中国沿岸海平面上升及影响研究的现状与问题

对近年来中国沿岸相对海平面上升趋势及其影响研究的现状进行了总结，着重就目前研究中有关我国沿岸潮滩湿地与其他低地淹没以及加剧的海岸灾害估算等方面存在的难点和问题进行了分析与讨论。并在此基础上提出今后应加强相关基础资料积累、重视海平面上升与其他协同作用因素对研究对象的综合影响、海平面上升引起的海洋水文与海岸环境要素演变以及我国沿岸海岸信息系统研究等方面的建议。     

基于生态工程的海岸带全球变化适应性防护策略

在全球变化导致的海平面上升和灾害性气候等压力下,我国海岸带风暴潮、海岸侵蚀、地面沉降等灾害发生频率和强度正在增加,对海岸防护体系的需求日益提高。传统海岸防护工程维护成本高,更新困难,而且可能造成地面沉降、水质恶化、生态退化、渔业资源衰退等后果。基于生态工程的海岸防护提供了抵御海岸带灾害的新理念。修复和重建沙滩、红树林、沼泽湿地、珊瑚礁等海岸带生态系统,可以起到消浪、蓄积泥沙、抬升地面的作用,有效应对全球变化引发的灾害风险,形成更可持续的海岸防护体系。通过分析不同海岸防护技术的优势和限制,认为以生态工程为核心理念构建和管理我国海岸防护体系,才能起到保障社会经济发展和维持生态健康的最佳效果。     

The extent of saltwater intrusion in southern Baldwin County,Alabama

Sea level rise (SLR) as a result of global warming has an impact on the increasing inundation on the coastal area. Nowadays, Semarang coastal area in Indonesia is already subject to coastal hazard due to tidal inundation and land subsidence. The impact of the inundation is predicted to be even more severe with the scenario of sea level rise. This paper concentrates on the risk assessment to the population, land use, and monetary losses as a result of coastal inundation under enhanced sea level rise. This paper uses the scenario of the depth of inundation to generate coastal inundation model using GIS-Technology. Anticipatory issues including methodology development for hazard assessment would be necessary for Semarang coastal area, and therefore, geo-information technology can be considered as a useful tool to rapidly assess the impact of the coastal hazard and evaluate the economic losses.     

陆地表层水贮量变化对海平面上升贡献的综合评估

由于气候变暖和人为活动的加剧，大陆表面水贮量正在发生着显著的变化，这必将引起海平面的变化。然而，陆地表层水贮量的变化是非常复杂的。主要讨论了地下水、人工水库、天然湖泊和森林退化对海平面影响的主要研究结果，重新评估了这些因素对海平面贡献的程度，尤其是考虑了中国相关因子的作用。还就一些不确定的因素，如水库深层渗透水、土壤水贮量变化、灌溉蒸腾等对海平面的影响也进行了讨论。     

国际南极冰盖与海平面变化研究述评

海平面上升是全球变暖的主要后果之一。尽管有少数冰川学家认为,气候变暖并不能确保雪积累量的显著增加,同时可能出现冰流的突然变化,因此南极冰盖在未来海平面变化中的作用存在很大的不确定性。但近几十年来南极半岛气温的急剧上升,已使大量的冰架崩解。冰架崩解并不对海平面产生真正的影响,但反映出南极洲气候与冰川存在急剧变化的可能。     

Coastal processes and environmental hazards: the Buenos Aires (Argentina) and Venetian (Italy) littorals

The Buenos Aires (Argentina) and Venice (Italy) coastlands have experienced significant saltwater contamination of the phreatic aquifer, coastal erosion, hydrodynamic changes and relative sea level rise processes due to natural and man-induced factors. These factors expose coastal areas to morpho-hydro-geological hazards, such as soil desertification, frequency and degree of flooding, littoral erosion, and the silting of river mouths and channels. Man-made interventions and actions, such as beach mining, construction of coastal structures and exploitation of aquifers without an adequate knowledge of the hydrology setting and an adequate management program, worsen these natural hazards. Uncontrolled human activity induces environmental damage to the overall coastal plains. The coastal plains play an important role in the social/economic development of the two regions based on land use, such as agriculture, horticulture, breeding, and tourism, as well as industry. Results of investigations on saltwater contamination, sea level rise and morphological changes recently performed in these two coastal areas are presented here.     

