农户生计对气候变化的恢复力研究综述

随着气候变化对自然生态环境和社会经济可持续发展影响的不断加剧,恢复力逐渐成为应对气候变化的一种新理念。首先梳理了不同领域恢复力概念,进而阐述了农户生计对气候变化的恢复力的科学内涵及研究框架。然后重点分析了农户生计对气候变化的恢复力在资本、政府机构、自组织能力和学习能力四方面的具体表现。最后从定性和定量两方面归纳了生计恢复力的度量方法。定性评价方法主要包括农户问卷调查、关键线人访谈、重点小组讨论、生计轨迹方法和案例分析等,定量评价方法包括指标替代法、结构动力学分析法、贝叶斯网络模型法、基准线对比法等。未来研究应注重完善农户生计对气候变化的恢复力评价方法、加强农户生计对气候变化的恢复力动态研究并且开展区域间农户生计对气候变化的恢复力对比研究。     

中国南方调整水稻种植格局——一种水稻生产预先适应气候变化的选择(英文)

Rice planted in southern China accounts for 94% of the total in sown acreage and 88% of the total in production, which matters a lot to Chinese food security. However, due to the prolonged conflict between water availability and rice growth in spatial/temporal distribu-tion, rice production suffers from seasonal drought at acreage of 16%-22%, which compro-mises food production capacity and food security. Focusing on the spatial distribution of seasonal drought with rice and the practices to adapt to it, and based on an analysis of bal-anced water supply for and demand by rice at a growing season scale during 1981-2030, this paper assesses the changing seasonal drought in the process of rice production under the changing climate in the future, and identifies general rice re-cultivation options for climate change adaptation. Some conclusions can be drawn as follows. (1) Rice suggests a decline in seasonal drought, with early season rice (early rice hereafter) by 12,500 km2, middle season rice (middle rice) by 80,000 km2, and in particular late season rice (late rice) by 25,000 km2, which accounts for almost 20% of its cultivated acreage. It is indicated that due to climate change, seasonal drought in major rice producing areas tends to alleviate in general, late season rice in particular. (2) Future climate change brings about a significant impact on the spatial/temporal distribution of water resources in rice producing areas in China. Based on ’pre-designed’ adaptation actions for rice-re-cultivation, the rice cultivation pattern undergoes a significant alteration between 1981-2000 and 2001-2030. In eastern Guizhou and western Hunan, the pattern of single early plus single dry farming is changed into double cropping. In eastern Hunan, the pattern of dry cropping is changed into single early plus single dry farming. In northern Anhui, the pattern of dry farming cropping is changed into middle rice. All this is aimed at a potential adequate availability of water for rice production in the future. (3) Rice re-cultivation patterns developed in this paper help re-balance water demand and supply for rice growth using the spatial analysis tool to adapt rice growth to the changing water avail-ability from spatial perspective, and come up with rice producer-friendly re-cultivation options in response to climate change.     

Community resilience,natural hazards,and climate change: Is the present a prologue to the future?

ABSTRACT

The nexus of natural hazards, climate change, and community resilience poses both conceptual and methodological challenges. One key consideration is the underlying notion of dynamic change or transformation in the systems that affect community resilience—social systems, natural systems, technological systems—and the degree to which the interdependencies influence who is resilient, to what, where, and to whom. The article examines community resilience from the broad perspective of affluent societies and illustrates the considerable variability in both the temporal and spatial nature of community resilience to natural hazards in the short term, and climate changes in the longer term, especially in more affluent societies. The author finds that, given the rapidity of environmental, social, economic, political, technological, and cultural changes, present circumstances and remedies may not be adequate predictors or precursors of future conditions. She concludes that the challenges associated with community resilience, natural hazards, and climate change require transformational thinking and action if achievements are to be made in terms of significant disaster risk reduction and any semblance of a sustainable future when extreme weather events will be the norm, not the exception.     

Climate change effects at your doorstep: Geographic visualization to support Nordic homeowners in adapting to climate change

The complexity of climate information, particularly as related to climate scenarios, impacts, and action alternatives, poses significant challenges for science communication. This study presents a geographic visualization approach involving lay audiences to address these challenges. VisAdapt™ is a web-based visualization tool designed to improve Nordic homeowners’ understanding of climate change vulnerability and to support their adaptive actions. VisAdapt is structured to enable individual users to explore several climate change impact parameters, including temperature and precipitation, for their locations and to find information on specific adaptation measures for their house types and locations. The process of testing the tool included a focus group study with homeowners in Norway, Denmark, and Sweden to assess key challenges in geographic visualization, such as the level of interactivity and information. The paper concludes that geographic visualization tools can support homeowners’ climate adaptation processes, but that certain features, such as downscaled climate information are a key element expected by users. Although the assessment of interactivity and data varied both across countries and user experience, a general conclusion is that a geographic visualization tool, like VisAdapt, can make climate change effects and adaptation alternatives tangible and initiate discussions and collaborative reflections.     

