The application of fuzzy risk in researching flood disasters

To perform a fuzzy risk assessment the simplest way is to calculate the fuzzy expected value and convert fuzzy risk into non-fuzzy risk, i.e., a crisp value. In doing so, there is a transition from a fuzzy set to a crisp set. Therefore, the first step is to define an α level value, followed by selecting the elements x with a subordinate degree A(x) ≥ α. The fuzzy expected values, E_a (x) \underline{E}_{\alpha } (x) and [`(E)]_a (x) \overline{E}_{\alpha } (x) , of a possibility–probability distribution represent the fuzzy risk values being calculated. Therefore, we can obtain a conservative risk value, a venture risk value and a maximum probability risk value. Under such an α level, three risk values can be calculated. As α adopts all values between the set [0, 1], it is possible to obtain a series of risk values. Therefore, the fuzzy risk may either be a multi-valued risk or a set-valued risk. Calculation of the fuzzy expected value of a flood risk in the Jinhua River basin has been performed based on the interior–outer-set model. The selection of an α value is dependent on the confidence in different groups of people, while the selection of a conservative risk value or a venture risk value is dependent on the risk preference of these people.     

Global snowmelt flood disasters and their impact from 1900 to 2020北大核心CSCD

Under the background of climate warming, the occurrence time, frequency, intensity, and impact of snowmelt flood disasters have changed significantly. Thus, establishing a global snowmelt flood disaster database is particularly important for disaster risk management. With the help of a web crawler, and based on multiple data sources such as natural disaster databases, documents, books, government agency websites, and news media, this study collected relevant information of snowmelt floods and mixed floods and established standards for identifying snowmelt flood events and their disaster impacts based on data from the different sources. Following the screening, sorting, fusion, and integration of snowmelt flood events, a global snowmelt flood disaster dataset containing 579 pieces of data with strong pertinence and reliability was constructed. The temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of global snowmelt flood disasters from 1900 to 2020 were preliminarily analyzed. The results showed that the snowmelt floods were mainly distributed between 30° N and 60° N, with more mixed floods south of 50° N and more snowmelt floods north of 50° N. Spring was the period of highest incidence of snowmelt flood disasters, followed by winter, summer, and autumn, respectively. The snowmelt floods that occurred in spring, autumn, and winter were mainly at 40°~50° N, and the snowmelt floods that occurred in summer were mainly at 30°~40° N. Compared with the snowmelt floods, the mixed floods were more frequent and more destructive, and their frequency increased with climate warming. The results provide a scientific basis for risk prevention and loss assessment of global snowmelt flood disasters. © 2022 Science Press (China).     

淮河流域旱涝灾害致灾气候阈值

采用淮河流域内1959—2008年110个气象站的逐日降水资料,结合流域1978—2008年农作物旱涝灾害受灾面积数据,基于降水致灾因子与农作物承灾体受损程度等研究,提出旱、涝致灾气候阈值概念,在此基础上分析旱涝灾害发生的时空特征,确定淮河流域合理的旱涝致灾气候阈值区间并建立致灾气候阈值与农作物受灾面积之间的定量关系。结果表明:① 致灾气候阈值可通过计算发生旱涝事件时间段累积降水量除以1959—2008年相应时段累积降水量的平均值来定义,得到的旱、涝致灾气候阈值在不同尺度下对旱、涝灾害事件均有较好地稳定反映,可满足研究区旱、涝事件分析需求;② 洪涝致灾气候阈值与农作物受灾面积存在一致的变化趋势,而干旱致灾气候阈值与农作物受灾面积相关系数高达0.96,构建了基于干旱致灾气候阈值的农作物受灾面积预测模型。     

Risk analysis and influencing factors of drought and flood disasters in China

The risk analysis of flood and drought disasters and the study of their influencing factors enhance our understanding of the temporal and spatial variation law of disasters and help identify the main factors affecting disasters. This paper uses the provincial administrative region of China as the research area. The proportion of the disaster area represents the degree of the disaster. The statistical distribution of the proportions was optimized from 10 alternative distributions based on a KS test, and the disaster risk was analyzed. Thirty-five indicators were selected from nature, agriculture and the social economy as alternative factors. The main factors affecting flood and drought disasters were selected by Pearson, Spearman and Kendall correlation coefficient test. The results demonstrated that the distribution of floods and drought is right-skewed, and the gamma distribution is the best statistical distribution for fitting disasters. In terms of time, the risk of flood and drought disasters in all regions showed a downward trend. Economic development and the enhancement of the ability to resist disasters were the main reasons for the change in disasters. Spatially, the areas with high drought risk were mainly distributed in Northeast and North China, and the areas with high flood risk were mainly distributed in the south, especially in Hubei, Hunan, Jiangxi and Anhui. The distribution of floods and drought disasters was consistent with the distribution characteristics of precipitation and water resources in China. Among the natural factors, precipitation was the main factor causing changes in floods and drought disasters. Among the agricultural and socioeconomic factors, the indicators reflecting the disaster resistance ability and regional economic development level were closely related to flood and drought disasters. The research results have reference significance for disaster classification, disaster formation mechanisms and flood and drought resistance.

