Delay times between geoeffective solar disturbances and geomagnetic indices

We have examined delay times between solar disturbances (X-ray flares and DSFs) and storm sudden commencements(SSC) as well as between SSC and major geomagnetic storms. To carry out cross-correlation analysis of these point series data, we have introduced a new correlation measure which is defined by the ratio of the median value of the absolute residual differences between two sets of time series data to the one determined from hypothetical target series. We have confirmed from the correlation analyses that (1) the most probable traveling time of a solar disturbance from the Sun to the Earth is estimated to be about 2 days for a disturbance associated with major (X and M class) solar flares, and about 3 days for a disturbance associated with DSFs, (2) long-duration flares are better correlated with SSCs than short-duration flares, (3) travelling times of solar disturbances strongly depend on the heliolongitude where they originate, and (4) solar disturbances associated with flares and DSFs at the western limb can hardly reach the Earth. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Type II solar radio events observed in the interplanetary medium

Fifteen type II solar radio events have been identified in the 2 MHz to 30 kHz frequency range by the radio astronomy experiment on the ISEE-3 satellite over the period from September 1978 to December 1979. These data provide the most comprehensive sample of type II radio bursts hitherto observed at kilometer wavelengths. Dynamic spectra of a number of events are presented. Where possible, the 15 events have been associated with an initiating flare, ground-based radio data, the passage of a shock at the spacecraft and the sudden commencement of a geomagnetic storm. The general characteristics of kilometric type II bursts are discussed.Research Associate, University of Maryland, U.S.A.     

Electrons > 40 ke V and protons > 500 ke V of solar origin

Following many solar flares, electrons with kinetic energy > 40 keV appear in interplanetary space. There are two classes of such electrons: prompt electrons which arrive within an hour of the flare and delayed electrons which arrive about a day following the flare. The promptly arriving electrons are found to be of two types: Simple (S) events are associated with solar flares which occur in the absence of large area Type I radio noise storm and the complex (C) events resulting from flares beneath these large radio noise regions. The propagation of energetic solar flare electrons to the earth is best described in terms of cones of propagation. In the S-events the cones have about 30° opening angle whereas in the C-type events the cones open to about 90° full angle. Outside the boundaries of these cones the electron flux is much reduced. Within the cones there is a net streaming of the electrons away from the sun. Solar flare electron fluxes do not show filamentary structure even at times when protons from the same flare do. This suggests that the electrons are injected into the interplanetary field from regions distinct from the proton injection region. The delayed solar electron events are accompanied by large fluxes of protons > 500 keV. These events are sometimes closely related to a sudden commencement.     

The association of solar radio bursts with auroral streams

Slow drift (Type II) radio bursts from the sun are believed to be caused by a primary disturbance moving outward through the solar atmosphere with a velocity of about 1000 km/sec. Analysis of the 2 years, 1956 October 1 through 1958 September 30, over the sunspot maximum shows that 45 per cent of these bursts are associated with the subsequent occurrence of terrestrial auroræ and magnetic storms. The mean delay between the radio bursts and the terrestrial disturbances is 33 hr, which is in good accord with the velocity for the disturbing source as deduced from the radio data. Investigation of the properties of the individual slow drift bursts and their association with other solar radio and optical phenomena reveals no completely conclusive criteria to explain why only 45 per cent of the bursts are geomagnetically important. The geomagnetic effects are enhanced, however, if the bursts occur near the equinoxes and if they are accompanied by a flare o'f importance 2 or 3, or by continuum (Type IV) radiation.

In the reverse association, with radio data available for an average 14 hr daily, it is shown that at least 60 per cent of magnetic storms are preceded, within 4 days, by a slow drift burst.     

Energetic electrons associated with solar flares and their relation to type I noise activity

The generation of energetic electrons is always associated with the solar flares which occur within the sunspot groups that are highly active in emitting type I noise storms. The number of the solar flares which are associated with the distinct electron events observed at the earth tends to increase in association with the westward movement of these active groups. This tendency is not contradictory to the close association between electron producing solar flares and type I active regions if we take into account the limited directivity of type I noise storms associated with these sunspot groups.The acceleration of the energetic electrons associated with solar flares seems to be closely related to the type I active regions where the enormous numbers of suprathermal electrons exist and play a role in generating these radio noise storms.NAS-NRC Associate with NASA.     

