ENSO循环过程与南极海冰变化

应用1951-2001年ENSO特征指数(NINO1+2、NINO3、NINO4、NINO3.4、SOI)和1973-1998年南极海冰北界范围以及1950-2001年SODA海洋温度资料,分析探讨了ENSO循环过程与南极海冰之间的关系,研究了南大洋和太平洋海表温度与南极海冰之间的内在联系。结果表明,南极海冰变化与ENSO循环过程存在一定联系,特别是东南极海冰的变化与ENSO循环过程较为密切。这种遥相关关系表明,ENSO循环过程不仅与热带海洋自身的海 气相互作用存在密切关系,而且与南极海冰之间也存在一定的联系。当东南极海冰范围出现异常增大和减小时,在时滞一年之后,NINO循环指数将出现减弱和加强,而南方涛动指数将出现加强和减弱。这种相关关系的机制是通过大洋环流这一载体将异常海温向北输送来实现的。南极海冰范围的异常增加或减少,会直接影响南极绕极流的冷暖结构进而影响经向水体输送的异常,从而导致热带和副热带太平洋上层海温场的异常变化,对ElNino和LaNina事件的发生起到推动作用。     

大气、海洋与固体地球的能量交换

通过对南极气温资料、南极臭氧资料、环南极海冰资料、太平洋海温资料、地球自转速度变化资料、厄尔尼诺和拉尼娜资料的模拟验证，发现厄尔尼诺事件发生与德雷克海峡海冰减少在时间上有一一对应关系。南极半岛海冰减少是太平洋环流速度减慢的原因，德雷克海峡的海冰起重要作用。大气、海洋与固体地球的角动量交换在南、北半球有不同的形式。强震起源于海平面振荡。     

太平洋环流速度减慢的原因

对南极气温资料、环南极海冰资料、太平洋海温资料、厄尔尼诺和拉尼娜资料的模拟验证，发现厄尔尼诺事件发生与德雷克海峡海冰减少在时间上有对应关系。南极半岛海冰减少是太平洋环流速度减慢的原因，德雷克海峡的海冰起重要作用。这一综合检验结果给出以日食—厄尔尼诺系数预测厄尔尼诺事件的有效性和准确性。两年周期的太平洋海温振荡使日食与厄尔尼诺之间存在12～24个月的位相差。     

ENSO事件对青藏高原古里雅冰芯中现代δ18O的影响

对１９５１～１９９２年青藏高原古里雅冰芯中δ＾１８Ｏ与Ｉ（南方涛动指数）,δ＾１８Ｏ与赤道东太平洋ＳＳＴ（海表面温度）的关系进行了分析。在Ｅ１Ｎｉｎｏ年,无论是隆冬还是盛夏,古里雅冰芯中δ＾１８Ｏ均减小。表现为明显的降温,平均降温幅度分别为１．２℃和０．４５。在特强Ｅ１Ｎｉｎｏ年,平均降温幅度分别为２．０３℃和１．４６℃。在ＬａＮｉｎａ年,盛夏古里雅;冰芯中δ＾１８Ｏ增大,表现为明显的增温,平均     

冰核对云物理属性和降水影响的研究

系统回顾了冰核对云和降水影响的研究进展,详细分析了冰核对云的宏微观特征、对流系统结构和强度、辐射、雷电、降水量和降水强度的影响途径,并从云微物理过程的角度解释了其影响机制。得到如下结论:1通常情况下,冰核浓度增加,冰晶浓度增大,云滴浓度减小,云的生命史延长;2对于发展阶段的对流云,冰核在温度较高的过冷区活化使潜热在中低层提早释放,增加了对流系统中层不稳定能量,促进了对流系统的发展;3卷云中冰核浓度的增加,改变了冰相水物质与液相水物质的比例;削弱或抑制了卷云中同质核化,增大了卷云中冰晶粒子的平均半径;4冰核浓度的增加,能够使到达地气系统的净辐射增加;5冰核浓度的变化能够引起雷电活动发生频次和强度的变化;6冰核浓度增加,引起降水量的变化不确定,即降水量增加、减少或者变化不显著的情况都可能存在。这些结果为改进数值模式中冰核活化参数化方法提供指导,从而提高数值模式对云和降水的预报能力;同时为人工影响天气选择合适的人工催化剂和撒播时机提供参考。     

