Impact of Land Use Changes on Habitat Quality in Altay Region

Altay region is located in the northern part of Xinjiang, and has complex and diverse internal geomorphic types, undulating terrain and a fragile ecosystem. Studying the impact of land use changes on habitat quality is of great significance to regional ecological protection and development, rational planning and utilization, and ensuring the sustainable development of the ecological environment. Based on the InVEST model, combined with land use panel data and topographic relief data of the Altay region, this paper studied the habitat quality from 1995 to 2018. The results show that cultivated land, water area and construction land increased gradually from 1995 to 2018, while grassland and unused land decreased. Forestland remained stable in the first five periods, but increased significantly in 2018. During 1995-2018, all land use types were transferred, mainly between cultivated land, forestland, grassland and unused land in the flat and slightly undulating areas. Poor habitat quality was dominant during 1995-2018. Habitat quality decreased significantly in 2015, which was related to the rapid expansion of cultivated and construction land as threat sources, as well as the decrease of forest and grassland as sensitive factors. However, habitat quality improved significantly in 2018, because a large amount of cultivated land and unused land were converted into forest land and grassland with high habitat suitability. Land use type has an important influence on habitat quality. The distribution characteristics of habitat quality for topographic relief types from good to bad were: large undulating area>medium undulating area>small undulating area>flat area>slightly undulating area. The findings of this study are of great significance for coordinating social, economic, and ecological development in this region and in similar areas.     

黄土高原水土流失区生态退耕对粮食安全的影响

退耕还林是黄土高原水土流失区改善生态环境的一种有效途径,但在一定程度上必然会影响到区域的粮食安全,其中最直接最主要的影响便是退耕带来耕地面积减少,引发粮食总产量的降低。根据黄土高原水土流失区的生态退耕规划,对退耕还林还草可能对当地造成的粮食生产影响进行分析。利用具有显著科学性和可操作性的最小人均耕地面积和耕地压力指数模型,对该区各亚区进行了粮食安全评价,并以此为基础提出了黄土高原水土流失区各亚区退耕还林还草与粮食安全的协调途径。     

Simulation of future land-use scenarios in the Three Gorges Reservoir Region under the effects of multiple factors

Model simulation and scenario change analysis are the core contents of the future land-use change (LUC) study. In this paper, land use status data of the Three Gorges Reservoir Region (TGRR) in 1990 was used as base data. The relationship between driving factors and land-use change was analyzed by using binary logistic stepwise regression analysis, based on which land use in 2010 was simulated by CLUE-S model. After the inspection and determination of main parameters impacting on driving factors of land use in the TGRR, land use of this region in 2030 was simulated based on four scenarios, including natural growth, food security, migration-related construction and ecological conservation. The results were shown as follows: (1) The areas under ROC curves of land-use types (LUTs) were both greater than 0.8 under the analysis and inspection of binary logistic model. These LUTs include paddy field, dryland, woodland, grassland, construction land and water area. Therefore, it has a strong interpretation ability of driving factors on land use, which can be used in the estimation of land use probability distribution. (2) The Kappa coefficients, verified from the result of land-use simulation in 2010, were shown of paddy field 0.9, dryland 0.95, woodland 0.97, grassland 0.84, construction land 0.85 and water area 0.77. So the results of simulation could meet the needs of future simulation and prediction. (3) The results of multi-scenario simulation showed a spatial competitive relationship between different LUTs, and an influence on food security, migration-related construction and ecological conservation in the TGRR, including some land use actions such as the large-scale conversion from paddy field to dryland, the occupation on cultivated land, woodland and grassland for rapid expansion of construction land, the reclamation of woodland and grassland into cultivated land, returning steep sloping farmland back into woodland and grassland. Therefore, it is necessary to balance the needs of various aspects in land use optimization, to achieve the coordination between socio-economy and ecological environment.     

基于GIS和元胞自动机的玛纳斯河流域典型绿洲景观格局优化

近几十年来,玛纳斯河流域以耕地面积过度扩张、山区林地与草地退化为代表的一系列不可持续的发展方式已对区域生态安全和土地可持续利用构成了威胁。通过利用遥感影像与GIS方法,以沙湾县和农八师垦区为研究区,定量评价了区域土地利用的空间适宜性,并将其与国家退耕还林还草政策作为主要约束条件,建立元胞自动机模型对研究区景观格局进行了空间优化。结果表明：（1）1976-2012年,研究区耕地面积显著扩张,增加的耕地主要由未利用地、草地和林地转换而来;林地面积净减少幅度达65.90%,转出林地中有58.33%转换为耕地;草地净面积在研究时段内虽略有增加,但仍有6.352×10⁴ hm²的草地转换为耕地,占草地转出总面积的66.03%;（2）耕地、林地和草地适宜性等级处于I级（很适宜）和Ⅱ级（适宜）的面积分别占研究区总面积的79.74%、70.23%和59.82%;（3）优化后,区域内耕地、林地和草地三者的比例由原来的6.04∶0.39∶3.57调整为4.03∶0.99∶4.98。优化结果在一定程度上减缓了耕地的扩张,提高了林地、草地所占比例,有利于该区域绿洲生态系统的稳定性和社会经济可持续发展。     

