冬小麦田午时冠层温度与气温和地温的关系

基于野外实测数据，分晴日、阴日及不区分阴晴3种情况，研究了湿润与较干冬小麦田午时冠层温度、气温和地温间的定量关系。结果表明:湿润麦田晴日使用气温预测冠温效果最好，基于最终模型估算冠温的平均误差仅1.03℃，标准差为1.26℃。较干麦田晴日与阴日用地温估算冠温效果最佳，基于最终模型估算冠温的平均误差分别为1.64，1.54 ℃；其估算冠温的标准分别为2.05，1.89℃。用本文统计建模法预测结果的误差低于目前用NOAA影像反演冠温时2~3℃的均方根误差。研究结果也说明使用气温和地温预测麦田冠温是切实可行的。这就为冠温数据的获取提供了廉价有效的新方法；同时也使利用遥感影像与地面气象站常规观测资料相结合的方法，在较大的区域范围内进行冬小麦需水预测成为可能。     

Estimation of Sensible Heat Flux from Surface Temperature Wave and One-Time-of-Day Air Temperature Observation

By means of the algorithm presented here, the temporal course H(t) and the daily mean H¯ of the sensible heat flux H can be estimated from measurements of the thermodynamic surface temperature (as a function of time) and from a one-time-of-day air temperature observation. In addition to these temperatures, one needs estimates for daily mean wind speed, for the roughness lengths of momentum and heat transfer, and for the displacement height. First, a quite general solution of the equation for heat conductance (equation for the vertical profile of potential temperature (z,t)) in the dynamic sublayer will be presented. The undetermined parameters in this solution will be defined with the aid of the above mentioned measurements. The influence of horizontal advection will be taken into account. After that, the sensible heat flux can be evaluated from the temperature difference between surface and air with the well known resistance formulae. In this paper the algorithm is derived for areas with homogeneous surfaces, i.e., with uniform surface temperatures. Finally, the method will be verified by measurements taken during the field campaigns HIBE 89 (Hildesheimer Börde in Germany) and EFEDA 91 (Spain). The root mean square errors (RMSE) for the comparison between measurement and model with regard to the temperature difference of surface and air amount to one or two degrees Kelvin, and the error of H¯ reaches 10 to 25 per cent. The method can be used to determine the sensible heat flux from measurements of surface temperatures by satellites (e.g., METEOSAT), but can also be applied to ground based measurements. For instance, horizontal temperature advection can be estimated from measurements at a single location, especially if more than one near-surface air temperature is available. The procedure can be generalized for larger areas, which consist of various surface types with different surface temperatures. This generalization of the algorithm is in progress and will be addressed in a subsequent paper. It will allow us to improve the estimates for H(t) by means of temperature measurements from, e.g., NOAA/AVHRR or LANDSAT/TM, taking into account the heterogeneity of the area that is contained in one METEOSAT pixel.     

A Model to Predict Surface Temperatures

A model to predict the surface temperature of a variety of surfaces is described. The model solves the surface energy balance equation iteratively, using only standard meteorological data. Since surface and soil temperature information is not required for initialisation, the model is portable and, in theory, could be used for any surface and location. It is shown that, in order to obtain the correct cooling rates for vegetation during the night, the direct influence of the ground flux must be removed from the energy balance equation for the layer of vegetation. A scheme that couples a vegetation canopy to the ground solely by radiation is described, giving satisfactory cooling rates when compared with observations. Observations from a field site at Cardington, near Bedford, UK, are used to test the accuracy of the model for road and grass surfaces. When compared against these data, the model predicts surface temperatures with a root mean square error of about 1 °C for the road and 2 °C for the grass. Data from other sources not only give similar results to the Cardington data, but also demonstrate that the model can reproduce the characteristics of wet and partially dry soils and also dry desert sand. A study of the sensitivity of the model to errors in the forcing data indicates that inaccuracies in the air temperature data lead to similar sized errors in the predicted surface temperatures. Fluctuations in the forcing data that are not resolved by the model will affect a grass surface much more than a road surface, due to the relatively small thermal inertia of the grass.     

