Adaptation to climate change in marine capture fisheries

This paper responds to the challenge of how and when to adapt marine capture fisheries to climate change by (1) providing a set of fisheries policy options to climate change; (2) developing a risk and vulnerability assessment and management decision-making framework for adaptation; and (3) describing the possible strategies and tactics for ex ante and ex post climate adaptation in the marine environment. Its contributions include (1) a discussion of how management objectives and instruments influence resilience and adaptation; (2) a decision-making process to assess vulnerabilities to climate change and to manage adaptation responses; (3) an inter-temporal framework to assist decision-makers on when to adapt; (4) a risk and simulation approach to confront the uncertainties of the possible losses due to climate change and the net benefits of adaptation; (5) an explanation of how adaptive co-management can promote flexible adaptation responses and also strengthen adaptation capacity; and (6) a selection of possible ‘win–win’ management actions.     

Impacts of climate variability and change on fishery-based livelihoods

There is increasing concern over the consequences of global warming for the food security and livelihoods of the world's 36 million fisherfolk and the nearly 1.5 billion consumers who rely on fish for more than 20% of their dietary animal protein. With mounting evidence of the impacts of climate variability and change on aquatic ecosystems, the resulting impacts on fisheries livelihoods are likely to be significant, but remain a neglected area in climate adaptation policy. Drawing upon our research and the available literature, and using a livelihoods framework, this paper synthesizes the pathways through which climate variability and change impact fisherfolk livelihoods at the household and community level. We identify current and potential adaptation strategies and explore the wider implications for local livelihoods, fisheries management and climate policies. Responses to climate change can be anticipatory or reactive and should include: (1) management approaches and policies that build the livelihood asset base, reducing vulnerability to multiple stressors, including climate change; (2) an understanding of current response mechanisms to climate variability and other shocks in order to inform planned adaptation; (3) a recognition of the opportunities that climate change could bring to the sector; (4) adaptive strategies designed with a multi-sector perspective; and (5) a recognition of fisheries potential contribution to mitigation efforts.     

Impacts of climate change on commercial fish stocks in Norwegian waters

The Norwegian fishing areas extend over various marine ecosystems that will respond differently to climate change. In the North Sea the productivity of the boreal fish species are likely to decrease under global warming and new warm-water species are expected to become more abundant. In the arctic marine ecosystem of the Barents Sea the fish productivity is expected to increase and their distributions expand northward and eastward under global warming increasing the importance of the Russian as well as the Norwegian sectors of the Barents. In the past, decadal-scale climate variations have been shown to strongly influence productivity and distributions of fish stocks. The importance of such shorter-term variations are expected to continue also under global warming. Under global warming the optimum temperature for fish farming along the Norwegian coast will be displaced northwards from the northern part of West Norway towards the Helgeland coast.     

Optimising fisheries management in relation to tuna catches in the western central Pacific Ocean: A review of research priorities and opportunities

Some of the most important development goals for the countries and territories of the Western and Central Pacific Ocean (WCPO) involve the sustainable management of their fisheries in light of environmental, economic and social uncertainties. The responses of fish populations to variability in the marine environment have implications for decision making processes associated with resource management. There is still considerable uncertainty in estimating the responses of tuna populations to short-to-medium-term variability and longer-term change in the oceanic environment. A workshop was organised to examine how advances in oceanography, fisheries science and fisheries economics could be applied to the tuna fisheries of the WCPO and in doing so identify research priorities to improve understanding relevant to progressing management. Research priorities identified included: (i) improved parameterisation of end to end ecosystem model components, processes and feedbacks through expanded biological observations and incorporation of higher resolution climate models; (ii) development of seasonal and inter-annual forecasting tools enabling management responses to short-term variability in tuna distributions and abundances; (iii) improved understanding of the population dynamics of and the energy transfer efficiencies between food web components; (iv) assessment of the optimal value of access rights and overall fishery value under multiple scenarios of tuna distribution and abundance and influences on decision making by fisheries managers and fleets and (v) development of management strategy evaluation frameworks for utilisation in the implementing and testing of fishery management procedures and to help prioritise research directions and investment. Issues discussed and research priorities identified during the workshop have synergies with other internationally managed fisheries and therefore are applicable to many other fisheries.     

