北极航道的贸易替代效应与贸易互补效应分析

随着北极冰雪加速消融,北极航道在国际贸易运输中的关注度日益提升。文章采用理论模型进行分析,认为北极航道通过贸易替代效应与贸易互补效应对世界贸易格局产生影响。研究发现北极航道开通将：提升航道沿线各国间的贸易潜力,改变沿线国与非沿线国间部分贸易活动的流向;催生北极航道沿线国之间部分贸易活动的产生,改变北极航道沿线国之间部分贸易活动的流量。     

On the future navigability of Arctic sea routes: High-resolution projections of the Arctic Ocean and sea ice

The rapid Arctic summer sea ice reduction in the last decade has lead to debates in the maritime industries on the possibility of an increase in cargo transportation in the region. Average sailing times on the North Sea Route along the Siberian Coast have fallen from 20 days in the 1990s to 11 days in 2012–2013, attributed to easing sea ice conditions along the Siberian coast. However, the economic risk of exploiting the Arctic shipping routes is substantial. Here a detailed high-resolution projection of ocean and sea ice to the end of the 21st century forced with the RCP8.5 IPCC emission scenario is used to examine navigability of the Arctic sea routes. In summer, opening of large areas of the Arctic Ocean previously covered by pack ice to the wind and surface waves leads to Arctic pack ice cover evolving into the Marginal Ice Zone. The emerging state of the Arctic Ocean features more fragmented thinner sea ice, stronger winds, ocean currents and waves. By the mid 21st century, summer season sailing times along the route via the North Pole are estimated to be 13–17 days, which could make this route as fast as the North Sea Route.     

北极航道对世界贸易格局的影响路径和机理

为深化对北极航道重要性的认知,促进我国对北极航道的开发利用,文章在概述世界贸易格局的发展阶段及其主要影响因素的基础上,分析北极航道对世界贸易格局的影响路径和机理。研究结果表明:"二战"结束后,世界贸易格局经历美国单极,美国、欧洲和日本三足鼎立以及区域多极化3个发展阶段;世界贸易格局的主要影响因素包括贸易通道、技术革命、产业转移和国家政策;北极航道通过缩短海运距离和产生新的海运航线2条路径,在增加贸易流量的同时改变贸易流向,从而影响世界贸易格局;其中,缩短海运距离的影响机理包括提高贸易频率、降低贸易成本和改善贸易环境,产生新的海运航线的影响机理包括促进相关产业结构调整、改变世界海运格局和增加新的能源供给。     

“冰上丝绸之路”航线开发利用系统建设研究

北冰洋冰层融化导致的航线变化将对我国航运及国际海运贸易产生重大影响。我国积极回应俄罗斯“冰上丝绸之路”共建邀约,旨在将北极开发合作与“一带一路”倡议连接,其建设重点是对“冰上丝绸之路”海上运输通道的开发利用。为推进我国对冰上丝绸之路航线的开发利用进程,构建了“冰上丝绸之路”航线开发利用系统,包括以航运为中心的应用子系统、以战略管理为中心的开发子系统、以专家为中心的咨询子系统和以协调为中心的发展子系统。在构建各子系统框架的基础上,提出了“冰上丝绸之路”航线开发利用系统的结构、功能以及关键技术。     

气候变化背景下北极航线综合评估模型研究

在全球持续变暖的影响下,北极部分地区夏季出现无冰期,北极航线具有更短的航运距离和相对稳定的地缘政治人文环境。文章从气候变化角度出发,构建包含航行环境模块、航迹规划模块和航线经济效益模块在内的综合评估模型,评估北极地区海冰、风、浪、流等气象水文地理要素对船舶航速的影响,确定北极地区的可航行天数;在此基础上,利用A-Star算法寻找北极航线的最优路径,并分析该路径上的航运经济效益;采用该评估模型对比在RCP4.5情景下2050年船舶往返欧亚大陆之间经东北航线与经苏伊士运河航线的经济效益,结果表明,苏伊士运河航线的经济效益更高,北极航线可作为替补航线。     

Implications of Arctic industrial growth and strategies to mitigate future vessel and fishing gear impacts on bowhead whales

