The impact of errors in polar motion and nutation on UT1 determinations from VLBI Intensive observations

The earth’s phase of rotation, expressed as Universal Time UT1, is the most variable component of the earth’s rotation. Continuous monitoring of this quantity is realised through daily single-baseline VLBI observations which are interleaved with VLBI network observations. The accuracy of these single-baseline observations is established mainly through statistically determined standard deviations of the adjustment process although the results of these measurements are prone to systematic errors. The two major effects are caused by inaccuracies in the polar motion and nutation angles introduced as a priori values which propagate into the UT1 results. In this paper, we analyse the transfer of these components into UT1 depending on the two VLBI baselines being used for short duration UT1 monitoring. We develop transfer functions of the errors in polar motion and nutation into the UT1 estimates. Maximum values reach 30 [μs per milliarcsecond] which is quite large considering that observations of nutation offsets w.r.t. the state-of-the-art nutation model show deviations of as much as one milliarcsecond.     

Impact of seasonal station motions on VLBI UT1 intensives results

UT1 estimates obtained from the very long baseline interferometry (VLBI) Intensives data depend on the station displacement model used during processing. In particular, because of seasonal variations, the instantaneous station position during the specific intensive session differs from the position predicted by the linear model generally used. This can cause systematic errors in UT1 Intensives results. In this paper, we first investigated the seasonal signal in the station displacements for the 5 VLBI antennas participating in UT1 Intensives observing programs, along with the 8 collocated GPS stations. It was found that a significant annual term is present in the time series for most stations, and its amplitude can reach 8 mm in the height component, and 2 mm in horizontal components. However, the annual signals found in the displacements of the collocated VLBI and GPS stations at some sites differ substantially in amplitude and phase. The semiannual harmonics are relatively small and unstable, and for most stations no prevailing signal was found in the corresponding frequency band. Then two UT1 Intensives series were computed with and without including the seasonal term found in the previous step in the station movement model. Comparison of these series has shown that neglecting the seasonal station position variations can cause a systematic error in UT1 estimates, which can exceed 1  $\upmu $ s, depending on the observing program.     

The impact of celestial pole offset modelling on VLBI UT1 intensive results

Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI) Intensive sessions are scheduled to provide operational Universal Time (UT1) determinations with low latency. UT1 estimates obtained from these observations heavily depend on the model of the celestial pole motion used during data processing. However, even the most accurate precession- nutation model, IAU 2000/2006, is not accurate enough to realize the full potential of VLBI observations. To achieve the highest possible accuracy in UT1 estimates, a celestial pole offset (CPO), which is the difference between the actual and modelled precession-nutation angles, should be applied. Three CPO models are currently available for users. In this paper, these models have been tested and the differences between UT1 estimates obtained with those models are investigated. It has been shown that neglecting CPO modelling during VLBI UT1 Intensive processing causes systematic errors in UT1 series of up to 20 μas. It has been also found that using different CPO models causes the differences in UT1 estimates reaching 10 μas. Obtained results are applicable to the satellite data processing as well.     

Use of atmospheric angular momentum forecasts for UT1 predictions: analyses over CONT08

Real-time orbit determination and interplanetary navigation require accurate predictions of the orientation of the Earth in the celestial reference frame and in particular that for Universal Time UT1. Much of the UT1 variations over periods ranging from hours to a couple of years are due to the global atmospheric circulation. Therefore, the axial atmospheric angular momentum (AAM) forecast series may be used as a proxy index to predict UT1. Our approach taking advantage of this fact is based on an adaptive procedure. It involves incorporating integrations of AAM estimates into UT1 series. The procedure runs on a routine basis using AAM forecasts that are based on the two meteorological series, from the US National Centers for Environmental Prediction and the Japan Meteorological Agency. It is pertinent to test the prediction method for the period that includes the special CONT08 campaign over which we expect a significant improvement in UT1 accuracy. The studies we carried out were aimed both to compare atmospheric forecasts and analyses, as well as to compare the skills of the UT1 forecasts based on the method with atmospheric forecasts and that using current statistical processes, as applied to the C04 Earth orientation parameters series derived by the International Earth rotation and Reference Systems service (IERS). Here we neglect the oceanic sub-diurnal and diurnal variations, as these signals are expected to be smaller than the UT1-equivalent of 100 μs, when averaged over a few days. The prediction performances for a 2-day forecast are similar, but at a forecast horizon of a week, the AAM-based forecast is roughly twice as skillful as the statistically based one.     

