Vulnerability index and capacity spectrum based methods for urban seismic risk evaluation. A comparison

This article contributes to the development and application of two latest-generation methods of seismic risk analysis in urban areas. The first method, namely vulnerability index method (VIM), considers five non-null damage states, defines the action in terms of macroseismic intensity and the seismic quality of the building by means of a vulnerability index. The estimated damage degree is measured by semi-empirical functions. The second method, namely capacity spectrum based method (CSBM), considers four no damage states, defines the seismic action in terms of response spectra and the building vulnerability by means of its capacity spectrum. In order to apply both methods to Barcelona (Spain) and compare the results, a deterministic and a probabilistic hazard scenario with soil effects are used. The deterministic one corresponds to a historic earthquake, while the probabilistic seismic ground motion has a probability of exceedence of 10% in 50 years. Detailed information on the building design has been obtained along years by collecting, arranging, improving, and completing the database of the dwellings of the city. A Geographic Information System (GIS) has been customized allowing storing, analysing, and displaying this large amount of spatial and tabular data of dwellings. The obtained results are highly consistent with the historical and modern evolution of the populated area and show the validity and strength of both methods. Although Barcelona has a low to moderate seismic hazard, its expected seismic risk is significant because of the high vulnerability of its buildings. Cities such as Barcelona, located in a low to moderate seismic hazard region, are usually not aware of the seismic risk. The detailed risk maps obtained offer a great opportunity to guide the decision making in the field of seismic risk prevention and mitigation in Barcelona, and for emergency planning in the city.     

Empirical seismic vulnerability,deterministic risk and monetary loss assessment in Fira (Santorini,Greece)

A deterministic seismic risk and monetary loss model is presented for the capital of Santorini volcanic Island, the town of Fira, on a building block scale. A local seismic source of M5.6 inferred from a recent volcano unrest in 2011–2012, detailed seismic vulnerability of 435 buildings and site conditions deduced from free-field ambient noise measurements were combined toward assessing the EMS-98 damage grade and its probability to occur. The seismic scenario yielded no damage or slight damage for 84% of the buildings, 16% of the constructions are expected to present moderate-to-heavy damage, while the economic loss amounts to 4 million euros. Although the model predicts low damage and direct economic loss, interaction with the touristic business activities might produce cascade side effects for the economy of the island and consequently Greece’s GDP, an important part of which emanates from Santorini.     

Seismic risk assessment of buildings in Izmir,Turkey

Izmir, the third largest city and a major economic center in Turkey, has more than three million residents and half million buildings. In this study, the seismic risk in reinforced concrete buildings that dominate the building inventory in Izmir is investigated through multiple approaches. Five typical reinforced concrete buildings were designed, modeled and assessed for seismic vulnerability. The sample structures represent typical existing reinforced concrete hospital, school, public, and residential buildings in Izmir. The seismic assessments of the considered structures indicate that they are vulnerable to damage during expected future earthquakes.     

Seismic risk assessment of buildings in urban areas: a case study for Denizli,Turkey

This study aims to carry out a seismic risk assessment for a typical mid-size city based on building inventory from a field study. Contributions were made to existing loss estimation methods for buildings. In particular, a procedure was introduced to estimate the seismic quality of buildings using a scoring scheme for the effective parameters in seismic behavior. Denizli, a typical mid-size city in Turkey, was used as a case study. The building inventory was conducted by trained observers in a selected region of Denizli that had the potential to be damaged from expected future earthquakes according to geological and geotechnical studies. Parameters that are known to have some effect on the seismic performance of the buildings during past earthquakes were collected during the inventory studies. The inventory includes data of about 3,466 buildings on 4,226 parcels. The evaluation of inventory data provided information about the distribution of building stock according to structural system, construction year, and vertical and plan irregularities. The inventory data and the proposed procedure were used to assess the building damage, and to determine casualty and shelter needs during the M6.3 and 7.0 scenario earthquakes, representing the most probable and maximum earthquakes in Denizli, respectively. The damage assessment and loss studies showed that significant casualties and economic losses can be expected in future earthquakes. Seismic risk assessment of reinforced concrete buildings also revealed the priorities among building groups. The vulnerability in decreasing order is: (1) buildings with 6 or more stories, (2) pre-1975 constructed buildings, and (3) buildings with 3–5 stories. The future studies for evaluating and reducing seismic risk for buildings should follow this priority order. All data of inventory, damage, and loss estimates were assembled in a Geographical Information System (GIS) database.     

