On seasonal approach to flood frequency modelling. Part I: Two‐component distribution revisited

The annual peak flow series of the Polish rivers are mixtures of summer and winter flows. In the Part I of a sequence of two papers, theoretical aspects of applicability of seasonal approach to flood frequency analysis (FFA) in Poland are discussed. A testing procedure is introduced for the seasonal model and the data overall fitness. Conditions for objective comparative assessment of accuracy of annual maxima (AM) and seasonal maxima (SM) approaches to FFA are formulated and finally Gumbel (EV1) distribution is chosen as seasonal distribution for detailed investigation. Sampling properties of AM quantile x(F) estimates are analysed and compared for the SM and AM models for equal seasonal variances. For this purpose, four estimation methods were used, employing both asymptotic approach and sampling experiments. Superiority of the SM over AM approach is stated evident in the upper quantile range, particularly for the case of no seasonal variation in the parameters of Gumbel distribution. In order to learn whether the standard two‐ and three‐parameter flood frequency distributions can be used to model the samples generated from the Two‐Component Extreme Value 1 (TCEV1) distribution, the shape of TCEV1 probability density function (PDF) has been tested in terms of bi‐modality. Then the use of upper quantile estimate obtained from the dominant season of extreme floods (DEFS) as AM upper quantile estimate is studied and respective systematic error is assessed. The second part of the paper deals with advantages and disadvantages of SM and AM approach when applied to real flow data of Polish rivers. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

EXPORTS OF ORGANIC CARBON IN BRITISH RIVERS

This study provides the first detailed estimate of riverine organic carbon fluxes in British rivers, as well as highlighting major gaps in organic carbon data in national archives. Existing data on organic carbon and suspended solids concentrations collected between 1989 and 1993, during routine monitoring by the River Purification Boards (RPBs) in Scotland and the National River Authorities (NRAs) in England and Wales, were used with annual mean flows to estimate fluxes of dissolved and particulate organic carbon (DOC and POC) in British rivers. Riverine DOC exports during 1993 varied from 7·7–103·5 kg ha⁻¹ year⁻¹, with a median flux of 31·9 kg ha⁻¹ year⁻¹ in the 85 rivers for which data were available. There was a trend for DOC fluxes to increase from the south and east to the north and west. A predictive model based on mean soil carbon storage in 17 catchments, together with regional precipitation totals, explained 94% of the variation in the riverine DOC exports in 1993. This model was used to predict riverine DOC fluxes in regions where no organic carbon data were available. Calculated and predicted fluxes were combined to produce an estimate for exports of DOC to tidal waters in British rivers during 1993 of 0·68±0·07 Mt. Of this total, rivers in Scotland accounted for 53%, England 38% and Wales 9%. Scottish blanket peats would appear to be the largest single source of DOC exports in British rivers. An additional 0·20 Mt of organic carbon were estimated to have been exported in particulate form in 1993, approximately two–thirds of which was contributed by English rivers. It is suggested that riverine losses of organic carbon have the potential to affect the long-term dynamics of terrestrial organic carbon pools in Britain and that rivers may regulate increases in soil carbon pools brought about by climate change. © 1997 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A study of river channel pattern information recorded by grain size parameters of fluvial sediment

River channel pattern may be regarded as the outcome of streamflow, sediment load, and channel boundary conditions, as can the grain size distribution of bed material. It may therefore be expected that connections should exist between river channel pattern characteristics and the corresponding river bed material grain size parameters. Using data from some Chinese rivers, an attempt has been made to express these connections quantitatively by using statistical methods. The work demonstrates that the river's bed load can be related to the percentage of the traction subpopulation of the bed material shown by the probabilistic plot of grain size cumulative-frequency curve. The study has also revealed some correlations between the bed material grain size parameters of rivers and their channel geometry such as channel width-depth ratio and channel sinuosity. For instance, the higher the ratio of the traction to suspension subpopulation in bed material, the more sinuous, more shallow, and wider the river channel would be. Furthermore, a discrimination function has been given to distinguish between meandering and wandering braided rivers. If the existence of these relationships can be supported by data from more rivers in other regions, then by using them we can postdict palaeoriver channel geometry and its channel pattern character from fluvial sediment grain size parameters of the palaeoriver. This would open a new way to reconstruct the physicogeographical environment in which palaeorivers developed.     

