Relationships Among Magnetic Clouds, CMES, and Geomagnetic Storms

During solar cycle 23, 82 interplanetary magnetic clouds (MCs) were identified by the Magnetic Field Investigation (MFI) team using Wind (1995 – 2003) solar wind plasma and magnetic field data from solar minimum through the maximum of cycle 23. The average occurrence rate is 9.5 MCs per year for the overall period. It is found that some of the anomalies in the frequency of occurrence were during the early part of solar cycle 23: (i) only four MCs were observed in 1999, and (ii) an unusually large number of MCs (17 events) were observed in 1997, just after solar minimum. We also discuss the relationship between MCs, coronal mass ejections (CMEs), and geomagnetic storms. During the period 1996 – 2003, almost 8000 CMEs were observed by SOHO-LASCO. The occurrence frequency of MCs appears to be related neither to the occurrence of CMEs as observed by SOHO LASCO nor to the sunspot number. When we included “magnetic cloud-like structures” (MCLs, defined by Lepping, Wu, and Berdichevsky, 2005), we found that the occurrence of the joint set (MCs + MCLs) is correlated with both sunspot number and the occurrence rate of CMEs. The average duration of the MCL structures is ~40% shorter than that of the MCs. The MCs are typically more geoeffective than the MCLs, because the average southward field component is generally stronger and longer lasting in MCs than in MCLs. In addition, most severe storms caused by MCs/MCLs with Dst _min≤ −100 nT occurred in the active solar period.     

Solar Cycle Signal in Geomagnetic Activity and Climate

Historical geomagnetic and climate records were analyzed to study long-term trends and relationships with solar activity. Wavelet technique and recurrence plot analysis are applied to the data to find their coherence and similarities at different times and time-scales. It is shown that the solar cycle signal is more pronounced in climatic data during the last 60 years.     

High-Speed Solar Wind Streams and Geomagnetic Storms During Solar Cycle 24

An updated catalog is created of 303 well-defined high-speed solar wind streams that occurred in the time period 2009?–?2016. These streams are identified from solar and interplanetary measurements obtained from the OMNIWeb database as well as from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) database. This time interval covers the deep minimum observed between the last two Solar Cycles 23 and 24, as well as the ascending, the maximum, and part of the descending phases of the current Solar Cycle 24. The main properties of solar-wind high-speed streams, such as their maximum velocity, their duration, and their possible sources are analyzed in detail. We discuss the relative importance of all those parameters of high-speed solar wind streams and especially of their sources in terms of the different phases of the current cycle. We carry out a comparison between the characteristic parameters of high-speed solar wind streams in the present solar cycle with those of previous solar cycles to understand the dependence of their long-term variation on the cycle phase. Moreover, the present study investigates the varied phenomenology related to the magnetic interactions between these streams and the Earth’s magnetosphere. These interactions can initiate geomagnetic disturbances resulting in geomagnetic storms at Earth that may have impact on technology and endanger human activity and health.     

Intermittency of the Solar Magnetic Field and Solar Magnetic Activity Cycle

Small-scale solar magnetic fields demonstrate features of fractal intermittent behavior, which requires quantification. For this purpose we investigate how the observational estimate of the solar magnetic flux density \(B\) depends on resolution \(D\) in order to obtain the scaling \(\ln B_{D} = - k \ln D +a\) in a reasonably wide range. The quantity \(k\) demonstrates cyclic variations typical of a solar activity cycle. In addition, \(k\) depends on the magnetic flux density, i.e. the ratio of the magnetic flux to the area over which the flux is calculated, at a given instant. The quantity \(a\) demonstrates some cyclic variation, but it is much weaker than in the case of \(k\). The scaling obtained generalizes previous scalings found for the particular cycle phases. The scaling is typical of fractal structures. In our opinion, the results obtained trace small-scale action in the solar convective zone and its coexistence with the conventional large-scale solar dynamo based on differential rotation and mirror-asymmetric convection.     