Estimating the vulnerability and loss functions of residential buildings

This paper is concerned with an investigation of the damage to residential buildings in two areas within Gilan and Zanjan provinces, Iran, caused by the Manjil-Rudbar earthquake of 20 June 1990. A statistical correlation between the observed ground motion and the damage to the residential buildings is derived for overall damaged buildings and expressed as the vulnerability function. The loss function is calculated by combining the seismic hazard with the vulnerability function.The study of vulnerability and annual seismic hazard shows that the specific annual risk for the range of motion of 0.18 to 0.5 g is equal to 0.02. This indicates that the specific risk for semi-engineered residential buildings with a lifetime of 20 years is about 33%. This study also shows that in large cities, such as Tehran, located in seismic areas, the extent of damage according to the vulnerability function will be 45 and 70% for expected maximum accelerations of 0.3 and 0.4 g, respectively.     

Physically based dynamic run-out modelling for quantitative debris flow risk assessment: a case study in Tresenda,northern Italy

Quantitative landslide risk assessment requires information about the temporal, spatial and intensity probability of hazardous processes both regarding their initiation as well as their run-out. This is followed by an estimation of the physical consequences inflicted by the hazard, preferentially quantified in monetary values. For that purpose, deterministic hazard modelling has to be coupled with information about the value of the elements at risk and their vulnerability. Dynamic run-out models for debris flows are able to determine physical outputs (extension, depths, velocities, impact pressures) and to determine the zones where the elements at risk can suffer an impact. These results can then be applied for vulnerability and risk calculations. Debris flow risk has been assessed in the area of Tresenda in the Valtellina Valley (Lombardy Region, northern Italy). Three quantitative hazard scenarios for different return periods were prepared using available rainfall and geotechnical data. The numerical model FLO-2D was applied for the simulation of the debris flow propagation. The modelled hazard scenarios were consequently overlaid with the elements at risk, represented as building footprints. The expected physical damage to the buildings was estimated using vulnerability functions based on flow depth and impact pressure. A qualitative correlation between physical vulnerability and human losses was also proposed. To assess the uncertainties inherent in the analysis, six risk curves were obtained based on the maximum, average and minimum values and direct economic losses to the buildings were estimated, in the range of 0.25–7.7 million €, depending on the hazard scenario and vulnerability curve used.     

Estimation of seismic hazard in Gujarat region, India

The seismic hazard in the Gujarat region has been evaluated. The scenario hazard maps showing the spatial distribution of various parameters like peak ground acceleration, characteristics site frequency and spectral acceleration for different periods have been presented. These parameters have been extracted from the simulated earthquake strong ground motions. The expected damage to buildings from future large earthquakes in Gujarat region has been estimated. It has been observed that the seismic hazard of Kachchh region is more in comparison with Saurashtra and mainland. All the cities of Kachchh can expect peak acceleration in excess of 500?cm/s² at surface in case of future large earthquakes from major faults in Kachchh region. The cities of Saurashtra can expect accelerations of less than 200?cm/s² at surface. The mainland Gujarat is having the lowest seismic hazard as compared with other two regions of Gujarat. The expected accelerations are less than 50?cm/s² at most of the places. The single- and double-story buildings in Kachchh region are at highest risk as they can expect large accelerations corresponding to natural periods of such small structures. Such structures are relatively safe in mainland region. The buildings of 3?C4 stories and tall structures that exist mostly in cities of Saurashtra and mainland can expect accelerations in excess of 100?cm/s² during a large earthquake in Kachchh region. It has been found that a total of 0.11 million buildings in Rajkot taluka of Saurashtra are vulnerable to total damage. In Kachchh region, 0.37 million buildings are vulnerable. Most vulnerable talukas are Bhuj, Anjar, Rapar, Bhachau, and Mandvi in Kachchh district and Rajkot, Junagadh, Jamnagar, Surendernagar and Porbandar in Saurashtra. In mainland region, buildings in Bharuch taluka are more vulnerable due to proximity to active Narmada-Son geo-fracture. The scenario hazard maps presented in this study for moderate as well as large earthquakes in the region may be used to augment the information available in the probabilistic seismic hazard maps of the region.     

