Verification of an ENSO-Based Long-Range Prediction of Anomalous Weather Conditions During the Vancouver 2010 Olympics and Paralympics

A brief review of the anomalous weather conditions during the Vancouver 2010 Winter Olympic and Paralympic Games and the efforts to predict these anomalies based on some preceding El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) signals are presented. It is shown that the Olympic Games were held under extraordinarily warm conditions in February 2010, with monthly mean temperature anomalies of +2.2 °C in Vancouver and +2.8 °C in Whistler, ranking respectively as the highest and the second highest in the past 30 years (1981–2010). The warm conditions continued, but became less anomalous, in March 2010 for the Paralympic Games. While the precipitation amounts in the area remained near normal through this winter, the lack of snow due to warm conditions created numerous media headlines and practical problems for the alpine competitions. A statistical model was developed on the premise that February and March temperatures in the Vancouver area could be predicted using an ENSO signal with considerable lead time. This model successfully predicted the warmer-than-normal, lower-snowfall conditions for the Vancouver 2010 Winter Olympics and Paralympics.     

Adaptive Blending of Model and Observations for Automated Short-Range Forecasting: Examples from the Vancouver 2010 Olympic and Paralympic Winter Games

An automated short-range forecasting system, adaptive blending of observations and model (ABOM), was tested in real time during the 2010 Vancouver Olympic and Paralympic Winter Games in British Columbia. Data at 1-min time resolution were available from a newly established, dense network of surface observation stations. Climatological data were not available at these new stations. This, combined with output from new high-resolution numerical models, provided a unique and exciting setting to test nowcasting systems in mountainous terrain during winter weather conditions. The ABOM method blends extrapolations in time of recent local observations with numerical weather predictions (NWP) model predictions to generate short-range point forecasts of surface variables out to 6 h. The relative weights of the model forecast and the observation extrapolation are based on performance over recent history. The average performance of ABOM nowcasts during February and March 2010 was evaluated using standard scores and thresholds important for Olympic events. Significant improvements over the model forecasts alone were obtained for continuous variables such as temperature, relative humidity and wind speed. The small improvements to forecasts of variables such as visibility and ceiling, subject to discontinuous changes, are attributed to the persistence component of ABOM.     

Science of Nowcasting Olympic Weather for Vancouver 2010 (SNOW-V10): a World Weather Research Programme Project

A World Weather Research Programme (WWRP) project entitled the Science of Nowcasting Olympic Weather for Vancouver 2010 (SNOW-V10) was developed to be associated with the Vancouver 2010 Olympic and Paralympic Winter Games conducted between 12 February and 21 March 2010. The SNOW-V10 international team augmented the instrumentation associated with the Winter Games and several new numerical weather forecasting and nowcasting models were added. Both the additional observational and model data were available to the forecasters in real time. This was an excellent opportunity to demonstrate existing capability in nowcasting and to develop better techniques for short term (0–6 h) nowcasts of winter weather in complex terrain. Better techniques to forecast visibility, low cloud, wind gusts, precipitation rate and type were evaluated. The weather during the games was exceptionally variable with many periods of low visibility, low ceilings and precipitation in the form of both snow and rain. The data collected should improve our understanding of many physical phenomena such as the diabatic effects due to melting snow, wind flow around and over terrain, diurnal flow reversal in valleys associated with daytime heating, and precipitation reductions and increases due to local terrain. Many studies related to these phenomena are described in the Special Issue on SNOW-V10 for which this paper was written. Numerical weather prediction and nowcast models have been evaluated against the unique observational data set now available. It is anticipated that the data set and the knowledge learned as a result of SNOW-V10 will become a resource for other World Meteorological Organization member states who are interested in improving forecasts of winter weather.     

