Long-term variations in surface air pressure and surface air temperature in the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes

The spatiotemporal variability of surface air pressure and surface air temperature in the Northern Hemisphere troposphere in 1990-2014 is described. In 2005 the low-frequency component (LFC) of average air temperature in January averaged over the latitude zone of 32.5°-67.5° N has stopped its increase that lasted for 35 years (from 1970). The LFC of air temperature in July has continued growing since 1975 (for 39 years). The anomalies of air pressure and air temperature for thirty-year periods and the dynamics of LFC of air temperature and air pressure in the atmospheric centers of action are analyzed.     

Winter climatology of upper-level frontal zones in the Northern Hemisphere

Average long-term fields of geopotential gradients in the middle and upper troposphere and temperature gradients and geopotential Laplacian in the middle troposphere in the Northern Hemisphere in winter are analyzed. Based on the analysis of the distribution of the maximum values of gradients, the average long-term position of upper-level frontal zones and their axial lines was determined. Their spatial distribution is analyzed from the point of view of interaction between thermobaric fields over different regions of the globe. Average long-term parameters of upper-level frontal zones in the middle troposphere are presented. Average long-term fields of wind speed in the middle and upper troposphere are investigated. It is demonstrated that the zones of the maximum values of wind speed agree well with the position of separated upper-level frontal zones.     

Signature of the Antarctic oscillation in the northern hemisphere

Using the ECWMF daily reanalysis data, this paper investigates signatures of the Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) in the upper troposphere of the northern hemisphere. It is found that during boreal winter, a positive (negative) phase of the AAO is associated with anomalous easterlies (westerlies) in middle-low latitudes (~30–40°N) and anomalous westerlies (easterlies) in middle-high latitudes (~45–65°N) of the upper troposphere about 25–40 days later. While there is also a response in zonal wind in the tropics, namely over the central-eastern Pacific, to some extent, these tropical zonal wind anomalies can trigger a Pacific/North American teleconnection patterns (PNA)-like quasi-stationary Rossby waves that propagate into the Northern Hemisphere and gradually evolve into patterns which resemble North Atlantic teleconnection patterns. Furthermore, these quasi-stationary Rossby waves might give rise to anomalous eddy momentum flux convergence and divergence to accelerate anomalous zonal winds in the Northern Hemisphere.     

Analysis of the coupling between the stratospheric meridional wind and the surface level zonal wind during 1979–93 Northern Hemisphere extratropical winters

The coupling between the stratosphere and the troposphere has been investigated by analysing low-frequency variations in: (1) the meridional mass flux into the polar cap (north of 60°N), computed separately for the stratosphere and the troposphere; (2) the polar cap mean surface pressure, and (3) the surface level meridional pressure gradient and zonal wind around 60°N. The analysis has been done for the 1979–93 Northern Hemisphere (NH) winters, using ECMWF reanalysis data. The results show that for all winters the meridional mass flux variations in the stratosphere precede those in the troposphere, by about one day. This result can also be obtained qualitatively with a very simple model, based on the zonally averaged zonal and meridional momentum equations. The lag is not very sensitive to the latitude of the southern boundary of the polar cap. The analysed variations in the polar cap mean surface pressure associated with variations in the meridional mass flux, determine most of the variability in the analysed meridional surface pressure gradient and the associated surface zonal wind around 60°N. The results also show that in the stratosphere the Coriolis force associated with the zonal-mean meridional wind is in near-balance with the convergence of the eddy momentum flux, and in the lower troposphere with the zonal frictional force. In summary, the results indicate that in the extratropical northern winter hemisphere, low-frequency variations in the meridional wind in the stratosphere induce low-frequency variations in the zonal wind near the surface.     