Hazard and risk assessment of earthquake-induced landslides—case study

Landslides as secondary seismic effects are causing some patterns of soil failure that are often considered among the most destructive ones. In fact, the impact from triggered landslides has sometimes exceeded damage directly related to strong shaking and fault rupture. The objective of this research study is landslide hazard and risk assessment considering different water saturation and earthquake scenarios, for a selected area in a sub-urban hilly part of Skopje—the capital of Macedonia. The final product is represented by digital maps of expected permanent displacements for a defined earthquake scenario, in different water saturation conditions of the instable soil layer. Qualitative landslide risk assessment is performed taking into consideration the exposure map of the habitants and local road of the area. As to the target area, it can be concluded that it has the potential for instability that, under certain scenarios, could result in economic and social damage (vulnerability of individual houses, vulnerability of infrastructure and alike). The results from this study referring to potentially affected population and infrastructure present solid base for preventive mitigation activities for reducing the consequences of geotechnical hazards in Skopje City associated with earthquakes.     

Ground motion studies for microzonation in Iran

An important step in effectively reducing seismic risk and the vulnerability of a city located in an earthquake prone area is to conduct a ground motion microzonation study for the desired return period. The International Institute of Earthquake Engineering and Seismology (IIEES) initiated a number of seismic microzonation projects for Iran. This paper presents the steps followed by IIEES in ground motion microzonation. IIEES performs both probabilistic and deterministic seismic hazard analysis. IIEES uses his own fault map for seismotectonic studies and develops modulus and damping curves for the soils in the study area. The experience of ground motion microzonation shows that in almost all cases, the estimated 475-year peak ground acceleration (PGA) values are higher than the PGA proposed by the Iranian seismic code. Although ground motion microzonation in Iran has some shortcomings, IIEES is making new improvement. This includes development in deterministic seismic hazard analysis, two-dimensional and three-dimensional modelling of basin and topographical effects, using microtremor measurements to find shear-wave velocity profiles in high-density urban areas and providing maps for spectral acceleration in the study area.     

A new hybrid procedure for the definition of seismic vulnerability in Mediterranean cross-border urban areas

Assessment of seismic vulnerability of urban areas provides fundamental information for activities of planning and management of emergencies. The main difficulty encountered when extending vulnerability evaluations to urban contexts is the definition of a framework of assessment appropriate for the specific characteristics of the site and providing reliable results with a reasonable duration of surveys and post-processing of data. The paper proposes a new procedure merging different typologies of information recognized on the territories investigated and for this reason called “hybrid.” Knowledge of historical events influencing urban evolution and analysis of recurrent building technologies are used to evaluate the vulnerability indexes of buildings and building stocks. On the other hand, a vulnerability model is calibrated by means of experimental and numerical investigations on prototype buildings representative of the most recurrent typologies. In the final framework, the vulnerability index, calculated through simplified assessment forms, is linked to the seismic intensity expressed by the peak ground acceleration and associated with an index of damage expressing the economical loss. The procedure has been tested on the urban center of Lampedusa island (Italy) providing as the output vulnerability index maps, vulnerability curves, critical PGA maps, and estimation of the economical damage associated with different earthquake scenarios. The application of the procedure can be suitably repeated for medium-to-small urban areas, typically recurring in the Mediterranean by carrying out each time a recalibration of the vulnerability model.

     

A new hybrid procedure for the definition of seismic vulnerability in Mediterranean cross-border urban areas

Assessment of seismic vulnerability of urban areas provides fundamental information for activities of planning and management of emergencies. The main difficulty encountered when extending vulnerability evaluations to urban contexts is the definition of a framework of assessment appropriate for the specific characteristics of the site and providing reliable results with a reasonable duration of surveys and post-processing of data. The paper proposes a new procedure merging different typologies of information recognized on the territories investigated and for this reason called “hybrid.” Knowledge of historical events influencing urban evolution and analysis of recurrent building technologies are used to evaluate the vulnerability indexes of buildings and building stocks. On the other hand, a vulnerability model is calibrated by means of experimental and numerical investigations on prototype buildings representative of the most recurrent typologies. In the final framework, the vulnerability index, calculated through simplified assessment forms, is linked to the seismic intensity expressed by the peak ground acceleration and associated with an index of damage expressing the economical loss. The procedure has been tested on the urban center of Lampedusa island (Italy) providing as the output vulnerability index maps, vulnerability curves, critical PGA maps, and estimation of the economical damage associated with different earthquake scenarios. The application of the procedure can be suitably repeated for medium-to-small urban areas, typically recurring in the Mediterranean by carrying out each time a recalibration of the vulnerability model.     

