The Stogovce landslide in SW Slovenia triggered during the September 2010 extreme rainfall event

From September 16 to September 20, 2010, a cold weather front went across Slovenia. A heavy 4-day rainfall totaling between 300 and 520 mm caused large floods and triggered numerous rainfall-induced landslides. The damage due to the floods and landslides is estimated over 250 million Euros. One of the largest landslides covering the area of approximately 15 ha was triggered on flysch bedrock, just below a limestone overthrust zone. The sliding material properties, the inclinations of the slope, and the water catchment area indicate that the landslide may transform into a fast moving debris flow. The necessary protective measures were taken to protect inhabitants and the infrastructure against the disaster. The Stogovce landslide is one of the numerous rainfall-induced landslides that have occurred in Slovenia on flysch bedrock in the last 10 years. It proves that landslide risk on flysch territory is increasing. Special program of monitoring and protective measures will have to be developed in near future to protect densely populated areas against landslides as a consequence of weather extremes.     

Landslide-dam paleolakes in the Central Pyrenees,Upper Gállego River Valley,NE Spain: timing and relationship with deglaciation

The production of a cartographic landslide inventory in the glaciated headwaters of the upper Gállego River, Axial Zone of the Spanish Pyrenees, revealed several paleolakes. These relict lake basins are related to the blockage of drainages by postglacial earthflows and slides, mainly developed on Paleozoic slates. The paleolakes are recorded either by non-dissected infilled basins or by hanging and incised lacustrine terraces that persisted for thousands of years. The development of lakes upstream of landslides, was favored, despite their erodibility, by high-displacement rates and the occurrence of paired landslides on both sides of the valley. Radiocarbon and single-grain optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) ages obtained on the lake sediments range between 41.5?±?3.9 ka and 15.1?±?0.3 ka. These chronologies indicate prolonged landslide activity long after the early deglaciation in the upper Gállego River Valley. The landslide-lake dating results support the interpretation that the regional maximum ice extent (MIE) in the Pyrenees occurred during the marine isotope stage 4 (MIS 4), long before the global Last Glacial Maximum (LGM).     

A geotechnical investigation of the retrogressive Yaka Landslide and the debris flow threatening the town of Yaka (Isparta,SW Turkey)

In this study the factors affecting the retrogressive Yaka Landslide, its mechanism and the hazard of debris flow on the town of Yaka are investigated. In the landslide area, the first landslide was small and occurred in March 2006 on the lower part of the Alaard?ç Slope near the Gelendost District town of Yaka (Isparta, SW Turkey). The second, the Yaka Landslide, was large and occurred on 19 February 2007 in the soil-like marl on the central part of Alaard?ç Slope. The geometry of the failure surface was circular and the depth of the failure surface was about 3 m. Following the landslide, a 85,800 m³ of displaced material transformed to a debris flow. Then, the debris flow moved down the Eglence Valley, traveling a total distance of about 750 m. The town of Yaka is located 1,600 m downstream of Eglence Creek and hence poses a considerable risk of debris flow, should the creek be temporarily dammed as a result of further mass movement. Material from the debris accumulation has been deposited on the base of Eglence Valley and has formed a debris-dam lake behind a debris dam. Trees, agricultural areas, and weirs in the Eglence Creek have seen serious damage resulting from the debris flow. The slope angle, slope aspect and elevation of the area in this study were generated using a GIS-based digital elevation model (DEM). The stability of the Alaard?ç Slope was assessed using limit equilibrium analysis with undrained peak and residual shear strength parameters. In the stability analyses, laboratory test results performed on the soil-like marls were used. It was determined that the Alaard?ç Slope is found to be stable under dry conditions and unstable under completely saturated conditions. The Alaard?ç Slope and its vicinity is a paleolandslide area, and there the factor of safety for sliding was found to be about 1.0 under saturated conditions. The Alaard?ç Slope and the deposited earthen materials in Eglence Creek could easily be triggered into movement by any factors or combination of factors, such as prolonged or heavy rainfall, snowmelt or an earthquake. It was established that the depth of the debris flow initiated on the Yaka Landslide reached up to 8 m in Eglence Creek at the point it is 20 m wide. If this deposited material in Eglence Creek is set into motion, the canal that passes through Yaka, with its respective width and depth of 7 and 1.45 m, could not possibly discharge the flow. The destruction or spillover of this canal in Yaka could bring catastrophic loss to residents which are located within 3–5 m of the bank of the canal. Furthermore, if material present in the landslide source area slides and this displaced material puts pressure on the unstable deposited material in Eglence Creek, even more catastrophic loss would occur to the town of Yaka. In this study, it was determined that debris flows are still a major hazard to Yaka and its population of 3,000. The results provided in this study could help citizens, planners, and engineers to reduce losses caused by existing and future landslides and debris flow in rainfall and snowmelt conditions by means of prevention and mitigation.     

