玄武岩中发生水库诱发地震问题初析

玄武岩中发生水库诱发地震问题初析胡平，陈献程（国家地震局地质研究所北京１０００２９）１引言水库诱发地震是人类兴建水利水电工程后产生的地展现象。它所达到的最高烈度往往远超过相应工程场地的地震基本烈度，因而对工程及库区居民安全造成严重的灾害（如中国新丰江     

乌江渡电站水库地震灾害

乌江渡水电站从蓄水至今已运动14年了，它是我国在岩溶地区建成的一座高原峡谷型的高坝大型水库，库区蓄水后5个月就有频繁的水库诱发地震。1992年发生最大破坏性水库地震为ML4.0。这些地震发生与岩溶地质、地形地儿库区构造有关，库岸地面变形、崩滑流和水库泥沙淤积等灾害较严重。本文对灾害分析后认为，灾害在岩溶地区具有普遍性，提出了预防、防治对策。     

长河坝水电站临时地震台网建设及蓄水前本底地震活动性初步分析

长河坝水电站位于四川省甘孜藏族自治州康定县境内。库区附近地质构造复杂,断裂带纵横交错,水库位于高山峡谷地区。为了分析水库蓄水前库区地震活动的时空分布,建立了一个临时地震观测台网,该台网利用CDMA通信方式将数据实时传输回中心。后利用地震监测台网建成后8个月的地震目录进行了地震活动性分析,分析后认为长河坝水库大坝和猴子岩水库大坝附近记录的事件大部分为施工爆破所致,去除疑似爆破后的人为地震事件后,天然地震主要分布在鲜水河断裂及其东北侧的次级小型断裂上,地震活动性指标b值为0.72,与川滇平均水平值相当。     

地震次生水灾害与饮用水安全保障

水库、大坝、堤防、灌渠等水利工程设施是国计民生的重要保障,但这些设施一旦遭到地震破坏,也可能引发一系列的次生水灾害,给灾区人民生命安全造成重大威胁。鉴于此,本文分析了地震次生水灾害的类型及危害特征,探讨了地震次生水灾害对饮用水的潜在危害,提出了灾区饮用水安全的预防及保障措施,以期对地震灾区的水利工作人员有所借鉴和参考。     

水库地震安全问题分析

通过分析水库周围社会及大坝安全的地震影响、世界水库的发展情况、目前对水库地震安全的认识及其研究技术,认为水库周围的地震威胁有天然地震和水库诱发地震两类,表现为对水库大坝及其附属工程和库区社会均产生影响,因此水库地震安全主要由大坝地震安全、大坝附属工程地震安全和库区社会安全构成。随着水库大坝建设速度的不断加快和大型水库的不断增加,尤其是复杂地质构造区水库建设的增多,有必要在对大坝地震安全进行研究的基础上,重视水库地震安全的研究。     

汶川地震对水电工程的影响

2008年5月12日四川省汶川县发生8.0级地震,这是自1976年7月28日唐山7.8级地震后,中国发生的最大地震之一,给地震灾区人们带来深重的灾难。灾区大中型水电工程经受了远超工程设防标准的强震考验,大坝无一溃决,结构整体安全、稳定。部分建筑设施受到地震滑坡、崩塌等次生灾害影响,经及时抢修维护,均在震后迅速恢复发电及生产。灾区外大中型水电工程经受了强震考验,大坝完好无损,工程建设及运行正常有序。"5.12"汶川地震不是水库蓄水造成的,水库蓄水也不可能诱发"5.12"汶川地震。必须加强对地震机理、机制、地球板块运动、震源活动规律及趋势的探讨、认识与科学研究,逐步提高对地震的预警与预报,预防地震及地质灾害的水平,贯彻执行《防震减灾法》及有关律条例,复核、修订城镇工业、民用建筑和水利、水电工程抗震设防烈度及规范;结合生态环境修复,切实做好灾后重建工作。保护人民生命和财产安全,保障社会主义建设顺利进行,坚持可持续发展,构建和谐社会,确保长治久安。     