Comparative Seismic Risk Studies for German Earthquake Regions on the Basis of the European Macroseismic Scale EMS-98

Within the framework of recent research projects, basic tools for GIS-based seismic risk assessment technologies were developed and applied to the building stock and regional particularities of German earthquake regions. Two study areas are investigated, being comparable by the level of seismic hazard and the hazard-consistent scenario events (related to mean return periods of 475, 2475 and 10000 years). Significant differences exist with respect to the number of inhabitants, the grade and extent of urbanisation, the quality and quantity of building inventory: the case study of Schmölln in Eastern Thuringia seems to be representative for the majority of smaller towns in Germany, the case study of Cologne (Köln) stands for larger cities. Due to the similarities of hazard and scenario intensities, the considerable differences do not only require proper decisions concerning the appropriate methods and acceptable efforts, they enable conclusions about future research strategies and needs for disaster reduction management. Not least important, results can sharpen the focus of public interest. Seismic risk maps are prepared for different scenario intensities recognising the scatter and uncertainties of site-dependent ground motion and also of the applied vulnerability functions. The paper illustrates the impact of model assumptions and the step-wise refinements of input variables like site conditions, building stock or vulnerability functions on the distribution of expected building damage within the study areas. Furthermore, and in contrast to common research strategies, results support the conclusion that in the case of stronger earthquakes the damage will be of higher concentration within smaller cities like Schmölln due to the site-amplification potential and/or the increased vulnerability of the building stock. The extent of damage will be pronounced by the large number of masonry buildings for which lower vulnerability classes have to be assigned. Due to the effect of deep sedimentary layers and the composition of building types, the urban centre of Cologne will be less affected by an earthquake of comparable intensity.     

Seismic risk analysis of urban non-engineered buildings: application to an informal settlement in Mérida,Venezuela

Seismic risk scenarios are obtained for an informal settlement in Mérida (Venezuela), which is representative of an important number of urban areas in earthquake-prone regions of the developing world. The vulnerability indices of the buildings range between 0.64 and 0.80 on a scale of 0 to 1. In an intensity IX earthquake scenario, more than 32% of the buildings would suffer damage of grade 4 (extensive) or greater. A structural analysis of the buildings in the study area shows that they are unsafe for gravity loads, and that the seismic demands exceed the strength of the constructions. Simple and comparatively inexpensive measures can improve the seismic performance of these buildings; the vulnerability can be reduced by about 51%. In an intensity IX earthquake scenario, the expected economic loss before retrofitting the buildings is US5.36 million, with 275 fatalities; once retrofit has been carried out, the resulting figures are US5.36 million, with 275 fatalities; once retrofit has been carried out, the resulting figures are US0.39 million and 10 fatalities. Retrofit would cost US1.04 million, whereas reconstruction would cost US1.04 million, whereas reconstruction would cost US19 million.     

Assessment of seismic risk scenarios for Bucharest,Romania

In this paper, seismic risk scenarios for Bucharest, the capital city of Romania, are proposed and assessed. Bucharest has one of the highest seismic risk levels in Europe, and this is due to a combination of relatively high seismic hazard and a building stock built mainly before the devastating Vrancea 1977 earthquake. In this study, the seismic risk of Bucharest is assessed using the most recent information regarding the characteristics of the residential building stock. The ground motion amplitudes are evaluated starting from random fields obtained by coupling a ground motion model derived for the Vrancea intermediate-depth seismic source with a spatial correlation model. The seismic risk evaluation method applied in this study is based on the well-known macroseismic method. For several structural typologies, the vulnerability parameters are evaluated based on a damage survey performed on 18,000 buildings in Bucharest after the March 1977 earthquake. Subsequently, the risk metrics are compared with those from other studies in the literature that apply a different risk assessment methodology in order to gain a better view of the uncertainties associated with a seismic risk study at city level. Finally, the impact of several Vrancea intermediate-depth earthquake scenarios is evaluated and the results show that the earthquake which has the closest epicenter to Bucharest appears to be the most damaging.