A test of transferability for landslides susceptibility models under extreme climatic events: application to the Messina 2009 disaster

A model building strategy is tested to assess the susceptibility for extreme climatic events driven shallow landslides. In fact, extreme climatic inputs such as storms typically are very local phenomena in the Mediterranean areas, so that with the exception of recently stricken areas, the landslide inventories which are required to train any stochastic model are actually unavailable. A solution is here proposed, consisting in training a susceptibility model in a source catchment, which was implemented by applying the binary logistic regression technique, and exporting its predicting function (selected predictors regressed coefficients) in a target catchment to predict its landslide distribution. To test the method, we exploit the disaster that occurred in the Messina area (southern Italy) on 1 October 2009 where, following a 250-mm/8-h storm, approximately two thousand debris flow/debris avalanches landslides in an area of 21 km² triggered, killing 37 people and injuring more than 100, and causing 0.5 M € worth of structural damage. The debris flows and debris avalanches phenomena involved the thin weathered mantle of the Varisican low to high-grade metamorphic rocks that outcrop in the eastern slopes of the Peloritani Mounts. Two 10-km²-wide stream catchments, which are located inside the storm core area, were exploited: susceptibility models trained in the Briga catchment were tested when exported to predict the landslides distribution in the Giampilieri catchment. The prediction performance (based on goodness of fit, prediction skill, accuracy and precision assessment) of the exported model was then compared with that of a model prepared in the Giampilieri catchment exploiting its landslide inventory. The results demonstrate that the landslide scenario observed in the Giampilieri catchment can be predicted with the same high performance without knowing its landslide distribution: we obtained, in fact, a very poor decrease in predictive performance when comparing the exported model to the native random partition-based model.     

ICL/IPL regional activities in West Africa

Landslides account for huge amount of property damage in virtually every part of the world. The 2011 Iva Valley debris flow in Enugu, Nigeria; the 2010 landslide in Bududa region, 275?km east of Kampala, Uganda; the 2010 debris avalanche in Benue state, Nigeria; the 2008 landslide in Congo; and the 2007 landslide in western Cameroon with a combined human death of over 4,000 remain a modern day illustration of the degree of threat to public safety catastrophic landslides symbolize. Landslides do not only destroy lives and resources, they also deface and devalue historical, cultural, and entertainment facilities critical to the survival of man. Taming their aggression and ruinous impacts, thereby rescuing the environment from potential crisis, should, in point of fact, become a priority. In West Africa, landslides cause losses worth several millions of dollars annually. Nigeria remains one of the most vulnerable places. In both the southern and northern divide of the country, there is a mix of sedimentary, igneous, and metamorphic rocks which provide a good basis for the application of geology to urban development and hazard zonation in Nigeria. Quite often, similar engineering geologic problems including landslides and rockfalls, foundation problems in montmorilonite-rich clayey soils and problems associated with abandoned mines have been observed in both divides. The ICL/IPL program attempts to evaluate the engineering geologic problems in these two zones and provide case histories as illustrations. Experience gained in one area may be applied regionally to tackle problems in any other area with similar geology.     