Modeling water and heat balance components for the river basin using remote sensing data on underlying surface characteristics

The method of the AVHRR-3 (NOAA) radiometer measurement data subject processing is produced for the retrieval of underlying surface temperature and several vegetation characteristics under cloud-free conditions. A technology for deriving the values of these parameters from the MODIS (EOS/Terra and Aqua) radiometer data is developed. The estimation of the temperature and vegetation characteristics is carried out for the Seim River basin (Kursk region) with the catchment area of 7460 km² for 2003–2005 vegetation seasons. Practical coincidence of estimations of AVHRR- and MODIS-derived temperatures, as well as the coincidence with ground observation results, is revealed. Statistics of these estimation errors is analyzed. Satellite-derived estimations of land surface temperature (LST) and vegetation characteristics are used for the calibration and verification of the developed model of the vertical heat and water transfer in the soil-vegetation-atmosphere system (SVAT). The model is intended for calculations of evapotranspiration, soil water and heat content, latent and sensible heat fluxes, and other water and heat balance components. The abilities to compute these parameters using the satellite estimations of the leaf area index and projective vegetation cover fraction as the model parameters and LST satellite estimations as the model input variable are investigated.     

多层城市冠层模型参数优化及对京津冀城市群的高温模拟

针对京津冀高温模拟,综合运用卫星和地面气象观测数据、参数敏感性试验等技术方法,确定了耦合了多层城市冠层模型的中尺度数值模式（WRF/BEP/BEM）的地表反照率、比辐射率和人为热等参数的本地化配置。数值对比试验表明,参照试验中优化地表反照率、比辐射率和人为热（通过本地优化BEM输入参数来实现）等参数后,模式对京津冀高温模拟的效果均有显著提高,65%及以上的城市站点,参照试验比敏感性试验模拟误差降低0.5℃以上。经参数优化的WRF/BEP/BEM,较好地模拟了2010年以来京津冀地区5次极端高温过程,模拟结果与观测的标准差分别为1.4°C、0.8°C、0.9°C、1.0°C和0.7°C,分别较ERA5与观测的标准差减小26.3%、61.9%、40.0%、41.2%和36.3%。参数本地优化的WRF/BEP/BEM,可进一步应用于京津冀极端高温的相关研究,特别是城市化对极端高温作用机理的研究。     

Impacts of Reference Time Series on the Homogenization of Radiosonde Temperature

Using radiosonde temperatures of 92 selected stations in China,the uncertainties in homogenization processes caused by different reference series,including nighttime temperature,the NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction) and ERA-40 (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) forecasting background,are examined via a two-phase regression approach.Although the results showed limited consistency in the temporal and spatial distribution of identified break points (BPs) in the context of metadata events of instrument model change and correction method,significant uncertainties still existed in BP identification,adjustment,and impact on the estimated trend.Reanalysis reference series generally led to more BP identification in homogenization.However,those differences were parts of global climatic shifts,which may have confused the BP calculations.Discontinuities also existed in the reanalysis series due to changes in the satellite input.The adjustment values deduced from the reanalysis series ranged widely and were larger than those from the nighttime series and,therefore,impacted the estimated temperature trend.     

TEST OF A SENSIBLE HEAT FLUX – RADIOMETRIC SURFACE TEMPERATURE RELATIONSHIP FOR HAPEX-SAHEL

The estimation of the sensible heatflux from thermal infrared temperature requires anestimate of the excess resistance to be added to theaerodynamic resistance to the transfer of heat fromthe surface. This excess resistance can be expressedin terms of kB-1. An earlier studysuggested that the sensible heat flux over semi-aridregions could be derived from satellite thermalinfrared temperature using a value of kB-1= 7. Values of kB-1 were derived frommeasurements of sensible heat flux, radiometricsurface temperature, air temperature and wind speedtaken over millet, savannah and open forest sitesduring HAPEX-Sahel. These were comparable to valuesderived over similar sites during a previous study. Sensible and latent heat fluxes were estimated usingno excess resistance, kB-1 = 7 andkB-1 set to the values derived from theHAPEX-Sahel data set. There was an improvement on theestimated fluxes when an excess resistance wasincorporated. However, there was no apparentdifference between the errors in the estimated fluxeswith kB-1 set to either the derived orfixed values. This provides additional support forthe use of kB-1 = 7 in the derivation ofsurface fluxes from satellite data for sparsecanopies.     

