THESEUS decision support system for coastal risk management

While planning coastal risk management strategies, coastal managers need to assess risk across a range of spatial and temporal scales. GIS-based tools are one efficient way to support them in the decision making process through a scenarios analysis starting from social, economic and environmental information integrated into a common platform. However, this integration process requires a significant effort from a team of scientists in terms of a) identifying the appropriate scales and data resolution for analysing social, environmental and economic issues; b) selecting and linking an appropriate set of tools to build a coupled model; c) representing key emerging (and hence challenging) research issues, such as risk perception and social resilience in the model; d) developing multi-criteria analysis to integrate social, environmental, economic impacts; and e) accounting for the expectations of the stakeholders and therefore optimizing the opportunity for them to interact with the tool development and with the final tool itself.In this spirit, this paper presents an open-source Spatial Decision Support System developed within the THESEUS Project to help decision makers to scopeg optimal strategies to minimise coastal risks. The exploratory tool allows the users to perform an integrated coastal risk assessment, to analyse the effects of different combinations of engineering, social, economic and ecologically based mitigation options, across short (2020s), medium (2050s) and long-term (2080s) scenarios, taking into account physical and non-physical drivers, such as climate change, subsidence, population and economic growth.     

Adaptation to climate change in marine capture fisheries

This paper responds to the challenge of how and when to adapt marine capture fisheries to climate change by (1) providing a set of fisheries policy options to climate change; (2) developing a risk and vulnerability assessment and management decision-making framework for adaptation; and (3) describing the possible strategies and tactics for ex ante and ex post climate adaptation in the marine environment. Its contributions include (1) a discussion of how management objectives and instruments influence resilience and adaptation; (2) a decision-making process to assess vulnerabilities to climate change and to manage adaptation responses; (3) an inter-temporal framework to assist decision-makers on when to adapt; (4) a risk and simulation approach to confront the uncertainties of the possible losses due to climate change and the net benefits of adaptation; (5) an explanation of how adaptive co-management can promote flexible adaptation responses and also strengthen adaptation capacity; and (6) a selection of possible ‘win–win’ management actions.     

The international legal framework for the management of the global oceans social-ecological system

This paper evaluates the international agreements in place for the protection of the environment and the regulation of human activities taking place in world's oceans and seas. 500 multilateral agreements were reviewed against a framework of reference, grounded on the theoretical approaches of Adaptive Management and Transition Management. According to this framework, oceans complex systems management should: (1) consider the global oceans as a Social-Ecological System (SES); (2) aim to achieve or maintain their ecological resilience; and (3) implement iterative, learning-based management strategies, supported by science-based advice to policy and management. The results show that the present international legal framework for the global oceans does not require countries to adopt an adaptive, complex systems approach for global oceans ecological resilience. Instead, this study supports the perspective of a double fragmentation among international agreements. First, global agreements focus on issue-based objectives for determined human activities, ecological components or anthropogenic pressures. Second, regional agreements have a wider scope, but also a varying level of inclusion of ecological resilience considerations. There is the need to foster the inclusion of such an approach into existing and future international agreements and their implementation, including through soft-law, project-based initiatives at global and regional scales.     

海洋平台结构风险评估

作为结构系统可靠性方法与结构损伤冗余设计的一个合理延伸与综合，结构风险评估与决策技术是近年来得到迅速发展的新方法。本文讨论了海洋平台结构风险评估的理论框架，涉及了结构风险评估的几个基本方面，为进一步进行详细研究确立了一条主线。本文还对导管架式平台的结构风险评估进行了简要讨论。     

Are all patterns created equal? Cooperation is more likely in spatially simple habitats

Cooperative behaviours, such as aggregation with neighbouring conspecifics, can enhance resilience in habitats where risks (i.e. predation, physical disturbances) are high, exerting positive feedback loops to maintain a healthy population. At the same time, cooperation behaviours can involve some extra energy expenditures and increasing resource competition. For sessile reefs, like mussels, simulation models predict increased cooperation under increasing levels of environmental stress. Predation risk is viewed as a behaviour‐modifying stressor, but its role on cooperation mechanisms, such as likelihood of reciprocity, has not yet been empirically tested. This study harnesses this framework to understand how cooperation changes under different perceived levels of predation risk, using mussel beds as model of a complex “self‐organised” system. Hence, we assessed the context dependency of cooperation response in different “landscapes of fear,” created by changes in predator cues, substratum availability and body size. Our experiments demonstrated that i) cooperation in a mussel bed system increases when predator cues are present, but that this relationship was found to be both, ii) strongly context‐dependent, particularly upon substratum availability and iii) size‐dependent. That is, while cooperation is in general greater for larger individuals, the response to risk results in greater cooperation when alternative attachment substratum is absent, meaning that simpler landscapes may be perceived as riskier. The context dependency of structural complexity is also an essential finding to consider in a changing world where habitats are losing complexity and cooperative strategies should be maximised.     