The objective of this paper was to investigate and illustrate how insights gained from experience managing human activities in order to protect North Atlantic right whales (Eubalaena glacialis) along the heavily industrialized east coast of North America might be applied in the Arctic, where bowhead whales (Balaena mysticetus) face some of the same risks as right whales. The reduced extent and thickness of sea ice and the resultant longer open-water season have major, complex implications for the Arctic marine ecosystem. Increased maritime ship traffic and commercial fishing in the Arctic are bound to affect bowheads and Native (indigenous) hunting communities who depend on whales for subsistence and cultural identity. Bowheads and right whales were greatly depleted by commercial whaling in the 19th and early 20th centuries. While the Western Arctic bowhead population has been recovering steadily in recent decades, North Atlantic right whales remain highly endangered because of persistent lethal and sublethal vessel strikes and frequent entanglement in commercial fishing gear. Entanglement can be transitory or persistent, with debilitation lasting for months before the animal finally succumbs. Vessel strike and fishing gear trauma has been documented in bowheads, but at a much lower rate than in right whales. Initiatives intended to mitigate the impacts of ship traffic on North Atlantic right whales have included speed limits and routing changes. Those meant to reduce the incidence and severity of entanglements include the modification of gear design and gear deployment practices. Management measures need to be considered in advance in the Arctic in order to minimize the risks to bowhead whales as shipping and industrial fishing expand in the Arctic with ice retreat.     

Adoption of the arctic search and rescue agreement: A shift of the arctic regime toward a hard law basis?

This paper examines the Arctic Search and Rescue Agreement—the first legally-binding instrument negotiated and adopted under the auspices of the Arctic Council—and analyzes its implications for the current Arctic regime. Led by the Arctic Council, the Arctic regime was established in a soft law format. However, the soft law nature and restricted mandates of the Arctic Council have limited its capacity to respond to new issues emerging from climate change, particularly those related to the exploitation of oil and gas reserves, commercial shipping through the region, effects on wildlife, and impacts on indigenous peoples' homelands and culture. The adoption of the Agreement represents a new approach for the Arctic States to respond to these new challenges. At the same time, it does not imply that a legally-binding instrument is necessarily preferable for every issue, and importantly, the new Arctic Agreement does not establish new institutional relationships, suggesting satisfaction among the Arctic States with the existing arrangements. Thus, although the Arctic regime is undoubtedly changing, this change should not be treated today as a shift from soft to hard law. What is more certain is that the Arctic Council will continue to function as a cooperative forum where the Arctic States can address these challenges, and its importance will only increase in coming years.     

Harnessing the wind: A case study of applying Flettner rotor technology to achieve fuel and cost savings for Fiji's domestic shipping industry

For over 5000 years, humans have successfully harnessed the power of wind to transport people and goods across the world's oceans. This research expands on previous studies of the unique Flettner rotor propulsion system and the demonstrable success in reducing fuel consumption and carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions. Recent examples such as Enercon's E-ship 1 have proven seaworthy and economically viable along major shipping routes. The remote Pacific island countries (PICS), however, have the unique characteristics of retaining a remarkable seafaring heritage while remaining on the periphery of global commerce. With data obtained from a field study of Fiji's domestic shipping, this research analyzes the potential for implementing Flettner rotor systems to achieve more economically viable alternatives to the current situation. The findings show that with an incremental approach and the addition of a government fuel savings incentive, the Government Shipping Franchise Scheme (GSFS) subsidies could be significantly lowered for Fiji's ten uneconomical shipping routes. Four scenarios of 5%, 10%, 15%, and 25% fuel savings contrast the baseline data on one extreme with a zero-emissions scenario on the other. The most likely fuel savings scenario of between 10% and 15% results in a 20-year government savings of between 348,042 and 522,063 U.S. dollars and a 20-year cumulative reduction in CO₂ emissions of between 2931 and 4396 t. The paper concludes that Flettner rotors show promising results in reducing fuel consumption and CO₂ emissions and recommends future studies in collaboration with the Fiji government to develop practical strategies of implementation.     