青藏高原地区地表温度及其取值对大气长波辐射冷却的影响

针对辐射传输模式在青藏高原地区的应用问题，使用Ｌｉｏｕ－Ｏｕ一维辐射传输模式及１９８２年８月￣１９８３年７月青藏高原热源观测实验期间青藏高原地面、高空与卫星观测资料，在高原辐射传输模式中区分了下垫面温度与地表空气温度的作用，并利用卫星观测资料对模式改进后的实际效果进行了验证；分析了地表温度的日变化和季节变化硬度，得到了下垫面温度的简单参数化方法。     

Regional Temperature Forecast for the Next Day in Hong Kong

For a century or so, the Hong Kong Observatory (HKO) has been providing temperature forecast for the whole of Hong Kong with the HKO Headquarters as the reference location. In recent decades, due to spreading of population from the main urban center to satellite towns, there is an increasing demand for regional temperature forecasts. To support such provision, the HKO has developed a regression model to provide objective guidance to forecasters in formulating forecasts of maximum and minimum temperatures for the next day at various locations in Hong Kong. In this paper, the regression model is presented, together with the assessment of its performance. Based on the verification of one year of forecasts, it is found that the root mean square errors (RMSEs) of maximum (minimum) temperature forecasts are from about 1.3 to 2.1 (1.1 to 1.4) degrees, respectively. The regression model is shown to have generally out-performed the operational regional spectral model then operated by HKO. Regional temperature forecast methods of other meteorological or research centers are also surveyed. Equipped with the regression model, the HKO has launched an online regional temperature forecast service for the next day in Hong Kong since March 2008.     

反演寿县TMI微波频率的地表比辐射率(英)

利用一个微波辐射传输模式,晴天下的大气探测廓线,地面的部分观测资料以及卫星观测的亮温,计算了淮河流域能量和水循环实验(HUBEX)中,寿县地区的热带降雨观测卫星微波成像仪(TRMM/TMI)微波频率的地表比辐射率。通过比较所计算的微波地表比辐射率随地表状况的改变,发现地表微波比辐射率随地表状况的变化存在敏感性,并且其变化是合理的。本文中,地表肤温设定等于地表空气温度,并且仅计算了寿县的地表比辐射率,在HUBEX区域上的地表比辐射率的计算需要更多的观测资料。     

An Analysis of the Discontinuity in Chinese Radiosonde Temperature Data Using Satellite Observation as a Reference

Reconciling upper-air temperature trends derived from radiosonde and satellite observations is a necessary step to confidently determine the global warming rate. This study examines the raw and homogenized radiosonde observations over China and compares them with layer-mean atmospheric temperatures derived from satellite microwave observations for the lower-troposphere(TLT), mid-troposphere(TMT), upper-troposphere(TUT), and lower-stratosphere(TLS) by three research groups. Comparisons are for averages over China, excluding the Tibetan Plateau, and at individual stations where metadata contain information on radiosonde instrument changes. It is found that major differences between the satellite and radiosonde observations are related to artificial systematic changes. The radiosonde system updates in the early 2000 s over China caused significant discontinuities and led the radiosonde temperature trends to exhibit less warming in the middle and upper troposphere and more cooling in the lower stratosphere than satellite temperatures. Homogenized radiosonde data have been further adjusted by using the shift-point adjustment approaches to match with satellite products for China averages. The obtained trends during 1979–2015 from the re-adjusted radiosonde observation are respectively 0.203 ± 0.066, 0.128 ± 0.044, 0.034 ± 0.039, and –0.329 ± 0.135 K decade^–1 for TLT, TMT, TUT, and TLS equivalents. Compared to satellite trends, the re-adjusted radiosonde trends are within 0.01 K decade^–1 for TMT and TUT, 0.054 K decade^–1 warmer for TLT, and 0.051 K decade^–1 cooler for TLS. The results suggest that the use of satellite data as a reference is helpful in identifying and removing inhomogeneities of radiosonde temperatures over China and reconciling their trends to satellite microwave observations. Future efforts are to homogenize radiosonde temperatures at individual stations over China by using similar approaches.     

