三峡树坪滑坡动力学的有限元模拟

三峡工程是迄今为止最大的水利工程,对库区滑坡灾害的监测和机制研究一直是重要的研究课题。本文利用Terra SAR-X的强度图进行相关计算,求解出2009年5月20日至8月5日期间三峡树坪滑坡的形变场。该形变场特征和树坪滑坡体的地形特征吻合甚好,位移大小、方向和三峡大学对滑坡体的野外观测结果基本吻合。以此高精度位移场为外部约束,结合野外观测资料对滑坡体介质力学性质进行分类并选取边界条件,利用有限元方法对滑坡活动进行动力学计算模拟。计算过程中对滑坡体的滑动面形状、因降雨引起材料参数变化和三峡水库水位等因素分别反演和调整,得出符合其变形和发展过程的滑坡动力学特征。发现软弱带的物性参数决定滑坡体总体滑动量,滑坡体的物性参数决定位移分布的峰值位置。在确定了滑坡动力学特征之后,进一步讨论降雨和库区水位下降对滑坡产生的贡献权重,得出降雨是树坪滑坡的决定因素。     

中等倾角岩层顺向坡滑坡发育特征及形成机制分析

中等倾角岩层顺向坡,受坡体结构和岩体物理力学性质控制,多存在变形、崩塌、滑坡等工程地质问题,常常会诱发大规模的地质灾害。该类斜坡潜在滑动面不直接出露地表,一般具有变形机制复杂、隐蔽性强和危害大的特点,是滑坡领域关注与研究的重点。拖担水库大坝左岸为一古滑坡,在水库扩建开挖过程中,诱发古滑坡体复活。在分析古滑坡工程地质条件的基础上,结合地质勘察和变形监测结果,研究了其变形特征及形成机制。研究结果表明:①左岸古滑坡具有岩层倾角“上陡下缓”、滑体底部存在反倾坡内的剪切破碎带、滑床岩体产生弧状弯曲的特点;②古滑坡体为一基岩顺层滑坡,滑动模式为“滑移（弯曲）—剪断”型,其变形破坏过程包括三个阶段:弯曲隆起阶段、滑移剪出阶段和扰动变形阶段;③该类斜坡变形破坏后,坡体易沿“上陡下缓”的椅型软弱层面发生二次滑动,滑坡控制关键是对下部变形区的保护。     

水动力型滑坡形成运动机理与防控减灾技术

水动力型滑坡是指在冰川融雪、降雨、水位变动、地表径流及地下水活动等水动力因素驱动下而发生的斜坡岩土体失稳灾害。西南地区是水动力型滑坡尤其是库区滑坡的高发区,其失稳破坏直接威胁到人类的生命财产和基础设施的安全,且有可能造成深远的次生灾害,提升水动力型滑坡灾害的监测预警、综合防控与应急处置水平极为迫切。水动力型滑坡易发于松散堆积层、破碎岩体、软岩以及含有软弱夹层的斜坡等地层,地质环境、水文活动以及人类活动干扰等因素的长期作用在水动力型滑坡的孕育过程中起着关键作用。斜坡在各种不利因素的持续交替作用下,逐渐产生变形破坏,稳定性不断降低并趋于极限失稳状态,最终在短期水文条件的改变下而导致整体失稳破坏。斜坡失稳后的滑坡动力过程非常复杂,尤其是特大型高位滑坡,在运动过程中可能会产生强烈的冲击破碎和沿程侵蚀铲刮现象,导致滑坡运动性态的改变和堆积方量的增大,水的存在会加剧滑坡沿程侵蚀铲刮作用以及导致运动性态向流态化转变而造成更远的运动距离和更广的致灾范围。水动力型滑坡是一个复杂的系统性问题,不同地质结构和水动力条件的滑坡变形破坏过程存在很大差异,远距离非接触式滑坡早期识别与监测技术以及基于人工智能和大数据且具备自主学习的滑坡预报预警方法是未来重要发展方向。水动力型滑坡防治涉及到工程建设、经济民生、社会等多方面因素,需要综合运用工程措施和非工程措施。在未来水利水电工程建设过程中,应重视库区滑坡的危害性,复建设施的修建应尽可能远离库区滑坡影响区。     