Interannual variability of monsoons in Malaysia and its relationship with ENSO

Interannual variations of the monsoons have been studied utilising homogeneous rainfall records of 41 years (1951–1991) from Malaysia and upper air data of stations in Asia, Australia and Western Pacific. Sources of upper air data are U.S. Department of Commerce and Kuala Lumpur Northern Winter Monsoon Activity Centre. Extreme wet and dry years have been identified and the influence of ENSO on Malaysian annual rainfall has been discussed. Influence of ENSO on the performance of northern summer and winter monsoons has also been studied from Malaysian rainfall data. Further, regional circulation patterns associated with El Nino and La Nina years have also been identified. No linear trend has been found in the annual rainfall of 16 stations in Malaysia. Most El Nino years are associated with below median and La Nina years with above median rainfall at most stations in Malaysia. ENSO has greater influence over East Malaysia than peninsular Malaysia. Interannual variability of rainfall with reference to ENSO conditions has been discussed in details. Also, circulation features have been identified to foresee El Nino/La Nina events.     

中国沙尘暴天气的新特征及成因分析

2000～2002年,中国北方地区频频发生沙尘暴天气,给当地和广大下游地区工农业生产、交通运输、空气质量和人民的日常生活都带来了极大危害。沙尘暴天气呈现频次高、发生时间提前、发生期时间长、强度大、影响范围广等新特征。对气候变化和地理环境背景的分析研究表明,近年来中国北方沙尘暴频繁爆发的原因主要是:1)近两年处于反厄尔尼诺(拉尼娜)事件的高峰期,使东亚冬季风频繁,导致大风天气频繁发生;2)在沙尘暴发生季节,中国北方降水明显减少,气温回升迅速且温度偏高于往年,使解冻的地表土层疏松,为沙尘暴的发生提供了丰富的沙源;3)近年来中国北方干旱加剧、土地荒漠化严重,使原本广阔的戈壁沙漠面积更加扩大,有利于沙尘暴天气的发生,这与不合理的土地利用状况有关。     

北江天然径流量的变化特征及其影响因素

分析了最近45年来北江天然径流量的变化特征，并对其影响因素进行了分析，结果表明：北江天然年径流量具有阶段性特征，1984年后，发生明显变化，持续丰水和持续枯水时段开始变长，年际变化存在21年和11年的周期；锋面低槽形成大暴雨是北江主汛期径流量迅速增加的主要原因；大罗山、石坑崆是北江的两级迎水坡，其形成的多雨中心圈是北江径流量补充的主要来源；厄尔尼诺现象出现的次年北江年径流量普遍增大，拉尼娜现象出现的当年北江径流量普遍增大；太阳黑子的急剧变化，改变了地球的热力系统，对大气环流产生影响，这是太阳黑子影响流域径流量的一个主要原因。     

Evaluation of present-day rainfall simulations over West Africa in CORDEX regional climate models

The objective of this study is to evaluate the ability of seven CORDEX regional climate models (RCMs), driven by ERA-Interim reanalysis dataset to simulate the observed rainfall characteristics over West Africa during the period of 1990–2008. The seasonal climatology, annual rainfall cycles, interannual variability, 850 hPa specific humidity, and wind fields of the RCMs outputs were assessed over a number of spatial scales covering three climatically homogenous subregions (Guinea Coast, Savannah, and Sahel) and the entire West Africa domain. The ability of the RCMs to simulate the response to El Nino and La Nina events were further assessed. Results indicate that the RCMs captured the spatial pattern of rainfall and the three distinctive phases of the West African monsoon reasonably. It is worth noting that RCA and CRCM5 failed to distinctively reproduce the monsoon jump while CCLM, HIRHAM, and REMO largely overestimated the amount of the pre- and the post-monsoon rainfall. The analysis also showed significant biases in individual models depending on the subregion and season under consideration. These biases appear to be linked to the model’s failure to resolve convective processes and topography accurately. The majority of the RCMs used were consistent with the ground observation in capturing the dry (wet) conditions associated with the El Nino (La Nina) events. Statistical analysis conclusively revealed that the RCMs performance varies over the subregions and seasons, implying that no single model is best at all time. In general, REGCM3 was found to be the most outstanding of all the RCMs and is therefore recommended for use in rainfall assessment over West Africa.     