     

基于灰色理论的西藏暴雨洪涝预测

以西藏38个气象站点1985-2014年实测降水量为基础数据,应用灰色预测模型和长序列趋势拟合方法预测2015-2019年的年降水量和季节降水量,经2015-2017年的实测降水数据验证,其结果良好,最后以调整后的降水距平百分率为洪涝指标,分析2018年、2019年的洪涝预测情况。结果表明,西藏2018年降水集中在东南部地区的林芝、米林、波密和察隅一带, 2019年降水主要集中在芒康地区,季节上春季降水主要集中在雅鲁藏布江大拐弯地区,夏季主要在索曲河、怒江上游地区,秋季主要在嘉黎、林芝、波密一带,冬季降水集中在聂拉木地区。2018年和2019年洪涝易发生在春季和冬季,洪涝情况都相对正常,大部分县区为无涝或正常状态,少数县区为轻微洪涝,极少数县区为中涝或特涝, 2019年洪涝情况相较于2018年整体偏多,其中在2018年的拉孜县和2019年的拉萨城关区,极有可能出现特涝灾害。     

Demanding distances in later life leisure travel

This article draws on a serial interview study of later life leisure travel in the UK to question how a wider trend towards holidaying further afield has come to feature in the lives of three cohorts of older Britons. Drawing on theories of social practice that see notions of desirable activity as produced through the interplay of opportunities to engage in relevant activities, collective apprehensions of what doing these activities should involve, and the physical capacities necessarily required to undertake them, we examine their leisure travel in two regards. Firstly, we consider how evolving social and infrastructural arrangements are effectively demanding greater distance travel in the sense that they shape what socially desirable leisure travel is taken to entail at certain points in time. Secondly, we examine how distance travel may be physically demanding in the sense that older bodies may be particularly likely to face certain challenges when they travel. This strategy allows us to examine how broader social expectations regarding distance travel have become part of the lives of older Britons and the manner in which they are currently reconciling them with both the anticipation and the experience of bodily ageing. We end with the implications of our findings for the future of later life leisure travel as a potential hotspot of growing societal energy demand and the further application of social practice theory in view of the evidently variable capacities of human bodies.     

Risk assessment of rainstorm and flood disasters in China between 2004 and 2009 based on gray fixed weight cluster analysis

Rainstorm and flood disasters frequently occur in China, causing heavy losses for people’s lives and property and reducing the capability of sustainable development of the national and local economy. In this study, the risks of the rainstorm and flood disasters are assessed for the Chinese mainland, excluding Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan and also employ the historical data of seven indicators, including the affected area of crops, the affected population, the direct economic loss, and etc., from 2004 to 2009. Based on the large 1,302 historical sample data, the impact of rainstorm and flood disasters were analyzed using the methodology of gray fixed weight cluster analysis according to disaster losses, which were divided into the three gray classes of high, medium, and low. The regional differences of the risk assessment of the rainstorm and flood disasters are discussed, and the dynamical risk zoning map is conducted. The results show a consistent conclusion with the actual losses of rainstorm and flood disasters over each administrative district, which can provide more scientific evidence for the relevant departments of disaster prevention and mitigation.     

中国城市洪涝致灾机理与风险评估研究进展

近年来，在全球气候变化和城市化快速发展的共同影响下，中国城市洪涝灾害日益严重，已经成为影响中国城市公共安全的突出问题，严重制约经济社会的持续健康发展。变化环境下城市洪涝致灾机理与风险评估研究是完善城市防洪除涝减灾体系、提升城市防洪除涝能力的重要依据。本文阐述了气候变化和城市化发展对城市洪涝灾害的影响机制，系统分析了城市洪涝灾害的驱动要素和致灾机理，梳理了城市洪涝灾害的风险评估和分区方法，并以济南市海绵城市示范区为例，对城市洪涝灾害风险分区方法进行了分析和对比。     

中国城市洪涝致灾机理与风险评估研究进展

近年来，在全球气候变化和城市化快速发展的共同影响下，中国城市洪涝灾害日益严重，已经成为影响中国城市公共安全的突出问题，严重制约经济社会的持续健康发展。变化环境下城市洪涝致灾机理与风险评估研究是完善城市防洪除涝减灾体系、提升城市防洪除涝能力的重要依据。本文阐述了气候变化和城市化发展对城市洪涝灾害的影响机制，系统分析了城市洪涝灾害的驱动要素和致灾机理，梳理了城市洪涝灾害的风险评估和分区方法，并以济南市海绵城市示范区为例，对城市洪涝灾害风险分区方法进行了分析和对比。     

