Attenuation in Southeastern Carpathians area: Result of upper mantle inhomogeneity

The systematic analysis of seismograms recorded on the Romanian territory using Vrancea intermediate-depth earthquakes shows a strong asymmetric pattern relative to the epicentral area: on one side, in the Transylvanian Basin and the Eastern Carpathians (approximately along the inner volcanic chain), the amplitudes are reduced by a factor of 20 on average and the high frequencies are attenuated, in contrast with the other side, in the foreland platform. This pattern is explained by a significant attenuation increase caused by a strong lateral variation of the structure in the upper mantle, immediately towards NW of the Vrancea seismic active volume. This region corresponds to the most recent volcanic activity in the Persani Mountains and with the low-velocity body adjacent toward NW to the high-velocity body subducted beneath Vrancea area as indicated by seismic tomography and heat flow results. The CALIXTO'99 tomography experiment, deployed for 6 months in 1999, provides the largest number of observations for Vrancea earthquakes ever recorded on the Romanian territory. We select data from 8 earthquakes generated in this time interval in the Vrancea nest, which were recorded with signal / noise ratio greater than 5 by at least 25 stations. All of them are small- to moderate-magnitude events (3.6 ≤ M_w ≤ 4.2). The attenuation is much more important in the high-frequency range (> 1 Hz), than at low frequencies. Since the large Vrancea earthquakes can radiate significant energy in the low-frequency range (< 1 Hz), our results show that the seismic hazard level is much more uniform all over the Romanian territory in the low-frequency range than in the high-frequency range.     

基于粗糙集的Logistic回归模型在矿井突水模式识别中的应用

矿井突水模式识别是一个非正态、非线性和高维数据处理问题,也是二分类问题。使用粗糙集属性约简算法对样本数据降维,建立Logistic回归模型,并利用粒子群算法对模型参数优化。该模型对建模样本突水模式识别正确率为90%,对测试样本突水模式识别正确率为100%,效果好于数据不降维的Logistic回归模型。该模型克服了线性回归分析解决二分类问题存在的不足,为矿井突水模式识别提供了一种新思路、新方法。      

Monitoring tectonic movements in the Simitli Graben, SW Bulgaria

Long-term in situ monitoring of slow tectonic movements has been applied to a seismoactive region of SW Bulgaria, within the epicentral zone of one of the strongest earthquakes in Europe (4 April 1904, M=7.8). The region has been found the most seismoactive in Bulgaria being of interest to many scientists. Three spatial extensometers were installed here in carefully selected sites to reflect fault movements on fissures. The extensometer TM-71 used here, enables three-dimensional detecting of even very slow movements with the accuracy of 0.01 mm and high stability over time. After 17 years of measuring, the rates of tectonic movements were established at all three monitoring points. Movements recorded at point B6 located in the seismoactive Kroupnik fault zone are of a relatively high rate. Locally, they show left-lateral strike–slips at rates of ca. 2.7 mm year⁻¹, as well as thrusting with a mean rate of 1.9 mm year⁻¹. Monitoring point K7 located in a fissure of the same zone on a steep slope affected by recent earthquakes has shown an uplift tendency of the block W of the Strouma Fault, with a result of gradual slope subsidence occurring from time to time. Monitoring point K5 located in a fissure of Strouma Fault zone became increasingly active during the last 2 years after 8 years of relative quiescence. Before that, only low left-lateral movements could be observed. Long-term fissure monitoring has shown quite a number of details interpretable to the dynamics of a broad region. Permanent shear displacements were found to develop after earthquakes. It was established that only a certain distinct part of local earthquakes provide such a displacement reaction at the monitoring points showing particular seismic connections.     