The Impact of Weather Forecasts of Various Lead Times on Snowmaking Decisions Made for the 2010 Vancouver Olympic Winter Games

The Vancouver 2010 Winter Olympics were held from 12 to 28 February 2010, and the Paralympic events followed 2 weeks later. During the Games, the weather posed a grave threat to the viability of one venue and created significant complications for the event schedule at others. Forecasts of weather with lead times ranging from minutes to days helped organizers minimize disruptions to sporting events and helped ensure all medal events were successfully completed. Of comparable importance, however, were the scenarios and forecasts of probable weather for the winter in advance of the Games. Forecasts of mild conditions at the time of the Games helped the Games' organizers mitigate what would have been very serious potential consequences for at least one venue. Snowmaking was one strategy employed well in advance of the Games to prepare for the expected conditions. This short study will focus on how operational decisions were made by the Games' organizers on the basis of both climatological and snowmaking forecasts during the pre-Games winter. An attempt will be made to quantify, economically, the value of some of the snowmaking forecasts made for the Games' operators. The results obtained indicate that although the economic value of the snowmaking forecast was difficult to determine, the Games' organizers valued the forecast information greatly. This suggests that further development of probabilistic forecasts for applications like pre-Games snowmaking would be worthwhile.     

A New Integrated Weighted Model in SNOW-V10: Verification of Categorical Variables

This paper presents the verification results for nowcasts of seven categorical variables from an integrated weighted model (INTW) and the underlying numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. Nowcasting, or short range forecasting (0–6 h), over complex terrain with sufficient accuracy is highly desirable but a very challenging task. A weighting, evaluation, bias correction and integration system (WEBIS) for generating nowcasts by integrating NWP forecasts and high frequency observations was used during the Vancouver 2010 Olympic and Paralympic Winter Games as part of the Science of Nowcasting Olympic Weather for Vancouver 2010 (SNOW-V10) project. Forecast data from Canadian high-resolution deterministic NWP system with three nested grids (at 15-, 2.5- and 1-km horizontal grid-spacing) were selected as background gridded data for generating the integrated nowcasts. Seven forecast variables of temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, wind gust, visibility, ceiling and precipitation rate are treated as categorical variables for verifying the integrated weighted forecasts. By analyzing the verification of forecasts from INTW and the NWP models among 15 sites, the integrated weighted model was found to produce more accurate forecasts for the 7 selected forecast variables, regardless of location. This is based on the multi-categorical Heidke skill scores for the test period 12 February to 21 March 2010.     

An Experimental High-Resolution Forecast System During the Vancouver 2010 Winter Olympic and Paralympic Games

Environment Canada ran an experimental numerical weather prediction (NWP) system during the Vancouver 2010 Winter Olympic and Paralympic Games, consisting of nested high-resolution (down to 1-km horizontal grid-spacing) configurations of the GEM–LAM model, with improved geophysical fields, cloud microphysics and radiative transfer schemes, and several new diagnostic products such as density of falling snow, visibility, and peak wind gust strength. The performance of this experimental NWP system has been evaluated in these winter conditions over complex terrain using the enhanced mesoscale observing network in place during the Olympics. As compared to the forecasts from the operational regional 15-km GEM model, objective verification generally indicated significant added value of the higher-resolution models for near-surface meteorological variables (wind speed, air temperature, and dewpoint temperature) with the 1-km model providing the best forecast accuracy. Appreciable errors were noted in all models for the forecasts of wind direction and humidity near the surface. Subjective assessment of several cases also indicated that the experimental Olympic system was skillful at forecasting meteorological phenomena at high-resolution, both spatially and temporally, and provided enhanced guidance to the Olympic forecasters in terms of better timing of precipitation phase change, squall line passage, wind flow channeling, and visibility reduction due to fog and snow.     

Mid-Mountain Clouds at Whistler During the Vancouver 2010 Winter Olympics and Paralympics