The solar flares of February 1986 and the ensuing intense geomagnetic storm

A very intense geomagnetic storm, the largest observed in 26 years, was observed in early February 1986 having just been preceded by a series of six solar flares during the period 3–7 February. The storm and its antecedent flares are currently a subject of great interest because of the unusually large magnitude of the various geomagnetic effects that obtained. The fact that the flares were moderate to large in soft X-ray intensity, but much smaller than the largest that the Sun is capable of producing, coupled with the fact that these events occurred near the minimum of the current solar activity cycle, adds to the uniqueness of the overall episode.This paper describes the special circumstances surrounding these events and offers an interpretation of the cause and effect relationships through a numerical simulation of the dynamical evolutionary processes that may have occurred in interplanetary space.     

The solar flares of February 1986 and the ensuing intense geomagnetic storm

A very intense geomagnetic storm, the largest observed in 26 years, was observed in early February 1986 having just been preceded by a series of six solar flares during the period 3–7 February. The storm and its antecedent flares are currently a subject of great interest because of the unusually large magnitude of the various geomagnetic effects that obtained. The fact that the flares were moderate to large in soft X-ray intensity, but much smaller than the largest that the Sun is capable of producing, coupled with the fact that these events occurred near the minimum of the current solar activity cycle, adds to the uniqueness of the overall episode. This paper describes the special circumstances surrounding these events and offers an interpretation of the cause and effect relationships through a numerical simulation of the dynamical evolutionary processes that may have occurred in interplanetary space.     

Survey on Solar X-ray Flares and Associated Coherent Radio Emissions

The radio emission during 201 selected X-ray solar flares was surveyed from 100 MHz to 4 GHz with the Phoenix-2 spectrometer of ETH Zürich. The selection includes all RHESSI flares larger than C5.0 jointly observed from launch until June 30, 2003. Detailed association rates of radio emission during X-ray flares are reported. In the decimeter wavelength range, type III bursts and the genuinely decimetric emissions (pulsations, continua, and narrowband spikes) were found equally frequently. Both occur predominantly in the peak phase of hard X-ray (HXR) emission, but are less in tune with HXRs than the high-frequency continuum exceeding 4 GHz, attributed to gyrosynchrotron radiation. In 10% of the HXR flares, an intense radiation of the above genuine decimetric types followed in the decay phase or later. Classic meter-wave type III bursts are associated in 33% of all HXR flares, but only in 4% are they the exclusive radio emission. Noise storms were the only radio emission in 5% of the HXR flares, some of them with extended duration. Despite the spatial association (same active region), the noise storm variations are found to be only loosely correlated in time with the X-ray flux. In a surprising 17% of the HXR flares, no coherent radio emission was found in the extremely broad band surveyed. The association but loose correlation between HXR and coherent radio emission is interpreted by multiple reconnection sites connected by common field lines.     

The solar particle events of May 23 and May 28, 1967

McMath plage region 8818 passed over the visible solar disk on May 17–31, 1967. It was very active from its first appearance on the Eastern limb, several times producing bright optical flares and hard X-ray emission, accompanied by intense type II, type IV and centimeter radio bursts. Nevertheless, no solar particles could be detected near the earth until the evening of May 23, when three bright flares were observed in close succession at 25°–28° E. During the following build-up of the solar particle flux over 36 hours, the galactic cosmic ray flux > 1 GeV decreased gradually by about 5%. The flux of solar particles decreased in two steps on May 25, both accompanied by decreases in the equatorial geomagnetic field. These field depressions are attributed to storm plasma ejected from the parent flare of the May 23 particle event. The propagation of solar particles from May 23 on thus appears to be strongly affected by storm plasma from the parent flare of the May 23 event, without any indications of solar particles being trapped in that plasma.A later particle event early on May 28 was also associated with a bright flare in McMath region 8818, at 33° W. This event displayed a rapid build-up, with electrons arriving first, and an exponential decay. A smooth proton peak, 20 min wide, was detected on May 30 closely associated with an SSC attributed to plasma ejection from the parent flare of the May 28 event.Between the geomagnetic storms beginning on May 25 and May 30 an anomalous daily variation was observed in the cosmic ray flux >1 GeV, the time of maximum falling 7–10 hours earlier than normal. Storm time increases in the flux of galactic cosmic rays were seen on May 26 when the equatorial geomagnetic field was depressed by more than 400 . Low latitude auroras were also observed during that time.On leave from the University of Uppsala, Sweden.     

