Influence of tropical cyclones on sea surface temperature seasonal cycle and ocean heat transport

Recent studies suggested that tropical cyclones (TCs) contribute significantly to the meridional oceanic heat transport by injecting heat into the subsurface through mixing. Here, we estimate the long-term oceanic impact of TCs by inserting realistic wind vortices along observed TCs tracks in a 1/2° resolution ocean general circulation model over the 1978–2007 period. Warming of TCs’ cold wakes results in a positive heat flux into the ocean (oceanic heat uptake; OHU) of ~480 TW, consistent with most recent estimates. However, ~2/5 of this OHU only compensates the heat extraction by the TCs winds during their passage. Another ~2/5 of this OHU is injected in the seasonal thermocline and hence released back to the atmosphere during the following winter. Because of zonal compensations and equatorward transport, only one-tenth of the OHU is actually exported poleward (46 TW), resulting in a marginal maximum contribution of TCs to the poleward ocean heat transport. Other usually neglected TC-related processes however impact the ocean mean state. The residual Ekman pumping associated with TCs results in a sea-level drop (rise) in the core (northern and southern flanks) of TC-basins that expand westward into the whole basin as a result of planetary wave propagation. More importantly, TC-induced mixing and air-sea fluxes cool the surface in TC-basins during summer, while the re-emergence of subsurface warm anomalies warms it during winter. This leads to a ~10 % reduction of the sea surface temperature seasonal cycle within TCs basins, which may impact the climate system.     

登陆华南热带气旋强度变化与大尺度环流的关系

应用UK再分析资料,采用合成分析方法,对比分析了登陆华南的登陆前迅速增强的TC（Rapid Intensifying TC,简称RITC）和迅速减弱的TC（Rapid FillingTC,简称RFTC）登陆前24h的大尺度环流背景特征。结果表明：从外流、入流强度和范围上看,RITC的低空入流和高空外流均明显强于RFTC,两类TC高空外流强度的差异比低空入流明显,RITC的次级环流径向范围大;从外流垂直伸展高度上看,RITC的平均外流主要集中在500hPa以上,而RFFC的平均外流比较分散,向下伸展到850hPa;从高空流场配置看,RITC上空除西北象限外均有较强外流,而RVrC仅在东北象限有较强外流,相应的RITC和RVrC的高空辐散在范围和强度上均有明显的差异,其中RITC的高空辐散明显强于RFTC;强烈的西南季风水汽输送是登陆华南的TC登陆前突然加强的先兆条件,RITC的对流活动明显比RFTc活跃;RITC的纬向风垂直切变比RFTC小,有利于RITC的强度增强。     

Characteristics of intensity change in tropical cyclones affecting the South China Sea from 1977 to 2007

The best track data of tropical cyclones (TCs) provided by Regional Specialized Meteorological Center (RSMC) Tokyo for the South China Sea (SCS) from 1977 to 2007 are employed to study the spatiotemporal variations (for a period of 12 hours) and the rapid (slow) intensification (RI/SI) of TCs with different intensity. The main results are as follows. (1) Over this period, the tropical storms (TSs) and severe tropical storms (STSs) mostly intensify or are steady while the typhoons (TYs) mostly weaken. The stronger a TC is initially, the more observation of its intensification and the less its variability will be; the more observation of its weakening is, the larger its variability will be. (2) The TC intensifies the fastest at 0000 UTC while weakening the fastest at 1200 UTC. (3) In the intensifying state, TSs, STSs, and TYs are mainly active in the northeastern, central-eastern, and central SCS respectively. The weakening cases mainly distribute over waters east off Hainan Island and Vietnam and west off the Philippines. Some cases of TSs and STSs weaken over the central SCS. (4) The RI cases form farther south in contrast to the SI cases. The RI cases are observed in regions where there are weaker vertical shear and easterly components at 200 hPa. The RI cases also have stronger mid-and lower-level warm-core structure and smaller radii of 15.4 m/s winds. The SI cases have slightly higher SST.     

Performances of seven datasets in presenting the upper ocean heat content in the South China Sea

In this study, the upper ocean heat content (OHC) variations in the South China Sea (SCS) during 1993- 2006 were investigated by examining ocean temperatures in seven datasets, including World Ocean Atlas 2009 (WOA09) (climatology), Ishii datasets, Ocean General Circulation Model for the Earth Simulator (OFES), Simple Ocean Data Assimilation system (SODA), Global Ocean Data Assimilation System (GODAS), China Oceanic ReAnalysis system (CORA), and an ocean reanalysis dataset for the joining area of Asia and Indian-Pacific Ocean (AIPO1.0). Among these datasets, two were independent of any numerical model, four relied on data assimilation, and one was generated without any data assimilation. The annual cycles revealed by the seven datasets were similar, but the interannual variations were different. Vertical structures of temperatures along the 18°N, 12.75°N, and 120°E sections were compared with data collected during open cruises in 1998 and 2005-08. The results indicated that Ishii, OFES, CORA, and AIPO1.0 were more consistent with the observations. Through systematic comparisons, we found that each dataset had its own shortcomings and advantages in presenting the upper OHC in the SCS.     

