A first-order seismotectonic regionalization of Mexico for seismic hazard and risk estimation

The purpose of this work is to define a seismic regionalization of Mexico for seismic hazard and risk analyses. This seismic regionalization is based on seismic, geologic, and tectonic characteristics. To this end, a seismic catalog was compiled using the more reliable sources available. The catalog was made homogeneous in magnitude in order to avoid the differences in the way this parameter is reported by various agencies. Instead of using a linear regression to converts from m _b and M _d to M _s or M _w , using only events for which estimates of both magnitudes are available (i.e., paired data), we used the frequency-magnitude relations relying on the a and b values of the Gutenberg-Richter relation. The seismic regions are divided into three main categories: seismicity associated with the subduction process along the Pacific coast of Mexico, in-slab events within the down-going COC and RIV plates, and crustal seismicity associated to various geologic and tectonic regions. In total, 18 seismic regions were identified and delimited. For each, the a and b values of the Gutenberg-Richter relation were determined using a maximum likelihood estimation. The a and b parameters were repeatedly estimated as a function of time for each region, in order to confirm their reliability and stability. The recurrence times predicted by the resulting Gutenberg-Richter relations obtained are compared with the observed recurrence times of the larger events in each region of both historical and instrumental earthquakes.     

Electromagnetic evidence for lateral inhomogeneities within the Earth's upper mantle

The composition of the upper mantle is of great significance to our understanding of plate tectonics and global evolution. Information about the physical properties of the Earth at upper mantle depths, including lateral variations in electrical conductivity, can be deduced from measurements of the electric and magnetic fields at the Earth's surface. Electromagnetic methods appear to give poorer resolution than do some other methods, for example seismics, but as they are sensitive to quite different properties of a medium they provide a different and complementary class of information.The basic theory of electromagnetic sounding methods is briefly reviewed below, and evidence regarding lateral conductivity inhomogeneities in the Earth's upper mantle is examined. While lateral electrical conductivity inhomogeneities appear to be the rule rather than the exception, the interpretation of electromagnetic data still presents difficulties and the results from many regions are not as yet unambiguous. Where the data are of sufficient resolution, a rapid increase in electrical conductivity can usually be identified within the upper mantle. The depth to this highly conductive zone is different in different tectonic environments, but is broadly consistent between analogous but widely separated tectonic environments. A comparatively shallow conducting region is found beneath the ocean lithosphere. The depth of this region is dependent on lithospheric age. Many of the more shallow conducting regions in both continental and oceanic environments are associated with high heat flow values and seismic low velocity zones. These highly conducting regions may be zones of partial melt.     

On the possible correlation between the Gutenberg-Richter parameters of the frequency-magnitude relationship

The study of the Gutenberg-Richter (GR) parameters a and b has been very important to describe and characterize the seismicity over the different seismic provinces around the world. As far as we know, the possible correlation between the GR parameters a and b has not received enough attention. Bayrak et al. reported the a and b values for 27 active seismic regions around the boundaries of the main tectonic plates of the world. From these data, we found that there exists a positive correlation between the a and b parameters (R =?0.85, R² =?0.72). On the other hand, we made around 150 computer runs of a spring-block model proposed by Olami et al. (Phys Rev Lett 68(8):1244–1247, 1992). This model roughly emulates the interaction between two fault planes and it reaches a self-organized critical state. With these simulations, we also found that the a and b parameters are positively correlated. Motivated by these results, we propose an analytical demonstration that indeed a and b are positively correlated. In addition, we discuss on other possible applications of the spring-block model to actual seismicity and to frictional experiments made with sandpapers.     

The milos island earthquake of March 20, 1992 and its tectonic significance

An earthquake sequence took place on March 20, 1992, in Milos island (Greece) and lasted for about ten days. The main shock registered a magnitudeM _s =5.3 and a depth of 9.6 km. The majority of the events were shallower than 5 km. Theb value of the sequence (b=0.96) is characteristic for tectonic rather than volcanic activity. Geological, tectonic and seismological observations show that in the island of Milos the seismic energy is mainly released along fault zones. Minor swarm activity was also detected.Recent seismic activity is due to the reactivation of the tectonic graben which traverses the central part of the island in NW-SE trend.     

