Sensitivity of transversal apparent resistivity to the changes in electrical resistivity of the elements of a 2D geoelectrical structure

The sensitivity of transversal apparent resistivity to the changes in the electrical resistivity of elements of a two-dimensional (2D) geoelectrical structure is studied by numerical modeling. This sensitivity is found to have a series of specific features, due to which the monitoring of transversal apparent resistivity can serve as a helpful addition to the monitoring of longitudinal apparent resistivity to trace the dynamics of subsurface and shallow crustal elements of the medium. It is shown that the method previously suggested for the inversion of relative changes in apparent resistivity into relative changes in electrical resistivities of the elements of the geoelectrical structure is applicable to the transversal electrical resistivity.     

Transition from wavelets to ripples in a laboratory flume with a diverging channel

An experimental investigation on the initiation and development of bed forms on a bed of fine silica sand was conducted under alluvial flow conditions in a laboratory flume with a diverging channel. The main aims of the study were to assess： i） the steepness of bed forms in the transition stage of development; and ii） the threshold height of wavelets （ηt） that triggered the start of ripple development. Detailed bed profile measurements were carried out using an acoustic Doppler probe, traversed longitudinally over the sediment bed at various experimentation times. The bed form dimensions were extracted from such bed profile records and analysed for the wavelet, transition and equilibrium stages. It was found that the steepness of ripples in the transition and equilibrium stages were similar, confirming predictions of previous mathematical model simulations. A lognormal distribution fitted the wavelet length data. The wavelet threshold height was estimated as ηt ≈ 7 mm, or ηt≈ 80 in wall units. Such a height magnitude suggested that ripple development could be triggered by the wavelets reaching the outer flow zone of a turbulent boundary layer. The ηt value obtained corresponded generally to the intersection point between two predictive equations for bed form dimensions. A formulation was developed to predict ηt as a function of the sediment grain size, which was confirmed for the fine sand used in this study.     

Interpretation of slingram conductivity mapping in near-surface geophysics: using a single parameter fitting with 1D model1

Electrical conductivity mapping is a prerequisite tool for hydrogeological or environmental studies. Its interpretation still remains qualitative but advantages can be expected from a quantitative approach. However a full 3D interpretation is too laborious a task in comparison with the limited cost and time which are involved in the majority of such field studies. It is then of value to define the situations where lateral variations are sufficiently smooth for a 1D model to describe correctly the underlying features. For slingram conductivity measurements, criteria allowing an approximate 1D inversion are defined: these mainly consist of a limited rate of variation over three times the intercoil spacing. In geological contexts where the weathering has generated a conductive intermediate layer between the underlying sound rock and the soil, this processing can be applied to determine the thickness of the conductive layer from the apparent resistivity map when the other geoelectrical parameters are known. The examples presented illustrate this application.     

Erratum to: 3D Numerical Modeling of the Summit Lake Lava Flow,Yellowstone, USA

Izvestiya, Physics of the Solid Earth - An Erratum to this paper has been published: https://doi.org/10.1134/S1069351321120016     

The use of benthic indicators in Europe: from the Water Framework Directive to the Marine Strategy Framework Directive

The Water Framework Directive (WFD) and the Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD) are the European umbrella regulations for water systems. It is a challenge for the scientific community to translate the principles of these directives into realistic and accurate approaches. The aim of this paper, conducted by the Benthos Ecology Working Group of ICES, is to describe how the principles have been translated, which were the challenges and best way forward. We have tackled the following principles: the ecosystem-based approach, the development of benthic indicators, the definition of ‘pristine’ or sustainable conditions, the detection of pressures and the development of monitoring programs. We concluded that testing and integrating the different approaches was facilitated during the WFD process, which led to further insights and improvements, which the MSFD can rely upon. Expert involvement in the entire implementation process proved to be of vital importance.     

Microalgal dynamics in a shallow estuarine lake: Transition from drought to wet conditions

Shallow coastal lakes are under increasing pressure from climate change. Low rainfall and reduced run-off contributed to an unprecedented drought in Lake St. Lucia since 2002. Physico-chemical variables and microalgal biomass are analysed, tracking the transition from drought (2009) to wet conditions (2014). Despite low water levels and habitat loss due to desiccation, microalgal biomass remained high mainly due to cyanobacterial contribution. The system exhibited distinct spatio-temporal patterns in terms of salinity, water level, DIN, microalgal biomass and class composition associated with the drought, transition and wet climatic phases. Regime shifts were detected, coinciding with the end of the drought and the beginning of the wet phase. The St. Lucia ecosystem responds rapidly to changes in climatic phases while sustaining microalgal stocks; it may therefore be relatively resilient to extreme drought events.     

