Flattening Index of the Solar Corona and the Solar Cycle

The photometrical flattening index of the solar corona a+b is defined according to Ludendorff. In this paper we have investigated how the flattening index varies with respect to the phase of solar activity and the sunspot number. We have compiled 170 values of the flattening index using the data on 60 total solar eclipses from 1851 to 2010. We have found that the flattening index takes values from 0 to 0.4, and is anticorrelated with solar activity. The value of the flattening index at the beginning of solar cycle 24 was used as a precursor to forecast the amplitude of the cycle. It was found that the amplitude of solar cycle 24 will be about 95 in terms of the smoothed monthly sunspot numbers.     

Temperature of Solar Prominences Obtained with the Fast Imaging Solar Spectrograph on the 1.6 m New Solar Telescope at the Big Bear Solar Observatory

We observed solar prominences with the Fast Imaging Solar Spectrograph (FISS) at the Big Bear Solar Observatory on 30 June 2010 and 15 August 2011. To determine the temperature of the prominence material, we applied a nonlinear least-squares fitting of the radiative transfer model. From the Doppler broadening of the Hα and Ca ii lines, we determined the temperature and nonthermal velocity separately. The ranges of temperature and nonthermal velocity were 4000?–?20?000 K and 4?–?11 km?s^?1. We also found that the temperature varied much from point to point within one prominence.     

Element Abundances in Solar Energetic Particles and the Solar Corona

This is a study of abundances of the elements He, C, N, O, Ne, Mg, Si, S, Ar, Ca, and Fe in solar energetic particles (SEPs) in the 2?–?15 MeV?amu^?1 region measured on the Wind spacecraft during 54 large SEP events occurring between November 1994 and June 2012. The origin of most of the temporal and spatial variations in abundances of the heavier elements lies in rigidity-dependent scattering during transport of the particles away from the site of acceleration at shock waves driven out from the Sun by coronal mass ejections (CMEs). Variation in the abundance of Fe is correlated with the Fe spectral index, as expected from scattering theory but not previously noted. Clustering of Fe abundances during the “reservoir” period, late in SEP events, is also newly reported. Transport-induced enhancements in one region are balanced by depletions in another, thus, averaging over these variations produces SEP abundances that are energy independent, confirms previous SEP abundances in this energy region, and provides a credible measure of element abundances in the solar corona. These SEP-determined coronal abundances differ from those in the solar photosphere by a well-known function that depends upon the first ionization potential (FIP) or ionization time of the element.     

Fast Imaging Solar Spectrograph of the 1.6 Meter New Solar Telescope at Big Bear Solar Observatory

For high resolution spectral observations of the Sun – particularly its chromosphere, we have developed a dual-band echelle spectrograph named Fast Imaging Solar Spectrograph (FISS), and installed it in a vertical optical table in the Coudé Lab of the 1.6 meter New Solar Telescope at Big Bear Solar Observatory. This instrument can cover any part of the visible and near-infrared spectrum, but it usually records the Hα band and the Ca ii 8542 Å band simultaneously using two CCD cameras, producing data well suited for the study of the structure and dynamics of the chromosphere and filaments/prominences. The instrument does imaging of high quality using a fast scan of the slit across the field of view with the aid of adaptive optics. We describe its design, specifics, and performance as well as data processing     

Global Forces in Eruptive Solar Flares: The Lorentz Force Acting on the Solar Atmosphere and the Solar Interior

We compute the change in the Lorentz force integrated over the outer solar atmosphere implied by observed changes in vector magnetograms that occur during large, eruptive solar flares. This force perturbation should be balanced by an equal and opposite force perturbation acting on the solar photosphere and solar interior. The resulting expression for the estimated force change in the solar interior generalizes the earlier expression presented by Hudson, Fisher, and Welsch (Astron. Soc. Pac. CS-383, 221, 2008), providing horizontal as well as vertical force components, and provides a more accurate result for the vertical component of the perturbed force. We show that magnetic eruptions should result in the magnetic field at the photosphere becoming more horizontal, and hence should result in a downward (toward the solar interior) force change acting on the photosphere and solar interior, as recently argued from an analysis of magnetogram data by Wang and Liu (Astrophys. J. Lett. 716, L195, 2010). We suggest the existence of an observational relationship between the force change computed from changes in the vector magnetograms, the outward momentum carried by the ejecta from the flare, and the properties of the helioseismic disturbance driven by the downward force change. We use the impulse driven by the Lorentz-force change in the outer solar atmosphere to derive an upper limit to the mass of erupting plasma that can escape from the Sun. Finally, we compare the expected Lorentz-force change at the photosphere with simple estimates from flare-driven gasdynamic disturbances and from an estimate of the perturbed pressure from radiative backwarming of the photosphere in flaring conditions.     