气候变化对成都桃花观赏旅游的影响与人类适应行为

基于中国物候观测网14年桃花盛花期数据,1987-2014年四川历年报纸100余条桃花节日期记录,以及1987-2013年研究区月均温数据,采用小波分析,相关分析等方法评估了气候变化对桃花观赏旅游的影响.结果表明:研究区气候变化显著,物候期对气候变化高度敏感,桃花盛花期前三个月和前一个月温度升高1℃,盛花期分别提前6.47天和4.16天.桃花节开幕日期与温度变化趋势及周期对比,两者相关分析发现,过去近30年,成都桃花节组织者通常会根据温度变化调节赏花节开幕日期,但2000-2008年更多的是将节日安排在周末.研究证明气候变化已通过改变植物花期,对赏花旅游产生了影响.管理部门调节节庆日期的方式是赏花旅游适应气候变化影响的有效策略.研究可为评估气候变化对其他时令旅游活动的影响提供新的视角和方法,也可为中国赏花旅游提出适应气候变化的有效策略提供科学依据.     

Map-Based Web Tools Supporting Climate Change Adaptation

This article discusses the state of the art in geovisualization supporting climate change adaptation. We reviewed twenty selected map-based Web tools, classified by their content and functionality, and assessed them by visual representations, interactive functions, information type, target audience, and how vulnerability and adaptation to climate change are addressed. Our study concludes that the tools (1) can be classified as data viewers with basic functionality and data explorers offering more sophisticated interactive functions; (2) mostly feature moderate or high richness of data content; and (3) predominantly target expert users.     

Gendering Climate Change: Geographical Insights

Although climate change is expected to increase vulnerabilities, marginalization, and sufferings of many in the Global South, impacts will be unevenly felt across social strata. Intersectionalities of social difference, especially along gender and class lines, differentiate the ways in which impacts of climate change are experienced and responded to. Feminist political ecology and feminist geography insights can explain how different groups of people understand, respond to, and cope with variability and uncertainties in nuanced and critical ways, thereby elucidating the gendered implications of climate change. With a regional focus on South Asia, the article underscores the key issues that can be applied geographically elsewhere. Gendered implications of climate change in South Asia are particularly poignant as patriarchal norms, inequities, and inequalities often place women and men in differentiated positions in their abilities to respond to and cope with dramatic changes in socioecological relations but also foreground the complex ways in which social power relations operate in communal responses to adaptation strategies. This is particularly evident in water-related productive and reproductive tasks in agrarian societies that constitute the majority of South Asia. As climate change is expected to exacerbate both ecological degradation (e.g., water shortages) and water-related natural hazards (e.g., floods, cyclones), thereby transforming gender–water geographies, it becomes imperative to undertake careful multiscalar and critical analyses to better inform policymaking. This article elucidates the complex ways that climate change will affect gender and social relations, thereby highlighting the ways that existing policy narratives and adaptation programs might be better informed by geographical insights. To this end, the article encourages feminist and critical geographers to more forcefully and fruitfully engage with global debates on climate change.     

新疆博州地区近46年来的气候变化特征

根据新疆博尔塔拉蒙古自治州(简称博州,下同)四个气象代表站点的气温及降水资料,利用线性趋势函数及t检验法分析了该地区近46年的气候变化。结果表明,博州年平均气温、平均最高气温、平均最低气温均呈上升趋势,而且平均最低气温上升的幅度远大于平均最高气温的上升幅度。年平均气温及年平均最低气温约在20世纪80年代中期出现了显著的均值突变,而年平均最高气温在80年代末出现突变;除春、夏季平均最高气温无明显变化趋势外,其它各季平均气温、平均最高气温、平均最低气温均呈上升趋势,其中均以冬季增幅最大,秋季次之;80年代冬夜升温最强劲,90年代则明显减弱;夏季的平均气温与平均最低气温均在70年代中期出现突变,比其它任何突变时间都早;暖温年多发生在80年代后,冷温年多发生在20世纪60年代、70年代。年降水量略呈上升趋势,少雨年多在60年代、70年代,多雨年多在近20年,除春季外,其余各季降水略有上升趋势。     

A Rising Tide in Bangladesh: livelihood adaptation to climate stress

ABSTRACT

Bangladesh is at the forefront of countries experiencing and debating climate change, despite having contributed little to global emissions, and has the greatest vulnerability to climate change due to inadequate institutional support for the dense population dispersed in low-lying terrain. A micro-level study of livelihoods in the Panpatti Union, a district of the coastal zone exposed to climate stress and an array of other social, economic and political stresses, demonstrated that adaptation strategies to a range of shocks were both reactive and proactive. The persistent nature of shocks, and the limited margins in which to respond, meant that achieving sustainable long-term livelihoods was unusually difficult. Despite cases of dynamism and flexibility, where livelihoods had been effectively diversified, rural people largely failed to reduce their exposure to vulnerability. That was especially true of extremely poor, landless and female-headed households. In such challenging circumstances external interventions were required to ensure sustainable development, but were unlikely because of the isolation of Panpatti and the number of villages and people in similar circumstances. This emphasised the need to develop a more robust livelihoods framework to support the most vulnerable communities in severe economic and environmental contexts where climate change is likely to exacerbate all existing problems.     