The effects of climate changes on aquifer storage and river baseflow

Abstract

The effects of changes in climate on aquifer storage and groundwater flow to rivers have been investigated using an idealized representation of the aquifer/river system. The generalized aquifer/river model can incorporate spatial variability in aquifer transmissivity and is applied with parameters characteristic of Chalk and Triassic sandstone aquifers in the United Kingdom, and is also applicable to other aquifers elsewhere. The model is run using historical time series of recharge, estimated from observed rainfall and potential evaporation data, and with climate inputs perturbed according to a number of climate change scenarios. Simulations of baseflow suggest large proportional reductions at low flows from Chalk under high evaporation change scenarios. Simulated baseflow from the slower responding Triassic sandstone aquifer shows more uniform and less severe reductions. The change in hydrological regime is less extreme for the low evaporation change scenario, but remains significant for the Chalk aquifer.     

基于长短时记忆神经网络的鄱阳湖水位预测

湖泊水位是维持其生态系统结构、功能和完整性的基础.鄱阳湖受流域"五河"和长江来水双重影响,水位变化复杂.为了准确预测鄱阳湖水位变化,采用长短时记忆神经网络方法(LSTM)构建了鄱阳湖水位预测模型.该模型以赣江、抚河、信江、饶河和修水"五河"入湖流量和长江干流流量作为输入条件,预测鄱阳湖湖区不同代表站(湖口、星子、都昌、吴城和康山)的水位过程.研究以1956—1980年的水文时间序列数据作为训练集,1981—2000年作为验证集,探讨了LSTM模型输入时间窗、隐藏神经元数目、初始学习率等模型参数对预测精度的影响,并确定了鄱阳湖水位预测模型的最优参数.结果表明,采用LSTM神经网络方法可基于流域"五河"和长江来水量历时数据合理预测鄱阳湖不同湖区的水位过程,五站水位预测的均方根误差为0.41～0.50 m,纳什效率系数和决定系数达0.96～0.98.为考察模型训练数据集对鄱阳湖水位预测结果的影响,进一步选取了随机5年(1956—1960年)的资料和5个典型水文年(1954年、1973年、1974年、1977年和1978年)的日均流量资料来训练模型.结果显示随机5年资料作为训练数据的预测精度要差于典型年水文资料训练得到的模型,尤其是洪、枯水位的预测;由于典型水文年数据量仍远低于20年的资料,故其总体预测精度要略低于采用20年资料训练的模型.建议应用这类基于数据驱动的模型时,应该尽可能多选取具有代表性的资料来训练.     

Physically based modeling of many-year dynamics of daily streamflow and snow water equivalent in the Lena R. basin

The applicability of a procedure, developed previously for evaluating runoff hydrographs of northern rivers, to the largest Russian river—the Lena—which flows under severe conditions of the Northeastern Siberia, is examined. The procedure is based on the land surface model SWAP in combination with input data derived from global databases of land surface parameters and meteorological forcing data derived from observations at meteorological stations located in the basins of the rivers or near them. Also studied was the ability of the model SWAP to reproduce the many-year dynamics of the values of snow water equivalent averaged over the Lena basin and their distribution over the basin area.     