Access to the coast and erosion control: use of wastes on local engineering works in the coast of Gaza City

 Investment in the coastal resources of Gaza City is vital to various developmental issues and projects. Access to the coast and coastal erosion represent two major geo-environmental problems to the city. This paper describes local engineering works developed by the municipality and local people to overcome such problems. A cliff of calcareous sandstone – Kurkar as it is locally known – (up to 18 m high), is located at a distance of 20–50 m from the water–land contact. People who need to reach the beach must cross this Kurkar cliff. The engineering works used to facilitate access to the beach are: old automobile tires, white waste skeletons (refrigerators) and construction waste, where long stairs were designed using these materials. Meanwhile the engineering works which were used as erosion control measures include: rock gabions, concrete wastes, construction waste, concrete walls and shallow excavations. Such practices are commonly used in third world countries and are characterized by inexpensive transportation and implementation costs. The performance of these methods was evaluated from an economic, environmental and safety point of view. Suggestions were made to improve the performance of these practices in the future. Received: 18 November 1998 · Accepted: 15 February 1999     

海岸带侵蚀灾害研究进展及思考

在当今全球海平面上升的背景下,海岸侵蚀灾害已严重威胁着海岸带生存和生活环境,逐渐成为各相关领域的一个热点研究课题。因此,在总结中国典型海岸段侵蚀灾害的基础上,深刻探讨国内外海岸带侵蚀研究现状,并就此提出存在的两个关键性问题。最后,指出今后应重点加强以下5个方面的研究: (1)海岸侵蚀与地质环境条件的相关关系; (2)海岸侵蚀分区特征与发育分布规律; (3)侵蚀海岸的变形破坏模式; (4)岩土体在各种侵蚀因子作用下力学特性变化; (5)海岸稳定性的评价机制。     

海平面上升的海岸形态响应研究方法与进展

海岸带是人口最稠密的地带,全世界几乎一半的人口生活在沿海地区[1](根据UNCEDDE的定义,以距海岸线150 km计)。受全球变化,尤其是21世纪海平面加速上升的影响,海岸将发生复杂的形态响应过程,包括海岸侵蚀、滩地淹没和湿地沉积平衡的调整等,从而危害人类的生存和发展,引起世界沿海各国政府和科学界的广泛关注。从海平面上升海岸响应历史记录研究、海岸均衡剖面研究和形态响应模拟研究三个方面概述了海平面上升海岸形态响应的国内外研究进展,并对各种研究方法的适用范围、优点及局限性进行了讨论。     

Evidence of regional subsidence and associated interior wetland loss induced by hydrocarbon production, Gulf Coast region, USA

Analysis of remote images, elevation surveys, stratigraphic cross-sections, and hydrocarbon production data demonstrates that extensive areas of wetland loss in the northern Gulf Coast region of the United States were associated with large-volume fluid production from mature petroleum fields. Interior wetland losses at many sites in coastal Louisiana and Texas are attributed largely to accelerated land subsidence and fault reactivation induced by decreased reservoir pressures as a result of rapid or prolonged extraction of gas, oil, and associated brines. Evidence that moderately-deep hydrocarbon production has induced land-surface subsidence and reactivated faults that intersect the surface include: (1) close temporal and spatial correlation of fluid production with surficial changes including rapid subsidence of wetland sediments near producing fields, (2) measurable offsets of shallow strata across the zones of wetland loss, (3) large reductions in subsurface pressures where subsidence rates are high, (4) coincidence of orientation and direction of displacement between surface fault traces and faults that bound the reservoirs, and (5) accelerated subsidence rates near producing fields compared to subsidence rates in surrounding areas or compared to geological rates of subsidence. Based on historical trends, subsidence rates in the Gulf Coast region near producing fields most likely will decrease in the future because most petroleum fields are nearly depleted. Alternatively, continued extraction of conventional energy resources as well as potential production of alternative energy resources (geopressured-geothermal fluids) in the Gulf Coast region could increase subsidence and land losses and also contribute to inundation of areas of higher elevation.     

