中全新世甘青地区古文化变迁的环境驱动

根据孢粉、古土壤和考古资料,结合甘肃、青海地区的地形特征,发现4 ka BP前气候温暖湿润,马家窑文化分布在黄河及其支流的森林草原河谷地区,东界在六盘山,向北则向河西走廊延伸,且主要从事种植业.4 ka BP后,由于气候环境的恶化,自然带向东迁移,生存环境演替为温带草原,齐家文化替代了马家窑文化.为适应自然环境的变化,甘肃、青海地区人类文化遗址也向东南低海拔地区转移,且产业结构中畜牧业比重显著增加.     

贡嘎山地区全新世的冰川变化、气候变化与河谷阶地发育

本区冰川变化与河谷阶地发育关系密切，全新世初气候转暖，冰川逐步后退，形成第四级河流阶地（Ｔ４下部），全新世中期的高温期（７５００－４０００ａＢＰ）冰川强烈消融，形成第四级阶地（Ｔ４中上部）＜７４２０±９０ａＢＰ；全新世晚期气候转冷，新冰期可分出三次冰进：前观景台冰进＞３０８０±８０ａＢＰ，观景台冰进１５５０±８０－２３５０±６５ａＢＰ，海螺沟冰进９４０±８５－７８０±９０ａＢＰ，相应出现Ｔ３＞３０００ａＢＰ，Ｔ２１２００±７０－２１７０±６０ａＢＰ，Ｔ１９３０±７０ａＢＰ，现在小冰期最早出现在４００年前，有３次波动，相当于公元１６０３－１６５０；１７５１－１８００；１８５１－１９００；三次气候寒冷期。     

河北坝上地区湖泊沉积物记录的中全新世干旱气候

根据位于典型草原带的河北坝上地区白诺尔及毗邻的内蒙古乌兰诺尔湖泊沉积物的K、Na、Ca、Mg等化学元素组成、总有机碳(TOC)与氧同位素(δ¹⁸O)的分析,以(K+Na+Ca+Mg)/(Fe+Mn)值指示干旱度,1δ8O值指示夏季风的强弱,TOC值指示湖区植被状况,探讨了该地区¹⁴C测年9.8~5.3 ka B.P.以来的气候变化与环境变迁。结果表明:两个剖面所记录的气候变化趋势相近,¹⁴C测年7.0~5.7 ka B.P.为偏干期。反映夏季风强弱的氧同位素指标与干旱程度的变化没有明显的对应关系,说明夏季风引起的降水量变化不是气候干湿变化的主要影响因子,温度升高导致的蒸发加强可能对气候干旱化的影响更加明显。     

中全新世以来黑龙江同江地区的孢粉组合与植被、气候演化

对黑龙江省同江县96－QP剖面从下至上划分4个孢粉组合带：1是以蒙古栎－桦属－蒿属－苔草属－木本科－水龙骨科为主组合带；2是以蒿属－莎草科－禾本科－桦属－栎属为主组合带；3是以桦属－蒙古栎松属－蒿属－莎草科－禾本科为主组合带；4是以松属－桦属－蒙古栎－蒿属－苔草属为主组合带。这4个孢粉组合带清楚地反映了古植被，古气候演替4个阶段；依次为温性落叶阔叶林－针，阔叶混交林→以落叶阔叶树稍多的针、阔叶混交林－草原→以松占优势的针、阔叶混交林。其气候变化是温暖湿润－温和略干－温和略湿－温凉湿润。     

花海古湖泊外源碎屑矿物含量揭示的河西走廊早、中全新世降水变化

花海地区位于河西走廊的西段,在全新世早期和中期亚洲季风增强时,该区域降水是否很好地响应亚洲季风的变化,以及季风的水汽输送是否会影响到该区域是仍需继续探讨的问题.本文通过对花海古湖泊沉积物样品的矿物测定,分析了花海古湖泊早、中全新世湖相沉积阶段中外源碎屑矿物含量的变化,并以此重建了该区域早全新世(10.47～8.87 cal ka BP)和中全新世(8.87～5.5 cal ka BP)的降水变化.结果显示,早全新世时期花海湖泊外源碎屑矿物含量高于中全新世时期,表明了该区域早全新世时期的降水高于中全新世时期,反映了该区域早、中全新世千年尺度的降水变化响应了印度季风的强弱变化,降水量受到了印度季风强度的影响.在全新世中期,由于西风环流的增强,花海地区水汽输送可能受到了印度季风和西风环流的双重影响.但全新世最湿润期出现在中全新世,与早全新世降水强度高于中全新世的结果并不一致.这种差异可能主要是由于中全新世时期较低的湖面蒸发所造成的.     