Ecological changes justifying termination or revision of EEZ and EFZ boundaries

Treaties, establishing boundaries to exclusive economic or exclusive fisheries zones, are generally based on environmental and economic circumstances. They delimit maritime entitlements, which are dependent upon coastal geography and they must, as a matter of law, represent equitable solutions. All perpetual treaties are based on the assumption that the circumstances leading to the conclusion of a treaty remain current as long as the treaty is enforceable. However, climate-related changes - such as sea level rise, coastal erosion, extreme weather events, ocean warming and ocean acidification - are altering the environmental circumstances that are essential to many maritime boundary agreements.An unforeseen fundamental change of circumstances can be invoked as grounds for terminating a treaty when the change relates to an essential basis of the treaty and radically transforms the obligations still to be performed. However, a fundamental change cannot justify termination of a treaty if it is caused by the party invoking it or if the treaty establishes a boundary. This rule is codified in Article 62 of the Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties.Treaties delimiting sovereign rights to fisheries are not actual boundary treaties because the travaux préparatoires suggest that the boundary exclusion covers only boundaries delimiting territorial sovereignty. Furthermore, the reason for excluding boundary treaties - the need for permanence and stability - is less pertinent for maritime frontiers that fluctuate until settled through treaties or adjudication. Therefore, maritime boundaries can be subject to termination when their essential basis is affected by fundamental environmental changes.     

Overview of West African fisheries under climate change: Impacts,vulnerabilities and adaptive responses of the artisanal and industrial sectors

Climate change affects ocean conditions, fish stocks and hence fisheries. In West Africa, climate change impacts on fisheries were projected to be mainly negative through multi-facet ways. However, analysis of adaptation responses of fishers to climate change impacts is scarce. This paper reviews the impacts on climate change on fisheries in West Africa and discusses the potential adaptation strategies adopted by both the artisanal and industrial fishing sectors. Overall, climate change and over-exploitation have altered species composition of fisheries catches in West Africa. The effect of ocean warming on fisheries is indicated by the increase in dominance of warmer water species in the landings, shown from an increase in Mean Temperature of Catch, in the region. Climate change induced changes in potential catch and species composition, which inherently have similar symptoms as over-exploitation, are expected to have repercussions on the economic and social performance of fisheries. Both artisanal and industrial sectors may adapt to these changes mainly through expansion of fishing ground that increases operation costs. Our results highlight that historical changes in target species are more common in industrial than artisanal fisheries. This result challenges the prevailing assumption that artisanal fisheries, given their limited movement capacity, would adapt to climate change by shifting target species and/or gear type.     

Profitability and economic drivers of small pelagic fisheries in West Africa: A twenty year perspective

Small pelagics are the main fish resource in North West Africa. In Senegal, these are mainly sardinellas (Sardinella aurita and S. maderensis) and bonga shad (Ethmalosa fimbriata). The fisheries, mainly encircling gillnets and purse seines, are predominantly performed by artisanal fishers and are of great importance for the Senegalese economy and for food security in the region. However, in recent years, the main conditions for these fisheries have changed and recent observations have shown strong declines in profit. An analysis over the last twenty years (1993–2013) show that the fisheries lost profit between 65% and 100% while operating costs increased by 25% and 90%, for encircling gillnet and purse seine, respectively. While the fuel price dominates as determining factor during the survey period, important other drivers during the last five years were a decrease in fish biomass and an increase in fishing effort.     