利用FY-1D极轨气象卫星分裂窗区通道计算陆表温度

根据理论和经验上已证明的地表温度与AVHRR窗区通道4、5的亮度温度存在线性或非线性关系, 通过对2818条全球晴空大气廓线做不同比辐射率地表的FY-1D窗区通道4、5辐射率的模拟计算, 推导出FY-1D极轨气象卫星的红外通道4、5亮温与地表温度的二次回归关系式。同时详细介绍了由这一回归关系式和FY-1D高分辨率图像传输 (HRPT) 遥测数据计算陆表温度的方法, 最后给出陆表温度计算结果的精度:用中国地面气象台站的0 cm地温观测数据与相同时刻的分辨率为0.01°×0.01°经纬度的卫星陆表温度相对比, 两者非常吻合, 绝大部分台站|ΔT|＜3.0 K。     

Estimating actual rainfall from satellite rainfall products

The lack of uncertainty measures in operational satellite rainfall (SR) products leads to a situation where users of the SR products know that there are significant errors in the products, but they have no quantitative information about the distribution of these errors. The authors propose a semiparametric model to characterize the conditional distribution of actual rainfall (AR) given measures from SR products. The model consists of two components: a conditional gamma density given each SR, and a smooth functional relationship between the gamma parameters and SR. The model is developed for monthly rainfall, estimated from a satellite with sampling frequency once a day, averaged over an area of 512 × 512 km² in the Mississippi River basin. The conditional distribution results are more informative than deterministic SR products since the whole conditional distribution enables users to take appropriate actions according to their own risk assessments and cost/benefit analyses.     

地表温度-归一化植被指数特征空间干旱监测方法的改进及应用研究

地表温度-归一化植被指数(Ts-NDVI)特征空间干旱监测方法易受到监测期地表湿度、植被覆盖状况和卫星观测质量的影响,导致特征空间干、湿边不稳定,在基于长时间、大范围卫星观测资料的基础上对Ts-NDVI特征空间方法进行改进,将其称为通用特征空间方法.首先基于某观测时段,单独构建每年基于该单一年份单一时段卫星观测数据的T...     

HIRS/2 亮温直接应用于数值预报的试验研究

将极轨卫星HIRS/2探测仪的高分辨率亮温资料，经过定标、定位和其它一些预处理后，不经过反演，直接和其它观测资料一起用最优内插(OI)方法进行分析，给出数值预报初始场，并用国家气象中心的准业务有限区预报模式做预报试验。对比试验结果表明，在数值预报中直接使用亮温比使用反演资料更好。     

A three-dimensional satellite retrieval method for atmospheric temperature and moisture profiles

A three-dimensional variational method is proposed to simultaneously retrieve the 3-D atmospheric temperature and moisture profiles from satellite radiance measurements. To include both vertical structure and the horizontal patterns of the atmospheric temperature and moisture, an EOF technique is used to decompose the temperature and moisture field in a 3-D space. A number of numerical simulations are conducted and they demonstrate that the 3-D method is less sensitive to the observation errors compared to the 1-D method. When the observation error is more than 2.0 K, to get the best results, the truncation number for the EOF＇s expansion have to be restricted to 2 in the 1-D method, while it can be set as large as 40 in a 3-D method. This results in the truncation error being reduced and the retrieval accuracy being improved in the 3-D method. Compared to the 1-D method, the rms errors of the 3-D method are reduced by 48% and 36% for the temperature and moisture retrievals, respectively. Using the real satellite measured brightness temperatures at 0557 UTC 31 July 2002, the temperature and moisture profiles are retrieved over a region （20°-45°N, 100°- 125°E） and compared with 37 collocated radiosonde observations. The results show that the retrieval accuracy with a 3-D method is significantly higher than those with the 1-D method.     