近300a来塔里木河流域旱涝灾害特征分析

干旱与洪涝是极端水文事件中最具有代表性的水文事件,在气候变化的影响下旱涝灾害事件越来越引起人们的关注. 采用传统的气象干旱指标-标准化降水指数SPI和小波分析法、反距离加权法以及线性回归分析,研究了近300 a来塔里木河流域旱涝灾害分布特征及关键影响因素. 结果表明：近300 a来塔里木河流域旱涝灾害呈增加的趋势,且洪涝事件较干旱事件明显. 其中,喀什、阿克苏等地的发生频率最高,并表现为群发性;近60 a塔里木河流域自西向东旱涝灾害事件呈交替现象. 小波分析结果表明,塔里木河流域旱涝灾害呈现15 a的周期性,由此推断未来5~10 a研究区湿润化面积仍有扩大的可能. 大气环流指数与多尺度下的SPI指相关性检验表明,PNA对秋季和冬季的SPI值的影响较为显著;旱涝灾害对农牧业的影响较为严重,其中,洪涝灾害的影响大于干旱.     

1980—2019年新疆南部不同强度暴雨洪水灾害的空间分布和时间变化特征

以1980—2019年新疆南部出现的暴雨洪水灾害事件造成的死亡人数、倒塌房屋数、倒塌棚圈数、牲畜死亡数、受灾面积作为灾情要素,采用比值权重法和无量纲化线性求和,构建了暴雨洪水灾害事件的灾损指数。根据灾损指数,采用百分位数法将每次暴雨洪水灾害事件定量划分为一般、较重、严重、特重四个等级。结果表明：新疆南部暴雨洪水事件在塔里木盆地北缘多于南缘,西部多于东部,高值区集中在阿克苏地区、喀什地区、克孜勒苏柯尔克孜自治州一带;暴雨洪水事件多发在3—10月,年出现次数呈现明显上升趋势,增幅为8次·（10a）^-1,主要表现为一般性灾害发生频次的增加;新疆南部暴雨洪水灾害年平均灾损指数在1985年和1999年发生两次突变,平均值表现出“低—高—低”阶段性变化;暴雨洪水灾害发生次数与3—10月降水量、大雨发生日数、暴雨发生日数密切相关。近40年来新疆南部降水量的增多,导致暴雨洪水灾害次数增加;年平均灾损指数与特重和严重灾害发生次数关系密切,后者对其贡献率达87%。     

基于文献记录的黑河流域历史时期旱涝特征分析

流域的旱涝灾害特征及其变化规律是流域水资源演变研究的重要内容。利用历史文献资料重建了西北内陆河黑河流域公元0-1949年的旱涝灾害等级序列,结合滑动平均、小波变换处理等方法,探讨了流域历史时期旱涝等级的频数特征、旱涝变化的周期特征及其与气候冷暖和人类活动之间的关系。对公元1000年以后的旱涝灾害规律进行分析,结果表明：流域存在5个旱灾高发阶段（1230-1270年、1430-1530年、1640-1760年、1860-1890年、1900-1940年）,3个涝灾高发期（1650-1690年、1730-1790年、1830-1910年）,并呈现出旱涝灾害频发的态势;1000-1949年期间,流域旱涝灾害存在4个准周期变化,对比发现这与太阳黑子活动等环境变化周期有紧密的联系;1580年以前,气候冷暖是影响旱涝灾害发生的主要因子,但16世纪以后,旱涝灾害交替频发,很可能是人类活动加剧了该现象。所以,定量辨析自然因素和人类活动对流域旱涝灾害的影响将是未来研究的重点方向。     

基于风险度的青海省暴雨洪涝灾害风险评估

基于自然灾害风险原理,结合青海省气象数据、地理信息数据、社会经济数据,并利用主成分分析法、GIS自然断点法对青海省暴雨洪涝灾害致灾因子危险度、承载体易损度评估模型以及暴雨洪涝灾害风险度进行评估,结果表明：青海省不同强度降水日数均呈增多趋势,新世纪以来中雨日数及强降水日数增加趋势尤为明显;暴雨洪涝灾害致灾因子危险度呈由东南向西北降低的趋势,承载体易损度为东北部地区最高,南部以及西部地区最低;暴雨洪涝风险较高的地区主要集中在东部地区,互助、湟中、大通、西宁为高风险区,东部大部地区、环青海湖地区为较高风险区,西部地区为低风险区。该评估结果可以在气象灾害风险管理业务中进行应用,可以加强对暴雨洪涝灾害风险的影响程度及影响区域的判定,为地方防灾减灾救灾工作提供科学依据。     

Relationships between typhoon types and debris flow disasters in Taiwan

Frequent debris flow disasters caused by heavy precipitation during the annual typhoon season are some of the most serious disasters in Taiwan. This study is on the debris flow disasters associated with the typhoons that hit Taiwan between 1986 and 2004. Typhoon data and records of debris flow disasters available for Nantou and Hualien counties in Taiwan were analyzed. The paths and rainfall characteristics of typhoons were found to have a great effect on the debris flows at these locations. Accordingly, the typhoons were grouped into four major types based on their paths and related disasters. The relationships between rainfall intensity and accumulation and debris flow are discussed for the four major typhoon types. The information may form the basis for providing useful indicators for disaster management.     

