A Curious History of Sunspot Penumbrae

Daily records of sunspot group areas compiled by the Royal Observatory, Greenwich, from May of 1874 through 1976 indicate a curious history for the penumbral areas of the smaller sunspot groups. On average, the ratio of penumbral area to umbral area in a sunspot group increases from 5 to 6 as the total sunspot group area increases from 100 to 2000 μHem (a μHem is 10^?6 the area of a solar hemisphere). This relationship does not vary substantially with sunspot group latitude or with the phase of the sunspot cycle. However, for the sunspot groups with total areas <?100 μHem, this ratio changes dramatically and systematically through this historical record. The ratio for these smallest sunspots is near 5.5 from 1874 to 1900. After a rapid rise to more than 7 in 1905, it drops smoothly to less than 3 by 1930 and then rises smoothly back to more than 7 in 1961. It then returns to near 5.5 from 1965 to 1976. The smooth variation from 1905 to 1961 shows no indication of any step-like changes that might be attributed to changes in equipment or personnel. The overall level of solar activity was increasing monotonically during this time period when the penumbra-to-umbra area ratio dropped to less than half its peak value and then returned. If this history can be confirmed by other observations (e.g. Mt. Wilson or Kodaikanal), it may impact our understanding of penumbra formation, our dynamo models, and our estimates of historical changes in the solar irradiance.     

A Study of the Hinode Observations of the Bipolar Moving Magnetic Features in Sunspot Penumbrae

By using the monochromatic images and magnetograms obtained with the satellite Hinode, 35 pairs of bipolar moving magnetic features (MMFs) in sunspot penumbrae are studied in the following three aspects: the morphological characteristics, velocities of motion and responses in low atmospheric layers. Then the following conclusions are drawn. (1) The bipolar MMFs appear in pairs of positive and negative polarities, are located in the midst of the approximately vertical magnetic fields in spot penumbrae, and move toward the outer boundaries of penumbrae. This indirectly justifies that the bipolar MMFs originate in the horizontal magnetic fields of penumbrae. In the time intervals of 2-8 hours and at the same positions, there appear the bipolar MMFs with similar morphologial characteristics and velocities of motion. This povides an evidence which supports the model of magnetic lines in the shape of sea serpent. (2) In the process of motion of bipolar MMFs there may appear brightenings in the photospere and chromosphere, and this implies that the middle and low layers of solar atmosphere are heated by the bipolar MMFs. (3) The sites of occurrence of bipolar MMFs and the distribution of penumbral magnetic field agree with the structural characteristics of uncombed sunspot penumbrae.     

Physical Properties of Wave Motion in Inclined Magnetic Fields within Sunspot Penumbrae

At the surface of the Sun, acoustic waves appear to be affected by the presence of strong magnetic fields in active regions. We explore the possibility that the inclined magnetic field in sunspot penumbrae may convert primarily vertically-propagating acoustic waves into elliptical motion. We use helioseismic holography to measure the modulus and phase of the correlation between incoming acoustic waves and the local surface motion within two sunspots. These correlations are modeled by assuming the surface motion to be elliptical, and we explore the properties of the elliptical motion on the magnetic-field inclination. We also demonstrate that the phase shift of the outward-propagating waves is opposite to the phase shift of the inward-propagating waves in stronger, more vertical fields, but similar to the inward phase shifts in weaker, more-inclined fields.     

Group Sunspot Numbers: Sunspot Cycle Characteristics

We examine the `Group' sunspot numbers constructed by Hoyt and Schatten to determine their utility in characterizing the solar activity cycle. We compare smoothed monthly Group sunspot numbers to Zürich (International) sunspot numbers, 10.7-cm radio flux, and total sunspot area. We find that the Zürich numbers follow the 10.7-cm radio flux and total sunspot area measurements only slightly better than the Group numbers. We examine several significant characteristics of the sunspot cycle using both Group numbers and Zürich numbers. We find that the `Waldmeier Effect' – the anti-correlation between cycle amplitude and the elapsed time between minimum and maximum of a cycle – is much more apparent in the Zürich numbers. The `Amplitude–Period Effect' – the anti-correlation between cycle amplitude and the length of the previous cycle from minimum to minimum – is also much more apparent in the Zürich numbers. The `Amplitude–Minimum Effect' – the correlation between cycle amplitude and the activity level at the previous (onset) minimum is equally apparent in both the Zürich numbers and the Group numbers. The `Even–Odd Effect' – in which odd-numbered cycles are larger than their even-numbered precursors – is somewhat stronger in the Group numbers but with a tighter relationship in the Zürich numbers. The `Secular Trend' – the increase in cycle amplitudes since the Maunder Minimum – is much stronger in Group numbers. After removing this trend we find little evidence for multi-cycle periodicities like the 80-year Gleissberg cycle or the two- and three-cycle periodicities. We also find little evidence for a correlation between the amplitude of a cycle and its period or for a bimodal distribution of cycle periods. We conclude that the Group numbers are most useful for extending the sunspot cycle data further back in time and thereby adding more cycles and improving the statistics. However, the Zürich numbers are slightly more useful for characterizing the on-going levels of solar activity.     