Estimation of urban heat island intensity using biases in surface air temperature simulated by a nonhydrostatic regional climate model

This study demonstrates that urban heat island (UHI) intensity can be estimated by comparing observational data and the outputs of a well-developed high-resolution regional climate model. Such an estimate is possible because the observations include the effects of UHI, whereas the model used does not include urban effects. Therefore, the errors in the simulated surface air temperature, defined as the difference between simulated and observed temperatures (simulated minus observed), are negative in urban areas but 0 in rural areas. UHI intensity is estimated by calculating the difference in temperature error between urban and rural areas. Our results indicate that overall UHI intensity in Japan is 1.5 K and that the intensity is greater in nighttime than in daytime, consistent with the previous studies. This study also shows that root mean square error and the magnitude of systematic error for the annual mean temperature are small (within 1.0 K).     

Evaluation of the Community Microwave Emission Model Coupled with the Community Land Model over East Asia

The Community Microwave Emission Model (CMEM) developed by the European Centre for Me-dium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) can provide a link between surface states and satellite observations and simulate the passive microwave brightness temperature of the surface at low frequencies (from 1 GHz to 20 GHz).This study evaluated the performance of the CMEM cou-pled with the Community Land Model (CLM) (CMEM-CLM) using C-band (6.9 GHz) microwave brightness temperatures from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer on Earth Observing System (AMSR-E) over East Asia.Preliminary results support the argument that the simulated brightness temperatures of CMEM-CLM from July 2005 to June 2010 are comparable to AMSR-E observational data.CMEM-CLM performed better for vertical polarization,for which the root mean square error was approximately 15 K,compared to over 30 K for horizontal polarization.An evaluation performed over seven sub-regions in China indicated that CMEM-CLM was able to capture the temporal evolution of C-band brightness temperatures well,and the best correlation with AMSR-E appeared over western Northwest China (over 0.9 for vertical polarization).However,larger biases were found over southern North China and the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River.     

Equatorial Indian Ocean evaporation estimates from operational meteorological satellites and some inferences in the context of monsoon onset and activity

The estimation of evaporation from the sea surface is not yet achieved adequately by remote sensing techniques, in general. However, for approximate averaged estimates over moderate space and time scales over a specific tropical region, e.g., weekly values over the Indian Ocean as needed in monsoon moisture diagnosis, it may be possible to extrapolate satellite wind and humidity data to the ocean surface and then use bulk aerodynamic parameterization for estimating evaporation. In the present investigation, GOES low-level cloud winds and TIROS-N moisture profiles over the Indian Ocean are extrapolated to the ocean surface. The planetary boundary layer (PBL) wind shear is obtained over different sub-regions and periods during the monsoon season, by reference to objectively analysed fields. These shear values are applied to GOES satellite winds to obtain sea-surface winds. The humidity extrapolation was based on (i) an exponential fit for water vapour density and (ii) a vertical distribution of relative humidity approximately proportional to atmospheric pressure. The exchange coefficient is varied slightly depending on wind speed and boundary-layer stability inferred approximately from TIROS-N sea surface temperatures and temperature profiles. The evaporation estimate as based on these satellite parameters is assessed by comparison with ships' surface observations. Sensible heat exchange is also estimated and assessed. Some inferences based on these estimates are also presented, in relation to monsoon onset and activity.     

塔克拉玛干沙漠腹地1961-1998年逐月平均气温序列的重建

 利用塔里木盆地周边27个气象站1961-2006年逐月平均气温和塔中气象站1999-2006年逐月平均气温资料,同时选取1961-2006年NCEP/NCAR 2.5°×2.5°经纬度距地表2 m的月平均气温再分析格点资料,分别用逐步回归分析、EOF分解和NCEP资料3种方法对塔中气象站1961-1998年历年逐月平均气温序列进行了恢复与重建,分析了误差,并与周边气象站的变化特征进行对比。结果表明,逐步回归和EOF法都能够作为重建塔中逐月平均气温的方法,但相对而言,逐步回归法重建的序列误差更小,平均拟合绝对误差为0.3℃,最大绝对误差为1.9℃。而NCEP/NCAR资料由于冬季存在明显的系统性误差,数值显著偏高,不能用于塔中气温序列的重建。