Numerical weather prediction relevant to the monsoon problem

In this short paper we have identified some of the modelling groups that have the capability of simulating or carrying out short range numerical weather prediction over the monsoon belt. We have next outlined some of the important and desirable ingredients for a multilevel primitive equation model over the tropics, with most of the emphasis on the present version of Florida State University's Tropical Prediction Model. Finally, we present briefly some important results based on the present version of our prediction models that relate to the NWP efforts over the monsoon belt. Here we have identified the importance of mountains, convection, the radiative heating balance of the earth's surface, and the planetary boundary layer over the Arabian Sea.     

A study of energetics during an active monsoon over Indian region

The various forms of energy and energy conversions have been computed over a part of the Indian region during an active monsoon period, using the quasigeostrophic baroclinic model. The energetics of the monsoon depression have been discussed on the basis of these results.     

Water vapour transport of the pre-monsoon period and the general performance of the Indian summer monsoon

The advective monthly mean transfer of water vapour in the layer below 700 mbar is investigated for India for the years 1962 to 1972 and for the months January to September. The average zonal and meridional components of the transfer of water vapour for India are obtained. They are further averaged for different combinations of the pre-monsoon months from January to May and are correlated with the summer monsoon rainfall. The correlation coefficients for zonal transfer of water vapour are either negative or small positive for different combinations of the months mentioned above. The correlation coefficients for the meridional transfer of water vapour are positive. The maximum value is 0.74 for the March to May combination and is statistically significant at the 1% level.An extensive investigation is, therefore, made for the March to May averages of water vapour transfer for four broad regions of India. The parameters of water vapour transfer for these regions are compared with the threshold values and the prediction category, normal or drought, for the subsequent summer monsoon season is determined for all years. The correlation coefficient between the index of drought, as determined from parameters of water vapour transport and rainfall departure, is statistically significant at the 2% level.     

The south to north progression of rainfall anomalies across India during the summer monsoon season

The low frequency spatio-temporal intraseasonal evolution of monsoon rainfall over India is studied by considering the pentad rainfall averages taken over 2.5° wide and 5.0° long blocks lying across the central longitudinal and latitudinal transacts. The time-latitude cross sections show south to north progressions of rainfall anomalies with a recurrence period of about 40 days. The progressions show considerable inter-annual and intra-seasonal variation in frequency, amplitude and rate of progression. The extended empirical orthogonal function analysis shows that the first two most important functions correspond to this northward progression of rain anomalies recurring after an interval of about 40 days. The rate of progression of anomalies is about 0.5° Lat./day. The time-longitude cross sections show the movement of rainfall anomalies towards both directions east and the west, with slight preference towards the east. The importance of these signals in rainfall forecasting is foreseen.     

Meridional transport of sensible heat in contrasting monsoon activity: Spherical harmonic analysis

Spherical harmonic analysis is made of the grid point values of geopotential heights at 700 mb and 300 mb levels for the months April to August for the years 1967 and 1972. The year 1967 is a good monsoon year and 1972 is a bad monsoon year in India. Meridional transport of sensible heat is obtained in wave number domain using spherical harmonic coefficients at 500 mb level form=1 to 10 andn–m=0 to 10, wherem represents the wave number round the globe andn–m gives the numbers of zero points from north pole to south pole excluding the poles themselves.Large northward transports of sensible heat in the month of May and in the monsoon months at the subtropics are characteristic of bad monsoon. Wave 1 transports sensible heat southward (forn–m=0) and wave 2 transports sensible heat northward (forn–m=4). Strengthening of wave 1 is conducive to good monsoon year and strengthening of wave 2 is conducive to bad monsoon year. These are the same features obtained in Fourier analysis. The contrasting features exist in waves 1 and 2 both in good and in bad monsoon and are better defined in the present analysis than in the Fourier analysis of the earlier study. However, waves 1 and 2 reveal clearer contrast in the present analysis than in the Fourier analysis. Bad monsoon activity is associated with large divergence of heart at subtropics and large convergence of heat at extra tropics.     