ENSO-7赤道西太平洋异常纬向风所驱动的热带太平洋次表层海温距平的循环

近几年的一系列分析研究表明，ENSO与异常东亚冬季风之间有相互影响，持续的强（弱）东亚冬季风通过引起赤道西太平洋地区的西（东）风异常对El Niño/La Niña的发生起着重要作用；赤道太平洋次表层海温异常（SOTA）的年际变化（循环）与ENSO发生有密切关系；ENSO的真正源在西太平洋暖池，暖池正（负）SOTA沿赤道温跃层东传到东太平洋，便导致El Niño/La Niña的爆发；在暖池正（负）SOTA沿赤道东传的同时，有负（正）SOTA沿10°N和10°S纬度带向西传播，从而构成SOTA的循环；热带太平洋SOTA循环的驱动者是赤道西太平洋的异常纬向风。进而可以认为：ENSO实质上是主要由异常东亚季风引起的赤道西太平洋异常纬向风所驱动的热带太平洋次表层海温距平的年际循环。     

Characteristics of certain surface meteorological parameters in relation to the interannual variability of Indian summer monsoon

With an objective to understand the influence of surface marine meteorological parameters in relation to the extreme monsoon activity over the Indian sub-continent leading to flood/drought, a detailed analysis of the sea level pressure over the Southern Hemisphere and various surface meteorological parameters over the Indian seas is carried out. The present study using the long term data sets (Southern Hemispheric Sea Level Pressure Analysis; Comprehensive Ocean Atmospheric Data Set over the Indian Seas; Surface Station Climatology Data) clearly indicates that the sea surface temperature changes over the south eastern Pacific (El Ninõ/La Niña) have only a moderate impact (not exceeding 50% reliability) on the Indian summer monsoon activity. On the other hand, the sea level pressure anomaly (SOI) over Australia and the south Pacific has a reasonably high degree of significance (more than 70%) with the monsoon activity over India. However, these two parameters (SLP and SST) do not show any significant variability over the Indian seas in relation to the summer monsoon activity. Over the Indian seas, the parameters which are mainly associated with the convective activity such as cloud cover, relative humidity and the surface wind were found to have a strong association with the extreme monsoon activity (flood/drought) and thus the net oceanic heat loss over the Indian seas provides a strong positive feed-back for the monsoon activity over India.     

全球气候变暖对西北地区秋季降水的影响

分析了在全球气候变暖背景下,西北地区秋季降水的时空变化特征和主要影响因素,发现秋季降水量的均值突变现象在四季中最为明显,西北地区东部和西部降水在年代际尺度上具有相反的变化趋势.El Nino年秋季,新疆脊偏强,印缅槽偏弱,西北地区东部降水偏少;La Nina年秋季降水形势相反.CO₂倍增情况下的数值试验表明,西北地区西部夏季降水增加明显,而秋季不明显;西北地区东部夏季降水呈减少趋势,而秋季降水增加明显.     