Geodetic constraints to the kinematics of the Kapareli fault, reactivated during the 1981, Gulf of Corinth earthquakes

Comparison of historical and of post-seismic triangulation data is used to model vertical crustal movements in the vicinity of the Kapareli Fault (or the Alkynonides earthquakes North Fault), one of the two antithetic normal faults which reactivated during the 1981, Gulf of Corinth (Ms = 6.7) earthquakes. This fault is characterized by a much smaller geomorphological signature than the South (or Perachora) fault of the same seismic sequence. Analysis of geodetic data on the basis of polynomial filtering and elastic dislocation modelling, as well as analysis of structural and coastal change data permits us to conclude that the upper bound in the uncertainty level of most of the available elevation changes is 20–30 cm, usually lower than the corresponding dislocation signal. In addition, the available geodetic data have a systematic pattern and are consistent with structural data. For this reason they permit more precise constraints on the geometry and the role of the Kapareli Fault (or the Alkyonides earthquakes North Fault): its total length is estimated about 17 km, about 50% longer than its surface trace; about 30–40 cm subsidence of its hanging wall, as well as at least 15 cm maximum uplift of its footwall is also inferred. This new evidence suggests that although in the long-term the Kapareli fault may represent a rather secondary, antithetic fault to the Alkyonides earthquakes South (Perachora) fault, during the 1981 earthquakes it probably had a more important structural role.     

Static stress changes induced by the 1924 Pasinler (M = 6.8) and 1983 Horasan-Narman (M = 6.8) earthquakes, Northeastern Turkey

The 1924 Pasinler & 1983 Horasan-Narman earthquakes which struck the Erzurum region occurred on the NE–SW-trending Horasan fault zone about 60 km east of Erzurum basin. The inversion of teleseismic seismograms, the aftershock pattern and the surface faulting of the 30 October 1983 ( M _s = 6.8) Horasan-Narman earthquake indicate that it had dominantly left-lateral motion. One moderately sized aftershock occurred 8 h after the main event and two others a year later on the NE extension of the fault zone. The aftershock distribution dominantly overlapped with the Horasan fault zone, and the aftershocks also migrated from south-west to north-east within the year following the mainshock. The results obtained from modelling of static stress changes caused by the 1983 earthquake are consistent with the spatial distribution of aftershocks. Macroseismic observations of the 1924 earthquake ( M _s = 6.8) indicated that this event occurred on the SW extension of the Horasan fault zone. Static stress modelling of the 1924 earthquake, by using the same input parameters of the 1983 event, has shown that its occurrence increased the stress in the region of the 1983 rupture zone. The static stress changes caused both by the 1924 and the 1983 earthquakes has increased the failure stress at the NE and SW extensions of the Horasan fault zone and in Narman area. Furthermore, the stress has decreased in the vicinity of the Erzurum fault zone, east of the city of Erzurum, the largest city in eastern Turkey, and in the populated Sarikamis area. This might delay the occurrence of a future probable damaging earthquake in these areas.     

Seismic activity along the central america volcanic arc: is it related to subduction of the Cocos plate?

We determine seismic strain rate of tectonic earthquakes along the Central America Volcanic Arc. We then compare this result to those obtained from earthquakes related to the convergence of the Cocos and Caribbean plates and to earthquakes in the back-arc region of northern Central America.

The seismic strain-rate tensor for shallow-focus earthquakes along the Central America volcanic arc since 1700, has a compressive eigenvector with a magnitude of 0.7 × 10⁻⁸ year⁻¹, and oriented in a 357° azimuth. The extensive eigenvector is oriented in a 86° azimuth, with a magnitude of 0.82 × 10⁻⁸ year⁻¹. When only Centroid Moment-tensor solutions (CMT) are considered, the respective eigenvectors are 1.2 × 10⁻⁸ year⁻¹ and 1.0 × 10⁻⁸ year⁻¹.

The compressive eigenvector from the seismic strain-rate tensor for earthquakes along the Cocos-Caribbean convergent margin is 2.0 × 10⁻⁸ year⁻¹, plunging at 25°, and oriented in a 29° azimuth. Its magnitude and direction are similar to those of the compressive eigenvector for earthquakes along the volcanic arc. The extensive eigenvector along the convergent margin, on the other hand, has a large vertical component. The compressive and extensive eigevenvectors are 4.9 × 10⁻⁸ year⁻¹ and 4.6 × 10⁻⁸ year⁻¹, using only CMTs as the database.

Earthquakes along the grabens of northern Central America yield a seismic strain-rate tensor whose extensive eigenvector has a magnitude of 2.4 × 10⁻⁸ year⁻¹, oriented in a 109° azimuth. Magnitude and direction are similar to those of the extensive eigenvector for earthquakes along the volcanic arc. The compressive eigenvector along the grabens is practically vertical.