Global ocean circulation and equator-pole heat transport as a function of ocean GCM resolution

To determine whether resolution of smaller scales is necessary to simulate large-scale ocean climate correctly, I examine results from a global ocean GCM run with different horizontal grid spacings. The horizontal grid spacings span a range from coarse resolutions traditionally used in climate modeling to nearly the highest resolution attained with today's computers. The experiments include four cases employing 4°, 2°, 1° and 1/2° spacing in latitude and longitude, which were run with minimal differences among them, i.e., in a controlled experiment. Two additional cases, 1/2° spacing with a more scale-selective sub-gridscale mixing of heat and momentum, and approximate 1/2° spacing, are also included. The 1/2° run resolves most of the observed mesoscale eddy energy in the ocean. Artificial constraints on the model tend to minimize differences among the different resolution cases. Nevertheless, the simulations show significant changes as resolution increases. These changes generally but not always bring the model into better agreement with observations. Differences are typically more noticeable when comparing the 4° and 2° runs than when comparing the 2° and 1° runs or the 1° and 1/2° runs. A reasonable conclusion to draw for current studies with coupled ocean-atmosphere GCMs is that the ocean grid spacing could be set to about 1° to accrue the benefits of enhanced resolution without paying an excessively steep price in computer-time cost. The model's poleward heat transport at 1/2° grid spacing peaks at about 1 × 10¹⁵ W in the Northern Hemisphere and 0.5 × 10¹⁵ W in the Southern Hemisphere. These values are significantly below observations, a problem typical of ocean GCMs even when they are less constrained than in the present study. This present problem is alleviated somewhat in the 1/2° run. In this case, however, the eddies resolved by the model generally act to counter rather than to reinforce the heat transport of the mean flow. Improved heat transport may result less from enhanced resolution than from other changes made in this version of the model, such as more accurate wind forcing.     

2015年西北太平洋和南海台风活动特征及主要预报技术难点

利用常规气象观测资料、1949—2015年中国气象局台风最佳路径资料、2015年中日美台风实时定位资料、1°×1°的NOAA/OISST月平均海温资料和NCEP/FNL再分析资料以及05°×05°的NCEP RTG实时海温等资料,对2015年西北太平洋和南海台风活动的主要特征、厄尔尼诺对该年台风整体活动的影响、1508号台风“鲸鱼”实时定位、1522号台风“彩虹”近海急剧加强预报、1510号台风“莲花”和1521号台风“杜鹃”长时效路径预报以及地面观测系统存在的薄弱环节等主要业务技术难点和问题进行了初步分析。结果表明： 1）2015年台风活动活跃期不明显,呈现生成总数与多年平均持平、南海台风偏少、生成源地偏东、强度强、超强台风异常偏多、登陆个数及频次偏少等特征。2）2015年台风主要活动特征与极强厄尔尼诺事件关系密切,但厄尔尼诺对台风的影响不是单一的,其影响物理机制尚待深入研究。3）台风“鲸鱼”实时业务定位的精度直接影响其登陆预报的精度,综合应用多源观测资料、规范台风定位业务流程,有利于台风定位和路径预报精度的提高。4）台风快速增强和路径长时效预报仍是台风业务的主要技术瓶颈,高分辨率台风-海-气-浪耦合模式、集合预报及相关动力统计模式和天气物理概念模型的研发改进将是未来的主要解决技术途径。5）中国地面观测系统尚不具备对极端台风的监测能力,在沿海受台风影响的重点区域（包括海岛）布设先进的重型机械式强风仪,将有助于提高对极端台风事件的监测能力。     

Interocean circulation and heat and freshwater budgets of the South China Sea based on a numerical model