Prediction of river water temperature: a comparison between a new family of hybrid models and statistical approaches

River water temperature is a key physical variable controlling several chemical, biological and ecological processes. Its reliable prediction is a main issue in many environmental applications, which however is hampered by data scarcity, when using data‐demanding deterministic models, and modelling limitations, when using simpler statistical models. In this work we test a suite of models belonging to air2stream family, which are characterized by a hybrid formulation that combines a physical derivation of the key equation with a stochastic calibration of parameters. The air2stream models rely solely on air temperature and streamflow, and are of similar complexity as standard statistical models. The performances of the different versions of air2stream in predicting river water temperature are compared with those of the most common statistical models typically used in the literature. To this aim, a dataset of 38 Swiss rivers is used, which includes rivers classified into four different categories according to their hydrological characteristics: low‐land natural rivers, lake outlets, snow‐fed rivers and regulated rivers. The results of the analysis provide practical indications regarding the type of model that is most suitable to simulate river water temperature across different time scales (from daily to seasonal) and for different hydrological regimes. A model intercomparison exercise suggests that the family of air2stream hybrid models generally outperforms statistical models, while cross‐validation conducted over a 30‐year period indicates that they can be suitably adopted for long‐term analyses. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Modeling discharge rating curves with Bayesian B-splines

River discharges are traditionally modeled by employing a standard power-law methodology. Recently, the Bayesian approached has successfully been applied to improve the estimates of the standard power-law. In this article, an extension to the standard power-law based on Bayesian B-splines is developed and tested on data sets from 61 different rivers. The extended model is evaluated against the standard power-law using two measures, the Deviance Information Criterion and Bayes factor. The extended model captures deviations in the data from the standard power-law but reduces to the standard power-law when that model is adequate. The standard power-law is inadequate for 26% of the rivers while the extended model provides an adequate fit in all of those cases and for the remaining 74% of the rivers the extended model and the power-law model both give adequate fit with almost identical estimates.     

MORPHOLOGICAL CHARACTERISTICS OF FREE BENDS

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Statistical Analysis of Water Quality Parameters in Seven Major Serbian Rivers during 2004‒2013 Period

Rivers on territory of the Republic of Serbia can be separated to three sea drainage basins: Black, Adriatic and Aegean. Majority of rivers belong to the Black Sea drainage basin. The Danube is the most important river in Serbia and one of the most important rivers of Europe. All rivers investigated in this paper represent direct or indirect tributaries of the Danube River and as that, they are belonging to the Black Sea drainage basin. In this study, the water quality status and the spatial and temporal trends of seven major rivers in Serbia were assessed through the application of ten parameters of Water Quality Index. Ten year (2004–2013) public database of environmental data was used. Into considerations were taken differences between every river individually and difference between sample positions on every single river. Based on the chemical parameters of water quality, it can be seen that the biggest rivers in Serbia show different values of WQ parameters. The highest WQ value is measured on the Drina River, while the lowest value is measured on the Ju?na Morava and the Tisza River. Analyses of parameters per period of year show that there is a statistically significant difference between values during warm and cold periods.     

Sediment load reduction in Chinese rivers

In this paper, the changes in the annual runoff and sediment transport have been assessed by using the long term observation data from 10 gauging stations on 10 large rivers across China from far north to far south. It is found that the annual sediment yield has generally had a decreasing trend in the past half century. According to the changes in annual runoff and the sediment yield per area, rivers in China can be classified into the following three groups： 1） rivers with decreasing annual sediment transport and stable runoff; 2） rivers with both decreasing annual sediment transport and runoff and 3） rivers with greatly reduced annual sediment transport and decreasing annual runoff. The results indicate that, in all southern rivers （to the south of the Huaihe River including the Huaihe River）, there has been little change in average annual runoff but a dramatic decrease in annual sediment transport. In the northern rivers, however, both the annual sediment yield and the runoff show significant evidence of reduction. To further investigate the recent changes in annual runoff and sediment transport, the short-term observation data from these 10 gauging stations in the recent 10 years have been assessed. Results show that both the annual sediment transport and the runoff have decreased＂ significantly in the northern rivers in the past 10 years. Using the Yellow River at the Lijin Station as an example, the average annual runoff for the last 10 years is only 1/3 of the long term average value and the average annual sediment yield of the last 10 years is only 1/4 of the long term average value. More unusually, in the Yongding River the annual sediment yield has approached zero and the runoff has decreased significantly. In addition, the impacts of human activities on the changes in both runoff and sediment transport have been discussed.     

