An assessment of measures of storminess: simulated changes in northern hemisphere winter due to increasing CO2

Two methods for identifying mid-latitude synoptic time scale variability have been applied to data from the first United Kingdom Meteorological Office (UKMO) coupled ocean-atmosphere model experiments with present day and gradually increasing CO₂ concentrations. In the first the standard deviation of the time filtered mean sea level pressure field is taken to identify the location of the storm track and in the second individual cyclones are identified using synoptic criteria. The results have been compared with data from a 10 year archive of UKMO analysis. In the enhanced CO₂ experiment the changes in storminess identified by the two methods have been compared with changes in mean and maximum winds with special emphasis on the North Atlantic. The relative utility of the different measures for predicting potentially damaging synoptic events is discussed. Received: 3 May 1995 / Accepted: 7 November 1995     

An assessment of measures of storminess: Simulated changes in northern hemisphere winter due to increasing CO2

Two methods for identifying mid-latitude synoptic time scale variability have been applied to data from the first United Kingdom Meteorological Office (UKMO) coupled ocean-atmosphere model experiments with present day and gradually increasing CO₂ concentrations. In the first the standard deviation of the time filtered mean sea level pressure field is taken to identify the location of the storm track and in the second individual cyclones are identified using synoptic criteria. The results have been compared with data from a 10 year archive of UKMO analysis. In the enhanced CO₂ experiment the changes in storminess identified by the two methods have been compared with changes in mean and maximum winds with special emphasis on the North Atlantic. The relative utility of the different measures for predicting potentially damaging synoptic events is discussed.     

Northward flux of zonal velocity due to quasi-stationary and nonstationary waves in the atmosphere during northern hemisphere winter

The zonal wind velocity flux induced by wave motions in the central month of winter (January) is studied from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and the general circulation model (GCM) of the Institute of Numerical Mathematics of the Russian Academy of Sciences (INM RAS). It is shown that the model describes stationary wave processes with a sufficient accuracy and captures their synoptic period.     

模拟温室效应对我国气候变化的影响

利用5个全球大气海洋海冰模式,模拟了大气中二氧化碳浓度的增加对我国冬季与夏季地面气温、降水率及土壤湿度的影响。结果表明,由于温室效应,我国冬、夏季气温增暖,降水率与土壤湿度也有明显变化。     

The role of precipitation in aerosol-induced changes in northern hemisphere wintertime stationary waves

The coupled climate model EC-Earth2 is used to investigate the impact of direct radiative effects of aerosols on stationary waves in the northern hemisphere wintertime circulation. The direct effect of aerosols is simulated by introducing prescribed mixing ratios of different aerosol compounds representing pre-industrial and present-day conditions, no indirect effects are included. In the EC-Earth2 results, the surface temperature response is uncorrelated with the highly asymmetric aerosol radiative forcing pattern. Instead, the anomalous extratropical temperature field bears a strong resemblance to the aerosol-induced changes in the stationary-wave pattern. It is demonstrated that the main features of the wave pattern of EC-Earth2 can be replicated by a linear, baroclinic model forced with latent heat changes corresponding to the anomalous convective precipitation generated by EC-Earth2. The tropical latent heat release is an effective means of generating stationary wave trains that propagate into the extratropics. Hence, the results of the present study indicate that aerosol-induced convective precipitation anomalies govern the extratropical wave-field changes, and that the far-field temperature response dominates over local effects of aerosol radiative forcing.     

The simulated response of lakes to changes in annual and seasonal precipitation: implication for Holocene lake-level changes in northern Europe

Experiments with a coupled lake-catchment model show that lakes in temperate humid climates are highly sensitive to changes in both mean annual and seasonal precipitation. Simulations of three lakes from northern Europe (Lake Bysjön, Sweden; Lakes Karujärv and Viljandi, Estonia) show that lake level is more sensitive to decreases than to increases in precipitation. Increased precipitation results in increased runoff, but this is largely compensated by increased outflow and the change in lake level is small. Reductions in winter (November-April) precipitation have a bigger impact on simulated lake level than changes in summer (May-October) precipitation. Evapotranspiration is highly sensitive to reduction in precipitation, particularly in summer, but relatively insensitive to increased precipitation. Runoff decreases more rapidly with a decrease in winter precipitation and increased precipitation will linearly increase runoff. To match observed lake-level changes at Lake Bysjön at 9000 and 6000?y. BP (ca 6–7?m and 4–5?m lower than present respectively), without changing other climate parameters, would require a decrease in annual precipitation of about 400–500?mm and 350–400?mm respectively. The same changes in lake level could be produced by decreasing precipitation in winter precipitation by about –200?mm and about ?175?mm respectively. The simulations suggest that a lake, which is large relative to its catchment, is more likely to register lake-level changes caused by changes in climate.     