The solar origin of geomagnetic storms

A recent study of associations between geomagnetic storms and solar phenomena has found more associations with solar flares than with coronal holes (Garcia and Dryer, 1987). This disagrees with observations of earthbound transients obtained from IPS imaging which showed that nearly all geomagnetically effective disturbances originated from coronal holes at low latitudes. The discrepancy has arisen because the former study failed to take into account the large angular extent of transient eruptions from coronal holes. It is highly probable that the intense geomagnetic storm of February 1986, discussed by Garcia and Dryer, was caused by a low-latitude coronal hole which was present at that time. This answers their question concerning moderately strong flares that apparently cause major storms, while much larger flares often do not; flares may sometimes be associated with eruptions from coronal holes, but only as peripheral events.     

太阳米波和分米波Ⅱ型、Ⅲ型射电暴及其精细结构观测研究进展

太阳米波和分米波的射电观测是对太阳爆发过程中耀斑和日冕物质抛射现象研究的重要观测手段。米波和分米波的太阳射电暴以相干等离子体辐射为主导,表现出在时域和频域的多样性和复杂性。其中Ⅱ型射电暴是激波在日冕中运动引起电磁波辐射的结果。在Ⅱ型射电暴方面,首先对米波Ⅱ型射电暴的激波起源问题和米波Ⅱ型射电暴与行星际Ⅱ型射电暴的关系问题进行了讨论;其次,结合Lin-Forbes太阳爆发理论模型对Ⅱ型射电暴的开始时间和起始频率进行讨论:最后,对Ⅱ型射电暴信号中包含的两种射电精细结构,Herringbone结构(即鱼骨结构)和与激波相关的Ⅲ型射电暴也分别进行了讨论。Ⅲ型射电暴是高能电子束在日冕中运动产生电磁波辐射的结果。在Ⅲ型射电暴方面,首先介绍了利用Ⅲ型射电暴对日冕磁场位形和等离子体密度进行研究的具体方法;其次,对利用Ⅲ型射电暴测量日冕温度的最新理论进行介绍;最后,对Ⅲ型射电暴和Ⅱ型射电暴的时间关系、Ⅲ型射电暴和粒子加速以及Ⅲ型射电暴信号中包含的射电精细结构(例如斑马纹、纤维爆发及尖峰辐射)等问题进行讨论并介绍有关的最新研究进展。     

The 2015 Summer Solstice Storm: One of the Major Geomagnetic Storms of Solar Cycle 24 Observed at Ground Level

We report on the 22?–?23 June 2015 geomagnetic storm that occurred at the summer solstice. There have been fewer intense geomagnetic storms during the current solar cycle, Solar Cycle 24, than in the previous cycle. This situation changed after mid-June 2015, when one of the largest solar active regions (AR 12371) of Solar Cycle 24 that was located close to the central meridian, produced several coronal mass ejections (CMEs) associated with M-class flares. The impact of these CMEs on the Earth’s magnetosphere resulted in a moderate to severe G4-class geomagnetic storm on 22?–?23 June 2015 and a G2 (moderate) geomagnetic storm on 24 June. The G4 solstice storm was the second largest (so far) geomagnetic storm of Cycle 24. We highlight the ground-level observations made with the New-Tupi, Muonca, and the CARPET El Leoncito cosmic-ray detectors that are located within the South Atlantic Anomaly (SAA) region. These observations are studied in correlation with data obtained by space-borne detectors (ACE, GOES, SDO, and SOHO) and other ground-based experiments. The CME designations are taken from the Computer Aided CME Tracking (CACTus) automated catalog. As expected, Forbush decreases (FD) associated with the passing CMEs were recorded by these detectors. We note a peculiar feature linked to a severe geomagnetic storm event. The 21 June 2015 CME 0091 (CACTus CME catalog number) was likely associated with the 22 June summer solstice FD event. The angular width of CME 0091 was very narrow and measured \({\sim}\, 56^{\circ }\) degrees seen from Earth. In most cases, only CME halos and partial halos lead to severe geomagnetic storms. We perform a cross-check analysis of the FD events detected during the rise phase of Solar Cycle 24, the geomagnetic parameters, and the CACTus CME catalog. Our study suggests that narrow angular-width CMEs that erupt in a westward direction from the Sun–Earth line can lead to moderate and severe geomagnetic storms. We also report on the strong solar proton radiation storm that began on 21 June. We did not find a signal from this SEP at ground level. The details of these observations are presented.     