Comparison of hydraulic geometry between sand‐ and gravel‐bed rivers in relation to channel pattern discrimination

A comparison has been made between the hydraulic geometry of sand‐ and gravel‐bed rivers, based on data from alluvial rivers around the world. The results indicate a signi?cant difference in hydraulic geometry among sand‐ and gravel‐bed rivers with different channel patterns. On this basis, some diagrams for discrimination of meandering and braided channel patterns have been established. The relationships between channel width and water discharge, between channel depth and water discharge, between width–depth ratio and water discharge and between channel slope and water discharge can all be used for channel pattern discrimination. The relationship between channel width and channel depth can also be used for channel pattern discrimination. However, the accuracy of these relationships for channel pattern discrimination varies, and the depth–discharge relationship is a better discriminator of pattern type than the classic slope–discharge function. The cause for this difference has been explained qualitatively. To predict the development of channel patterns under different natural conditions, the pattern discriminator should be searched on the basis of independent or at least semi‐independent variables. The relationship between stream power and bed material grain size can be used to discriminate channel patterns, which shows a better result than the discriminator using the slope–discharge relationship. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Modelling runoff using optical satellite remote sensing data in a high mountainous alpine catchment of Italy

Development of hydrological models for seasonal and real-time runoff forecast in rivers of high alpine catchments is useful for management of water resources. The conceptual models for this purpose are based on a temperature index and/or energy budget and can be either lumped or distributed over the catchment area. Remote sensing satellite data are most useful to acquire near real-time geophysical parameters in order to input to the distributed forecasting models. In the present study, integration of optical satellite remote sensing-derived information was made with ground meteorological and hydrological data, and predetermined catchment morphological parameters, to study the feasibility of application of a distributed temperature index snowmelt runoff model to one of the high mountainous catchments in the Italian Alps, known as Cordevole River Basin. Five sets of Landsat Multispectral Scanning System (MSS) and Thematic Mapper (TM) computer-compatible tapes (CCTs) were processed using digital image processing techniques in order to evaluate the snow cover variation quantitatively. Digital elevation model, slope and aspect parameters were developed and used during satellite data processing. The satellite scenes were classified as snow, snow under transition and snow free areas. A second-order polynomial fit has been attempted to approximate the snow depletion and to estimate daily snow cover areal extent for three elevation zones of the catchment separately. Model performance evaluation based on correlation coefficient, Nash–Sutcliffe coefficient and percentage volume deviation indicated very good simulation between measured and computed discharges for the entire snowmelt period. The use of average temperature values computed from the maximum and minimum temperatures into the model was studied and a suitable algorithm was proposed. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Characterisation of streamflow regimes in central Spain, based on relevant hydrobiological parameters

The biotic composition, structure, and function of aquatic, wetland, and riparian ecosystem depend largely on the hydrological regime (Poff, N.L., Ward, J.V., 1990. Implications of streamflow variability and predictability for lotic community structure: a regional analysis of streamflow patterns. Can. J. Fisheries Aquat. Sci. 46, 1805–1818; Richter, B.D., Baumgartner, J.V., Wiginton, R., Braun, D.P., 1997 How much water does a river need? Freshwater Biol. 37, 231–249). Available flow data for many rivers in the world can be used to validate these ecological theories. There is a demand for studies that use hydrological indices to establish criteria, which serve to group together regime types at a local level. Once this has been done, these hydrologically similar groups can be used to identify communities of living organisms that are linked to specific aspects of the river's behaviour.

An approach to characterise flow regimes in the river network of the Tagus basin in Spain is presented. The river Tagus (río Tajo) is one of the seven major rivers of the Iberian peninsula. All hydrological data were acquired from the measurements made in the Tagus basin, at 25 gauging stations. Twelve variables were derived for each gauged site to describe variability and predictability of average streamflow conditions, and to describe the frequency, timing and intensity of high flow and low flow extremes.