Some aspects of the monsoon circulation and monsoon rainfall

Summary The south Asian summer monsoon from June to September accounts for the greater part of the annual rainfall over most of India and southeast Asia. The evolution of the summer and winter monsoon circulations over India is examined on the basis of the surface and upper air data of stations across India. The salient features of the seasonal reversals of temperature and pressure gradients and winds and the seasonal and synoptic fluctuations of atmospheric humidity are discussed. The space-time variations of rainfall are considered with the help of climatic pentad rainfall charts and diagrams. The rainfall of several north and central Indian stations shows a minimum around mid-August and a maximum around mid-February which seem to be connected with the extreme summer and winter positions of the ITCZ and the associated north-south shifts in the seasonal circulation patterns. Attention is drawn to the characteristic features of the monsoon rainfall that emerge from a study of daily and hourly rainfall of selected stations. Diurnal variations of temperature, pressure, wind and rainfall over the monsoon belt are briefly treated.     

Diagnosis of the satellite-observed radiative heating in relation to the summer monsoon

Seasonal and monthly global patterns of outgoing longwave radiation, albedo, absorbed solar radiation, and net radiation have been derived from scanning radiometer observations aboard the NOAA polar orbiting satellites since June 1974. These patterns, along with patterns of interannual differences in seasonal and monthly heating, are examined for the three summers of 1974–76 over the Eastern Hemisphere in relation to the variations in the summer monsoon and the major circulation features. During portions of the summer of 1975 the monsoon was more active than in 1974 and 1976, as evidenced by increased albedo and decreased longwave radiation over large sections of India, the Indian Ocean, Southeast Asia, and the Western Pacific. The roles of clouds, snow cover, and other surface characteristics in modulating the radiation balance and circulation are discussed. The pre-monsoon radiative heating in spring is examined with respect to monsoon onset and intensity in the three years.     

Application of a stochastic model to the frequency and duration of monsoon rainfall

The paper deals with an application of a stochastic model to the frequency and duration of precipitation events. With the aid of the model, the magnitudes ofmth highest rainfall amount in 24 hours' duration with 97.5% probability are obtained for various climatic regimes over a tropical monsoon region. There is good agreement between them-day minimum rainfall estimated through the model and the observed value. The model satisfactorily explains the frequency of the extreme rainfall event.     

Wave to wave and wave to zonal mean flow kinetic energy exchanges during contrasting monsoon years

Fourier analysis of the monthly mean northern hemispheric geopotential heights for the levels 700 mb and 300 mb are undertaken for the months of April through to August. The wave to wave and wave to zonal mean flow kinetic energy interactions are computed for specified latitude bands of the northern hemisphere during the pre-monsoon period (April to May) and monsoon period (June through to August) for bad monsoon years (1972, 1974, 1979) and for years of good monsoon rainfall over India (1967, 1973, 1977). Planetary scale waves (waves 1 to 4) are the major kinetic energy source in the upper atmosphere during the monsoon months. Waves 1 and 2 in particular are a greater source of kinetic energy to other waves via both wave to wave interactions as well as wave to zonal mean flow interactions in good monsoon years than in bad monsoon years. The zonal mean flow shows significantly larger gains in the kinetic energy with a strengthening of zonal westerlies in good monsoon years than in bad monsoon years.     

