台湾南投“9·21”地震活动性分析

本文采用地震学方法 ,分析了台湾南投“9·2 1”地震。结果表明震前存在孕震空区和地震活动性参数异常变化     

基于集集强震群序列地震特征的地震追踪预测

分析集集强震群前余震序列的 7年 (1993/ 0 9/ 2 1— 2 0 0 0 / 0 9/ 2 0 )中震级规模在M =3 0以上的地震目录 ,可以找到前震类型、孕震空区特征、孕震条带特征、前震丛集性活动与信号震特征、主震前平静以及余震序列的二次余震等至少 6项清楚的地震序列特征。利用已发展出的年度强震趋势分析步骤的经验 ,佐以依据地震序列特征进一步加以追踪的观念 ,以集集地震序列分析为例 ,试图将地震趋势分析由年的时间尺度 ,追踪到更短的月的时间范围 ;并尝试建立台湾地区西部地震带浅源强震的追踪分析步骤 ,并为以测震学为基础的地震预测提供逼近短临时间尺度的分析方法。     

地震孕育机制与破裂机制的研究

在理论上得出地震孕育发生的普遍物理机制是:地震前孕震区在垂直向会逐步形成、发展弹性的“拉疏隆起—压缩凹陷”的不稳结构,在水平向也多会形成对称相间分布的两个弹性压缩区及两个弹性拉疏区。应变的“压缩区与拉疏区同时产生、对应存在、共为一体”的这种双向应变结构是地壳构造运动中形成孕震体与非孕震体的根本区别,也是能用以首先找到孕震地区的主要依据;地震的破裂机制是:孕震体形成的双向应变结构,构成了应力集中后的失稳与剪切破裂的必要条件,当初始破裂后,就会引起压缩区与拉疏区发生逆转性的弹性膨胀与收缩的相互配合而不断提供位错空间,从而能使应力与破裂快速地传递与扩张。这一地震孕育与破裂机制的认识,几乎能解释绝大多数的地震前兆现象及震时震后的冒砂、冒水与断层的破裂、错动现象。     

2012年苏门答腊Mw8.6地震成因及与周边大震关系

巽他海沟西侧地壳北向运动的差异性是2012年苏门答腊地震发生的动力学成因.库仑应力计算表明,2004年和2005年苏门答腊2次特大逆冲型地震对本次地震具有显著的触发作用.有记录以来至2011年,本次地震的发震断裂带没有发生过7级以上地震,震源区附近存在5级地震空区,2004年大震后该空区被打破.震前6年、4.5年和3个月发生了3组前震活动,其中最显著的是震前3个月发生的7.2级直接前震.      

黄河黑山峡地区区域地震动力学模式

以黄河黑山峡地区为例,分析了该区区域地震活动的时空分布规律,并依据该地区地壳的分层结构、力学强度特征,分析了区域地震孕育的分层特性以及孕育过程的力学机制.通过对南北向深层孕震带的孕震动力学机制分析,建立了该地区的立交孕震模式.在此基础上分析总结了中卫一同心活动断裂带地震活动的分段特性,及其深部发震的动力学作用.     

活动断层的基本理论与常用研究方法

活动断层是目前工程地震和地震地质领域研究的热点之一,它对于地震的预防和预报都具有极为重要的意义。在不同的专家和学者的研究成果的基础上,结合作者近几年来的学习和研究体会,认为活动断层往往是孕震场所,但并非全部,大地震往往只发生在地震空区的位置。总结了活动断层和地震活动的几条经验性规律。     

2023年8月6日山东德州平原M 5. 5地震同震变形及地震活动性变化数值模拟

2023年8月6日,山东省德州市平原县发生M 5. 5地震,造成了严重的经济损失,打破了山东省近40年未发生M≥5. 0地震的平静期。平原地震震中区域人口稠密,经济发展迅速,其引起的区域地震活动性变化与未来强震发生的可能性是社会关注的热点。本文通过有限元数值模拟方法,建立三维模型研究震中孕震环境及其邻区同震形变应力场,利用假定破裂模型模拟地震同震位错,根据库仑应力变化理论探究周围区域地震活动性变化。结果表明,本次地震主要形变集中于发震断层10 km范围内,震中位置库仑应力下降超过500 kPa,未来短期内强震发生概率不大。平原地震对附近地震活动性造成了一定影响,可能促进了北部走滑型中小震活动,抑制了西侧正断型地震的发生。对于华北平原及邻近断层地震活动性变化仍需要更长时间地震数据和更深入的研究工作。     