Seismic <Emphasis Type="Italic">b</Emphasis>-Value and the Assessment of Ambient Stress in Northeast India

Seismicity data of northeast India, recorded between 1986 and 1999 by a local network, are analysed for estimation of b-values. Based on the obtained values, viz. low (b ≤ 0.5), moderate (0.5 < b ≤ 0.7) and high (b > 0.7), the study area is classified into different seismic-domains. An assessment of stress level is also carried out in identifying seismic-domains. Seismic activities, though mostly confined in some sectors, are presumably triggered by mutual interaction of the Shillong Plateau, Mikir Hills, Indo-Burman Ranges and the easternmost part of the Himalayas, and the contributions from deep-seated fractures cannot be ignored. The results resemble the seismic character of a foreland setting adjacent to a convergent margin. The b-values estimated for 240 square grids of dimension 0.6° × 0.6° over five seismic domains indicate wide variation. An analysis of cumulative seismic moment release (M _O) in different layers also indicates an anomaly in reference to the total seismic-energy budget of the five zones. The lower b-value and higher M _O recorded at relatively lower depth (~30 km) towards the southwest of the study area might be associated with upward bulging of a strong lithosphere. The bulging is perhaps regionally compensated by the downward flexing of the descending Indian lithosphere beneath the Upper Assam area; features unequivocally observed in any foreland setup. Towards the north and east of the study area, random variations of in both b-value and M _O along the converging zone suggest a varied tectonic environment with active interaction between the tectonic elements in these areas.     

Space-time variations of the frequency-energy relation for mining-induced seismicity in the Ostrava-Karviná mining district

The values of parameters of the relation logN=a–b logE characterize in general the level of seismicity of individual regions. In the present paper, a detailed analysis ofb values of the frequency-energy distributions was carried out with the aid of a database of seismic events recorded by the seismological networks in the Ostrava-Karviná Coal Mine District (Czech Republic), using the least squares regression and maximum likelihood method, as well. The determination ofb value was performed for a relatively large number of regions investigated and for different time series of observations. Special attention has been paid to induced seismic events statistics for the vicinity of one of the coalfaces in the Lazy Mine. It could be generally stated that lowerb values correspond to a higher level of induced seismic activity, while the higher ones correspond to a low and a moderate seismic activity.     

Seismic Zonation of the Delhi Region for Bedrock Ground Motion

An endeavor is made to compute peak ground horizontal accelerations at bedrock level in the Delhi region due to the seismogenic sources present around Delhi. The entire area is divided into six seismogenic sources for which seismic hazard analysis is carried out using the complete and extreme part of the seismicity data. Maximum likelihood estimates of hazard parameters viz., seismic activity rate , b value and maximum probable earthquake M _max are made for each zone. The return periods and the probabilities of occurrence of various magnitudes for return periods of 50, 100 and 1000 years are also computed for each zone. The peak ground acceleration (PGA) values for 20% exceedance in 50 years are then computed for the Delhi region from each zone. The maximum PGA value considering all the zones is 0.34 g, which is due to the Mathura fault zone. The seismogenic zones V and VI, i.e., Mathura fault zone and the Sohna fault zone are observed to be contributing maximum PGA values in the Delhi region governing the isoacceleration contours computed for the region. The seismic zonation map for the PGA values at the bedrock level is obtained for the Delhi region. This can be used directly as input for the microzonation of ground motion at the surface by incorporating the local site conditions.     

活动断裂带断层泥的纳微米构造研究方法

断层泥是研究活动断裂带运动性质和活动习性的重要介质。以往,对断层泥的研究主要借助偏光显微镜和低真空扫描电镜进行,观察到的现象有限。借助高真空扫描电镜从纳微米尺度对断层泥进行更精细化的研究,其方法是对野外断层泥进行定向原状样品采集,通过室内样品自然风干、微样制作、表面镀金和扫描电镜观察,从纳微米尺度研究a-b组构面和a-c组构面的各种变形现象。此方法可以帮助确定断层的运动性质、断层滑动面的新老关系,并可鉴别粘滑过程与蠕滑过程;同时,还可以对工程场地中发现的黏土滑动面进行鉴别,区分地震断层和非地震断层。     

