Date of minimum of the “protracted” solar cycle 23

We offer an interpretation of the now widely discussed protracted onset of the epoch of solar activity minimum after cycle 23. The interpretation appeals to the Gnevyshev-Ohl rule, but in the context of a new statistical quantity-the product of the cycle amplitude by its duration. Considering this quantity, which has the same physical meaning as that of the integrated characteristic used by Gnevyshev and Ohl, yields a probable estimate for the onset of the minimum of the current cycle in the interval 2009.0–2012.4.     

An Analysis of the Sunspot Groups and Flares of Solar Cycle 23

Designing a statistical solar flare forecasting technique can benefit greatly from knowledge of the flare frequency of occurrence with respect to sunspot groups. This study analyzed sunspot groups and Hα and X-ray flares reported for the period 1997 – 2007. Annual catalogs were constructed, listing the days that numbered sunspot groups were observed (designated sunspot group-days, SSG-Ds) and for each day a record for each associated Hα flare of importance category one or greater and normal or bright brightness and for each X-ray flare of intensity C 5 or higher. The catalogs were then analyzed to produce frequency distributions of SSG-Ds by year, sunspot group class, likelihood of producing at least one flare overall and by sunspot group class, and frequency of occurrence of numbers of flares per day and flare intensity category. Only 3% of SSG-Ds produced a substantial Hα flare and 7% had a significant X-ray flare. We found that mature, complex sunspot groups were more likely than simple sunspot groups to produce a flare, but the latter were more prevalent than the former. More than half of the SSG-Ds with flares had a maximum intensity flare greater than the lowest category (C-class of intensity five and higher). The fact that certain sunspot group classes had flaring probabilities significantly higher than the combined probabilities of the intensity categories when all SSG-Ds were considered suggest that it might be best to first predict the flaring probability. For sunspot groups found likely to flare, a separate diagnosis of maximum flare intensity category appears feasible.     

Heliospheric modulation of cosmic rays in solar cycles 19–23

The previously developed basic theory of the heliospheric modulation of high-energy cosmic rays is generalized to lower energies. Comparison of the theory with the results of long-term observations of cosmic rays in the stratosphere carried out by the group from the Lebedev Institute of Physics inMoscow andMurmansk shows satisfactory agreement. The cosmic rays are shown to behave quite differently when even and odd solar cycles alternate. Possible causes of the anomalously high cosmic-ray intensity recorded during the last solar activity minimum are discussed.     

Verification of a Similar Cycle Prediction for the Ascending and Peak Phases of Solar Cycle 23

Reviews of long-term predictions of solar cycles have shown that a precise prediction with a lead time of 2 years or more of a solar cycle remains an unsolved problem. We used a simple method, the method of similar cycles, to make long-term predictions of not only the maximum amplitude but also the smoothed monthly mean sunspot number for every month of Solar Cycle 23. We verify and compare our prediction with the latest available observational results.     

Predicting monthly sunspot numbers of solar cycle 23 by the method of “similar cycles”

We briefly describe the concept and method of “similar cycles” to be used in sunspot prediction. We have checked on the reliability of this method and made the comparison of the predictions and observations for the 23rd solar activity cycle.     

Differential Rotation of Strong Magnetic Flux During Solar Cycles 21 – 23

In the present investigation we measure the differential rotation of strong magnetic flux during solar cycles 21 – 23 with the method of wavelet transforms. We find that the cycle-averaged synodic rotation rate of strong magnetic flux can be written as ω=13.47−2.58sin ² θ or ω=13.45−2.06sin ² θ−1.37sin ⁴ θ, where θ is the latitude. They agree well with the results derived from sunspots. A north–south asymmetry of the rotation rate is found at high latitudes (28°<θ<40°). The strong flux in the southern hemisphere rotates faster than that in the northern hemisphere by 0.2 deg day⁻¹. The asymmetry continued for cycles 21 – 23 and may be a secular property.     

