Preparedness of key coastal and marine sectors in Ireland to adapt to climate change

Preparedness to adapt to the impacts of climate change was assessed for three important sectors of activity within the Irish coastal and marine environment, namely tourism, fisheries, and conservation of biodiversity. Information on the current status of each sector is a valuable point of reference in terms of accessing contribution to the implementation of future national adaptation efforts. A modified version of the National Adaptive Capacity (NAC) framework developed by the World Resources Institute was used to assess the three sectors of activity. This framework is structured around five functions: assessment, prioritisation, coordination, information management, and climate risk reduction; results of the assessment suggest that all three sectors are at the nascent stages of the climate change adaptation process. Currently there is no dedicated national policy guidance or legal support mechanism on adaptation in Ireland; hence there is no national financial commitment to support implementation of adaptation actions for any of the sectors assessed. Subjecting these three selected sectors of activity to such an assessment enables identification of existing actions that can potentially support current adaptation, as well as where issues such as knowledge gaps and lack of policy support hinder progress.     

Communicating climate change: Climate change risk perceptions and rock lobster fishers, Tasmania

World fisheries, already vulnerable, are under increasing pressure from the impacts of climate change. Using the Tasmanian rock lobster industry as a case study, we considered the efficacy of risk perception as a tool to inform how to communicate the science of climate change and suggestions for management in relation to development of adaptation strategies for fisheries. Fishers surveyed in this study operate in a fishery that is expected to undergo large changes as a consequence of climate change. Fishers also reported observations of similar large changes in the marine environment and lobster fishery consistent with climate change; yet most fishers surveyed expressed doubts about whether climate change was a real process. The important point for adaption of the industry to climate change is that fisher perceptions of risk tended to create barriers to acceptance of climate change as an issue. This means that there is a barrier to communication and awareness about climate change and thus a barrier to future action on the issue. Improving acceptance of climate change and thus ability to adapt will require the development of communications that are culturally appropriate and palatable to fishers. We argue that the application of social learning principles in communications about climate change may be one constructive way forward.     

A climate-informed,ecosystem approach to fisheries management

This paper outlines the benefits of using the framework for an ecosystem approach to fisheries management (EAFM) for dealing with the inevitable yet unclear impacts of climate change and ocean acidification on coastal fisheries. With a focus on the Asia-Pacific region, it summarizes the projected biological and socio-economic effects of increased emissions of carbon dioxide (CO₂) for coastal fisheries and illustrates how all the important dimensions of climate change and ocean acidification can be integrated into the steps involved in the EAFM planning process. The activities required to harness the full potential of an EAFM as an adaptation to climate change and ocean acidification are also described, including: provision of the necessary expertise to inform all stakeholders about the risks to fish habitats, fish stocks and catches due to climate change; promotion of trans-disciplinary collaboration; facilitating the participation of all key stakeholders; monitoring the wider fisheries system for climate impacts; and enhancing resources and capacity to implement an EAFM. By channeling some of the resources available to the Asia-Pacific region to adapt to climate change into an EAFM, developing countries will not only build resilience to the ecological and fisheries effects of climate change, they will also help address the habitat degradation and overfishing presently reducing the productivity of coastal fisheries.     

Impacts of climate variability and change on fishery-based livelihoods

There is increasing concern over the consequences of global warming for the food security and livelihoods of the world's 36 million fisherfolk and the nearly 1.5 billion consumers who rely on fish for more than 20% of their dietary animal protein. With mounting evidence of the impacts of climate variability and change on aquatic ecosystems, the resulting impacts on fisheries livelihoods are likely to be significant, but remain a neglected area in climate adaptation policy. Drawing upon our research and the available literature, and using a livelihoods framework, this paper synthesizes the pathways through which climate variability and change impact fisherfolk livelihoods at the household and community level. We identify current and potential adaptation strategies and explore the wider implications for local livelihoods, fisheries management and climate policies. Responses to climate change can be anticipatory or reactive and should include: (1) management approaches and policies that build the livelihood asset base, reducing vulnerability to multiple stressors, including climate change; (2) an understanding of current response mechanisms to climate variability and other shocks in order to inform planned adaptation; (3) a recognition of the opportunities that climate change could bring to the sector; (4) adaptive strategies designed with a multi-sector perspective; and (5) a recognition of fisheries potential contribution to mitigation efforts.     