A hierarchical clustering routine was used to identify similar groups of rivers as defined in terms of similar characteristics of their streamflow regime. The variables were also examined with simple correlations to determine if multicollinearity occurred, in order to reject redundant parameters or to identify similar behaviour trends between pairs of parameters. Some parameters have shown a tendency to increase or decrease along the east–west axis, suggesting that some of the studied characteristics may have a geographical cause.

Cluster analysis, with the values of the 12 parameters, reveals two main groups, each of which splits into two main subdivisions. One of these subgroups contains six rivers with similar characteristics, can be considered to be ‘classic regular rivers’, the stations in this first subgroup are mostly situated geographically close to each other. At the other end, we have found a subgroup, with a high variation of flows over the year and high flood flows; these rivers are highly irregular rivers with great changes. This regular–irregular gradient found between the groups is similar to that observed by others authors (Poff, N.L., Allan J.D., 1995. Functional organization of stream fish assemblages in relation to hydrological variability. Ecology 76, 606–627), and strong associations have been documented with compositions of populations and probably reflect differences in other similar important environmental factors.     

Determining drag coefficients and their application in modelling of turbulent flow with submerged vegetation

Vegetation is a key aspect of water resources and ecology in natural rivers, floodplains and irrigation channels. The hydraulic resistance of the water flow is greatly changed when submerged vegetation is present. Three kinds of drag coefficients, i.e., the drag coefficient for an isolated cylinder, the bulk drag coefficient of an array of cylinders and the vertically distributed or local drag coefficient, have been commonly used as parameters to represent the vegetation drag force. In this paper, a comprehensive experimental study of submerged stems in an open channel flow is presented. Empirical formulae for the three drag coefficients were obtained based on our experimental results and on data from previous studies. A two-layer model was developed to solve the mean momentum equation, which was used to evaluate the vertical mean velocity profile with each of the drag coefficients. By comparing the velocity distribution model predictions and the measurement results, we found that the model with the drag coefficient for an isolated cylinder and the local drag coefficient was good fit. In addition, the model with the bulk drag coefficient gave much larger velocity values than measurements, but it could be improved by adding the bed friction effect and making choice of the depth-averaged velocity within the canopy layer.     

考虑电流型畸变的大地电磁三维反演

大地电磁测深(MT)的观测数据易受到由近地表小尺度非均匀体或地形起伏引起的电流型畸变干扰,消除或压制这种干扰对获取可靠的深部电性结构至关重要.当区域结构为二维时,电流型畸变可采用张量分解等方法予以消除或压制.当区域结构为三维时,畸变问题更加复杂和严重,传统张量分解方法往往效果不佳或无效,严重地制约了MT三维反演技术的实用性.对此,本文提出一种考虑电流型畸变的MT三维反演算法,将完整的电流型畸变参数引入到目标函数,并采用非线性共轭梯度法与电阻率参数同时反演,从而达到压制畸变的目的.该算法有两个关键点:一是通过分析实测数据所遭受畸变的分布特征,在目标函数中对其进行有效约束;二是在迭代过程中,通过自适应地调整双正则化因子保障算法的稳定和效率.理论模型测试结果显示,常规三维反演算法不能合理解释数据中的畸变成分,而只能通过引入虚假异常体强制地拟合受畸变数据,从而造成电阻率模型严重失真.与之相比,本文算法能够在反演中自动求解各测点所受到的畸变,获得更接近真实的电阻率模型.     