Integrated assessment of changes in flooding probabilities due to climate change

An approach to considering changes in flooding probability in the integrated assessment of climate change is introduced. A reduced-form hydrological model for flood prediction and a downscaling approach suitable for integrated assessment modeling are presented. Based on these components, the fraction of world population living in river basins affected by changes in flooding probability in the course of climate change is determined. This is then used as a climate impact response function in order to derive emission corridors limiting the population affected. This approach illustrates the consideration of probabilistic impacts within the framework of the tolerable windows approach. Based on the change in global mean temperature, as calculated by the simple climate models used in integrated assessment, spatially resolved changes in climatic variables are determined using pattern scaling, while natural variability in these variables is considered using twentieth century deviations from the climatology. Driven by the spatially resolved climate change, the hydrological model then aggregates these changes to river basin scale. The hydrological model is subjected to a sensitivity analysis with regard to the water balance, and the uncertainty arising through the different projections of changes in mean climate by differing climate models is considered by presenting results based on different models. The results suggest that up to 20% of world population live in river basins that might inevitably be affected by increased flood events in the course of global warming, depending on the climate model used to estimate the regional distribution of changes in climate. This article is dedicated to the memory of the late Gerhard Petschel-Held. He was an inspiring colleague, as well as a good friend. His sudden departure leaves me deeply shocked, and I am sure he will sorely be missed by all who had the pleasure of meeting him. Thomas Kleinen     

One possible mechanism for the principal mode of atmospheric low— frequency variability in the northern hemisphere winter

With the specified basic flow in the Northern Hemisphere winter, a study is made of the structure characteristics and mechanism of the principal mode of atmospheric low-frequency variability in terms of a linear barotropic model. Statistical and dynamical analyses of the model results indicate that the mode and the related dominant-forcing excitation zone are featured by evident spatial distribution and that the mechanism responsible for the mode bears re-lation to the zonal asymmetry of the basic flow and the associated barotropic energy conversion.     

Simulated impacts of historical land cover changes on global climate in northern winter

This ten-year general circulation model experiment compared a simulation where land surface boundary conditions were represented by observed, present day land cover to a simulation where the surface was represented by natural, potential land cover conditions. As a result of these estimated changes in historical land cover, significant temperature and hydrology changes affected tropical land surfaces, where some of the largest historical disruptions in total vegetation biomass have occurred. Also of considerable interest because of their broad scope and magnitude were changes in high-latitude Northern Hemisphere winter climate which resulted from changes in tropical convection, upper-level tropical outflow, and the generation of low-frequency tropical waves which propagated to the extratropics. These effects combined to move the Northern Hemisphere zonally averaged westerly jet to higher latitudes, broaden it, and reduce its maximum intensity. Low-level easterlies were also reduced over much of the tropical Pacific basin while positive anomalies in convective precipitation occurred in the central Pacific. Globally averaged changes were small. Comparisons of recent, observed trends in tropical and Northern Hemisphere, mid-latitude climate with these simulations suggests an interaction between the climatic effects of historical land cover changes and other modes of climate variability. Received: 8 September 1998 / Accepted: 31 July 1999     

一个适用于描述中国大陆冬季气温变化的东亚冬季风指数

利用1951年1月-2007年2月的NCEP V1格点资料和中国台站观测资料,定义了一个冬季风环流指数(IEAWM),并分析其与中国冬季气温和东亚大气环流变化的联系.结果表明该指数能够很好地反映东亚冬季风系统各成员的变化,兼顾北方和南方的环流状况和东西部热力差异的影响,改进了原有冬季风指数大多针对单一的冬季风环流成员及对中国冬季气温变化反映能力的不足,能够很好地反映中国冬季平均气温的异常变化.分析表明,当该指数为正值时东亚冬季风偏强,对应着地面西伯利亚高压和高空东亚大槽均偏强,东亚地区对流层中层的高-低纬度之间的纬向风经向切变加强,有利于中高纬度冷空气向南侵入,导致中国大陆地区气温偏低,反之亦然.IEAWM的年代际变化表明东亚冬季风在1985年之前偏强,1985年之后明显偏弱,这与1985年之后中国冬季变暖是一致的.     