Vulnerability to impacts of climate change on marine fisheries and food security

Assessment of fisheries vulnerability to climate change is an important step for enhancing the understanding and decision-making to reduce such vulnerability. This study aimed to provide an analysis of country level vulnerability focusing on food security implications of climatic disturbances on marine fisheries. The comparative magnitude and distribution of potential food security impacts of climatic disturbances on marine fisheries were assessed for 109 countries by scoring and ranking countries against a set of vulnerability criteria including metrics of national exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity, highlighting the contribution of marine fisheries to national food and nutrition security. Results showed that developing countries in Africa, Asia, Oceania, and Latin America appeared to be most vulnerable, and the key sources of vulnerability differed considerably among the countries. For countries most vulnerable to climate-induced effects on marine fisheries, more than two-thirds of them depended on domestic marine fisheries as a main source of fish supply. Developing appropriate adaptation policies and management plans to reduce the impacts of changing climate is of great importance to sustain food security in these highly vulnerable and heavy marine fisheries-dependent countries.     

Assessing and reducing vulnerability to climate change: Moving from theory to practical decision-support

As climate change continues to impact socio-ecological systems, tools that assist conservation managers to understand vulnerability and target adaptations are essential. Quantitative assessments of vulnerability are rare because available frameworks are complex and lack guidance for dealing with data limitations and integrating across scales and disciplines. This paper describes a semi-quantitative method for assessing vulnerability to climate change that integrates socio-ecological factors to address management objectives and support decision-making. The method applies a framework first adopted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and uses a structured 10-step process. The scores for each framework element are normalized and multiplied to produce a vulnerability score and then the assessed components are ranked from high to low vulnerability. Sensitivity analyses determine which indicators most influence the analysis and the resultant decision-making process so data quality for these indicators can be reviewed to increase robustness. Prioritisation of components for conservation considers other economic, social and cultural values with vulnerability rankings to target actions that reduce vulnerability to climate change by decreasing exposure or sensitivity and/or increasing adaptive capacity. This framework provides practical decision-support and has been applied to marine ecosystems and fisheries, with two case applications provided as examples: (1) food security in Pacific Island nations under climate-driven fish declines, and (2) fisheries in the Gulf of Carpentaria, northern Australia. The step-wise process outlined here is broadly applicable and can be undertaken with minimal resources using existing data, thereby having great potential to inform adaptive natural resource management in diverse locations.     

Overview of West African fisheries under climate change: Impacts,vulnerabilities and adaptive responses of the artisanal and industrial sectors

Climate change affects ocean conditions, fish stocks and hence fisheries. In West Africa, climate change impacts on fisheries were projected to be mainly negative through multi-facet ways. However, analysis of adaptation responses of fishers to climate change impacts is scarce. This paper reviews the impacts on climate change on fisheries in West Africa and discusses the potential adaptation strategies adopted by both the artisanal and industrial fishing sectors. Overall, climate change and over-exploitation have altered species composition of fisheries catches in West Africa. The effect of ocean warming on fisheries is indicated by the increase in dominance of warmer water species in the landings, shown from an increase in Mean Temperature of Catch, in the region. Climate change induced changes in potential catch and species composition, which inherently have similar symptoms as over-exploitation, are expected to have repercussions on the economic and social performance of fisheries. Both artisanal and industrial sectors may adapt to these changes mainly through expansion of fishing ground that increases operation costs. Our results highlight that historical changes in target species are more common in industrial than artisanal fisheries. This result challenges the prevailing assumption that artisanal fisheries, given their limited movement capacity, would adapt to climate change by shifting target species and/or gear type.     

Securing ocean benefits for society in the face of climate change

Benefits humans rely on from the ocean – marine ecosystem services – are increasingly vulnerable under future climate. This paper reviews how three valued services have, and will continue to, shift under climate change: (1) capture fisheries, (2) food from aquaculture, and (3) protection from coastal hazards such as storms and sea-level rise. Climate adaptation planning is just beginning for fisheries, aquaculture production, and risk mitigation for coastal erosion and inundation. A few examples are highlighted, showing the promise of considering multiple ecosystem services in developing approaches to adapt to sea-level rise, ocean acidification, and rising sea temperatures.Ecosystem-based adaptation in fisheries and along coastlines and changes in aquaculture practices can improve resilience of species and habitats to future environmental challenges. Opportunities to use market incentives – such as compensation for services or nutrient trading schemes – are relatively untested in marine systems. Relocation of communities in response to rising sea levels illustrates the urgent need to manage human activities and investments in ecosystems to provide a sustainable flow of benefits in the face of future climate change.     