Social indicators of vulnerability for fishing communities in the Northern Gulf of California,Mexico: Implications for climate change

Marine fisheries support the livelihoods of millions of people worldwide. These fisheries and the communities that depend on them are highly vulnerable to climate change and other interacting anthropogenic threats. The cumulative and interacting effects of these stressors could potentially produce declines in fish production, which would significantly impact artisanal fishers. Assessing relative vulnerability of fishing communities to anthropogenic stressors is an important first step to identifying mitigation or adaptation strategies. This study assessed the vulnerability of 12 coastal communities in the Northern Gulf of California to disruptions in fishing activities from anthropogenic stressors, including climate change. The Northern Gulf is a megadiverse area and a major source of fishery resources. Quantitative indicator indices based on secondary and primary data were developed to assess the three aspects of vulnerability: sensitivity, exposure, and adaptive capacity. The key components of vulnerability varied amongst communities. Vulnerability was higher in communities with higher fishing dependence and lower socioeconomic diversification. The approach presented here provides important insights into the type of policy actions that might be needed in different communities for adaptation and mitigation.     

Geographical distribution of fish catches and temperature variations in the northeast Atlantic since 1945

Warming of the northeast Atlantic is expected to affect the location and productivity of fish stocks. It is examined whether variations in catches of cod, herring, mackerel, anchovy and sardines in the ICES statistical areas are related to variations in ocean temperature. Temperatures at certain locations along the Norwegian coast are taken as proxies for temperatures in the Norwegian Sea and the North Sea. It is found that the catches of cod in the North Sea are inversely correlated with temperature and that recruitment and catches of cod in the Norwegian Sea and the Barents Sea are positively related to temperature. There is also some indication of a positive correlation between temperature and the catches of mackerel in the North Sea and the Norwegian Sea, and between temperature and the catches of sardines in the North Sea.     

Linkages between Alaskan sockeye salmon abundance, growth at sea, and climate, 1955–2002

We tested the hypothesis that increased growth of salmon during early marine life contributed to greater survival and abundance of salmon following the 1976/1977 climate regime shift and that this, in turn, led to density-dependent reductions in growth during late marine stages. Annual measurements of Bristol Bay (Bering Sea) and Chignik (Gulf of Alaska) sockeye salmon scale growth from 1955 to 2002 were used as indices of body growth. During the first and second years at sea, growth of both stocks tended to be higher after the 1976–1977 climate shift, whereas growth during the third year and homeward migration was often below average. Multiple regression models indicated that return per spawner of Bristol Bay sockeye salmon and adult abundance of western and central Alaska sockeye salmon were positively correlated with growth during the first 2 years at sea and negatively correlated with growth during later life stages. After accounting for competition between Bristol Bay sockeye and Asian pink salmon, age-specific adult length of Bristol Bay salmon increased after the 1976–1977 regime shift, then decreased after the 1989 climate shift. Late marine growth and age-specific adult length of Bristol Bay salmon was exceptionally low after 1989, possibly reducing their reproductive potential. These findings support the hypothesis that greater marine growth during the first 2 years at sea contributed to greater salmon survival and abundance, which in turn led to density-dependent growth during later life stages when size-related mortality was likely lower. Our findings provide new evidence supporting the importance of bottom-up control in marine ecosystems and highlight the complex dynamics of species interactions that continually change as salmon grow and mature in the ocean.     

From reductionism to systems thinking: How the shipping sector can address sulphur regulation and tackle climate change

The shipping sector is required to reduce fuel sulphur content to 0.1% in Emission Control Areas by 2015 and to 0.5% globally by 2020. Although this is demanding, a greater challenge for all sectors is climate change. However, the three options to comply with sulphur regulation do little to address this challenge. With a deep-seated change to the type of fuel burnt in marine engines, this should be seen as an opportunity to explore co-benefits of sulphur and carbon reduction – instead of taking a short-sighted approach to the problem. It is argued here that the upcoming sulphur regulations should be postponed and instead, a co-ordinated suite of regulations should be implemented that tackles cumulative CO₂ emissions and localised SO_x emissions in chorus. This would ensure that less developed, yet more radical, step-change forms of propulsion such as wind, battery and biofuels are introduced from the outset – reducing the risks of infrastructure lock-in and preventing the lock-out of technologies that can meaningfully reduce absolute emissions from the sector.     