A comprehensive study of mid-mountain clouds and their impacts on the Vancouver 2010 Winter Olympics and Paralympics is presented. Mid-mountain clouds were frequently present on the Whistler alpine venue, as identified in an extensive archive of webcam images over a 45-day period from February 5 to March 21, 2010. These clouds posed serious forecast challenges and had significant impacts on some Olympic and Paralympic alpine skiing competitions. Under fair weather conditions, a diurnal upslope (anabatic) flow can work in concert with a diurnal temperature inversion aloft to produce a localized phenomenon known as “Harvey’s Cloud” at Whistler. Two detailed case studies in this paper suggest that mid-mountain clouds can also develop in the area as a result of a moist valley flow interacting with a downslope flow descending from the mountaintop. A southerly inflow through the Sea-to-Sky corridor can be channeled by the local topography into a westerly upslope flow toward Whistler Mountain, resulting in orographic clouds on the alpine venue. Under favorable circumstances, these clouds are trapped to the mid-mountain zone by the leeward subsidence of an elevated southerly flow. The presence of the downslope subsidence was manifested by a distinguished dry layer observed on the top of the mid-mountain clouds in both cases. It is the subsidence-induced adiabatic warming that imposes a strong buoyant suppression to trap the mid-mountain cloud. On the other hand, the subsidence-induced dry layer has the potential to trigger evaporative instability to periodically breakup the mid-mountain cloud.     

Response of phenological events to climate warming in the southern and south-eastern regions of Romania

The analysis of phenological changes in vegetation is essential for the assessment of the response and adaptation of ecosystems/agro-ecosystems to climate change. This study analyses spatial and temporal changes in phenological events (phenophases) and in the climatic growing season in southern and south-eastern Romania, based on mean monthly temperature values recorded between 1961 and 2010 at 24 weather stations, spread out uniformly in the study area. By using the histophenogram method for extracting the mean phenophases length (eight in total, i.e. growing season onset, budding–leafing, flowering, fruiting, maturing, dissemination, start of leaf loss and end of leaf loss) and that of the overall growing season, this paper aims to analyse current phenological changes (in three periods, 1991–2000, 2001–2010 and 1991–2010) in relation to 1961–1990, which is the reference interval in various global climatic studies. Following the analysis of the theoretical phenology length, based on the temperature thresholds (between 5 and 25 °C) that differentiate biological cycles of vegetation, results showed an overall increase in phenological activity (especially in the past decade, 2001–2010), except for two phenophases (fruiting and dissemination), for which largely dominant length decreases were identified. Quantitatively, increases (and null changes, in a few cases) in phenological length generally range between 0–5 days/0–10% (e.g. in the budding–leafing phenophase) and 11–15 days/10.1–20% (maturing), considering the absolute changes or percentages in the three periods, compared to the reference interval 1961–1990. For the most part, the current decrease in the fruiting and dissemination phenophases falls in the interval ?1 to ?5 days/?10.1 to ?20%, compared to the reference period. At the same time, it was noticed that the entire growing season has been expanding, especially in the past decade, when numerous increase instances of up to 15 days were recorded, corresponding to a dominant interval of 0–10% from the period 1961–1990. The results can be particularly useful for adapting the different types of crops to future climate changes, considering that the study area has a high agro-ecological importance.     

The influence of a season of extreme wet weather events on exposure of the World Heritage Area Great Barrier Reef to pesticides

The 2010-2011 wet season was one of extreme weather for the State of Queensland, Australia. Major rivers adjacent to the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) were discharging at rates 1.5 to >3 times higher than their long term median. Exposure to photosystem II herbicides has been routinely monitored over a period of up to 5 years at 12 inshore GBR sites. The influence of this wet season on exposure to photosystem II herbicides was examined in the context of this long-term monitoring record and during flood plume events in specific regions. Median exposures expressed as diuron equivalent concentration were an average factor of 2.3 times higher but mostly not significantly different (p<0.05) to the median for the long-term monitoring record. The herbicides metolachlor and tebuthiuron were frequently detected in flood plume waters at concentrations that reached or exceeded relevant water quality guidelines (by up to 4.5 times).     