Stratospheric climate and variability from a general circulation model and observations

The climate and natural variability of the large-scale stratospheric circulation simulated by a newly developed general circulation model are evaluated against available global observations. The simulation consisted of a 30-year annual cycle integration performed with a comprehensive model of the troposphere and stratosphere. The observations consisted of a 15-year dataset from global operational analyses of the troposphere and stratosphere. The model evaluation concentrates on the simulation of the evolution of the extratropical stratospheric circulation in both hemispheres. The December–February climatology of the observed zonal mean winter circulation is found to be reasonably well captured by the model, although in the Northern Hemisphere upper stratosphere the simulated westerly winds are systematically stronger and a cold bias is apparent in the polar stratosphere. This Northern Hemisphere stratospheric cold bias virtually disappears during spring (March–May), consistent with a realistic simulation of the spring weakening of the mean westerly winds in the model. A considerable amount of monthly interannual variability is also found in the simulation in the Northern Hemisphere in late winter and early spring. The simulated interannual variability is predominantly caused by polar warmings of the stratosphere, in agreement with observations. The breakdown of the Northern Hemisphere stratospheric polar vortex appears therefore to occur in a realistic way in the model. However, in early winter the model severely underestimates the interannual variability, especially in the upper troposphere. The Southern Hemisphere winter (June–August) zonal mean temperature is systematically colder in the model, and the simulated winds are somewhat too strong in the upper stratosphere. Contrary to the results for the Northern Hemisphere spring, this model cold bias worsens during the Southern Hemisphere spring (September–November). Significant discrepancies between the model results and the observations are therefore found during the breakdown of the Southern Hemisphere polar vortex. For instance, the simulated Southern Hemisphere stratosphere westerly jet continuously decreases in intensity more or less in situ from June to November, while the observed stratospheric jet moves downward and poleward.This paper was presented at the Third International Conference on Modelling of Global Climate Change and Variability, held in Hamburg 4–8 Sept. 1995 under the auspice of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg. Editor for these papers is L. Dümenil.     

Climate Change in the Subtropical Jetstream during 1950–2009

A study of six decades(1950–2009) of reanalysis data reveals that the subtropical jetstream(STJ) of the Southern(Northern) Hemisphere between longitudes 0°E and 180°E has weakened(strengthened) during both the boreal winter(January,February) and summer(July, August) seasons. The temperature of the upper troposphere of the midlatitudes has a warming trend in the Southern Hemisphere and a cooling trend in the Northern Hemisphere. Correspondingly, the north–south temperature gradient in the upper troposphere has a decreasing trend in the Southern Hemisphere and an increasing trend in the Northern Hemisphere, which affects the strength of the STJ through the thermal wind relation. We devised a method of isotach analysis in intervals of 0.1 m s-1in vertical sections of hemispheric mean winds to study the climate change in the STJ core wind speed, and also core height and latitude. We found that the upper tropospheric cooling of the Asian mid-latitudes has a role in the strengthening of the STJ over Asia, while throughout the rest of the globe the upper troposphere has a warming trend that weakens the STJ. Available studies show that the mid-latitude cooling of the upper troposphere over Asia is caused by anthropogenic aerosols(particularly sulphate aerosols) and the warming over the rest of the global mid-latitude upper troposphere is due to increased greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.     

北半球冬季中纬度位势高度场的季节内振荡

利用1979—2012年逐日NCEP/DOE再分析资料,分析北半球中纬度冬季(11月1日—4月30日)对流层位势高度的季节内振荡特征。结果表明:对流层上层位势高度的季节内变化强度较中下层更强,中心主要位于太平洋和大西洋上空;对流层上层位势高度场主要为1~3波的超长波形势,功率谱分析结果表明其时间序列呈现显著的季节内振荡(10~60 d)特征;10~60 d滤波的位势高度异常空间分布与原异常场一致,位势高度季节内振荡随时间主要表现为向西传播的特征,尤其表现在北太平洋上空,而亚欧大陆更为复杂一些;亚洲冬季风对北半球中纬度位势高度的季节内振荡有响应,主要表现为蒙古高压位置和强度的异常,继而对我国冬季气温产生影响。     

A study on the decreasing trend in tropical easterly jet stream (TEJ) and its impact on Indian summer monsoon rainfall

