Precursory seismic quiescence

Seventeen cases of precursory seismic quiescence to mainshocks with magnitudes fromM _L=4.7 toM _S=8.0 are summarized. The amount of rate decrease ranges from 45% to 90%. The significance of these changes varies between 90% and 99.99%. The assumption that the background rate is approximately constant is fulfilled in most crustal volumes studied. All quiescence anomalies seem to have abrupt beginnings, and the rate during the anomalous period is fairly constant. The duration of the precursors ranges from 15 to 75 months, and it is not clear what factors determine that time. At least three successful predictions have been based on seismic quiescence. These cases have shown that mainshocks can be predicted based on quiescence, but they have also shown that the interpretation of the data in real time is difficult and nonunique. If a false alarm is defined as a period of quiescence with a significance level larger than a precursory quiescence in the same tectonic area, then we estimate, based on searches in four areas, that the false alarm rate may be on the order of 50%. Failure to predict may be expected in perhaps 50% of mainshocks, even in carefully monitored areas. Quiescence cannot be used as a precursor in tectonic environments with low seismic activity. Most characteristics of the phenomenon are still poorly defined, but data exist which probably permit at least a doubling of the presently available data on case histories.     

Accelerating seismic crustal deformation before strong mainshocks in Adriatic and its importance for earthquake prediction

Time accelerating Benioff strain releasebefore the mainshock has been observed inall five cases of strong (M > 6.0) shallowmainshocks, which have occurred during thelast four decades in the area surroundingthe Adriatic Sea. This observation supportsthe idea that strong mainshocks arepreceded by accelerating seismic crustaldeformation due to the generation ofintermediate magnitude shocks (preshocks).It is further shown that the values ofparameters calculated from these datafollow appropriately modified relations,which have previously been proposed asadditional constraints to the criticalearthquake model and to the correspondingmethod of intermediate term earthquakeprediction. Thus, these results show thatthe identification of regions wheretime-accelerating Benioff strain followssuch constraints may lead to usefulinformation concerning the epicenter,magnitude and origin time of oncomingstrong mainshocks in this area. Theprocedure for identification of thetime-acceleration is validated byappropriate application on synthetic butrealistic random catalogues. Largerdimension of critical regions in Adriaticcompared to such regions in the Aegean isattributed to an order of magnitude smallerseismic deformation of the crust in theformer in comparison to the latter.     

Precursory seismic quiescence: Past,present, and future

Precursory seismic quiescence has played a major role in most of the succesful earthquake predictions made to date. In addition to these successes, the number of detailed post-mainshock documentations of precursory quiescence is steadily growing. These facts suggest that precursory quiescence will play an important role in earthquake prediction programs of the future. For this reason it is important to critically evaluate the present state of knowledge concerning this phenomenon. The history of observations of precursory seismic quiescence includes work on seismic gaps and seismic preconditions as well as actual studies of temporal quiescence. These papers demonstrated the importance of quantitative evaluation of seismicity rates and the benefits of systematic analysis. During the early 1980's the impact of man-made effects on seismicity rates was demonstrated for the first time. Despite progress in catalog understanding, the identification and correction of man-made seismicity changes remains as the major barrier to earthquake prediction using these data. Effects of man-made changes are apparent in many past studies of seismicity patterns, making the results difficult to evaluate. Recent experience with real-time anomalies has demonstrated the necessity of determining the false alarm rates associated with quiescence precursors. Determination of false alarm rates depends on quantitative definitions of anomalies and statistical evaluations of their significance. A number of successful predictions, which have been made on the basis of seismic quiescence, provide important lessons for present and future work. There are many presently unanswered questions regarding seismic quiescence which must be answered before we can determine the reliability of this phenomena as a precursor.     