Nudging资料同化对北极海冰密集度预报的改进

北极夏季海冰的快速减少使得北极航道提前开通成为可能。为了给北极冰区船运活动提供及时可靠有效的海冰预报保障,急需提高海冰预报水平。本文基于麻省理工大学通用环流模式(MITgcm),使用牛顿松弛逼近(Nudging)资料同化方法将德国不莱梅大学的第二代先进微波辐射成像仪(AMSR2)海冰密集度资料同化到模式中,建立了北极海冰数值预报系统。设计试验对比3种不同Nudging系数计算方案的改进效果,结果表明选择合适参数后,不同方案均能显著改进海冰密集度初始场。通过设计有无Nudging同化的两组预报试验,结合卫星遥感海冰密集度及中国第五次北极科学考察期间"雪龙"船的走航海冰密集度观测数据,定量分析了Nudging同化方案对北极海冰密集度的24~120 h预报结果的改进效果。结果表明,Nudging同化对120 h内全北极海冰密集度的空间分布和移动单点目标的海冰密集度预报结果均有显著改善;但在海冰变化很小的情况下,Nudging同化试验的24~120 h预报结果均劣于惯性预报结果,说明基于Nudging同化的数值预报系统还需进一步提高预报技巧。     

In quest of an Arctic legal regime : Marine regionalism — a concept of international law evaluated

This article examines the regional approach as a solution to prevent marine pollution in the Arctic Ocean, which may result from land-based sources, offshore operations, and international shipping. It is argued that both the global and unilateral approach are inadequate to protect the polar sea appropriately — for the sake of its relatively untouched environment, the coastal areas of the Arctic states, and for the culture and life style of the indigenous inhabitants. Consequently, this essay assesses the status quo of international marine pollution control as established by conventions and other instruments and leads, after an outline of present regional treaties of the various marine regions, to an application of marine regionalism to the Arctic Ocean.     

基于高效统计模型预测9月北极航道沿线海冰范围

The rapid decrease in Arctic sea ice cover and thickness not only has a linkage with extreme weather in the midlatitudes but also brings more opportunities for Arctic shipping routes and polar resource exploration, both of which motivate us to further understand causes of sea-ice variations and to obtain more accurate estimates of seaice cover in the future. Here, a novel data-driven method, the causal effect networks algorithm, is applied to identify the direct precursors of September sea-ice extent covering the Northern Sea Route and Transpolar Sea Route at different lead times so that statistical models can be constructed for sea-ice prediction. The whole study area was also divided into two parts: the northern region covered by multiyear ice and the southern region covered by seasonal ice. The forecast models of September sea-ice extent in the whole study area(TSIE) and southern region(SSIE) at lead times of 1–4 months can explain over 65% and 79% of the variances, respectively,but the forecast skill of sea-ice extent in the northern region(NSIE) is limited at a lead time of 1 month. At lead times of 1–4 months, local sea-ice concentration and sea-ice thickness have a larger influence on September TSIE and SSIE than other teleconnection factors. When the lead time is more than 4 months, the surface meridional wind anomaly from northern Europe in the preceding autumn or early winter is dominant for September TSIE variations but is comparable to thermodynamic factors for NSIE and SSIE. We suggest that this study provides a complementary approach for predicting regional sea ice and is helpful in evaluating and improving climate models.     

Developing direct shipping across the Taiwan Straits

Direct shipping across the Taiwan Straits has been restricted since 1949 for political reasons. Goods for cross-Straits trade must be transshipped via a third place, such as Hong Kong or a Japanese port. Since commercial activities across the Straits have become increasingly prosperous in recent years, the demand for direct shipping across the Straits is growing critically important and attracts great attention from all sectors. Businessmen who are involved in cross-Straits trade have criticized the higher costs and longer transit time of transshipment. This article explores possible solutions for shipping directly across the Straits. It discusses the mode of negotiation for settling the discrepancies in viewpoints between the two sides, and aims to provide a reference for governments from both sides.     

Is the Northern Sea Route attractive to shipping companies? Some insights from recent ship traffic data

While the media vigorously propagates historic Northern Sea Route (NSR) transits and researchers demonstrate the viability of the NSR, current usage by the shipping industry has been neglected thus far. This study aims to analyse the current ship traffic at NSR using transit data and port call data. The results show that navigation season lasts for five months, and Arc4 and Arc5 vessels are used extensively. Some Asian countries are active participants in the transit activities. NSR seems to be more appealing to liquid, bulk and general cargo transportation. Currently, most activities are still domestic and destinational in nature. The paper provides real statistics that can add value to the viability analysis. It identifies key players of the transits, exhibits trade pattern at NSR, and presents facts that interest shipping companies.     