b-value and fractal dimension variations in Iran

Iran sits on a region with a high intrinsic level of seismic activity due to its tectonic setting. Through statistical examination of the earthquakes listed in the catalogue from International Institute of Earthquake Engineering and Seismology (IIEES), this research attempted to calculate some seismicity factors and find correlation between them. A preliminary analysis indicated changes in the b-value of the Gutenberg-Richter relationship over the study region. Thus, the study area was divided into five zones (Alborz, Zagros, Azerbaijan, Central and East) and b-value was computed for each zone. Considering faulting mechanism styles and the b-values in the region, it was found that the lowest b-values belong to the thrust events and strike-slip faulting earthquakes have intermediate values. These findings support previous studies. Furthermore, results of b-value calculation were used for the estimation of accumulated differential stresses (σ₁–σ₂) over each zone. Overall, the b-value for Iran is averagely low which signifies the high stress tectonic regime in this region. Also, by having calculated fractal dimension (D) in each zone, a correlation obtained showing that in Iran region, the b-value correlates to fractal dimension by D = 4.2b–2 relation which does not support Aki's (1981) speculation of D = 3b/c.     

Recent seismicity in Northeast India and its adjoining region

Recent seismicity in the northeast India and its adjoining region exhibits different earthquake mechanisms – predominantly thrust faulting on the eastern boundary, normal faulting in the upper Himalaya, and strike slip in the remaining areas. A homogenized catalogue in moment magnitude, M _W, covering a period from 1906 to 2006 is derived from International Seismological Center (ISC) catalogue, and Global Centroid Moment Tensor (GCMT) database. Owing to significant and stable earthquake recordings as seen from 1964 onwards, the seismicity in the region is analyzed for the period with spatial distribution of magnitude of completeness m _t, b value, a value, and correlation fractal dimension D _C. The estimated value of m _t is found to vary between 4.0 and 4.8. The a value is seen to vary from 4.47 to 8.59 while b value ranges from 0.61 to 1.36. Thrust zones are seen to exhibit predominantly lower b value distribution while strike-slip and normal faulting regimes are associated with moderate to higher b value distribution. D _C is found to vary from 0.70 to 1.66. Although the correlation between spatial distribution of b value and D _C is seen predominantly negative, positive correlations can also be observed in some parts of this territory. A major observation is the strikingly negative correlation with low b value in the eastern boundary thrust region implying a possible case of extending asperity. Incidentally, application of box counting method on fault segments of the study region indicates comparatively higher fractal dimension, D, suggesting an inclination towards a planar geometrical coverage in the 2D spatial extent. Finally, four broad seismic source zones are demarcated based on the estimated spatial seismicity patterns in collaboration with the underlying active fault networks. The present work appraises the seismicity scenario in fulfillment of a basic groundwork for seismic hazard assessment in this earthquake province of the country.     

Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of Switzerland: best estimates and uncertainties

We present the results of a new genera tion of probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for Switzerland. This study replaces the previous intensity-based generation of national hazard maps of 1978. Based on a revised moment-magnitude earthquake catalog for Switzerland and the surrounding regions, covering the period 1300–2003, sets of recurrence parameters (a and b values, M _max ) are estimated. Information on active faulting in Switzerland is too sparse to be used as source model. We develop instead two models of areal sources. The first oriented towards capturing historical and instrumental seismicity, the second guided largely by tectonic principles and express ing the alterative view that seismicity is less stationary and thus future activity may occur in previously quiet regions. To estimate three alterna tive a and b value sets and their relative weighting, we introduce a novel approach based on the modified Akaike information criterion, which allows us to decide when the data in a zone deserves to be fitted with a zone-specific b value. From these input parameters, we simulate synthetic earthquake catalogs of one-million-year duration down to magnitude 4.0, which also reflect the difference in depth distribution between the Alpine Foreland and the Alps. Using a specific predictive spectral ground motion model for Switzerland, we estimate expected ground motions in units of the 5% damped acceleration response spectrum at frequencies of 0.5–10 Hz for all of Switzerland, referenced to rock sites with an estimated shear wave velocity of 1,500 m/s² in the upper 30 m. The highest hazard is found in the Wallis, in the Basel region, in Graubünden and along the Alpine front, with maximum spectral accelerations at 5 Hz frequency reaching 150 cm/s² for a return period of 475 years and 720 cm/s² for 10,000 years. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi: ) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Global tectonics and the geoid