Present-day seismicity,stress field and crustal deformation of Egypt

In this study we investigate present-day seismicity and crustal deformation of Egypt based on a comprehensive earthquake catalog from 1900 to 2004 by focal mechanism stress inversion and by recent GPS observations. Spatial distribution of earthquake epicenters indicates that Egypt has been suffered from both interplate and intraplate earthquakes. Most earthquake activity (more than 70%) has been concentrated in northern Egypt along the geologically documented borders of Sinai subplate (northern Red Sea and its two branches Suez rift and Aqaba–Dead Sea transform). The majority of inland earthquake focal mechanisms in Egypt are normal with strike-slip component or strike-slip faulting events. Only a small minority, namely four events, exhibits reverse faulting. The inversion method of Gephart and Forsyth (1984) was applied to calculate the orientation of the principle stress axes and the shape of the stress tensor. The best fitting tensor in Egypt shows homogeneity stress field. The tension stress regime is dominant in northern Egypt. The stress directions are well resolved by the 95% confidence limits, the relative stress magnitude has a value of about 0.3. However, along southern Egypt the strike-slip regime is dominant. The shape factor (R-value) is 0.5, which means that the deviatoric components of σ₁ and σ₃ are of the same magnitude, but of opposite signs. The average horizontal velocity of GPS stations in Egypt is 5.15± 1.1 mm/year in mostly NNW direction. The results of deformation analysis indicate that the northern Egypt is deformed more than the southern part. Only the Egyptian-Mediterranean coastal–Nile Delta zone dominates as a compression deformation area. However, an extensional deformation has been observed throughout the rest of country. This means that the relative motion of African plate with respect to both Eurasian and Arabian has highly controlled the deformation processes in Egypt.     

山西断裂带的地震活动与形变资料分析研究

用地震活动性和水平形变资料及定点地倾斜资料分析构造活动中岩层物理变化与形变位移之间对应关系,对以后GPS观测的形变应用于地震预报做一些尝试性工作。结果表明,GPS资料应用于地震预报是大有前途的。     

Research on present crustal deformation in the southern Tianshan (Jiashi) region by GPS geodesy

IntroductionSinceaMs=6.9earthquakeoccurredinArtux,Xinjiang,ChinaonMarchl9,l996,7earth-quakeswithmagnitudeofMs>6werefollowedsuccessivelynearbyJiashi,southemnanshan.Thephenomenonthatagroupofstrongearthquakes(Jiashiearthquakeswann)concentratedwithinashorterperiodoflyearormoreisanunprecedentedeventsincetheinstrUmentalrecordofseis-micityinthecontinent,drawingconsiderableattentionofseismologists.TheJiashiearthquakeswarmhaPpenedonthenortheastemflankofthewestCmsyntaxofHimalayancollisionbeltwheret…     

形变数字化资料对邢台地区地震前兆反应的研究

使用张家口、怀来、赤城、宽城、易县和涉县6个台站共计43个测项的数字化资料,针对2002~2005年邢台地区发生的3个M>4级的中强地震,进行了地震前兆和同震反应研究。发现我省数字化形变资料对3次邢台4级以上地震的形变前兆反应主要是以应变为主,包括体应变和线应变,并且异常形态以固体潮畸变和抖动为主。同震反应比较明显,主要以同震阶跃为主。     

首都圈地壳网格化三维结构

通过对首都圈地区不同时期的18条深地震测深(DSS)测线资料的重新统一处理,形成采样网格密度为0.25°×0.25°×（2～5）km的速度网格化数字地壳;通过对三维数据的可视化,得到了首都圈地壳不同走向、不同圈层的截面图像;从不同的视角、不同的方面探讨了控制首都圈地壳的北部燕山隆起、西南部太行隆起和东南部裂陷盆地等三大地质单元的构造特征以及接触带张家口-渤海断陷带的构造性质,进一步研究首都圈地壳内部结构构造与灾害性地震的孕发机制的关系.     

Evidence for periodic seismicity in the inner Aegean seismic zone

The most complete and reliable data of strong (M _s6.5), shallow (h<70 km) earthquakes which occurred in the inner Aegean seismic zone have been utilized to describe its seismicity time variation during 1800–1986 by two independent statistical models. The first is a sequentially stationary model of seismicity rates which shows that intervals of low seismicity rate, lasting for some 37 years, alternate with high rate intervals of 8–12 years duration. The second model is a statistical model according which seismic energy released within 5-year time windows approximates a harmonic curve within a period of about 50 years. This model is in agreement with the notion that the time series of strong earthquake occurrences in the inner Aegean seismic zone consists of a random (shocks withM _s=6.5–6.8) and a nonrandom component (M _s6.9). Maxima and minima of the harmonic curve coincide with the high and low rate intervals, respectively. A model of regional stationary accumulation of thermal stresses along certain seismic belts and their cyclic relaxation may explain this periodicity.     