The South China Sea (SCS) interocean circulation and its associated heat and freshwater budgets are examined using the results of a variable-grid global ocean model. The ocean model has a 1/6° resolution in the SCS and its adjacent oceans. The model results from 1982 to 2003 show that the western Pacific waters enter the SCS through the Luzon Strait with an annual mean volume transport of 4.80 Sv, of which 1.71 Sv returns to the western Pacific through the Taiwan Strait and East China Sea and 3.09 Sv flows toward the Indian Ocean. The heat in the western Pacific is transported to the SCS with a rate of 0.373 PW (relative to a reference temperature 3.72 °C), while the total heat transport through the outflow straits is 0.432 PW. The net heat transport out of the SCS is thus 0.059 PW, which is balanced by a mean net downward heat flux of 17 W/m² across the SCS air–sea interface. Therefore, the interocean circulation acts as an “air conditioner”, cooling the SCS and its overlaying atmosphere. The SCS contributes a heat transport of 0.279 PW to the Indian Ocean, of which 0.240 PW is from the Pacific Ocean through the Luzon Strait and 0.039 PW is from the SCS interior gained from the air–sea exchange. The Luzon Strait salt transport is greater than the total salt transport leaving the SCS by 3.97 Gg/s, implying a mean freshwater flux of 0.112 Sv (or 3.54 × 10¹² m³/year) from the land discharge and P − E (precipitation minus evaporation). The total annual land discharge to the SCS is estimated to be 1.60 × 10¹² m³/year, the total annual P − E over the SCS is thus 1.94 × 10¹² m³/year, equivalent to a mean P − E of 0.55 m/year. The SCS freshwater contribution to the Indian Ocean is 0.096 Sv. The pattern of the SCS interocean circulation in winter differs greatly from that in summer. The SCS branch of the Pacific-to-Indian Ocean throughflow exists in winter, but not in summer. In winter this branching flow starts at the Luzon Strait and extends to the Karimata Strait. In summer the interocean circulation is featured by a north-northeastward current starting at the Karimata Strait and extending to the Taiwan and Luzon Straits, and a subsurface inflow from the Luzon Strait that upwells into the surface layer in the SCS interior to supply the outward transports.     

阿拉伯海热带气旋生成特征分析

利用印度气象局（India Meteorological Department,IMD）、国际气候管理最佳路径档案库（International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship,IBTrACS）提供的1982—2020年阿拉伯海热带气旋路径资料,美国国家环境预报中心（National Centers for Environmental Prediction,NCEP）再分析资料,对近39 a阿拉伯海热带气旋源地和路径特征、活跃区域、频数及气旋累积能量（accumulated cyclone energy,ACE）指数的季节特征和年际变化特征进行分析,并结合环境因素,说明其物理成因。结果表明：阿拉伯海热带气旋多发于10°~25°N,65°~75°E海域,5—6月、9—12月发生频数较高且强度较强,1—4月、7—8月发生频数较低且气旋近中心最大风速均小于35 kn;频数的季节变化主要受控于垂直风切变要素;阿拉伯海热带气旋发生频数和ACE近年有上升趋势,年际变化主要受控于海面温度（sea surface temperature,SST）和850 hPa相对湿度要素。     

Effects of Amazon basin deforestation on regional atmospheric circulation and water vapor transport towards tropical South America

The water cycle over the Amazon basin is a regulatory mechanism for regional and global climate. The atmospheric moisture evaporated from this basin represents an important source of humidity for itself and for other remote regions. The deforestation rates that this basin has experienced in the past decades have implications for regional atmospheric circulation and water vapor transport. In this study, we analyzed the changes in atmospheric moisture transport towards tropical South America during the period 1961–2010, according to two deforestation scenarios of the Amazon defined by Alves et al. (Theor Appl Climatol 100(3-4):337–350, 2017). These scenarios consider deforested areas of approximately 28% and 38% of the Amazon basin, respectively. The Dynamic Recycling Model is used to track the transport of water vapor from different sources in tropical South America and the surrounding oceans. Our results indicate that under deforestation scenarios in the Amazon basin, continental sources reduce their contributions to northern South America at an annual scale by an average of between 40 and 43% with respect to the baseline state. Our analyses suggest that these changes may be related to alterations in the regional Hadley and Walker cells. Amazon deforestation also induces a strengthening of the cross-equatorial flow that transports atmospheric moisture from the Tropical North Atlantic and the Caribbean Sea to tropical South America during the austral summer. A weakening of the cross-equatorial flow is observed during the boreal summer, reducing moisture transport from the Amazon to latitudes further north. These changes alter the patterns of precipitable water contributions to tropical South America from both continental and oceanic sources. Finally, we observed that deforestation over the Amazon basin increases the frequency of occurrence of longer dry seasons in the central-southern Amazon (by between 29 and 57%), depending on the deforestation scenario considered, as previous studies suggest.     