Optimising fisheries management in relation to tuna catches in the western central Pacific Ocean: A review of research priorities and opportunities

Some of the most important development goals for the countries and territories of the Western and Central Pacific Ocean (WCPO) involve the sustainable management of their fisheries in light of environmental, economic and social uncertainties. The responses of fish populations to variability in the marine environment have implications for decision making processes associated with resource management. There is still considerable uncertainty in estimating the responses of tuna populations to short-to-medium-term variability and longer-term change in the oceanic environment. A workshop was organised to examine how advances in oceanography, fisheries science and fisheries economics could be applied to the tuna fisheries of the WCPO and in doing so identify research priorities to improve understanding relevant to progressing management. Research priorities identified included: (i) improved parameterisation of end to end ecosystem model components, processes and feedbacks through expanded biological observations and incorporation of higher resolution climate models; (ii) development of seasonal and inter-annual forecasting tools enabling management responses to short-term variability in tuna distributions and abundances; (iii) improved understanding of the population dynamics of and the energy transfer efficiencies between food web components; (iv) assessment of the optimal value of access rights and overall fishery value under multiple scenarios of tuna distribution and abundance and influences on decision making by fisheries managers and fleets and (v) development of management strategy evaluation frameworks for utilisation in the implementing and testing of fishery management procedures and to help prioritise research directions and investment. Issues discussed and research priorities identified during the workshop have synergies with other internationally managed fisheries and therefore are applicable to many other fisheries.     

Forecasting the consequences of climate-driven shifts in human behavior on cetaceans

While climate change is expected to affect cetaceans primarily via loss of habitat and changes in prey availability, additional consequences may result from climate-driven shifts in human behaviors and economic activities. For example, increases in shipping, oil and gas exploration and fishing due to the loss of Arctic sea ice are highly likely to exacerbate acoustic disturbance, ship strikes, bycatch and prey depletion for Arctic cetaceans. In the tropics, climate change may result in increased hunting pressure on near-shore dolphins and whales off Asia, Latin America, Africa, and elsewhere as the availability of other marine resources diminishes. This study explores the range of potential consequences to cetaceans worldwide from predicted climate-driven shifts in human behavior, and evaluates the risks to particular species given their geographic ranges and habitat preferences. While concern about impacts of climate change on cetaceans has largely focused on polar species, the analysis presented here suggests tropical coastal and riverine cetaceans such as the Irawaddy dolphin, Indo-Pacific humpback dolphin, and finless porpoise are particularly vulnerable to those aspects of climate change that are mediated by changes in human behavior. Policy recommendations include the following: (1) information about cetacean populations should be incorporated into national, regional and international climate adaptation decisions wherever possible (for example, via GEF-sponsored adaptation initiatives); and (2) human-mediated impacts of climate change should be included in cetacean conservation and management plans, such as the management procedures of the International Whaling Commission (IWC), where possible. Because human responses to climate change are likely to evolve rapidly over the coming years and decades, it is important that local, regional and international cetacean conservation and management plans include regular reviews to allow them to adapt to new information.     

The ACIA,climate change and fisheries

The Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA) is a project of the intergovernmental Arctic Council, intended to synthesize knowledge of the effects of climate change on the Arctic. This paper is based on the primary output of the ACIA project, a 1042 page book entitled Arctic Climate Impact Assessment. Our concern is with the effects of Arctic climate change on fisheries. To set the stage, however, we first discuss those chapters that logically precede the fisheries discussion, the chapters concerned with past and present climate change, climate modeling and marine systems. The conclusion notes that moderate climate warming will probably benefit most Arctic fisheries. The conclusion also considers the role of anthropogenic causation in climate change and its policy implications.     

New implementing agreement under UNCLOS: A threat or an opportunity for fisheries governance?

The purpose of this paper is to analyse the relationship of the proposed new UNCLOS Implementing Agreement concerning the conservation and sustainable use of marine biological diversity of areas beyond national jurisdiction with the current legal framework concerning fisheries. It elaborates on selected elements that are under negotiations, namely: marine genetic resources, area-based management tools, including marine protected areas, as well as environmental impact assessments. Each of those elements is analyzed with particular emphasis being laid on the following issues. Firstly, how the current legal status quo in the relevant area looks like. Secondly, how the question of fisheries could be included in a future treaty and, thirdly, what bearing it could have on the current framework of the management of fisheries.The article concludes with the identification of possible fields where the new treaty could bring added value. However, some possible challenges are mentioned as well. They relate in particular to the fact that the mandate of negotiations underscores that they shall not ‘undermine existing legal instruments and frameworks and relevant global, regional and sectoral bodies’.     