Sensitivity of UT1 determined by single-baseline VLBI to atmospheric delay model, terrestrial and celestial reference frames

 At the present time, the daily VLBI observations on the Westford-Wettzell baseline is the only continually running VLBI project for studies of high-frequency Earth rotation variations. An analysis of this experiment with regard to the potential errors in the atmospheric delay model and in adopted celestial and terrestrial reference frames is presented in the paper. A new VLBI geometric delay model is applied and an algorithm for global adjustment for this specific single-baseline VLBI developed. The results over three years show discrepancies at the milliarcsecond level between the daily observations and the adopted atmospheric model as well as the combined celestial reference frame. A significant number of these discrepancies are removed by the global adjustment. Received: 19 August 1996; Accepted: 13 September 1996     

Earth orientation determinations by short duration VLBI observations

Summary In May 1989 and April 1990 the radio telescopes of the Wettzell Geodetic Fundamental Station in Germany and of the Shanghai Observatory near Seshan in China observed two series of daily VLBI experiments of short duration for precise determination of UT1. In 1990 a few experiments were complemented by the Hartebeesthoek Radio Astronomy Observatory in South Africa and the Medicina telescope of the Bologna Istituto di Radioastronomia in Italy. Employing the South African station together with the east-west baseline formed by the observatories of Seshan and Medicina permitted simultaneous determinations of UT1 and polar motion. Here we report on the results of these observations. Comparing the UT1 results with those of the IRIS Intensive series gives a clear indication of the absolute accuracy of such short duration VLBI measurements which is estimated to be of the order of ±60µs.     

Universal time from VLBI single-baseline observations during CONT08

The IVS Intensive sessions are single-baseline, 1-h VLBI sessions carried out everyday in order to determine Universal Time (UT1). We investigate different possibilities to improve the results of such sessions. We do this investigation by extracting 2-h single-baseline sessions from the CONT08 data set. These are analysed like normal Intensives, and the results are compared to the results of the analysis of the full CONT08 data set. We find that tropospheric asymmetry is the major error source for the single-baseline sessions. It is possible to improve the accuracy of the estimated UT1 either by using accurate a priori tropospheric gradients or by estimating gradients in the data analysis.     

VLBI observations of GNSS-satellites: from scheduling to analysis

The possibility of observing satellites with the very long baseline interferometry (VLBI) technique has been discussed for several years in the geodetic community, with observations of either existing satellites of the global navigation satellite systems or of satellites dedicated to realise a space tie. Such observations were carried out using the Australian telescopes in Hobart and Ceduna which, for the first time, integrated all the necessary steps: planning the observations (automated scheduling), correlation of the data and the generation of a series of time delay observables suitable for a subsequent geodetic analysis. We report on the development of new and the adaptation of existing routines for observing and data processing, focusing on technology development. The aim was to use methods that are routinely used in geodetic VLBI. A series of test experiments of up to six hours duration was performed, allowing to improve the observations from session to session and revealing new problems still to be solved. The newly developed procedures and programs now enable more observations. Further development assumed, this bears the prospect of being directly applied to the observation of dedicated space-tie satellites.     

Improving the modeling of the atmospheric delay in the data analysis of the Intensive VLBI sessions and the impact on the UT1 estimates

The very long baseline interferometry (VLBI) Intensive sessions are typically 1-h and single-baseline VLBI sessions, specifically designed to yield low-latency estimates of UT1-UTC. In this work, we investigate what accuracy is obtained from these sessions and how it can be improved. In particular, we study the modeling of the troposphere in the data analysis. The impact of including external information on the zenith wet delays (ZWD) and tropospheric gradients from GPS or numerical weather prediction models is studied. Additionally, we test estimating tropospheric gradients in the data analysis, which is normally not done. To evaluate the results, we compared the UT1-UTC values from the Intensives to those from simultaneous 24-h VLBI session. Furthermore, we calculated length of day (LOD) estimates using the UT1-UTC values from consecutive Intensives and compared these to the LOD estimated by GPS. We find that there is not much benefit in using external ZWD; however, including external information on the gradients improves the agreement with the reference data. If gradients are estimated in the data analysis, and appropriate constraints are applied, the WRMS difference w.r.t. UT1-UTC from 24-h sessions is reduced by 5% and the WRMS difference w.r.t. the LOD from GPS by up to 12%. The best agreement between Intensives and the reference time series is obtained when using both external gradients from GPS and additionally estimating gradients in the data analysis.     