Response of the Intensity of Subtropical High in the Northern Hemisphere to Solar Activity

Using the intensity data of each northern subtropical high measured by monthly 500 hPa height charts for the recent 38 years (1954-1991), we calculate their correlations with the monthly sunspot number and monthly solar radio flux at 10.7 cm wave length, respectively. Through strict test, we further confirm a series of high correlations. Next, using a method called the non-integer (year) wave, the significant response of each subtropical high’s intensity to so-lar activity at its main period of 10.9-year length is found. Special attention is paid to that of the eastern Pacific high, the possible mechanism of such sensible response is also analysed.     

Dynamics of the tropopause for the cases of sharp changes in total ozone at the midlatitudes of the northern hemisphere

Analysis is presented of height changes of the tropopause as approximated by the level of 3.5 pvu of vertical component of Ertel potential vorticity, for the cases of sharp (exceeding 100 DU per day) changes in total ozone (TO) on the basis of a special series of synchronous values of the tropopause characteristics and TO at the 1 × 1° grid within 30°–70°N latitude belt in 2009. Occurrence frequency of the cases is estimated depending on latitude and longitude. It is shown that sharp increase (decrease) in TO is unambiguously associated with decreasing (increasing) tropopause height, regardless of its oscillations during the day. Separate cases of sharp TO changes are studied, and changes in the tropopause characteristics are quantitatively specified.     

北半球冬季各阻塞系统对大范围极端温度异常的单独和协同影响

利用ERA5逐日再分析资料集,探究了冬季（12月至次年2月）大尺度阻塞与东亚寒潮的关系,发现近年来冬季大尺度阻塞与寒潮频次的年际相关有增强趋势,其中乌拉尔山大尺度阻塞与寒潮频次的年际相关最为显著,鄂霍次克海大尺度阻塞与寒潮频次的相关最弱。选取乌拉尔山和贝加尔湖区域大尺度阻塞后10 d内有寒潮爆发和无寒潮爆发的事件进一步统计分析,发现乌拉尔山区域发生大尺度阻塞时,阻塞后有（无）寒潮的事件在中高纬度行星波向平流层上传加强（减弱）,导致平流层极涡减弱（显著加强）。波活动响应的主要贡献来自于行星纬向1波。而（50°—70°N ,90°—110°E）位势高度在阻塞发生后逐渐加强（减弱）,最终导致寒潮爆发（未爆发）。贝加尔湖区域发生大尺度阻塞时的情况与乌拉尔山区域基本一致,但1990—2019年阻塞后有寒潮事件时行星纬向2波比纬向1波起更重要的作用。     

BCC_CSM对全球海表温度和混合层深度的模拟评估

为了定量评估北京气候中心(BCC)发展的BCC_CSM对当代全球海表温度和混合层深度的模拟能力,以WOA09(World Ocean Atlas 2009)观测资料作为检验模式的气候态实况场,提取包括BCC_CSM在内的CMIP5中的17个海气耦合模式的模拟结果,评估BCC_CSM模拟的全球海表温度和混合层深度的气候平均态并分析造成偏差的可能原因。结果表明:BCC_CSM模拟的海表温度在北半球中高纬的误差较大,而在其余纬度的模拟性能较佳。偏差的产生主要归因于海洋环流偏差。BCC_CSM模拟的最深混合层在北半球中高纬和南半球高纬地区的误差较大,同时这些区域也是多模式模拟差异最大的区域;其模拟的最浅混合层在南半球中高纬的偏差较大。冬季大西洋经向翻转环流的模拟在北大西洋下沉的位置偏南导致北半球高纬地区海表温度偏冷。由此认为包括BCC_CSM在内的许多海气耦合模式需重点改进对南、北半球深对流海域物理过程的描述,以提高气候预测的可信度。     

Determinants of corporate adaptation to climate change in winter tourism: An econometric analysis

While corporate adaptation strategies in response to climate change have been characterized, the determinants of adaptation have not been comprehensively analyzed. Knowledge of these determinants is particularly useful for policy makers to provide favorable conditions in support of corporate adaptation measures. Based on unique data from a survey of Swiss ski lift operators, this paper empirically examines such determinants at the business level. Our econometric analysis with linear regression and count data models finds a positive influence of the awareness of possible climate change effects on the scope of corporate adaptation. Surprisingly, no significant influence of the vulnerability to climate change effects on the scope of adaptation could be found. Finally, the dependency on the affected business and the ability to adapt influence the specific strategic directions of corporate adaptation.     