The height stratification of solar magnetic fields in cycles 21–23

The radial component of the solar magnetic field, Br, was calculated in the potential approximation in the height range from 1 to 2.5 solar radii, Ro. According to these data, synoptic maps of the magnetic field for solar cycles 21–23 were constructed. For each 10-degree latitudinal zone, the proportion of its area, S _+field, that was occupied by the “+” field in each rotation was found. In the entire latitudinal zone, the radial component of the field is assumed to be positive if S_+field ≥ 80% and negative if S _+field ≤ 20%. The field proved to be virtually unipolar at the level of the photosphere (R = Ro) during most of the cycle, from the poles to the north and south latitude ≈60°. In the vicinity of minimums between cycles 21 and 22, as well as cycles 22 and 23, for a few rotations of the Sun, the field was almost unipolar within the range of latitudes (?40°)-90°. At R = 2.5 Ro, for most of each cycle, the field was unipolar in the range of latitudes (?20°-(-90°)) and (20°–90°). According to our interpretation, the shift of the polar-field boundary to the equator with height reflects superradial expansion of open magnetic flux tubes from the polar coronal holes. It was found that the reversal of the polar fields began with 1–2 rotations and ended from 2 to 14 solar rotations earlier at great heights than at the surface of the Sun. This indicates that the reversal of the large-scale field occurs first and then that of the small-scale one. In the study of the sectoral structure of the magnetic field at different heights it was found that the boundaries that rotate with a period of less than the Carrington revolution extend to greater heights than the boundaries with a Carrington or longer period. We assume that the boundaries of the first type are formed by the large-scale structures of the magnetic field and the boundaries of the second type are determined by the active regions.     

Automated detection of EUV Polar Coronal Holes during Solar Cycle 23

A new method for automated detection of polar coronal holes is presented. This method, called perimeter tracing, uses a series of 171, 195, and 304 Å full disk images from the Extreme ultraviolet Imaging Telescope (EIT) on SOHO over solar cycle 23 to measure the perimeter of polar coronal holes as they appear on the limbs. Perimeter tracing minimizes line-of-sight obscurations caused by the emitting plasma of the various wavelengths by taking measurements at the solar limb. Perimeter tracing also allows for the polar rotation period to emerge organically from the data as 33 days. We have called this the Harvey rotation rate and count Harvey rotations starting 4 January 1900. From the measured perimeter, we are then able to fit a curve to the data and derive an area within the line of best fit. We observe the area of the northern polar hole area in 1996, at the beginning of solar cycle 23, to be about 4.2% of the total solar surface area and about 3.6% in 2007. The area of the southern polar hole is observed to be about 4.0% in 1996 and about 3.4% in 2007. Thus, both the north and south polar hole areas are no more than 15% smaller now than they were at the beginning of cycle 23. This compares to the polar magnetic field measured to be about 40% less now than it was a cycle ago.     

Statistical characteristics of large sunspots in solar activity cycles 17–23

Integral and differential distributions of sunspot diameters are studied for the last seven 11-year cycles of solar activity. Data of the Greenwich catalogue, Pulkovo’s database, and the “Solniechnyie Dannyie” bulletin are used. We found that the average index of integral distribution α is 6.0 for the diameters from 50 to 90 Mm and independent of the Wolf’s numbers, but it depends on a cycle phase in the majority of cycles (four of seven), i.e., it is higher during the ascending phase, of intermediate value during the maximum phase and minimum during the declining phase. Cycles 17, 18, and 22 behave differently: the index α is either invariable with phase or the variations differ from the above ones. It turned out that cycles 17 and 18 are peculiar by sunspot diameters, i.e., sunspots of up to 140–180 Mm in diameter, the largest over the last 80 years, have been observed. Three assumptions concerning the nature of these gigantic sunspots have been proposed: (a) these sunspots occur due to changes in differential rotation of the sun, (b) these sunspots are a certain independent statistical assembly formed in a sporadic discrete region of the convective zone, and (c) these sunspots are surface “fragments” of the relict magnetic field of the solar nucleus.     

Three Super Active Regions in the Descending Phase of Solar Cycle 23

We analyze the magnetic configurations of three super active regions, NOAA 10484, 10486 and 10488, observed by the Huairou Multi-Channel Solar Telescope (MCST) from 2003 October 18 to November 4. Many energetic phenomena, such as flares (including a X-28 flare) and coronal mass ejections (CMEs), occurred during this period. We think that strong shear and fast emergence of magnetic flux are the main causes of these events. The question is also of great interest why these dramatic eruptions occurred so close together in the descending phase of the solar cycle.     