Sunspot minima dates: A secular forecast

The spectral analysis of sunspot minima date time series demonstrates that a high degree of determinism is peculiar to these data. A simple regression model involving a linear trend (11.083 yr cycle^-1) and 3 harmonic functions (with periods corresponding to 18.6, 8.8, and 7.0 Schwabe cycles) allows development of an extra-long sunspot-cycle timing forecast.     

太阳黑子面积数与黑子数指标在大气预报中的应用对比分析

分别应用太阳黑子视面积数和太阳黑子相对数代表太阳活动水平与天津夏季降水总量进行相关分析,结果表明黑子面积指标明显优于黑子数.     

Synchronization of Sunspot Numbers and Sunspot Areas

Sunspot activity is usually described by either sunspot numbers or sunspot areas. The smoothed monthly mean sunspot numbers (SNs) and the smoothed monthly mean areas (SAs) in the time interval from November 1874 to September 2007 are used to analyze their phase synchronization. Both the linear method (fast Fourier transform) and some nonlinear approaches (continuous wavelet transform, cross-wavelet transform, wavelet coherence, cross-recurrence plot, and line of synchronization) are utilized to show the phase relation between the two series. There is a high level of phase synchronization between SNs and SAs, but the phase synchronization is detected only in their low-frequency components, corresponding to time scales of about 7 to 12 years. Their high-frequency components show a noisy behavior with strong phase mixing. Coherent phase variables should exist only for a frequency band with periodicities around the dominating 11-year cycle for SNs and SAs. There are some small phase differences between them. SNs lag SAs during most of the considered time interval, and they are in general more asynchronous around the minimum and maximum times of a cycle than at the ascending and descending phases.     

Group Sunspot Numbers: A New Solar Activity Reconstruction

In this paper, we construct a time series known as the Group Sunspot Number. The Group Sunspot Number is designed to be more internally self-consistent (i.e., less dependent upon seeing the tiniest spots) and less noisy than the Wolf Sunspot Number. It uses the number of sunspot groups observed, rather than groups and individual sunspots. Daily, monthly, and yearly means are derived from 1610 to the present. The Group Sunspot Numbers use 65941 observations from 117 observers active before 1874 that were not used by Wolf in constructing his time series. Hence, we have calculated daily values of solar activity on 111358 days for 1610–1995, compared to 66168 days for the Wolf Sunspot Numbers. The Group Sunspot Numbers also have estimates of their random and systematic errors tabulated. The generation and preliminary analysis of the Group Sunspot Numbers allow us to make several conclusions: (1) Solar activity before 1882 is lower than generally assumed and consequently solar activity in the last few decades is higher than it has been for several centuries. (2) There was a solar activity peak in 1801 and not 1805 so there is no long anomalous cycle of 17 years as reported in the Wolf Sunspot Numbers. The longest cycle now lasts no more than 15 years. (3) The Wolf Sunspot Numbers have many inhomogeneities in them arising from observer noise and this noise affects the daily, monthly, and yearly means. The Group Sunspot Numbers also have observer noise, but it is considerably less than the noise in the Wolf Sunspot Numbers. The Group Sunspot Number is designed to be similar to the Wolf Sunspot Number, but, even if both indices had perfect inputs, some differences are expected, primarily in the daily values.     

