中国北方农牧交错地区农牧业生产模型及应用:Ⅰ.模型

 农牧交错区的农牧业生产系统是一个受到社会、经济和自然因素影响的复杂系统,对其模型化需要建立分层系列模型。以农业经济学和土地资源学研究成果为基础,结合风沙科学研究的有关结论以及深入的综合分析,得到了一套包含25个基本变量的农牧业生产数学模型。次一级的模型包括有效劳动模型、固定资本模型、生产费用模型和土地生产潜力模型。在土地生产潜力模型中专门考虑了土地利用类型及沙漠化程度的影响,以确保模型的适用性。基于这套模型可以对农牧业生产的诸多特征进行较为全面的分析。     

山体效应对北半球林线分布的影响(英文)

Alpine timberline, as the "ecological transition zone," has long attracted the attention of scientists in many fields, especially in recent years. Many unitary and dibasic fitting models have been developed to explore the relationship between timberline elevation and latitude or temperature. However, these models are usually on regional scale and could not be applied to other regions; on the other hand, hemispherical-scale and continental-scale models are usually based on about 100 timberline data and are necessarily low in precision. The present article collects 516 data sites of timberline, and takes latitude, continentality and mass elevation effect(MEE) as independent variables and timberline elevation as dependent variable to develop a ternary linear regression model. Continentality is calculated using the meteorological data released by WorldClim and mountain base elevation(as a proxy of mass elevation effect) is extracted on the basis of SRTM 90-meter resolution elevation data. The results show that the coefficient of determination(R2) of the linear model is as high as 0.904, and that the contribution rate of latitude, continentality and MEE to timberline elevation is 45.02%(p=0.000), 6.04%(p=0.000) and 48.94%(p=0.000), respectively. This means that MEE is simply the primary factor contributing to the elevation distribution of timberline on the continental and hemispherical scales. The contribution rate of MEE to timberline altitude differs in different regions, e.g., 50.49%(p=0.000) in North America, 48.73%(p=0.000) in the eastern Eurasia, and 43.6%(p=0.000) in the western Eurasia, but it is usually very high.     

A study of the contribution of mass elevation effect to the altitudinal distribution of timberline in the Northern Hemisphere简

Alpine timberline, as the ＂ecologica tion of scientists in many fields, especially in transition zone,＂ has long attracted the atten- recent years. Many unitary and dibasic fitting models have been developed to explore the relationship between timberline elevation and latitude or temperature. However, these models are usually on regional scale and could not be applied to other regions; on the other hand, hemispherical-scale and continental-scale models are usually based on about 100 timberline data and are necessarily low in precision. The present article collects 516 data sites of timberline, and takes latitude, continentality and mass elevation effect （MEE） as independent variables and timberline elevation as dependent variable to develop a ternary linear regression meteorological data released by WorldClim and model. Continentality is calculated using the mountain base elevation （as a proxy of mass elevation effect） is extracted on the basis of SRTM 90-meter resolution elevation data. The results show that the coefficient of determination （R2） of the linear model is as high as 0.904, and that the contribution rate of latitude, continentality and MEE to timberline elevation is 45.02% （p=0.000）, 6.04% （p=0.000） and 48.94% （p=0.000）, respectively. This means that MEE is simply the primary factor contributing to the elevation distribution of timberline on the continental and hemispherical scales. The contribution rate of MEE to timberline altitude dif- fers in different regions, e.g., 50.49% （p=0.000） in North America, 48.73% （p=0.000） in the eastern Eurasia, and 43.6% （p=0.000） in the western Eurasia, but it is usually very high.     

基于土壤水分和气象要素的林火预报研究——以广东省为例

基于国内现行的森林火险气象指数和单因子火险贡献度模型,以及逻辑回归模型和随机森林模型,在林火预报中引入微波遥感土壤水分信息,使用MCD14DL火点数据集和地面气象观测资料对广东省不同时间尺度的林火发生概率进行预测。结果表明：逻辑回归模型和随机森林模型构建的林火预测模型显著优于现行的森林火险气象指数和单因子火险贡献度模型,预测精度提升约20%。其中,随机森林模型对林火频数的解释程度最高（两者相关系数为0.476）。此外,加入微波土壤水分信息后,相较原有的基于气象要素的林火预测模型,2种机器学习模型的预测精度均略有提升,体现了表层土壤水分信息在林火预报中的重要性。研究可为高效提取对地观测信息,以改进华南地区不同时间尺度的林火预报工作提供参考。     

A new tool for modeling dune field evolution based on an accessible, GUI version of the Werner dune model