从丽江7.0级地震前的地壳形变探讨地震短临前兆特征

本文讨论了“拉疏隆起－压缩凹陷”－不稳定孕震体特性和形成机理,通过对丽江７．０级地震前滇西地区的地壳形变资料,进一步证实本区有强震发生及发震的地点;讨论了孕震体由“僵硬闭锁”到“不同步加速”,“分离反向”“不均匀掀斜”再度“停滞平衡”甚至“颤抖”等多态不稳变化,是地壳形变的短临地震前兆特征;     

2015年尼泊尔8.1级大地震前后喜马拉雅带地震活动图像演变

针对2015年4月25日尼泊尔M8.1地震后喜马拉雅造山带的未来地震危险性问题,通过对喜马拉雅带历史大地震应变能释放和在尼泊尔地震发震前后的区域地震活动图像进行了分析研究。结果发现喜马拉雅带很可能已进入新-轮的地震活跃期。此次尼泊尔大地震不足以将喜马拉雅带中段的地壳应变能全部释放,喜马拉雅带中段的地震活动和藏南裂谷带地震活动具有密切的关联,在喜马拉雅带中段和藏南裂谷带还将有大地震活动。同时研究结果还显示现今在喜马拉雅带的东段存在阿萨姆围空区和不丹围空区,在喜马拉雅的西段出现噶尔围空区,喜马拉雅西段新德里和西藏接壤地区以及喀喇昆仑断裂上噶尔县地区地震危险性很高,喜马拉雅东段林芝山南地区以南的阿萨姆和不丹地区危险性很高,应引起重视。     

昆仑山口西M_S8.1地震前跨断层位移资料异常特征

一、引言 2001年11月14日发生在新疆—青海昆仑山口西的8.1级地震,是本世纪以来中国大陆发生的最大的一次地震,因该震源区附近无任何观测手段,为无监测能力区。但震后我们发现在8.1级地震所波及范围内的各观测手段都有不同程度的长、中、短期及震时异常。在震源区东部的四川、甘肃、宁夏等省跨断层位移观测点均出现不同程度的异常,但当时却未能用这些异常预测出8.1级地震的发震区,这主要是由于构造结构不同使得孕震过程     

The occurrence of large earthquakes in south Italy

An analysis of the data in the catalogues of Italian earthquakes indicates that large earthquakes which occur in the area of radius of about 140 km centered in the Straits of Messina occur in sequences. Each sequence is generally formed by two events and covers an average time window of 10 years.The last four sequences occurred in the time windows 1783–1891, 1818–1823, 1865–1870, 1905–1908 and are separated by about 40 years indicating that in that area there is now a gap in the time domain.The analysis of the data in the Catalogue for the region between the latitudes 39°N and 41°50′N indicates that in that region the large earthquakes occurred in 13 sequences. Each sequence is formed by 3 events in average and covers an average time window of 7 years. This indicates that, after the earthquake of Nov. 1980, which occurred after a gap of 67 years, other moderately large earthquakes may be expected in that area in the next few years.     

采矿诱发地震的震源机制特征——以辽宁省抚顺市老虎台煤矿为例

为探索采矿诱发地震(简称矿震)孕育的机理，以抚顺老虎台煤矿为例，基于双力偶点源的震源模型理论，用地震波P波初动方法，求解出27个较强矿震的震源机制。结合区域强地震震源机制解、地方震小震综合断层面解和极近场矿震震源调查。分析矿震的孕育环境。发现老虎台煤矿矿震与该区域天然地震的震源机制差异明显。得出卸荷产生的次生应力场是孕育矿震的主要应力来源、卸荷重力应力场诱发作用突出的结论。对非双力偶型矿震提出了煤柱失稳和顶板较大规模下沉2种新的解释。提出了减轻矿震的途径。     

Occurrences of major earthquakes by groups in North China

The earthquakes with magnitude M 6 which occurred in North China (30°–42°N, 105°–124°E) from 780 B.C. to 1978 A.D. have been analysed. Most of them appear in groups, each of which is confined to a definite region and period of time, called respectively the active region and active period. From 780 B.C. to 1000 A.D., groupings of earthquakes were not apparent, due to scanty data. Since 1000 A.D., 16 groups of earthquakes can be recognized. Statistics show that about 73% of the earthquakes occurred in groups. This implies that grouping of earthquakes of M 6 is a characteristic feature of seismic activity in North China. On this basis, a concept of a unified seismogenic process of major earthquakes has been proposed with the support of the geodetic data. Finally, the significance of this concept with regards to earthquake prediction has been discussed.     