Intermittency of the Solar Magnetic Field and Solar Magnetic Activity Cycle

Small-scale solar magnetic fields demonstrate features of fractal intermittent behavior, which requires quantification. For this purpose we investigate how the observational estimate of the solar magnetic flux density \(B\) depends on resolution \(D\) in order to obtain the scaling \(\ln B_{D} = - k \ln D +a\) in a reasonably wide range. The quantity \(k\) demonstrates cyclic variations typical of a solar activity cycle. In addition, \(k\) depends on the magnetic flux density, i.e. the ratio of the magnetic flux to the area over which the flux is calculated, at a given instant. The quantity \(a\) demonstrates some cyclic variation, but it is much weaker than in the case of \(k\). The scaling obtained generalizes previous scalings found for the particular cycle phases. The scaling is typical of fractal structures. In our opinion, the results obtained trace small-scale action in the solar convective zone and its coexistence with the conventional large-scale solar dynamo based on differential rotation and mirror-asymmetric convection.     

太阳活动与太阳自转速率变化关系的分析

研究发现,太阳自转速率的变化与太阳活动之间存在一定的联系,但是不同学者的研究结论存在着矛盾:有的认为两者为正相关,而有的却认为是负相关.究竟两者之间是什么关系,需要做进一步深入的分析.利用EEMD (Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition)等方法对太阳自转速率和太阳黑子数据序列进行相关关系以及相位关系的计算和分析,以探讨太阳自转速率变化与太阳活动之间的关系.研究发现:两者的长期趋势项分量呈显著负相关;在11 yr左右周期分量上,观测到的太阳自转速率滞后太阳黑子的变化约2 yr时,呈显著负相关关系,超前3 yr时呈现次显著的正相关;对太阳活动第12–23周各周内部太阳黑子与太阳自转速率的相关分析表明,两者的关系比较复杂,但负相关关系更为显著.这为进一步理解太阳活动变化与太阳自转速率变化之间的成因联系提供了新的依据.     

Solar Cycle Predictions based on Solar Activity at Different Solar Latitudes

Many methods of predictions of sunspot maximum number use data before or at the preceding sunspot minimum to correlate with the following sunspot maximum of the same cycle, which occurs a few years later. Kane and Trivedi (Solar Phys. 68, 135, 1980) found that correlations of R _z(max) (the maximum in the 12-month running means of sunspot number R _z) with R _z(min) (the minimum in the 12-month running means of sunspot number R _z) in the solar latitude belt 20° – 40°, particularly in the southern hemisphere, exceeded 0.6 and was still higher (0.86) for the narrower belt > 30° S. Recently, Javaraiah (Mon. Not. Roy. Astron. Soc. 377, L34, 2007) studied the relationship of sunspot areas at different solar latitudes and reported correlations 0.95 – 0.97 between minima and maxima of sunspot areas at low latitudes and sunspot maxima of the next cycle, and predictions could be made with an antecedence of more than 11 years. For the present study, we selected another parameter, namely, SGN, the sunspot group number (irrespective of their areas) and found that SGN(min) during a sunspot minimum year at latitudes > 30° S had a correlation +0.78±0.11 with the sunspot number R _z(max) of the same cycle. Also, the SGN during a sunspot minimum year in the latitude belt (10° – 30° N) had a correlation +0.87±0.07 with the sunspot number R _z(max) of the next cycle. We obtain an appropriate regression equation, from which our prediction for the coming cycle 24 is R _z(max )=129.7±16.3.     

Contribution to the Solar Mean Magnetic Field from Different Solar Regions

Seven-year-long seeing-free observations of solar magnetic fields with the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) were used to study the sources of the solar mean magnetic field, SMMF, defined as the net line-of-sight magnetic flux divided over the solar disk area. To evaluate the contribution of different regions to the SMMF, we separated all the pixels of each SDO/HMI magnetogram into three subsets: weak (\(B^{\mathrm{W}}\)), intermediate (\(B^{\mathrm{I}}\)), and strong (\(B^{\mathrm{S}}\)) fields. The \(B^{\mathrm{W}}\) component represents areas with magnetic flux densities below the chosen threshold; the \(B^{\mathrm{I}}\) component is mainly represented by network fields, remains of decayed active regions (ARs), and ephemeral regions. The \(B^{\mathrm{S}}\) component consists of magnetic elements in ARs. To derive the contribution of a subset to the total SMMF, the linear regression coefficients between the corresponding component and the SMMF were calculated. We found that i) when the threshold level of 30 Mx?cm^?2 is applied, the \(B^{\mathrm{I}}\) and \(B^{\mathrm{S}}\) components together contribute from 65% to 95% of the SMMF, while the fraction of the occupied area varies in a range of 2?–?6% of the disk area; ii) as the threshold magnitude is lowered to 6 Mx?cm^?2, the contribution from \(B^{\mathrm{I}}+B^{\mathrm{S}}\) grows to 98%, and the fraction of the occupied area reaches a value of about 40% of the solar disk. In summary, we found that regardless of the threshold level, only a small part of the solar disk area contributes to the SMMF. This means that the photospheric magnetic structure is an intermittent inherently porous medium, resembling a percolation cluster. These findings suggest that the long-standing concept that continuous vast unipolar areas on the solar surface are the source of the SMMF may need to be reconsidered.     