Correlation between incompetent beds and slope deformation at Badong town in the Three Gorges reservoir, China

Badong town is a new immigration area in the Three Gorges reservoir, China, which is built on many giant deep-seated landslides. In this region, the slope deformation is very severe and it is strongly correlated with the incompetent beds, which are distributed widely in the rock mass. In this paper, two giant deep-seated translational rock landslides used as study cases are Huangtupo landslide and Zhaoshuling landslide. Firstly, the composition materials, structures and deformation characteristics of the two landslides are analyzed. Then, the position, structure, mineral composition and the formation mechanism of the incompetent beds are studied in detail. Finally, based on the comparison of the position, mineral and structure between incompetent beds and sliding zones of the landslides, the correlations between incompetent beds and giant landslide are discussed. The results indicate that 13 large incompetent beds exist in the middle Triassic Badong Formation strata, which can be divided into three types as weak interlayers, crushed beds and groundwater corrosion zones. The dominant minerals in the incompetent beds are illite, chlorite, quartz and calcite. The contents of the clay minerals in different positions are quite distinct, and the maximum difference of clay content exceeds 70 %. In addition, it is found that the contents of minerals in incompetent beds are similar to the slide zones of the landslides. The initial deformation of slopes normally developed along the incompetent beds, which induced subsequent shear displacement easily. Under the effect of gravity, the deep slip zones were generated mainly along the incompetent beds and the failure mode evolved from creep to integral slide gradually. The results can provide an important reference for the mechanism analysis and prevention of landslides in Badong town.     

石榴树包滑坡变形监测及演化趋势分析

石榴树包滑坡是长江三峡河段中大型滑坡之一黄腊石滑坡群的一个重要组成部分,它位于巴东县城东1.5km的长江北岸,下距三峡坝址66km。该滑坡体现代变形活动自20世纪70年代以来渐趋明显,特别是三峡水库蓄水以来,滑坡的变形十分显著。本文在调查分析石榴树包滑坡形态特征、结构特征及变形破坏特征的基础上,基于滑坡10多年的变形监测资料,研究了石榴树包滑坡的影响因素和变形演化特征和规律,并利用灰色GM(1,1)模型预测了滑坡的变形发展趋势,为滑坡减灾防灾实践和滑坡治理方案的设计提供了依据。     

Analysis of Baishuihe landslide influenced by the effects of reservoir water and rainfall

Since the impoundment of the Three Gorges Reservoir in June 2003, a number of new landslides have occurred and existing landslides have been made worse. The 1,260 × 10⁴ m³ Baishuihe landslide, located at 56 km west of the Three Gorges Dam, began to deform more noticeably after the first impoundment in early July 2003. The sliding of the two blocks comprising the landslide, one an active block and the other a relatively stable block, became apparent after approximately 5 years of monitoring. Field recordings show that the landslide displacement is affected by the combined effects of the rainfall and water level in the reservoir. These effects have been investigated in the present paper, including the deformation characteristics (movement pattern, direction, displacement and velocity) earmarking the temporal evolution of the active block. Based on a practical creep model of a large rock slide, alert velocity thresholds for pre-alert, alert and emergency phases have been computed corresponding to the imminence of failure. The alert velocity thresholds are being proposed to be included as a part of an early-warning system of an emergency plan drawn up to minimize the adverse impact in the event of landslide failure. The emergency plan is intended to be implemented as a risk management tool by the relevant authorities of the Three Gorges Reservoir in the near future.     