Prediction of Solar Cycle 24 Using Geomagnetic Precursors: Validation and Update

In the previous study (Dabas et al. in Solar Phys. 250, 171, 2008), to predict the maximum sunspot number of the current solar cycle 24 based on the geomagnetic activity of the preceding sunspot minimum, the Ap index was used which is available from the last six to seven solar cycles. Since a longer series of the aa index is available for more than the last 10 – 12 cycles, the present study utilizes aa to validate the earlier prediction. Based on the same methodology, the disturbance index (DI), which is the 12-month moving average of the number of disturbed days (aa≥50), is computed at thirteen selected times (called variate blocks 1,2,…,13; each of them in six-month duration) during the declining portion of the ongoing sunspot cycle. Then its correlation with the maximum sunspot number of the following cycle is evaluated. As in the case of Ap, variate block 9, which occurs exactly 48 months after the current cycle maximum, gives the best correlation (R=0.96) with a minimum standard error of estimation (SEE) of ± 9. As applied to cycle 24, the aa index as precursor yields the maximum sunspot number of about 120±16 (the 90% prediction interval), which is within the 90% prediction interval of the earlier prediction (124±23 using Ap). Furthermore, the same method is applied to an expanded range of cycles 11 – 23, and once again variate block 9 gives the best correlation (R=0.95) with a minimum SEE of ± 13. The relation yields the modified maximum amplitude for cycle 24 of about 131±20, which is also close to our earlier prediction and is likely to occur at about 43±4 months after its minimum (December 2008), probably in July 2012 (± 4 months).     

Predicting Solar Cycle 24 Using a Geomagnetic Precursor Pair

We describe using Ap and F_10.7 as a geomagnetic-precursor pair to predict the amplitude of Solar Cycle 24. The precursor is created by using F_10.7 to remove the direct solar-activity component of Ap. Four peaks are seen in the precursor function during the decline of Solar Cycle 23. A recurrence index that is generated by a local correlation of Ap is then used to determine which peak is the correct precursor. The earliest peak is the most prominent but coincides with high levels of non-recurrent solar activity associated with the intense solar activity of October and November 2003. The second and third peaks coincide with some recurrent activity on the Sun and show that a weak cycle precursor closely following a period of strong solar activity may be difficult to resolve. A fourth peak, which appears in early 2008 and has recurrent activity similar to precursors of earlier solar cycles, appears to be the “true” precursor peak for Solar Cycle 24 and predicts the smallest amplitude for Solar Cycle 24. To determine the timing of peak activity it is noted that the average time between the precursor peak and the following maximum is ≈?6.4 years. Hence, Solar Cycle 24 would peak during 2014. Several effects contribute to the smaller prediction when compared with other geomagnetic-precursor predictions. During Solar Cycle 23 the correlation between sunspot number and F_10.7 shows that F_10.7 is higher than the equivalent sunspot number over most of the cycle, implying that the sunspot number underestimates the solar-activity component described by F_10.7. During 2003 the correlation between aa and Ap shows that aa is 10 % higher than the value predicted from Ap, leading to an overestimate of the aa precursor for that year. However, the most important difference is the lack of recurrent activity in the first three peaks and the presence of significant recurrent activity in the fourth. While the prediction is for an amplitude of Solar Cycle 24 of 65±20 in smoothed sunspot number, a below-average amplitude for Solar Cycle 24, with maximum at 2014.5±0.5, we conclude that Solar Cycle 24 will be no stronger than average and could be much weaker than average.     

Solar Wind Quasi-invariant for Slow and Fast Magnetic Clouds

The solar wind quasi-invariant (QI) has been defined by Osherovich, Fainberg, and Stone (Geophys. Res. Lett. 26, 2597, 1999) as the ratio of magnetic energy density and the energy density of the solar wind flow. In the regular solar wind QI is a rather small number, since the energy of the flow is almost two orders of magnitude greater than the magnetic energy. However, in magnetic clouds, QI is the order of unity (less than 1) and thus magnetic clouds can be viewed as a great anomaly in comparison with its value in the background solar wind. We study the duration, extent, and amplitude of this anomaly for two groups of isolated magnetic clouds: slow clouds (360<v<450 km s⁻¹) and fast clouds (450≤v<720 km s⁻¹). By applying the technique of superposition of epochs to 12 slow and 12 fast clouds from the catalog of Richardson and Cane (Solar Phys. 264, 189, 2010), we create an average slow cloud and an average fast cloud observed at 1 AU. From our analysis of these average clouds, we obtain cloud boundaries in both time and space as well as differences in QI amplitude and other parameters characterizing the solar wind state. Interplanetary magnetic clouds are known to cause major magnetic storms at the Earth, especially those clouds which travel from the sun to the Earth at high speeds. Characterizing each magnetic cloud by its QI value and extent may help in understanding the role of those disturbances in producing geomagnetic activity.     

Solar Activity Cycle in Solar-wind Sources and Flows

Experiments based on multi-source radio occultation measurements of the circumsolar plasma at R∼4.0−70R _S were carried out during 1997 – 2008 to locate the inner boundary of the solar-wind transonic transition region, R _in. The data obtained were used to correlate the solar-wind stream structure and magnetic fields on the source surface (R=2.5R _S) in the solar corona. The method of the investigation is based on the analysis of the dependence R _in=F(|B _R|) in the correlation diagrams, where R _in is the inner boundary of the solar-wind transition region and |B _R| is the intensity of the magnetic field at the source surface. On such diagrams, the solar wind is resolved into discrete branches, streams of different types. The analysis of the stream types using a continuous series of data from 1997 to 2008 allowed us to propose a physical criterion for delimiting the epochs in the current activity cycle.     