改善瀑布沟水库数字地震台网定位精度的办法

利用2006年12月至2007年2月共3个月瀑布沟水库数字地震遥测台网资料,与四川省地震台网的资料用同一定位方法(LOC91)进行对比;后又将四川省地震台网的一些子台资料加入水库台网中,再用LOC91进行定位。经过对比,四川区域台网资料和瀑布沟水库数字地震遥测台网的资料,对该网内地震的定位精度较高,而网缘外的地震若只用水库台网的资料定位则不尽然。瀑布沟水库数字台网一期工程各台的台间距小(台间距约5千米),对网外地震,在定位时张角就拉不开,有时仅有四分之一的张角(甚至更小),因此定位精度不高。若把四川省区域台网的一些子台加入水库台网地震观测资料中,台站基本上"包围"地震,则定位精度就可得到提高。     

溪洛渡和向家坝电站水库蓄水后对乐山市中南部地震活动的影响及对策

分析了乐山市中南部地震地质构造背景和历史地震活动特征，探讨了溪洛渡和向家坝电站水库蓄水后，这一地区断层活动及地震发展趋势，为尽力减轻地震灾害损失提出了相应的对策。     

四川水库地震综述

介绍了四川省境内5例水库诱发地震和2例有争议的疑似水库地诱发震。上述水库诱发地震中既有构造水库地震,又有岩溶塌陷型水库诱发地震,还有水库快速加载诱发的地震,几乎含概了水库诱发地震的所有类型。     

结合天然地震推导水库地震的建筑物易损性

通过类比的方法,选择有现场调查资料并有建筑物破坏比结果的天然地震,基于地震中建筑物震害表现的一致性,以震级、震源深度和极震区烈度为标准,聚类得到与水库地震震害相似的天然地震震例。考虑到宏观经济水平与地震经济损失已有的统计模型,采用了人口密度、人均GDP和三产比例等3个宏观经济指标来反映不同地区的建筑物总体抗震水平,以加权海明(Hamming)距离来定义已知矩阵与目标矩阵的近似度,最终的加权结果即为待求地区的易损性矩阵。通过实际检验,所得的建筑物易损性关系能够反映水库地震的破坏特点,较中强天然地震的易损性要高。这种工作思路也可以用于水库地震其它方面的研究中     

Amplification of flood discharge caused by the cascading failure of landslide dams

The cascading failure of multiple landslide dams can trigger a larger peak flood discharge than that caused by a single dam failure.Therefore,for an accurate numerical simulation,it is essential to elucidate the primary factors affecting the peak discharge of the flood caused by a cascading failure,which is the purpose of the current study.First,flume experiments were done on the cascading failure of two landslide dams under different upstream dam heights,downstream dam heights,and initial downstream reservoir water volumes.Then,the experimental results were reproduced using a numerical simulation model representing landslide dam erosion resulting from overtopping flow.Finally,the factors influencing the peak flood discharge caused by the cascading failure were analyzed using the numerical simulation model.Experimental results indicated that the inflow discharge into the downstream dam at the time when the downstream dam height began to rapidly erode was the main factor responsible for a cascading failure generating a larger peak flood discharge than that generated by a single dam failure.Furthermore,the results of a sensitivity analysis suggested that the upstream and downstream dam heights,initial water volume in the reservoir of the downstream dam,upstream and downstream dam crest lengths,and distance between two dams were among the most important factors in predicting the flood discharge caused by the cascading failure of multiple landslide dams.     