A digitised tectonic model, initially built up for regionalization of Rayleigh waves, is applied to the geoid in order to define the mean geoid heights of the following regions: 3 oceanic regions, namely young oceans (0–30 Ma) middle-aged oceans (30–80 Ma) and old oceans (> 80 Ma); trenches and subduction zones; mountains; and shields. The relative importance of the deep sources is damped or enhanced by progressively removing or adding the lower or higher degrees of the geoid. A statistical approach allows us to quantify the success of the correlation between tectonics and these filtered geoids.Significant variations are observed in these correlations for oceanic regions (including subduction zones) with a cut-off between degree-2 and higher degrees. For degrees ? 3, a well-known trend is observed: high values correspond to young oceans (ridges) and low values to old oceans, high values are also obtained for subduction zones. On the contrary, and unexpectedly, for the degree-2 alone a trend reversal is observed: geoid lows are observed over ridges and geoid highs over old oceans; trenches give the same geoid amplitude than old oceans. Clearly this denotes a degree-2 convection pattern connected to plate tectonics. In addition it is shown that the minimum and maximum inertia axes of the surface distribution of young oceans, and independently of old oceans and trenches, coincide with the Earth's equatorial inertia axes (74°E and 164°E), i.e., with the equatorial extremes of the degree-2 geoid.Plate tectonics is uncorrelated with the polar anomaly of the degree-2 geoid, namely the flattening which is not accounted for by Earth rotation. A north-south axisymmetric convection with a degree-2 pattern is proposed to explain this extra flattening; this model is supported by the latitude dependence of the depth of oceanic ridges.     

Universality of the Seismic Moment-frequency Relation

—We analyze the seismic moment-frequency relation in various depth ranges and for different seismic regions, using Flinn-Engdahl's regionalization of global seismicity. Three earthquake lists of centroid-moment tensor data have been used the Harvard catalog, the USGS catalog, and the Huang et al. (1997) catalog of deep earthquakes. The results confirm the universality of the β-values and the maximum moment for shallow earthquakes in continental regions, as well as at and near continental boundaries. Moreover, we show that although fluctuations in earthquake size distribution increase with depth, the β-values for earthquakes in the depth range of 0–500 km exhibit no statistically significant regional variations. The regional variations are significant only for deep events near the 660 km boundary. For declustered shallow earthquake catalogs and deeper events, we show that the worldwide β-values have the same value of 0.60 ± 0.02. This finding suggests that the β-value is a universal constant. We investigate the statistical correlations between the numbers of seismic events in different depth ranges and the correlation of the tectonic deformation rate and seismic activity (the number of earthquakes above a certain threshold level per year). The high level of these correlations suggests that seismic activity indicates tectonic deformation rate in subduction zones. Combined with the universality of the β-value, this finding implies little if any variation in maximum earthquake seismic moment among various subduction zones. If we assume that earthquakes of maximum size are similar in different depth ranges and the seismic efficiency coefficient, χ, is close to 100% for shallow seismicity, then we can estimate χ for deeper earthquakes for intermediate earthquakes χ≈ 5%, and χ≈ 1% for deep events. These results may lead to new theoretical understanding of the earthquake process and better estimates of seismic hazard.     