中全新世7～6 ka东亚季风气候的高分辨率石笋记录

基于神农架青天洞石笋两个²³⁰Th年龄、582条纹层计数和183个氧同位素数据,重建了7～6ka B.P.期间平均3年分辨率的δ¹⁸O变化序列。持续约580年振幅达1.8‰的δ¹⁸O在平均值-9.66‰上下波动,指示了东亚季风降水强度的长期演化趋势和高频振荡信息,大致划分为4个百年尺度旋回。青天洞与阿曼石笋δ¹⁸O记录的对比表明,东亚季风和印度季风在百年或更短时间尺度上同相位变化,可能反映了两地季风气候受统一的印度洋/太平洋大尺度水汽循环控制。功率谱分析揭示出163、81、16和11年的周期,大致与树轮Δ¹⁴C百年至数十年尺度太阳活动变化周期相同。     

瓦窑沟剖面记录的早中全新世毛乌素沙地东南缘气候变化

毛乌素沙地位于中国东亚季风边缘区,对气候变化响应敏感。区域内分布着大量河湖相沉积地层,忠实记录了全新世以来气候变化状况。选取毛乌素沙地东南缘河湖相沉积地层为主的瓦窑沟剖面（WYG）,在光释光（OSL）和¹⁴C（AMS ¹⁴C）测年基础上,对粒度、色度和有机质环境代用指标进行分析,反演得出毛乌素沙地早中全新世气候经历了3个阶段：约9.8 ka BP前气候干冷,广泛沉积沙层;9.8—9.6 ka BP气候逐渐回暖,为气候干冷转为暖湿的过渡期;9.6—5.2 ka BP气候相对暖湿,发育砂质泥炭层。推测计算得出,剖面地层沉积速率沙层>过渡层>砂质泥炭层,且各地层均存在次一级旋回,曲线旋回周期砂质泥炭层（480 a）>沙层（150 a）>过渡层（130 a）,指示砂质泥炭层沉积速率最慢、形成时期气候相对稳定。研究结果与东亚季风区域古气候记录具有很好的可比性,是对东亚冬夏季风强度变化的全球性响应。     

Palaeohydrological reconstructions achieved from palaeoclimatic conditions and palaeochannel morphology for southern Hebei, the North China Plain

lintroductionPalaeoh}'drolog}'dealsti'ithdieac.atersofaleeartheircompositionsdistribuhonand"lovementonancientlandscapesfrom1lieoccurrenceofthefirstrainfalltothebeginningofhistoricalllydrologicalrecordsl'].Runoffanddischargeareimportanthydrologicalpazametersdescribingquanhtyrstatusofsurfacexvater.TheirreconstrUchonsfortheQuatemmppastareillusverysigrmcantforfurtherunderstanclingtilepalaeohydrologicalcondjhonandeventhewholephysicalPalaeoenviromnentofthisgeologicalperiod.SouthernHebei(114~l17T.3…     

塔里木河干流径流量变化与太阳黑子活动的关系

本文运用Morlet 小波分析方法, 分析了1957-2011 年塔里木河干流年径流量与太阳黑子相对数的关系。结果表明, 55 年间塔里木河干流年径流量和太阳黑子相对数都呈减小的趋势。塔里木河干流年径流量变化存在4 a、8 a、18 a、21 a 左右的主周期。在8~9 a 和18~21 a 尺度上年径流量序列与太阳黑子相对数序列具有相近的主周期。年径流量变化所表现的4 年主周期与太阳黑子活动关系不大;18~21 a 主周期特征应主要受太阳黑子活动的影响;8 a 主周期也与太阳黑子活动显著相关, 但由于受到人类活动的强烈干扰, 致使在20 世纪80 年代以后两者关系被扰乱。预测2012-2020 年间塔里木河干流将处于枯水期, 年径流量的平均值约为35×10⁸~40×10⁸ m³。     

近50a来塔里木河干流年径流量变化趋势及预测

根据塔里木河干流1957-2008年的年径流量监测数据,利用Mann-Kendall非参数技术检验和R/S法,对干流年径流量时间序列变化趋势进行分析,并在此基础上采用滑动t检验法和Mann-Kendall法对其突变点进行检验,最后运用方差分析外推法和叠加趋势预测模型对干流水文周期和未来径流量变化进行分析和预测.结果显示...     