铁路工程地质环境对气候变化的反应

本文论述了气候自然变化及其异常、对盐湖、黑海沿岸、里海西岸和贝阿铁路的工程地质条件，带来的盐溶、斜坡作用活化，海侵和路基热融变形等工程地质灾害的现实性和严重性。指出今后进行铁路工程地质勘测设计时，必须考虑未来气候自然变化的重要意义。     

Sea Level Rise and Its Risk Management

Sea level rise is among the most severe societal consequences of anthropogenic climate change. Significant advance has been achieved in recent years in the study of future sea level rise and its risk management practice: ①Sea level rise is considered as a kind of hazard,its future plausible scenarios and their probabilities are necessary to be predicted and estimated,and the upper limit with very low probability and high consequences should be emphasized. For this purpose,a complete probability distribution framework has been developed to predict the scenarios and probabilities of future sea level rise with Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) in recent years. ② For a high emissions scenario,it was found that Antarctic Ice Sheet might make a contribution to Global Mean Sea Level (GMSL) rise as high as 78150 cm (mean value 114 cm) by 2100. For the same scenario,the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report gave an Antarctic contribution of only -8+14 cm (mean value 4 cm). ③ Recent studies recommended a revised worst-case (Extreme) GMSL rise scenario of 2.5 m from previous 2.0 m by 2100. It is recognized that GMSL rise will not stop at 2100; rather,it will continue to rise for centuries afterwards,but the degree of uncertainty related to sea level rise will increase. ④ Approaches of combining the upper-bound scenario and a central estimate or mid-range scenario, Adaptation Pathways and robust decision-making are developed to provide a set of long-term planning envelope. These decision-making methods are used widely in coastal risk management related to future sea level rise. Sea level rise and its risk management need to enhance monitoring,analysis and simulation to predict the global,regional and local seal level rise scenarios and the probabilities with different time scales,reduce the estimate uncertainty, assess its upper limits, and enhance decision methods and their application under deep uncertain, in order to meet the needs of climate change adaptation planning,decision-making and long-term risk management in coastal regions.     

Land subsidence along the northeastern Texas Gulf coast: Effects of deep hydrocarbon production

The Texas Gulf of Mexico coast is experiencing high (5–11 mm/yr) rates of relative sea level (RSL) rise that are the sum of subsidence and eustatic sea level (ESL) rise. Even higher rates are associated with areas of groundwater pumping from confined aquifers. We investigate the possibility of deep petroleum production as a cause for the high regional rates of subsidence. The northeast Texas coast was chosen for the study because it has a high rate of RSL rise, very limited groundwater production, and a long history of petroleum production. We examine in detail the Big Hill and Fannett fields, for which adequate bottom hole pressure (BHP) and well log data are available. The hypothesis of deep petroleum production is tested in three ways. First, industry BHP tests show many of the fields are depressurized to far below hydrostatic pressures. Second, analysis of BHP data over time in the Big Hill and Fannett fields indicates that some Zones in these fields were below hydrostatic when production commenced. This indicates that depressurization from production in neighboring fields or zones within the same field is not limited to the production zone. Third, three models for subsidence (a general 1-D regional model, an intrareservoir model, and a reservoir bounding layer model), using reasonable hydrogeological parameters, predict subsidence within the inferred range of data. The latter two models use data from the Big Hill and Fannett fields. Additional verification of the hypothesis that deep petroleum production is causing or accelerating regional subsidence will require the collection and analysis of data on the subsurface hydrogeological parameters and detailed measurements of the spatial and temporal distribution of subsidence along the Texas Coast.     