Landslide blockage length estimation for the man-made linear structures

The landslide blockage length along a man-made linear structure, the Alishan railway, is analyzed herein. The Alishan railway runs from Chiayi City to the Alishan scenic area. Numerous landslide and debris flow disasters have blocked the railway since it began operations in 1911. In this study, features of landslides are interpreted from Spot 5 images along the Alishan railway. The results show that larger landslides along the railway exhibit a power-law distribution in frequency-area analysis. The railway blockage length by landslide and its frequency can be linearized by plotting it in a log scale for a blockage length over 0.02?km. The characteristics may be attributed to the fact that the landslide magnitude for its area and volume versus frequency exhibits a power-law distribution. It may thus be possible to estimate the blockage length of linear structures (e.g., railway and expressway) by landslides using the power-law distribution.     

汶川八级地震地质灾害研究

汶川地震触发了15000多处滑坡、崩塌、泥石流,估计直接造成2万人死亡。地质灾害隐患点达10000余多处,以崩塌体增加最为显著,反映出地震对山区高陡斜坡的影响差异性非常大,在山顶上的放大作用非常显著。通过综合分析堰塞湖库容、滑坡坝高以及坝体物质组成和结构,对地震形成的33处坝高大于10m的滑坡堰塞湖进行了评估,划分出极高、高、中和低4种溃决危险。汶川地震滑坡滑床往往不具连续平整的滑面,尖点撞击是极震区滑坡的一大共性,可以分为勺型滑床、凸型滑床和阶型滑床等类型。据实地调查,滑坡附近震毁建筑物垂向震动非常明显,具有地震抛掷撞击崩裂高速滑流三阶段特征。在高速滑流中,发生3种效应:(1)高速气垫效应,滑坡体由较大块石和土构成,具有一定厚度,飞行行程可达1~3km;(2)碎屑流效应,撞击粉碎的土石呈流动状态,特别是含水丰富时,形成长程流滑;(3)铲刮效应,巨大撞击力导致下部岩体崩裂,形成新滑坡、崩塌,但是,其厚度不大,滑床起伏不平。本文以北川城西滑坡和青川东河口滑坡为例,分析了地震滑坡高速远程滑动及成灾机理。北川县城城西滑坡导致1600人被埋死亡,数百间房屋被毁,是汶川地震触发的最严重的滑坡灾难,举世罕见。青川东河口滑坡碎屑流是汶川地震触发的较为典型的高速远程复合型滑坡,滑程约2400m,高速碎屑流冲抵清江河左岸,形成滑坡坝,致使7个村庄被埋,约400人死亡。     

Landslides triggered by the 1949 Khait earthquake, Tajikistan, and associated loss of life

Earthquake-triggered landslides are a major geological hazard in Central Asia. In July 1949, the M7.4 Khait earthquake triggered many hundreds of landslides in a mountainous region near the southern limit of the Tien Shan Mountains, central Tajikistan. These landslides involved widespread rock-slope failure as well as large numbers of flowslides in loess that mantles the steep slopes of the region. In the Yasman valley hundreds of loess landslides coalesced to form a massive loess flow (est. vol. 245 Mm³) that travelled up to 20 km on a slope of only 2°. In an adjacent valley, the Khait landslide involved transformation of an earthquake-triggered rockslide into a very rapid flow by the entrainment of saturated loess into its movement. It travelled 7.41 km over a vertical distance of 1421 m with an estimated average velocity of ~30 m/s. We estimate its volume as 75 Mm³, an order of magnitude less that previously published estimates. The Khait landslide was simulated using DAN. The number of casualties due to earthquake-triggered landslides in the epicentral region was considerable. Approximately 4000 people were killed in the Yasman valley loess flow as 20 villages (kishlaks) were overwhelmed. In the Khait landslide alone we estimate ca. 800 people lost their lives when the villages of Khait and Khisorak were overrun by rapidly moving debris. Our data indicates that a total of approximately 7200 people were killed by earthquake-triggered landslides in the epicentral region of the Khait earthquake and that, in terms of loss of life, the 1949 Yasman valley loess flow was one of the most destructive landslides in recent history.     

