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1.
This paper has introduced the method of self-similarity analysis of time series into the analysis and study of earthquake
sequence, and then researched its application in earthquake prediction. As parameter of earthquake time series, we can take
the cumulated sum of the numbers of equivalent earthquakesQ=ΣN*, the numbers of equivalent earthquakeN*, maximum magnitudeM
max, average magnitudeQ=ΣN*, and the difference ΔN* between the numbersN* in two adjacent time intervals. The given method may be applied to analysis of long-period seismic sequences in different
regions as well as to anlysis of seismic sequence in the aftershock region of strong earthquake. For making quantitative analysis
the coefficient of self-similarity of earthquake sequence in order of timeμs was introduced. The results of self-similarity analysis were obtained for the earthquake sequences in North China, West South
China, the Capital region of China, and for the East Yamashi region of Japan. They show that in period or half year to several
years beforeM⩾7.0 andM⩾6.0 earthquakes occurred in these regions separately, the self-similarity coefficientμs calculated by using the above-mentioned parameters had remarkably anamalous decrease variations. The duration time ofμs anomaly depends on the earthquake magnitude and may be different from different regions. Therefore, the self-similarity coefficient
in order of timeμs can be considered as a long-medium term precursory index.
The Chinese version of this paper appeared in the Chinese edition ofActa Seismologica Sinica,15, 455–462, 1993. 相似文献
2.
Liu Jianming Wang Qiong Nie Xiaohong Gao Ge Zhang Linlin Zhang Zhiguang Xiang Yang 《中国地震研究》2017,31(3):381-394
This paper introduces the basic parameters, focal mechanism solutions and earthquake sequence characteristics of the Kalpin MS5.3 earthquake sequence of December 1, 2013, and analyzed seismic activity before the earthquake, the adjacent tectonic features and the precursory anomaly at fixed points within a range of 200km. Research indicates:(1) The earthquake occurred on Kalpin fault, the source rupture type is thrust faulting with sinistral strike-slip component. (2) The earthquake sequence is mainshock-aftershock type, with the aftershock distribution attenuating quickly and trending NE. (3) Abnormal seismic activity before the earthquake was characterized by seismically nesting quiescence of MS2.0-4.0 earthquakes, seismic quiescence of MS4.0 earthquakes and seismic belts of MS3.0 earthquakes in the Kalpin block, abnormal enhancement zone of moderate earthquakes on Puchang fault and seismological parameters. (4) Anomalies of precursory observation data at fixed stations are mainly characterized by mutation. Apart from the borehole tiltmeter in Halajun, the spatial distribution of other abnormal precursors showed a phenomenon of migration from the near field to far field and from the epicenter to the peripheries. 相似文献
3.
Kiyoo Mogi 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1988,126(2-4):447-463
Before the 1944 Tonankai earthquake along the Nankai Trough, seismic activity increased in the shallow depths, and then the activity gradually migrated downwards. When it reached its limit (a depth of approximatelty 70 km), the main shock occurred. Several deep earthquakes, including one ofM5.3, occurred several months prior to the Tonankai earthquake. A similar downward migration pattern also can be recognized regarding the 1952 Tokachi-oki earthquake. In this case the deepest earthquakes reached about 400 km. This may be one of the intermediate-term precursory phenomena of great thrusttype earthquakes in subduction zones. Recent observations in the Tokai district along the Suruga Trough, where a large earthquake is expected to occur in the future, suggest a similar downward migration pattern in the land area. 相似文献
4.
Mansour Niazi 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1984,122(6):966-981
Around 700 reported precursors of about 350 earthquakes, including the negative observations, have been compiled in 11 categories with 31 subdivisions. The data base is subjected to an initial sorting and screening by imposing three restrictions on the ranges of main shock magnitude (M≥4.0), precursory time (t≤20 years), and the epicentral distance of observation points (X m≤4.100.3M ). Of the 31 subcategories of precursory phenomena, 18 with 9 data points or more are independently studied by regressing their precursory times against magnitude. The preliminary results tend to classify the precursors into three groups:
- The precursors which show weak or no correlation between time and the magnitude of the eventual main shock. Examples of this group are foreshocks and precursory tilt.