Climate change and multi-dimensional sustainable urbanization

Global large-scale urbanization and climate change have become indisputable scientific facts yet are unresolved issues, and are a common concern for mankind. The relationship between these two topics is unclear and it is not known how to deal appropriately at the scientific level with climate change in the process of urbanization. Further exploration of the science, management and practice, are needed to achieve global and regional sustainadevelopment. This paper first considers the basic facts concerning mass urbanization and climate change and summarizes the interactions and possible mechanisms of urbanization and climate change. Urbanization leads to the heat island effect, an uneven distribution of precipitation and extreme weather, together with a local-regional-global multi-scale superposition effect, which aggravates the consequences of global climate change. The impact of climate change on urbanization is mainly manifested in aspects such as changes of energy consumption, mortality, and the spread of infectious diseases, sea level rise, extreme weather damage to infrastructure, and water shortages. This paper also briefly reviews relevant international research programs and action coalitions and puts forward an analysis framework multi-dimensional sustainable urbanization which can adapt to and mitigate climate change, from the perspective of the four key dimensions—population, land use, economy, and society. It is imperative that we strengthen the interdisciplinary activities involving the natural and social sciences, take urbanization and other human activities into consideration of the land-atmosphere system, and explore the human-land-atmosphere coupling process. The adaptation and mitigation from the perspective of human activities, as represented by urbanization, might be the most critical and realistic way to deal with climate change.     

黄土丘陵沟壑区乡村社区恢复力时空演变及影响因素研究——以陕西省米脂县高渠乡为例

乡村人口与土地利用方式变革压力下,构建恢复力已成为保障区域社会—生态系统可持续发展的有效举措。以陕西省米脂县高渠乡为研究区,从社会、经济、制度、生态4个维度,运用熵权TOPSIS法对黄土丘陵沟壑区20个乡村的社区恢复力进行测度,探讨了2015—2019年社区恢复力的时空演变;利用障碍度模型分析了社区恢复力关键影响因子作用机制,并通过比较当前关键影响因子所处维度,将社区划分为不同类型,实现社区的分类治理。结果表明：①（① “四会”指村民议事会、红白理事会、道德评议会、禁毒禁赌会。） 研究期间社区恢复力由0.171提升到0.318,其中经济恢复力上升较为明显,制度、生态恢复力呈小幅提高,而社会恢复力则表现为下降;社区恢复力空间分异更加显著,呈现为“中部高、边缘低”的分布格局。② 研究期末社区恢复力关键影响因素中,经济维度有养殖业发展水平、种植业发展水平、农业产业化带动农户数、农民人均收入;制度维度为基层领导平均受教育年限、公平性管制、村民参与决策机会;社会维度为乡村公共空间比例、流动人口比例;生态维度为“三田”面积占比。③ 通过当前社区恢复力关键影响因子各维度障碍度大小排序,依次识别经济、制度、社会、生态恢复力低值区,最终将高渠乡20个乡村社区划分为3类,结合不同类型乡村社区的特点提出相应对策建议,以期为精准化、差异化管理提供决策参考。     

欧盟气候变化适应政策行动及其启示

在简要介绍气候变化对欧洲的影响、欧盟的气候变化适应举措的基础上,分析了欧盟水资源管理、海洋与渔业、沿海地区、农业、林业、生物多样性、金融与保险、减灾防灾、人类健康等9个重点领域的气候变化适应政策行动;总结了欧盟气候变化适应政策行动的特征：以“自上而下”的政府层面举措与“自下而上”的脆弱经济部门应对策略相结合,采取分阶段的推进方式,并重视相关平台工具的开发应用;最后,结合我国国情和气候变化适应行动现状,提出了我国加强气候变化适应政策行动的建议：及时制定气候变化适应国家战略;加强气候变化适应的科技基础设施与条件平台建设;加快完善气候变化适应的体制机制建设;强化气候变化适应的能力建设。     

从动乱与水旱灾害的关系看清代山东气候变化的区域社会响应与适应

文章分析了清代中后期山东发生动乱与旱涝的时空关系及该时期山东人口、田赋、政策等因素,以期了解气候变化背景下的区域适应行为方式的变化和机制.结果显示:1800～1850年,山东动乱与干旱在时空分布上都呈现较好的对应关系,动乱是封建社会农民对气候变化所采取的一种极端响应方式.随着人地矛盾深化和赋税的日益增重,1870年后动乱与干旱的对应关系反而不再显著,移民作为一种新的适应方式改变了山东省对气候变化的适应机制,减缓了气候变化对动乱的影响.     