Comparing 1D and combined 1D/2D hydraulic simulations using high-resolution topographic data: a case study of the Koiliaris basin,Greece

The development of high spatial resolution digital elevation models takes place via the use of GeoEye-1 stereo-pair imagery, providing highly accurate geometrical representations of complex riverine systems. The combination of geographic information systems with hydraulic models facilitates the exploitation of satellite topographic information throughout the cross-section extraction process. One-dimensional HEC-RAS and combined 1D/2D HEC-RAS models are adjusted by making use of the resulting high-resolution input. Several hydraulic simulations are effectuated in order to test how significantly DEM resolution affects hydraulic modelling results, with regard also to the model dimensionality. The ability of the combined 1D/2D model, based mainly on the high-accuracy input data, provides an accurate estimate of the flood hazard area. Flood-prone areas could take advantage of high-accuracy results and facilitate the effective management of extreme events and sufficient decision making.     

1-D Theoretical Modeling for Site Effect Estimations in Thessaloniki: Comparison with Observations

—?We apply an algorithm based on the modal summation method to theoretically estimate the site effect at selected locations underlain by different geological formations within the city of Thessaloniki (Greece). Complete strong motion synthetics are constructed for all components of motion at each site, for a maximum frequency of 10?Hz. The anelastic, local 1-D velocity models are based on cross-hole data. Four point sources with different azimuths and distances from the city are used to compute the input signals. The theoretical amplification is estimated through spectral ratios of accelerograms obtained by the local 1-D over those obtained by the regional 1-D velocity model. The results from the numerical modeling are compared with those derived from experimental techniques, such as of Standard Spectral Ratio and Horizontal-to-Vertical Spectral Ratio, which had been applied to acceleration data recorded at the same sites. The comparison demonstrates that the theoretical amplifications based on known and simple subsurface geology can be used as a first-order estimate, while for cases of more complex geometries the use of at least 2-D modeling in site effects estimation is mandatory.     

A 2-D Sensitivity Study of the Dynamic Behavior of a Volcanic Hill in the Azores Islands: Comparison with 1-D and 3-D Models

—?A 2-D and a 3-D finite element representation using Drucker-Prager cap model is employed in the study to determine the seismic response of a volcanic hill located in one of the islands in the Azores Archipelago. In order to test the applicability of these models we used the motion recorded at the base of the hill during an aftershock of the July 9, 1998 earthquake and compared the numerical response with the record obtained at the top of the hill. Several comparisons and sensitivity analyses were made to identify the most important dynamic parameters influencing the response. Even though the match is not yet adequate for any one of the representations, especially in time domain, the 3-D model showed a good fitting in terms of Fourier Spectrum. Up to a PGA of 0.24?g the behavior of the hill is approximately linear, with higher amplifications going upwards along a vertical interior column; beyond this limit, there is a clear nonlinear behavior.     

Uncertainty in 1D Heat‐Flow Analysis to Estimate Groundwater Discharge to a Stream

Temperature measurements have been used by a variety of researchers to gain insight into groundwater discharge patterns. However, much of this research has reduced the problem to heat and fluid flow in one dimension for ease of analysis. This approach is seemingly at odds with the goal of determining spatial variability in specific discharge, which implies that the temperature field will vary in more than one dimension. However, it is unclear how important the resulting discrepancies are in the context of determining groundwater discharge to surface water bodies. In this study, the importance of these variations is examined by testing two popular one‐dimensional analytical solutions with stochastic models of heat and fluid flow in a two‐dimensional porous medium. For cases with low degrees of heterogeneity in hydraulic conductivity, acceptable results are possible for specific discharges between 10^?7 and 10^?5 m/s. However, conduction into areas with specific discharges less than 10^?7 m/s from adjacent areas can lead to significant errors. In some of these cases, the one‐dimensional solutions produced estimates of specific discharge of nearly 10^?6 m/s. This phenomenon is more likely in situations with greater degrees of heterogeneity.     