Spatio-temporal variations of seismicity in the southern Peru and northern Chile seismic gaps

The spatio-temporal variation of seismicity in the southern Peru and northern Chile seismic gaps is analyzed with teleseismic data (m _b 5.5) between 1965 and 1991, to investigate whether these gaps present the precursory combination of compressional outer-rise and tensional downdip events observed in other subduction zones. In the outer-rise and the inner-trench (0 to 100 km distance from the trench) region, lower magnitude (5.0m _b <5.5) events were also studied. The results obtained show that the gaps in southern Peru and northern Chile do not present compressional outer-rise events. However, both gaps show a continuous, tensional downdip seismicity. For both regions, the change from compressional to tensional regime along the slab occurs at a distance of about 160 km from the trench, apparently associated with the coupled-uncoupled transition of the interplate contact zone. In southern Peru, an increase of compressional seismicity near the interplate zone and of tensional events (5.0m _b 6.3) in the outer-rise and inner-trench regions is observed between 1987 and 1991. A similar distribution of seismicity in the outer-rise and inner-trench regions is observed with earthquakes (m _b <5.5). In northern Chile there is a relative absence of compressional activity (m _b 5.5) near the interplate contact since the sequence of December 21, 1967. After that, only a cluster of low-magnitude compressional events has been located in the area 50 to 100 km from the trench. The compressional activity occurring near the interplate zone in both seismic gaps represents that a seismic preslip is occurring in and near the plate contact. Therefore, if this seismic preslip is associated with the maturity of the gap, the fact that it is larger in southern Peru than in northern Chile may reflect that the former gap is more mature than the latter. However, the more intense downdip tensional activity and the absence of compressional seismicity near the contact zone observed in northern Chile, may also be interpreted as evidence that northern Chile is seismically more mature than southern Peru. Therefore, the observed differences in the distribution of stresses and seismicity analyzed under simple models of stress accumulation and transfer in coupled subduction zones are not sufficient to assess the degree of maturity of a seismic gap.     

Probabilistic Assessment of Earthquake Hazards in the Indian Subcontinent

—The Indian subcontinent is one of the most seismic prone areas of the world. The Himalayan mountains in the north, mid-oceanic ridges in the south and earthquake belts surrounding the Indian plate all show that the subcontinent has undergone extensive geological and tectonic processes in the past. The probability of the occurrence of earthquakes with magnitude 6<Mb<7 during a specified interval of time has been estimated on the basis of four probabilistic models namely Lognormal, Weibull, Gamma and Exponential distribution for the Indian subcontinent. The seismicity map has been prepared using the earthquake catalogue from the period 1963–1994, and six different zones have been identified on the basis of clustering of events. The model parameters have been estimated by the method of maximum likelihood estimates (MLE) and method of moments (MOM). A computer program package has been developed for all four models, which represents the distributions of time intervals fairly well. The logarithmic of likelihood (ln L) is estimated for testing the models and different models have been found to be plausible. The probability of different magnitude thresholds has been evaluated using the Gutenberg–Richter formula Log N = a - bM for magnitude distribution. The constants a and b have been computed for each region and found to be varying between 5.46–8.53 and 0.87–1.34, respectively.     

The relation of seismicity to lithospheric density inhomogeneities in the Russian Far East

A well-defined relationship has been identified between the belts, zones and areas of higher seismicity in the Russian Far East on the one hand and, on the other, maxima in the gradient of surface density of spherical sources that give rise to gravity anomalies (μ _z ) equivalent to quasi-isometric density inhomogeneities in the lower crust and upper mantle. The highest epicenter density is observed in the marginal parts of maxima of the μ _z parameter, these parts being interpreted as boundaries of rigid (sialic metamorphic and oceanic mafic) tectonic blocks and plates. The overwhelming majority of crustal seismicity is spatially related to uplifts of the asthenospheric layer reflected in the minima of the μ _z parameter, and is concentrated in uplifted crustal blocks. In addition to the linear type of seismicity due to deep-seated faults, the crust shows a concentrically zonal type of epicenter location associated with plume-generated central-type features (the Olekma-Stanovoi seismic zone). It is shown that seismic fields can be ranked by the depths of earthquake source zones using 3D models, μ _z (x,y,z).     