Landslide hazards triggered by the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake, Sichuan, China

The 2008 Wenchuan earthquake (M _s = 8.0; epicenter located at 31.0° N, 103.4° E), with a focal depth of 19.0 km was triggered by the reactivation of the Longmenshan fault in Wenchuan County, Sichuan Province, China on 12 May 2008. This earthquake directly caused more than 15,000 geohazards in the form of landslides, rockfalls, and debris flows which resulted in about 20,000 deaths. It also caused more than 10,000 potential geohazard sites, especially for rockfalls, reflecting the susceptibility of high and steep slopes in mountainous areas affected by the earthquake. Landslide occurrence on mountain ridges and peaks indicated that seismic shaking was amplified by mountainous topography. Thirty-three of the high-risk landslide lakes with landslide dam heights greater than 10 m were classified into four levels: extremely high risk, high risk, medium risk, and low risk. The levels were created by comprehensively analyzing the capacity of landslide lakes, the height of landslide dams, and the composition and structure of materials that blocked rivers. In the epicenter area which was 300 km long and 10 km wide along the main seismic fault, there were lots of landslides triggered by the earthquake, and these landslides have a common characteristic of a discontinuous but flat sliding surface. The failure surfaces can be classified into the following three types based on their overall shape: concave, convex, and terraced. Field evidences illustrated that the vertical component of ground shaking had a significant effect on both building collapse and landslide generation. The ground motion records show that the vertical acceleration is greater than the horizontal, and the acceleration must be larger than 1.0 g in some parts along the main seismic fault. Two landslides are discussed as high speed and long runout cases. One is the Chengxi landslide in Beichuan County, and the other is the Donghekou landslide in Qingchuan County. In each case, the runout process and its impact on people and property were analyzed. The Chengxi landslide killed 1,600 people and destroyed numerous houses. The Donghekou landslide is a complex landslide–debris flow with a long runout. The debris flow scoured the bank of the Qingjiang River for a length of 2,400 m and subsequently formed a landslide dam. This landslide buried seven villages and killed more than 400 people.     

Activity and distribution of geohazards induced by the Lushan earthquake,April 20, 2013

An Ms7.0 earthquake, focal depth 13 km, struck Lushan on April 20, 2013, caused 196 deaths and 21 missing, 13,484 injuries, and affected more than two million people. A field investigation was taken immediately after the quake, and the induced hazards were analyzed in comparison with the Wenchuan earthquake. We have identified 1,460 landslides and avalanches and four dammed lakes, which were generally small and concentrated on high elevation. Avalanches and rockfalls developed in cliffs and steep slopes of hard rocks, including Jinjixia of Baosheng Town and Dayanxia of Shuangshi Town, Lushan, and the K317 section the Xiaoguanzi section north to Lingguan Town along the provincial highway S210. Landslides were relatively less, mainly in moderate and small scales, developing in sandstone, shale, and loose colluviums. Only one single large landslide was observed to turn into debris slide-flow. Dammed lakes were formed by avalanches and landslides, all in small size and of low danger degree. The earthquake-induced hazards distributed in belt on the hanging wall along the faults, and their major controlling factors include tectonics, lithology, structure surface, and landform. More than 99 % landslides were within 30 km to the epicenter, and 678 within 10 km, accounting for 46 % of the total; about 50 % landslides were distributed on slopes between 35° and 55°, and 11 % on slope exceeding 75°; 60 % on slopes at the altitudes between 1,000 and 1,500 m, 77 % on slopes between 900 and 1,500 m; and 24 and 62 % in hard rocks and section between hard and soft rocks, respectively. Compared with the case of Wenchuan earthquake, both the number and extension of landslides and avalanches in Lushan earthquake-affected area are much smaller, only 5.53 % in number and 0.57 % in area. The earthquake has increased the instability of slope and potentiality of landslide and debris flow. Accordingly, the active period is expected to be relatively short comparing with that in Wenchuan earthquake-hit area. However, the insidious and concealed hazards bring difficulty for risk investigation.     