顺层缓倾型水库滑坡稳定性物理模拟试验研究—以向家坪滑坡为例

深入研究顺层缓倾型水库滑坡的变形破坏规律、影响因素以及失稳条件, 以三峡库区向家坪滑坡为典型实例, 基于相似理论建立地质物理模型, 考虑水位升降、降雨(含汛期)等诱发因素, 通过监测滑坡模型的位移、土压力及孔隙水压力的时空演化规律, 掌握滑坡的变形特征和规律。结果表明:库水位上升, 坡体前缘不断被浸没, 致使土体结构松散, 前缘发生滑移式滑塌; 库水位下降, 其位移、土压力和孔隙水压力在坡体中部和后缘均无变化, 但前缘破坏范围扩大, 延伸至中部; 库水位的独立变动仅影响下伏滑床水位, 但当其与后缘的基岩裂隙水耦合作用时, 可改变滑床的承压水头; 汛期降雨较小, 对滑坡稳定性影响不大, 仅土压力和孔隙水压有小幅度的变化, 没有位移变形; 在暴雨作用下, 中部和后缘先后发生变形, 土体应力累积和释放。库水位下降时, 强降雨将改变坡体原始应力状态, 坡体产生微小变形; 在极端条件下向家坪滑坡发生滑动的可能性较大, 库水位的下降、暴雨和后缘水位相互耦合作用导致坡体变形破坏。研究结果可为库区地质灾害防治和减灾提供科学依据。     

地震与强降雨作用下堆积体滑坡变形破坏机理及防治方案分析

位于西南山地堆积体滑坡常受到地震和强降雨的双重作用,查明此类滑坡变形破坏机理是地质灾害防治和风险防控的基础。文章的研究对象是鲜水河断裂带附近的炉霍县马居滑坡。研究表明,地震作用对位于斜坡地带堆积体滑坡体结构损伤明显,不但使滑坡整体稳定性下降,还促使坡体内裂隙大量发育,利于降雨入渗,进一步恶化滑坡的水文地质条件。强降雨形成的大规模洪水和泥石流下切坡脚沟道,牵引滑坡体整体向下。长历时强降雨入渗影响坡体稳定性,且在降雨结束后较长时间持续影响坡体稳定性。因此,对此类滑坡防治的对策应考虑坡脚防护和抗滑支挡设置。在对防治方案的有效性分析后,表明防护方案在极端条件下仍然能保障安全性,达防治和风险管控的目的。     

Deformation response regularity of Liujiaba landslide under fluctuating reservoir water level condition

Due to the periodic rising and falling of the reservoir water level, the rock–soil body of bank slope is constantly changing between the saturated and unsaturated status, which changes the limit equilibrium condition of the slope body, resulting in a large number of dormant landslide reactivation and new landslide generation after water impounding operation of the three gorges reservoir. Based on the long-term monitoring data of pore-water pressure, water content, reservoir water level, rainfall and landslide deformation, the deformation response regularity of Liujiaba landslide under the fluctuating reservoir level combined scenario is studied in this paper. The results show that the landslide deformation is mainly in the lower section affected by the fluctuation of the reservoir water. The slide deformation appears in the mid-early stage of the water level declining and during the running of 175 m water level. The deformation is gradually increasing from a slowly to rapidly stage, then slows down and gradually reduces to a relative stopped state. Considering that the variation of the saturation line in the landslide will be influenced by the water level fluctuation rate, the SEEP and SLOPE modules are used with Geo-studio software for the fluctuant reservoir level and response pattern of landslide deformation analysis. The study can be provided as a reference for landslides study of debris aggradational landslide.     

位移-应力协同分析在新近纪软岩质滑坡监测中的应用——以陕西宝鸡市北坡滑坡为例

强降雨可诱发新近纪软岩质滑坡滑移变形。1955年至今,降雨在陕西宝鸡诱发超过十起大型滑坡灾害。2011年9月19日,宝鸡市区72 h内的降雨量达到332 mm,北坡金鼎寺、簸箕山与高家崖滑坡出现裂缝,威胁市区居民安全。为分析滑坡的变形机制与降雨触发的滑体内地下水位的波动关系,2012—2015年,开展了降雨量、地下水位、孔隙水压力、滑坡应力与位移等物理量的实时监测,统计分析了它们的频率、活动强度及累积变化规律,提出了滑坡的位移扩展模型。研究显示:(1)地下水的活动会影响新近纪软岩质滑坡的变形,但降雨量、地下水位、孔隙水压力、滑坡体应力与位移等物理量变化机制有差异,地下水位、孔隙水压力呈周期性变化,滑坡体的应力、位移的变化具有累积效应;(2)宝鸡市北坡滑坡运动变形具有蠕变、快速滑移两个阶段。降雨会触发的滑坡体各物理量出现加速变化,地下水位波动幅度为0.27~1m,孔隙水压力的变化幅度为10kPa,滑体浅层的水平应力变化幅度为5.6kPa;(3)在判断降雨能否诱发滑坡快速滑移过程中,既需分析滑体应力、位移变化的累积效应,又需分析新近纪软岩质滑带的摩擦破坏机制。     