Using the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis wind and temperature data (1948–2011) and India Meteorological Department (IMD) rainfall data, a long-term trend in the tropical easterly jet stream and its effect on Indian summer monsoon rainfall has been explained in the present study. A decreasing trend in zonal wind speed at 100 mb (maximum decrease), 150 mb, and 200 mb (minimum) is observed. The upper-level (100, 150, and 200 mb) zonal wind speed has been correlated with the surface air temperature anomaly index (ATAI) in the month of May, which is taken as the difference in temperature anomaly over land (22.5°N–27.5°N, 80°E–90°E) and Ocean (5°S–0°S, 75°E–85°E). Significant high correlation is observed between May ATAI and tropical easterly jet stream (TEJ) which suggests that the decreasing land–sea temperature contrast could be one major reason behind the decreasing trend in TEJ. The analysis of spatial distribution of rainfall over India shows a decreasing trend in rainfall over Jammu and Kashmir, Arunachal Pradesh, central Indian region, and western coast of India. Increasing trend in rainfall is observed over south peninsular and northeastern part of India. From the spatial correlation analysis of zonal wind with gridded rainfall, it is observed that the correlation of rainfall is found to be high with the TEJ speed over the regions where the decreasing trend in rainfall is observed. Similarly, from the analysis of spatial correlation between rainfall and May ATAI, positive spatial correlation is observed between May ATAI and summer monsoon rainfall over the regions such as south peninsular India where the rainfall trend is positive, and negative correlation is observed over the places such as Jammu and Kashmir where negative rainfall trend is observed. The decreased land–sea temperature contrast in the pre-monsoon month could be one major reason behind the decreased trend in TEJ as well as the observed spatial variation in the summer monsoon rainfall trend. Thus, the study explained the long-term trend in TEJ and its relation with May month temperature over the Indian Ocean and land region and its effect on the trend and spatial distribution of Indian summer monsoon rainfall.     

Drift of icebergs and ice fields in the northeastern part of the Barents Sea

Considered is the drift of 10 icebergs and 18 ice fields in the northeastern part of the Barents Sea from late May to September 2009. The drift speed is estimated by GPS measurements of geographic coordinates, and the wind, using the air pressure field. The drift variability in the range of synoptic and intraseasonal variability is analyzed by the vector-algebraic method based on the model of the random Euclidean vector. The conjugacy of the drift with the wind is represented by the indices of vector regression (the theory of A.M. Obukhov) and vector correlation. Ice fields differ from icebergs by the high velocities of drift, significant variability, and higher correlation with the wind (0.85–0.99 for fields and 0.78–0.91 for icebergs). The wind and nonwind components of the drift are singled out by the Watanabe-Gudkovich correlation method. Wind coefficients and angles of deviation for the wind drift component amounted to 0.016–0.023 and ?6°…+9° for fields and 0.010–0.015 and 10°–15° for icebergs. The cyclonic circulation is developed in the area of permanent surface currents (of the nonwind nature).     

20世纪90年代末东亚冬季风年代际变化特征及其内动力成因

为纪念陶诗言先生对东亚冬季风研究的杰出贡献,本文利用我国测站、NCEP/NCAR和ERA-40/ERA-Interim再分析资料分析了我国冬季气温和东亚冬季风在20世纪90年代末所发生的年代际跃变特征及其内动力成因。分析结果表明:从20世纪90年代末之后,我国冬季气温和东亚冬季风发生了明显的年代际跃变。从1999年之后,随着东亚冬季风从偏弱变偏强,我国冬季气温变化从全国一致变化型变成南北振荡型（即北冷南暖型）,并由于从1999年之后我国北方冬季气温从偏高变成偏低,故冬季低温雪暴冰冻灾害频繁发生,同时,我国冬季气温和东亚冬季风年际变化在此时期从以往3～4 a周期年际变化变成2～8 a周期;并且,结果还表明了东亚冬季风此次年代际变化是由于西伯利亚高压和阿留申低压的加强所致。本文还从北极涛动（AO）和北半球准定常行星波活动的动力理论进一步讨论了此次东亚冬季风年代际跃变的内动力成因及其机理,结果表明:从20世纪90年代末之后,北半球冬季准定常行星波在高纬地区沿极地波导传播到平流层加强,而沿低纬波导传播到副热带对流层上层减弱,这造成了行星波E-P通量在高纬度地区对流层和平流层辐合加强,而在副热带地区对流层中、上层辐散加强,因而导致了北半球高纬度地区从对流层到平流层纬向平均纬向流和欧亚上空极锋急流减弱,而副热带急流加强,这造成了AO减弱和东亚冬季风加强。     