Relating 27-Day Averages of Solar,Interplanetary Medium Parameters,and Geomagnetic Activity Proxies in Solar Cycle 24

Solar Physics - During solar minimum, the Sun is relatively inactive with few sunspots observed on the solar surface. Consequently, we observe a smaller number of highly energetic events such as...     

Modulation of the Solar Magnetic Cycle

The modulation model of the solar magnetic cycle for the time interval from 1650 to 1996 A.D. describes an harmonic oscillator with a basic (22.13 ± 0.05)-yr period, which is subjected to amplitude and phase variations that can be represented by a sum of trigonometric series. The simulated sunspot data explain 97.9% of cycle peak height variance and the residual standard deviation is 8.6 mean annual sunspots. A peak height of 139 for cycle 23 occurring in 2001 is predicted, whereas cycle 24 would have a maximum around 132 in 2014. Simulation of the sunspot numbers from 1000 until 2400 A.D. shows that the model recreates recurring minima (Maunder and Spörer Minimum). The prediction also expects a high level of amplitude modulation in the interval 1950–2010 with a rapid decrease afterwards. A greatly reduced cycle activity is reproduced by the simulation from about 2065 to 2100 A.D. No direct explanation of the long-term periodicities of the model can be advanced. The high-frequency contribution of the phase modulation, which accounts for the skewness of the solar cycle, shows coincidences with the orbital periods of Jupiter and Saturn, but no physical basis for the matching periodicities can be conceived.     

Solar Cycle Phase Dependence of Supergranular Fractal Dimension

We study the complexity of supergranular cells using the intensity patterns obtained from the Kodaikanal Solar Observatory during the 23rd solar cycle. Our data consists of visually identified supergranular cells, from which a fractal dimension D for supergranulation is obtained according to the relation P?∝?A ^D/2, where A is the area and P is the perimeter of the supergranular cells. We find a difference in the fractal dimension between active and quiet region cells in the ascending phase, during the peak and in the descending phase which is conjectured to be due to the magnetic activity level.     

Solar and Heliospheric Causes of Geomagnetic Perturbations during the Growth Phase of Solar Cycle 23

A database is compiled for the study of solar and heliospheric causes of geomagnetic perturbations with the daily average index A > 20 that were observed in the period 1997–2000. The number of such events (more than 200) progressively increased and fluctuated as the current solar cycle developed. It is established that geomagnetic storms are generated by dynamical processes and structures near the center of the solar disk in a zone of several tens of degrees, and these processes are responsible for the appearance in the Earth's region, within several tens of hours, of quasistationary and transient solar wind streams with a sufficiently strong southward component of the heliospheric magnetic field. These streams lasted more than a few hours. The following structures can serve as morphological indicators for the prediction of the appearance of such streams: (1) active and disappearing filaments derived from synoptic -maps of the Sun, (2) solar flares, (3) coronal holes and evolving active regions, and (4) the heliospheric current sheet. The geometry of coronal mass ejections needs further observational study.     

Forbush Decreases Associated with Western Solar Sources and Geomagnetic Storms: A Study on Precursors

As suggested in many studies the pre-increases or pre-decreases of the cosmic ray intensity (known as precursors), which usually precede a Forbush decrease, could serve as a useful tool for studying space weather effects. The events in this study were chosen based on two criteria. Firstly, the heliolongitude of the solar flare associated with each cosmic ray intensity decrease was in the 50°?–70°W sector and, secondly, the values of the geomagnetic activity index, Kp _max, were ≥?5. Twenty five events were selected from 1967 to 2006. We have used data on solar flares, solar wind speed, geomagnetic indices (Kp and Dst), and interplanetary magnetic field in our detailed analysis. The asymptotic longitudinal cosmic ray distribution diagrams were plotted using the “Ring of Stations” method for all the events. The results reveal clear signs of precursors in 60 % of selected events.     