The 2010 Chilean Tsunami Off the West Coast of Canada and the Northwest Coast of the United States

The major (M _w = 8.8) Chilean earthquake of 27 February 2010 generated a trans-oceanic tsunami that was observed throughout the Pacific Ocean. Waves associated with this event had features similar to those of the 1960 tsunami generated in the same region by the Great (M _w = 9.5) 1960 Chilean Earthquake. Both tsunamis were clearly observed on the coast of British Columbia. The 1960 tsunami was measured by 17 analog pen-and-paper tide gauges, while the 2010 tsunami was measured by 11 modern digital coastal tide gauges, four NEPTUNE-Canada bottom pressure recorders located offshore from southern Vancouver Island, and two nearby open-ocean DART stations. The 2010 records were augmented by data from seven NOAA tide gauges on the coast of Washington State. This study examines the principal characteristics of the waves from the 2010 event (height, period, duration, and arrival and travel times) and compares these properties for the west coast of Canada with corresponding properties of the 1960 tsunami. Results show that the 2010 waves were approximately 3.5 times smaller than the 1960 waves and reached the British Columbia coast 1 h earlier. The maximum 2010 wave heights were observed at Port Alberni (98.4 cm) and Winter Harbour (68.3 cm); the observed periods ranged from 12 min at Port Hardy to 110–120 min at Prince Rupert and Port Alberni and 150 min at Bamfield. The open-ocean records had maximum wave heights of 6–11 cm and typical periods of 7 and 15 min. Coastal and open-ocean tsunami records revealed persistent oscillations that “rang” for 3–4 days. Tsunami energy occupied a broad band of periods from 3 to 300 min. Estimation of the inverse celerity vectors from cross-correlation analysis of the deep-sea tsunami records shows that the tsunami waves underwent refraction as they approached the coast of Vancouver Island with the direction of the incoming waves changing from an initial direction of 340° True to a direction of 15° True for the second train of waves that arrived 7 h later after possible reflection from the Marquesas and Hawaiian islands.     

Energy fluxes and melt rate of a seasonal snow cover in the Moroccan High Atlas

ABSTRACT

In this study, we used an energy balance model and two simple methods based on readily available data to identify the processes driving the point-scale energy and mass balance of the snowpack. Data were provided from an experimental site located at 3200 m. All models were evaluated by comparing observed and modelled snow water equivalents. Performances are variable from one season to the next and the energy balance model gives better results (mean of root mean square error, RMSE = 25 mm and r² = 0.90) than the two simplified approaches (mean of RMSE = 54 mm and r² = 0.70). There are significant amounts of snow sublimation but they are highly variable from season to season, depending on wind conditions (between 7 and 20% of the total). While the main source of energy for melting is net radiation, the amount of heat brought by sensible heat flux is significant for two of the most windy snow seasons.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz Associate editor not assigned     

Roundhouse (RND) Mountain Top Research Site: Measurements and Uncertainties for Winter Alpine Weather Conditions

The objective of this work is to better understand and summarize the mountain meteorological observations collected during the Science of Nowcasting Winter Weather for the Vancouver 2010 Olympics and Paralympics (SNOW-V10) project that was supported by the Fog Remote Sensing and Modeling (FRAM) project. The Roundhouse (RND) meteorological station was located 1,856 m above sea level that is subject to the winter extreme weather conditions. Below this site, there were three additional observation sites at 1,640, 1,320, and 774 m. These four stations provided some or all the following measurements at 1 min resolution: precipitation rate (PR) and amount, cloud/fog microphysics, 3D wind speed (horizontal wind speed, U _h; vertical air velocity, w _a), visibility (Vis), infrared (IR) and shortwave (SW) radiative fluxes, temperature (T) and relative humidity with respect to water (RH_w), and aerosol observations. In this work, comparisons are made to assess the uncertainties and variability for the measurements of Vis, RH_w, T, PR, and wind for various winter weather conditions. The ground-based cloud imaging probe (GCIP) measurements of snow particles using a profiling microwave radiometer (PMWR) data have also been shown to assess the icing conditions. Overall, the conclusions suggest that uncertainties in the measurements of Vis, PR, T, and RH can be as large as 50, >60, 50, and >20 %, respectively, and these numbers may increase depending on U _h, T, Vis, and PR magnitude. Variability of observations along the Whistler Mountain slope (~500 m) suggested that to verify the models, model space resolution should be better than 100 m and time scales better than 1 min. It is also concluded that differences between observed and model based parameters are strongly related to a model’s capability of accurate prediction of liquid water content (LWC), PR, and RH_w over complex topography.     