西北太平洋热带气旋频数及生成位置的气候变化研究进展

自20世纪70年代末期以来,西北太平洋的热带气旋在全球变暖的背景下主要发生了两种宏观的气候变化：一个是热带气旋生成频数呈现年代际减少,尤其是在东南部海域;另一个则是其生成与活动位置等总体特征有向西北偏移的趋势。本文对这两个方面的研究进展进行了概述。近些年的研究表明,垂直风切变的增强可能是夏秋季热带气旋频数减少的最主要原因,这与太平洋-印度洋海面温度变化导致的大尺度环境变化有密切联系。同样有研究认为北大西洋海面温度的多年代际振荡对近期西北太平洋热带气旋生成频数的减少也非常重要。但西北太平洋西部强热带气旋的频数呈现出增加的趋势,这可能与东亚近海海面温度的显著升高有关,尽管这种变化是否可信仍有争议。近20年来,西北太平洋热带气旋活动普遍出现西北移倾向,包括生成位置和路径位置,这种变化可能受到了ENSO变异及20世纪90年代末期太平洋气候突变的调控。同时,热带环流的极向扩张又导致了热带气旋的有利环境向北扩张,因此西北太平洋热带气旋活动也出现极向迁移的趋势。     

Fisheries privatization,social transitions,and well-being in Kodiak,Alaska

Scholars and fishermen alike view the privatization of fishing rights as a fundamental driver of social change in fishing communities. This article presents the results of a mixed-methods ethnographic study in Kodiak, Alaska, exploring how fisheries privatization processes remake fishery systems. Findings from this study suggest that a diverse range of fishery participants share core values about the social dimensions of fishery systems. Support or opposition to past privatization processes tended to be articulated in reference to how these core values (e.g., hard work, opportunity, and fairness) were perceived to have been strengthened or eroded by such processes. Data from this study suggest that while still widespread in the Kodiak fishing community, core social values in fishing may be changing as a result of privatization processes. Although ethnographic and survey data showed a range of perspectives on the effects of privatization on fishing and the Kodiak community, study participants tended to talk about privatization as a significant change that had divisive, negative impacts in the community. Crew members and the next generation of fishermen were identified as disproportionately affected by privatization processes. Ethnographic data detail important shifts in the power, status, and livelihoods of crew members. Nearly all Kodiak fishery participants interviewed expressed concern about the future of fisheries access in the community for the next generation, in large part because of the substantial financial barriers to entry generated by privatization of fisheries access. Many discussed the need for more entry-level opportunities necessary for access in all fisheries.     

St Helena Bay (southern Benguela) then and now: muted climate signals,large human impact

The development of suitable reference states for ecosystem-based management requires documentation of changes in structure and functioning of marine ecosystems, including assessment of the relative importance of bottom-up and top-down processes as drivers of change. We used monitoring data available from St Helena Bay, the most productive bay and an important nursery area situated on the west coast of South Africa, during 1950–2010 to reveal changes in the abiotic and biotic components. St Helena Bay in the 1950s showed similarities to 2000–2010 in terms of wind patterns, hydrology and phytoplankton. Upwelling, oxygen and nutrient concentrations in subthermocline water displayed pronounced decadal-scale variability. Primary production in St Helena Bay is variable, but consistently higher than that on the adjacent Namaqua shelf. Zooplankton size composition and biomass in August have changed markedly since the 1950s. During 2001–2010, mesozooplankton biomass in autumn was considerably lower than in summer, probably due to predation by small pelagic fish. Pelagic fish catch patterns and distributions have altered dramatically. Conservation measures, implemented to reverse past negative human impact, have benefitted marine mammals, the abundance of which has increased in the area, but additional conservation measures are necessary to reverse the decline in African penguins Spheniscus demersus. St Helena Bay shows a muted response to long-term change in the southern Benguela, with marked decadal variability but no clear long-term trend in oceanography and biogeochemistry. Changes in ecosystem boundary conditions and fishing pressure cannot be ignored as important drivers of change in the southern Benguela since the 1950s.     