Coping with disaster: Rehabilitating coastal livelihoods and communities

This paper examines lessons from past approaches to natural disasters, as well as early lessons from the post-2004 Asian tsunami rehabilitation, to draw out general principles for rehabilitating livelihoods in poor coastal communities. We contend that avoiding the mistakes of the past requires: (1) a framework for understanding the diversity of coastal people's livelihood strategies and the sources of their vulnerability, (2) a process for designing interventions that build on this understanding in order to strengthen and revitalize coastal communities, including a means of assessing and selecting the most promising livelihood options, and (3) a focus on the longer-term challenge of building future resilience and sustainability in the communities by addressing the root causes of vulnerability.     

Assessing socio-economic impacts of wave overtopping: An institutional perspective

One way to address the assessment of strategies to control wave overtopping at seawalls and related coastal defence structures is to make use of Cost-Benefit Analysis. The institutional context in which Cost-Benefit Analysis takes place influences decisions on the types of values that are taken into consideration and the subsequent selection of valuation methods. We suggest to consider Cost-Benefit Analysis in a broad institutional framework when decisions are to be made on coastal defence strategies. It is argued that the institutional context provides the rules of the game on how a balance can be found between social, economic and ecologic functions of projects that protect societies against overtopping.     

A brief catalogue of failures: Framing evaluation and learning in fisheries resource management

We propose a framework for enabling a systematic evaluation of a fisheries resource management system, which we define as a feed-back mechanism coupled to a fishery. The resource management system includes four basic functions: diagnostics, intervention, goal setting, and decision making. This model allows for the development of an evaluation framework for fisheries resource management by facilitating a typology of failures. We suggest that the potential for systemic and interdisciplinary learning will be significantly enhanced through the process of developing such a framework.     

Managing coastal evolution in a more sustainable manner. The Conscience approach

This paper summarises the main findings of the Conscience research project, whose primary objective was to define and validate, through pilot applications, a methodology to support the implementation, for European coasts, of concepts such as coastal resilience, favorable sediment status, strategic sediment reservoirs and coastal sediment cells. The Conscience conceptual framework to managing coastal erosion has proved to be an efficient tool, because it provides a consistent approach where objective (data) and subjective (desired status) information are analyzed and compared from the standpoint of a consensus target (objective). Moreover, this is done using the best available knowledge and observations, considering always their level of uncertainty, to conduct a sustainable management policy for coastal erosion. The methodology has been tested in field cases from The Netherlands, Poland, Romania, Spain, United Kingdom and Ireland, to cover different time and space scales, together with a wide range of processes and different management objectives.     

Understanding influences in policy landscapes for sustainable coastal livelihoods

Ensuring sustainability of livelihoods for communities residing in coastal environments of the Global South has gained considerable attention across policy making, practice and research fields. Livelihood enhancement programs commonly strategize around developing people's resilience by diversification of income and subsistence activities, but are criticised for inadequate appreciation of local contexts. This in part results from the application of theoretical approaches in practice which are informed disproportionately by dominant science-based narratives and utilised by actors in higher level political arenas. This leads to the prioritization of objectives that do not necessarily reflect local livelihood conditions. There is an urgent need to address the multiple challenges that limit the possibility for sustainable livelihoods in spatially and temporally dynamic environments. This paper presents an analysis of the policy landscape in which intervention strategies for sustainable coastal livelihoods emerge. It examines how livelihood improvement approaches take shape in the context of conservation, rural development, and regional resource governance. Drawing from analyses of broader regional policies and an extensive literature review, a conceptual framework is presented. It details various influences that can flow up or down multi-scaled governance structures to affect policy and management - from agenda-setting narratives of policy makers to the dynamic and changeable nature of livelihoods. Case studies from the Arafura and Timor Seas region are introduced to illustrate some of these trends. The discussion highlights challenges encountered in the pursuit of sustainability for coastal and marine-based livelihoods, and suggests directions for more effective long term policy, management and strategic interventions.     