西北干旱区内陆河年径流过程的非线性特征——塔里木盆地三源河的实证分析

以塔里木盆地三源河为例,基于1957-2002年的时间序列,运用小波分析方法从不同的时间尺度上分析了年径流过程的非线性变化趋势,并运用关联维数和R/S分析方法揭示了其分形与混沌特征.主要结论如下:(1) 西北干旱区内陆河年径流过程,是复杂的非线性系统,它们具有波动性以及分形和混沌特征.(2) 从大的时间尺度,即16(24)年的时间尺度上来看,阿克苏河、叶尔羌河的年径流量,在整体上基本呈上升趋势,而和田河在整体上却基本呈轻微的下降趋势.如果把时间尺度缩小到8 (23)或4 (22)年,则各河流的年径流量就不再是上升或下降趋势,而是呈明显的波动变化,而且4(22)年尺度上的波动比8(23)年尺度上的波动更加明显.(3)和田河、叶尔羌河与阿克苏河的关联维数分别为3.222 7、3.211 8与 3.209 2,均为非整数,是分形,这说明三源河的年径流过程具有混沌特征.由于每一个关联维数都大于3,这就意味着,要从动力学角度描述三源河的径流过程,至少需要4个独立变量.(4) 从1989-2002年期间的Hurst指数可以判断,在2002年以后的14年里,阿克苏河与叶尔羌河的年径流量基本上将呈增加趋势,而和田河基本上将呈轻微的减少趋势.     

晋南全新世黄土剖面常量元素地球化学特征及其古环境意义

通过对晋南地区中梁铁厂全新世黄土剖面常量元素含量分析和粒度、磁化率及光释光年代测定,探讨全新世以来该剖面的化学风化特征及其古环境意义。剖面沉积物的Al₂O₃、TFe₂O₃、K₂O含量变化趋势基本一致,三者含量在古土壤层中较高,代表气候暖湿;剖面常量元素含量与UCC对比具有富Ca而贫Na、K的特征;剖面总体处于低等化学风化强度,介于陕西扶风和宁夏彭阳的剖面之间,其中古土壤层处于中等风化强度,Ca、Na大量淋失。常量元素地球化学特征指示该区全新世以来气候经历了"气候回暖→温暖湿润→气候转凉→持续干凉"的转化过程。1.2-2.5 ka BP期间区域地表流水作用较强,导致了Ca的相对淋失。     

The grading of agroclimatic calamities for assessing mean annual loss rate of crops: a case study in Hebei province

IntroductionIns~ce plays an important role in agricultulal deVelopment HOwever, risk for agricultllyal ins~ce isvery high because of high frequenCy of agroclilnatic disaSterS uncehanty of crop loss caused byagroclimahc disasters, and lack of sophishcated methods tO calculate the crop loss rate. Hence tileproblem of how to evalUate the crop loss rate has become an urgency for agricultural insurance as it is akey Step of agricultUral risk assessment and decision maing in insurance prelinum. …     

1961-2005年水利水保措施对潮河流域年径流量的影响(英文)

Taking the Chaohe River Basin above the Miyun Reservoir in North China as a study area,the characteristics and variation trends of annual runoff and annual precipitation during 1961-2005 were analyzed applying Mann-Kendall test method on the basis of the hydrologic data of the major hydrological station(Xiahui Station) located at the outlet of the drainage basin and the meteorological data of 17 rainfall stations.Human activities including water conservancy projects construction and water diversion as well as implementation of soil and water conservation from 1961 to 2005 were carefully studied using time series contrasting method.The referenced period(1961-1980) that influenced slightly by human activities and the compared period(1981-2005) that influenced significantly by water conservancy and soil conservation measures were identified according to the runoff variation process analysis and abrupt change points detection during 1961-2005 applying double accumulative curve method,mean shift t-test method and Mann-Kendall mutation test technique.Based on the establishment of a rainfall-runoff empirical statistical model,impacts and the runoff-reducing effects of water conservancy and soil conservation measures on runoff reduction were evaluated quantitatively.The major results could be summarized as follows:(1) The annual precipitation in the drainage basin tends to decrease while the runoff has declined markedly since the 1960s,the average annual runoff from 1991 to 2000 was only 90.9% in proportion to that from 1961 to 1970.(2) The annual runoff variations in the drainage basin are significantly related to human activities.(3) During 1981-1990,1991-2000,2001-2005 and 1981-2005,the average annual runoff reduction amounts were 1.15×108,0.28×108,1.10×108 and 0.79×108 m3 respectively and the average annual runoff-reducing effects were 31.99%,7.13%,40.71% and 23.79% accordingly.Runoff-reducing effects by water conservancy and soil conservation measures are more prominent in the low water period.     