三峡库区巴东复杂斜坡系统变形机理数值模拟与稳定性研究

三峡库区巴东斜坡系统复杂,其变形机理与稳定性研究对移民迁建和地质灾害防治具有重要意义。本文采用FLAC3D数值计算方法,对巴东复杂斜坡系统变形机理进行研究,为“重力成因论”提供了支持和佐证。从整个斜坡系统的角度,联合使用数值计算方法(FLAC3D)和极限平衡法(Sarma法),系统研究了巴东复杂斜坡系统在不同蓄水状态下不同层次的稳定性问题,结果表明斜坡系统不存在整体深层滑动的可能性;斜坡系统沿岩层界面或软弱层发生失稳的可能性较小,但赵树岭滑体和黄土坡滑体在表层滑体发生较大变形或失稳的条件下,可能导致滑坡整体复活;在水库调蓄过程中,部分滑坡表层堆积体产生变形破坏的可能性较大。另外,斜坡的表层改造可能会引起斜坡中层稳定性的恶化。     

水位升降条件下牵引式滑坡离心模型试验

自三峡水库蓄水后,库区地质灾害频发,研究库水位升降条件下的库岸边坡稳定性与破坏模式日益重要。以三峡库区云阳县凉水井滑坡为原型,基于长江科学院CKY?200土工离心机,结合滑坡区工程地质概况,模拟制作了这一典型库岸滑坡的简化模型。采用高速相机、激光位移传感器、孔隙水压力传感器、土压力传感器等监测手段,在模型试验中实现了对边坡前缘水位高程及升降的控制,获取了试验过程中坡体水平位移和沉降、孔隙水压力、土压力值的变化规律,得到以下结论：试验从开始至加水阶段结束,模型位移以竖直方向为主,而在排水阶段则水平方向位移远大于竖直方向;试验过程中,在库水位上升与骤降作用下,首先在前缘产生裂隙,并逐渐向中部、后缘扩展,随后在中部产生较大变形,出现局部滑移,模型总体破坏形式呈牵引式破坏模式;试验结束时,模型自后缘起体积含水率逐渐增大;在水位上升期间,模型变形相对较小,主要滑移出现在水位下降期间,因此,该滑坡为动水压力型,产生变形破坏主要是由于动水压力效应所致。试验揭示了库岸牵引式滑坡在库水位升降条件下的破坏模式和变形失稳机制,为库区滑坡的防治提供了重要依据。     

考虑时滞效应的库区滑坡位移预测——以新铺滑坡为例

库区滑坡失稳每年不同程度影响区内人民生活和生产安全,滑坡位移精准预测对于灾害风险预警及防灾减灾十分重要。常规的位移预测方法未充分考虑降雨、库水位波动等诱发因素对滑坡变形的时滞效应,无法精确识别滞后天数及各因素的影响程度,制约了预测精度的提高。本文以三峡库区新铺滑坡为例,根据2021年度的位移监测与水文气象数据集,利用皮尔逊相关系数法定量描述了山坡尺度上降雨、库水位波动对滑坡变形的时滞效应,结合BP神经网络建立了一种考虑时滞效应的滑坡位移预测模型。分析结果表明：在山坡尺度上,库水位波动对地表变形的时滞效应明显,滞后时间呈现出从近岸向远岸逐渐增加的规律;降雨量对地表变形的时滞效应较弱,在山坡尺度上呈现相关度不高、滞后天数较短的规律;与未考虑时滞因素的模型相比,本研究中的滑坡位移预测模型拟合优度提升了55.77%,均方根误差降低了31.60%,模型预测精度显著提高。研究成果一定程度上揭示了特大型库区滑坡的变形机理,并为同类滑坡的位移精准预测提供了参考依据。     

