Statistical behavior of sunspot groups on the solar disk

In the present study we have produced a diagram of the latitude distribution of sunspot groups from the year 1874 through 1999 and examined statistical characteristics of the mean latitude of sunspot groups. The reliability of the observed data set prior to solar cycle 19 is found quite low as compared with that of the data set observed after cycle 19. A correlation is found between maximum latitude at which first sunspot groups of a new cycle appear and the maximum solar activity of the cycle. It is inferred that solar magnetic activity during the early part of an extended solar cycle may contain some information about the strength of forthcoming solar cycle. A formula is given to describe latitude change of sunspot groups with time during an extended solar cycle. The latitude-migration velocity is found to be largest at the beginning of solar cycle and decreases with time as the cycle progresses with a mean migration velocity of about 1.61° per year.     

Activity cycle of solar filaments

Long-term variation in the distribution of the solar filaments observed at the Observatorie de Paris, Section de Meudon from March 1919 to December 1989 is presented to compare with sunspot cycle and to study the periodicity in the filament activity, namely the periods of the coronal activity with the Morlet wavelet used. It is inferred that the activity cycle of solar filaments should have the same cycle length as sunspot cycle, but the cycle behavior of solar filaments is globally similar in profile with, but different in detail from, that of sunspot cycles. The amplitude of solar magnetic activity should not keep in phase with the complexity of solar magnetic activity. The possible periods in the filament activity are about 10.44 and 19.20 years. The wavelet local power spectrum of the period 10.44 years is statistically significant during the whole consideration time. The wavelet local power spectrum of the period 19.20 years is under the 95% confidence spectrum during the whole consideration time, but over the mean red-noise spectrum of α = 0.72 before approximate Carrington rotation number 1500, and after that the filament activity does not statistically show the period. Wavelet reconstruction indicates that the early data of the filament archive (in and before cycle 16) are more noiseful than the later (in and after cycle 17).     

An Early Prediction of the Amplitude of Solar Cycle 25

A “Solar Dynamo” (SODA) Index prediction of the amplitude of Solar Cycle 25 is described. The SODA Index combines values of the solar polar magnetic field and the solar spectral irradiance at 10.7 cm to create a precursor of future solar activity. The result is an envelope of solar activity that minimizes the 11-year period of the sunspot cycle. We show that the variation in time of the SODA Index is similar to several wavelet transforms of the solar spectral irradiance at 10.7 cm. Polar field predictions for Solar Cycles 21?–?24 are used to show the success of the polar field precursor in previous sunspot cycles. Using the present value of the SODA index, we estimate that the next cycle’s smoothed peak activity will be about \(140 \pm30\) solar flux units for the 10.7 cm radio flux and a Version 2 sunspot number of \(135 \pm25\). This suggests that Solar Cycle 25 will be comparable to Solar Cycle 24. The estimated peak is expected to occur near \(2025.2 \pm1.5\) year. Because the current approach uses data prior to solar minimum, these estimates may improve as the upcoming solar minimum draws closer.     

Reconstruction of Wolf Sunspot Numbers on the Basis of Spectral Characteristics and Estimates of Associated Radio Flux and Solar Wind Parameters for the Last Millennium

A reconstruction of sunspot numbers for the last 1000 years was obtained using a sum of sine waves derived from spectral analysis of the time series of sunspot number R _z for the period 1700–1999. The time series was decomposed in frequency levels using the wavelet transform, and an iterative regression model (ARIST) was used to identify the amplitude and phase of the main periodicities. The 1000-year reconstructed sunspot number reproduces well the great maximums and minimums in solar activity, identified in cosmonuclides variation records, and, specifically, the epochs of the Oort, Wolf, Spörer, Maunder, and Dalton Minimums as well the Medieval and Modern Maximums. The average sunspot number activity in each anomalous period was used in linear equations to obtain estimates of the solar radio flux F _10.7, solar wind velocity, and the southward component of the interplanetary magnetic field.     

太阳黑子数的子波分析

本文讨论了子波变换用于信号突变检测的原理，用它分析了１７００－１９９３年间的太阳黑子数的年均值．精确地检测到了太阳活动的突变点，用相邻两个突变点的时间长度求得了不同尺度下太阳黑子变化的周期．结果表明：利用子波变换检测太阳黑子周期与传统方法相比具有独到之处．     

On the Sudden Depression of Radio Emission From Plasma Above a Fast-Moving Sunspot