蒙古高原草地利用特征及其国别差异

内蒙古草原是蒙古高原草原带的南部组成部分,是我国北方重要的生态屏障,草原生态修复任务重、压力大。本文以蒙古高原典型草原乌珠穆沁—温都尔汗样带为例,以1988—2016年5期TM数据为信息源,获取2016年样带草地利用信息基础上,按国别和年限对样带草地利用特征进行分析,揭示草地主要干扰因素,探寻有效的修复途径和可借鉴的国际经验。研究发现：① 草地面积占样带95.05%,均匀覆盖于整个样带;其他用地类型占比均不大,但分布相对集中,其中耕地集中于样带西北部蒙古国段,工矿用地、沙地、盐碱地集中于样带东南部内蒙古段。② 1988—2016年样带耕地面积减幅最大,为35.71%,集中位于蒙古国段;草地、水域面积逐年减少,在中国境内、境外变化趋势相同,但内蒙古段草地减幅大于蒙古国段且多转为未利用地;工矿用地面积增幅最大,为初期的近367倍,集中分布于内蒙古段;盐碱地、沙地面积逐年增加,在中国境内、境外的变化幅度相当。③ 草地是高原主要土地利用类型,放牧是草地主要利用方式,开矿是除放牧以外中国草地的主要干扰因子,蒙古国则为垦殖,内蒙古的草地干扰远大于蒙古国。草地退化与干旱化是蒙古高原面临的主要生态环境问题,在中国境内尤为突出。     

多因素耦合下三峡库区土地利用未来情景模拟（英文）

Model simulation and scenario change analysis are the core contents of the future land-use change(LUC) study. In this paper, land use status data of the Three Gorges Reservoir Region(TGRR) in 1990 was used as base data. The relationship between driving factors and land-use change was analyzed by using binary logistic stepwise regression analysis, based on which land use in 2010 was simulated by CLUE-S model. After the inspection and determination of main parameters impacting on driving factors of land use in the TGRR, land use of this region in 2030 was simulated based on four scenarios, including natural growth, food security, migration-related construction and ecological conservation. The results were shown as follows:(1) The areas under ROC curves of land-use types(LUTs) were both greater than 0.8 under the analysis and inspection of binary logistic model. These LUTs include paddy field, dryland, woodland, grassland, construction land and water area. Therefore, it has a strong interpretation ability of driving factors on land use, which can be used in the estimation of land use probability distribution.(2) The Kappa coefficients, verified from the result of land-use simulation in 2010, were shown of paddy field 0.9, dryland 0.95, woodland 0.97, grassland 0.84, construction land 0.85 and water area 0.77. So the results of simulation could meet the needs of future simulation and prediction.(3) The results of multi-scenario simulation showed a spatial competitive relationship between different LUTs, and an influence on food security, migration-related construction and ecological conservation in the TGRR, including some land use actions such as the large-scale conversion from paddy field to dryland, the occupation on cultivated land, woodland and grassland for rapid expansion of construction land, the reclamation of woodland and grassland into cultivated land, returning steep sloping farmland back into woodland and grassland. Therefore, it is necessary to balance the needs of various aspects in land use optimization, to achieve the coordination between socio-economy and ecological environment.     

农牧交错区生态环境质量遥感动态监测——以宁夏盐池为例

以26 a（1989-2015年）4期Landsat TM/OLI遥感数据为基础,提取不同年份的湿度指数、植被指数、地表温度以及土壤指数,利用主成分分析法,构建盐池县4个时期遥感生态指数（RSEI）和生态环境质量综合指数（ESI）,对其生态环境质量进行了评价,探讨区域生态环境的时空变化特征。结果表明：（1）湿度、绿度对区域生态环境质量起正面作用,而热度和干度则起负面作用,其中代表绿度指标的植被覆盖度（NDVI）对生态指数的贡献最大。（2）1989-2015年间,4个年份RSEI均值分别为0.41、0.54、0.51、0.57,生态环境质量呈上升-下降-上升且整体变好的特征。26 a间研究区生态环境明显转好的面积约占全县面积的20.01%,而生态环境质量中明显变差的面积仅占全县面积的1.64%。改善区域主要分布在研究区北部的盐池县城-高沙窝镇-王乐井乡以及惠安堡镇以南-麻黄山地区,中部的冯记沟乡生态环境质量有所变差。（3）盐池县生态环境质量受气候影响明显,退耕还林还草、草地禁牧以及禁止乱砍乱伐等措施对生态环境质量的提升起到了重要的促进作用。     