Similarities in magnitudes and directions for compressive and extensive eigenvectors suggest to us that the strain field along the Central America volcanic arc is the result of compression along the convergent Cocos-Caribbean margin, and extension in the back-arc region, along the grabens of northern Central America. This field is resolved as strike-slip faulting along the arc.     

地震台站地电场异常特性: 以中国航空工业总公司625研究所为例

通过分析中国航空工业总公司625研究所地电场监测站30多年监测的原始资料, 提取了其中8组数据, 包括4组地电场中的长期异常信号和4组对应震级M_s6.0以上的地震震前短临异常信号.发现这些异常信号有以下特征: 地电场中的长期监测图中包括了许多不同大小、距离远近地震的孕震信息, 其中近区大震会主控一条或多条曲线的走势, 远大、近小的地震会造成曲线时上时下的振荡; 从4组地电场短临信号监测图中发现震前地电场异常总体表现为下降(上升)—折返—回跳—发震的模式, 说明地电场异常变化形态具有相似性和重复性, 证明地电场观测确实能监测到震前异常.发现适合该监测站预测发震时间的新方法: 根据折返天数与回跳天数大致相等, 即回跳日期加上折返天数为发震日期, 证明地电场短临预测方法具有一定的实用性.      

模糊模式识别神经网络预测模型及其应用

提出了模糊模式识别神经网络预测模型,开辟了神经网络拓朴结构建模的新思路。模型的激励函数采用了模糊模式识别模型。最后给出中长期水文预测的应用实例。     

Role of African–Eurasian plate setting in the felt areas of intermediate‐depth earthquakes: an investigation using crowdsourced data

Greek intermediate‐depth earthquakes, occurring in the subducted plate of the Hellenic Arc, are felt at greater distances than expected, reaching Italy in some cases. We study in detail macroseismic intensity data from intermediate‐depth Italian and Greek earthquakes collected from Internet users who felt the shaking in Italy. The huge amount of data allowed us to outline the felt/not‐felt limit and to find a correspondence between attenuation areas and the presence of asthenospheric material at shallow depths. We show that plate boundaries, known to produce the majority of earthquakes, are, in some specific cases, the boundaries of areas in which earthquakes are felt. The Ionian subducted lithosphere propagates seismic waves with low attenuation over large distances, whereas high‐attenuation zones in Italy, linked to asthenospheric upwelling, limit the propagation, as evidenced also by PGA values. We identify a typical pattern that can be used to recognize intermediate‐depth earthquakes, and to properly locate historical events.     

A seismic source zone model for the seismic hazard assessment of the Italian territory

We designed a new seismic source model for Italy to be used as an input for country-wide probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) in the frame of the compilation of a new national reference map.

We started off by reviewing existing models available for Italy and for other European countries, then discussed the main open issues in the current practice of seismogenic zoning.

The new model, termed ZS9, is largely based on data collected in the past 10 years, including historical earthquakes and instrumental seismicity, active faults and their seismogenic potential, and seismotectonic evidence from recent earthquakes. This information allowed us to propose new interpretations for poorly understood areas where the new data are in conflict with assumptions made in designing the previous and widely used model ZS4.

ZS9 is made out of 36 zones where earthquakes with M_w > = 5 are expected. It also assumes that earthquakes with M_w up to 5 may occur anywhere outside the seismogenic zones, although the associated probability is rather low. Special care was taken to ensure that each zone sampled a large enough number of earthquakes so that we could compute reliable earthquake production rates.

Although it was drawn following criteria that are standard practice in PSHA, ZS9 is also innovative in that every zone is characterised also by its mean seismogenic depth (the depth of the crustal volume that will presumably release future earthquakes) and predominant focal mechanism (their most likely rupture mechanism). These properties were determined using instrumental data, and only in a limited number of cases we resorted to geologic constraints and expert judgment to cope with lack of data or conflicting indications. These attributes allow ZS9 to be used with more accurate regionalized depth-dependent attenuation relations, and are ultimately expected to increase significantly the reliability of seismic hazard estimates.     