汶川地震触发大光包巨型滑坡基本特征及形成机理分析

大光包红洞子沟巨型滑坡是汶川地震触发的最大规模滑坡,其体积达7.42亿m3, 堰塞坝高达690m,是我国已知的最大规模地震滑坡和最高的滑坡堰塞坝,也是目前全世界已知的为数不多的几个方量在5亿m3以上的超大规模滑坡之一,其高达690m的滑坡堰塞坝为目前世界最高的滑坡坝。滑坡位于发震断层上盘,距发震断裂映秀北川断裂不足7km。震前斜坡为三面切割的孤立型山脊,相对高差达1500m;斜坡岩层走向与坡面近于垂直,层面延展性极好,构成滑动面形成的基础。调查和分析表明,斜坡的临空条件和贯通性好的灰岩层面是滑坡产生的基础;而高强度和长持时强震地面运动是导致滑坡产生的根本因素。滑坡产生的机理和过程可分为以下4个阶段:即坡体震裂、松弛和解体阶段、高速溃滑阶段、震动堆积阶段、二次抛射和碎屑流堆积阶段。失稳高速下滑的坡体,形成了沿主滑方向长4.2km,宽2.2km的堆积体,高速流动的碎屑流越过下游侧风波岩山脊,沿红洞子沟形成了长1km的碎屑流堆积区。     

The deformation analysis of Wenjiagou giant landslide by the distributed scatterer interferometry technique

After the deadly Ms 8.0 Wenchuan earthquake, the Wenjiagou landslide produced steep topography, a narrow gully and abundant loose sediments; these factors have contributed to the high debris flow risk in the Wenjiagou area during subsequent rainy seasons. At least five debris flows have occurred in the Wenjiagou area between September 24, 2008, and September 18, 2010, which resulted in seven casualties and an economic loss of approximately 446 million RMB. To reduce the risk of debris flows and landslides, the Wenjiagou Valley Debris Flow Control Project (WVDFCP), which cost over 2 billion RMB, was carried out and completed in 2011. The control measures of the project effectively reduced the scale and damage of the following debris flows. In this paper, the recent deformation of the giant landslide and its effect on the WVDFCP are evaluated by applying a time-series interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) technique based on distributed scatterers (DSs) to the Radardat-2 SAR data collected from June 2014 to September 2015. In addition, the experimental results show that most areas of the landslide are stable, with an average deformation rate of less than 5.0 mm/year. The results demonstrate that the control measures of the WVDFCP not only reduced the damage caused by the later debris flows but also contributed to the consolidation of the loose sediments in the Wenjiagou landslide area. The time-series InSAR technique based on the DSs of high-resolution SAR images is an important tool for deformation monitoring of earthquake-induced landslides.     

Characteristics and numerical runout modeling of the heavy rainfall-induced catastrophic landslide–debris flow at Sanxicun,Dujiangyan, China,following the Wenchuan Ms 8.0 earthquake

The 2008 Ms 8.0 Wenchuan earthquake triggered a large number of extensive landslides. It also affected geologic properties of the mountains such that large-scale landslides followed the earthquake, resulting in the formation of a disaster chain. On 10 July 2013, a catastrophic landslide–debris flow suddenly occurred in the Dujiangyan area of Sichuan Province in southeast China. This caused the deaths of 166 people and the burying or damage of 11 buildings along the runout path. The landslide involved the failure of ≈1.47 million m³, and the displaced material from the source area was ≈0.3 million m³. This landslide displayed shear failure at a high level under the effects of a rainstorm, which impacted and scraped an accumulated layer underneath and a heavily weathered rock layer during the release of potential and kinetic energies. The landslide body entrained a large volume of surface residual diluvial soil, and then moved downstream along a gully to produce a debris flow disaster. This was determined to be a typical landslide–debris flow disaster type. The runout of displaced material had a horizontal extent of 1200 m and a vertical extent of 400 m. This was equivalent to the angle of reach (fahrböschung angle) of 19° and covered an area of 0.2 km². The background and motion of the landslide are described in this study. On the basis of the above analysis, dynamic simulation software (DAN3D) and rheological models were used to simulate the runout behavior of the displaced landslide materials in order to provide information for the hazard zonation of similar types of potential landslide–debris flows in southeast China following the Wenchuan earthquake. The simulation results of the Sanxicun landslide revealed that the frictional model had the best performance for the source area, while the Voellmy model was most suitable for the scraping and accumulation areas. The simulations estimated that the motion could last for ≈70 s, with a maximum speed of 47.7 m/s.     