西北干旱地区绿洲城市土地生态安全动态评价——以新疆库尔勒市为例

土地生态安全是一个地区生存和发展的核心。以新疆第二大城市库尔勒市为研究靶区,运用三角模型,建立评价指标体系,通过熵权法计算各指标的权重,分别计算得到EI、NSI、NREI三组综合指数,在此基础上计算出各指标的影响度。从时间序列上对“十二五”规划期间内库尔勒市土地生态安全状况进行评价,并对其主要影响因子进行分析。结果表明：（1）库尔勒市土地生态安全综合指数呈现极不安全-较不安全的趋势。（2）影响库尔勒市土地生态安全的限制性因子主要是人口城市化水平、一般工业固体废物产生量以及排水管道密度。综上所述,库尔勒市土地生态安全现状极不安全,此研究将为改善生态状况提供科学依据。     

中国北方农牧交错带风水蚀复合区的粮食与退耕还林(草)问题

中国北方农牧交错带风水蚀复合区是一个非常特殊的生态脆弱区,通过对该类型区60个典型县域的实地考察和统计资料分析表明：①该类型区的人均粮食产量自给有余,但粮食单产较低,较高的人均粮食产量是以扩大耕地面积,牺牲生态为代价的,今后粮食增产的主要潜力重点应放在提高水浇地单产上。②从区域和国家生态安全角度考虑,该类型区不适宜大规模开垦耕地,而应在粮食自给的基础上逐渐转变为以牧为主的发展方向,退耕还林(草)正是实现这一重要转变的最有效途径和措施。③农户调查结果表明,退耕对农户粮食产量和家庭经济收入的影响不大,大部分农户能够自觉接受退耕还林(草)政策,但目前正处于相持阶段,仍需要国家给予适当经济补偿。因此,该类型区的退耕还林(草)工程不但不能压缩,而且应该进一步扩大规模,加大投资力度。     

基于RS和GIS的济宁市土地利用变化及生态安全研究

在RS/GIS技术的支持下,选择南四湖流域典型市域——济宁市为研究区,基于多源数据,揭示了研究区1987～2008年的土地利用时空变化特点,进一步构建"隐患-状态-免疫"的生态安全评价指标体系,采用组合赋权法确定指标权重,应用改进TOPSIS模型实现了100 m×100 m栅格水平上的生态安全综合评价。结果表明:研究区土地利用变化较为剧烈且具有独特的区域特色,其总体特征为耕地、林地、草地和未利用地的面积持续下降,建设用地急剧扩张,水域面积则先降后升;20 a来,研究区生态安全状况经历了先恶化后改善的变化趋势,南水北调工程的实施、环境治理和生态建设加大是2000年后研究区生态安全好转的主要驱动力;研究区生态安全状态空间差异明显,东部山地丘陵区和南四湖区最好,中部和西北部地区最差,其余区域基本处在预警状态。研究结果可为研究区生态建设和土地生态安全格局的制定提供依据。     

乌鲁木齐市土地生态安全综合评价

土地生态环境是人类生产生活的重要场所,其安全状况与人类社会的可持续发展息息相关.通过选取干旱区城市乌鲁木齐市为研究对象,针对乌鲁木齐市2017年土地生态环境现状,应用生态系统服务价值(ESV)评估、景观生态安全指数(LES)、压力-状态-响应(PSR)模型共同构建乌鲁木齐市土地生态安全评价体系.结果表明:(1)2017...     