Geoblocks Recognition and Delineation of the Earthquake Prone Areas in the Tuan Giao Area (Northwest Vietnam)

The goal of the paper is to reveal the hierarchical block structure in the Tuan Giao area (Northwest Vietnam) and, on that base, to identify areas prone to earthquakes with M ≥ 5. Four large geoblocks of the second rank have been delineated on the basis of the joint analysis of geological, geophysical, geomorphic, and remote sensing data. The second rank geoblocks have been divided into smaller sub-blocks of the third rank. The recent geodynamics of the geoblocks have been characterized using geomorphic, seismological, gravity, and GPS data.The system of the delineated geoblocks is viewed as the Geodynamic Blocks model. The areas prone to earthquakes with M ≥ 5 have been identified using the pattern recognition algorithm CORA-3. The objects of the recognition were defined as circular areas, where boundaries of the geoblocks intersect each other. The recognition results confirm high seismic potential of the study region and provide information on potential earthquake sources for seismic hazard assessment: a number of boundary intersections have been identified as areas prone to earthquakes with M ≥ 5, where events of such magnitude have not been recorded up to date. Mordern geothermal activity and anomalies of dissolved methane (up to 10000 nL/L), helium and hydrogen in the hot mineral water springs prove high permeability of the study area and its active seismo-tectonic state.     

Recognition of Strong Earthquake Prone Areas in the Altai–Sayan–Baikal Region

The locations of areas prone to strong earthquakes (M ≥ 6.0) in the Altai–Sayan–Baikal region are determined. Based on a scheme of morphostructural zoning of the region and by using the CORA-3 pattern recognition algorithm, all intersections of morphostructural lineaments are separated into two classes: the highly seismic intersections in the vicinities of which strong earthquakes can occur and low seismic in the vicinities of which only earthquakes with M < 6.0 are possible. Recognition was performed for the vectors the components of which were measured values of the geological–geophysical characteristics describing the respective intersection. The result obtained allows the zones of high seismic hazard to be identified more reliably in the region.

     

Slab break‐off – abrupt cut or gradual detachment? New insights from the Vrancea Region (SE Carpathians,Romania)

Slab break-off is a plate-tectonic process which does not only return lithospheric material into the deeper mantle, but also has severe effects on surface movements and seismic hazard: slab-pull induced seismicity is reduced when the subducted slab decouples from the overlying crust. In the Vrancea region (SE Carpathians), strong earthquakes frequently occur at intermediate depths (70–180 km) in a laterally small volume, while the crust shows low but distributed seismicity. The stress pattern shows similar partitioning with vertical extension in the slab and no preferred orientation in the overlying crust. Both features indicate a decoupling between slab and overlying crust, either by slab break-off or delamination. However, the strong vertical elongation of the slab requires that the upper end of the slab is fixed vertically. Thus, a 'soft' coupling is assumed that is strong enough to enable elongation of the slab, but weak enough to inhibit 'quasi-static' stress transfer to the overlying crust.     

Stratigraphic evidence for millennial-scale temporal clustering of earthquakes on a continental-interior fault: Holocene Mississippi River floodplain deposits, New Madrid seismic zone, USA

The earthquake cycles that characterize continental-interior areas that are far from active plate boundaries have proven highly cryptic and difficult to resolve. We used a novel paleoseismic proxy to address this issue. Namely, we reconstructed Holocene Mississippi River channels from maps of floodplain strata in order to identify channel perturbations reflective of major displacement events on the high-hazard and mid-plate Reelfoot thrust fault, New Madrid seismic zone, U.S.A. Only three discrete slip events are currently documented for the Reelfoot fault ( AD 900,  AD 1450, and AD 1812). This study extends this record and, thus, illustrates the utility of stratigraphic proxies as paleoseismic tools. We concurrently offer here some of the first quantified response times for tectonically induced channel pattern changes in large alluvial rivers.

We identified at least two cycles of pervasive meandering that were interrupted by channel-straightening responses occurring upstream of the Reelfoot fault scarp. These straightening responses initiated at 2244 BC +/− 269 to 1620 BC +/− 220 and  AD 900, respectively, and each records initiation of a period of Reelfoot fault slip after millennia of relative tectonic quiescence. The second (or New Madrid) straightening response was triggered by the previously known  AD 900 fault slip event, and this initial low sinuosity has been protracted until the modern day by the latter  AD 1450 and AD 1812 events. The first (or Bondurant) straightening response began a period of several hundred to  1400 years of low river sinuosity which evidences a similar period of multiple recurrent displacement events on the Reelfoot fault. These Bondurant events predate the existing paleoseismic record for the Reelfoot fault.