     

Assessment of seismic risk scenarios for Bucharest,Romania

In this paper, seismic risk scenarios for Bucharest, the capital city of Romania, are proposed and assessed. Bucharest has one of the highest seismic risk levels in Europe, and this is due to a combination of relatively high seismic hazard and a building stock built mainly before the devastating Vrancea 1977 earthquake. In this study, the seismic risk of Bucharest is assessed using the most recent information regarding the characteristics of the residential building stock. The ground motion amplitudes are evaluated starting from random fields obtained by coupling a ground motion model derived for the Vrancea intermediate-depth seismic source with a spatial correlation model. The seismic risk evaluation method applied in this study is based on the well-known macroseismic method. For several structural typologies, the vulnerability parameters are evaluated based on a damage survey performed on 18,000 buildings in Bucharest after the March 1977 earthquake. Subsequently, the risk metrics are compared with those from other studies in the literature that apply a different risk assessment methodology in order to gain a better view of the uncertainties associated with a seismic risk study at city level. Finally, the impact of several Vrancea intermediate-depth earthquake scenarios is evaluated and the results show that the earthquake which has the closest epicenter to Bucharest appears to be the most damaging.     

Probabilistic earthquake risk assessment using CAPRA: application to the city of Barcelona, Spain

The risk evaluation model CAPRA (Comprehensive Approach to Probabilistic Risk Assessment) is a techno-scientific methodology and information platform, composed of tools for evaluating and communicating risk at various territorial levels. The model allows evaluating losses on exposed elements using probabilistic metrics, such as the loss exceedance curve, the expected annual loss and the probable maximum loss, useful for multi-hazard risk analyses. In this article, the process of probabilistic seismic risk analysis is described, explaining the main features of the CAPRA modules of hazard, vulnerability and risk estimation applied to the city of Barcelona, Spain. In addition, according to the physical risk results and the information on the socioeconomic indicators of the city, this article presents the holistic evaluation of seismic risk, which is a valuable result to facilitate the integrated risk management by the different stakeholders involved in risk reduction decision making.     

Deterministic and probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for Gwadar City, Pakistan

Gwadar City is located at the coastline of Pakistan. The city is currently in a phase of development, which is expected to become a future economic hub for Pakistan. This has led us to choose Gwadar for seismic hazard evaluation. Seismic hazard analysis for Gwadar is carried out using deterministic and probabilistic seismic hazard analysis techniques. The present study will help in sustainable development of a future large city and economic hub for Pakistan on ways of coping from a major threat of earthquake hazard. In deterministic seismic hazard analysis, line sources were identified close to Gwadar. Based on the analysis of maximum magnitude and closest distance (worse conditions), Makran subduction zone was identified out of all the line sources with earthquake potential of 8.2 at a distance of 30 km. This yielded a peak ground acceleration value of 0.38 g for Gwadar City. In second phase, probabilistic seismic hazard analysis technique with the area source modeling was adopted to acquire results at different return periods. For this purpose, seismic data were collected from the Pakistan Meteorological Department and International Seismological Center (2010) databases for development of a comprehensive data catalog. The a and b values were obtained using regression analysis for each source zone, and probabilistic analysis yielded the results of 0.34 g for a return period of 500 years. As per building codes of Pakistan, areas or cities with ground acceleration greater than 0.32 g are considered in seismic zone 4, and both deterministic and probabilistic hazard analysis place the city in seismic zone 4. These values correspond to rock site with shear wave velocity of 760 m/s.     

Seismic Hazard and Risk Assessment for Tulbagh,South Africa: Part II – Assessment of Seismic Risk

This is the second part of our study on the assessment of seismic hazard and seismic risk for Tulbagh, the settlement, located about 90 km N-E from Cape Town, where the strongest and most damaging earthquake known in the existing earthquake history of South Africa took place. This part of our study, which can be read independently from Part I, concentrates on the probabilistic seismic risk analysis (PSRA) forTulbagh. The work begins with an introduction and a historical perspective on the estimation of seismic damage to buildings. The methodology for the estimation of expected damage from a probabilistic point of view is then presented. The work closes with an application of the described methodology to a site in the vicinity of Tulbagh.     