Probing the Fundamental Physics of the Solar Corona with Lunar Solar Occultation Observations

Imaging and spectroscopy of the solar corona, coupled with polarimetry, are the only tools available at present to capture signatures of physical processes responsible for coronal heating and solar wind acceleration within the first few solar radii above the solar limb. With the recent advent of improved detector technology and image processing techniques, broad-band white light and narrow-band multi-wavelength observations of coronal forbidden lines, made during total solar eclipses, have started to yield new views about the thermodynamic and magnetic properties of coronal structures. This paper outlines these unique capabilities, which until present, have been feasible primarily with observations during natural total solar eclipses. This work also draws attention to the exciting possibility of greatly increasing the frequency and duration of solar eclipse observations with Moon orbiting observatories utilizing lunar limb occultation of the solar disk for coronal measurements.     

第22和23太阳周太阳活动预测

本文首先分析指出第22太阳周前半周的太阳活动所具有的特点:(1)有最高的起始极小值;(2)上升速度快;(3)升段时间最短;(4)峰期长,可能有双峰;(5)个别时段活动水平极高.然后对第22周后半周的活动情况做了预计:在后半周将可能观测到大约2800个活动区,28000个耀斑,210个X级X射线爆发和大约80次太阳质子事件.最后,应用本文给出的太阳周参量关系式.预报第23周太阳黑子数月均平滑值的峰值为119,位于2001.6年.     

第23太阳活动周发展趋势预测

利用压强改正莫斯科中子监测值,对第２３太阳活动周的未来发展趋势作了预测,推测第 ２３周太阳活动和第 ２２周相当,约在 ２００１年达到 １５１± １６的极大月平均黑子相对数．     

Visualization of Distributed Solar Data and Metadata with the Solar Weather Browser

The Solar Weather Browser (SWB) is a standalone, open-source software tool designed to display solar images with context overlays. It was originally developed for the space-weather forecast activities of the Solar Influence Data analysis Center (SIDC) but it is more generally well suited to display the output of solar-feature recognition methods. The SWB is also useful in the context of distributed solar-image archives, where it could play the role of a quick-look viewer. The SWB allows the user to visually browse large solar data sets and investigate the solar activity for a given date. It has a client – server design that minimizes the bandwidth from the network to the user’s monitor. The server processes the data using the SolarSoft library and distributes them through a Web server to which the SWB client connects. The client is readily available for Linux, Mac OS X, and Windows at . We discuss the software technology embedded in the SWB as well as its use for solar physics and space weather.     

太阳黑子周极小年的统计性质——兼论第22周起始极小是否已经出现

探讨太阳周极小年的性质关系到确定极小值的位置及太阳周的长度,从而与太阳活动周的研究、太阳活动预报及水文、气象等地球物理现象的研究密切相关.当前对第22黑子周特征值的预报相当弥散,第22周起始极小是否已经出现的问题受到普遍关注.不同的太阳活动指标达到极值的时间不同,一般以太阳黑子数月均平滑最低值的位置来定义极小年.     

On the Performance of Multi-Instrument Solar Flare Observations During Solar Cycle 24

The current fleet of space-based solar observatories offers us a wealth of opportunities to study solar flares over a range of wavelengths. Significant advances in our understanding of flare physics often come from coordinated observations between multiple instruments. Consequently, considerable efforts have been, and continue to be, made to coordinate observations among instruments (e.g. through the Max Millennium Program of Solar Flare Research). However, there has been no study to date that quantifies how many flares have been observed by combinations of various instruments. Here we describe a technique that retrospectively searches archival databases for flares jointly observed by the Ramaty High Energy Solar Spectroscopic Imager (RHESSI), Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO)/EUV Variability Experiment (EVE – Multiple EUV Grating Spectrograph (MEGS)-A and -B, Hinode/(EUV Imaging Spectrometer, Solar Optical Telescope, and X-Ray Telescope), and Interface Region Imaging Spectrograph (IRIS). Out of the 6953 flares of GOES magnitude C1 or greater that we consider over the 6.5 years after the launch of SDO, 40 have been observed by 6 or more instruments simultaneously. Using each instrument’s individual rate of success in observing flares, we show that the numbers of flares co-observed by 3 or more instruments are higher than the number expected under the assumption that the instruments operated independently of one another. In particular, the number of flares observed by larger numbers of instruments is much higher than expected. Our study illustrates that these missions often acted in cooperation, or at least had aligned goals. We also provide details on an interactive widget (Solar Flare Finder), now available in SSWIDL, which allows a user to search for flaring events that have been observed by a chosen set of instruments. This provides access to a broader range of events in order to answer specific science questions. The difficulty in scheduling coordinated observations for solar-flare research is discussed with respect to instruments projected to begin operations during Solar Cycle 25, such as the Daniel K. Inouye Solar Telescope, Solar Orbiter, and Parker Solar Probe.