Quasi-periodic imprints in the equatorial troposphere and stratosphere in three decades of reanalysis data

Wavelet analysis is applied to zonal mean zonal wind and temperature fields to represent characteristics of temporal periodic features different from the annual and semi-annual recurrence in the troposphere and stratosphere. A daily database of reanalyses is used for the period 1979–2008, which comprises the era of satellite-based data, as some discontinuities have been observed around 1978 in previous studies. Levels for this study have been chosen at 400 and 10 hPa, respectively in the middle troposphere and middle stratosphere. As representative for diverse latitudinal regions we have respectively selected 0°, ±20°, ±40°, ±60°, ±80°. Significant features were only found at the equator. The period of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is found to exhibit a decreasing trend in time over the 30 years studied. Potential harmonics of the QBO are found in the tropical stratosphere but also troposphere. However, they do not exhibit the same tendency. This fact supports in particular the idea that the QBO and the tropospheric biennial oscillation may be unrelated phenomena. Some of the observed features lie within the known range of variability of the El Niño Southern Oscillation. Faint effects of the 11-year solar cycle variability may have been observed in the troposphere and stratosphere, but no firm assertion may be made due to the low number of observed cycles for this kind of phenomenon in the used data-set time span. Short-term solar variabilities leave no relevant imprint.     

北极涛动的年代际变化及其气候影响

北极涛动(Arctic Oscillation,AO)是北半球热带外地区大气环流变率的主导模态,对北半球以及区域尺度气温变化具有重要影响.AO可在没有外强迫条件下通过d波流相互作用形成,因此它被认为是全球气候系统内部变率的重要组成部分.研究年代际尺度上AO的变化及其气候影响,可加深对当前北半球气候变化规律的物理理解,也...     

近50年中国大陆冬季气温和区域环流的年代际变化研究

利用中国大陆468 个站点1960～2013 年逐日气温资料,本文首先对中国冬季气温的年代际变化特征进行分析。通过气候跃变检验分析发现,中国冬季气温在整体变暖的趋势上叠加有年代际波动,可划分为冷期、暖期和停滞期三个时期。本文对比三个时期的冬季大气环流发现,冷/停滞期（暖）期西风环流减弱（增强）而东亚大槽增强（浅薄）,槽后的辐合下沉增强（削弱）,西伯利亚高压增强（减弱）,这加强（削弱）了东亚冬季风,冷空气更多（少）侵入中国大陆地区,冬季气温偏低（高）。北半球环状模/北极涛动（Northern Hemisphere Annular Mode,NAM/Arctic Oscillation,AO）正是通过东亚冬季风系统对中国冬季气温,尤其是冬季最低气温有很强的年代际影响。太平洋年代际振荡（Pacific Decadal Oscillation,PDO）与中国冬季气温在年代际上也有很好的正相关关系。进一步将PDO 的年代际变化分量作为背景,分析NAM/AO 和厄尔尼诺—南方涛动（El Nino Southern Oscillation,ENSO）不同配置下的东亚冬季风环流场可以发现,两者的配置作用不仅影响着中国冬季气温一致变化型的年代际波动,而且也可以影响到冬季气温南北反相振荡型的变化,这从一个方面解释了1980 年代和1990年代北方变暖较强及最近十年北方降温趋势较为明显的原因。     

Dust Storms in North China in 2002： A Case Study of the Low Frequency Oscillation

The low frequency oscillation in both hemispheres and its possible role in the dust weather storm events over North China in 2002 are analyzed as a case study. Results show that the Aleutian Low is linked with the Circumpolar Vortex in the Southern Hemisphere on a 30-60-day oscillation, with a weak Circumpolar Vortex tending to deepen the Aleutian Low which may be helpful for the generation of dust storm events. The possible mechanism behind this is the inter-hemispheric interaction of the mean meridional circulation, with the major variability over East Asia. The zonal mean westerly wind at high latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere in the upper level troposphere may lead that of the Northern Hemisphere, which then impacts the local circulation in the Northern Hemisphere. Thus, the low frequency oscillation teleconnection is one possible linkage in the coupling between the Southern Hemisphere circulation and dust events over North China. However, the interannual variation of the low frequency oscillation is unclear.     

