Seismic Risk Region Determination by Information Entropy

During the preparation process of a great earthquake, there are certain patterns of less randomness but more order in the space-time distribution of micro-earthquakes, which had been proved by seismic events and experiments. The information entropy concerning the dimension of the order in seismic distribution is systematically defined from the point of modern statistical physics in this paper. Relations of dynamic variations of information entropy with a strong shock occurrence time and the distribution of information with a strong shock occurrence place were approached through seismic data from the Wuqia, Xikar, Wushi, and Manasi regions in Xinjiang. It is indicated that before strong earthquakes, the value of information entropy often noticeably drops in seismic region, and generally much lower in the epicentral area than the surrounding regions. These two characters are of important significance in strong shock risk region determination and large shock tendency prediction.     

Preliminary Research on Relation Between Field and Source in Earthquake Preparation

The "field" and "source" are two important branches in seismology and earthquake research.In this paper,we use a computer model to study the relation between the field and the source in earthquake activity.In our modeling,a network of nonlinear elements is used to simulate seismic activity of seismic zones in a seismotectonic block.Constant strain rate is enforced on the boundary of the model,cyclic seismic activity,quasi-periodic variation of stress field intensity,and strain energy are observed with high and low fluctuations.There is a main seismicity area in seismic cycles,and the main seismicity area shows the spatial migration during different seismic cycles.If the precursory area is related to high element stress,it is found that the development of precursors in our model is quite complicated.No certain relation between the precursors and earthquakes has been discovered.Anomalies show different characteristics in the seismic quiet period and active period.All of the seismic zones in the system hav     

Countermeasures for and Experiences in Seismic Hazard Mitigation in Uganda

For earthquake-prone countries of the world, it is crucial to develop countermeasures and to share experiences in seismic hazard mitigation. The measures for seismic hazard mitigation are related to many factors, e.g., social, economic, and political. Research focused on modern science and technology paves the way for a better understanding of the earthquake phenomenon and helps to plan against its effects in seismically active areas.In this paper, we consider some of the events that occurred in earthquake-prone countries, both developing and developed, which caused devastation to the society and economy. These are mainly major events that have affected a considerable portion of the gross domestic product of these economies.Measures to mitigate seismic hazard are stressed and suggested. In addition, experiences in seismic hazard mitigation in Uganda and the rest of the world are discussed in general terms. Attention is given to geotectonic settings as well as the work of seismic hazard and disaster mana     

Application of the predictable model of regional time-magnitude to North and Southwest China region

In this paper, the method which can combine different seismic data with the different precision and completeness, even the palaeo-earthquake data, has been applied to estimate the yearly seismic moment rate in the seismic region. Based on this, the predictable model of regional time-magnitude has been used in North China and Southwest China. The normal correlation between the time interval of the events and the magnitude of the last strong earthquake shows that the model is suitable. The value of the parameter c is less than the average value of 0.33 that is obtained from the events occurred in the plate boundary in the world. It is explained that the correlativity between the recurrence interval of the earthquake and the magnitude of the last strong event is not obvious. It is shown that the continental earthquakes in China are different from that occurred in the plate boundary and the recurrence model for the continental events are different from the one for the plate boundary events. Finally the seismic risk analysis based on this model for North China and Southwest China is given in this paper.     

Preliminary Study on Probabilistic Prediction of Seismic Hazard in a Period of 10 Years

Many uncertainty factors need be dealt with in the prediction of seismic hazard for a 10-year period.Restricted by these uncertainties,the result of prediction is also uncertain to a certain extent,so the probabilistic analysis method of seismic hazard should be adopted.In consideration of the inhomogeneity of the time,location,and magnitude of future earthquakes and the probabilistic combination of the background of long-term seismic hazard(geology,geophysical field,etc.)and the precursors of earthquake occurrence,a model of probabilistic prediction of seismic hazard in a period of 10 years s proposed.Considering the inhomogeneity of data and earthquake precursors for different regions in China,a simplified model is also proposed in order to satisfy the needs of different regions around the country.A trial in North China is used to discuss the application of the model.The method proposed in this paper can be used in the probabilistic prediction of seismic hazard in a period of 10 years.According to the     

新疆全区和分区地壳速度模型的分析

In this paper, we firstly analyze the ＂3,400 travel time table＂ used for a long time in Xinjiang Seismological Network to obtain the velocity structure models in accord with the table by fitting. Then we fit the velocity of all seismic phases recorded in Xinjiang region in January 2009 ~ December 2013. Simulation analysis is done on the reliability and stability of the velocities, and a concept is proposed for building subarea crustal velocity models according to partitioning of seismic cluster regions. The crustal velocity model suitable for the Yutian area is fitted with the data of all phases of seismic events within a radius of 1 ° around the 2014 Yutian Ms7. 3 earthquake since January 2009, and the model is applied to the relocation of the Yutian Ms7. 3 earthquake and determination of focal depths of the earthquake sequence.     