- The precursors which show clear scaling with magnitude. These include seismic velocity ratio (V p/Vs), travel time delay, duration of seismic quiescence, and, to some degree, the variation ofb-value, and anomalous seismicity.
- The precursors which display clustering of precursory times around a mean value, which differs for different precursors from a few hours to a few years. Examples include the conductivity rate, geoelectric current and potential, strain, water well level, geochemical anomalies, change of focal mechanism, and the enhancement of seismicity reported only for larger earthquakes. Some of the precursors in this category, such as leveling changes and the occurrence of microseismicity, show bimodal patterns of precursory times and may partially be coseismic.
5.
A method is proposed for assessing the modifying effects of precursory observations on long-term probabilities of strong earthquakes (M6). Estimated short-and intermediate-term probabilities so estimated rely on the mean precursory time and its uncertainty as a function of the mainshock magnitude and epicentral position. Short-and intermediate-term modification of long-term probabilities within a 120,000 km2 circular area covering most of Southern California are estimated for one or more observations of strain, resistivity, and ground water anomalies centered near Palmdale in the central Transverse Ranges. The principal assumptions employed are log normal distribution of globally reported waiting periods and assumed predictive reliability of precursory phenomena. As expected, the significance of short-and intermediate-term modifications scale with the reliability of precursory observations, and are particularly enhanced within window lengths of a precursory characteristic time. 相似文献
6.
7.
SourceparametersoftheGonghe,QinghaiProvince,China,earthquakefrominversionofdigitalbroadbandwaveformdataLI-SHENGXU(许立生)andYUN... 相似文献
8.
Hao Xiong 《地震学报(英文版)》1992,5(2):407-412
The paper briefly reviews the recent advances and the main trend, as well as the major subjects for future study in the research
on seismo-electromagnetic emissions. The preliminary results obtained show that the recently discovered electromagnetic emission
phenomena prior to earthquake events are objective facts and may be prospective precursor applicable for short term earthquake
prediction. Considering the complexity of the generation mechanisms, as well as the space coupling and the time variation
processes of the seismo-electromagnetic emissions, we must deeply study the essential connection between the precursory emission
phenomena and the seismogenic processes. Closely connect the field observations and theoretical research and try to comprehensively
diagnose by correlating with other precursors.
The Chinese version of this paper appeared in the Chinese edition ofActa Seismologica Sinica,13, 254–258, 1991. 相似文献
9.
本文利用“中国地壳运动观测网络(二期)”多个GPS连续观测站观测数据处理结果,将2013年4月20日四川芦山MS7.0地震区域参考框架同震水平位移与全球参考框架同震水平位移进行比较,结果表明两组框架解一致,说明两种参考框架均可当作位错参考框架,也即全球参考框架同震水平位移也可视为区域参考框架同震水平位移.区域参考框架下GPS连续观测站地震前的水平位移和同震水平位移结果表明,震前数年,SCTQ站西侧的GPS站构造运动十分显著,而该站水平位移却很小,即出现反常的闭锁.但该站的同震水平位移使其弹性回跳至正常构造水平位移水平,因此SCTQ站震前的位移闭锁是水平位移空间分布中的异常,是芦山MS7.0地震的前兆.水平位移时空变化表明,该站震前和震时位移完全符合里德的弹性回跳理论.区域参考框架中位移时间系列和同震水平位移的综合研究有助于对芦山地震地壳运动前兆的认识和解释.尽管本文未能直接采用其它GPS连续观测站的资料,但结合本文和其它研究结果可以证实,震中附近其它站地震前后的变化与SCTQ站类似.基于芦山地震前水平位移和同震水平位移及其与前兆关系的研究,本文进一步讨论了GPS监测网的布设、 数据处理和分析等问题. 相似文献
10.
11.
