从气候角度谈发展韶关蔬菜生产

韶关地处南北气候过渡带,又有山地气候的多样性,对发展蔬菜具有独特的优势。为此,韶关市委、市政府决定把发展蔬菜生产作为农村经济新的增长点,规划全市发展蔬菜面积６．６７万公顷。１９９８年,为实现农村人均收入比上年增５００元,达到３５００元的目标,再次决定调减２万公顷晚稻田种植适销对路的高产高值经济作物。围绕上述中心工作,现针对韶关蔬菜生产提出几点意见。１　立足当地气候优势,大力发展夏秋及旱冬蔬菜生产　　韶关属南亚热带～中亚热带湿润型季风气候过渡带。在蔬菜生产上,有两大气候优势,一是早春比湖南、江西回…     

利用川东地区气候资源时空差异开发优质商品蔬菜

川东丘陵山地蔬菜立体气候生态及蔬菜立体气候区划从四个方面进行：其１，广泛搜集整理前人关于川东丘陵山地气候及蔬菜气候适应性方面的研究成果和著作。其２，对川东丘陵山地的蔬菜生产和有关的问题进行广泛的考察和研究。其３，设置一些田间试验（如分期播种和自然分期播种试验）进行蔬菜的农业气象鉴定。其４，在蔬菜立体气候生态研究的基础上，进行了川东蔬菜的立体气候区划。在揭示川东丘陵山地蔬菜立体气候生态规律和区划的基础上，认真研究如何充分利用各个层次蔬菜生产的优势，科学布局城市蔬菜生产基地，以确保城市蔬菜供应。并以万县市为样板，对蔬菜基地进行综合规划。     

吐鲁番地区葡萄生产的农业气候分析及产量预报

葡萄是吐鲁番地区的主要经济作物,鲜果俗有“珍珠”之称;葡萄干亦久以“色碧、味甘、营养价值高”而在国内外市场上享有盛名.因此,大力发展吐鲁番的葡萄生产对国家换取外汇,提高人民生活水平都有很大意义.但长期以来吐鲁番的葡萄生产受气候条件的影响,产量很不稳定.地区平均单产值,高者达两千余斤,低者仅二、三百斤.对葡萄生产与气候条件的关系进行分析,并及时而准确地为生产和计划部门提供产量预报信息,是制订农业发展规划和出口计划的     

粤北石灰岩地区反季节蔬菜气候生态适应性分析

反季节蔬菜生产是指利用地区热量条件的特殊性，发展非正常季节的蔬菜生产，使蔬菜市场供应超前或滞后，改善淡季蔬菜供应。近年来石灰岩地区利用高海拔地区夏季气候较凉爽的特点，发展种植夏季反季节蔬菜生产取得明显的经济效益。如阳山县1990年利用高海拔地区种植反季节蔬菜15个品种，面积733．3公顷，总产8000多吨，总产值800多万元。1993年连州市种植反季节蔬菜1166．2公顷，总产值3115万元，仅种菜一项，年收入超万元的农户全县有315户，曲江、乳源、乐昌、连南和英德等县市都有种菜致富的农户。因此，石灰岩地区发展反季节蔬菜生产，…     

江西省两系杂交稻制种基地气候风险区划的研究

通过对两系稻制种气候风险的数学定义，根据江西省1：25万地形数据和各气象台站40a气候资料及气候要素与海拔高度的关系，运用地理信息系统的空间分析方法，对两系稻制种基地的气候风险进行了区划，找出了最佳制种地理区域和不同品种最小气候风险下的最佳播种期。     

蔬菜合理布局的决策分析

蔬菜对气候条件的要求比一般农作物更为敏感,在郧阳市突出的表现有两个方面:一是自然灾害造成单产低,年变化大;二是出现明显的淡季,直接影响到人们的生活。因此从气候角度来讨论蔬菜合理布局的最优决策,以便合理利用气候资源,使蔬菜生产的损失最小而收益最大,有着重要的社会、生态、经济意义。本文以市农业区划办、蔬菜研究所提供的1972—1984年蔬菜单产和有关试验资料,分析了秋播蔬菜与气候条件之间的定量关系,应用得失矩阵数学模型,求     

利用高山气候优势 发展反季蔬菜生产

本文通过平原地区与山区气象资料的对比分析，找出了山区在盛夏7、8月无高温炎热之害，近似平原地区春、秋两季温和凉爽的气候特点，对发展高山反季蔬菜在品种选择、播种期安排、菜地选择和山区全方位发展蔬菜生产等方面提出了一些应注意的问题。     