三峡水库区陈家沟滑坡地质特征与防治措施

在研究了三峡水库区奉节县陈家沟滑坡的工程地质条件及滑坡体基本特征的基础上，介绍了该滑坡的结构及变形特征。从滑坡形成条件、诱发变形因素两方面分析了滑坡形成的原因及诱发坡体失稳的主要因素；据岩土样品的试验值、现场大剪值，结合地区经验值及反算值，确定计算滑坡稳定性及剩余滑坡推力的抗剪强度参数，考虑到未来三峡水库蓄水，在不同工况下对滑坡体进行稳定性计算。结果表明：在天然及暴雨情况下，滑坡整体均处于稳定状态；次级滑坡体在饱水及水库蓄水后，处于临界蠕滑或失稳状态。结合工程实际对滑坡治理进行初步研究，提出回填压脚专档为幸捕以排水的综合治理措施。     

Numerical modeling of seismic triggering,evolution, and deposition of rapid landslides: Application to Higashi–Takezawa (2004)

A mathematical model is developed for the dynamic analysis of earthquake‐triggered rapid landslides, considering two mechanically coupled systems: (a) the accelerating deformable body of the slide and (b) the rapidly deforming shear band at the base of the slide. The main body of the slide is considered as a one‐phase mixture of Newtonian incompressible fluids and Coulomb solids sliding on a plane of variable inclination. The evolution of the landslide is modeled via a depth‐integrated model of the Savage–Hutter type coupled with: (a) a cyclic hysteretic constitutive model of the Bouc–Wen type and (b) Voellmy's rheology for the deformation of the material within the shear band. The original shallow‐water equations that govern the landslide motion are appropriately reformulated to account for inertial forces due to seismic loading, and to allow for a smooth transition between the active and the passive state. The capability of the developed model is tested against the Higashi–Takezawa landslide. Triggered by the 2004 Niigata‐ken Chuetsu earthquake, the slide produced about 100m displacement of a large wedge from an originally rather mild slope. The mechanism of material softening inside the shear band responsible for the surprisingly large run‐out of the landslide is described by a set of equations for grain crushing‐induced pore‐water pressures. The back‐analysis reveals interesting patterns on the flow dynamics, and the numerical results compare well with field observations. It is shown that the mechanism of material softening is a crucial factor for the initiation and evolution of the landslide, while viscoplastic frictional resistance is a key requirement for successfully reproducing the field data. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Characteristics, mechanism and development tendency of deformation of Maoping landslide after commission of Geheyan reservoir on the Qingjiang River, Hubei Province, China

Based on field investigation of the constituent structure and geological formation of the Maoping landslide, the authors made an in-depth study of the deformation characteristics and triggering mechanism of the reservoir-induced slide through comprehensive analysis of the about 13 years observation data. The Maoping landslide, the largest ancient landslide in Geheyan reservoir, with a volume of 23.5 million m³, is located on the left bank of the Qingjiang River, 66 km upstream of Geheyan dam. In April 1993 reservoir inundation reactivated the landslide, which resulted in relocation of a village of 290 people. Since then the landslide body has been experiencing persistent deformation with an observed maximum displacement of 2841.4 mm up to October 2005. Therefore, further development of deformation of the landslide becomes a great concern for the safety of the reservoir and dam. The analysis results show that the Maoping landslide is an ancient landslide that is an accumulation of several consequent slides along the bank slope and experienced several secondary slumps in its front in later stages. The ongoing deformation of the reactivated landslide is controlled by mechanical properties of materials and hydraulic effects induced by reservoir. The slip process is of creep deformation as a whole, and appears to be attenuating in later stage, which indicates very low possibility of the high-speed slip and integral failure of the slide.     

基于大变形分析的三峡库区某滑坡防治设计研究

三峡库区某岩质滑坡的变形失稳涉及到地质、环境、人类工程活动等多种因素。针对该滑坡的变形破坏规律和诱发机制,拟采用削坡、抗滑桩、排水系统等加固措施,以确保滑坡整体和局部稳定,其中加固方案的长期有效性将是整个治理工程的关键。通过对大变形数值方法以及滑坡治理工程措施特点的分析,认为在研究滑坡治理工程大变形问题时采用非线性大变形数值方法更加合理,加固方案的优化设计采用了三维快速拉格朗日分析（FLAC3D）法,通过对滑坡区位移场以及破坏区的变化规律进行分析,将各项加固措施及其组合工况的治理效果进行对比优选,最后确定出以抗滑桩和削坡为主、排水为辅的最优加固方案。该方案的治理效果已被实践资料所证实,其中的部分方法和结论对三峡库区滑坡地质灾害的防治具有指导意义。     