气候变化与多维度可持续城市化

全球大规模城市化和气候变化已是不争的事实,这是全人类需要共同面对和关注的突出问题.当前对于两者之间的复杂关系以及城市化进程如何科学应对气候变化并不清晰,从科学、管理到实践都需要进一步加强探究,以实现全球和区域可持续发展.本文首先给出全球大规模城市化和气候变化发生的基本事实,综述归纳城市化与气候变化的相互影响以及可能机制...     

Climate change in the Sanjiang Plain disturbed by large-scale reclamation

1IntroductionIn recent 20 years, Chinese scientists have conducted a lot of studies on characteristics and regularity of climate variation over China on various spatial and temporal scales. Most of the studies using temperature records have shown that the…     

1971年以来珠穆朗玛峰地区气候变化

Global climate change has profound influence on natural ecosystem and socioeconomic system and is a focus which governments, scientific societies as well as common people of various countries have paid much attention to. Observations indicate that there i…     

Climate change in Mt. Qomolangma region since 1971

Using monthly average, maximum, minimum air temperature and monthly precipitation data from 5 weather stations in Mt. Qomolangma region in China from 1971 to 2004, climatic linear trend, moving average, low-pass filter and accumulated variance analysis methods, the spatial and temporal patterns of the climatic change in this region were analyzed. The main findings can be summarized as follows: (1) There is obvious ascending tendency for the interannual change of air temperature in Mt. Qomolangma region and the ascending tendency of Tingri, the highest station, is the most significant. The rate of increasing air temperature is 0.234 oC/decade in Mt. Qomolangma region, 0.302 oC/decade in Tingri. The air temperature increases more strongly in non-growing season. (2) Compared with China and the global average, the warming of Mt. Qomolangma region occurred early. The linear rates of temperature increase in Mt. Qomolangma region exceed those for China and the global average in the same period. This is attributed to the sensitivity of mountainous regions to climate change. (3) The southern and northern parts of Mt. Qomolangma region are quite different in precipitation changes. Stations in the northern part show increasing trends but are not statistically significant. Nyalam in the southern part shows a decreasing trend and the sudden decreasing of precipitation occurred in the early 1990s. (4) Compared with the previous studies, we find that the warming of Mt. Qomolangma high-elevation region is most significant in China in the same period. The highest automatic meteorological comprehensive observation station in the world set up at the base camp of Mt. Qomolangma with a height of 5032 m a.s.l will play an important role in monitoring the global climate change.     

Perceptions of Climate Change and Adaptation Responses in a Local Community: the Barwon Estuary Complex,Victoria

The climate change focus in Australia has shifted from mitigation to adaptation with an emphasis on place-specific case studies. The Barwon Estuary Complex (BEC) on the Bellarine Peninsula, central Victoria, was the focus of this place-specific study in which 37 local stakeholders were consulted through a series of semi-structured interviews on the impacts of climate change on their coastal community. Overall there was uniformity in stakeholder perceptions of the climate change impacts and vulnerabilities pertaining to the BEC. In contrast, discussion on adaptation drew a diversity of responses. While 53 per cent of stakeholders indicated a need to limit the use of hard structures, and rather plan around a changing estuarine environment, opinion amongst the community group was divided. Some believed ‘retreat is the only option’ whilst others felt ‘there won't be much leaving’. The present level of confusion around adaptation highlights the imperative of commencing discussions now to allow sufficient time to develop strategies which are both environmentally and socially responsible. This is important as ultimately it will be the community that will determine whether adaptation strategies are adopted or met with resistance.     

Social capital and community preparation for urban flooding in China

Social capital can enhance community resilience to environmental change. Productive and trusted relations among social actors and effectual social norms can help local residents share resources, information and risks. The main objective of our study is to understand the ways in which social attributes and risk considerations influence adoption of resilient economic measures by individuals for reducing potential losses due to catastrophic rainstorm and flooding. This article provides evidence from China on how social capital contributes to anticipatory adaptation to environmental change. The inquiry is based on structured interviews with local residents of Tianjin, a flood-prone port city in China, and a standard regression analysis. Findings show that the intention to make preparation increases with the levels of social expectation, social relationship, and institutional trust. Perceived risk and damage experience, however, have no significant impacts. This suggests that building social capacity and trust will be more effective in enhancing community resilience than merely increasing awareness of hazard risks. We call for greater efforts on strengthening the capacity of formal and informal communal institutions. The structural changes required, however, are challenging.