国际全球海洋环流预报系统的现状与展望

回顾近年来国外主要海洋预报业务机构全球海洋环流预报技术的发展现状,特别是最近5～10 a来在全球海洋动力数值预报模式和多源资料同化技术方面的主要进展。结合未来相关学科发展的趋势,围绕观测体系建设、数据共享机制、大数据分析等新技术应用等方面提出国内相关研究工作的发展建议。     

建立和完善省级海洋预报公益服务系统的基本设想

我国是海洋灾害频发地区,而且近年来呈上升趋势,严重地制约和影响了海洋经济的发展。因此,防灾、减灾工作应尽快列入海洋工作重要议事日程。 1 目的意义 充分发挥国家海洋公益服务系统的作用,利用好国家海洋局各分局现有人员、设施设备、科技手段等优势,履行地方管理和建设沿海各省的海洋预报服务系统职能,进一步开发和利用海洋,加快海洋经济发展步伐,促进海洋经     

一个基于MOM的全球海洋数值同化预报系统

随着国家战略利益的拓展,国家对全球海洋环境预报保障的需求日益凸显。近年来,国家海洋环境预报中心研发并建立我国首个涵盖全球大洋的"全球海洋数值预报系统",该预报系统由MOM4全球海洋环流模式及三维变分同化系统组成。该系统的建立,实现了全球范围海洋环流预报业务全覆盖,为我国探索深海大洋环境的迫切需求提供有力保障,明显提升了我国海洋环境预报能力,体现了我国海洋数值预报技术的发展和进步。该系统的历史回报试验和业务化试运行结果表明其对全球海洋环境要素具有较好的预报能力,其预测结果已经在实际业务中得到了应用,在"雪龙号"极地遇险脱困、马航MH370失联飞机搜救等重大事件的预报保障任务中发挥了重要作用,为我国实施海洋强国战略,推进实施"21世纪海上丝绸之路"的战略构想,应对海上突发事件、维护国家海洋权益等各个方面提供有力的科技支撑和保障,并成为我国全球海洋预报业务的重要参考依据。     

我国海洋预报减灾事业发展综述

文章综述自党的十八大以来我国海洋预报减灾事业的发展情况,包括海洋预报减灾体制机制建设、海洋观测能力、海洋预警报公共服务水平、海洋减灾综合管理能力、海洋领域应对气候变化工作和海洋防灾减灾国际治理能力等方面;在此基础上,对海洋预报减灾工作提出完善体制机制、优化顶层设计、形成有机有序业务体系和提升海洋环境保障工作水平的要求。     

海洋预报公众服务移动应用系统的设计与实现

简单回顾了海洋气象预报领域手机应用程序的发展现状,分析了海洋预报公众服务应用系统存在的问题,提出了可行的系统架构设计和技术路线.总结了系统建设中的两项关键技术,即基于位置的海洋预报信息服务方法和预报场数据压缩方法,并给出了具体技术实现.以业务化系统为例,介绍了海洋预报公众服务移动应用系统的功能和应用情况.     

国外海洋预报动态

1全球海洋资料同化实验计划(Global Ocean Data Assimilation Experiment,GODAE)第三次会议全球海洋资料同化实验计划(Global Ocean Data Assimilation Experiment,GODAE)经过10年的发展,已经从实验阶段转为业务化阶段。2011年11月,GODAE第三次大会在巴黎召开,GODAE赞助组,任务工作组和科研工作组对已经取得的进展进行了总结,并对GODAE下一步工作进行了展望。     

海洋观测数据在海洋预报和海洋防灾减灾中的适用——以温州市和台州市为例

为完善海洋观测体系,提高海洋观测数据在海洋预报和海洋防灾减灾中的适用性,文章以海洋经济较发达和遭受海洋灾害较多的温州市和台州市为例,选取潮位、波浪和水温3个重要海洋观测要素,分析海洋观测数据在海洋预报和海洋防灾减灾中的适用,并提出对策建议。研究结果表明:由于观测时间较短、地理位置特殊和数据代表性不足,海洋观测站的潮位数据未能在台风风暴潮的预报和防灾减灾中有效发挥作用;由于波浪观测仪器布设位置的地形阻挡和观测站少,波浪数据的预报准确性和实际应用不足;个别观测站的水温数据不适用于大面海洋环境和赤潮的预报,且缺少对低温灾害的观测。针对海洋观测数据的实际应用与相关业务脱节的问题,未来应提高观测数据质量、紧密结合当地海洋预报和海洋防灾减灾工作需求、开展重点目标保障预报工作以及加强海洋观测宣传教育。     