Kinematic dynamo action in a sphere: Effects of periodic time-dependent flows on solutions with axial dipole symmetry

Choosing a simple class of flows, with characteristics that may be present in the Earth's core, we study the ability to generate a magnetic field when the flow is permitted to oscillate periodically in time. The flow characteristics are parameterised by D, representing a differential rotation, M, a meridional circulation, and C, a component characterising convective rolls. The dynamo action of all solutions with fixed parameters (steady flows) is known from earlier studies. Dynamo action is sensitive to these flow parameters and fails spectacularly for much of the parameter space where magnetic flux is concentrated into small regions, leading to high diffusion. In addition, steady flows generate only steady or regularly reversing oscillatory fields and cannot therefore reproduce irregular geomagnetic-type reversal behaviour. Oscillations of the flow are introduced by varying the flow parameters in time, defining a closed orbit in the space ( D,?M ). When the frequency of the oscillation is small, the net growth rate of the magnetic field over one period approaches the average of the growth rates for steady flows along the orbit. At increased frequency time-dependence appears to smooth out flux concentrations, often enhancing dynamo action. Dynamo action can be impaired, however, when flux concentrations of opposite signs occur close together as smoothing destroys the flux by cancellation. It is possible to produce geomagnetic-type reversals by making the orbit stray into a region where the steady flows generate oscillatory fields. In this case, however, dynamo action was not found to be enhanced by the time-dependence. A novel approach is being taken to solve the time-dependent eigenvalue problem where, by combining Floquet theory with a matrix-free Krylov-subspace method, we can avoid large memory requirements for storing the matrix required by the standard approach.     

Modeling Low-frequency Magnetic-field Precursors to the Loma Prieta Earthquake with a Precursory Increase in Fault-zone Conductivity

—The 1989 M _s = 7.1 Loma Prieta earthquake was preceded for 12 days by what have been claimed as precursory ultra-low-frequency (ULF) magnetic noise anomalies ten times background, and by a very high peak up to 100 times background just 3 hours before the earthquake. We propose that these anomalous fields could have been due to the formation of a long thin highly-conductive region along the earthquake fault, which magnified the external electromagnetic waves incident on the earth’s surface. We use a simplified quantitative model, assuming a highly-conductive elliptic cylinder embedded in a layered resistivity structure, which we base on independent magnetotelluric measurements. The magnetic-field anomaly observed 3 hours before the main shock can be modeled by assuming an elliptic conductor extending from the surface to the hypocenter with a conductivity of 5 S · m^?1. Our computed anomaly matches the observed anomaly to within a deviation of 35% over an observed frequency range of over 2 orders of magnitude, over which the measured anomaly varies from only about twice background (at 5 Hz) to about 100 times background (at 0.01 Hz). In addition, other anomalies recorded up to 12 days before the earthquake, can be modeled in detail by varying only the size of the elliptic conductor.¶We show that such an increase in conductivity could be caused by a precursory reorganization of the geometry of fluid-filled porosity in the fault-zone, which we call a dilatant-conductive effect. The extreme observed magnetic anomalies can be modeled using the high fault-zone porosity (c. 10%) and fluid conductivity (equivalent to 2 M NaCl) implied by other workers’ magneto-telluric measurements, but without requiring the large-scale precursory fluid flow characteristic of other published models for the magnetic-field precursors.     

Sensitivity to open boundary forcing in a fine-resolution model of the Iberian shelf-slope region

A fine-resolution primitive equation numerical model is constructed for the Iberian continental shelf and slope region, with open boundaries to the north, south and west. The model is forced by climatological wind fields and relaxed at the surface to climatological temperature and salinity fields. A series of numerical experiments is conducted to investigate the influence of the open boundary conditions. The numerical results include coastal upwelling in summer and a poleward current in winter. The effects of advection of Mediterranean Water and eastern North Atlantic Central Water feature in the circulation. Qualitative comparisons are made with observations.     

From surface wave inversion to seismic site response prediction: Beyond the 1D approach

Surface wave methods consist of the extraction and inversion of the Rayleigh wave phase-velocity dispersion curve to recover the (usually 1D) shear-wave velocity profile. In the literature, uncertainty due to data error has not received much attention, but the discussion about uncertainty due to model error is even poorer. Even with an unrealistic noise-free dataset and an exact forward model, an inappropriate parameterization can generate solutions very far from the actual soil structure. In general, the model used for the dispersion curve interpretation is 1D. Hence, when the velocity distribution is laterally heterogeneous, model errors can have significant consequences on the reliability of the resulting shear-wave velocity distribution. From a poor velocity reconstruction, an unsatisfactory, and often dangerous site response analysis follows. In fact, shear wave measurements play a relevant role in seismic ground motion amplification estimation. In this paper, we discuss the possibility of processing the seismograms using a multi-offset phase analysis (MOPA), in order to derive soil elastic parameters for weak motion predictions. This technique allows the detection and location of the lateral discontinuities, and a better model parameterization. In fact, once the discontinuities are identified, we can split the profile into several, truly 1D, parts. The use of the standard 1D dispersion curve extraction and inversion for each side of the heterogeneity generates velocity profiles that we can put side by side to get correct 2D reconstructions of the shear-wave distributions. From 2D velocity reconstruction, we can calculate the site response that may be significantly different from the site response generated from a traditional 1D analysis of the same seismograms. In this work, we discuss the site responses of two synthetic examples with lateral heterogeneities. We show how misleading a 1D analysis may be if applied to a truly 2D velocity distribution, particularly in terms of site response prediction.     