Research into aeolian dune form and dynamics has benefited from simple and abstract cellular automata computer models. Many of these models are based upon a seminal framework proposed by Werner (1995). Unfortunately, most versions of this model are not publicly available or are not provided in a format that promotes widespread use. In our view, this hinders progress in linking model simulations to empirical data (and vice versa). To this end, we introduce an accessible, graphical user interface (GUI) version of the Werner model. The novelty of this contribution is that it provides a simple interface and detailed instructions that encourage widespread use and extension of the Werner dune model for research and training purposes. By lowering barriers for researchers to develop and test hypotheses about aeolian dune and dune field patterns, this release addresses recent calls to improve access to earth surface models.     

Modeling surficial sand and gravel deposits

Mineral-deposit models are an integral part of quantitative mineral-resource assessment. As the focus of mineral-deposit modeling has moved from metals to industrial minerals, procedure has been modified and may be sufficient to model surficial sand and gravel deposits. Sand and gravel models are needed to assess resource-supply analyses for planning future development and renewal of infrastructure. Successful modeling of sand and gravel deposits must address (1) deposit volumes and geometries, (2) sizes of fragments within the deposits, (3) physical characteristics of the material, and (4) chemical composition and chemical reactivity of the material. Several models of sand and gravel volumes and geometries have been prepared and suggest the following: Sand and gravel deposits in alluvial fans have a median volume of 35 million m³. Deposits in all other geologic settings have a median volume of 5.4 million m³, a median area of 120 ha, and a median thickness of 4 m. The area of a sand and gravel deposit can be predicted from volume using a regression model (log [area (ha)] =1.47+0.79 log [volume (million m³)]). In similar fashion, the volume of a sand and gravel deposit can be predicted from area using the regression (log [volume (million m³)]=–1.45+1.07 log [area (ha)]). Classifying deposits by fragment size can be done using models of the percentage of sand, gravel, and silt within deposits. A classification scheme based on fragment size is sufficiently general to be applied anywhere.     

植物化感作用在血吸虫病防治中的应用

对抑螺植物的化感物质、化感作用、抑螺植物的标准进行了系统的阐述,对植物化感作用在血吸虫病防治中的研究情况进行了简要介绍,并重点对抑螺植物化感作用在血吸虫病防治上的应用技术进行了研讨,研究结果对植物化感作用在血吸虫病防治中的应用将具有积极的指导和推动作用。     

黄河中游多沙粗沙区流域坡面水保措施变化特征

选用Landsat TM、环境星CCD、SPOT4 和资源三号卫星影像等多源地学数据,通过人机交互式解译和修订土地利用与梯田数据,提出用相邻图幅递进回归分析法消除NDVI时相差异后反演植被盖度,构建起退耕还林还草面积比例、植被盖度均值变化量和有效梯田累计保存面积比例3 个坡面特征变化指示参数后,运用综合聚类分析和多要素贡献率模型研究黄河中游多沙粗沙区的流域坡面水保措施变化特征。结果表明：（1） 1998-2010 年间研究区内流域坡面水保措施变化显著,平均退耕还林还草面积比例为5.55%,平均林草植被盖度均值增加20.63%,平均有效梯田累计保存面积比例达6.25%;（2） 多要素水保措施变化共同作用下的流域坡面变化特征主要有7 种类型,即植被盖度变化主导型、植被—土地变化主导型、土地—植被变化主导型、植被—梯田变化主导型、梯田—植被变化主导型、梯田面积变化主导型和多要素变化共同主导型;（3） 不同类型的空间分布存在一定的地貌背景差异,后续研究应结合流域坡面变化特征及其地貌格局来优化配置水保措施,并合理估计水沙模型模拟的敏感性参数。     

基于地理探测器的区域土壤耕层有机碳含量 多元复合模型构建——以珠三角核心区为例

区域土壤耕层有机碳含量的精确测算,对于研究全球碳循环至关重要,但其影响因素多,空间变异性强,现有插值测算方法精度偏低。从提高测算精度出发,基于地理探测器技术,改进传统的协同克里格插值方法,构建多元复合模型进行区域土壤耕层有机碳含量的测算,并以珠三角核心区为例进行实际验证。结果表明：1）珠三角核心区土壤耕层有机碳含量空间变异与地形、水文、土壤和农田利用方式等有关,不同因素的贡献力存在较大差异,各因素贡献力（q统计量）在0.076~0.201之间,其中土壤理化性状与农田利用方式的贡献力大于地形、水文,区别不同因素的贡献力进行土壤耕层有机碳含量的精确测算应是客观要求。2）依照地理探测器分析结果,基于不同因素贡献力构建土壤耕层有机碳含量多元复合模型,插值测算精度明显提升,在珠三角核心区普通克里格、地理加权回归克里格和BP神经网络克里格的土壤耕层有机碳含量插值结果精度较多元复合模型下降16.62%、23.86%和37.33% 。由结果发现,多元复合模型突破了现有算法中辅助因素数量的局限,有效抑制了区域SOCC测算过程中的影响因素耦合噪声,降低了测算结果的不确定性。     