Multiwavelength Study on Solar and Interplanetary Origins of the Strongest Geomagnetic Storm of Solar Cycle 23

We study the solar sources of an intense geomagnetic storm of solar cycle 23 that occurred on 20 November 2003, based on ground- and space-based multiwavelength observations. The coronal mass ejections (CMEs) responsible for the above geomagnetic storm originated from the super-active region NOAA 10501. We investigate the H?? observations of the flare events made with a 15 cm solar tower telescope at ARIES, Nainital, India. The propagation characteristics of the CMEs have been derived from the three-dimensional images of the solar wind (i.e., density and speed) obtained from the interplanetary scintillation data, supplemented with other ground- and space-based measurements. The TRACE, SXI and H?? observations revealed two successive ejections (of speeds ???350 and ???100 km?s^?1), originating from the same filament channel, which were associated with two high speed CMEs (???1223 and ???1660 km?s^?1, respectively). These two ejections generated propagating fast shock waves (i.e., fast-drifting type II radio bursts) in the corona. The interaction of these CMEs along the Sun?CEarth line has led to the severity of the storm. According to our investigation, the interplanetary medium consisted of two merging magnetic clouds (MCs) that preserved their identity during their propagation. These magnetic clouds made the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) southward for a long time, which reconnected with the geomagnetic field, resulting the super-storm (Dst _peak=?472 nT) on the Earth.     

Magnetic Cycle Dependence of the Cosmic-Ray Diurnal Anisotropy

The two components of the solar diurnal variation observed with two detectors characterized by linearly independent coupling functions have been used to estimate the free space anisotropy vector during the period 1968–1995 using the least-squares method (LSM). The values of R_cshow 20-year magnetic cycle with the lowest values at solar activity minima for positive polarity (qA>0). A good correlation is obtained between R_cand the IMF magnitude. The amplitude of the radial anisotropy (A_R) shows 20-year magnetic cycle with the highest values around solar activity minima for qA>0 (1975–1976 and 1995), whereas that of the east-west (A) is minimum. This results in shifting the anisotropy vector to the earliest hours. The amplitude of the anisotropy is high around solar maxima and low around solar minima. It is also enhanced during the declining phase of solar activity (1971, 1984–1985, and 1991). Our results of the anisotropy have been used to calculate the cosmic-ray radial and transverse gradients. The value of the radial gradient exhibits a magnetic polarity dependence as well, with larger value during qA<0 than during qA>0.     

太阳活动22周以来的冕洞和地磁指数

本文对２２太阳活动用以来的中低纬冕洞和地磁指数Ａｐ进行了统计。对以月、季、年及２２周以来不同时段冕洞和地磁指数（Ｐｌａｎｅｔａｒｙ的Ａ指教）的时段合成图进行了分析。     

An Approach to the Relationship Between Magnetic Clouds and the Recovery Phase of Geomagnetic Storms

Using an elliptical cross-section model for the study of the magnetic topology of magnetic clouds (MCs) in the interplanetary medium, we develop an analytical approach to their relationship with geomagnetic storms. Assuming an axially symmetric ring current and once we have obtained the disturbances produced in its current density due to the passage of a MC through it (whose axis has a latitude θ, a longitude φ, and its cross-section has an orientation ζ), then we determine the decrease in the value of the geomagnetic field at the Earth's equator, i.e., the D _st index. The D _st model presented allows us to estimate the physical parameters which characterize the symmetric ring current during the recovery phase of the storm time. The theoretical and experimental D _st indexes are compared for four intense geomagnetic storms (D _st<−100 nT), all of them associated with MCs. As seen in the figures presented, the fits are good for every storm. In view of these results we conclude that the effects of a MC over the symmetric ring current can explain the main profile of the recovery phase of a geomagnetic storm.     

Interplanetary Magnetic Flux Ropes as Agents Connecting Solar Eruptions and Geomagnetic Activities

We investigate the solar wind structure for 11 cases that were selected for the campaign study promoted by the International Study of Earth-affecting Solar Transients (ISEST) MiniMax24 Working Group 4. We can identify clear flux rope signatures in nine cases. The geometries of the nine interplanetary magnetic flux ropes (IFRs) are examined with a model-fitting analysis with cylindrical and toroidal force-free flux rope models. For seven cases in which magnetic fields in the solar source regions were observed, we compare the IFR geometries with magnetic structures in their solar source regions. As a result, we can confirm the coincidence between the IFR orientation and the orientation of the magnetic polarity inversion line (PIL) for six cases, as well as the so-called helicity rule as regards the handedness of the magnetic chirality of the IFR, depending on which hemisphere of the Sun the IFR originated from, the northern or southern hemisphere; namely, the IFR has right-handed (left-handed) magnetic chirality when it is formed in the southern (northern) hemisphere of the Sun. The relationship between the orientation of IFRs and PILs can be taken as evidence that the flux rope structure created in the corona is in most cases carried through interplanetary space with its orientation maintained. In order to predict magnetic field variations on Earth from observations of solar eruptions, further studies are needed about the propagation of IFRs because magnetic fields observed at Earth significantly change depending on which part of the IFR hits the Earth.