Hemispheric simulation of the Asian summer monsoon

A three-level, -plane, filtered model is used to simulate the Northern Hemisphere summer monsoon. A time-averaged initial state, devoid of sub-planetary scale waves, is integrated through 30 days on a 5° latitude-longitude grid. Day 25 through day 30 integrations are then repeated on a 2.5° grid. The planetary-scale waves are forced by time-independent, spatially varying diabatic heating. Energy is extracted via internal and surface frictional processes. Orography is excluded to simplify synoptic-scale energy sources.During integration the model energy first increases, but stabilizes near day 10. Subsequent flow patterns closely resemble the hemisphere summer monsoon. Climatological features remain quasi-stationary. At 200 mb high pressure dominates the land area, large-scale troughs are found over the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, the easterly jet forms south of Asia, and subtropical jets develop in the westerlies. At 800 mb subtropical highs dominate the oceans and the monsoon trough develops over the Asian land mass. The planetary scales at all levels develop a realistic cellular structure from the passage of transient synoptic-scale features, e.g., a baroclinic cyclone track develops near 55°N and westward propagating waves form in the easterlies.Barotropic redistribution of kinetic energy is examined over a low-latitude zonal strip using a Fourier wave-space. In contrast to higher latitudes where the zonal flow and both longer and shorter waves are fed by barotropic energy redistribution from the baroclinically unstable wavelengths, the low-latitude waves have a planetary-scale kinetic energy source. Wave numbers 1 and 2 maintain both the zonal flow and all shorter scales via barotropic transfers. Transient and standing wave processes are examined individually and in combination.Wave energy accumulates at wave numbers 7 and 8 at 200 mb and at wave number 11 in the lower troposphere. The 800-mb waves are thermally indirect and in the mean they give energy to the zonal flow. These characteristics agree with atmospheric observation. The energy source for these waves is the three wave barotropic transfer. The implications of examining barotropic processes in a Fourier wave-space, vice the more common approach of separating the flow into a mean plus a deviation are discussed.     

Effects of a variety of Indian Ocean surface temperature anomaly patterns on the summer monsoon circulation: Experiments with the NCAR general circulation model

The time mean response of the summer monsoon circulation, as simulated by the 2.5° latitude-longitude resolution, July version of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) General Circulation Model (GCM), to a variety of Indian Ocean surface temperature anomaly patterns is examined. In separate experiments, prescribed changes in surface temperature are imposed in the Western Arabian Sea, the Eastern Arbian Sea or the Central Indian Ocean. The influence of these anomaly patterns on the simulated summer monsoon circulation is evaluated in terms of the geographical distribution of the prescribed change response for any field of interest. This response is defined as the grid point difference between a 30-day mean from a prescribed change experiment and the ensemble average of the 30-day means from the control population for which the same set of climatological ocean surface temperatures are used in each simulation. The statistical significance of such a prescribed change response is estimated by relating the normalized response (defined as the ratio of the prescribed change response to the standard deviation of 30-day means as estimated from the finite sample of control cases) to the classical Student'st-statistic. Using this methodology, the most prominent and statistically significant features of the model's response are increased vertical velocity and precipitation over warm anomalies and typically decreased vertical velocity and precipitation in some preferred region adjacent to the prescribed change region. In the case of cold anomalies, these changes are of opposite sign. However, none of the imposed anomaly patterns produces substantial or statistically significant precipitation changes over large areas of the Indian sub-continent. The only evidence of a major nonlocal effect is found in the experiment with a large positive anomaly (+3°C) in the Central Indian Ocean. In this instance, vertical velocity and precipitation are reduced over Malaysia and a large area of the Equatorial Western Pacific Ocean. Thus, while these anomaly experiments produce only a local response (for the most part), it is hoped, as one of the purposes of the planned Monsoon Experiment (MONEX), that the necessary data will be provided to produce detailed empirical evidence on the extent to which Indian Ocean surface temperature anomalies correlate with precipitation anomalies over the Indian subcontinent—a correlation which generally does not appear in these GCM results.The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation     

The simulation of the Asian summer monsoon by general circulation models

Summary The monsoon simulations of four general circulation models are illustrated. Additional results from the Meteorological Office model showing factors that are important in determining its simulation are presented. The large-scale flow patterns of all the models reproduce the large-scale flow fairly realistically, but more detailed characteristics and, in particular, the rainfall, are poorly represented.     

Baroclinic energetics and zonal plane distribution of monsoon disturbances

The adiabatic, quasi-geostraphic, 25-layer, numerical, linear model with Ekman boundary layer friction is utilised to perform the baroclinic stability analysis of the mean monsoon zonal wind profile. It is shown thec _i is a function of the resultant wavenumber alone. This relation is able to explain the effects of the lateral walls on the unstable waves.The energetics and zonal plane distribution of the short and long preferred viscous waves are computed. The upward motion of the short wave together with the warm (cold) core lies to the west of the surface trough position above (below) 850 mb. Further, it is shown that the main source of kinetic energy for the wave lies in the middle layer (850–700 mb) which is transported to the lower and upper layers. Computed is found to be in good agreement with observed values.     