Sensitivity of the surface temperature to changes in total solar irradiance calculated with the WRF model

The temperature sensitivity of the WRF model to changes in Total Solar Irradiance (TSI). The simulations were performed for a region centered over the North Atlantic Ocean, including portions of Eastern North America, Western Europe and Northwest Africa. Four simulations were run with different TSI values. Also, a fifth simulation was performed in which we varied the initial atmospheric conditions, in order to compare the effect on the temperature of both, changes in the TSI and initial atmospheric conditions. Comparing temperature monthly averages we found that changes in TSI and in the initial conditions have a measurable impact on temperature in the region of study. The sensitivity of the model using non-dimensional parameters was also estimated. The numerical experiments show some features that might allow to distinguish between the effects on the temperature due to changes in TSI from those caused by initial conditions. However, TSI changes are of the same order of magnitude than those of disturbances in the initial conditions. We also found that the mean monthly values of temperature over the full grid, did not present significant variations due to changes of either initial conditions or TSI.     

Efficient ensemble forecasting of marine ecology with clustered 1D models and statistical lateral exchange: application to the Red Sea

Forecasting the state of large marine ecosystems is important for many economic and public health applications. However, advanced three-dimensional (3D) ecosystem models, such as the European Regional Seas Ecosystem Model (ERSEM), are computationally expensive, especially when implemented within an ensemble data assimilation system requiring several parallel integrations. As an alternative to 3D ecological forecasting systems, we propose to implement a set of regional one-dimensional (1D) water-column ecological models that run at a fraction of the computational cost. The 1D model domains are determined using a Gaussian mixture model (GMM)-based clustering method and satellite chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) data. Regionally averaged Chl-a data is assimilated into the 1D models using the singular evolutive interpolated Kalman (SEIK) filter. To laterally exchange information between subregions and improve the forecasting skills, we introduce a new correction step to the assimilation scheme, in which we assimilate a statistical forecast of future Chl-a observations based on information from neighbouring regions. We apply this approach to the Red Sea and show that the assimilative 1D ecological models can forecast surface Chl-a concentration with high accuracy. The statistical assimilation step further improves the forecasting skill by as much as 50%. This general approach of clustering large marine areas and running several interacting 1D ecological models is very flexible. It allows many combinations of clustering, filtering and regression technics to be used and can be applied to build efficient forecasting systems in other large marine ecosystems.     

Snow cover and runoff modelling in a high mountain catchment with scarce data: effects of temperature and precipitation parameters

Snowmelt is an important source of runoff in high mountain catchments. Snowmelt modelling for alpine regions remains challenging with scarce gauges. This study simulates the snowmelt in the Karuxung River catchment in the south Tibetan Plateau using an altitude zone based temperature‐index model, calibrates the snow cover area and runoff simulation during 2003–2005 and validates the model performance via snow cover area and runoff simulation in 2006. In the snowmelt and runoff modelling, temperature and precipitation are the two most important inputs. Relevant parameters, such as critical snow fall temperature, temperature lapse rate and precipitation gradient, determine the form and amount of precipitation and distribution of temperature and precipitation in hydrological modelling of the sparsely gauged catchment. Sensitivity analyses show that accurate estimation of these parameters would greatly help in improving the snowmelt simulation accuracy, better describing the snow‐hydrological behaviours and dealing with the data scarcity at higher elevations. Specifically, correlation between the critical snow fall temperature and relative humidity and seasonal patterns of both the temperature lapse rate and the precipitation gradient should be considered in the modelling studies when precipitation form is not logged and meteorological observations are only available at low elevation. More accurate simulation of runoff involving snowmelt, glacier melt and rainfall runoff will improve our understanding of hydrological processes and help assess runoff impacts from a changing climate in high mountain catchments. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.