夏季亚洲-太平洋涛动的耦合模式模拟

亚洲-太平洋涛动是夏季欧亚大陆东部(15°—50°N,60°—120°E)与北太平洋上空(15°—50°N,180°—120°W)温度场反相变化的现象。亚洲-太平洋涛动指数由对流层上层(500—200 hPa)温度定义,反映了亚洲-太平洋纬向热力差异。基于一个全球海-气耦合模式FGOALS_gl的20世纪气候模拟试验结果,讨论了其对20世纪亚洲-太平洋涛动指数变化的模拟能力。结果表明,较之ERA-40再分析资料(1960—1999年),模式很好地刻画出上层温度场的平均态和主导模态的空间型。从趋势上看,模式对北太平洋上空温度的年代际变化和趋势模拟较好,但未能模拟出亚洲东部陆地上空的降温趋势。从频谱分析结果看,模拟的亚洲-太平洋涛动指数2—3,a的年际变率与再分析资料相当,5-7 a周期的变率较弱。模式能够较好地模拟出与亚洲-太平洋涛动指数相关的亚洲季风区气候异常。在20世纪模拟中,外强迫因子会改变耦合系统的年际变率,在自然因子强迫下亚洲-太平洋涛动指数的功率谱向低频方向增强,人为强迫因子的作用则相反。自然强迫因子和人为强迫因子在不同时期对亚洲-太平洋涛动年际和年代际变率的作用不同。在年际变率中人为强迫因子能够控制亚洲-太平洋涛动的变率使其不致过大;在年代际变率中人为强迫因子会增强自然强迫下亚洲-太平洋涛动的变率。模式上层温度的主导模态受ENSO调制,可能影响亚洲-太平洋涛动的年际变率。因此,模式对ENSO模拟能力的缺陷是制约模式对流层上层温度及亚洲-太平洋涛动指数变率的重要因素。     

Arctic Climate Changes Based on Historical Simulations (1900‒2013) with the CAMS-CSM

The Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences Climate System Model (CAMS-CSM) is a newly developed global climate model that will participate in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6. Based on historical simulations (1900?2013), we evaluate the model performance in simulating the observed characteristics of the Arctic climate system, which includes air temperature, precipitation, the Arctic Oscillation (AO), ocean temperature/salinity, the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), snow cover, and sea ice. The model?data comparisons indicate that the CAMS-CSM reproduces spatial patterns of climatological mean air temperature over the Arctic (60°?90°N) and a rapid warming trend from 1979 to 2013. However, the warming trend is overestimated south of the Arctic Circle, implying a subdued Arctic amplification. The distribution of climatological precipitation in the Arctic is broadly captured in the model, whereas it shows limited skills in depicting the overall increasing trend. The AO can be reproduced by the CAMS-CSM in terms of reasonable patterns and variability. Regarding the ocean simulation, the model underestimates the AMOC and zonally averaged ocean temperatures and salinity above a depth of 500 m, and it fails to reproduce the observed increasing trend in the upper ocean heat content in the Arctic. The large-scale distribution of the snow cover extent (SCE) in the Northern Hemisphere and the overall decreasing trend in the spring SCE are captured by the CAMS-CSM, while the biased magnitudes exist. Due to the underestimation of the AMOC and the poor quantification of air–sea interaction, the CAMS-CSM overestimates regional sea ice and underestimates the observed decreasing trend in Arctic sea–ice area in September. Overall, the CAMS-CSM reproduces a climatological distribution of the Arctic climate system and general trends from 1979 to 2013 compared with the observations, but it shows limited skills in modeling local trends and interannual variability.     

