生态系统地震灾害初步研究

研究地震灾害的目的是为了保护人类.人类与周围的环境组成一个密不可分的系统,这个系统即生态系统.截止目前地震灾害的研究还局限在直观的人员伤亡和建筑物破坏,尚未涉及地震对生态系统的灾害影响,从而也未注意地震给人类带来的间接、众多、较长期的灾害影响.要真正保护人类免受地震灾害,就需要研究认识生态系统地震灾害.以人类为核心,按照构成生态系统的主体和环境因子的不同,可将生态系统由内向外、逐层包容地划分成社会生态系统、环境生态系统和自然生态系统三个层次类型.     

青藏高原冻土区冻土与植被的关系及其对高寒生态系统的影响

选择高寒生态系统植被覆盖度、生物生产力和土壤养分与组成结构等要素和冻土环境的冻土上限深度、冻土厚度和冻土地温等指标, 分析了冻土环境与高寒生态系统之间的相互关系, 并基于气温与冻土温度间的统计模型, 建立了高寒生态系统对冻土环境变化的响应分析模型. 通过对青藏高原昆仑山-唐古拉山区域冻土环境要素在人类工程活动与气候变化双重作用下的变化及其对高寒生态系统的影响研究, 表明青藏高原冻土环境变化对高寒草甸和高寒沼泽草甸生态系统影响强烈, 随冻土上限深度增加, 高寒草甸植被覆盖度和生物生产量均呈现较为显著递减趋势, 并导致高寒草甸草地土壤有机质含量呈指数形式下降, 土壤表层砂砾石含量增加而显著粗砺化; 高寒草原生态系统与冻土环境的关系相对微弱; 全球气候变化及其作用下的冻土环境变化导致该区域近15年间高寒沼泽草甸生态系统分布面积锐减28.11%, 高寒草甸生态分布面积减少了7.98%. 在不同气温升高的情景下, 未来50年, 不同地貌单元的高寒草甸生态系统对冻土环境变化的响应程度不同, 其中位于低山和平原区的高寒草甸生态系统将产生较显著的退化, 从植被覆盖度和生物生产量两方面, 定量给出了不同气候变化情境下不同典型地区和地貌单元的高寒生态系统变化特征. 未来在工程活动中采取有效的冻土环境保护措施, 对高原冻土工程稳定性和维护高寒生态系统都具有重要意义.     

(火用)(Exergy)在湖泊生态系统建模中的应用

基于达尔文"适者生存"理论的热力学表述,本文把热力学概念"(火用)(Exergy)"作为一些重要模型参数的目标函数引入湖泊生态动力学模型.应用拥控制下的参数组合模拟程序实现了参数随时间的变化,并通过变化的模型参数来反映湖泊生态系统中物种组成和生态结构随时间的变化.这一改进克服了以往模型刚性较强、适应性差和生态系统特性考虑少的缺陷,该改进的湖泊生态动力学模型被成功用于滇池生态系统的模拟.     

Yong在湖泊生态系统建模中的应用

基于达尔文“适者生存”理论的热力学表述，本文把热力学概念“Ｙｏｎｇ”作为一些重要模型参数的目标函数引入湖泊生态动力学模型，应用Ｙｏｎｇ控制下的参数组合模拟程序实现了参数随时间的变化，并通过变化的模型参数来反映湖泊生态系统中物种组成和生态结构随时间的变化。这一改进克服了以往模型刚性较强，适应性差和生态系统特性考虑少的缺陷，该改进的湖泊生态动力学模型被成功用于滇池生态系统的模拟。     

(Exergy)在湖泊生态系统建模中的应用

基于达尔文“适者生存”理论的热力学表述，本文把热力学概念“（Exergy）”作为一些重要模型参数的目标函数引入湖泊生态动力学模型．应用拥控制下的参数组合模拟程序实现了参数随时间的变化，并通过变化的模型参数来反映湖泊生态系统中物种组成和生态结构随时间的变化．这一改进克服了以往模型刚性较强、适应性差和生态系统特性考虑少的缺陷，该改进的湖泊生态动力学模型被成功用于滇池生态系统的模拟．     

青藏高原达则错近1000年来生态系统变化及可能机制

在全球变化的背景下,厘清湖泊生态系统对气候环境以及人类活动的响应机制对制定社会的适应政策非常重要.目前的研究手段如现场观测和围隔实验等可以很好地揭示湖泊生态系统在有观测记录以来的演替和变化过程,但是不能提供历史时期湖泊生态系统的变化及其对气候环境变化和人类活动的响应.古湖沼学可以为探讨湖泊生态系统的长期变化及其对气候环...     