Opacity effects and shock-in-jet modelling of low-level activity in Cygnus X-3

We present simultaneous dual-frequency radio observations of Cygnus X-3 during a phase of low-level activity. We constrain the minimum variability time-scale to be 20 min at 43 GHz and 30 min at 15 GHz, implying source sizes of 2–4 au. We detect polarized emission at a level of a few per cent at 43 GHz which varies with the total intensity. The delay of ∼10 min between the peaks of the flares at the two frequencies is seen to decrease with time, and we find that synchrotron self-absorption and free–free absorption by entrained thermal material play a larger role in determining the opacity than absorption in the stellar wind of the companion. A shock-in-jet model gives a good fit to the light curves at all frequencies, demonstrating that this mechanism, which has previously been used to explain the brighter, longer lived giant outbursts in this source, is also applicable to these low-level flaring events. Assembling the data from outbursts spanning over two orders of magnitude in flux density shows evidence for a strong correlation between the peak brightness of an event, and the time-scale and frequency at which this is attained. Brighter flares evolve on longer time-scales and peak at lower frequencies. Analysis of the fitted model parameters suggests that brighter outbursts are due to shocks forming further downstream in the jet, with an increased electron normalization and magnetic field strength both playing a role in setting the strength of the outburst.     

The flare-related depression of the noise storm on May 5, 1978

Though a number of flares is capable to trigger the emission of a noise storm, in some other rare cases flares may also lead to a depression of the radio flux of a pre-existing noise storm. Details of this phenomenon are demonstrated at the flare of May 5, 1978 which can be regarded as an instructive example. Using extensive observations during the solar cycle No. 20 a number of further noise storm depressions could be detected whereas chance coincidences with flares could be ruled out by a statistical treatment. Possible mechanisms related to the noise storm depression effect are briefly discussed.     

Statistical Analysis of Solar Events Associated with Storm Sudden Commencements over One Year of Solar Maximum During Cycle 23: Propagation from the Sun to the Earth and Effects

Taking the 32 storm sudden commencements (SSCs) listed by the International Service of Geomagnetic Indices (ISGI) of the Observatory de l’Ebre during 2002 (solar activity maximum in Cycle 23) as a starting point, we performed a multi-criterion analysis based on observations (propagation time, velocity comparisons, sense of the magnetic field rotation, radio waves) to associate them with solar sources, identified their effects in the interplanetary medium, and looked at the response of the terrestrial ionized and neutral environment. We find that 28 SSCs can be related to 44 coronal mass ejections (CMEs), 15 with a unique CME and 13 with a series of multiple CMEs, among which 19 (68%) involved halo CMEs. Twelve of the 19 fastest CMEs with speeds greater than 1000 km?s^?1 are halo CMEs. For the 44 CMEs, including 21 halo CMEs, the corresponding X-ray flare classes are: 3 X-class, 19 M-class, and 22 C-class flares. The probability for an SSC to occur is 75% if the CME is a halo CME. Among the 500, or even more, front-side, non-halo CMEs recorded in 2002, only 23 could be the source of an SSC, i.e. 5%. The complex interactions between two (or more) CMEs and the modification of their trajectories have been examined using joint white-light and multiple-wavelength radio observations. The detection of long-lasting type IV bursts observed at metric–hectometric wavelengths is a very useful criterion for the CME–SSC events association. The events associated with the most depressed Dst values are also associated with type IV radio bursts. The four SSCs associated with a single shock at L1 correspond to four radio events exhibiting characteristics different from type IV radio bursts. The solar-wind structures at L1 after the 32 SSCs are 12 magnetic clouds (MCs), 6 interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) without an MC structure, 4 miscellaneous structures, which cannot unambiguously be classified as ICMEs, 5 corotating or stream interaction regions (CIRs/SIRs), one CIR caused two SSCs, and 4 shock events; note than one CIR caused two SSCs. The 11 MCs listed in 3 or more MC catalogs covering the year 2002 are associated with SSCs. For the three most intense geomagnetic storms (based on Dst minima) related to MCs, we note two sudden increases of the Dst, at the arrival of the sheath and the arrival of the MC itself. In terms of geoeffectiveness, the relation between the CME speed and the magnetic-storm intensity, as characterized using the Dst magnetic index, is very complex, but generally CMEs with velocities at the Sun larger than 1000 km?s^?1 have larger probabilities to trigger moderate or intense storms. The most geoeffective events are MCs, since 92% of them trigger moderate or intense storms, followed by ICMEs (33%). At best, CIRs/SIRs only cause weak storms. We show that these geoeffective events (ICMEs or MCs) trigger an increased and combined auroral kilometric radiation (AKR) and non-thermal continuum (NTC) wave activity in the magnetosphere, an enhanced convection in the ionosphere, and a stronger response in the thermosphere. However, this trend does not appear clearly in the coupling functions, which exhibit relatively weak correlations between the solar-wind energy input and the amplitude of various geomagnetic indices, whereas the role of the southward component of the solar-wind magnetic field is confirmed. Some saturation appears for Dst values \(< -100\) nT on the integrated values of the polar and auroral indices.     