新疆阿勒泰市耕地资源预警分析

以阿勒泰市耕地资源为研究对象,构建耕地资源预警指标体系,运用层次分析法筛选出对耕地资源数量、质量以及生态环境影响比较大的指标作为耕地预警的警情指标;阐述了1995-2010年耕地资源存在的警情,在此基础上引入相关预测模型对阿勒泰市2012-2020年耕地资源的警情进行了预测,并进行综合警度的划分。结果表明：阿勒泰市耕地资源综合警情逐年加重。     

Spatiotemporal Pattern and Driving Force Analysis of Vegetation Variation in Altay Prefecture based on Google Earth Engine

Quantitative evaluation and driving mechanism analysis of vegetation dynamics are essential for promoting regional sustainable development. In the past 20 years, the ecological environment in Altay Prefecture has changed significantly due to global warming. Meanwhile, with increasing human activities, the spatiotemporal pattern and driving forces of vegetation variation in the area are uncertain and difficult to accurately assess. Hence, we quantified the vegetation growth by using the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) on the Google Earth Engine (GEE). Then, the spatiotemporal patterns of vegetation from 2000 to 2019 were analyzed at the pixel scale. Finally, significance threshold segmentation was performed using meteorological data based on the correlation analysis results, and the contributions of climate change and human activities to vegetation variation were quantified. The results demonstrated that the vegetation coverage in Altay Prefecture is mainly concentrated in the north. The vegetation areas representing significant restoration and degradation from 2000 to 2019 accounted for 24.08% and 1.24% of Altay Prefecture, respectively. Moreover, spatial correlation analysis showed that the areas with significant correlations between NDVI and temperature, precipitation and sunlight hours accounted for 3.3%, 6.9% and 20.3% of Altay Prefecture, respectively. In the significant restoration area, 18.94% was dominated by multiple factors, while 3.4% was dominated by human activities, and 1.74% was dominated by climate change. Within the significant degradation area, abnormal degradation and climate change controlled 1.07% and 0.17%, respectively. This study revealed the dynamic changes of vegetation and their driving mechanisms in Altay Prefecture, and can provide scientific support for further research on life community mechanism theory and key remediation technology of mountain-water-forest-farmland-lake-grass in Altay Prefecture.     

关于宁、蒙、陕农牧交错带重点地区退耕还林(草)工程实施情况与建议

阐述了农牧交错带生态环境退化和恶化的原因,除了气候条件等自然因素外,主要是由于人类过度开垦、放牧、采挖等一系列不合理经济活动破坏生态环境引起的。目前正在实施的退耕还林(草)工程正是针对这一地区生态退化和恶化而采取的加强生态保护和建设的重大举措。工程实施两年多以来,进展顺利,已取得了重要成就,局部地区生态有了明显改善。并且,根据该区自然特点,灾害状况,以及恢复这一地区生态屏障的作用,提出有关该区的经营方向,扩大退耕还林(草),退牧还草的一些建议。     

近期准噶尔盆地西北部水利工程影响区土地利用变化特征分析

噶尔盆地西北部水利工程设施的建成及运行，对工程沿线区域土地资源的利用方式产生了深远的影响。应用RS和GIS技术作为信息获取与分析工具。通过对噶尔盆地西北部水利工程沿线区域2000年和2002年Landsat TM卫星影像进行解析。对工程沿线区域土地利用现状及工程直接影响区土地利用动态变化特征进行系统分析。并探讨了土地利用变化的驱动因素。结合野外调查验证，文章还指出该区域由于土地利用方式的变化所引起的生态环境问题，并提出了相应的对策建议。     

基于GIS的山区土地资源安全定量评价模型 ——以四川省凉山州为例

土地资源是制约山区资源环境承载力的关键因素,土地资源安全状况在一定程度上决定了山区的资源环境安全状况和社会经济发展水平。在分析山区土地资源安全影响因素的基础上,论文构建了以建设用地安全指数和粮食安全指数为基础的山区土地资源安全评价模型。该模型使用城镇化率作为建设用地安全指数的权重,以反映建设用地安全在区域土地资源安全中的重要性;使用非城镇化率作为粮食安全指数的权重,以反映农村土地安全状态在土地资源安全中的重要性。在GIS 软件支持下,利用该模型对四川省凉山州各县市的土地资源安全指数进行了评估计算,结果表明凉山州土地资源安全情况总体不容乐观,土地资源安全等级为安全和较安全的县市仅有3 个,占全州县市总数的县市总数的17.65%,国土面积的17.23%;而土地资源不安全与临界安全的县就有10 个,占全州县市总数的58.82%,国土面积的55.03%。土地资源安全主要受地形条件约束,地形起伏度每下降0.09,土地资源安全指数约上升0.97。同时,土地资源不安全区与贫困区具有高度叠加的特点,这表明土地资源是主导山区发展和山区资源环境安全的关键因素,提高山区土地生产潜力,节约集约利用土地是保障山区土地资源安全及资源环境安全的重要措施。     