Communicating risk through a DSS: A coastal risk centred empirical analysis

Risk communication has recently evolved from the design of unidirectional (from scientists to the public) information flow toward a more integrative deliberative procedures (involving scientists, policymakers, stakeholders and the general public) aimed at reconciling diverging social constructs of risk. Furthermore, risk communication is seen now as an activity that is transverse to the risk governance process as a whole. Risk communication is therefore part of the preassessment, appraisal, characterization/evaluation and management phases of risk governance. At the same time the development of risk management Decision Support Systems are increasingly geared at facilitating decision making while taking into account and streamlining all the phases of the risk governance process. These recent trends lead to a redefinition of the role of risk communication in the context of the development of DSS.This paper explores these issues by analysing how risk communication can be integrated into THESEUS's DSS. A first step of this analysis consists of applying grounded theory to analyse stakeholders' perception in three of THESEUS's application settings. We then compare this theorization to the grounded theorization of the foundational model of THESEUS's DSS. The result of this comparison points to diverging, yet not incompatible, paradigmatic views on the nature of coastal risks. These divergences are further analysed through semi-structured interviews with key informants involved in the development of the DSS.Building on these results we develop a communication scheme that should allow a progressive convergence of paradigmatic views occurring through the use of the DSS; we are thus proposing that the DSS in itself be a locus where risk communication as a deliberative practice occurs. In order to achieve this we propose that the cognitive pathways followed by DSS users be proactively designed and involves integrative exchanges between designers, users and policy makers.     

The concept of diverse developments in port cities

This paper extends Alvin Toffler’s “three waves” concept into a classification framework that describes three stages and six types of port-city developments. These waterfront developments inject huge capital, but require a longer period for return on investment, and public-private partnership is commonly adopted as necessary for enhanced efficiency and risk sharing in many of the development projects. The concept of diverse developments is discussed, in which the content of development is first analyzed and then subdivided into development units grouped as having similar attributes. A corresponding leading organization for the given development unit is then chosen based upon the analyzed attributes. Using the series of steps in constructing the framework, the purpose of obtaining maximum social benefits and appropriate risk management is thus achieved. Waterfront development case studies are also included to explain advantages of adopting the concept of diverse developments. Finally, examples will be included to illustrate how this diverse development analysis can be applied in a flexible way so that competitive and high quality waterfronts can be created.     

Vulnerability and adaptation of coastal communities to climate variability and sea-level rise: Their implications for integrated coastal management in Cavite City,Philippines

Coastal areas are vulnerable to the impacts of climate change and sea-level rise. These impacts will exacerbate the risks posed by the continuing environmental degradation confronting the coastal communities.Adopting a participatory research approach, the study examines the vulnerability of socioeconomic groups among the coastal population in Cavite City, Philippines, their current adaptation strategies and their adaptive capacity to cope with the impacts of climate variability and extremes and sea-level rise. Under a future scenario of a 1-m accelerated sea-level rise (ASLR), the study also looks into its potential effects on these urban coastal communities and ecosystems.In the context of poverty reduction and sustainable development, this study suggests a local framework for integrating adaptation strategies and actions into integrated coastal management (ICM) planning. It also recommends appropriate policy and institutional reform, capacity building and improved knowledge management towards increasing the resilience and adaptive capacity of these coastal communities to current and future climate risks.     

Managing for a resilient ocean

Ocean policies around the world increasingly emphasize the importance of maintaining resilient ocean ecosystems, communities, and economies. To maintain and restore the resilience of healthy marine ecosystems in practice, specific management objectives with metrics and a policy framework for how to apply them will be needed. Here we present a concept for doing this, based on evidence that marine ecosystems transition from desirable to less desirable states in response to a number of physical, chemical, and biological drivers. More empirical and synthesis research will be necessary to develop quantitative metrics of resilience and thresholds between ecosystem states for specific ecosystems; however, suggestions are provided here for how to manage for resilience when insufficient data and knowledge are available for quantification. A summary of thresholds for biotic and abiotic drivers of ecosystem state drawn from the literature is also provided as a guide to management.     

Implementation of coastal erosion management in the Netherlands

The Netherlands is a low-lying country, in which 9 million people are living below sea level and 70% of the gross domestic product is being earned in areas below sea level. Therefore, protection against flooding is traditionally the primary focus of coastal policy in the Netherlands. Analysis shows that characteristics of Dutch coastal management very well comply with the recommendations and key concepts to support sustainable coastal management as issued by the EU in 2004 (EUROSION). Sediment management represents the core of erosion management in the Netherlands; key concepts like resilience, coastal sediment cells, favorable sediment status and strategic sediment reservoirs, are important building stones. Development and implementation of coastal erosion management in the Netherlands, has implicitly been guided by a systematic Frame-of-Reference. Characteristics of this approach are the definition of clear objectives at different levels (i.e. strategic, tactical and operational) and an operational decision recipe related to policy development and implementation. Application of the Frame-of-Reference to current problems and challenges in Dutch coastal management indicates its ability to reveal shortcomings of the existing approach, and to explore potential solutions. Where EUROSION offers important concepts to define coastal erosion management, the Frame-of-Reference offers a tool to discern different objectives and responsibilities. The combination of both strongly supports implementation of coastal erosion management.     