A New Integrated Weighted Model in SNOW-V10: Verification of Continuous Variables

This paper presents the verification results of nowcasts of four continuous variables generated from an integrated weighted model and underlying Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models. Real-time monitoring of fast changing weather conditions and the provision of short term forecasts, or nowcasts, in complex terrain within coastal regions is challenging to do with sufficient accuracy. A recently developed weighting, evaluation, bias correction and integration system was used in the Science of Nowcasting Olympic Weather for Vancouver 2010 project to generate integrated weighted forecasts (INTW) out to 6 h. INTW forecasts were generated with in situ observation data and background gridded forecasting data from Canadian high-resolution deterministic NWP system with three nested grids at 15-, 2.5- and 1-km horizontal grid-spacing configurations. In this paper, the four variables of temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and wind gust are treated as continuous variables for verifying the INTW forecasts. Fifteen sites were selected for the comparison of the model performances. The results of the study show that integrating surface observation data with the NWP forecasts produce better statistical scores than using either the NWP forecasts or an objective analysis of observed data alone. Overall, integrated observation and NWP forecasts improved forecast accuracy for the four continuous variables. The mean absolute errors from the INTW forecasts for the entire test period (12 February to 21 March 2010) are smaller than those from NWP forecasts with three configurations. The INTW is the best and most consistent performer among all models regardless of location and variable analyzed.     

Nowcasting with INCA During SNOW-V10

A Central-European nowcasting system which has been developed for use in mountainous terrain is tested in the Whistler/Vancouver area as part of the SNOW-V10 experiment. The integrated nowcasting through comprehensive analysis system provides hourly updated gridded forecasts of temperature, humidity, and wind, as well as precipitation forecasts which are updated every 15 min. It is based on numerical weather prediction (NWP) output and real-time surface weather station and radar data. Verification of temperature, relative humidity, and wind against surface stations shows that forecast errors are significantly reduced in the nowcasting range compared to those of the driving NWP model. The main contribution to the improvement comes from the implicit bias correction due to use of the latest observations. Relative humidity shows the longest lasting effect, with >50 % reduction of mean absolute error up to +4 h. For temperature and wind speed this percentage is reached after +2 and +3 h, respectively. Two cases of precipitation nowcasting are discussed and verified qualitatively.     

Evolution of Vertical Moist Thermodynamic Structure Associated with the Indian Summer Monsoon 2010 in a Regional Climate Model

The 2010 boreal summer marked a worldwide abnormal climate. An unprecedented heat wave struck East Asia in July and August 2010. In addition to this, the tropical Indian Ocean was abnormally warm during the summer of 2010. Several heavy rainfall events and associated floods were also reported in the Indian monsoon region. During the season, the monsoon trough (an east–west elongated area of low pressure) was mostly located south of its normal position and monsoon low pressure systems moved south of their normal tracks. This resulted in an uneven spatial distribution with above-normal rainfall over peninsular and Northwest India, and deficient rainfall over central and northeastern parts of India, thus prediction (and simulation) of such anomalous climatic summer season is important. In this context, evolution of vertical moist thermodynamic structure associated with Indian summer monsoon 2010 is studied using regional climate model, reanalysis and satellite observations. This synergised approach is the first of its kind to the best of our knowledge. The model-simulated fields (pressure, temperature, winds and precipitation) are comparable with the respective in situ and reanalysis fields, both in intensity and geographical distribution. The correlation coefficient between model and observed precipitation is 0.5 and the root-mean-square error (RMSE) is 4.8 mm day^?1. Inter-comparison of model-simulated fields with satellite observations reveals that the midtropospheric temperature [Water vapour mixing ratio (WVMR)] has RMSE of 0.5 K (1.6 g kg^?1), whereas the surface temperature (WVMR) has RMSE of 3.4 K (2.2 g kg^?1). Similarly, temporal evolution of vertical structure of temperature with rainfall over central Indian region reveals that the baroclinic nature of monsoon is simulated by the model. The midtropospheric warming associated with rainfall is captured by the model, whereas the model failed to capture the surface response to high and low rainfall events. The model has strong water vapour loading in the whole troposphere, but weaker coherent response with rainfall compared to observations. Thus, strong water vapour loading and overestimation of rainfall are reported in the model. This study put forward that the discrepancy in the model-simulated structure may be reduced by assimilation of satellite observations.     