We present a very rare case of unexpected depression of radio emission above a sunspot using solar observations from RATAN-600. The sunspot had a very high proper motion on the solar surface. The depression lasted for 5 days without significant changes in area or magnitude of magnetic field of the associated sunspot. The observations show that the depression cannot be explained by the absorption of the emission during its propagation through the overlying magnetosphere of the AR or through the cold and opaque matter of a prominence. The theoretical interpretation of the phenomenon is based on the hypothesis that the motion of the sunspot on the photosphere leads to the significant expanding of the magnetic loop originated at this sunspot. The extension of the twisted magnetic rope results in the loss of equilibrium of the system: the closed magnetic structure (the twisted magnetic loop) seems destined to transform into an open one. The only mechanism of plasma heating which would be `switched off' in such a non-equilibrium configuration is that based on the quasi-static topological relaxation of a force-free magnetic field towards a configuration of minimum energy. Relaxation of magnetic fields does not occur in a non-equilibrium state. As a consequence, the energy release in the twisted magnetic rope and the temperature of the plasma of the local radio source have to fall down abruptly. Thus, the discussed phenomenon argues in favor of the relaxation model of plasma heating.     

Possible Influence of the 11-year Solar Cycle on Precipitation in Huashan Mountain of China over the Last 300 Years

Taking into account reconstructed precipitation time series in Huashan mountain area of China on the one hand and sunspot numbers observations on the other hand, the authors used here continuous wavelet transform and cross wavelet transform to investigate possible connection between the two sets of indicators. The analysis was performed over the last 300 years: it is found that solar activity influences precipitation in that geographical area of China to some extent, with an excess of 5% statistical significance level red noise over the 11-year solar activity cycle.     

Sunspot groups at high latitude

Data of sunspot groups at high latitude (35°), from the year 1874 to the present (2000 January), are collected to show their evolutional behaviour and to investigate features of the yearly number of sunspot groups at high latitude. Subsequently, an evolutional pattern of sunspot group number at high latitude is given in this paper. Results obtained show that the number of sunspot groups of a solar cycle at high latitude rises to a maximum value about 1 yr earlier than the time of the maximum of sunspot relative numbers of the solar cycle, and then falls to zero more rapidly. The results also show that, at the moment, solar activity described by the sunspot relative numbers has not yet reached its minimum. In general, sunspot groups at high latitude have not appeared on the solar disc during the last 3 yr of a Wolf solar cycle. The asymmetry of the high latitude sunspot group number of a Wolf solar cycle can reflect the asymmetry of solar activity in the Wolf solar cycle, and it is suggested that one could further use the high latitude sunspot group number during the rising time of a Wolf solar cycle, maximum year included, to judge the asymmetry of solar activity over the whole solar cycle.     

Influence of the solar activity on the Indian Monsoon rainfall

We use 130 years data for studying correlative effects due to solar cycle and activity phenomena on the occurrence of the Indian Monsoon rainfall. We compute the correlation coefficients and significance of correlation coefficients for the seasonal and the annual data. We find that: (i) for the whole years 1871–2000, the spring and southwest monsoon rainfall variabilities have significant positive correlations with the sunspot activity during the corresponding period, (ii) the FFT and the wavelet analyses of the southwest monsoon rainfall variability show the periods 2.7, 16 and 22 year, respectively (similar to the periods found in sunspot occurrence data) and, (iii) there is a long-term trend indicating a gradual decrease of occurrence of rainfall variability by nearly 2.3 ± 1.3 mm/year and increase of sunspot activity by nearly 3.9 ± 1.5 sunspots/year compared to the activity of previous solar cycle.

We speculate in this study a possible physical connection between the occurrence of the rainfall variability and the sunspot activity, and the flux of galactic cosmic rays. Owing to long-term positive and significant correlation of the spring and southwest monsoon rainfall variabilities with the sunspot activity, it is suggested that solar activity may be included as one of the crucial parameter in modeling and predicting the Indian monsoon rainfall.     

太阳活动周期的小波分析

运用小波技术对太阳射电流量2800 MHz,太阳黑子数和太阳黑子面积数周期进行分析．其结果表明: (1)这3个系列的数据显示最显著的周期是10．69年,其他周期并不明显．(2)小波功率谱给出了全部时间-周期范围的功率谱变化,它显示了在某个周期处于某个时段的局部功率的变化,小波功率谱分析表明,小于1年的周期仅仅在太阳活动最大期附近比较明显．(3)太阳射电2800 MHz,太阳黑子数和太阳黑子面积数的几个周期(10．69年,5．11年, 155．5天)的小波功率谱比较相似,出现峰值的时间相同;曲线的起伏相似,周期越小,曲线起伏的频率越大．     

Wavelet entropy and the multi-peaked structure of solar cycle maximum

Wavelet analysis of different solar activity indices—sunspot numbers, sunspot areas and flare index—allows us to investigate the time evolution of some frequency dependent functionals, like wavelet entropy, which gives useful information about the complexity level of the related signals. The main aim of this work is the analysis of the time behavior of wavelet entropy near the maximum phases of solar cycles 21–22–23 in order to further contribute to the characterization of the multi-peaked structure of solar cycle maxima and to support the current interpretation of the so-called Gnevyshev gap.     