1987年1月8日甘肃迭部5.9级地震与地形变特征

根据１９８７年１月８日甘肃迭部５．９级地震前，该区域的地壳形变中长期背景和定点台站连续观测资料的震反应异常，分析研究了这此异常的变化特征。     

The character and extent of seismic deformation in the focal zone of gazli earthquakes of 1976 and 1984,M>7.0

With objective of investigating the peculiarities of seismic process development and seismotectonic deformation character in the focal area of the Gazli earthquakes of 1976 (7.0<M<7.3) and 1984 (M=7.2), a local seismic network was installed. For the field observation period (May to June, 1991) more than 400 events with magnitudes –0.2<M<4.5 were recorded by at least 6 stations.Isometric presentation of earthquake hypocenters distribution allows us to define the depth and dipping planes orientation of seismoactive faults of the region.The focal mechanisms of 35 earthquakes for the period 1979–1988,M>2.8, connected to a gas extraction regime period, and 75 events 1<M<4.3 for the 1991 period (gas storage regime) are used to analyze the dynamics of seismotectonic deformation processes (SDP) in this region. It has been ascertained, that the earth's crust in the Gazli region is subject to complicated deformation processes, particularly below 4 km depth. The predominant kind of deformation is compression. Vertical velocities of deformation show uplift of most of the region during the period of field work. The maximum velocity of vertical deformations for the Gazli structure isV=0.41 mm/year. The comparison of the vertical velocities' displacements due to seismic flow with recent tectonic movements of the earth's crust has revealed their direct relation and high percentage of seismic flow contribution to the tectonic movement. The results obtained testify that the active seismic processes in the Gazli region are connected not as much as the residual stress release in the focal zone of the earthquakes 05. 1976 and 1984,M>7.0 but rather with the influence of the gas reservoir exploitational regime on the rocks with different rheologic properties.     

首都圈及山西断陷带北部地壳垂直形变与地震危险性分析

根据首都圈地区及山西断陷带精密水准复测资料,分析了近十年来地壳垂直形变状态与特征。结果表明,研究区的东北区域表现为整体下降,下降速率约2～4mm／a;但“北升南降”的运动格局基本没有改变。太行山以西至山西断陷带的东侧地区为整体隆升。隆升速率最大近8mm／a。运动的时空分布从“南快北慢”整体上升的特征,逐步转变为“北升南降”的有升有降的特征。西区上述运动性质发生变化是以2001年为分界线,同时在延怀盆地及其附近区域形成了四象限分布的形变图像。但这一图像从规模和量级上都小于大同地震前的变形。山西断陷带北部的运动表现为断陷型的垂直运动,整体呈下降趋势,运动速率为4～6mm／a。上述特征表明监测区未来2～3年内发生6级以上地震的可能性不大。     

Rates of crustal deformation in the North Aegean trough-North Anatolian fault deduced from seismicity

The rates and configuration of seismic deformation in the North Aegean trough-North Anatolian fault are determined from the moment tensor mechanisms of the earthquakes that occurred within this region. The analysis is based onKostrov's (1974) formulation. The fault plane solutions of the earthquakes of the period 1913–1983 withM _s 6.0 are used. The focal mechanism of some of the past events (before 1960) is assumed, based on the present knowledge of the seismotectonics as well as on the macroseismic records of the area studied. The analysis showed that the deformation of the northern Aegean is dominated by EW contraction (at a rate of about 15 mm/yr) which is relieved by NS extension (at a rate of about 9 mm/yr). It was also shown that the northern part of North Anatolia (north of 39.7°N parallel) undergoes contraction in the EW direction (at a rate of about 9 mm/yr) and NS extension as the dominant mode of deformation (at a rate of about 5 mm/yr). It may be stated therefore, that the pattern of deformation of the northern Aegean and the northern part of North Anatolian fault is controlled by the NS extension the Aegean is undergoing as a whole, and the dextral strike-slip motion of the North Anatolian fault. The southern part of North Anatolia is undergoing crustal thinning at a rate of 2.3 mm/yr, NS extension (at a rate of 5 mm/yr) as well as EW extension (at a rate of 4 mm/yr), which are consistent with the occurrence of major normal faulting and justify the separation of North Anatolia into two separate subareas.     