美国军事应用海洋预报发展研究

美国军事应用海洋预报一直走在当今世界海军海洋战场保障的前沿,文中介绍了美国军事应用海洋预报体系的业务概念和发展历程,特别是对其在关键技术上的突破进行了分析和研究,对中国海军数字化海洋战场环境的构建具有重要的借鉴作用。     

《海洋预报》征稿简则

一、办刊宗旨:本刊是我国唯一的海洋环境预报的学术期刊,由国家海洋环境预报中心主办、国外公开发行。本刊聚焦于海洋预报、海洋气象预报和海洋防灾减灾的前沿发展动态和最新研究成果,刊登海洋科学、大气科学及其它相关学术领域的研究成果、发展趋势与动态、信息交流和工作经验总结等方面的文章。二、来稿要求:1.来稿要求论点明确,数据可靠,文字精炼,每篇文稿不超过8000字,其中只附必要的图表(8幅以内)。表格请使用三线纵表,表的结构要简明清楚;附图要求线条清晰、粗细均匀(请提供原始图片格式文件,可接收的图片文件格式包括:TIF、PNG、AI、EPS,图片单独压缩打包)。     

国外海洋预报动态

<正>1 2015年欧洲中期天气预报中心(ECMWF)预报产品可视化活动安排预报产品可视化是ECMWF预报分析、改进和交流的重要手段。2015年ECMWF将举办两轮可视化活动用以探讨气象学可视化问题。第一次常规"ECMWF预报应用"(Using ECMWF's Forecasts,UEF)会议将于六月召开,面向ECMWF预报产品的所有用户。今年的会议将关注预报的量化、可视化以及不确定性的沟通。     

Study on short-range numerical forecasting of ocean current in the East China Sea——Ⅰ Basic problems of ocean current forecasting and structure of the models

Ocean current forecasting is still in explorative stage of study. In the study, we face some problems that have not been met before. The solving of these problems has become fundamental premise for realizing the ocean current forecasting. In the present paper are discussed in depth the physical essence for such basic problems as the predictability of ocean current, the predictable currents, the dynamical basis for studying respectively the tidal current and circulation, the necessity of boundary model, the models on regions with different scales and their link. The foundations and plans to solve the problems are demonstrated. Finally a set of operational numerical forecasting system for ocean current is proposed.     

Verification of an operational ocean circulation-surface wave coupled forecasting system for the China's seas

An operational ocean circulation-surface wave coupled forecasting system for the seas off China and adjacent areas(OCFS-C) is developed based on parallelized circulation and wave models. It has been in operation since November 1, 2007. In this paper we comprehensively present the simulation and verification of the system, whose distinguishing feature is that the wave-induced mixing is coupled in the circulation model. In particular, with nested technique the resolution in the China's seas has been updated to(1/24)° from the global model with(1/2)°resolution. Besides, daily remote sensing sea surface temperature(SST) data have been assimilated into the model to generate a hot restart field for OCFS-C. Moreover, inter-comparisons between forecasting and independent observational data are performed to evaluate the effectiveness of OCFS-C in upper-ocean quantities predictions, including SST, mixed layer depth(MLD) and subsurface temperature. Except in conventional statistical metrics, non-dimensional skill scores(SS) is also used to evaluate forecast skill. Observations from buoys and Argo profiles are used for lead time and real time validations, which give a large SS value(more than 0.90). Besides, prediction skill for the seasonal variation of SST is confirmed. Comparisons of subsurface temperatures with Argo profiles data indicate that OCFS-C has low skill in predicting subsurface temperatures between 100 m and 150 m. Nevertheless, inter-comparisons of MLD reveal that the MLD from model is shallower than that from Argo profiles by about 12 m, i.e., OCFS-C is successful and steady in MLD predictions. Validation of 1-d, 2-d and 3-d forecasting SST shows that our operational ocean circulation-surface wave coupled forecasting model has reasonable accuracy in the upper ocean.     