漳华龙地区地磁异常与地震对应关系分析

选取龙岩台的地磁资料,总结漳华龙地区震例,用压磁效应、感应磁效应等理论解释、分析地震与地磁异常的对应关系。结果表明,不同类型的地震,在孕育地震的不同时期,有不同的地质构造运动,产生的地磁异常也是不尽相同的。地磁异常的显著程度不仅与地震的应力降、震级、以及岩石的磁性有关,还和震源机制关系很大。     

Sources of Mw 5+ earthquakes in northeastern Italy and western Slovenia: An updated view based on geological and seismological evidence

We present an overview of the seismogenic sources of northeastern Italy and western Slovenia, included in the last version of the Database of Individual Seismogenic Sources (DISS 3.0.2) and a new definition of the geometry of the Montello Source that will be included in the next release of the database. The seismogenic sources included in DISS are active faults capable of generating M_w > 5.5 earthquakes. We describe the method and the data used for their identification and characterization, discuss some implications for the seismic hazard and underline controversial points and open issues.In the Veneto–Friuli area (NE Italy), destructive earthquakes up to M_w 6.6 are generated by thrust faulting along N-dipping structures of the Eastern Southalpine Chain. Thrusting along the mountain front responds to about 2 mm/a of regional convergence, and it is associated with growing anticlines, tilted and uplifted Quaternary palaeolandsurfaces and forced drainage anomalies. In western Slovenia, dextral strike–slip faulting along the NW–SE trending structures of the Idrija Fault System dominates the seismic release. Activity and style of faulting are defined by recent earthquakes (e.g. the M_s 5.7, 1998 Bovec–Krn Mt. and the M_w 5.2, 2004 Kobarid earthquakes), while the related recent morphotectonic imprint is still a debated matter.We reinterpreted a large set of tectonic data and developed a segmentation model for the outermost Eastern Southalpine Chain thrust front. We also proposed the association of the four major shocks of the 1976 Friuli earthquake sequence with individual segments of three major thrust fronts. Although several sub-parallel active strike–slip strands exist in western Slovenia, we were able to positively identify only two segments of the Idrija Fault System. A comparison of the regional GPS velocity with long-term geological slip-rates of the seismogenic sources included in DISS shows that from a quarter to half of the deformation is absorbed along the external alignment of thrust faults in Veneto and western Friuli. The partitioning of the deformation in western Slovenia among the different strike–slip strands could not be quantified.     

A comparative study of the main factors controlling geohazards induced by 10 strong earthquakes in Western China since the Wenchuan earthquake in 2008

Determining the main controlling factors of earthquake-triggered geohazards is a prerequisite for studying earthquake geohazards and post-disaster emergency response. By studying these factors, the geomorphic and geological factors controlling the nature, condition, and distribution of earthquake-induced geohazards can be analyzed. Such insights facilitate earthquake disaster prediction and emergency response planning.The authors combined field investigations and spatial data analysis to examine...     

Determination of focal depths of moderate earthquakes in Northeast Indian region using depth phase sPn

Natural Hazards - The precise focal depth of earthquakes is a crucial parameter for better characterising of complex tectonic zones, especially where seismogenic faults occur at different depths....     

Statistics of major Chilean earthquakes recurrence

In this work, we consider historical earthquakes registered in Chile (from 1900 up to 2010) with epicenters located between 19 and 40°S latitude, in order to evaluate the probabilities of the occurrence of strong earthquakes along Chile in the near future. Applying Gumbel??s technique of first asymptotic distribution, Wemelsfelder??s theory and Gutenberg?CRichter relationship, we estimate that during the next decade strong earthquakes with Richter magnitudes larger than 8.7?C8.9 could occur along Chile. According to our analysis, probabilities for the occurrence of such a strong earthquake range between 64 and 46% respectively. Particularly in the very well known ??seismic gap?? of Arica, a convergence motion between Nazca and South American plates of 77?C78?mm/year represents more than 10?m of displacement accumulated since the last big interplate subduction earthquake in this area over 134?years ago. Therefore, this area already has the potential for an earthquake of magnitude >8.     