The human component in flood warning and flood response system

The disign of flood warning — flood response systems is often performed as part of the overall engineering analysis of flood damage mitigation schemes. However, an important part of the flood response component of such systems is human perception of the flood hazard and its implication for the responses undertaken. This human dimension is examined from three viewpoints, the perception of the flood, the issues in the warning dissemination process, and the implications for the actions undertaken by individual flood plain occupants in response to a warning. Evidence is provided to show how the human characteristics of the flood plain occupants can signigicantly affect the benefits derived from a flood warning — flood response system. The importance of these non-engineering aspects of the problem leads to recommendations for closer collaboration between traditional technical experts and social scientists. The cooperation should extend beyond the assessment of the reduction in flood damages expected from a particular flood warning scheme into actual design of the dissemination process and response mechanisms.     

Warning and evacuation in response to sediment-related disasters

On July 19, 2006, several sediment-related disasters (debris flows and landslides) occurred in Okaya and Suwa, Nagano Prefecture, Japan. In Okaya, neither the municipal government nor the residents had expected such a disaster, and they were unprepared. No evacuation of the population took place prior to the disaster, and two debris flows killed eight people. Another debris flow struck a retirement home. Fortunately, the first-floor residents could be evacuated to the second floor. In contrast, the nearby town of Suwa was evacuated voluntarily before the debris flow struck, and no fatalities occurred. This paper describes the situation at the time of the disaster, the evacuations in Okaya and in Suwa, and their consequences from the point of view of disaster-prevention personnel and retirement-home staff. Factors that should be considered in formulating warning and evacuation systems in response to sediment-related disasters are discussed.     

福建省植被与地质灾害关系初探

根据福建省县(市)地质灾害调查与区划已入库的资料,通过对地质灾害类型与植被类型关系的统计分析和局部林地的植被雨水截留率和土体径流路径的研究,表明了植被对于水文效应和土体性质的改良作用,从而揭示了植被对于防治地质灾害作用机理,同时指出植被对阻止各类地质灾害的发生还有许多积极作用及局限性,植被作用于滑坡的各种参数并不是一成不变的,需要根据当地树种、土壤、气候等综合因素判定。     

鄂西清江岩溶与地质灾害的关系

鄂西清江流域碳酸盐岩分布广泛,岩溶地质灾害较为发育。文章在清江流域11个县市地质灾害详细调查成果基础上,运用统计归纳和工程地质类比等方法,分析清江岩溶与地质灾害的关系表现在4个方面:岩溶水系统导致岩溶塌陷（及灾害链）;溶蚀扩张和岩溶化诱发加剧滑坡和崩塌,溶蚀风化形成危岩（潜在不稳定斜坡）;钙质胶结的存在加强了滑坡崩塌的稳定性;岩溶与地质灾害易混淆,以新塘石林为例强调二者之间需甄别。指出碳酸盐岩区地质灾害调查应加强岩溶孕灾地质背景研究;研究钙质胶结的分布规律与加固效果可应用于滑坡和崩塌防治。      

Yes,we can: motivate Dutch citizens to engage in self-protective behavior with regard to flood risks

Although the risk of flooding poses a serious threat to the Dutch public, citizens are not very inclined to engage in self-protective behaviors. Current risk communication tries to enhance these self-protective behaviors among citizens, but is nonetheless not very successful. The level of citizens engaging in self-protective actions remains rather low. Therefore, this research strives to determine the factors that might enhance or lessen the intention to engage in self-protection among citizens. The study was a 2 (flood risk: high vs low) × 2 (efficacy beliefs: high vs low) between subject experiment. It was conducted to test how varying levels of flood risk and efficacy beliefs influence two different self-protective behaviors, namely information seeking and the intention to engage in risk mitigating or preventive behaviors. Furthermore, the relationship between information seeking and the intention to take self-protective actions was discussed. Results showed that high levels of flood risk lead to higher levels of both information seeking and the intention to engage in self-protective behaviors than low levels of flood risk. For efficacy beliefs, the same trend occurred. Also, results showed that information seeking seems to coincide with the intention to take preventive actions and acted as a mediator between the levels of perceived risk and efficacy and the intention to take self-protective actions.