Experimental vulnerability curves for the residential buildings of Iran

Iran is one of the most seismically active countries of the world located on the Alpine-Himalayan earthquake belt. More than 180,000 people were killed due to earthquakes in Iran during the last five decades. Considering the fact that most Iranians live in masonry and non-engineered houses, having a comprehensive program for decreasing the vulnerability of society holds considerable importance. For this reason, loss estimation should be done before an earthquake strikes to prepare proper information for designing and selection of emergency plans and the retrofitting strategies prior to occurrence of earthquake. The loss estimation process consists of two principal steps of hazard analysis and vulnerability assessment. After identifying the earthquake hazard, the first step is to evaluate the vulnerability of residential buildings and lifelines and also the social and economic impacts of the earthquake scenarios. Among these, residential buildings have specific importance, because their destruction will disturb the daily life and result in casualties. Consequently, the vulnerability assessment of the buildings in Iran is important to identify the weak points in the built environment structure. The aim of this research is to prepare vulnerability curves for the residential buildings of Iran to provide a proper base for estimating probable damage features by future earthquakes. The estimation may contribute fundamentally for better seismic performance of Iranian societies. After a brief review of the vulnerability assessment methods in Iran and other countries, through the use of the European Macroseismic method, a model for evaluating the vulnerability of the Iranian buildings is proposed. This method allows the vulnerability assessment for numerous sets of buildings by defining the vulnerability curves for each building type based on the damage observations of previous earthquakes. For defining the vulnerability curves, a building typology classification is presented in this article, which is representative of Iranian building characteristics. The hazard is described in terms of the macroseismic intensity and the EMS-98 damage grades have been considered for classifying the physical damage to the buildings. The calculated vulnerability indexes and vulnerability curves show that for engineered houses there is not any notable difference between the vulnerability of Iranian and Risk-UE building types. For the non-engineered houses, the vulnerability index of brick and steel structures is less than the corresponding values of the other unreinforced masonry buildings of Iran. The vulnerability index of unreinforced and masonry buildings of Iran are larger than the values of the similar types in Risk-UE and so the Iranian buildings are more vulnerable in this regard.     

Deterministic assessment of seismic risk in Constantine city,Northeast Algeria

Northern Algeria has experienced many destructive earthquakes throughout its history. The largest recent events occurred in El Asnam on October 10, 1980 (moment magnitude; Mw = 7.3), in Constantine on October 27, 1985 (surface-wave magnitude; Ms = 6.0), and in Zemmouri–Boumerdes on May 21, 2003 (Mw = 6.8). Because of the high population density and industrialization in these regions, the earthquakes had disastrous consequences and hence highlighted the vulnerability of Algeria to seismic events. To reduce seismic risk in Constantine, the capital city of East Algeria, we present a seismic risk scenario for this city, focusing on the vulnerability of the key historic areas of Coudia, Bellevue–Ciloc, and the Old City. This scenario allows us to assess the maximum ground acceleration using empirical attenuation laws, based on the following considerations: (a) the 1985 Constantine seismic event as an earthquake reference; (b) site effects related to regional geology; (c) damage to buildings, and (d) seismic vulnerability. This study shows the map of peak ground acceleration taking into account the effects of site lithology (Avib). We observe the strongest vibrations along the two rivers “Boumerzoug and Rhumel” and also, we note that the EC8 gives a good estimate acceleration in the image of the three studied areas (Bellevue–Ciloc, Coudia, and Old Town). By correlating with the geology, we observe an acceleration of 0.13 g in the neritic limestone of the rock (Old Town) something that fits with the value obtained 0.14 g (PGA) without taking into consideration the lithology. Moreover, according to the Algerian Earthquake Engineering Code (2003) (RPA), the Wilaya of Constantine is classified in the zone IIa (medium seismicity) with an acceleration data of 0.25 g. This study integrates geographic information system (GIS) data into risk models.