Tracking a major interplanetary disturbance

The severe geomagnetic storm which occurred during 27–29 August 1978 was remarkable because it arrived unexpectedly and was not related to a solar flare or long-lived coronal hole. Observations on 900 celestial radio sources show that the storm was associated with a large-scale region causing enhanced interplanetary scintillation which enveloped the Earth at the same time. The disturbance was first detected on 26 August, when the outer boundary had reached a distance of about 0.8 a.u. from the Sun and it was tracked until 30 August. The enhancement was followed by a fast solar wind stream and its shape suggests that it was a compression zone caused by the birth of the stream.     

Major flare effects on the intensity of the green corona and geomagnetic activity

The effects of the solar major flares indicated by the intensive radio bursts, high velocity streams or shock waves, coronal and ionospheric disturbances on the geomagnetic and coronal activities are investigated during the near the maximum phase of 21st solar cycle, in detail. The significant and the weak increases in the level of the geomagnetic and coronal activities indices were observed, respectively, after the occurrence of these events.     

IDENTIFICATION OF THE SOLAR SOURCE FOR THE 18 OCTOBER 1995 MAGNETIC CLOUD

It is necessary to identify signatures of solar sources in order to improve predictions of solar-caused geomagnetic activity. This is not a straightforward task as the relationship is not well understood. We apply an algorithm, derived from numerical simulations to identify the solar source of an interplanetary event that was observed by the WIND spacecraft on October 18, 1995 and was followed by a geomagnetic storm. No specific geomagnetic activity had been predicted at Space Weather Operations (SWO) in Boulder, CO, on the basis of earlier solar observations. The algorithm is used to estimate the time and location of the expected solar source of this interplanetary event. A review of solar observations prior to the WIND observations showed that solar activity precursors could be identified. A long-duration-event was seen by GOES in soft X-rays at the same time as a type IV burst was observed in metric radio wavelengths, and a rearrangement of fields was observed by the soft X-ray telescope on the Yohkoh satellite. This suggests that the algorithm is useful for post facto identification of solar sources, and that such combinations of solar activity should be further investigated for use in geomagnetic forecasting.     

The relative importances of solar type iv radio bursts and flare-site magnetic field orientations as predictors of geomagnetic activity

The claim by Pudovkin and his co-workers that the geomagnetic effects of a solar flare are controlled almost exclusively by the direction of the large scale magnetic field at the flare site is in apparent conflict with the well established correlation between flares with type IV radio bursts and subsequent geomagnetic storms. We examine the claims of Pudovkin et al., and show that while the direction of the magnetic field is important in determining the geomagnetic effect of a flare, it is not as important as an accompanying type IV burst.     

Magnetic field of the solar wind

Relationship between the geoefficiency of the solar flares as well as of the active regions passing the central meridian of the Sun and the configuration of the large scale solar magnetic field is studied.It is shown that if the tangential component of the large scale magnetic field at the active region or at the flare region is directed southwards, that region and that flare produce geomagnetic storm. In case when the tangential magnetic field is directed northward, the active region and the flares occurring at that region do not cause any geomagnetic disturbance.An index of the geoefficiency of the solar flares and of the active regions is proposed.