Statistical Research on S-Wave Incident Angle

In this paper,the following assumptions are made:1) seismic source is a point one;2) the near-fieid.seismic waves are body ones:3) the medium of the earth is a half-space which is homogeneous and elastic.Yccording to the above-mentioned assumptions,this paper obtains a theoretical formula to estimate S-wave incident angle by using the record of strong ground motion.During the process of calculations,the paper also presents a method of getting in-plane and inti-plane motions from the record of strong ground motion.By making use of 214 records of strong ground motion in the western America,this paper gives a statistical relation among S-wave incident angle,epicentral distance and frequency.The results show that the average value of S-wave incident angle is about 57,and has little to do with the epicentral distance.     

The Natural Probability Distribution of Load and Unload Response Ratio

In this paper,the Gutenberg-Richter model is used to generate seismic events.The events that satisfy the random distribution are also generated.With those events,the natural probability distribution of Load and Unload Response Ratio(LURR),which measures quantitatively the degree of instability of a nonlinear system,is discussed.The study is based on stress energy release,which is chosen as the response of nonlinear system F3.The comparative results from the observation catalogue and generating data are also studied.It is revealed that the natural probability of LURR is mostly stable when the sample number is sufficient.The lower the natural probability of LURR,the more the precursory is information it may contain.The influence of Y3 resulting from the sample number and the magnitude range of events is also discussed.     

Seismic Network,Seismic Activity and Seismological Research of Vietnam

In this paper,a historical review of the seismic network of Vietnam and the ability of the network to monitor earthquakes is presented.The seismic activity of Vietnam as a country of high seismictiy in the last century and since the beginning of the new century is described.The current state of seismological research in Vietnam and cooperation with institutions outside of Vietnam is outlined.     

关于公元649年临汾地震的讨论

唐贞观２３年８月癸酉（公元６４９年９月１２日）河东（黄河以东,今山西省境）地震,晋州（治临汾,今临汾市）尤甚。对此次地震事件的烈度等一直存在不同看法。     

A) A. I. H. S. / A) I. A. S. H.

Abstract

In the Southwestern intermountain and high plains areas, precipitation is seasonal, with the major part of the rainfall occurring in the summer. Most winter precipitation occurs as low-intensity rain or snow along slow-moving cold fronts. Most summer precipitation occurs as short-duration, high-intensity thunderstorms from purely convective buildup or from convective cells developing along a weak fast-moving cold front. Almost all runoff occurs from the summer convective storms.

Since runoff-producing precipitation is of primary interest at the Southwest Watershed Research Center, Agricultural Research Service, Tucson, Arizona, the convective storms have been most thoroughly analyzed. Duration, intensity, areal extent, movement, character, and return frequencies for varying volumes and intensities of these convective storms are analyzed from records from dense networks of recording rain gages in four study areas in Arizona and New Mexico. The primary study areas are the 58-square-mile Walnut Gulch Experimental Watershed at Tombstone, Arizona, and the 67-squaremile Alamogordo Creek Watershed near Santa Rosa, New Mexico. Three “record” storms of differing character occurring in 1960 and 1961 on Alamogordo Creek Watershed and one “record” storm in 1961 on the Wlanut Gulch Watershed are analyzed and compared in detail.     

A) A. I. H. S. / A) A. I. H. S.

Abstract

A new method is presented to generate stationary multi-site hydrological time series. The proposed method can handle flexible time-step length, and it can be applied to both continuous and intermittent input series. The algorithm is a departure from standard decomposition models and the Box-Jenkins approach. It relies instead on the recent advances in statistical science that deal with generation of correlated random variables with arbitrary statistical distribution functions. The proposed method has been tested on 11 historic weekly input series, of which the first seven contain flow data and the last four have precipitation data. The article contains an extensive review of the results.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis

Citation Ilich, N., 2014. An effective three-step algorithm for multi-site generation of stochastic weekly hydrological time series. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (1), 85–98.     

A) A. I. H. S. / A) I. A. S. H.

SUMMARY

Basing their studies on an extended Reynolds principle of similarity, the authors present in this paper a thorough theoretical investigation of the turbulent flow in pipes.

Making appropriate assumptions regarding the distribution of the turbulent apparent viscosity over the entire pipe diameter, the well-known discharge formulas, i. e. the resistance laws, of Prandtl-V. Kármán for the hydraulically smooth and the hydraulically rough region, and of Colebrook for the transition region—the accuracy of these being well established by measurements—can be clearly shown to be correct.

Thus it is also possible to determine the velocity distribution in the region near the wall for the hydraulically smooth region and the transition region, as well as for the hydraulically rough region.

The concept, that the flow with a fully developed roughness effect begins when the laminar boundary layer at the wall disappears can be seen to be in close agreement with the asssumptions made. The limits which were established for the hydraulically rough region and the transition region correspond well with the curve plotted by PRANDTL and the boundary curve of Rouse.