A deterministic seismic hazard analysis for shallow earthquakes in Greece

The maximum expected ground motion in Greece is estimated for shallow earthquakes using a deterministic seismic hazard analysis (DSHA). In order to accomplish this analysis the input data include an homogeneous catalogue of earthquakes for the period 426 BC–2003, a seismogenic source model with representative focal mechanisms and a set of velocity models. Because of the discrete character of the earthquake catalogue and of errors in location of single seismic events, a smoothing algorithm is applied to the catalogue of the main shocks to get a spatially smoothed distribution of magnitude. Based on the selected input parameters synthetic seismograms for an upper frequency content of 1 Hz are computed on a grid of 0.2° × 0.2°. The resultant horizontal components for displacement, velocity, acceleration and DGA (Design Ground Acceleration) are mapped. The maps which depict these results cannot be compared with previously published maps based on probabilistic methodologies as the latter were compiled for a mean return period of 476 years. Therefore, in order to validate our deterministic analysis, the final results are compared with PGA estimated from the maximum observed macroseismic intensity in Greece during the period 426 BC–2003.Since the results are obtained for point sources, with the frequency content scaled with moment magnitude, some sensitivity tests are performed to assess the influence of the finite extent of fault related to large events. Sensitivity tests are also performed to investigate the changes in the peak ground motion quantities when varying the crustal velocity models in some seismogenic areas. The ratios and the relative differences between the results obtained using different models are mapped and their mean value computed. The results highlight the importance in the deterministic approach of using good and reliable velocity models.     

The 1988 Tennant Creek,northern territory,earthquakes: A synthesis

Three large earthquakes with surface‐wave magnitudes 6.3–6.7 on 22 January 1988 were associated with 32 km of surface faulting on two main scarps 30 km southwest of Tennant Creek in the Northern Territory. These events provide an excellent opportunity to study the mechanics of midplate earthquakes because of the abundance of geological and geophysical data in the area, the proximity of the Warramunga seismic array and the ease of access to the fault zone. The 1988 earthquakes were located in the North Australian Craton in an area that had no history of moderate or large earthquakes before 1986. Additionally, no smaller earthquakes from the fault zone were identified at the Warramunga array, which is situated only 30 km from the nearest scarp, between the 1965 installation of the array and 1986. The main shocks were preceded by a swarm of moderatesized (magnitude 4–5) earthquakes in January 1987 and many smaller aftershocks throughout 1987. Careful relocation of all teleseismically recorded earthquakes from the fault zone shows that the 1987 activity was concentrated in an area only 6 km across in the gap between the two main fault scarps. The main shocks also nucleated in the centre of the fault zone near the 1987 activity. Field observations of scarp morphology indicate that the scarp is divided into three segments, each showing primarily reverse faulting. However, whereas the western and eastern segments show movement of the southern block over the northern, the central scarp segment shows the opposite, with the northern block thrust over the southern block.

Analysis of the first arrival times at Warramunga suggests that the three main shocks were associated with the western, central and eastern scarp segments, respectively. The locations of aftershocks determined using data from temporary seismograph arrays in the epicentral area define three inclined zones of activity that are interpreted as fault planes. In the western and eastern portions of the aftershock zone, these concentrations of activity dip to the south at 45° and 35°, respectively, but in the central section the aftershock zone dips to the north at 55°. Focal mechanisms derived from modelling broadband teleseismic data show thrust and oblique thrust faulting for the three main shocks. The first event ruptured unilaterally up and to the northwest on the westernmost fault segment, while the third main shock ruptured horizontally to the southeast. Modelling of repeat levelling data from the epicentral area requires at least three distinct fault planes, with the eastern and western planes dipping to the south and the central plane dipping to the north. The combination of scarp morphology, aftershock distribution and elevation data makes a strong case for rupture of fault planes in conjugate orientation during the 22 January 1988 Tennant Creek earthquakes. More than 20000 aftershocks have been recorded at Warramunga and activity continues to the present‐day with occasional shocks felt in the town of Tennant Creek and some recent off‐fault aftershocks located directly under the Warramunga seismic array. Stratigraphic relationships exposed in trenches excavated across the scarps suggest that during the Quaternary, a large earthquake ruptured the surface along one segment of the 1988 scarps.