Analytical investigation of the exact groundwater divide between rivers beyond the Dupuit–Forchheimer approximation

The groundwater divide is a key feature of river basins and significantly influenced by subsurface hydrological processes. For an unconfined aquifer between two parallel rivers or ditches, it has long been defined as the top of the water table based on the Dupuit–Forchheimer approximation. However, the exact groundwater divide is subject to the interface between two local flow systems transporting groundwater to rivers from the infiltration recharge. This study contributes a new analytical model for two-dimensional groundwater flow between rivers of different water levels. The flownet is delineated in the model to identify groundwater flow systems and the exact groundwater divide. Formulas with two dimensionless parameters are derived to determine the distributed hydraulic head, the top of the water table and the groundwater divide. The locations of the groundwater divide and the top of the water table are not the same. The distance between them in horizontal can reach up to 8.9% of the distance between rivers. Numerical verifications indicate that simplifications in the analytical model do not significantly cause misestimates in the location of the groundwater divide. In contrast, the Dupuit–Forchheimer approximation yields an incorrect water table shape. The new analytical model is applied to investigate groundwater divides in the Loess Plateau, China, with a Monte Carlo simulation process taking into account the uncertainties in the parameters.     

Predicting river water temperatures using the equilibrium temperature concept with application on Miramichi River catchments (New Brunswick,Canada)

Water temperature influences most of the physical, chemical and biological properties of rivers. It plays an important role in the distribution of fish and the growth rates of many aquatic organisms. Therefore, a better understanding of the thermal regime of rivers is essential for the management of important fisheries resources. This study deals with the modelling of river water temperature using a new and simplified model based on the equilibrium temperature concept. The equilibrium temperature concept is an approach where the net heat flux at the water surface can be expressed by a simple equation with fewer meteorological parameters than required with traditional models. This new water temperature model was applied on two watercourses of different size and thermal characteristics, but within a similar meteorological region, i.e., the Little Southwest Miramichi River and Catamaran Brook (New Brunswick, Canada). A study of the long‐term thermal characteristics of these two rivers revealed that the greatest differences in water temperatures occurred during mid‐summer peak temperatures. Data from 1992 to 1994 were used for the model calibration, while data from 1995 to 1999 were used for the model validation. Results showed a slightly better agreement between observed and predicted water temperatures for Catamaran Brook during the calibration period, with a root‐mean‐square error (RMSE) of 1·10 °C (Nash coefficient, NTD = 0·95) compared to 1·45 °C for the Little Southwest Miramichi River (NTD = 0·94). During the validation period, RMSEs were calculated at 1·31 °C for Catamaran Brook and 1·55 °C for the Little Southwest Miramichi River. Poorer model performances were generally observed early in the season (e.g., spring) for both rivers due to the influence of snowmelt conditions, while late summer to autumn modelling performances showed better results. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Modelling hydrological connectivity of tropical floodplain wetlands via a combined natural and artificial stream network

The ecological condition and biodiversity values of floodplain wetlands are highly dependent on the hydrological connectivity of wetlands to adjacent rivers. This paper describes a method for quantifying connectivity between floodplain wetlands and the main rivers in a wet tropical catchment of northern Australia. We used a one‐dimensional hydrodynamic model to simulate time‐varying water depths across the stream network (i.e. rivers, streams and man‐made drains). The timing and duration of connectivity of seven wetlands (four natural and three artificial) with the two main rivers in the catchment were then calculated for different hydrological conditions. Location and areal extent of the wetlands and the stream network were identified using high‐resolution laser altimetry, and these data formed key inputs to the hydrodynamic model. The model was calibrated using measured water depths and discharges across the floodplain. An algorithm was developed to identify contiguous water bodies at daily time steps, and this gave the temporal history of connection and disconnection between wetlands and the rivers. Simulation results show that connectivity of individual wetlands to both rivers varies from 26 to 365 days during an average hydrological condition. Location, especially proximity to a main river, and wetland type (natural stream or artificial drain) were identified as key factors influencing these levels of connectivity. Some natural wetlands maintain connection with the river for most or all of the year, whereas the connectivity of some artificial wetlands varies from 26 to 36 days according to their patterns of network connection to adjacent rivers – a result that has important implications for the accessibility of these types of wetland to aquatic biota. Using readily available river gauge data, we also show how connectivity modelling can be used to identify periods when connectivity has fallen below critical thresholds for fish movement. These connectivity patterns within the floodplain network are central to the setting of river flows that will meet environmental requirements for biota that use floodplain wetlands during their life history. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.