利用我县山区气候资源发展高山反季节蔬菜

铜鼓县山区气候明显,适宜喜温瓜果类蔬菜生长,高山种植可适当延长生长期和采摘期。也适合根茎、叶类蔬菜早种早上市,从而丰富我县蔬菜淡季市场。我们配合县蔬菜办进行了专门气候调查后,以辣椒、萝卜为品种,选择大伪山林场羊场（海拔650m,代表高山）、县气象局（海拔260m,代表平地）为基地在1997年进行了一次对比种植试验。现就其气候状况及对比种植结果作一分析。1试验品种及其生长气象条件、茬口安排1．1试验品种高山辣椒选长势旺、果大肉厚、坚硬、耐贮运、产量高、抗病能力强的中晚熟优良品种：湘研6号、10号以及陕西华县渭椒一号…     

基于遗传算法的最优证券投资组合模型

为了研究能使风险损失率最小、收益最大的最优证券投资组合问题，首先提出了多目标规划模型，并采用模糊优选法将多目标模型单目标化。随后尝试采用遗传算法来对其求解，给出了模型的遗传算法编码规则和算法步骤。最后通过实例论证了模型的合理性及遗传算法的有效性。     

充分利用气候资源发展名特优蔬菜生产的建议

江西省委、省政府对蔬菜生产非常重视，决定将名特优蔬菜生产建成农业支柱产业。这对江西经济的发展有着重要意义。江西具有发展名特优蔬菜的气候、土地、劳力及区位优势，只要领导重视，能人带头，增加资金和科技投入、真抓实干，有着十分广阔的前景。现就如何充分利用气候资源，发展名特优蔬菜生产提出以下建议。1利用山区气候发展反季节蔬菜我省多山，在海拔300－1000米范围内，尤其是500—800米的山区，夏季气候温暖湿润，光照充足，没有炎热酷暑，特别适宜多种蔬菜的生长，既有利于喜温的瓜果类蔬菜，如辣椒、曹茄、茄子、黄瓜等延长生…     

Integrated assessment of biomass supply and demand in climate change mitigation scenarios

Biomass is often seen as a key component of future energy systems as it can be used for heat and electricity production, as a transport fuel, and a feedstock for chemicals. Furthermore, it can be used in combination with carbon capture and storage to provide so-called “negative emissions”. At the same time, however, its production will require land, possibly impacting food security, land-based carbon stocks, and other environmental services. Thus, the strategies adopted in the supply, conversion, and use of biomass have a significant impact on its effectiveness as a climate change mitigation measure. We use the IMAGE 3.0 integrated assessment model to project three different global, long term scenarios spanning different socioeconomic futures with varying rates of population growth, economic growth, and technological change, and investigate the role of biomass in meeting strict climate targets. Using these scenarios we highlight different possibilities for biomass supply and demand, and provide insights on the requirements and challenges for the effective use of this resource as a climate change mitigation measure. The results show that in scenarios meeting the 1.5 °C target, biomass could exceed 20% of final energy consumption, or 115–180 EJ_Prim/yr in 2050. Such a supply of bioenergy can only be achieved without extreme levels land use change if agricultural yields improve significantly and effective land zoning is implemented. Furthermore, the results highlight that strict mitigation targets are contingent on the availability of advanced technologies such as lignocellulosic fuels and carbon capture and storage.     

Climate Change and Water Resources

Current perspectives on global climate change based on recent reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) are presented. Impacts of a greenhouse warming that are likely to affect water planning and evaluation include changes in precipitation and runoff patterns, sea level rise, land use and population shifts following from these effects, and changes in water demands. Irrigation water demands are particularly sensitive to changes in precipitation, temperature, and carbon dioxide levels. Despite recent advances in climate change science, great uncertainty remains as to how and when climate will change and how these changes will affect the supply and demand for water at the river basin and watershed levels, which are of most interest to planners. To place the climate-induced uncertainties in perspective, the influence on the supply and demand for water of non-climate factors such as population, technology, economic conditions, social and political factors, and the values society places on alternative water uses are considered.     

Water resources for agriculture in a changing climate: international case studies