宁夏中部干旱带盐池县植被生态需水规律研究

以宁夏中部干旱带盐池县为研究对象,对区域植被生态需水的内涵及类型划分进行了分析,并结合彭曼-蒙特斯模型逐月估算了区域林草植被潜在蒸散量,采用Jensen公式结合实测的区域土壤特征曲线确定了土壤水分修正系数,为植被生态需水量的确定奠定了基础。通过对不同类型林草植被生态需水占比分析,可知当前盐池县草地的生态需水量远高于林地,是盐池县生态需水的主体。通过对植被生态需水与降雨平衡的时间变化规律分析可知,除7、8、9月份以外,盐池县各类林草植被生态需水均处于严重亏缺状态,其中缺水量最为严重的是4月份;从植被类型上分析,可知林地中无论是生态需水亏缺量还是盈余水量均以灌木林地为最,而草地中以天然草地为最。进一步对盐池县各生态分区需水特征进行分析,可知一级生态分区中,风沙区的生态需水比例远大于黄土丘陵区;二级生态分区生态需水比例由大到小依次为花马池镇、王乐井乡、大水坑镇、高沙窝镇、惠安堡镇、冯记沟乡、青山乡、麻黄山乡。一级生态分区中风沙区的生态需水系数及生态需水模数均大于黄土丘陵区;二级各生态分区中生态需水系数及模数由大到小依次为花马池镇、王乐井乡、大水坑镇、惠安堡镇、高沙窝镇、青山乡、冯记沟乡,最小为麻黄山乡。盐池县降雨消耗性生态需水量最小值占蒸发总量的比例为30.51%,适宜值占蒸发总量的比例为72.91%,比例都比较高,其余的的蒸发量属于无效蒸发水量,仍然占有一定的比重,这依然为区域植被建设留有一定的空间,但要通过合理的水资源调控手段进行调配。     

基于OWA的大理市土地生态安全评价研究

从自然生态环境角度出发,从自然因子、生态环境因子、景观因子3个层面选取16项评价指标建立大理市土地生态安全评价体系,并运用IDRISI软件中的MCE模块进行有序加权平均算子（OWA）多准则决策评价,得到不同决策风险系数下的大理市土地生态安全评价结果。结果显示,由于决策者风险态度不同,得到土地生态安全评价结果差异较大,在实际应用中,必须结合研究区的实际情况以及规划的目的选择不同的风险系数进行评价,才能得到更加真实有效的结果。     

长江上游丘陵区社会经济实力与坡耕地治理--以四川省中江县为例

以长江上游丘陵区重点水土流失区内的四川省中江县为例，借助GIS技术，分析了坡度和水土流失约束下的耕地状况，选取农民人均纯收入、人均粮食产量和人均GDP作为评价指标，以乡为评价单元，进行了坡耕地治理的社会经济实力综合评价，进而探讨了坡耕地治理的相关措施。分值在80～100间的乡镇应以大规模的改造坡耕地(坡改梯)、建设基本农田为突破口，为解决粮食问题和实现陡坡地退耕创造条件，退耕还林还草应将经济效益、生态效益和社会效益融于一体。分值在65-80间的乡镇应结合坡耕地综合治理和基本农田建设，发展生态农业，逐步实施退耕还林。分值在0～65间的乡镇应注重陡坡耕地水土流失的防治和土地利用技术的应用。不宜近期退耕。此外，通过加强农村居民点整理增加耕地，可在一定程度上解决陡坡退耕带来的粮食问题，为退耕还林还草、防治水土流失工作的顺利开展提供保障。     

基于PRA方法的农户对干旱区草原生态保护政策的认知分析

自2000年以来,中国草原牧区实施的一系列草原建设和保护工程引起了草地利用方式和农牧民传统生产模式的改变。农牧户作为生产经营活动的直接参与者和草原生态保护政策的实施主体,其认知态度与行为选择将直接影响政策实施效果,对草原生态环境有着直接影响。以黑河上游肃南县干旱区草原为例,选取了自由放牧区、半农半牧区和舍饲养殖区三个不同类型牧区,采用参与式农户评估方法（PRA）,分析了农牧民对草原生态保护政策的认知情况和实施效果及其在当前政策背景下倾向性的草原放牧措施。结果表明：（1）相对宽松的草地资源约束使自由放牧区内农牧民的草原保护政策认知水平较高,58.1%的农牧户对季节性休牧和补贴数额有较高的认同度,但存在超载放牧现象。（2）半农半牧区和舍饲养殖区农牧民对草原保护政策的认知水平偏低,同时,舍饲养殖导致的生产成本上升使该趋势进一步加剧,71.7%的农牧户响应禁牧政策的积极性不高且认为禁牧补贴数额不合理。建议从增加非农就业机会、完善农村金融服务体系、细化草原补奖标准和调整草地资源约束的角度因地制宜采取配套措施,实现保护生态和农牧民增收双目标。