2012-2016年的VLBI数据解算及分析

针对甚长基线干涉测量技术以其极高的测角精度和稳定性在解算地球定向参数和维持地球参考框架方面发挥着不可替代的作用,但是由于其设备庞大昂贵,因此测站较少且观测不连续的问题,该文首先利用VieVS软件解算了2012—2016年的甚长基线干涉测量数据,获得地球定向参数。提出了采用极坐标插值法对极移参数进行插值,以获取连续的极移参数解。对插值后的极移时间序列进行频谱分析,得到较为明显的周年、半周年等周期项,验证了本文采用插值方法的可行性和可靠性。     

Simulations of VLBI observations of a geodetic satellite providing co-location in space

We performed Monte Carlo simulations of very-long-baseline interferometry (VLBI) observations of Earth-orbiting satellites incorporating co-located space-geodetic instruments in order to study how well the VLBI frame and the spacecraft frame can be tied using such measurements. We simulated observations of spacecraft by VLBI observations, time-of-flight (TOF) measurements using a time-encoded signal in the spacecraft transmission, similar in concept to precise point positioning, and differential VLBI (D-VLBI) observations using angularly nearby quasar calibrators to compare their relative performance. We used the proposed European Geodetic Reference Antenna in Space (E-GRASP) mission as an initial test case for our software. We found that the standard VLBI technique is limited, in part, by the present lack of knowledge of the absolute offset of VLBI time to Coordinated Universal Time at the level of microseconds. TOF measurements are better able to overcome this problem and provide frame ties with uncertainties in translation and scale nearly a factor of three smaller than those yielded from VLBI measurements. If the absolute time offset issue can be resolved by external means, the VLBI results can be significantly improved and can come close to providing 1 mm accuracy in the frame tie parameters. D-VLBI observations with optimum performance assumptions provide roughly a factor of two higher uncertainties for the E-GRASP orbit. We additionally simulated how station and spacecraft position offsets affect the frame tie performance.     

Precise station positions from VLBI observations to satellites: a simulation study

Very long baseline interferometry (VLBI) tracking of satellites is a topic of increasing interest for the establishment of space ties. This shall strengthen the connection of the various space geodetic techniques that contribute to the International Terrestrial Reference Frame. The concept of observing near-Earth satellites demands research on possible observing strategies. In this paper, we introduce this concept and discuss its possible benefits for improving future realizations of the International Terrestrial Reference System. Using simulated observations, we develop possible observing strategies that allow the determination of radio telescope positions in the satellite system on Earth with accuracies of a few millimeters up to 1–2 cm for weekly station coordinates. This is shown for satellites with orbital heights between 2,000 and 6,000 km, observed by dense regional as well as by global VLBI-networks. The number of observations, as mainly determined by the satellite orbit and the observation interval, is identified as the most critical parameter that affects the expected accuracies. For observations of global positioning system satellites, we propose the combination with classical VLBI to radio sources or a multi-satellite strategy. Both approaches allow station position repeatabilities of a few millimeters for weekly solutions.     

Methodology for the combination of sub-daily Earth rotation from GPS and VLBI observations

A combination procedure of Earth orientation parameters from Global Positioning System (GPS) and Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI) observations was developed on the basis of homogeneous normal equation systems. The emphasis and purpose of the combination was the determination of sub-daily polar motion (PM) and universal time (UT1) for a long time-span of 13 years. Time series with an hourly resolution and a model for tidal variations of PM and UT1-TAI (dUT1) were estimated. In both cases, 14-day nutation corrections were estimated simultaneously with the ERPs. Due to the combination procedure, it was warranted that the strengths of both techniques were preserved. At the same time, only a minimum of de-correlating or stabilizing constraints were necessary. Hereby, a PM time series was determined, whose precision is mainly dominated by GPS observations. However, this setup benefits from the fact that VLBI delivered nutation and dUT1 estimates at the same time. An even bigger enhancement can be seen for the dUT1 estimation, where the high-frequency variations are provided by GPS, while the long term trend is defined by VLBI. The estimated combined tidal PM and dUT1 model was predominantly determined from the GPS observations. Overall, the combined tidal model for the first time completely comprises the geometrical benefits of VLBI and GPS observations. In terms of root mean squared (RMS) differences, the tidal amplitudes agree with other empirical single-technique tidal models below 4 μas in PM and 0.25 μs in dUT1. The noise floor of the tidal ERP model was investigated in three ways resulting in about 1 μas for diurnal PM and 0.07 μs for diurnal dUT1 while the semi-diurnal components have a slightly better accuracy.     

Ionospheric calibration of single frequency VLBI and GPS observations using dual GPS data

Summary The ionospheric effect is one of the main sources of error in Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI) and Global Positioning System (GPS) high precision geodesy. Although the use of two frequencies allows the estimation of this effect, in some cases dual observations are not possible due to the available equipment or the type of observation. This paper presents the ionospheric calibration of single frequency VLBI and GPS observations based on the ionospheric electron content estimated from dual frequency GPS data. The ionospheric delays obtained with this procedure and the VLBI baseline length results have been compared with those obtained with dual frequency data. For the European geodetic VLBI baselines, both solutions agree at the 3–5 parts in 10^–9 level. The noise introduced by the GPS-based calibration is in the order of 3 cm for the VLBI observables and of 10 cm for the GPS observables.     