古登堡-里希特定律中的b值统计样本量研究

b值是研究地震活动的重要指标,其广泛应用于地震危险性分析和地震预测研究之中,与实际资料的完整性、样本量的大小、计算方法等因素有着重要的关系。常见的b值计算方法有最小二乘法和最大似然法,样本量的大小对这2种方法影响很大。本文利用蒙特卡罗模拟地震目录和汾渭地震带实际目录作为样本,从中抽取不同大小的样本量进行计算,研究不同样本量下这2种方法计算得到的b值与设定值或真实值之间的差别。结果表明,最小二乘法需要的最低样本量为1000,最大似然法为200;当样本量达不到要求时,计算出的b值是不可靠的;由于对样本量的要求不同,前者适用于计算区域的整体b值,而后者在研究某区域b值在时间轴上的变化方面更有优势。本研究为确定2种b值计算方法对样本量的最低要求提供了参考依据。     

Study of seismicity in the NW Himalaya and adjoining regions using IMS network

The Reviewed Event Bulletin (REB) of the International Data Center (IDC) has been used in order to investigate the seismicity of the Northwest Himalaya and its neighboring region for the time period June 1999 to March 2015 within the geographical coordinates 25–40° N latitude and 65–85° E longitude. We have used a very precisely located earthquake dataset recorded by the International Monitoring System (IMS) Network containing 7,583 events with body wave magnitudes from 2.5 to 6.3. The study area has been subdivided into six regions based on the Flinn-Engdahl (F-E) seismic and geographical regionalization scheme, which was used as the region classifications of the International Data Center catalog. The examined region includes NW India, Pakistan, Nepal, Xizang, Kashmir, and Hindukush. For each region, Magnitudes of completeness (Mc) and Gutenberg-Richter (GR) recurrence parameters (a and b values) have been estimated. The Gutenberg-Richter analysis is preceded by an overview of the seismotectonics of the study area. The obtained Mc values vary from 3.5 to 3.9. The lower value of Mc was found mainly in Xizang region whereas the higher Mc threshold is evident in Pakistan region. However, the b values vary from 1.19 to 1.48. The lowest b value is recorded in Xizang region, which is mostly related to the Main Karakoram Thrust (MKT) fault, whereas the highest b values are recorded in NW India and Kashmir regions, which are mostly related to the Main Frontal Thrust (MFT) fault. The REB for the selected period has been compared to the most renowned bulletin of global seismicity, namely that issued by the National Earthquake Information Center (NEIC) of the United States Geological Survey (USGS). A study of 4,821 events recorded by USGS in the study region indicates that about 36 % of seismic events were missed and the catalog is considered as complete for events with magnitudes ≥4.0. However, both a and b values are obviously higher than those of IMS catalog. The a and b parameters in the Gutenberg-Richter magnitude–frequency relationship have been utilized to forecast the probability of future earthquakes of different magnitudes and returned periods (recurrence intervals).     

The time of occurrence and the magnitude of the largest aftershock over India

Summary The time of occurrence and the magnitude of the largest aftershock in relation to the main shock have been studied for India and its neighbourhood based on the USCGS data during the years 1963–1971. It is found that the largest aftershock occurs within 2 hours after the main shock in about 50% of the cases and frequency of occurrencen(t) of the largest aftershocks decreases hyper-bolically with the intervalt after the main event and could be represented by a law of the formn(t)=At ^–h whereA andh are constants. The probability of occurrence of the largest aftershock within 2 hours of the main shock is found to be higher over island are regions of the world. The difference (M ₀–M ₁) of the magnitude of the largest aftershockM ₁ to that of the main shockM ₀ as a measure of aftershock activity does not show any marked regional variation over India and its neighbourhood, as was reported by Mogifor Japan. Examination of the values ofM ₁/M ₀ and the constantb in Gutenberg-Richter's frequency magnitude relationship reveals a range of variation in both; high values ofM ₁/M ₀ have been found to be associated with high values ofb in many tectonic earthquakes and thus not, restricted to reservoir associated seismic activity.     

Characteristics of seismic activity in the Western,Central and Eastern parts of the North Anatolian Fault Zone,Turkey: Temporal and spatial analysis

Characteristics of seismic activity along the North Anatolian Fault Zone are analyzed between 1970 and 2010. Magnitude completeness changes between 2.7 and 2.9 in the North Anatolian Fault Zone. The frequency-magnitude distribution of earthquakes is well represented with a b-value typically close to 1. A clear decrease in temporal distribution of b-value is observed before the strong main shocks. Correlation dimension values are relatively large and the seismic activity is more clustered at larger scales in the North Anatolian Fault Zone.