Impacts of water conservancy and soil conservation measures on annual runoff in the Chaohe River Basin during 1961–2005

Taking the Chaohe River Basin above the Miyun Reservoir in North China as a study area, the characteristics and variation trends of annual runoff and annual precipitation during 1961–2005 were analyzed applying Mann-Kendall test method on the basis of the hydrologic data of the major hydrological station (Xiahui Station) located at the outlet of the drainage basin and the meteorological data of 17 rainfall stations. Human activities including water conservancy projects construction and water diversion as well as implementation of soil and water conservation from 1961 to 2005 were carefully studied using time series contrasting method. The referenced period (1961–1980) that influenced slightly by human activities and the compared period (1981–2005) that influenced significantly by water conservancy and soil conservation measures were identified according to the runoff variation process analysis and abrupt change points detection during 1961–2005 applying double accumulative curve method, mean shift t-test method and Mann-Kendall mutation test technique. Based on the establishment of a rainfall-runoff empirical statistical model, impacts and the runoff-reducing effects of water conservancy and soil conservation measures on runoff reduction were evaluated quantitatively. The major results could be summarized as follows: (1) The annual precipitation in the drainage basin tends to decrease while the runoff has declined markedly since the 1960s, the average annual runoff from 1991 to 2000 was only 90.9% in proportion to that from 1961 to 1970. (2) The annual runoff variations in the drainage basin are significantly related to human activities. (3) During 1981–1990, 1991–2000, 2001–2005 and 1981–2005, the average annual runoff reduction amounts were 1.15×108, 0.28×108, 1.10×108 and 0.79×108 m3 respectively and the average annual runoff-reducing effects were 31.99%, 7.13%, 40.71% and 23.79% accordingly. Runoff-reducing effects by water conservancy and soil conservation measures are more prominent in the low water period.     

An early Holocene erosion phase on the loess tablelands in the southern Loess Plateau of China

A Holocene loess profile to the west of Xi'an China was studied multi-disciplinarily to investigate the relationships between soil erosion and monsoonal climatic change. The proxy data obtained from this aeolian loess and palaeosol sequence indicate large-scale variations of climate in the southern Loess Plateau since the last glaciation. A rainwash bed, indicative of a wetter climate, excessive runoff and erosion on the loess tablelands, was identified relating to the early Holocene before the onset of the “climatic optimum”. This is synchronous with the early Holocene physiographic erosional stage identified in the valleys in North China. It means that severe erosion took place when the region was undergoing climatic amelioration during the early Holocene. The evidence presented in this paper shows that the erosion occurred as a regional response to a monsoonal climatic shift in the southern Loess Plateau. During the last glaciation, prior to the erosion phase, the land surface on the tablelands had been largely stable except for the rapid accumulation of aeolian dust and the resultant increase in its elevation. Relatively slow dust accumulation and intensive bio-pedogenesis responding to the Holocene “climatic optimum” followed the erosion phase. The loess tablelands were most vulnerable to erosion during the large-scale monsoonal climatic shift from dry-cold glacial to humid-warm post-glacial conditions in the southern Loess Plateau.     

近60 a以来祁连山中部气候变化及其径流响应研究

利用1960—2017年水文、气象资料,采用相关分析、Mann-Kendall和小波分析等方法,研究了祁连山中部气候和径流量变化特征。结果表明:(1)近60 a来祁连山中部气温、降水和径流量总体呈现出气温上升、降水增加、径流量增大的趋势。年平均气温以0.39℃·(10 a)^-1的幅度上升,四季气温升高趋势明显,年平均最低气温和冬季气温的升温幅度最高。降水增加了约19.2%,降水的增加主要归因于夏季降水的增多。(2)平均气温在1993年出现突变,气温突变时间早于西北其他地区。气温和降水的主周期分别为8 a和30 a,在径流量周期响应中,短周期(8 a)与平均气温振荡非常一致,长周期(30 a)与年降水变化较为一致。(3)分析表明,降水和气温都是影响径流量变化的主要因素,建立的径流量预测模型纳什效率系数为0.68,能很好的分析和预测径流量,降水和气温变化分别使径流量增加了21.1%和10.9%,降水对径流量的影响作用更大。