美国密歇根州洪水溃坝灾害机制分析及对我国灾害风险防范的启示

大坝作为水利水电工程设施发挥效用的同时,其安全性对上下游及周边区域生产生活至关重要。除去恐怖袭击等人为破坏因素,大坝面临气象灾害、地震地质灾害等各类灾害风险。 “七下八上”历来是我国南北方主汛期,防御强降雨及其引发的滑坡、泥石流、堰塞湖等次生灾害,对大坝构成的单一、复合、链式灾害风险,是当前刻不容缓的任务。美国洪水大坝应急管理体系建立较早,此次密歇根州洪水溃坝事件发生在美国疫情严峻时期,暴露出诸多问题值得整理与研究,并对当前疫情常态化下我国大坝抵御综合性灾害风险具有良好的启示意义。      

Failures of Waterworks Facilities and Their Consequences

The causes of the failure of various dams, the existing approaches to determining the parameters of flood waves caused by dam failures, and the authors' method of calculation of these waves are considered. Characterization of the consequences of the dam-failure flood wave in the tailwater pool of the Volgograd hydroelectric station and some unfavorable aspects of possible evacuation of the Saratov reservoir are presented.     

Safety assessment for dams of the cascade reservoirs system of Lancang River in extreme situations

Numerous dams have been constructed in the midstream and downstream regions of Lancang River, which form a complex cascade reservoirs system. The safety of dams is critical for water resource management of the whole system. To check the safety of dams, this study used the MIKE 11 model to simulate flood routing along the Lancang River from Xiaowan dam to Jinghong dam under extreme situations of 100-, 500-, 1000-, 5000-, and 10,000-year design floods throughout the whole cascade reservoirs system. The design flood events used as the input for the MIKE 11 model contains the design flood hydrograph of the upstream reservoirs and corresponding flood hydrographs of the intermediate areas. The design flood hydrograph of the upstream reservoirs was obtained using the Equal Frequency Factor Method, and the corresponding flood hydrograph of the intermediate areas was obtained using the Equivalent Frequency Regional Composition Method. The results show that all dams are safe for the 100-, 500-, 1000-, and 5000-year design flood situations throughout the whole cascade reservoirs system, whereas the Manwan and Jinghong dams have a risk of overtopping under a 10,000-year design flood. The curves showing the relationship between the highest water level and return period for the dams are also presented.     

汶川地震中绵阳市梓潼县水库土坝震害调查与分析

5·12汶川特大地震对绵阳市梓潼县170座水库造成了不同程度的破坏和严重的经济损失.依据绵阳市梓潼县水库地震灾害的现场科学考察资料,对绵阳市梓潼县48座高危以上险情水库土坝的震损情况做了初步总结和分析.典型震害现象包括裂缝、渗漏以及泄水建筑物和附属设施的损毁等;以梓潼县3座典型震损水库土坝为例,总结了震损水库的特点和经验教训,给出了一些建设性结论.     

Geographical analysis of river floods and their causes in southern East Siberia

Abstract

On the basis of analysing the genesis, recurrence and severity of flood hazards, a regional flood hazard analysis of the southern area of East Siberia has been carried out. The greatest flood hazard corresponds to the relatively densely populated area of southern East Siberia: the Upper Yenisei, Angara and Upper Lena river basins and the Lake Baikal watershed. Typically, the most hazardous floods include those caused by surges produced by damage to the dams of the Angara—Yenisei hydropower cascade; flash floods are also an extreme hazard. Maximum runoff factors were used to delineate regions within the study area, and the hazard severity was scored for the Irkutsk region. An inventory of the ice-dam and ice-jam areas, as well as of the streamflow sites with maximum runoff of different origins predominating in the Angara and Lena river basins, showed that the study area includes 78 and 19 ice-dam and ice-jam locations, respectively. A high recurrence of ice dams and ice jams is also observed on other rivers.     

A non-traditional approach to the analysis of flood hazard for dams

The traditional and still prevailing approach to characterization of flood hazards to dams is the inflow design flood (IDF). The IDF, defined either deterministically or probabilistically, is necessary for sizing a dam, its discharge facilities and reservoir storage. However, within the dam safety risk informed decision framework, the IDF does not carry much relevance, no matter how accurately it is characterized. In many cases, the probability of the reservoir inflow tells us little about the probability of dam overtopping. Typically, the reservoir inflow and its associated probability of occurrence is modified by the interplay of a number of factors (reservoir storage, reservoir operating rules and various operational faults and natural disturbances) on its way to becoming the reservoir outflow and corresponding peak level—the two parameters that represent hydrologic hazard acting upon the dam. To properly manage flood risk, it is essential to change approach to flood hazard analysis for dam safety from the currently prevailing focus on reservoir inflows and instead focus on reservoir outflows and corresponding reservoir levels. To demonstrate these points, this paper presents stochastic simulation of floods on a cascade system of three dams and shows progression from exceedance probabilities of reservoir inflow to exceedance probabilities of peak reservoir level depending on initial reservoir level, storage availability, reservoir operating rules and availability of discharge facilities on demand. The results show that the dam overtopping is more likely to be caused by a combination of a smaller flood and a system component failure than by an extreme flood on its own.     