This integrated study examines the implications of changes in crop water demand and water availability for the reliability of irrigation, taking into account changes in competing municipal and industrial demands, and explores the effectiveness of adaptation options in maintaining reliability. It reports on methods of linking climate change scenarios with hydrologic, agricultural, and planning models to study water availability for agriculture under changing climate conditions, to estimate changes in ecosystem services, and to evaluate adaptation strategies for the water resources and agriculture sectors. The models are applied to major agricultural regions in Argentina, Brazil, China, Hungary, Romania, and the US, using projections of climate change, agricultural production, population, technology, and GDP growth.For most of the relatively water-rich areas studied, there appears to be sufficient water for agriculture given the climate change scenarios tested. Northeastern China suffers from the greatest lack of water availability for agriculture and ecosystem services both in the present and in the climate change projections. Projected runoff in the Danube Basin does not change substantially, although climate change causes shifts in environmental stresses within the region. Northern Argentina's occasional problems in water supply for agriculture under the current climate may be exacerbated and may require investments to relieve future tributary stress. In Southeastern Brazil, future water supply for agriculture appears to be plentiful. Water supply in most of the US Cornbelt is projected to increase in most climate change scenarios, but there is concern for tractability in the spring and water-logging in the summer.Adaptation tests imply that only the Brazil case study area can readily accommodate an expansion of irrigated land under climate change, while the other three areas would suffer decreases in system reliability if irrigation areas were to be expanded. Cultivars are available for agricultural adaptation to the projected changes, but their demand for water may be higher than currently adapted varieties. Thus, even in these relatively water-rich areas, changes in water demand due to climate change effects on agriculture and increased demand from urban growth will require timely improvements in crop cultivars, irrigation and drainage technology, and water management.     

“一带一路”沿线国家气象服务的供需协调度分析

基于2011—2020年“一带一路”沿线国家气候风险、灾损情况、经济水平,以及市场环境等方面数据资料,从气象服务供需视角,构建气象服务供需协调度指标体系,采用熵值法和协调度耦合模型量化分析沿线国家气象服务的需求、供给及供需均衡水平。结果表明,灾情指标和人口密度指标能较好地表征需求和供给水平;南亚的印度、巴基斯坦、孟加拉和东南亚的菲律宾等国家的气象服务需求相对较高;供给指数相较需求指数更加稳定;均衡指数在研究期内的波动范围变化不大,但是空间分布格局变化较大;沿线印度、新加坡和孟加拉三国的均衡性上升趋势最为显著。     

When enough should be enough: Improving the use of current agricultural lands could meet production demands and spare natural habitats in Brazil

Providing food and other products to a growing human population while safeguarding natural ecosystems and the provision of their services is a significant scientific, social and political challenge. With food demand likely to double over the next four decades, anthropization is already driving climate change and is the principal force behind species extinction, among other environmental impacts. The sustainable intensification of production on current agricultural lands has been suggested as a key solution to the competition for land between agriculture and natural ecosystems. However, few investigations have shown the extent to which these lands can meet projected demands while considering biophysical constraints. Here we investigate the improved use of existing agricultural lands and present insights into avoiding future competition for land. We focus on Brazil, a country projected to experience the largest increase in agricultural production over the next four decades and the richest nation in terrestrial carbon and biodiversity. Using various models and climatic datasets, we produced the first estimate of the carrying capacity of Brazil's 115 million hectares of cultivated pasturelands. We then investigated if the improved use of cultivated pasturelands would free enough land for the expansion of meat, crops, wood and biofuel, respecting biophysical constraints (i.e., terrain, climate) and including climate change impacts. We found that the current productivity of Brazilian cultivated pasturelands is 32–34% of its potential and that increasing productivity to 49–52% of the potential would suffice to meet demands for meat, crops, wood products and biofuels until at least 2040, without further conversion of natural ecosystems. As a result up to 14.3 Gt CO₂ Eq could be mitigated. The fact that the country poised to undergo the largest expansion of agricultural production over the coming decades can do so without further conversion of natural habitats provokes the question whether the same can be true in other regional contexts and, ultimately, at the global scale.     

气候生产潜力的季节分配与玉米的最佳播期

本文将气候生产潜力划分为三个层次,即光能生产潜力、光温生产潜力和光温水生产潜力。应用基于供水量与需水量之比建立的光温水生产潜力,计算了北京地区不同播种期的玉米可能产量,得出明显的峰状曲线,其峰值及其相应的播种期即最佳播期均与栽培试验的结论非常一致,这表明气候生产潜力的理论可为农学中的适宜播期问题建立理论基础。     

Baseline scenarios of global environmental change

This paper presents three baseline scenarios of no policy action computed by the IMAGE 2 model. These scenarios cover a wide range of coupled global change Indicators, including: energy demand and consumption; food demand, consumption, and production; changes in land cover including changes in extent of agricultural land and forest; emissions of greenhouse gases and ozone precursors; and climate change and its impacts on sea level rise, crop productivity and natural vegetation. Scenario information is available for the entire world with regional and grid scale detail, and covers from 1970 to 2100. The scenarios indicate that the coming decades could be a period of relatively rapid global environmental change as compared to the period before and after. The natural vegetation in industrialized regions could be threatened by climate change, but abandonment of agricultural lands could also make new lands available for reforestation and revegetation. The opposite is true for most of Asia and Africa. Here the impacts of climate change on vegetation may not be as significant as in temperate climates, but the demand for food will lead to a significant expansion of agricultural lands at the expense of remaining forests and other natural areas.     