These data offer initial evidence that slip events on the Reelfoot fault were temporally clustered on millennial scales and, thus, offers the first direct evidence for millennial-scale clustering of earthquakes on a continental-interior fault. This carries additional ramifications. Namely, faults that have been quiescent and non-hazardous for millennia could re-enter an enduring period of recurrent hazardous earthquakes with little warning. Likewise, the Reelfoot fault also reveals evidence of temporal clustering of earthquakes on short-term cycles (months), as well as evidence for longer-term reactivation cycles (10⁴–10⁶ years). This introduces the possibility that temporal clustering could be hierarchical on some continental-interior faults.     

Palaeoseismicity of the Dinar fault, SW Turkey

The NW–SE-trending Dinar fault is an active normal fault upon which the 1 October 1995 earthquake ( M  = 6.1) occurred. The 1995 earthquake resulted in a c. 10-km-long surface rupture with the south side down-thrown by 50 cm. Investigations of two trench sites perpendicular to the 1995 rupture suggest at least two prior large earthquakes in historical times. Radiocarbon dates and historical records constrain the age of events between 1500 bc and ad 53, event 2 possibly coinciding with the earthquake that damaged Dinar (the ancient city of Apamea Kibotos) in c. 80 bc and event 1 around 1500 bc. Surface displacements determined for events 1 and 2, compared to the 1995 surface faulting, indicate that M > 6.8 earthquakes were associated with each rupture. Using the total displacement in trenches, a slip rate of about 1 mm yr⁻¹ can be estimated for the Dinar fault. Observations suggest that the return period for large earthquakes in the Dinar area is about 1500–2000 years.     

Intraslab seismicity and thermal stress in the subducted Cocos plate beneath central Mexico

We present a model of the subducting Cocos slab beneath Central Mexico, that provides an explanation for stresses causing the occurrence of the majority of the intraslab earthquakes which are concentrated in a long flat segment. Based on the recently developed thermal models for the Central Mexico subduction zone, the thermal stresses due to non-uniform temperature contrast in the subducting slab are calculated using a finite element approach. The slab is considered purely elastic but due to high temperature at its bottom the behavior is considered as ductile creep. The calculation results show a  20 km slab core characterized by a tensional state of stress with stresses up to 70 MPa. On the other hand, the top of the slab experiences high compressive thermal stresses up to 110 MPa, depending on the elastic constants used and location along the flat part of the subducting plate. These compressive stresses at the top of the slab are not consistent with the exclusive normal fault intraslab earthquakes, and two different sources of stress are proposed.

The trenchward migration of the Mexican volcanic arc for the last 7 Ma indicates an increase of the slab dip through time. This observation suggests that the gravity torque might exceed the suction torque. Considering the flat slab as an embedded plate subject to an applied clockwise net torque of 0.5 × 10¹⁶–1.5 × 10¹⁶ N m, the upper half would exhibit tensional stresses of 40–110 MPa that can actually balance the compressive thermally induced stresses.

An alternative stress source might come from the slab pull force caused by the slab positive density anomaly. Based on our density anomaly estimations (75 ± 20 kg/m³), a 350 km slab length, dipping at 20° into the asthenosphere, induces a slab pull force of 1.7 × 10¹²–4.6 × 10¹² N m. This force produces a tensional stress of 41–114 MPa, sufficient to balance the compressive thermal stresses at the top of the flat slab.

The linear superposition of the thermally and torque or slab pull induced stresses shows tensile stresses up to 60–180 MPa inside the flat slab core. Also, our results suggest that the majority of the intraslab earthquakes inside the flat slab are situated where the resultant stresses are larger than 40–80 MPa.

This study provides a reasonable explanation for the existence of exclusively normal fault intraslab earthquakes in the flat slab beneath Central Mexico, and also it shows that thermal stresses due to non-uniform reheating of subducting slabs play a considerable role in the total stress field.     