Changes in ocean ventilation during the 21st Century in the CCSM3

Changes in the ventilation rate of the global ocean during the 20th and 21st centuries, as indicated by changes in the distribution of ideal age, are examined in a series of integrations of the Community Climate System Model version 3. The global mean age changes little in the 20th Century relative to pre-industrial conditions, but increases in the 21st Century, by an amount that is independent of the range of climate forcings considered. The increase is primarily due to a decrease in the ventilation rate of Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW), and to a lesser degree, North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW). Changes in a regional volumetric census of age indicate that the changes in AABW are predominantly for waters that are already older than 100 years, so will likely have a moderate direct feedback on oceanic uptake of CO₂ and other tracers. On the other hand, the changes in NADW occur most strongly in waters that are a few decades old, so are more likely to have a feedback on the climate system. While the global mean age increases, the age does not increase everywhere in the ocean. Regions newly exposed to strong atmospheric forcing as sea ice retreats experience an increase in convection and decreasing age. Age also decreases over a large volume of the lower thermocline as the rate of upwelling of old deep water decreases with the weakening of the thermohaline circulation.     

Study on short-range numerical forecasting of ocean current in the East China Sea-Ⅲ Three-dimensional baroclinic anomaly forecasting model and its application

Ｓｔｕｄｙｏｎｓｈｏｒｔ－ｒａｎｇｅｎｕｍｅｒｉｃａｌｆｏｒｅｃａｓｔｉｎｇｏｆｏｃｅａｎｃｕｒｒｅｎｔｉｎｔｈｅＥａｓｔＣｈｉｎａＳｅａ－ⅢＴｈｒｅｅ－ｄｉｍｅｎｓｉｏｎａｌｂａｒｏｃｌｉｎｉｃａｎｏｍａｌｙｆｏｒｅｃａｓｔｉｎｇｍｏｄｅｌａｎｄｉ...     

面向21世纪的中国港口发展剖析

本文从十个方面对中国港口面向２１ 世纪的发展方向、策略等进行了分析探讨     

数字海洋可视化系统研究与实现

球体模型系统是目前GIS领域的研究热点,它以强大的空间数据管理能力,丰富直观的信息表现能力迅速成为空间信息集成共享的有力平台.以Skyline软件平台为基础,介绍了数字海洋可视化系统的体系架构、功能设计和技术实现方法.实践应用表明,该系统在多源海洋信息可视化集成共享方面具有良好的应用前景.     

Development of a regional ocean model for New Zealand

A regional ocean model with a horizontal resolution of 1/6° encompassing the New Zealand Exclusive Economic Zone is described. The regional model successfully downscaled solutions from a high resolution, global, coupled model HadCEM. Transport estimates from the global and regional models were compared with observations, and both models supported largely consistent, climatological mean solutions. The regional model used monthly mean forcing at the surface. Nevertheless, the regional model eddy kinetic energy (EKE) spatial patterns compared favourably with long‐term mean satellite altimetric estimates, although the modelled background EKE amplitudes were much lower than observed. A series of permanent eddies associated with the western boundary current system around the top of the North Island of New Zealand were reproduced, and an eddy adjacent to Norfolk Ridge was identified in both the global and regional models. The western boundary current system around the North Island of New Zealand and the associated eddies were the most sensitive components of the model solutions, being influenced by initial conditions, wind forcing, and the model domain size.     

弱气压场中南海东北部海浪预报失败典型个案

目前在广东气象界里对海浪预报服务情况分析是比较少的,针对2005年12月底到2006年1月初南海东北部石油平台用户对海浪预报产品服务的意见反馈,本文通过分析该时段的天气背景,中尺度数值预报产品,实况风浪情况,综合我们提供给用户的海浪预报产品进行对比,目的是找出该次预报不成功的事实和原因,给用户有所交代;同时希望通过这类总结分析,对海上风浪预报服务提出警示,避免类似错误再次出现,提高专业预报服务质量。