QI-QI L 《地震学报(英文版)》2000,13(2):203-209
This paper used the thermal infrared data of the satellite NOAA-AAVHRR of the north part of North China (113°~119° E, 38°~42° N), and processed the remote sensing data through radiation adjustment, geometric adjustment and so on by the software "The Monitoring and Fast Process System of Earthquake Precursor Thermal Infrared Anomaly", inversed the earth surface temperature. Some disturbances effect had been excluded, and thermal infrared temperature anomaly had been extracted by the picture difference method. The Zhangbei MS=6.2 earthquake is used as the example in the paper, so that in the paper thermal infrared characteristics on time-space before earthquake and the relationship between the anomaly and the earthquake prediction have been summarized.Within more than ten days before the Zhangbei earthquake, the thermal infrared anomaly had emerged widely along Zhangjiakou-Bohai seismic belt, and the anomalous region seemed like a belt and it is also consistent with the tectonic background there; the anomaly expanded from the outside toward the earthquake focus, but the focus lay at the edge of the thermal infrared region. So it is possible to explore a new anomaly observation method for earthquake prediction by observing and studying the satellite thermal infrared anomaly before big earthquakes happen. 相似文献
12.
利用宁夏地区2011—2013年期间多期重力观测资料,采用中国地震局推广的LG-ADJ程序对观测资料进行平差处理,给出地震前后3年的区域重力场变化和点值变化图像。结合构造活动分析,对2012永宁4.6级地震前后宁夏地区重力异常变化进行研究。认为:2012年永宁地震前,测区重力场出现较好的中期前兆性变化图像,临震前短期异常突增,重力场在空间和量值上均出现大幅的上升变化,重力点值震前趋势下降-转折上升-加速上升-发震的变化,是非常值得关注的前兆异常。 相似文献
13.
Liu Pu-xiong Zheng Da-lin Che Shi Pan Huai-wen Liu Gui-ping Yang Li-ming 《地震学报(英文版)》2003,16(2):219-225
A great earthquake of M
S=8.1 took place in the west of Kunlun Pass on November 14, 2001. The epicenter is located at 36.2°N and 90.9°E. The analysis
shows that some main precursory seismic patterns appear before the great earthquake, e.g., seismic gap, seismic band, increased activity, seismicity quiet and swarm activity. The evolution of the seismic patterns
before the earthquake of M
S=8.1 exhibits a course very similar to that found for earthquake cases with M
S≥7. The difference is that anomalous seismicity before the earthquake of M
S=8.1 involves in the larger area coverage and higher seismic magnitude. This provides an evidence for recognizing precursor
and forecasting of very large earthquake. Finally, we review the rough prediction of the great earthquake and discuss some
problems related to the prediction of great earthquakes. 相似文献
14.
XIN YANG GUO YING GAO Seismological Bureau of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region rümqi China 《地震学报(英文版)》1998,11(6):669-676
ntroductionXinjiangisaseismicalyactiveregioninChina,andJiashiisafocalmonitoringareainXinjiang.IntheperiodfromJanuary21toApril... 相似文献
15.
Relation between the characteristics of strong earthquake activities in Chinese mainland and the Wenchuan earthquake
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This paper studies the relations between the great Wenchuan earthquake and the active-quiet periodic characteristics of strong earthquakes, the rhythmic feature of great earthquakes, and the grouped spatial distribution of MS8.0 earthquakes in Chinese mainland. We also studied the relation between the Wenchuan earthquake and the stepwise migration characteristics of MS?≥7.0 earthquakes on the North-South seismic belt, the features of the energy releasing acceleration in the active crustal blocks related to the Wenchuan earthquake and the relation between the Wenchuan earthquake and the so called second-arc fault zone. The results can be summarized as follows: ① the occurrence of the Wenchuan earthquake was consistent with the activequiet periodic characteristics of strong earthquakes; ② its occurrence is consistent with the features of grouped occurrence of MS8.0 earthquakes and follows the 25 years rhythm (each circulation experiences the same time) of great earthquakes; ③ the Wenchuan MS8.0 earthquake follows the well known stepwise migration feature of strong earthquakes on the North-South seismic belt; ④ the location where the Wenchuan MS8.0 earthquake took place has an obvious consistency with the temporal and spatial characteristic of grouped activity of MS≥?7.0 strong earthquakes on the second-arc fault zone; ⑤ the second-arc fault zone is not only the lower boundary for earthquakes with more than 30 km focal depth, but also looks like a lower boundary for deep substance movement; and ⑥ there are obvious seismic accelerations nearby the Qaidam and Qiangtang active crustal blocks (the northern and southern neighbors of the Bayan Har active block, respectively), which agrees with the GPS observation data. 相似文献
16.