Solar modulation of galactic cosmic rays during 19–23 solar cycles

We make a detailed analysis of cross-correlation and time-lag between monthly data of galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) intensity and different solar activity indices (e.g., sunspot number, sunspot area, green coronal Fe line and 10.7 cm solar radio flux) during 19–23 solar cycles. GCRs time-series data from Kiel neutron monitor station and solar data from the last 50 years period, covering five solar cycles (19–23), and alternating solar polarity states (i.e., five A < 0 and four A > 0) have been investigated. We find a clear asymmetry in the cross-correlation between GCRs and solar activity indicators for both odd and even-numbered solar cycles. The time-lags between GCRs and solar parameters are found different in different solar cycles as well as in the opposite polarity states (A < 0 and A > 0) within the same solar cycle. Possible explanations of the observed results are discussed in light of modulation models, including drift effects.     

On the cyclicity of solar magnetic fields during cycles 21–23

The cyclicity of weak local and strong large-scale components of the low-latitude solar magnetic field during the last three cycles of solar activity is studied using the average monthly values for the total area of sunspots and general magnetic field of the sun as a star. A local decrease in the value of magnetic flux is found for both components of the magnetic field in the phase of growing solar activity. This decrease coincides in time with the intervals of monopolarity for the polar magnetic field of the sun.     

Verification of Short-Term Predictions of Solar Soft X-ray Bursts for the Maximum Phase （2000-2001） of Solar Cycle 23

We present a verification of the short-term predictions of solar Xray bursts for the maximum phase (2000-2001) of Solar Cycle 23, issued by two prediction centers. The results are that the rate of correct predictions is about equal for RWC-China and WWA; the rate of too high predictions is greater for RWC-China than for WWA, while the rate of too low predictions is smaller for RWC-China than for WWA.     

North–south asymmetry of different solar activity features during solar cycle 23

A study on north–south (N–S) asymmetry of different solar activity features (DSAF) such as solar proton events, solar active prominences [total, low (?40°) and high (?50°) latitudes], Hα flare indices, soft X-ray flares, monthly mean sunspot areas and monthly mean sunspot numbers carried out from May 1996 to October 2008. Study shows a southern dominance of DSAF during this period. During the rising phase of the cycle 23 the number of DSAF approximately equals on both, the northern and the southern hemispheres. But these activities tend to shift from northern to southern hemisphere during the period 1998–1999. The statistical significance of the asymmetry time series using a χ²-test of goodness of fit indicates that in most of the cases the asymmetry is highly significant, meaning thereby that the asymmetry is a real feature in the N–S distribution of DSAF.     

Asymmetric behavior of different solar activity features over solar cycles 20–23

This paper presents the study of normalized north–south asymmetry, cumulative normalized north–south asymmetry and cumulative difference indices of sunspot areas, solar active prominences (at total, low (?40°) and high (?50°) latitudes) and Hα solar flares from 1964 to 2008 spanning the solar cycles 20–23. Three different statistical methods are used to obtain the asymmetric behavior of different solar activity features. Hemispherical distribution of activity features shows the dominance of activities in northern hemisphere for solar cycle 20 and in southern hemisphere for solar cycles 21–23 excluding solar active prominences at high latitudes. Cumulative difference index of solar activity features in each solar cycle is observed at the maximum of the respective solar cycle suggesting a cyclic behavior of approximately one solar cycle length. Asymmetric behavior of all activity features except solar active prominences at high latitudes hints at the long term periodic trend of eight solar cycles. North–south asymmetries of SAP (H) express the specific behavior of solar activity at high solar latitudes and its behavior in long-time scale is distinctly opposite to those of other activity features. Our results show that in most cases the asymmetry is statistically highly significant meaning thereby that the asymmetries are real features in the N–S distribution of solar activity features.     

Some Characteristics of the Ionospheric Behavior During the Solar Cycle 23 – 24 Minimum

The Solar Cycle 23?–?24 minimum has been considered unusually deep and complex. In this article we study the ionospheric behavior during this minimum, and we have found that, although observable, the ionosphere response is minor and marginally exceeds the range of normal geophysical variability of the system. Two main ionospheric parameters have been studied: vertical TEC (vTEC, total electron content) and NmF2 (peak concentration of the F region). While vTEC showed a consistent modest decrease of the mean value, NmF2 behavior was less clear, with instances where the mean value for the minimum 23?–?24 was even higher that for the minimum 22?–?23. More extensive work is required to gain a better understanding of the ionospheric behavior under conditions similar to those presented in the last minimum.     