Hydrological alterations from water infrastructure development in the Mekong floodplains

The Mekong floodplains, which encompasses the region from Kratie Township in Central Cambodia to the Vietnamese East Sea, is a region of globally renown agricultural productivity and biodiversity. The construction of 135 dams across the Mekong basin and the development of delta‐based flood prevention systems have caused public concern given possible threats on the stability of agricultural and ecological systems in the floodplains. Mekong dams store water upstream and regulate flow seasonality, while in situ flood prevention systems re‐distribute water retention capacity in the floodplains. The main aim of this paper is to evaluate possible impacts of the recent development of both hydropower dams and flood prevention systems on hydrological regimes in the Mekong floodplains. An analysis of measured daily and hourly water level data for key stations in the Mekong floodplains from Kratie to the river mouth in Vietnam was conducted. Hydropower dam information was obtained from the hydropower database managed by the Mekong River Commission, and the MODIS satellite imagery was used to detect changes in flooding extent related to the operation of flood prevention systems in the Vietnam Mekong Delta. Results indicate that the upper part of the floodplains, the Cambodian floodplains, may buffer upstream dam impacts to the Vietnam Mekong Delta. Flood prevention up to date has had the greatest effect on the natural hydrological regime of the Mekong floodplains, evidenced by a significant increase of water level rise and fall rates in the upper delta and causing water levels in the middle delta to increase. The development of flood prevention systems has also effected spatial distribution of flooding as indicated via a time series analysis of satellite imagery. While this development leads to increase localized agricultural productivity, our historical data analysis indicates that development of one region detrimentally affects other regions within the delta, which could increase the risk of future conflicts among regions, economic sectors and the ecological value of these important floodplains. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

对叠溪地震死亡人数的一些考证与分析

1933年8月25日,四川省茂县叠溪发生7级地震,古城叠溪全城被毁,震后45天地震堰塞湖溃决,又造成严重的次生水灾,地震和水灾均引起惨重伤亡。根据对历史资料的考证和分析,初步认为:茂县境内直接死于地震的常住居民为6 865人,该地震造成的死亡总人数约7 000人;地震次生水灾的死亡人数尚难以准确统计,"2 500余人"和"4 000人左右"的说法相对来说比较可信。     

Multi-stage flood routing for gated reservoirs and conjunctive optimization of hydroelectricity income with flood losses

Abstract

A six-stage operation policy for routing of flood hydrographs of return periods from 1.01 year up to the Probable Maximum Flood (PMF) for any dam having a gated spillway is proposed. The gate opening rules are determined depending on the recent pool level. Regardless of the size and timing of any incoming floods, the fixed rules of the six-stage operation policy will provide optimum routing for all, which are classified into six different groups based on their return periods. 10-, 100-, 1000-, 10 000- 100 000-year floods, and PMF are the upper limits for the six groups. Next, an Incremental Dynamic Programming programme is developed to optimize both the firm and secondary energies of hydroelectric generation at monthly periods. First, the six-stage flood routing programme is applied sequentially to three dams, all on the Seyhan River in Turkey, for 18 combinations resulting from different active storages, and optimum flood operation policies for all three dams for all 18 combinations are determined. Second, the Dynamic Programming programme is applied to these three dams, and optimum hydroelectricity generation policies for all 18 combinations are computed. Finally, the optimum active and flood retention storages for the three dams are determined so as to maximize the net probability-weighted present worth of hydroelectricity benefits minus flood damage costs.