The sedimentology and geomorphology of rock avalanche deposits on glaciers

This article describes and compares the deposits of four large landslides on two glaciers in Alaska using field mapping and remote sensing. Digital image analysis is used to compare the sedimentological characteristics of nearly 200 000 individual surface blocks deposited by three landslides at Black Rapids Glacier in 2002. The debris sheets of one of the three landslides on Black Rapids Glacier and a landslide emplaced on Sherman Glacier in 1964 are also investigated. The three landslides on Black Rapids Glacier have undergone little post‐depositional modification by glacier flow, whereas the Sherman Glacier landslide has been transported supraglacially up to ca 1 km over the past 46 years. The three debris sheets on Black Rapids Glacier have coarse blocky rims at their distal edges, and all four debris sheets have longitudinal flowbands characterized by differences in texture and produced by shearing within the moving debris. Elongated blocks are parallel to flow, except at the perimeter of the debris sheets, where they are aligned more perpendicular to flow. Blocks on the Sherman Glacier debris sheet have been reoriented by glacier flow. The matrix shows no systematic differences with depth or distance from the source. However, it appears to become coarser over a time scale of decades due to weathering.     

5.12震源区牛眠沟暴雨滑坡泥石流预测模型

牛眠沟研究区位于2008-05-12汶川大地震线性震源的南端,受强烈地震力作用,区内山体遭受严重破坏,发生多处滑坡和泥石流灾害。根据已建立的暴雨滑坡、泥石流预测概念模型,暴雨滑坡、泥石流预测可视为判断滑坡形成的地质环境和确定触发滑坡的降雨特征。查明研究区地质环境及灾害特征,确定了产生滑坡、泥石流的必要地质环境因子,以数字滑坡技术获取这些因子数据,代入模型,即可评价研究区各处、各沟谷发生滑坡、泥石流的危险程度;与相似地质环境及气候条件进行类比,确定研究区触发滑坡、泥石流的降雨特征及降雨量阈值后,最终建立暴雨滑坡、泥石流预测模型。据此模型进行研究区暴雨滑坡、泥石流预测,实地验证表明滑坡、泥石流发生位置的准确率>90%。     

ICL/IPL activities in West Africa: landslide risk assessment and hazard mapping approach

The ICL/IPL Project achieved results in capacity building, investigation of landslides in West Africa and also evaluated some other slope movements in the region. These include the catastrophic rock–debris avalanche at the Cameroon–Nigeria border and the Iva Valley landslides in Enugu. During the avalanche, an estimated 100 M m³ of rock and debris was moved more than 2 km from the source of the slide at 600 m above sea level to the toe in the valley in a few minutes. The materials range from mud and soil debris to blocks of rocks up to 20 m in diameter. The grain size of moved material tended to increase upslope and closer to the head scarp though it tended to decrease again close to and at the source area. Nature and composition of the basement bedrock with foliation planes dipping in the direction of slope, dominant joint sets oriented perpendicularly to the foliation, the nature of weathered material and high relief were strong factors in the avalanche. Field studies identified 43 landslides at the Iva Valley area of Enugu state, which were shallow, short run-out movements with slip-surface depth less than 2 m. The shallow slides and the avalanche are triggered by water infiltration in slopes with high topographic gradient. The soil saturation leads to a reduction of the shear strength of the soil because of a rise in pore water pressure. These landslides are known to occur during or after intense rainfalls at the beginning or at the tail end of rainy season.     