Classification of Soil Groups Using Weights-of-Evidence-Method and RBFLN-Neural Nets

Weights-of-Evidence (WofE) and Radial Basis Function Link Net (RBFLN) were applied to soil group mapping in eastern Finland. The data consisted of low altitude airborne geophysical measurements, Landsat 5 TM-satellite image, and digital elevation model (DEM) and slope information derived from it. Probability maps were constructed for each soil group one by one and combined into a prediction map of soil groups using maximum posterior probability (WofE) or pattern membership (RBFLN). Self-Organizing Map (SOM) and Sammon’s Mapping were applied for selecting the data sets for modeling and visualizing the data. The soil types belonging to each soil group used in the Arc-SDM modeling were defined by clusters revealed by the SOM and Sammon’s Mapping algorithms. The soil types with similar characters were collected in the same cluster. Numerical evaluation of the models’ performance was performed using the confusion matrix. The Ratio of Correct Classifications (RCC) for the best WofE model was 0.64 in the training area and 0.61 in the testing area. The RCC for the best RBFLN model was 0.62. Modeling of soil groups using Arc-SDM is time consuming because models need to be constructed for each soil group before combining them into a final prediction map. In this study a simple method was tested for combining the maps. In the future, more attention should be paid to combining the posterior probability models and also to selecting data sets used for modeling.     

基于GIS的洪水灾害风险区划研究

洪水灾害区划是洪灾评估与管理的重要内容,本文在分析洪灾形成的各主要因子的基础上,提出了基于地理信息系统的洪灾风险区划指标模型,并结合辽河流域具体情况,以降雨、地形和区域社会经济易损为主要指标,得出了辽河流域洪灾风险综合区别。     

基团贡献法计算水合硼酸盐的热力学性质

硼酸盐是一类分布于自然界和可在实验室中合成的无机化合物,它们具有多种结构类型,是性能优良的特性材料。其物理化学性质特别是热力学性质在科研和工业应用中具有重要地位。在实验结果的基础上,作者提出了关联和预测水合硼酸盐热力学性质的方程。根据结构类型,一种水合硼酸盐的热力学性质是水溶液中阳离子、硼酸盐多聚配阴离子和结构水分子相应热力学性质之和。该方法可称为基团贡献法,它广泛用于计算各种无机化合物的热力学性质,如硅酸盐、粘土矿物等。     

Pitzer理论在变温高浓卤水体系地球化学平衡研究中的应用

在描述和计算多组分高浓电解质溶液化学平衡方面 ,Pitzer理论及其半经验方程体系是迄今为止最有成效的成果。后继研究者以Pitzer理论为基础 ,建立了较有代表性的HW模型、HMW模型以及SMW模型。针对察尔汗盐湖实际情况 ,作者选择SMW模型并自行开发出计算程序 ,通过溶解驱动开采固体钾矿的室内试验所用溶剂的化学平衡计算 ,分析了各溶剂的溶矿能力 ,提出溶剂中光卤石不饱和是其溶解固相钾矿的关键所在 ,综合利用钾肥厂尾液和盐田老卤作为溶解驱动固体钾矿的溶剂在理论上是可行的     

An integrated TIN and Grid method for constructing multi‐resolution digital terrain models

Multi‐resolution terrain models are an efficient approach to improve the speed of three‐dimensional (3D) visualizations, especially for terrain visualization in Geographical Information Systems (GIS). As a further development to existing algorithms and models, a new model is proposed for the construction of multi‐resolution terrain models in a 3D GIS. The new model represents multi‐resolution terrains using two major methods for terrain representation: Triangulated Irregular Network (TIN) and regular grid (Grid). In this paper, first, the concepts and formal definitions of the new model are presented. Second, the methodology for constructing multi‐resolution terrain models based on the new model is proposed. Third, the error of multi‐resolution terrain models is analysed, and a set of rules is proposed to retain the important features (e.g. boundaries of man‐made objects) within the multi‐resolution terrain models. Finally, several experiments are undertaken to test the performance of the new model. The experimental results demonstrate that the new model can be applied to construct multi‐resolution terrain models with good performance in terms of time cost and maintenance of the important features. Furthermore, a comparison with previous algorithms/models shows that the speed of rendering for 3D walking/flying through has been greatly improved by applying the new model.     