Barotropic-Baroclinic instability of mean zonal wind during summer monsoon

Barotropic-Baroclinic instability of horizontally and vertically shearing mean monsoon flow during July is investigated numerically by using a 10-layer quasi-geostrophic model. The most unstable mode has a wavelength of about 3000 km and westward phase speed of about 15 m sec^–1. The most dominant energy conversion is from zonal kinetic energy to eddy kinetic energy. The structure of the most unstable mode is such that the maximum amplitude is concentrated at about 150 mb and the amplitude at the lowest layers is negligibly small. Barotropic instability of the zonal flow at 150 mb seems to be the primary excitation mechanism for the most unstable mode which is also similar to the observed westward propagating waves in the upper troposphere during the monsoon season. The results further suggest that Barotropic-Baroclinic instability of the mean monsoon flow cannot explain the occurrence of monsoon depressions which have their maximum amplitude at the lower levels and are rarely detected at 200 mb.     

Orographic effects on the southwest monsoon: A review

An overview of the problem of orographic effects on the southwest monsoon using the contributions of all the available analytical and numerical models is attempted. A quasi-geostrophic model is applied to deduce the effect of the topographic complex on the Indian peninsula. This model suggests that the southward bending of the low-level isobars on the peninsula can be ascribed to the topographically-induced southward velocity. This southward velocity triggers a Rossby wave to the east of the peninsula which is manifested as a trough on the southern Bay of Bengal.     

地震波波谱分析与谱震级计算

为了分析和研究数字地震波信号的频谱分布特征,开发了地震波信号频谱分析软件(CALM P),并对辽宁岫岩地震和山西台网记录到的2001年至2003年的地震进行了分析处理,以期发现数字地震波信号的频谱分布规律。     

Indian summer monsoon and El Nino

The associations between strong to moderate El Nino events and the all-India and subdivisional summer monsoon rainfall is examined for the period 1871 to 1978. The significance of the association is assessed by applying the Chi-square test to the contingency table. The analysis indicates that during 22 El Nino years the Indian monsoon rainfall was mostly below normal over most parts of the country. However, the association between El Nino and deficient rainfall or drought is statistically significant over the subdivisions west of longitude 80°E and north of 12°N. During the five strong El Nino years—1877, 1899, 1911, 1918, and 1972—many areas of India suffered large rainfall deficiencies and severe droughts. There are four moderate El Nino years—1887, 1914, 1953, and 1976—when the suffering was marginal. The relationship between El Nino and the Indian monsoon rainfall is expected to be useful in forecasting large-scale anomalies in the monsoon over India.     

A note on the necessary condition for baroclinic instability of monsoon zonal current

Analytic expressions are derived for the minimum easterly and westerly jet strengths necessary for baroclinic instability, in terms of their half-widths and location. For this purpose the necessary condition for an internal jet is utilized and the jets and static stability are represented by simple mathematical functions. Dependency of the minimum jet strengths to their half-width and location are discussed.     

Role of barotropic mechanism in the development of a monsoon depression: A MONEX study

The role of barotropic processes in the development of a monsoon depression, formed on 5 July 1979 during MONEX observational period, is studied by considering it as a quasi-geostrophic divergent barotropic instability problem of zonal flow of 3 July 1979 at 700 mb level. Numerical solutions are obtained by initial value approach. The preferred wave has a wavelength of 2750 km, an e-folding time of 4.3 days, a period of 6.5 days and an eastward phase speed of 4.9 ms^–1. Structure of preferred wave is found to be in good agreement with the observed horizontal structure of the depression at 700 mb. Poleward momentum transports are found to predominate over equatorward transports.Parts of this paper were presented at the National Symposium on Early Results of MONEX-1979. 9–12 March 1981, in New Delhi, India.