上海及邻区的地壳形变速率与地震活动

对上海佘山地震台伸缩仪的数字记录资料进行去趋势以及地壳形变速率的分析表明：伸缩仪EW向在200l年5～7月存在破年变趋势异常，并且该测项的形变速率在2001年3～8月存在高于正常背景值的异常。结合GPS资料、应力场、地震活动性的情况分析后认为，佘山台的形变速率异常可反映上海及邻区应力场的部分信息，该信息对地震活动具有一定前兆意义。因此，应用形变数字化资料计算地壳形变速率，可作为对地层活动以及日常地震预测的一种分析方法。     

Spatial and temporal distribution of seismicity before the Umbria-Marche September 26, 1997 earthquakes

Spatial and temporal distribution of seismicityoccurring prior to the Umbria-Marche earthquake ofSeptember 26, 1997, are studied. By applying the RTLprognostic parameter, a quiescence stage followed bya period of foreshock activation is observed beforethe event. The main shock occurred soon after therecovery of the RTL parameter to its normal backgroundlevel. An investigation of the clustering process isperformed on the earthquakes with M 3.5,occurred since 1989 in the area of the epicenter ofthe September 26, 1997 event. In comparison to theaverage background of the previous period, theincrease of the area of rupture activated during thetwelve months leading up to the Umbria-Marcheconcentrates in the vicinity of the main shock. Someresults of application of the time-to-failure model toseismicity before the Umbria-Marche main shock, arealso discussed.     

Upper crustal deformation characteristics in the northeastern Tibetan Plateau and its adjacent areas revealed by GNSS and anisotropy data

The northeastern part of the Tibetan Plateau is a region where different tectonic blocks collide and intersect, and large earthquakes are frequent. Global Navigation Satellite System(GNSS) observations show that tectonic deformation in this region is strong and manifests as non-uniform deformation associated with tectonic features. S-wave splitting studies of near-field seismic data show that seismic anisotropy parameters can also reveal the upper crustal medium deformation beneath the reporting...     

Precursory groundwater level changes in the period of activation of the weak intraplate seismic activity on the NE margin of the Bohemian Massif (central Europe) in 2005

tWe analyse continuous measurements of groundwater level in two deep wells VS-3 and V-28 at the experimental hydro-meteorological station situated on the NE margin of the Bohemian Massif, central Europe, characterized by the weak intraplate seismic activity. The aim of our study is to examine the relationships between changes in the groundwater level and earthquake occurrence. Based on the tidal and barometric response of the water level, we estimated selected elastic parameters of the observed aquifers: the shear modulus G, the Skempton ratio B, the drained matrix compressibility β and the undrained compressibility β_u. Using these parameters and assuming the homogeneous poroelastic material, we derived the sensitivity of the wells to the crustal volume strain. During the observation period from November 1998 to December 2005 we detected in the VS-3 well two pre-seismic steps, related to August 10, 2005 (M = 2.4) and October 25, 2005 (M = 3.3) earthquakes. Amplitudes of the recorded precursory changes (+6 cm and +15 cm) are several times higher than the values predicted from the theoretical precursory crustal strain and the strain sensitivity of the well. Therefore, we presume that the observed pre-seismic water level steps can be attributed to heterogeneity of poroelastic material. We consequently propose the hypothesis of the origin of precursory events based on the presumption of a sensitive site, at which the well is situated.     

数字化地形变资料异常形态与地震

针对近几年马陵山地震台的数字化地形变资料,参照台站仪器工作日志,排除了人为干扰、气象因素等台站已知干扰因素,通过综合分析总结了本台数字化地形变日值分钟值曲线在震前出现的几种异常图象.     

青藏高原北部地区地震统计区划分及地震活动特征

地震统计区的划分是研究地震活动性的重要前提和基础,通过对青藏高原北部地区构造地质背景的分析,依据地球物理特征和强震活动特点,讨论和划分该区地震活动统计区,探讨研究区地震活动的复发特点、地震构造特征、潜在地震危险性及强度,分析研究区未来强震发生的强度和可能地点,结果表明,目前青藏高原北部地区处于第8个活跃期,仍存在发生强震的可能,且未来数年存在发生7级以上地震的可能,应密切东昆仑断裂带东段和祁连山中西段地区。     

Research on dynamics patterns and parameter characters of crustal deformation field before and after strong earthquake

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