Decadal variability of the shallow Pacific meridional overturning circulation: Relation to tropical sea surface temperatures in observations and climate change models

In this study, we use existing observational datasets to evaluate 20th century climate simulations of the tropical Pacific. The emphasis of our work is decadal variability of the shallow meridional overturning circulation, which links the tropical and subtropical Pacific Ocean. In observations, this circulation is characterized by equatorward geostrophic volume transport convergence in the interior ocean pycnocline across 9°N and 9°S. Historical hydrographic data indicate that there has been a decreasing trend in this convergence over the period 1953–2001 of about 11 Sverdrup (1 Sv = 10⁶ m³ s⁻¹), with maximum decade-to-decade variations of 7–11 Sv. The transport time series is highly anti-correlated with sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the central and eastern tropical Pacific, implying that variations in meridional overturning circulation are directly linked to decadal variability and trends in tropical SST. These relationships are explored in 18 model simulations of 20th century climate from 14 state-of-the-art coupled climate models. Significant correlation exists between meridional volume transport convergence and tropical SST in the majority of the models over the last half century. However, the magnitude of transport variability on decadal time scales in the models is underestimated while at the same time modeled SST variations are more sensitive to that transport variability than in the observations. The effects of the meridional overturning circulation on SST trends in most the models is less clear. Most models show no trend in meridional transport convergence and underestimate the trend in eastern tropical Pacific SST. The eddy permitting MIROCH model is the only model that reasonably reproduces the observed trends in transport convergence, tropical Pacific SST, and SST gradient along the equator over the last half century. If the observed trends and those simulated in the MIROCH model are ultimately related to greenhouse gas forcing, these results suggest that the Bjerknes feedback, by affecting pycnocline transport convergences, may enhance warming that arises from anthropogenic forcing in the eastern tropical Pacific.     

A preliminary assessment of threats to arctic marine mammals and their conservation in the coming decades

Over the next several decades, arctic marine mammals will face threats from six areas of human influence: climate change, environmental contaminants, offshore oil and gas activities, shipping, hunting, and commercial fisheries. This paper reviews these factors, the nature and magnitude of the threats they pose, current scientific understanding and management of those threats, and the potential for effective conservation action. Climate change, offshore oil and gas activities, and commercial fisheries likely pose the greatest threats. Addressing the combined effects of all six factors, however, will be particularly difficult but essential to prevent declines beyond those that have already occurred.     

Climate driven changes in subtidal kelp forest communities in NW Spain

Reconstructions suggest a massive decline of nearly 1400 ha of kelp forest in North Western Spain in 2007. In line with global rising temperatures, we hypothesized that Sea Surface Temperature (SST) surpassed a lethal threshold for kelp. We examined whether changes in SST correlated to the proposed decline in kelp forest. All investigated SST characteristics suggested to affect kelp abundance increased significantly during the past thirty years, reaching extreme values during the last decade. In addition over the past two decades, the landscape formerly dominated by both cold and warm temperate canopy forming and understory species changed to one dominated by warm temperate understory species, resulting in a loss of vertical community structure. Fisheries landing data of kelp associated species was used to support the suggested change in kelp abundance. Subsequent recovery of the kelp appears to be occurring in deeper waters.     

Institutional and ethical dimensions of resilience in fishing systems: Perspectives from co-managed fisheries in the Pacific Northwest

Resilience defines the ability of a system to retain control of function and structure despite changing conditions. In human-natural systems this is related to the capabilities of social institutions. This paper presents insights into institutional and ethical dimensions of resilience, focusing on case studies in the Pacific Northwest that involve cooperative management of Pacific salmon by tribal, state and federal governments. Several characteristics enhance resilience, including institutional nesting and linkages, responsiveness, flexibility, adaptive capacity, opportunities for cross-cutting cleavages, collaborative problem definition, routinization of conflict, knowledge generation, dissemination and feedback loops, and ethical underpinnings that enlarge the boundaries of community.