Did Predictions of the Maximum Sunspot Number for Solar Cycle 23 Come True?

For solar cycle 23, the maximum sunspot number was predicted by several workers, and the range was very wide, 80–210. Cycle 23 started in 1996 and seems to have peaked in 2000, with a smoothed sunspot number maximum of 122. From about 20 predictions, 8 were within 122±20. There is an indication that a long-term oscillation of 80–100 years may be operative and might have peaked near cycle 20 (1970), and sunspot maxima in cycles in the near future may be smaller and smaller for the next 50 years or so and rebound thereafter in the next 50 years or so.     

Organization of Energetic Particles by the Solar Wind Structure During the Declining to Minimum Phase of Solar Cycle 23

We investigate the organization of the low energy energetic particles (≤1 MeV) by solar wind structures, in particular corotating interaction regions (CIRs) and shocks driven by interplanetary coronal mass ejections, during the declining-to-minimum phase of Solar Cycle 23 from Carrington rotation 1999 to 2088 (January 2003 to October 2009). Because CIR-associated particles are very prominent during the solar minimum, the unusually long solar minimum period of this current cycle provides an opportunity to examine the overall organization of CIR energetic particles for a much longer period than during any other minimum since the dawn of the Space Age. We find that the particle enhancements associated with CIRs this minimum period recurred for many solar rotations, up to 30 at times, due to several high-speed solar wind streams that persisted. However, very few significant CIR-related energetic particle enhancements were observed towards the end of our study period, reflecting the overall weak high-speed streams that occurred at this time. We also contrast the solar minimum observations with the declining phase when a number of solar energetic particle events occurred, producing a mixed particle population. In addition, we compare the observations from this minimum period with those from the previous solar cycle. One of the main differences we find is the shorter recurrence rate of the high-speed solar wind streams (～10 solar rotations) and the related CIR energetic particle enhancements for the Solar Cycle 22 minimum period. Overall our study provides insight into the coexistence of different populations of energetic particles, as well as an overview of the large-scale organization of the energetic particle populations approaching the beginning of Solar Cycle 24.     

在PDP-11/23计算机上实现自动选星及其资料处理

本文介绍用电子计算机进行选星和资料归算的原理以及软件设计方案,并给出软件设计的主要框图。     

A Study of the [OII]λ3727/Hα Flux Ratio of Emission Line Galaxies

With the sample of 10⁵ emission line galaxies selected from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey Data Release 4 (SDSS DR4), we have investigated the relations of the [O_II]λ3727/H_α flux ratio with the dust extinction, the ionization state of interstellar gas and the metal abundance of galaxies. It is found that the dust extinction correction has a significant effect on the [O_II]λ3727/H_α flux ratio. Before and after the dust distinction correction is made, the mean [O_II]λ3727/H_α flux ratios are 0.48 and 0.89, respectively. After the dust extinction is corrected, the dispersion of the distribution of F([O_II]λ3727) as a function of F(H_α) is obviously reduced. The [O_II]λ3727/H_α flux ratio of metal-poor galaxies decreases with the increasing ionization degree of interstellar gas, but this relation does not exist in metal-rich galaxies. Besides, it is found that the [O_II]λ3727/H_α flux ratio is correlated with the metal abundance. When 12 + lg(O/H) > 8.5, the [O_II]λ3727/H_α flux ratio decreases with the increasing metal abundance; for the galaxies of 12 + lg(O/H) > 8.5, the spectral flux ratio correlates positively with the metal abundance. Finally, by using the parameters of gas ionization degree and metal abundances of galaxies, the formulae for calculating the [O_II]λ3727/H_α flux ratios of different types of galaxies are given. With the [O_II]λ3727/H_α flux ratio given by these formulae, the star formation rate can be derived by using the [O_II]λ3727-line flux, for the galaxies of the redshift z > 0.4, such as the large number of galaxies to be observed by the LAMOST telescope.