A Note on the South China Sea Shallow Interocean Circulation

1. IntroductionThe South China Sea (SCS) has many channelsconnecting with the outer oceans/seas (Fig. 1). Thewidest and deepest channel is the Luzón Strait, whichis the main entrance to the SCS from the WesternPacific Ocean, having a sill depth of about 2500 m.On the north, the Taiwan Strait connects with theEast China Sea, with a sill depth of about 70 m. Inthe vicinity of Mindoro Island, there are a numberof channels connecting the SCS with the Sulu Sea.The main channel is the M…     

西北太平洋和南海不同时段生成热带气旋频数及其水汽条件的分类

对1961—2010年南海和西北太平洋不同时段生成热带气旋(tropical cyclone,TC)频数的时空分布及水汽条件对其产生的影响进行了分类研究。结果表明,可以将TC活动划分为活跃期(6—11月)和平静期(上年12—当年5月)两个时段。在TC活跃期和平静期,南海和西北太平洋上TC频数的EOF第一特征向量都表现为一致的增加或减少。活跃期EOF的第二特征向量表现为南海与西北太平洋中西部的TC频数存在相反的变化趋势,平静期EOF的第二特征向量则表现为130°E以西海域的TC频数与130~150°E范围内生成热带气旋存在相反的变化趋势。活跃期和平静期西北太平洋TC的生成频数与水汽通量散度均存在显著的负相关;而在活跃期南海TC频数与水汽通量散度仅在南海中北部有弱的负相关,在平静期南海东部到菲律宾附近海域有显著的负相关。因此,水汽条件的影响使得在活跃期南海和西北太平洋TC高频年中,南海北部和西北太平洋中东部TC频数明显偏多,而平静期高频年中,南海东部以及西北太平洋中西部TC频数明显偏多。     

Distribution of convection associated with tropical cyclones making landfall along the South China coast

Summary This study examines the convection distribution associated with 18 TCs that made landfall along the South China coast during 1995 and 2005. Cloud-top temperatures from high-resolution satellite imageries of the Geosynchronous Meteorological Satellite 5 are used as proxy of strong convection. It is found that convection tends to be enhanced on the western side of the TC as it makes landfall in 10 of the cases, in agreement with the conclusion of some previous studies. Four cases have stronger convection on the eastern side. This “deviation” from the general rule appears to be related to the TCs being more slow-moving or their interaction of the TC with another land surface prior to its making landfall along the South China coast. For the remaining cases in which no significant asymmetries in convection can be identified, the vertical wind shear appears to enhance convection on the east side.     

Variation of the monsoon trough intensity in the South China Sea and western North Pacific ocean and its relationship to tropical cyclone activities

Using the daily average of the NCEP/DOE AMIP-II reanalysis data from 1979 to 2005 and the characteristics of monsoon troughs in the western North Pacific,we established an intensity index and a location index to describe the activity of the monsoon troughs in three different regions and their impacts on tropical cyclones generated therein(MTTCs).The behavior of the monsoon troughs was analyzed.The following conclusions are obtained:(1)The established monsoon trough intensity index has a positive correlation to the location index,indicating that stronger monsoon trough intensity corresponds to more northward location.(2)Monsoon trough intensity exhibits significant interannual variation,with obvious periods of 4–5 years prior to 1994 and 2–3 years afterwards.(3)The affecting factors on monsoon trough intensity are different with areas.The preceding SST anomaly results in anomalous atmospheric circulation, leading to the anomaly of monsoon trough intensity in different areas.(4)The frequency of cyclogenesis and location anomalies of the MTTC are closely related to the intensity and location of the monsoon trough. Most of the anomalously less MTTC years coincide with the years with a weak general monsoon trough and weak regional monsoon troughs.The anomalously more MTTC years are associated with both a strong general monsoon trough and a weak general monsoon trough combined with a strong one over the South China Sea,though with a larger probability for the latter.(5)The interseasonal variation of the intensity of monsoon troughs provides favorable conditions for TC generation and development.The monsoon trough is in the active periods of both quasi-biweekly 10 to 20 day and 30 to 60 day oscillations,which is favorable for MTTC occurrence.     

Contribution of south China Sea tropical cyclones to an increase in southern China summer rainfall around 1993

The increase in southern China summer rainfall around 1993 was accompanied by an increase in tropical cyclones that formed in the South China Sea. This study documents the connection of these two features. Our analysis shows that the contribution of tropical cyclones that formed in the South China Sea to southern China summer rainfall experienced a significant increase around 1993, in particular, along the coast and in the heavy rain category. The number of tropical cyclones that formed in the western North Pacific and entered the South China Sea decreased, and their contribution to summer rainfall was reduced in eastern part of southern China (but statistically insignificant). The increase in tropical cyclone-induced rainfall contributed up to ～30% of the total rainfall increase along the coastal regions. The increase of tropical cyclones in the South China Sea appears to be related to an increase in local sea surface temperature.