Group Sunspot Numbers: A New Solar Activity Reconstruction

In this paper, we construct a time series known as the Group Sunspot Number. The Group Sunspot Number is designed to be more internally self-consistent (i.e., less dependent upon seeing the tiniest spots) and less noisy than the Wolf Sunspot Number. It uses the number of sunspot groups observed, rather than groups and individual sunspots. Daily, monthly, and yearly means are derived from 1610 to the present. The Group Sunspot Numbers use 65941 observations from 117 observers active before 1874 that were not used by Wolf in constructing his time series. Hence, we have calculated daily values of solar activity on 111358 days for 1610–1995, compared to 66168 days for the Wolf Sunspot Numbers. The Group Sunspot Numbers also have estimates of their random and systematic errors tabulated. The generation and preliminary analysis of the Group Sunspot Numbers allow us to make several conclusions: (1) Solar activity before 1882 is lower than generally assumed and consequently solar activity in the last few decades is higher than it has been for several centuries. (2) There was a solar activity peak in 1801 and not 1805 so there is no long anomalous cycle of 17 years as reported in the Wolf Sunspot Numbers. The longest cycle now lasts no more than 15 years. (3) The Wolf Sunspot Numbers have many inhomogeneities in them arising from observer noise and this noise affects the daily, monthly, and yearly means. The Group Sunspot Numbers also have observer noise, but it is considerably less than the noise in the Wolf Sunspot Numbers. The Group Sunspot Number is designed to be similar to the Wolf Sunspot Number, but, even if both indices had perfect inputs, some differences are expected, primarily in the daily values.     

An Estimate for the Size of Sunspot Cycle 24

For the sunspot cycles in the modern era (cycle?10 to the present), the ratio of R _Z(max)/R _Z(36th month) equals 1.26±0.22, where R _Z(max) is the maximum amplitude of the sunspot cycle?using smoothed monthly mean sunspot number and R _Z(36th month) is the smoothed monthly mean sunspot number 36 months after cycle?minimum. For the current sunspot cycle?24, the 36th month following the cycle?minimum occurred in November 2011, measuring?61.1. Hence, cycle?24 likely will have a maximum amplitude of about 77.0±13.4 (the one-sigma prediction interval), a value well below the average R _Z(max) for the modern era sunspot cycles (about 119.7±39.5).     

From Sunspot Area to Solar Variability: A Linear Transformation

The relationship between sunspot area and other observable solar parameters, such as spectral solar irradiance or total magnetic flux, is frequently sought by examining scatterplots of daily data, which generally show a non-linear distribution of points. We show that the scatterplots are consistent with our published result that these observable solar parameters are related to sunspot area by a transformation that is both linear and time invariant, namely by convolution with a finite impulse response function. Most solar parameters are affected by extended active regions, not just by sunspots. The fact that a complex active region evolves much more slowly than its associated sunspots provides a simple physical explanation of the observed non-linearities in scatterplots.     

Lorentz Force: A Possible Driving Force for Sunspot Rotation

Zhao and Kosovichev (Astrophys. J. 591, 446, 2003) found two opposite sub-photospheric vortical flows in the depth range of 0 – 12 Mm around a fast rotating sunspot. So far there is no theoretical model explaining such flow motions. In this paper, we try to explain this phenomenon from the point of view of magnetic flux tubes interacting with large-scale vortical motions of plasma. In the deeper zone under the photosphere, the magnetic force may be less than the nonmagnetic force of plasma. The vortical flow located there twists the flux tube and magnetic free energy is built up in the tube. In the shallower zone under the photosphere, the magnetic force may be greater than the nonmagnetic force. Thus, part of the stored magnetic free energy is released to drive the plasma to rotate in two opposite directions, e.g., in the depth ranges of 0 – 3(5) and 9 – 12 Mm. In addition, we also define a vector of nonpotential magnetic stress τ, which can be related to flare occurrence. It is calculated for the active region NOAA 10930 on 11 December 2006. We find that: i) the integral of its line-of-sight (LOS) stress successively increases around the magnetic neutral line (MNL) prior to and during the flare and decreases to a minimum after the flare; ii) the integral of its transverse stress exceeds the integral of its LOS component by one order of magnitude over the whole field of view; iii) the transverse stress first points toward the MNL, then along it, and finally it points away from it. We need other data to verify whether or not the magnetic energy is transported in the horizontal direction to the neutral line, and then partly changes into the energy in LOS direction before and during the flare.     

Infrared Evidence for Panspermia: An Update

Recent infrared spectroscopy of astronomical sources, particularly over the 2–4 μmand 8–13 μm wavebands, is re-examined in relation to the hypothesis of biological grains. The most relevant new observations provide further support for this hypothesis. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Infrared Evidence for Panspermia: An Update

Recent infrared spectroscopy of astronomical sources, particularly over the 2–4 μm and 8–13 μm wavebands, is re-examined in relation to the hypothesis of biological grains. The most relevant new observations provide further support for this hypothesis. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.