Gauging perceptions of ocean acidification in Alaska

While ocean acidification (OA) poses a significant threat to ocean-related ecosystems and communities reliant on marine fisheries, aquaculture, and coral reef systems, limited public understanding and awareness can prevent coastal regions from being able to adequately assess the need for OA adaptation or mitigation. This study assessed public understanding of OA and how social and demographic factors influence the public’s concern for OA. The analysis was based on 311 questionnaires from full-time Alaska residents. The results showed that most Alaskans self-reported to have a basic awareness of OA, and subsequently were able to recognize that CO₂ emissions related to human activity are the dominant driver of changing ocean conditions. However, there was a low recognition of how natural variability in the marine environment affects OA, and most respondents were not very confident in their understanding of OA-related science. Moreover, even though many communities in Alaska are reliant on commercial and subsistence fishing activities, the respondents had a low awareness of fisheries-related OA risk. Given the ongoing debate associated with climate change research, evaluating CO₂ mitigation efforts through the perspective of OA could give individuals an unbiased way to assess the pros and cons of more intensive efforts to curb CO₂ emissions. Furthermore, using OA communication to enhance the understanding of how natural variability influences OA around the state and the potential economic implications for Alaska fisheries would help residents and stakeholders make informed decisions when considering fisheries management plans, food security, and job diversity as OA intensifies. Solidifying the understanding that any reduction in pH and intensification of OA can have implications for marine species that are irreversible on human timescales will reinforce not only that OA is an immediate concern, but also the importance of taking action now.     

Adaptive governance and the human dimensions of marine mammal management: Implications for policy in a changing North

As climate change has driven dramatic changes in Northern sea ice regimes, marine mammals have gained iconic status around the world reflecting the perils of global warming. There is a tension between policies that have international support like a ban on seal hunting or whaling, and the adoption of adaptive, flexible rules that are likely to work in Northern places. Whereas most wildlife policy focuses on biological information to inform policy strategy, this analysis focuses on the “human dimensions” of Northern marine mammal management. This research examines ways in which human relationships and modes of governance affect conservation success. Standard analyses of risk to animal populations focused on direct sources of take are inadequate to address multi-causal, complex problems such as climate-induced habitat loss or increased industrialization of the Arctic Ocean. Early conservation policy strategies focusing on the moratorium of take have eliminated or reduced such practices as commercialized hunting and high levels of fisheries bycatch, but may be less relevant in an era in which habitats and climate changes are key drivers of population dynamics. This paper argues that effective adaptive policy requires new ways of learning about and governing human interactions with marine mammals. Through an exploration of marine mammal management in three Northern regions (Alaska, Nunavut, and the Finnish Baltic Sea coast), the paper analyzes the extent to which these marine mammal management regimes are practicing adaptive governance, that is, building cross-scale (local to international) understanding while allowing actors at the local scale the flexibility to direct the creation of rules that are ecologically robust and likely to succeed. Lessons are taken from these examples and used to propose selected policy and research recommendations for the marine mammal policy community.     

Fishermen's perspectives on climate variability

Understanding fishermen's perspectives and responses relating to climate variability is important for sustainable fisheries management. To this end, a survey of captains of commercial passenger fishing vessels (CPFVs) was conducted in San Diego. The survey demonstrates that fishermen have observed and adapted to changes in the environment and fish populations associated with climate variability. However, only 12.9% of respondents agreed that global climate change is a possibility. In order to explain fishermen's divergent beliefs on climate change, a semiparametric discrete choice model is used to identify the potential determinants. The empirical results highlight the importance of the following factors: fishermen's experience, observations of the phenomena that are associated with climate variability, and an interaction of fishermen's experience and their observations.     

Climate, fishery and society interactions: Observations from the North Atlantic

Interdisciplinary studies comparing fisheries-dependent regions across the North Atlantic find a number of broad patterns. Large ecological shifts, disastrous to historical fisheries, have resulted when unfavorable climatic events occur atop overfishing. The “teleconnections” linking fisheries crises across long distances include human technology and markets, as well as climate or migratory fish species. Overfishing and climate-driven changes have led to a shift downwards in trophic levels of fisheries takes in some ecosystems, from dominance by bony fish to crustaceans. Fishing societies adapt to new ecological conditions through social reorganization that have benefited some people and places, while leaving others behind. Characteristic patterns of demographic change are among the symptoms of such reorganization. These general observations emerge from a review of recent case studies of individual fishing communities, such as those conducted for the North Atlantic Arc research project.     