An initial formal model for spatial data infrastructures

The Commission on Spatial Data Standards of the International Cartographic Association is working to define formal models and technical characteristics of Spatial Data Infrastructures (SDI). To date, this work has been restricted to the Enterprise and Information Viewpoints from the ISO Reference Model for Open Distributed Processing standard. The Commission has developed models for these two viewpoints. These models describe how the different parts of an SDI fit together in the viewpoints in question. These models should be seen as a contribution towards the overall model of the SDI and its technical characteristics. During the model development process, the roles of the different Actors in an SDI in the Enterprise and Information Viewpoints have also been identified in Use Case diagrams of an SDI. All the models have been developed using the Unified Modeling Language.     

不同树种叶片养分含量提取的高光谱方法及精度评价

以深圳市坝光银叶园和大鹏半岛自然保护区19种湿地森林树种叶片可见光近红外光谱与全氮（Total Nitrogen, TN）、全磷（Total Phosphorus, TP）、全钾（Total Potassium, TK）含量关系为基础,分析了11种光谱预处理方式、3种光谱数据降维方式和2种建模方法对模型精度的影响。结果表明,标准正态变换（Standard Normal Variate, SNV）结合一阶导数（first derivative, 1 ^st）预处理方式下模型精度最高;主成分分析（Principal Component Analysis, PCA）降维处理对模型的降维效果最好;支持向量回归（Support Vector Regression, SVR）的建模效果精度最高。对于TN、TP、TK最佳模型的预测确定系数均在0.80以上,模型RPD值也在2.0以上,SVR模型可以用于树种叶片TN、TP、TK的快速检测。     

基于粗集的知识发现与地理模拟——以深圳市土地利用变化为例

为了更有效地模拟地理现象的复杂演变过程,提出了用粗集理论来确定元胞自动机 (CA)不确定性转换规则的新方法。CA可以通过局部规则来有效地模拟许多地理现象的演变过程。但目前缺乏很好定义CA转换规则的方法。往往采用启发式的方法来定义CA的转换规则,这些转换规则是静态的,而且其参数值多是确定的。在反映诸如城市扩张、疾病扩散等不确定性复杂现象时,具有一定的局限性。利用粗集从GIS和遥感数据中发现知识,自动寻找CA的不确定性转换规则,基于粗集的CA在缩短建模时间的同时,能提取非确定性的转换规则,更好地反映复杂系统的特点。采用所提出的方法模拟了深圳市的城市发展过程,取得了比传统MCE方法更好的模拟效果。     

切片采样算法在光释光年龄模型参数估计中的应用

光释光(OSL)年代学模型是基于数理统计学的一类概率密度模型,它根据特定的假设条件对样品等效剂量(De)分布进行数学解释,由此估计具有不同沉积历史或者能够代表样品实际埋藏年龄的De组分。年龄模型参数估计常通过极大似然估计(MLE)算法实现,本文尝试了切片采样算法在年龄模型参数优化中的应用。切片采样属于一种马尔科夫链蒙特卡罗采样(MCMC)算法,能根据测量数据与模型的联合似然函数进行随机采样,由此获得参数的采样分布。本文编写了实现年龄模型切片采样算法的应用程序,并使用模拟及实测De数据验证了该算法估计的可靠性。相对于MLE算法,MCMC算法具有对参数初值依赖性低、误差估计更准确的特点,切片采样算法提供了实现释光年龄模型参数估计的一种新方法。     

RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN MULTIVARIATE CALIBRATION

With the goal of understanding global chemical processes,environmental chemists have some of the mostcomplex sample analysis problems.Multivariate calibration is a tool that can be applied successfully inmany situations where traditional univariate analyses cannot.The purpose of this paper is to reviewmultivariate calibration,with an emphasis being placed on the developments in recent years.The inverseand classical models are discussed briefly,with the main emphasis on the biased calibration methods.Principal component regression(PCR)and partial least squares(PLS)are discussed,along with methodsfor quantitative and qualitative validation of the calibration models.Non-linear PCR,non-linear PLSand locally weighted regression are presented as calibration methods for non-linear data.Finally,calibration techniques using a matrix of data per sample(second-order calibration)are discussed briefly.