Seasonal and Interannual Sea Surface Temperature Variability in the Coastal Cities of Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal

The sea surface temperature (SST) variations play a veryimportant role in the genesis and maintenance of meteorological and oceanographic processessuch as monsoon depressions and subsequent floods, large-scale sea level fluctuationsand genesis of tropical cyclones. Many low lying coastal regions of South Asia are adjacentto river deltas and have large population. The dense population, poor economy and severalother socio-economic factors make these areas most vulnerable to the impact of climate change.Variability of sea surface temperature (SST) is importantas the duration and intensity of SST provide the basis for studies related to climatic changescenario. In this study an attempt has been made to estimate the recent SST trends in the coastalwaters of some cities, which lie on the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal. The annual andinterannual variability has also been studied. The SST variations have then been linkedwith the El Nino and La Nina events.The NOAA-NASA Pathfinder Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) SST fields from 1985-1998, created in the Jet Propulsion Laboratory(JPL), USA are used in this study. Here the quality of data is an important factor toobtain reliable estimates of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) trends and other related parameters.However, this is not possible with the conventional type data, due to low quality as wellas sparse data in the region. Though the satellite based SST climatologies have shorterobservation lengths, they can provide reliable estimates of recent SST variability overa large oceanic areas with sparse or no data.Increasing trend of SST is observed throughout all theseasons in the northern Arabian Sea extending from Oman to Karachi and Mumbai and furthersouth to Salalah and Colombo. However, in coastal islands stations further south ofIndia such as at Colombo the increment is not significant. Though the increasing trend in SSTduring winter is not significant, nevertheless it shows the increasing influence of coldspells on this Island. An interesting situation has been observed in the Bay of Bengal. On anaverage, increasing trends in the annual SST were observed in Visakhaputnam. But at thestations located in the northeastern part of Bay of Bengal, namely Hiron Point and Cox'sBazar reverse conditions are observed. In the Southern Bay of Bengal variations in SST isnot significant which reflects in the SST analysis of Chennai and Port Blair stations. Locationof these stations at lower latitudes (near by equator) probably is the reason for this insignificantchange. It has been found that the interannual mode of SST variations dominate the linear SSTtrends which is characterized by the El Nino Southern Oscillations (ENSO) scale cycle.     

近50年来ENSO与祁连山区气温降水和出山径流的对应关系

根据有关水文气象台、站的观测资料,分析了恩索(ENSO)与祁连山区气温、降水的对应关系,研究了祁连山区出山径流对厄尔尼诺(ElNino)现象响应.结果表明:ElNino现象对祁连山区的气温、降水和径流的影响随着发生时间和地段的不同而不同.ElNino现象发生之年,整个祁连山区均出现气温偏高、降水减少及径流偏枯的现象,尤以东段和中段最为明显.ElNino现象次年,祁连山区东段和中段气温偏高、降水减少及径流偏估的程度不如ElNino现象当年那样显著,而西段的气温、降水及径流与ElNino现象则无明显关系.     

西太平洋次表层海温异常与北赤道流异常海温西传

通过对热带太平洋上层XBT温度资料分析,探讨了对厄尔尼诺(El Nino)事件发生起重要作用的西太平洋暖池区次表层海温变暖异常的变化规律,揭示了影响西太平洋暖池区次表层海温变暖异常的形成机制.分析表明:西太平洋暖池区的次表层海温异常变暖与赤道太平洋的北赤道流(10°N)的海温异常存在密切关系.在El Nino事件发生的前期,位于赤道中东太平洋的异常暖水沿北赤道流温跃层潜沉向西太平洋暖池区输送,在西太平洋暖池堆积并向赤道西太平洋扩展,当异常暖水达到一定强度,并在大气的强迫下,异常暖水沿温跃层东传至赤道中东太平洋并上浮于海面,最终导致El Nino事件的爆发.北赤道流的异常海温西传是导致西太平洋暖池区次表层海温异常的重要机制,是导致El Nino事件发生的关键.     

古里雅冰芯气候记录对ENSO事件的响应

ENSO现象是一个产生于大尺度海-气相互作用的全球事件, 它是影响全球中低纬度大部分地区气候年际变化的一个重要的因子. 通过高通滤波法、累积异常法以及非参数检验等方法, 对古里雅冰芯中所记录的气候信息与ENSO事件进行相关分析表明, 在厄尔尼诺年, 古里雅冰芯中记录的降水量显著减少, 但对于δ¹⁸O而言, 虽然也在厄尔尼诺年偏低, 但未达到显著性水平.     