Recreational fishing in a time of rapid ocean change

Fishing is an important recreational activity for many Australians, with one in every four people participating every year. There are however many different pressures exerted on Australian fish stocks, including climate-related changes that drive changes in local fish abundances. It is inevitable that recreational fishers will need to adapt to these changes. When resource abundance alters substantially, user adaptation to the new situation is required and policies and incentives may need to be developed to encourage behaviour change. It is important to correctly anticipate fisher's response to these policies and incentives as much as possible. Improved understanding of recreational fisher's likely adaptation decisions and the nature and timing of these decisions can help avoid unintended consequences of management decisions. Based on a survey of recreational fishers in the south-east Australian climate hotspot, we identify 4 relevant dimensions to recreational fisher's behavioural adaptation. There are differences in adaptation timing (early, late, and non-adaptors). Non-adaptors are characterised by greater cultural attachment to fishing and stronger perceptions of the factors that influence abundance change. The fisher's preferred adaptation responses and the timing of the behavioural response differs between decreasing versus increasing fish abundance. Insight into perspectives and expectations on how recreational fishers might adapt to changes is useful to develop a set of behavioural incentives that appeal to different groups but remain efficient and effective in their implementation. Such knowledge can create new pathways to achieve meaningful and targeted adaptation responses for different types of recreational fishers.     

The science-policy interface in fisheries management: Insights about the influence of organizational structure and culture on information pathways

Understanding how information flows between scientific and decision-making communities is essential for the creation of effective strategies to link scientific advice to management decisions. Interviews of scientists and managers in two inter-related fisheries management organizations – the Department of Fisheries and Oceans (DFO) and the Northwest Atlantic Fisheries Organization (NAFO) – and direct observations at science and management meetings revealed important organizational characteristics that influence the production, communication, and use of scientific information in decision-making. Formal processes for communicating scientific advice to managers – DFO's Canadian Scientific Advisory Secretariat (CSAS) and NAFO's Fisheries Commission's Request for Advice – demonstrate the use of credible, relevant, and legitimate advice for operational decision-making for fisheries management. Such defined processes, in addition to governmental bureaucracy, departmentalization, and de-centralization, can limit communication as highlighted for Canada as a Contracting Party to NAFO. Administrative mechanisms can pose challenges to implementing ecosystem approaches to fisheries management (EAF) and to addressing the impacts of climate change. Emerging organizational structures and behaviours facilitate communication at the science-policy interface, within and between the organizations, thereby improving understanding of science and management needs and promoting trust relationships between scientists and managers. The involvement of multiple stakeholders in the information pathways addresses concerns about scientific uncertainty in assessment advice. A linear model of information flow typifies operational decision-making; however, collaborative models that incorporate different types of information, apart from fisheries science, are required to enable ecosystem-based management. The characteristics of the information pathways are particularly relevant as the organizations address their EAF mandates.     

A preliminary assessment of threats to arctic marine mammals and their conservation in the coming decades

Over the next several decades, arctic marine mammals will face threats from six areas of human influence: climate change, environmental contaminants, offshore oil and gas activities, shipping, hunting, and commercial fisheries. This paper reviews these factors, the nature and magnitude of the threats they pose, current scientific understanding and management of those threats, and the potential for effective conservation action. Climate change, offshore oil and gas activities, and commercial fisheries likely pose the greatest threats. Addressing the combined effects of all six factors, however, will be particularly difficult but essential to prevent declines beyond those that have already occurred.     

Fisheries development in northeastern Asia in conjunction with changes in climate and social systems

The status and prospects of fisheries in northeastern Asia are reviewed in conjunction with climate change and social issues. This region has the biggest yield, consumption, and international trade of fisheries products in the world. Due to increasing industrialization and greenhouse gas emissions, higher rates of warming have occurred. The impacts of climate change on fisheries could be detrimental because the main fishery products are small pelagic fish whose biomass fluctuations are sensitive to climate changes. Improvements in the economies of the nations in this region offset the demand for fish products in human diets, and employment in fisheries. It is recommended that fisheries management plans consider both changes in climate and in social systems. Stocks which migrate between national jurisdictions are in need of particular attention.