Environmental issues with Australian ports

Ports and shipping operations are under increased environmental scrutiny in Australia, particularly as so many of Australia's ports and shipping routes are located in or near major environmentally sensitive areas. The environmental risks involved have been highlighted by the publicity given to shipping accidents. Environmental regulations over aspects of port operations, including ballast water management, dredge spoil and waste reception, are also becoming stricter. While port authorities have adopted stringent environmental guidelines, they remain concerned that the full impact of proposed new environmental regulations on maritime industry may not be fully understood. This paper discusses some of the issues involved with achieving a balance between environmental protection and the need to recognise the importance of seaborne trade to Australia and to maintain Australia's competitiveness in international trade.     

Northern opportunities: A strategic review of Canada's Arctic icebreaking services

Climate change presages increasingly ice-free waters in the Canadian Arctic and fundamental reconfiguration of Asia–Europe and Asia–US East Coast marine transportation networks via the Northwest Passage (NWP). Retreating sea ice will impact the annual re-supply of goods to northern communities, natural resource development, cruise ship and adventure tourism activity, and the fishing industry. Reviews of infrastructure to support increased shipping activity and support future developments highlight an ageing Canadian Coast Guard (CCG) icebreaker fleet. This paper aims to debate the need for, and provision, ownership and management of Arctic icebreaking services required to serve a NWP. It reports perceptions by 110 experts of future marine activity in the Canadian Arctic and CCG services, principally Arctic icebreaking, in terms of their effectiveness and efficiency. The extent of possible private involvement is identified and evaluated. The requirements needed to ensure timely and uninterrupted marine transportation from vessels operating in these waters are highlighted.     

Circulation patterns in the lower Arctic Ocean derived from geochemical data

Climatological water-mass structures were identified in the Arctic Ocean using the geochemical dataset in the Hydrochemical Atlas of the Arctic Ocean (HAAC) as well as data on a geochemically conserved parameter, PO₄*, based on phosphate and dissolved oxygen. In the upper ocean above a depth of 500 m, the HAAC was found to reliably depict the boundary between Pacific-Origin Water (P-Water) and Atlantic-Origin Water (A-Water), which is aligned 135°E–45°W near the surface but rotates counterclockwise with depth. Thus, the Arctic and Atlantic oceans exchange high-silicate P-Water and low-silicate A-Water. The PO₄* field in the lower ocean below a depth of 1500 m was analyzed statistically, and the results indicated that the Eurasian Basin receives low-PO₄* Nordic Seas Deep Water, which flows along the bottom from the Greenland Sea. The routes from the upper ocean to the lower ocean were determined. Only the southern portion of the Canada Basin, which receives water from the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas, has high PO₄* levels; the rest of the Amerasian Basin receives low-PO₄* water from the Laptev Sea and/or the Barents Sea. The Eurasian Basin receives moderate levels of PO₄* from the Fram Strait and from the intermediate layer. The intermediate-layer water gradually travels up from the lower ocean and returns to the Atlantic, entraining the subsurface portion. It is likely that high-PO₄* water occasionally flows down from the upper ocean along Greenland, making the Eurasian Basin heterogeneous.     

The environmental management of shipping

The environmental management of shipping requires systematic consideration of the geography of shipping routes, ship types and cargoes, and environments which can form the basis of a classificatory approach to Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA). Beyond this, effective environmental management depends in the first instance upon sound information management including monitoring of the environment, surveillance of shipping and information technology, followed by information assessment including, in particular, risk and environmental impact. The general management dimension includes co-ordination of technical management and organisational aspects related to shipping. It is suggested that effective environmental management of shipping may depend upon a regionalisation of the marine environment for EIA purposes akin to that found in the loadline rules, together with rationalisation of the increasing number of special areas in existence or proposed for this purpose. EIA will have to become an integral part of the overall management system in the shipping industry.     