降雨和库水位联合作用下库岸滑坡模型试验研究

受库区水位波动和降雨影响,库岸大量老滑坡体变形加剧,地质灾害问题十分突出。为研究库岸滑坡影响因素、变形演化规律及失稳条件,以大型物理模型试验为手段,选取三峡库区黄土坡滑坡临江Ⅰ号崩滑体为对象,通过考虑水位波动、降雨及其组合作用等诱发因素,开展了一系列的库岸滑坡模型试验研究。试验结果表明：水位升降,变形主要集中于模型坡体前缘,其中,水位抬升过程中,滑坡模型变形较小,变形加速阶段出现于水位下降期间,且变形速率与水位下降速率成正比,即临江Ⅰ号崩滑体为典型的动水压力型滑坡;降雨影响下坡体变形在时间和空间上存在明显分区现象,时间上,变形发展主要集中于坡体浅表层饱和之后,即短时降雨对坡体变形未产生显著影响,空间上,坡体前缘和后缘变形剧烈;库水位下降和强降雨联合作用下坡体前缘产生局部流滑破坏,并溯源发展至前缘整体破坏,为典型的牵引式破坏模式。试验揭示处于临滑阶段坡体,其孔隙水压力、土压力变化呈现异常频繁的波动现象,可为滑坡预警预报提供一定参考依据。     

基于数据挖掘的三峡库区特大滑坡变形关联规则研究

从实测数据中分析滑坡灾害的成因机理,对于准确识别潜在危险区与及时制定防治措施十分重要。由于现场监测数据的数量庞大、来源多样,常规的数据处理方法难以从海量监测数据中提取出有用的信息,进而对滑坡变形演化趋势作出正确评价和预测。本文基于经典数据挖掘方法中的两步聚类法与关联规则分析,提出了滑坡变形行为的关联分析挖掘技术,并以长江三峡库区新铺滑坡为例,对库水位波动及降雨影响下的特大滑坡位移速率进行了关联分析。结果表明:该滑坡的变形受库水位高程水平、库水位波动速率与降雨强度等因素的多重影响,水位下降、强降雨与滑坡变形密切相关;滑坡不同空间位置处的变形影响因素存在差异,由坡脚至坡顶,库水位波动的影响水平依次降低,降雨强度的影响水平逐渐增强。本文提出的数据挖掘方法可定量分析滑坡变形的控制因素,并通过与实测数据的对比验证了相关规则的可靠性,这对于海量监测数据条件下滑坡灾害的成因分析有重要意义。     

Failure and flow development of a complex slide: the 1993 Sesa landslide

Large landslides are often characterised by complex activity resulting from their ability to suddenly change behaviour. In fact, these landslides can pass from a slump to a flow characterised by relatively high mobility. This characteristic is a cause of extremely high severity and hazard in areas affected by such phenomena. An interesting case of a large slide in glacial deposits, which occurred in 1993 in the Valcamonica of the Italian Alps, is presented. Different approaches both to characterise the coarse frictional materials involved in the slide and to model the slide initiation and its evolution are adopted. The initial slide mass had a volume of almost 2 Mm³ and after its initial sliding motion along the slope, flowed for about 7 km down the main valley stream. Voight's method has been used to analyse measured slope displacements recorded for a few years before the slope failure. This analysis provided evidence that different times of failure could have been predicted beforehand by rigorous examination of the available data. Laboratory tests and image/processing techniques have been performed to characterise the landslide material as resembling a “bimrock” (block in matrix material). Slope stability analyses have been performed and a dynamic modelling method has been tested on the flow by comparing its results to those obtained by analysis of eyewitness statements and field observations on the mudline left by the flow. Finally, existing empirical approaches for hazard assessment on an alluvial fan have been applied and modified to produce a hazard zonation map for the alluvial fan area by considering maximum expected discharge, local geometry of the channel and the possibility of channel occlusion and subsequent avulsion.