Thenumericalsimulationofthesourcedevel┐opmentoftheTangshanearthquakeZHI-RENNIU(牛志仁)DANG-MINCHEN(陈党民)BING-QIANLI(李炳乾)Seismolo... 相似文献
17.
Wang Shuang-xu Jiang Zai-sen Chen Wen-sheng Zhang Xi Chen Bing Zhang Si-xin Wang Ji-ying 《地震学报(英文版)》2001,14(2):156-165
The time-space distribution characteristics of fault deformation anomaly in the near-source region and its outlying zone in
the seismogenic process of the Jingtai M
s=5.9 earthquake occurred on June 6, 2000 in Gansu Province is studied preliminarily. The distribution scope of fault deformation
anomaly before the earthquake is wide, the anomaly shape is complicated and the pattern anomalous zone of fault deformation
(strain) information index is obvious. The shape and amplitude of fault deformation anomaly in different regions differ significantly,
which is closely related with the tectonic location of anomaly. The fault deformation anomaly of α, β, and γ phases along
the western segment of Haiyuan fault zone shows the process from the quasi-linearity to non-linearity of fault movement in
the near-source region, matches the high-value anomalous area of fault deformation (strain) information index, and reflects
the high strain accumulation in the seismogenic region. However, the anomaly of abrupt jump and cusp with a large amplitude
occurred in the areas far from the earthquake, such as Liupanshan fault zone which is the tectonic convergent section does
not reflect the strain accumulation of its location, maybe it is a sign that the regional tectonic stress field is strengthened
in the seismogenic process. Based on the above-mentioned facts and combined with the preliminary summary of experiences and
lessons in the intermediate and short-term prediction of the Jingtai M
s=5.9 earthquake, we study and explore the application of fault deformation anomaly to earthquake judgment.
Foundation item: National Key Basic Research Development Program (G1998040703 and G1998040705), and State Scientific and Technological Project
of the “Ninth Five-Year Plan” (96-913-09-01-02-03 and 96-913-09-02-02-03), China. 相似文献
18.
The source parameters of the Bohai Sea earthquake, July 18, 1969 and Yongshan, Yunnan earthquake, May 11, 1974 were determined
by full — wave theory synthetic seismograms of teleseismic P waves. P+pP+sP wereform were calculated with WKBJ approximation
and real integral paths. One — dimensional unilateral, finite propagation source was also considered. By trail — and — error
in comparing the theoretical seismograms with the observational ones of WWSSN stations, the source parameters were obtained
as follow: for Bohai earthquake, φ=195°, δ=85°, λ=65°,M
o=0.9×1019Nm,L=59.9km.V
R=3.5km/s, ∧
R
=160°; for Yongshan earthquake, φ=240°, δ=80°, ∧=150°,M
o=1.3×1018Nm,L=48.8km,V
R=3km/s, ∧
R
=−10°, where φ is strike, δ dip angle, λ slip angle,M
o seismic moment,L rupture length,V
R rupture propagation speed. As III type fractures the faulting propagated along the fault planes, and ∧
R
is the angle from the strike to the propagation direction. Yongshan earthquake showed complexity in its focal process, having
four sub—ruptures during the first 60 seconds.
The Chinese version of this paper appeared in the Chinese edition ofActa Seismologica Sinica,13, 1–8, 1991. 相似文献
19.
Seismogenicmodelofearthquakesingroups intectonicblockandanalysisforsomefeaturesofearthquakeprecursoryfieldGuo-MinZHANG;Lu-Min... 相似文献