On coherent ice drift features in the southern Beaufort sea

Previous studies have highlighted reversals in the Beaufort Gyre on regional scales during summer months, and more recently, throughout the annual cycle. In this study we investigate coherent ice drift features associated with individual ice beacons during winter 2008 that may be a signature of ice–coast interactions, atmospheric and/or oceanic forcing. Examined in particular are three case studies associated with reversals in ice beacon trajectories in January and April of 2008; case I corresponds to a meander reversal event in January, case II to a loop reversal event in April, and case III to a meander reversal event located to the northeast of the Mackenzie Canyon in April. An assessment of atmospheric and oceanic conditions during these reversal events shows enhanced ocean–sea-ice–atmosphere dynamical coupling during the Case I meander reversal event in January and comparatively weak coupling during the Case II loop and Case III meander reversal event in April. Absolute (single-particle/beacon) and relative (two-particle/beacon) dispersion results demonstrate dominant meridional ice drift displacement and inter-beacon separation for Case I relative to Cases II and III indicative of ice–ice and ice–coast interactions in January. The results from this investigation provide an ice drift case study analysis relevant to, and template for, high-resolution sea ice dynamic modeling studies essential for safety and hazard assessments of transportation routes and shipping lanes, ice forecasting, and nutrient and contaminant transport by sea ice in the Arctic.     

Effect of the East Siberian barrier on the echinoderm dispersal in the Arctic Ocean

The distributional patterns were analyzed for 43 species and 33 genera of echinoderms in the Laptev and East Siberian seas and for 59 species and 35 genera of the asteroid species in the Arctic Ocean. The probable colonization route through the Arctic was suggested for each species based on (1) the distributional patterns of the Arctic species, (2) the distributional patterns of the closely related species, and (3) the location of the center of the diversity of the species belonging to a certain genus. The species of the Pacific origin prevailed in the asteroid fauna of the Arctic seas. The asteroid species diversity and the ratio of the species of Pacific origin decreased from the Barents towards the Laptev Sea and increased, respectively, in the East Siberian and the Chukchee seas. The species range limits were found for 19 species in the East Siberian Sea compared to only 3 species in the Laptev Sea. The East Siberian Sea was a limiting area for the dispersal of four species groups: (1) invaders from the North Pacific dispersing along the Asian coast of the Arctic (shallow-water stenobathic species), (2) invaders from the North Pacific dispersing along the American coast of the Arctic and further on back into the Arctic along the Eurasian coast (secondarily Atlantic species); (3) originally invaders from the Northern Atlantic; (4) representatives of the Arctic autochthonous fauna. A great width of the biotic boundaries (i.e., the zones of the species range boundaries crowding) was typical for the Arctic Basin, which was a sign of their young geological age.     

北极海冰输出区域海冰运动变化特征及其与北极航道适航性的关系

随着北极地区气候变暖的加剧,北极海冰正在急剧消融,海冰的减少增加了北极地区航道的适航性。本文利用遥感数据反演得到的海冰运动产品对北极海冰输出区域以及东北航道以北区域的海冰运动特征进行了量化。结果显示,从北极中央海域向弗拉姆海峡以及格陵兰海流出海冰的南向位移量呈现出显著增长趋势,海冰的平均南向位移量在2007-2014年间达到1511 km,是2007年之前（617 km）的两倍以上,反映了北极穿极流（TDS）强度在不断增强。通过长时间序列分析发现,春季东北航道以北区域的海冰北向漂移速度在喀拉海呈现+0.04 厘米/秒/年的显著增长趋势（P<0.05）。海冰北向漂移对于东北航道的开通具有显著的影响,在拉普捷夫海与喀拉海,海冰北向运动速度与航道适航期的决定系数分别达到0.33（P<0.001）和0.15（P<0.05）。东西伯利亚海、拉普捷夫海以及喀拉海存在冰间湖区域的春季海冰面积变化与航道的适航期密切相关,海冰的北向漂移对拉普捷夫海和喀拉海的海冰面积减少也有显著影响,这说明北向漂移促进了海冰的离岸输送,造成海冰面积减少的同时形成冰间水道或冰间湖促使航道开通。为探究大气环流指数对海冰运动以及东北航道适航期的影响,本文利用大气再分析数据计算了中央北极指数（CAI）和北极大气偶极子异常（DA）指数。相关性分析表明,CAI比DA更能解释东北航道的适航期,而且CAI能够解释北极海冰输出区域海冰南向位移量变化的45%。最近10年,夏季正相位的CAI进一步加强,通过加强海冰离岸输运和冰间湖活动加剧了东北航道区域海冰变薄及其强度变弱,从而促进了东北航道的开通。