Zoning for flowslide and debris flow in pyroclastic soils of Campania Region based on “infinite slope” analysis

Campania Region (Italy), one of the most densely populated areas in Europe, is probably the one with the highest risk of landslide. A large part of the region is covered by unsaturated cohesionless pyroclastic deposits subjected to rainfall-induced landslides. According to experience, these can display different features and magnitude. The most catastrophic landslides are liquefied debris flows which periodically occur on steep slopes, causing death and destruction in areas located downslope. Therefore, zoning of those areas which can be the source of liquefied debris flow is necessary. The paper reports some useful elements for zoning based on infinite slope analysis, accounting for the results of recent research on the mechanics of rainfall-induced landslides in pyroclastic soils.     

GIS支持下CF与Logistic回归模型耦合的九寨沟景区滑坡易发性评价

2017年8月8日九寨沟M_S7.0地震诱发了数以千计的崩滑体,产生的大量松散固体碎屑在降雨作用下极易启动转化为新的滑坡或泥石流形成次生灾害,因此对九寨沟景区进行滑坡易发性评价尤为必要。基于震前、震后高精度遥感影像对比分析结合现场调查,共获取1047处滑坡,总面积为3.88 km2。在分析滑坡发育分布与影响因素关系的基础上,本文选取了构造因子、地形因子、地质因子及其他因子等9个指标,采用确定性系数(CF)模型、逻辑回归(Logistic)模型以及两种模型耦合分析进行滑坡易发性评价。研究结果表明,坡度、坡向、高程和地层岩性是影响滑坡分布的主要因子;研究区被划分为低易发区(60.72%)、中度易发区(24.18%)、高易发区(9.89%)和极高易发区(5.21%),高-极高易发区基本沿沟谷分布,面积为99 km2,其中熊猫海、老虎海周边均为滑坡极高易发区;采用耦合模型比单一模型评价结果更加合理,其结果可作为景区滑坡防治和分段分时开放的参考依据。     

Cost assessment of losses due to recent reactivation of Kaliasaur landslide on National Highway 58 in Garhwal Himalaya

National Highway (NH) 58 is one of the important and the major lifelines, which connects Uttarakhand state with rest of the country and linked with its socioeconomic progress. Uttarakhand, being one of the major tourist and pilgrimage hubs of the country, highways are preferred to be consistently maintained and trafficable. However, due to frequent landslide occurrences, particularly during monsoon months (July to September), the highway is poorly maintained. There are hundreds of landslides along the NH 58 starting from Rishikesh (the foot of the Garhwal Himalaya) to Badrinath, the holy shrine of India covering a distance of 320 km. Many landslides are historic, 4–5 decades old and recurring every year during monsoon. Kaliasaur landslide (147 km), Pakhi landslide (250 km), Tangni landslide (254 km), Patalganga landslide (256 km), and Lambagarh landslide (302 km) are a few among the critical ones. Kaliasaur landslide that is one of the most critical landslides recurring for over 9 decades at 147 km on National Highway 58 (from Haridwar) has been selected for the study. It has reportedly occurred first time in 1920 and since then recurring at regular intervals, causing huge socioeconomic losses involving both direct and indirect costs. Previous records of any attempt to estimate the direct (rehabilitation cost, cost on prevention and control) or indirect cost (expenses due to detouring, cost of productive time loss, loss of tourism, and loss in business) have not been found. As a result, the accurate economical impact of landslide on society is very roughly estimated. Even if the estimates of indirect losses are roughly estimated, added with some direct losses will provide the basis for developing the right strategies for proper mitigation and management of landslides. In this paper, an effort is made, first time, to examine the effects of Kaliasaur landslide on socioeconomics of the region. Since the direct losses on property damaged could not be estimated due to lack of recorded documentation, this study mainly focuses on the indirect losses on detouring during the damage/blockage of the highway and some significant direct losses such as restoration work, loss of lives, and damage of vehicles.