无网格法中节点非均匀自动布置及背景网格生成

针对形状复杂的区域,提出了一种基于节点间距函数的非均匀节点自动布置和背景网格的生成算法。该算法对不规则区域适应能力强,节点可任意加密,无需人工干预,且有实现简单、耗时少等特点。这些自动布置的离散节点可直接用于无网格数值计算。用所布置的节点进一步生成背景网格简单易行且高效,生成的背景网格还可直接用来进行后置处理。     

Seismic wave propagation analysis in vertical arrays at Kashiwazaki–Kariwa nuclear power plant site by using modified normalized input–output minimization (mod‐NIOM) method

A new approach on numerical modeling of wave propagation is introduced and is used to analyze the effect of earthquake magnitudes (ground motion amplitudes) on wave propagation. In this method, the sum of the maximum amplitudes of the first output model at time 0 s and rest of the output models at different times are normalized to unity. Considering this as a constraint, the sum of the weighted‐squared Fourier amplitudes is minimized by using the Lagrange multiplier method. The proposed method can reveal the relationship of actual time histories by showing simple clear peaks. This method is used to analyze the time histories of various earthquake events at different vertical array sites of the Kashiwazaki–Kariwa nuclear power plant of Tokyo electric power company (TEPCO). The wave arrival times obtained from this method and down‐hole measurements are compared. The results show increase in the arrival times at surface layer when the magnitude of earthquake is large. The results reveal that the amplitudes of small magnitude earthquakes at depths are small and are largely amplified at surface, whereas in case of large magnitude earthquakes, the amplitudes are large at depths and are deamplified at surface reflecting the effects of the strain‐dependent soil properties that result in non‐linear site response to strong shaking. The results also show that the reflected peak amplitudes are higher for small magnitude earthquakes than for large magnitude earthquakes. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Estimation of aseismic crustal-strain using radon precursors of the 2003 <Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis> 6.8, 2006 <Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis> 6.1, and 2008 <Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis> 5.0 earthquakes in eastern Taiwan

Aseismic crustal-strain signals prior to the 2003 Mw 6.8 Chengkung, 2006 Mw 6.1 Taitung, and 2008 Mw 5.0 Antung earthquakes with epicenters located 20, 55 and 11 km, respectively, from the Antung radon-monitoring station have been calculated using the radon anomalies recorded. Specifically, radon decreased from background levels of 791 ± 46, 762 ± 57, and 735 ± 48 pCi/L to minima of 326 ± 9, 371 ± 9, and 480 ± 43 pCi/L prior to the 2003, 2006, and 2008 earthquakes, respectively. The estimated aseismic crustal-strain maxima at the Antung hot spring during the rock dilation stage were 3.6, 2.7, and 1.3 ppm, respectively. The v-shaped radon pattern recognized in all three anomalies is valuable for detecting the aseismic strain precursory to disastrous earthquakes in the Antung hot spring which is situated in a brittle fractured aquifer of limited recharge surrounded by ductile mudstone.     

A spatial statistical analysis of the occurrence of earthquakes along the Red Sea floor spreading: clusters of seismicity

The aim of this study is to apply spatial pattern analysis techniques to a seismic data catalog of earthquakes beneath the Red Sea to try and detect clusters and explore global and local spatial patterns in the occurrence of earthquakes over the years from 1900 to 2009 using a geographical information system (GIS). The spatial pattern analysis techniques chosen for this study were quadrant count analysis, average nearest neighbor, global Moran’s I, Getis–Ord general G, Anselin Local Moran’s I, Getis–Ord Gi*, kernel density estimation, and geographical distributions. Each of these techniques was implemented in the GIS so that computations could be carried out quickly and efficiently. Results showed that (1) these techniques were capable of detecting clusters in the spatial patterns of the occurrence of the earthquakes; (2) both global and local spatial statistics indicate that earthquakes were clustered in the study area beneath the Red Sea; (3) earthquakes with higher magnitudes on the Richter scale were notably concentrated in the central and southern parts of the Red Sea where seismic activities were most active; and (4) earthquakes with moderate magnitudes on the Richter scale were particularly concentrated in the northern part of the Red Sea where there is an area of late-stage continental rifting comprised of a broad trough without a recognizable spreading center, although there were several small, isolated deep troughs. We conclude that the pattern analysis techniques applied to the seismic data catalog of earthquakes beneath the Red Sea could detect clusters in the occurrence of earthquakes from 1900 to 2009.