Edge adapted wavelets,solar magnetic activity,and climate change

The continuous wavelet transform is adapted to account for signal truncation through renormalization and by modifying the shape of the analyzing window. Comparison is made of the instant, integrated, and mean wavelet power with previous algorithms. The edge adapted and renormalized admissible wavelet transforms are used to estimate the level of solar magnetic activity from the sunspot record. The solar activity is compared to Oerlemans’ temperature reconstruction and to the Central England Temperature record. A correlation is seen for years between 1610 and 1990, followed by a strong deviation as the recently observed temperature increases.     

A new pattern for the north–south asymmetry of sunspots

We study the solar cycle evolution during the last 8 solar cycles using a vectorial sunspot area called the LA (longitudinal asymmetry) parameter. This is a useful measure of solar activity in which the stochastic, longitudinally evenly distributed sunspot activity is reduced and which therefore emphasizes the more systematic, longitudinally asymmetric sunspot activity. Interesting differences are found between the LA parameter and the more conventional sunspot activity indices like the (scalar) sunspot area and the sunspot number. E.g., cycle 19 is not the highest cycle according to LA. We have calculated the separate LA parameters for the northern and southern hemisphere and found a systematic dipolar-type oscillation in the dominating hemisphere during high solar activity times which is reproduced from cycle to cycle. We have analyzed this oscillation during cycles 16–22 by a superposed epoch method using the date of magnetic reversal in the southern hemisphere as the zero epoch time. According to our analysis, the oscillation starts by an excess of the northern LA value in the ascending phase of the solar cycle which lasts for about 2.3 years. Soon after the maximum northern dominance, the southern hemisphere starts dominating, reaching its minimum some 1.2–1.7 years later. The period of southern dominance lasts for about 1.6 years and ends, on an average, slightly before the end of magnetic reversal.     

太阳与地磁活动的1.3–1.7 yr振荡关系分析

太阳和地磁活动中的1.3–1.7 yr周期研究对于理解日地空间耦合系统中可能发生的物理过程十分重要.黑子是太阳光球层上最突出的磁场结构, Ap指数则是表征全球地磁活动水平的重要指标.使用同步压缩小波变换得到太阳黑子数和地磁Ap指数的1.3–1.7yr周期,并用互相关方法分析研究它们之间的相位关系.结果如下:(1)太阳黑子数和地磁Ap指数的1.3–1.7 yr周期呈现间歇性的演化特征,且随着时间的变化而不断变化;(2)地磁Ap指数在奇数活动周比相邻的偶数活动周的周期分量更高,表现出上下波动的变化特性;(3)地磁Ap指数和太阳黑子数的相位关系不是一成不变的,在大多数情况下地磁Ap指数滞后太阳黑子数,仅在第18和第22活动周黑子数在相位上滞后.     

The phase variations of the solar cycle

It has previously been shown that the statistics of the phase fluctuation of the sunspot cycle are compatible with the assumption that the solar magnetic field is generated deep in the Sun by a frequency stable oscillator and that the observed substantial phase fluctuation in the sunspot cycle is due to variation in the time required for the magnetic field to move to the solar surface (Dicke, 1978, 1979). It was shown that the observed phase shifts are strongly correlated with the amplitude of the solar cycle. It is shown here that of two empirical models for the transport of magnetic flux to the surface, the best fit to the data is obtained with a model for which the magnetic flux is carried to the surface by convection with the convection velocity proportional to a function of the solar cycle amplitude. The best fit of this model to the data is obtained for a 12-yr transit time. The period obtained for the solar cycle is T = 22.219 ± 0.032 yr. It is shown that the great solar anomaly of 1760–1800 is most likely real and not due to poor data.     

The use of abnormal quiet days in Sq(H) for predicting the magnitude of sunspot maximum at the time of preceding sunspot minimum

The previously established connection between the occurence of AQDs (“abnormal quiet days” when the phase of the solar diurnal variation of horizontal magnetic field, Sq(H), at a mid-latitude northern hemisphere station is anomalous) at sunspot minimum and the magnitude of the following sunspot maximum is examined in the light of our recent improved understanding of the nature and cause of AQDs. A small contribution to the relationship is found to arise from variations from cycle to cycle in the additional northward field which is characteristic of AQDs and leads to a reduced Sq(H) amplitude at stations poleward of the Sq focus. However, the main factor which determines the connection is a variation from one sunspot minimum to another of the amplitude of the small southward bay-like field perturbations which constitute the AQD events, and evidence is presented which suggests that this parameter may be quantitatively related to the extent of southward swing of the B_z component of the interplanetary magnetic field which determines the energy transfer from the solar wind into the magnetospheric tail. It thus appears that the magnitude of southward swing in B_z might be another solar parameter which anticipates the size of a forthcoming sunspot cycle during its build-up over the declining phase of the previous cycle and at the minimum.     