Climate change, land use change, and China’s food security in the twenty-first century: an integrated perspective

Food security in China, the world’s most populous country, has long been a concern because of the challenges of population growth, water shortages, and loss of cropland through urbanization, soil degradation, and climate change. Here, we present an integrated analysis of China’s food demand and supply under IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios A1, A2, B1, and B2 in 2020, 2050, and 2080, based on official statistics and future development scenarios. Our analysis accounts for future socioeconomic, technological, and resource developments, as well the impact of climate change. We present a covariant relationship between changes in cereal productivity due to climate change and the cereal harvest area required to satisfy China’s food demand. We also estimated the effects of changing harvested areas on the productivity required to satisfy the food demand; of productivity changes due to climate change on the harvest area required to satisfy food demand; and of productivity and land use changes on the population at risk of undernutrition. China could be able to feed herself without disturbing the global food market in the twenty-first century, but whether the government will choose self-sufficiency or increased food imports may depend on the cost of change, which remains unknown.     

Long-term investigations on the water budget quantities predicted by the hydro-thermodynamic soil vegetation scheme (HTSVS) – Part II: Evaluation, sensitivity, and uncertainty

Summary ¶Various water budget elements (water supply to the atmosphere, ground water recharge, change in storage) are predicted by HTSVS for a period of 2050 days. The predicted water budget elements are evaluated by routine lysimeter data. The results show that land surface models need parameterizations for soil frost, snow effects and water uptake to catch the broad cycle of soil water budget elements. In principle, HTSVS is able to simulate the general characteristics of the seasonal changes in these water budget elements and their long-term accumulated sums. Compared to lysimeter data, there is a discrepancy in the predicted water supply to the atmosphere for summer and winter which may be attributed to the hardly observed plant physiological parameters like root depth, LAI, shielding factor, etc., the lack of measured downward long-wave radiation, and some simplifications made in the parameterizations of soil frost and snow effects. The fact that high resolution data for the evaluation of model results are missing and evaluation is made on the basis of the data from routine stations of a network is typical for the results of long-term studies on climate. Taking into account the coarse resolution of climate models, the coarse vertical resolution that is used in their LSMs, and the lack of suitable parameters needed, it seems that discrepancies in the order of magnitude found in this study are a general uncertainty in the results of land surface modeling on typical spatial and temporal scales of the climate system.Received October 8, 2001; revised February 15, 2002; accepted September 20, 2002 Published online: April 10, 2003     

Supply of carbon sequestration and biodiversity services from Australia's agricultural land under global change

Global agroecosystems can contribute to both climate change mitigation and biodiversity conservation, and market mechanisms provide a highly prospective means of achieving these outcomes. However, the ability of markets to motivate the supply of carbon sequestration and biodiversity services from agricultural land is uncertain, especially given the future changes in environmental, economic, and social drivers. We quantified the potential supply of these services from the intensive agricultural land of Australia from 2013 to 2050 under four global outlooks in response to a carbon price and biodiversity payment scheme. Each global outlook specified emissions pathways, climate, food demand, energy price, and carbon price modeled using the Global Integrated Assessment Model (GIAM). Using a simplified version of the Land Use Trade-Offs (LUTO) model, economic returns to agriculture, carbon plantings, and environmental plantings were calculated each year. The supply of carbon sequestration and biodiversity services was then quantified given potential land use change under each global outlook, and the sensitivity of the results to key parameters was assessed. We found that carbon supply curves were similar across global outlooks. Sharp increases in carbon sequestration supply occurred at carbon prices exceeding 50 $ tCO₂⁻¹ in 2015 and exceeding 65 $ tCO₂⁻¹ in 2050. Based on GIAM-modeled carbon prices, little carbon sequestration was expected at 2015 under any global outlook. However, at 2050 expected carbon supply under each outlook differed markedly, ranging from 0 to 189 MtCO₂ yr⁻¹. Biodiversity services of 3.32% of the maximum may be achieved in 2050 for a 1 $B investment under median scenario settings. We conclude that a carbon market can motivate supply of substantial carbon sequestration but only modest amounts of biodiversity services from agricultural land. A complementary biodiversity payment can synergistically increase the supply of biodiversity services but will not provide much additional carbon sequestration. The results were sensitive to global drivers, especially the carbon price, and the domestic drivers of adoption hurdle rate and agricultural productivity. The results can inform the design of an effective national policy and institutional portfolio addressing the dual objectives of climate change and biodiversity conservation that is robust to future uncertainty in both national and global drivers.