Effect of the selection of reference radio sources on geodetic estimates from VLBI observations

This paper evaluates the effect of the accuracy of reference radio sources on the daily estimates of station positions, nutation angle offsets, and the estimated site coordinates determined by very long baseline interferometry (VLBI), which are used for the realization of the international terrestrial reference frame (ITRF). Five global VLBI solutions, based on VLBI data collected between 1979 and 2006, are compared. The reference solution comprises all observed radio sources, which are treated as global parameters. Four other solutions, comprising different sub-sets of radio sources, were computed. The daily station positions for all VLBI sites and the corrections to the nutation offset angles were estimated for these five solutions. The solution statistics are mainly affected by the positional instabilities of reference radio sources, whereas the instabilities of geodetic and astrometric time-series are caused by an insufficient number of observed reference radio sources. A mean offset of the three positional components (Up, North, East) between any two solutions was calculated for each VLBI site. From a comparison of the geodetic results, no significant discrepancies between the respective geodetic solutions for all VLBI sites in the Northern Hemisphere were found. In contrast, the Southern Hemisphere sites were more sensitive to the selected set of reference radio sources. The largest estimated mean offset of the vertical component between two solutions for the Australian VLBI site at Hobart was 4 mm. In the worst case (if a weak VLBI network observed a limited number of reference radio sources) the daily offsets of the estimated height component at Hobart exceeded 100 mm. The exclusion of the extended radio sources from the list of reference sources improved the solution statistics and made the geodetic and astrometric time-series more consistent. The problem with the large Hobart height component offset is magnified by a comparatively small number of observations due to the low slewing rate of the VLBI dish (1°/ s). Unless a minimum of 200 scans are performed per 24-h VLBI experiment, the daily vertical positions at Hobart do not achieve 10 mm accuracy. Improving the slew rate at Hobart and/or having an increased number of new sites in the Southern Hemisphere is essential for further improvement of geodetic VLBI results for Southern Hemisphere sites.     

利用小波分解改进极移预报模型

高精度的日长（length of day,LOD）变化ΔLOD预报值在深空探测器跟踪、卫星自主导航和气候预测等领域具有重要作用。针对ΔLOD复杂的时变特性,首先,利用奇异谱分析（singular spectrum analysis,SSA）方法提取ΔLOD时间序列中的趋势项、周年项与半周年项等主成分,并基于SSA迭代插值算法对主成分进行外推;其次,采用差分自回归滑动平均（autoregressive integrated moving average,ARIMA）模型对扣除主成分的剩余项进行建模预测;最后,将SSA主成分外推值与ARIMA预测值相加获得ΔLOD预报值。选取国际地球自转与参考系服务组织发布的2000-01-01—2001-12-31的ΔLOD数据进行1~365 d跨度的预报实验,并将SSA+ARIMA预报结果与反向传播神经网络、广义回归神经网络和高斯过程等机器学习方法的预报结果进行对比分析。结果表明,SSA+ARIMA方法的预报精度优于几种机器学习方法,特别是中长期预报精度优势更为显著,其中,对于1~30 d短期和30~365 d中长期的预报,SSA+ARIMA方法的平均绝对预报误差相对于机器学习方法最大分别降低了39%和61%。

     

不同UT1周日变化海潮模型结果的比较

比较了基于 TOPEX/ Poseidon卫星测高资料 ,长时期甚长基线干涉测量 (VLBI)观测和人卫激光测距 (SLR)观测所决定的地球自转周日变化。经比较显示 ,不同技术或同一种技术使用不同的方法所获得结果是有差异的 ,同一种技术内部符合较好 ,而不同技术间存在系统差。另外 ,我们根据 93年～ 94年的 VL BI观测资料获得一个结果 ,由于观测资料少 ,所获得结果差异较大 ,但 UT1周日变化的大体趋势一致。     

利用OKF方法监测UT1周日变化

为了有效地利用甚长线干涉测量技术监测世界时的周日变化，本文引入了单参数分段卡尔曼滤段法。利用这一方法能从２４小时ＶＬＢＩ观测资料中可靠地分离出分辨率为１小时的ＵＴ１变化量，从而为研究地球自转高频变化作出贡献。     

利用天测与测地VLBI观测建立天球与地球参考架

本文讨论了利用天测与测地 VLBI观测建立天球与地球参考架过程中所面临的问题及解决的技术途径 ,涉及天球参考架与地球参考架原点与定向的确定、地球参考架时间演变的确定等。并通过实测数据分析与结果比对证明解决途径的有效性。