An information system for monitoring the Chilean salmon industry sustainability

Today and years to come, one of the most challenging problems of the global economy is to keep maintaining and developing the correct balance of the environment from which resources are extracted. For this, we believe that Information Systems and formal methodologies for sustainability measures definition are related to decision making and management control. In this work, a methodology as a means to determining and implementing reliable, understandable, relevant and accessible sustainability indicators for the interaction between the environment, the economy and the society will be examined. Sustainability measures were implemented in a Decision Support System using a multidimensional modeling based architecture. The proposed methodology for indicators definition and the Information System were successfully applied to the Chilean salmon industry. The usage of the indicators and the stakeholders’ opinions over the resulting Information System, proved that the proposed Decision Support System is of great importance to the sustainable development of the Chilean salmon industry.     

MAritime RISk Assessment (MARISA), a fuzzy approach to define an individual ship risk factor

This paper presents a fuzzy approach for the MAritime RISk Assessment (MARISA) applied to safety at sea. The aim of this work is to define automatically an individual ship risk factor which could be used in a decision making system. To achieve this purpose, a modular and hierarchical structure using fuzzy logic has been developed. It allows us to obtain a fuzzy risk factor (FRF) composed of a static risk factor (SRF) and a dynamic risk factor (DRF). The static risk factor assessment takes into account several static data relative to the ship (age, flag, gross tonnage, number of companies, duration of detention and type). The dynamic risk factor is evaluated by considering the meteorological conditions (sea state, wind speed and visibility) and the moment of the day. Moreover, the MARISA graphic interface developed with the Labview software is presented. This interface allows several simulations to be carried out to validate the fuzzy method proposed. Simulation results are presented.     

Natura 2000 and the European Common Fisheries Policy

The implementation of the Natura 2000 network of marine protected areas under the European Habitats Directive (92/43/EEC) has far-reaching implications for fisheries. To date, no consistent approaches have been established to develop fisheries management measures in Natura 2000 areas, and no European member state has proposed any fisheries measures to the European Commission for consideration under the Common Fisheries Policy. Four key issues are identified in the relationship between fisheries and Natura 2000, and the possible role that the future Common Fisheries Policy could have in this context is discussed. There is a need (1) for a consistent framework to integrate scientific advice, stakeholder participation and management in the management process; (2) for a common methodology to prioritize conservation objectives, in particular for transboundary protected areas; (3) for a consistent framework to assess and evaluate fisheries impacts to define management measures; and (4) to define spatial properties for fisheries. The results from the projects EMPAS (Germany), FIMPAS (the Netherlands), and INDEMARES (Spain) and the Dogger Bank case are discussed.     

Making the ecosystem approach operational—Can regime shifts in ecological- and governance systems facilitate the transition?

Effectively reducing cumulative impacts on marine ecosystems requires co-evolution between science, policy and practice. Here, long-term social–ecological changes in the Baltic Sea are described, illustrating how the process of making the ecosystem approach operational in a large marine ecosystem can be stimulated. The existing multi-level governance institutions are specifically set up for dealing with individual sectors, but do not adequately support an operational application of the ecosystem approach. The review of ecosystem services in relation to regime shifts and resilience of the Baltic Sea sub-basins, and their driving forces, points to a number of challenges. There is however a movement towards a new governance regime. Bottom-up pilot initiatives can lead to a diffusion of innovation within the existing governance framework. Top-down, enabling EU legislation, can help stimulating innovations and re-organizing governance structures at drainage basin level to the Baltic Sea catchment as a whole. Experimentation and innovation at local to the regional levels is critical for a transition to ecosystem-based management. Establishing science-based learning platforms at sub-basin scales could facilitate this process.     

Implementing urban waterfront redevelopment in an historic context: a case study of the The Boston Naval Shipyard

The paper provides a critical analysis of revitalisation strategies for the Yard, including the integration of naval heritage in regeneration. The Yard's working history, which led to inclusion on the National Register of Historic Places, is briefly reviewed. The planning role of the Boston Redevelopment Authority (BRA) is established, and this agency's strategic division of the site into heritage-dominated and other zones is discussed. The BRA's focus on public investment to initiate clearance and revitalisation based on public spaces and heritage exploitation is demonstrated. Particular attention is also given to the BRA's political, financial and design strategies. Despite the Yard's reputation for successful revitalisation, it is shown that these strategies encountered major difficulties which severely delayed and heavily modified the eventual outcomes. It is concluded that heritage-based and mixed-use revitalisation developed a symbiosis contributing to the successes achieved, but that the difficulties identified highlight major lessons. These relate chiefly to public and private sector investment, timely public sector decision-making, the pitfalls of over-regulated conservation policy and the importance of local community relationships.