吉林省冬季燃煤民居室内CO污染监测分析

利用多功能无线电采集器在吉林省开展了冬季燃煤民居室内CO、CO₂、气温自动观测和室内外对比观测试验,分析了CO和CO₂浓度的变化特征及与用火规律、室内温度的关系。结果表明：吉林省冬季燃煤民居中普遍存在CO污染,60 %的民居出现浓度持续超过125mg·m^-3的高污染;CO浓度的逐月变化与燃煤量有关,日变化与用火过程、燃烧阶段和燃烧状态有关;在不同季节、不同城市、不同民居、不同室温以及不同燃烧过程中,CO在烟气中所占的比例不同;在点火、持续燃烧、压炉子和熄火等不同燃烧阶段及旺火燃烧、急倒烟和慢倒烟等不同燃烧状态下,CO浓度的变化特征有显著差异。     

Northern hemisphere atmospheric response to changes of atlantic ocean SST on decadal time scales: a GCM experiment

Analyses indicate that the Atlantic Ocean seasurface temperature (SST) was considerably colder at the beginning than in the middle of the century. In parallel, a systematic change in the North Atlantic sea-level pressure (SLP) pattern was observed. To find out whether the SST and SLP changes analyzed are consistent, which would indicate that the SST change was real and not an instrumental artifact, a response experiment with a low-resolution (T21) atmospheric GCM was performed. Two perpetual January simulations were conducted, which differ solely in the Atlantic Ocean (40° S-60° N) SST: the cold simulation utilizes the SSTs for the period 1904–1913; the warm simulation uses the SSTs for the period 1951–1960. Also, a control run with the model's standard SST somewhat between the cold and warm SST was made. For the response analysis, a rigorous statistical approach was taken. First, the null hypothesis of identical horizontal distributions was subjected to a multivariate significance test. Second, the level of recurrence was estimated. The multivariate statistical approaches are based on hierarchies of test models. We examined three different hierarchies: a scale-dependent hierarchy based on spherical harmonics (S), and two physically motivated ones, one based on the barotropic normal modes of the mean 300 hPa flow (B) and one based on the eigenmodes of the advection diffusion operator at 1000 hPa (A). The intercomparison of the cold and warm experiments indicates a signal in the geostrophic stream function that in the S-hierarchy is significantly nonzero and highly recurrent. In the A-hierarchy, the low level temperature field is identified as being significantly and recurrently affected by the altered SST distribution. The SLP signal is reasonably similar to the SLP change observed. Unexpectedly, the upper level stream-function signal does not appear to be significantly nonzero in the B-hierarchy. If, however, the pairs of experiments warm versus control and cold versus control are examined in the B-hierarchy, a highly significant and recurrent signal emerges. We conclude that the cold versus warm response is not a small disturbance that would allow the signal to be described by eigenmodes of the linear system. An analysis of the three-dimensional structure of the signal leads to the hypothesis that two different mechanisms are acting to modify the model's mean state. At low levels, local heating and advection are dominant, but at upper levels the extratropical signal is a remote responce to modifications of the tropical convection.This paper was presented at the International Conference on Modelling of Global Climate Change and Variability, held in Hamburg 11–15 September 1989 under the auspices of the Meteorological Institute of the University of Hamburg and the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology. Guest Editor for these papers is Dr. L. Dilmenil.AWI Publication no. 254     

贵州夏季旱涝与北半球500hPa大气环流特征

分析贵州32个测站1961～2003年降水资料,在0～85°N范围内,用36×16个网格点合成分析冬、春、夏季北半球500hPa平均高度场和距平场,结果表明,涝年夏季前期北半球西风带长波槽脊明显,副热带高压势力弱,旱年相反;旱涝年夏季前期距平场分布有明显差异,旱年前期冬季我国西部地区有负距平存在;同期旱年副热带高压势力比涝年强;在东亚地区同期旱年距平为-+-分布,涝年为正距平区.     

区域气候模式分辨率对中国夏季气温模拟影响的评估

为评估区域气候模式中分辨率对中国夏季气温模拟的影响,选用区域气候模式RegCM3,针对中国范围同一区域设置3种水平分辨率(30、60和90 km)和3种垂直分辨率(14、18和23层)就2000-2004年夏季地表气温进行模拟试验,采用模拟偏差、均方根误差、空间相关系数等多种参数,评估了气温模拟对分辨率的敏感性.结果表...