近200 a来云南阳宗海摇蚊群落多样性及稳定性变化

云南省拥有丰富的生物多样性,其生态系统稳定性对于发挥生态系统服务功能十分重要,但近几十年以来的人类活动以及气候变化带来的干扰削弱了该区域的生态系统功能.本文以阳宗海为研究对象,探讨了1820s—2006年间人类活动背景下摇蚊群落多样性和稳定性的变化过程,并进一步探讨阳宗海摇蚊群落多样性与稳定性之间的关系.利用沉积物中的营养指标(总有机碳(TOC)含量、总氮(TN)含量和TOC/TN摩尔比)及摇蚊分别重建了湖泊营养变化及摇蚊群落物种丰富度、均匀度、相似度和稳定性(ar1),利用PCA第1轴代表摇蚊群落以检测突变点.研究发现摇蚊群落组成与湖泊营养变化有较好的一致性,二者在1990年左右发生突变,物种丰富度、均匀度和相似度指数分别在1950s、1990s初以及1970s初升高,说明摇蚊群落组成逐渐多样化,种属分布更加均匀.通过检测发现摇蚊群落稳定性在1960s初开始降低,比湖泊系统突变提前30 a左右.摇蚊群落的物种丰富度、均匀度以及稳定性指标伴随着湖泊外源营养物质输入比例增加而升高,群落多样性与稳定性之间的相关性分析表明群落稳定性随物种丰富度的升高而降低.     

梯级电站系统的地震危险性评价方法

本文的研究目标是：以大渡河干流梯级电站系统为分析实例,考虑汶川8．0级地震后地震环境的变化,研究复杂地震环境对梯级电站工程系统地震危险性的影响特征,在对梯级电站大坝以及梯级电站系统进行一些简化和假定的基础上,将全部梯级电站作为一个整体,考虑上游大坝对下游相邻大坝的附加危险性影响,提出梯级电站系统地震危险性评价的新方法。     

古湖沼学研究揭示湖泊生态系统服务变化的过程

当今在气候变化和人类活动等多重压力影响下,作为地表过程重要组成部分的湖泊生态系统正遭受着巨大威胁,其服务功能急剧退化.如何客观地评价湖泊生态系统服务的现状,并科学地预测其发展趋势,是当前亟待解决的问题.开展长期生态系统服务变化过程与机理的分析,有助于未来生态系统服务变化趋势的预测.然而,现有的观测数据往往时间较短(通常小于50年).连续的湖泊沉积记录为研究生态系统服务变化的长期过程提供了可能.本文结合前人研究成果,列举了可反映湖泊生态系统服务变化的一些古湖沼学指标,依据这些指标相对明确的生态和环境指示意义,将其与各项服务关联起来.最后,结合巢湖实例分析来说明这些指标在评估湖泊生态系统服务方面的具体应用,研究表明当今巢湖生态系统服务供应能力的持续增加是以调节服务的丧失为代价的.尽管目前的研究尚处于起步阶段,但古湖沼学手段无疑为今后湖泊生态系统服务历史状况的评估提供了途径,为古湖沼学的应用提供了一种新的思路,并为今后生态系统的保护和可持续利用提供重要的决策依据.     