FTS (Fog To Snow) Conversion Process During the SNOW-V10 Project

The objective of this work is to understand how winter fog which occurred on Whistler Mountain on 3–4 March 2010 developed into a snow event by the means of the FTS (Fog To Snow) process. This event was documented using data collected during the Science of Nowcasting Winter Weather for Vancouver 2010 (SNOW-V10) project that was supported by the Fog Remote Sensing and Modelling (FRAM) project. The FTS resulted in a snow event at about 1,850?m altitude where the RND (Roundhouse) meteorological station was located. For both days, there was no large scale system that affected local fog formation and its development into snow. Patchy fog occurred in the early hours of both days and was based below 1,500?m. Clear skies at night likely resulted in cooling, the valley temperature (T) was about ?1°C in the early morning, and snow was on the ground. Winds were relatively calm (<1?m?s^?1). At the RND site, T was about ?3°C. Weather at RND was clear and sunny till noon. When fog moved over the mountain peak/near RND, light snow started and lasted for about 4–5?h and was not detected by precipitation sensors except the Ground Cloud Imaging Probe (GCIP) and Laser Precipitation Sensor (LPM). In this work, the FTS process is conceptually summarized. Because clear weather conditions over the high mountain tops can become hazardous with low visibilities and significant snow amounts (<1.0?mm?h^?1), such events are important and need to be predicted.     

Seismic hazard map of the Middle East

The collaborative project Earthquake Model of the Middle East (EMME, 2010–2015) brought together scientists and engineers from the leading research institutions in the region and delivered state-of-the-art seismic hazard assessment covering Afghanistan, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Cyprus, Georgia, Iran, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, Palestine, Pakistan, Syria and Turkey. Their efforts have been materialized in the first homogenized seismic hazard model comprising earthquake catalogues, mapped active faults, strong motions databank, ground motion models and the estimated ground motion values for various intensity measure types and relevant return periods (e.g. 475–5000 years). The reference seismic hazard map of the Middle East, depicts the mean values of peak ground acceleration with a 10% chance of exceedance in 50 years, corresponding to a mean return period of 475 years. A full resolution poster is provided with this contribution.     

Rehabilitation of Saline Wetland, Olympics 2000 Site, Sydney (Australia)—II: Saltmarsh Transplantation Trials and Application

The New South Wales Olympic Co-ordination Authority, which is responsible for the redevelopment of the site for the Olympic Games 2000, Sydney, is committed to the rehabilitation of the remnant ecosystems remaining on the site. This paper describes a 3-year saltmarsh transplantation project, and resulting management approaches for the rehabilitation of other saline wetland areas on the site. Two series of cuttings (spring and autumn) were made, including three dominant species and three species rare in Sydney. It was found that all the species could be propagated without difficulty, but field survival and growth were much higher for the spring series than the autumn one. Measurement was also made of the colonisation of mangrove and saltmarsh species that occurred at the site over the course of the trials. New understandings of estuarine wetland colonisation have emerged, and the information has been used to develop methods of transplantation for other parts of the Olympic site, and to define management needs for monitoring success.     

北京市朝阳区大气降尘磁学特征及对空气污染物浓度的指示

应用环境磁学方法研究了2008年奥运会前后北京市朝阳区大气降尘及对照点表土样品的磁学特征.结果表明,所有样品中载磁矿物主要为低矫顽力的亚铁磁性矿物(主要为磁铁矿).但大气降尘样品的磁性颗粒粒度较表土偏粗;磁性矿物含量高于表土样品,大气降尘除来自于自然源外,更多为来自于人为因素的结果.大气降尘磁化率与空气污染物浓度随时间...