北半球对流层厚度的时空变化特征

利用1948—2010年NCEP/NCAR逐月位势高度再分析资料、美国国家海洋局提供的1948—2010年逐月海温再分析资料,分别定义了1 000—500 hPa和500—200 hPa厚度,利用EOF、SVD等方法研究了北半球对流层厚度时空演变特征及其与大气环流和海面温度的关系。结果表明,冬季平均厚度EOF第一模态均具有北太平洋及附近高纬度亚洲大陆地区与北美大陆高纬地区反位相变化的特点,而夏季第一模态则是北半球范围内较一致的位相分布;冬、夏季平均厚度EOF第二模态均突出体现了欧亚大陆及附近地区与北半球其他地区反位相变化的特点;冬、夏季厚度场的变化形势与大气环流及海面温度具有密切联系。     

Distribution,speciation, and budget of atmospheric mercury

Total gaseous mercury (TGM) concentrations over the Atlantic Ocean and over Central Europe were measured repeatedly in the years 1978–1981. The latitudinal TGM distribution showed a pronounced and reproducible interhemispherical difference with higher TGM concentrations in the Northern Hemisphere. TGM was found to be vertically well mixed within the troposphere. The TGM concentration seems to increase with time at a rate of 10±8%/yr in the Northern and 8±3%/yr in the Southern Hemisphere. Measurements of mercury speciation showed that elemental mercury is the main TGM component contributing more than 92% and 83% of TGM in marine and continental air, respectively. The tropospheric mercury burden was calculated to be 6×10⁹g. The interhemispheric distribution and temporal and spatial variability of TGM imply a tropospheric residence time of TGM of about 1 yr. Sink strengths calculated independently from the measured mercury concentration on particles and in rainwater are consistent with the above figures.     

Physical processes responsible for the interannual variability of sea ice concentration in Arctic in boreal autumn since 1979

Arctic sea ice concentration (ASIC) in boreal autumn exhibits prominent interannual variability since 1979. The physical mechanism responsible for the year-to-year variation of ASIC is investigated through observational data analyses and idealized numerical modeling. It is found that the ASIC interannual variability is closely associated with the anomalous meridional circulations over the Northern Hemisphere, which is further linked with the tropical sea surface temperature (SST) forcing. A tropics-wide SST cooling anomaly leads to an enhanced meridional SST gradient to the north of the equator in boreal summer, generating strengthened and northward shifting Hadley circulation over the Northern Hemisphere. Consequently, the meridional circulations are enhanced and pushed poleward, leading to an enhanced descending motion at the North Pole, surrounded by an ascending motion anomaly; the surface outflow turns into easterly anomalies, opposing the mean-state winds. As a result, positive cloudiness and weakened surface wind speed emerge, which reduce ASIC through changes in the surface latent heat flux and the downward longwave radiation.     

北半球中高纬度低频振荡对2012/2013年冬季中国东北极端低温事件的影响

利用NCEP/DOE的逐日再分析资料和国家气象信息中心的常规观测站温度资料,首先分析了2012/2013年冬季中国东北区域极端低温事件过程中区域平均温度的低频振荡变化特征,然后分析了北半球中高纬度对流低层和中层低频环流系统配置的变化及其与东北地区强冷空气活动过程的联系,最后进一步研究了中高纬度低频环流系统的传播特征及其对温度变化的影响。主要结果有:（1）2012/2013年冬季东北区域平均温度存在很强的30～60 d的周期振荡特征,同时伴随较强的10～30 d低频振荡,后者与实际降温过程对应关系更好;（2）对10～30 d的低频振荡而言,在东北地区低频温度变化降低最大的位相7（位相3升高最大）,500 hPa上,我国东部地区正好处于贝加尔湖地区的低频高压（低压）环流和日本海的低频低压（高压）环流型之间的低频偏北（偏南）的较强引导气流中;同时在850 hPa上,我国东部从东北到南海都是较强的偏北（偏南）低频风控制,这使得东亚冬季风环流系统加强（被抑制）,东北区域则经历一次大幅度的低频温度降低（升高）过程,这些高低空低频环流系统的配置和演变导致了2012/2013年冬季一次次强（或较强）的冷空气沿偏东偏北的路径影响我国东北地区,并导致极端低温事件的出现;（3）沿着乌拉尔山-贝加尔湖-我国东北地区-西北太平洋传播的500 hPa低频波列,是驱动2012/2013年冬季东亚冬季风低频振荡和我国东北地区极端低温事件的环流系统。