梯级电站系统的地震危险性评价方法初步研究

对梯级电站大坝以及梯级电站系统进行了一些简化和假定,分析了梯级电站系统地震危险性的主要来源,重点研究了上游大坝对下游相邻大坝的附加危险性影响,将全部梯级电站作为一个整体,提出了梯级电站系统地震危险性评价方法．以大渡河干流梯级电站系统为分析实例,考虑汶川8.0级地震后地震环境的变化,评价了该系统在现今地震环境下的危险性．根据梯级电站系统的特性,考虑电站规划、设计、施工的技术经济可行性．经分析指出,提高梯级电站系统最薄弱的几个电站的设防参数,是提高系统地震安全性的最有效的途径．      

A Monte Carlo study of rainfall forecasting with a stochastic model

A procedure for short-term rainfall forecasting in real-time is developed and a study of the role of sampling on forecast ability is conducted. Ground level rainfall fields are forecasted using a stochastic space-time rainfall model in state-space form. Updating of the rainfall field in real-time is accomplished using a distributed parameter Kalman filter to optimally combine measurement information and forecast model estimates. The influence of sampling density on forecast accuracy is evaluated using a series of a simulated rainfall events generated with the same stochastic rainfall model. Sampling was conducted at five different network spatial densities. The results quantify the influence of sampling network density on real-time rainfall field forecasting. Statistical analyses of the rainfall field residuals illustrate improvement in one hour lead time forecasts at higher measurement densities.     

Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration Aims And Scope

正This journal is established by the Institute of Engineering Mechanics(IEM),China Earthquake Administration,to promote scientific exchange between Chinese and foreign scientists and engineers so as to improve the theory and practice of earthquake hazards mitigation,preparedness,and recovery.To accomplish this purpose,the journal aims to attract a balanced number of papers between Chinese and     

Foreword

Destructive earthquakes have caused great damage in China and the United States and collapsing buildings havecaused many deaths and injuries. The field of earthquake engineering studies earthquake hazards, the occurrence ofearthquakes of various magnitudes, the nature of the ground shaking during an earthquake, the vibration of structuresduring earthquakes, the strengthening of existing structures and the design of new structures to be earthquake resistant,and finally, how to cope with earthquake damage and restore a city to normal functioning. Such efforts are in progressin both countries, but unfortunately, the language barrier interferes with the free flow of information between China andthe Untied States. It would be mutually beneficial if some means could be developed to promote the exchangeof information across the Pacific Ocean. This new journal has been established for this purpose and its success willbe an important step in promoting earthquake engineering in China and the United States.     

WORLD ASSOCIATION FOR SEDIMENTATION AND EROSION RESEARCH(WASER)

正President:Giampaolo Di Silvio,Italy Vice Presidents:Ulrich C.E.Zanke,Germany Zhao-yin Wang,China The World Association for Sedimentation and Erosion Research(WASER),inaugurated on Oct.19,2004,is an independent non-governmental,non-profit organization.The mission of WASER is to promote international co-operation on the study     

Enhancing remote sensing research on global change to improve our understanding on Earth system processes

正Global Change includes climate change and other environmental changes caused by the joint interaction among various layers of Earth. From the positive side, global change provides new opportunities to human and other living forms on Earth. In the meantime, it creates tremendous challenges and negative impact. At present, the negative impacts have reached all primary processes of the global ecosystem and every aspect of human society, especially causing degradation of the ecosystem. For instance, intensive deforestation causes decline of biodiversity; global warming causes sea level rise and increases     

Solute concentrations in the lower niger river and the source rock contribution

Water quality analyses for the Niger River for the 1980/81 hydrological year are presented. The samples were collected from the main river at Lokoja, and from two main tributaries, the Kaduna and the Benue Rivers. Different water types were distinguished by the concentrations of major ions. The type Ca > Na > Mg > K - HCO₃ > SO₄ > Cl was represented at all stations during at least part of the year. Chloride was found to dominate the sulphate ion in the Kaduna and Niger, while the Benue maintained a higher concentration of sulphate relative to chloride all year round. Distinct patterns of seasonal variation in the ion concentrations were observed, particularly for the samples collected at Lokoja. Low ion concentrations were prominent during periods of high discharge, while low flow periods coincided with high dissolved ion concentrations. The contribution of rainwater to the total dissolved solids in the river waters was assessed indirectly using rainwater chemistry data from the Gulf of Guinea. The estimated rainwater contribution to the Lower Niger amounts to 5.15 mg 1^?1. Geochemical weathering calculations involving reactions of the four major minerals of granitic rocks - anorthite, biotite, albite, and K-feldspar - with carbon dioxide and water, can account for the average water composition of the Lower Niger. The proportion of the ionic components was also related to the occurrence of the respective element in the minerals.