Analysis of the 1.3–1.7 yr Oscillation Relationship between Solar and Geomagnetic Activities

The study on the 1.3–1.7 yr period of the solar and geomagnetic activities is very important for understanding the possible physical processes in the solar-terrestrial coupling system. The sunspot is the most prominent magnetic field structure in the solar photosphere, and the Ap index is an important indicator for the global geomagnetic activity level. The 1.3–1.7 yr period for the sunspot number and the geomagnetic Ap index is obtained by the synchro-squeezing wavelet transform, and the phase relationship between them is studied by the cross-correlation analysis. The main results are as follows: (1) The 1.3–1.7 yr period of the geomagnetic Ap index and sunspot number exhibits an intermittent evolutionary characteristics, and changes continuously with the time; (2) the geomagnetic Ap index has a higher periodic component in the odd solar cycles than the neighboring even solar cycles, which is characterized by fluctuations; (3) the phase relationship between the geomagnetic Ap index and the sunspot number is not always invariant, in most cases the geomagnetic Ap index lags behind the sunspot number, except in the 18th and 22th solar cycles.     

Periodicities in Irradiance and in other Solar Activity Indices During Cycle 23

Magnetic fields give rise to distinctive features in different solar atmospheric regimes. To study this, time variations of the flare index, sunspot number and sunspot area, each index arising from different physical conditions, were compared with the solar composite irradiance throughout cycle 23. Rieger-type periodicities in these time series were calculated using Fourier and wavelet transforms (WTs). The peaks of the wavelet power of these periodicities appeared between the years 1999 and 2002. We found that the solar irradiance oscillations are less significant than those in the other indices during this cycle. The irradiance shows non-periodic fluctuations during this time interval. The peaks of the flare index, sunspot number and sunspot total area were seen around 2000.4, 1999.9 and 2001.0, respectively. These periodicities appeared intermittently and were not simultaneous in different solar activity indices during the three years of the maximum phase of solar cycle 23.     

Solar cycle variation of heliosphepic parameters

This paper makes a statistical analysis of the solar cycle variation of heliospheric quantities observed at 1 AU. Two kinds of solar cycle variation with different characters have been identified, i.e. the sunspot and coronal-hole cycles, the latter is characterized by the coronal structure lifetime L_C. The kinetic and internal energy parameters of solar wind particles follow the coronal-hole cycle, reaching a maximum at 1973 or 1974. Certain parameter combinations involving IMF quantities are found to be the looked-for heliospheric quantities that follow the sunspot cycle. Among them the ratio of magnetic to kinetic energy density μ_k and the ratio of magnetic to thermal pressure μ_p show a positive correlation with the sunspot number R while the plasma parameter and the Alfvenic Mach number M_a correlate negatively with the sunspot number. The solar wind temperature T, velocity V as well as the adiabatic sound speed C_s vary basically with the coronal-hole cycle as compared to the Alfvenic speed C_a following the sunspot cycle, while the magnetic sonic speed C_as possesses a dual nature. The implication of the above results is that the solar winds observed during the sunspot maximum and the coronal-hole maximum years differ basically in their characters. The former, on the average, is a stream with a low speed, temperature, and density, but under highly magnetic control; while the latter is one with high speed, temperature and density, but under weakly magnetic control. The output of the mass, kinetic and thermal energy fluxes in the former is much less than in the latter.     

Wavelet Analysis of solar,solar wind and geomagnetic parameters

The sunspot number, solar wind plasma, interplanetary magnetic field, and geomagnetic activity index A _p have been analyzed using a wavelet technique to look for the presence of periods and the temporal evolution of these periods. The global wavelet spectra of these parameters, which provide information about the temporal average strength of quasi periods, exhibit the presence of a variety of prominent quasi periods around 16 years, 10.6 years, 9.6 years, 5.5 years, 1.3 years, 180 days, 154 days, 27 days, and 14 days. The wavelet spectra of sunspot number during 1873–2000, geomagnetic activity index A _p during 1932–2000, and solar wind velocity and interplanetary magnetic field during 1964–2000 indicate that their spectral power evolves with time. In general, the power of the oscillations with a period of less than one year evolves rapidly with the phase of the solar cycle with their peak values changing from one cycle to the next. The temporal evolution of wavelet power in R _z, v _sw, n, B _y, B _z, |B|, and A _p for each of the prominent quasi periods is studied in detail.