Research Progress of Coastal Dunes Response to Storm

The major areas of world coastal dunes have been frequently attacked by storms. The storm, as a high energy influential factor for the formation and evolution of coastal dunes, is also one of the important research contents on the surf zone-beach-dune interaction. The research progress are reviewed from the following aspects: Coastal dune morphological response to storms, coastal dune sediments response to storms, mechanisms of coastal dunes in response to storms, and the research methods and techniques used in the research on coastal dunes to storms. Finally, open questions and future developments were suggested.     

An Inconvenient Truth: blurring the lines between science and science fiction

Al Gore’s movie An Inconvenient Truth gives a variety of unusually biased interpretations of the state of climate science and global warming theory. These cover a wide range of natural events and processes which could potentially be impacted by global warming, but which the movie misrepresents as clear examples of the human influence on climate. A few examples include the mixing up of cause and effect in his graphical portrayal of temperature and carbon dioxide variations over hundreds of thousands of years; the repeated depiction of ice calving from glaciers as a sign of global warming; the implication that Hurricane Katrina was the fault of humans; and the particularly extreme view that the Greenland ice sheet will melt, flooding coastal cities worldwide. Ultimately, all of these are related to the widespread perception that scientists have uniquely tied global warming to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. The real inconvenient truth is that science has no idea how much of recent warming is natural versus the result of human activities.     

Coastal flood management in Semarang,Indonesia

Semarang is one of the biggest cities in Indonesia and is nowadays suffering from coastal flooding. Land subsidences, high water tide, and inadequate structural measures play important roles in the coastal inundations. Structural and non-structural methods for controlling coastal flooding including dykes, drainage systems, pump stations, polder systems, coastal-land reclamations, coastal planning and management, public education, as well as the establishment of an institutional framework for disaster management have been implemented in the Semarang coastal area. Although some improvements have been made, the current flood management system has generally failed to address a wide range of coastal inundation problems. Some improvement actions have been proposed including stakeholders involvement on the disaster mitigation. For a long period coastal management, accelerated sea level rises due to global warming should also be taken into account.     

全球环境变化海岸易损性研究综述

全球变化海岸易损性评估是国际政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）敦促沿海各国应优先开展的一项工作。根据近年来有关海岸易损性的研究成果,可以认为海岸易损性系指海岸带自然、社会经济综合体对全球环境变化和海平面上升的不适应程度。通过阐述IPCC易损性评估的基本方法、内容和目标,指出了海岸易损性评估中存在的问题及改善的方法,最后,结合我国海岸带易损性评估的已有成果,分析了我国海岸易损性评估工作中存在的问题及今后的研究方向。     

Coastal Ecological Risk Assessment: Its Research Progress and Prospect

Coastal areas are located in marine-terrestrial interlaced zone. With their unique geographical positions, the coastal ecological risk assessment has both the complexity of regional ecological risk assessment and its own particularity. In recent years, due to the coastal economic development and the deterioration of ecological environment, coastal ecological risk has received more and more attention, but there are still lacking in further systematic study about the coastal ecological risk assessment. With the summary and analysis of the existing research results from home and abroad, based on land-ocean interaction plan and full consideration of the uniqueness, regionalism and complexity of the coastal zone environment, this paper made scientific conclusion on the definition of the coastal ecological risk assessment concept and its components from risk source, habitat and risk suffer-the three basic elements. Moreover, from risk source, risk suffer and comprehensive evaluation-the three aspects, it discussed in detail the related research topics, progress as well as main conclusions. Then, it analysed the characteristics and evaluation methods, and put forward the framework model of coastal ecological risk assessment. Finally, it analysed and proposed the existing deficiencies and future research direction, providing new ideas for future research on coastal ecological risk assessment.     

黄海西部沿岸流系特征分析及其对物质输运的影响

黄海西部沿岸是我国人类活动和海洋经济开发较为集中的地带,陆地和海洋相互作用较为强烈,其特殊的地形和所处的独特地理位置,使得该海域的环流复杂多变,沿岸海域各水团与陆架锋以及长江口东北部的锋面一起构成了黄海西部特有的环流体系和背景场,对该海域的物质输运和扩散、海水运动以及海洋生物地球化学过程产生影响,并制约着沿岸海域对污染...