赤道太平洋次表层海水温度异常的信号通道

应用热带太平洋上层XBT温度资料,分析探讨了西太平洋暖池区次表层海温冷暖异常信号的变化规律,揭示了影响西太平洋暖池区次表层海温冷变异常的信号通道。分析表明,西太平洋暖池区的次表层海温异常变冷与太平洋北赤道流的海温冷异常信号西传有重要关系。北赤道流的海温异常冷(暖)信号是沿温跃层由赤道中东太平洋潜沉向西太平洋暖池区传播,与西太平洋次表层海温异常(冷)暖信号向赤道中东太平洋传播构成了热带海洋信号的气旋式"环流通道"。在这一"环流通道"中,北赤道流的海温异常信号西传是导致西太平洋暖池区及西太平洋次表层海温异常的重要机制,是影响厄尔尼诺(ElNino)和拉尼娜(LaNina)事件发生的关键。     

El Chichón volcano, April 4, 1982: volcanic cloud history and fine ash fallout

This retrospective study focuses on the fine silicate particles (<62 µm in diameter) produced in a large eruption that was otherwise well studied. Fine particles represent a potential hazard to aircraft, because as simple particles they have very low terminal velocities and could potentially stay aloft for weeks. New data were collected to describe the fine particle size distributions of distal fallout samples collected soon after eruption. Although, about half of the mass of silicate particles produced in this eruption of ~1 km³ dense rock equivalent magma were finer than 62 µm in diameter, and although these particles were in a stratospheric cloud after eruption, almost all of these fine particles fell to the ground near (<300 km) the volcano in a day or two. Particles falling out from 70 to 300 km from the volcano are mostly <62 µm in diameter. The most plausible explanation for rapid fallout is that the fine ash nucleates ice in the convective cloud and initiates a process of meteorological precipitation that efficiently removes fine silicates. These observations are similar to other eruptions and we conclude that ice formation in convective volcanic clouds is part of an effective fine ash removal process that affects all or most volcanic clouds. The existence of pyroclastic flows and surges in the El Chichón eruption increased the overall proportion of fine silicates, probably by milling larger glassy pyroclasts.     

青海省东部地区气候变化与ENSO事件关系

ENSO(厄尔尼诺-南方涛动)事件的发生会影响区域气候变化。通过对青海东部地区5个站点1959~2005年的降水、气温资料、干燥度和海表温度距平(SSTA)与南方涛动指数(SOI)的月序列进行相关性分析和周期性谱分析,探讨了区域气候变化与ENSO事件的关系。结果表明,1959~2005年青海省东部地区气候趋于暖干,并且冬春季变化趋势显著;暖事件的发生对该区域降水、气温及干燥度的变化影响较大,且气温对ENSO事件的响应要大于降水;ENSO事件对该区域的气候变化有两到三个月的影响期,EI Nino事件的发生对当月的影响较大,而La Nina事件的发生对该区域有两到三个月的持续影响期;降水距平及气温距平与ENSO事件存在短期相同的变化趋势,且该地区气候变化受南方涛动影响明显。     

Progress in Lightning Forecast by Using Numerical Weather Models and Model Outputs

Lightning can threaten human and equipment safety. An indicator of sever convective weather, it plays an important role in atmospheric chemistry. The intensive studies have advanced the lightning forecast in the mesoscale weather models and its application in global climate models. There are three methods to forecast lightning by using numerical weather models: Numerical diagnosis prediction based on synoptic background filed statistical relations; Flash rate parameterization developed with the relationship between dynamical, microphysical and electrification processes, and The numerical weather model coupled with the explicit electrification and lightning parameterization schemes. In this paper, the research progress in lightning forecast with three above-mentioned methods were reviewed, and the future research issues on lightning forecast were also discussed.