weathering are then estimated by monitoring the annual particulate solid exports at the outlets of the watersheds (1985–2005 period). FOC fluxes from chemical weathering were calculated using Ca²⁺ concentrations in dissolved loads (year 2002) to assess the amount of FOC released by the dissolution of the carbonate matrix. Results show that FOC delivery is mainly driven by mechanical weathering, with a yield ranging from 30 to 59 t km^‐2 yr^‐1 in the Moulin (0.08 km²) and Laval (0.86 km²) catchments, respectively, (1985–2005 average). The release of FOC attributed to chemical weathering was 2.2 to 4.2 t km^‐2 for the year 2002. These high FOC fluxes from badlands are similar to those observed in tectonically active mountain catchments. At a regional scale, badland outcropping within the Durance watershed does not exceed 0.25% in area of the Rhône catchment, but could annually deliver 12 000 t yr^‐1 of FOC. This flux could correspond to 27% of the total particulate organic carbon (POC) load exported by the Rhône River to the Mediterranean Sea. At a global scale, our findings suggest that erosion of badlands may contribute significantly to the transfer of FOC from continental surfaces to depositional environments. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Surface exposure dating of the Veliki vrh rock avalanche in Slovenia associated with the 1348 earthquake

Over 30 samples from bedrock and boulders from the Veliki vrh rock avalanche have been collected for surface exposure dating. The limestone rocks have been radiochemically treated to isolate and determine long-lived ³⁶Cl by accelerator mass spectrometry. It could be shown that the Veliki vrh rock avalanche from the Košuta Mountain (Slovenia) event can be very likely linked to one of the major historical earthquakes in Europe happening on the 25^th of January 1348. Taken into account independently determined denudation rates, inherited ³⁶Cl originating from pre-exposure at shallow depths (20–55 m) could be calculated. The high amount of inherited ³⁶Cl, i.e. 17–46% of the total ³⁶Cl, makes this site not suitable for a precise determination of the ³⁶Cl production rate as it was originally anticipated. Veliki vrh is a “classic” rock avalanche of high velocity. The slope failed in the upper part with a translational slide predominantly along the bedding planes, whereas dynamic fragmentation is the cause for further crushing of the material and the long runout.     

华北某些地区地震活动特征的研究

以中国强地震目录资料(中国地震局监测预报司预报管理处编，1999)为基础。统计研究了1300～1988年华北地区6级以上地震发生后，10年内再次发生5级以上地震的优势空间范围。根据这一统计特征。印证性地分析了10余年来华北的晋、冀、内蒙古交界地区至包头一带5级以上地震空间活动特点。另外还研究了1981年以来晋、冀、内蒙古交界地区与晋、冀、鲁、豫交界地区5级以上地震。以及1998年至2001年11月晋、冀、内蒙古交界地区与唐山地区地震活动的呼应关系。并对其成因作了初步讨论。     

Changing of flood risk due to climate and development in Huaihe River basin,China

Assessing the response of flood risk caused by climate change and social development is very important in terms of determining high risk areas in different periods as well as making disaster mitigating plans. We establish a flood risk assessment model based on geographic information system and natural disaster risk assessment theory. In order to compare the index value in different periods and spaces, we utilize the spatial and temporal standardization method to standardized index. To avoid one-sidedness caused by using one weight calibration method only, we employ the least square method to synthesize weights determine by the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method and the Entropy weight method. We adopt the observed data of the Huaihe River basin from 1960 to 2010 to assess the changing of flood risk between period I (1960–1980) and period II (1980–2010). After pre-processing the atmosphere–ocean coupled global circulation models (AOGCM) data, including bias correction and downscaling, we use the corrected data to predict the flood risk during future period III (2010–2040). The results show that high risk areas and moderate to high risk areas during period I take up 17.68 and 33.88 % of the total area of the Huaihe River basin, respectively. During period II, the high risk areas show an increasing percent change of 1.93 % and a decreasing trend in moderate to high risk areas of 3.8 %. Compared with period II, the high risk areas and the moderate to high risk areas during period III show an increasing trend of 8.02 and 0.77 %, which is the result of the combined effects of climate change and social development. The results presented here can provide useful information for decision-makers.